UPDATE5: MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting
UPDATE4 August 4th 11:45PST the Mauna Loa graph (but not data) has changed, see this new post
Back on April 6th of this year I made an observation about the trend in the CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory dropping and possibly “leveling off”.
For that I was roundly criticized by those “in the know” and given the full Bulldog treatment.
[ UPDATE: Lucia has an interesting take on such criticisms ]
Well, it’s happened again. With the release of the July data from Mauna Loa Observatory, a new twist has occurred; this time there’s been a first ever trend reversal of the monthly mean CO2 levels from January to July. Here is the familiar Mauna Loa graph:
Source data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
In the NOAA graph above, note the drop in the first few months of 2008, and the slightly muted rebound afterwards. Clearly something changed and the uncharacteristic drop in CO2 levels has been recorded by the world’s premiere CO2 monitoring station.
By itself, that blip isn’t much news, as there have been similar blips in the past, such as in 2004. But where it really gets interesting and unique is when you compare the seasonal difference, between, January 2008 to July 2008 levels against the rest of the Mauna Loa CO2 going back to 1958.
First let’s look at this year and last year in a magnified portion of the Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data:
Source data via FTP: Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data
Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.
Going back through the data to compare previous January to July values, it has become clear that this is a unique event in the history of the data set. A value lower in July than January has never happened before. Prior to 2008, there has always been a gain from January to July. This is a 6 month “seasonal”period from January 30th to July 31st, when the end of month data is released.
UPDATE 2: to see how far off the recent trendline the July value is, see this scatterplot from Lucia. Lucia has an interesting take
Below is the data table with the January and July values highlighted for your inspection.
What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.
This may signal a change, or this one time event may in fact be that, one time. It may not happen again next year, we simply don’t know. But, it is unique and thought provoking.
UPDATE: Paul Clark of Woodfortrees.org where you can interactively graph a variety of datasets, offered this plot of rate of change:
Click for interactive graph
And Dee Norris offered up this graph from the same graph generator comparing rate of changes against the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the UAH Satellite Temperature data set. It would seem that the ocean solubility could be the largest factor.
It would seem to be a regional effect, which is probably driven by La Nina in the Pacific. The global CO2 trend continues:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.
Data table below:
Data Table:
January and July values shown in bold.
| # Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data | |||
| # | decimal | mean | |
| # | date | ||
| 1958 | 3 | 1958.208 | 315.71 |
| 1958 | 4 | 1958.292 | 317.45 |
| 1958 | 5 | 1958.375 | 317.5 |
| 1958 | 6 | 1958.458 | -99.99 |
| 1958 | 7 | 1958.542 | 315.86 |
| 1958 | 8 | 1958.625 | 314.93 |
| 1958 | 9 | 1958.708 | 313.2 |
| 1958 | 10 | 1958.792 | -99.99 |
| 1958 | 11 | 1958.875 | 313.33 |
| 1958 | 12 | 1958.958 | 314.67 |
| 1959 | 1 | 1959.042 | 315.62 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1959.125 | 316.38 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1959.208 | 316.71 |
| 1959 | 4 | 1959.292 | 317.72 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1959.375 | 318.29 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1959.458 | 318.16 |
| 1959 | 7 | 1959.542 | 316.55 |
| 1959 | 8 | 1959.625 | 314.8 |
| 1959 | 9 | 1959.708 | 313.84 |
| 1959 | 10 | 1959.792 | 313.26 |
| 1959 | 11 | 1959.875 | 314.8 |
| 1959 | 12 | 1959.958 | 315.59 |
| 1960 | 1 | 1960.042 | 316.43 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1960.125 | 316.97 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1960.208 | 317.58 |
| 1960 | 4 | 1960.292 | 319.02 |
| 1960 | 5 | 1960.375 | 320.02 |
| 1960 | 6 | 1960.458 | 319.59 |
| 1960 | 7 | 1960.542 | 318.18 |
| 1960 | 8 | 1960.625 | 315.91 |
| 1960 | 9 | 1960.708 | 314.16 |
| 1960 | 10 | 1960.792 | 313.83 |
| 1960 | 11 | 1960.875 | 315 |
| 1960 | 12 | 1960.958 | 316.19 |
| 1961 | 1 | 1961.042 | 316.93 |
| 1961 | 2 | 1961.125 | 317.7 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1961.208 | 318.54 |
| 1961 | 4 | 1961.292 | 319.48 |
| 1961 | 5 | 1961.375 | 320.58 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1961.458 | 319.77 |
| 1961 | 7 | 1961.542 | 318.58 |
| 1961 | 8 | 1961.625 | 316.79 |
| 1961 | 9 | 1961.708 | 314.8 |
| 1961 | 10 | 1961.792 | 315.38 |
| 1961 | 11 | 1961.875 | 316.1 |
| 1961 | 12 | 1961.958 | 317.01 |
| 1962 | 1 | 1962.042 | 317.94 |
| 1962 | 2 | 1962.125 | 318.55 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1962.208 | 319.68 |
| 1962 | 4 | 1962.292 | 320.63 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1962.375 | 321.01 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1962.458 | 320.55 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1962.542 | 319.58 |
| 1962 | 8 | 1962.625 | 317.4 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1962.708 | 316.26 |
| 1962 | 10 | 1962.792 | 315.42 |
| 1962 | 11 | 1962.875 | 316.69 |
| 1962 | 12 | 1962.958 | 317.7 |
| 1963 | 1 | 1963.042 | 318.74 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1963.125 | 319.08 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1963.208 | 319.86 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1963.292 | 321.39 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1963.375 | 322.24 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1963.458 | 321.47 |
| 1963 | 7 | 1963.542 | 319.74 |
| 1963 | 8 | 1963.625 | 317.77 |
| 1963 | 9 | 1963.708 | 316.21 |
| 1963 | 10 | 1963.792 | 315.99 |
| 1963 | 11 | 1963.875 | 317.12 |
| 1963 | 12 | 1963.958 | 318.31 |
| 1964 | 1 | 1964.042 | 319.57 |
| 1964 | 2 | 1964.125 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1964.208 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1964.292 | -99.99 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1964.375 | 322.24 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1964.458 | 321.89 |
| 1964 | 7 | 1964.542 | 320.44 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1964.625 | 318.7 |
| 1964 | 9 | 1964.708 | 316.7 |
| 1964 | 10 | 1964.792 | 316.79 |
| 1964 | 11 | 1964.875 | 317.79 |
| 1964 | 12 | 1964.958 | 318.71 |
| 1965 | 1 | 1965.042 | 319.44 |
| 1965 | 2 | 1965.125 | 320.44 |
| 1965 | 3 | 1965.208 | 320.89 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1965.292 | 322.13 |
| 1965 | 5 | 1965.375 | 322.16 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1965.458 | 321.87 |
| 1965 | 7 | 1965.542 | 321.39 |
| 1965 | 8 | 1965.625 | 318.8 |
| 1965 | 9 | 1965.708 | 317.81 |
| 1965 | 10 | 1965.792 | 317.3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 1965.875 | 318.87 |
| 1965 | 12 | 1965.958 | 319.42 |
| 1966 | 1 | 1966.042 | 320.62 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1966.125 | 321.59 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1966.208 | 322.39 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1966.292 | 323.87 |
| 1966 | 5 | 1966.375 | 324.01 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1966.458 | 323.75 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1966.542 | 322.4 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1966.625 | 320.37 |
| 1966 | 9 | 1966.708 | 318.64 |
| 1966 | 10 | 1966.792 | 318.1 |
| 1966 | 11 | 1966.875 | 319.78 |
| 1966 | 12 | 1966.958 | 321.08 |
| 1967 | 1 | 1967.042 | 322.06 |
| 1967 | 2 | 1967.125 | 322.5 |
| 1967 | 3 | 1967.208 | 323.04 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1967.292 | 324.42 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1967.375 | 325 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1967.458 | 324.09 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1967.542 | 322.55 |
| 1967 | 8 | 1967.625 | 320.92 |
| 1967 | 9 | 1967.708 | 319.31 |
| 1967 | 10 | 1967.792 | 319.31 |
| 1967 | 11 | 1967.875 | 320.72 |
| 1967 | 12 | 1967.958 | 321.96 |
| 1968 | 1 | 1968.042 | 322.57 |
| 1968 | 2 | 1968.125 | 323.15 |
| 1968 | 3 | 1968.208 | 323.89 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1968.292 | 325.02 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1968.375 | 325.57 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1968.458 | 325.36 |
| 1968 | 7 | 1968.542 | 324.14 |
| 1968 | 8 | 1968.625 | 322.03 |
| 1968 | 9 | 1968.708 | 320.41 |
| 1968 | 10 | 1968.792 | 320.25 |
| 1968 | 11 | 1968.875 | 321.31 |
| 1968 | 12 | 1968.958 | 322.84 |
| 1969 | 1 | 1969.042 | 324 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1969.125 | 324.42 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1969.208 | 325.64 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1969.292 | 326.66 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1969.375 | 327.34 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1969.458 | 326.76 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1969.542 | 325.88 |
| 1969 | 8 | 1969.625 | 323.67 |
| 1969 | 9 | 1969.708 | 322.38 |
| 1969 | 10 | 1969.792 | 321.78 |
| 1969 | 11 | 1969.875 | 322.85 |
| 1969 | 12 | 1969.958 | 324.12 |
| 1970 | 1 | 1970.042 | 325.03 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1970.125 | 325.99 |
| 1970 | 3 | 1970.208 | 326.87 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1970.292 | 328.14 |
| 1970 | 5 | 1970.375 | 328.07 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1970.458 | 327.66 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1970.542 | 326.35 |
| 1970 | 8 | 1970.625 | 324.69 |
| 1970 | 9 | 1970.708 | 323.1 |
| 1970 | 10 | 1970.792 | 323.16 |
| 1970 | 11 | 1970.875 | 323.98 |
| 1970 | 12 | 1970.958 | 325.13 |
| 1971 | 1 | 1971.042 | 326.17 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1971.125 | 326.68 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1971.208 | 327.18 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1971.292 | 327.78 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1971.375 | 328.92 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1971.458 | 328.57 |
| 1971 | 7 | 1971.542 | 327.34 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1971.625 | 325.46 |
| 1971 | 9 | 1971.708 | 323.36 |
| 1971 | 10 | 1971.792 | 323.56 |
| 1971 | 11 | 1971.875 | 324.8 |
| 1971 | 12 | 1971.958 | 326.01 |
| 1972 | 1 | 1972.042 | 326.77 |
| 1972 | 2 | 1972.125 | 327.63 |
| 1972 | 3 | 1972.208 | 327.75 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1972.292 | 329.72 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1972.375 | 330.07 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1972.458 | 329.09 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1972.542 | 328.05 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1972.625 | 326.32 |
| 1972 | 9 | 1972.708 | 324.93 |
| 1972 | 10 | 1972.792 | 325.06 |
| 1972 | 11 | 1972.875 | 326.5 |
| 1972 | 12 | 1972.958 | 327.55 |
| 1973 | 1 | 1973.042 | 328.55 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1973.125 | 329.56 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1973.208 | 330.3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1973.292 | 331.5 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1973.375 | 332.48 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1973.458 | 332.07 |
| 1973 | 7 | 1973.542 | 330.87 |
| 1973 | 8 | 1973.625 | 329.31 |
| 1973 | 9 | 1973.708 | 327.51 |
| 1973 | 10 | 1973.792 | 327.18 |
| 1973 | 11 | 1973.875 | 328.16 |
| 1973 | 12 | 1973.958 | 328.64 |
| 1974 | 1 | 1974.042 | 329.35 |
| 1974 | 2 | 1974.125 | 330.71 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1974.208 | 331.48 |
| 1974 | 4 | 1974.292 | 332.65 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1974.375 | 333.16 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1974.458 | 332.06 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1974.542 | 330.99 |
| 1974 | 8 | 1974.625 | 329.17 |
| 1974 | 9 | 1974.708 | 327.41 |
| 1974 | 10 | 1974.792 | 327.2 |
| 1974 | 11 | 1974.875 | 328.33 |
| 1974 | 12 | 1974.958 | 329.5 |
| 1975 | 1 | 1975.042 | 330.68 |
| 1975 | 2 | 1975.125 | 331.41 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1975.208 | 331.85 |
| 1975 | 4 | 1975.292 | 333.29 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1975.375 | 333.91 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1975.458 | 333.4 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1975.542 | 331.78 |
| 1975 | 8 | 1975.625 | 329.88 |
| 1975 | 9 | 1975.708 | 328.57 |
| 1975 | 10 | 1975.792 | 328.46 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1975.875 | 329.26 |
| 1975 | 12 | 1975.958 | -99.99 |
| 1976 | 1 | 1976.042 | 331.71 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1976.125 | 332.76 |
| 1976 | 3 | 1976.208 | 333.48 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1976.292 | 334.78 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1976.375 | 334.79 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1976.458 | 334.17 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1976.542 | 332.78 |
| 1976 | 8 | 1976.625 | 330.64 |
| 1976 | 9 | 1976.708 | 328.95 |
| 1976 | 10 | 1976.792 | 328.77 |
| 1976 | 11 | 1976.875 | 330.23 |
| 1976 | 12 | 1976.958 | 331.69 |
| 1977 | 1 | 1977.042 | 332.7 |
| 1977 | 2 | 1977.125 | 333.24 |
| 1977 | 3 | 1977.208 | 334.96 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1977.292 | 336.04 |
| 1977 | 5 | 1977.375 | 336.82 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1977.458 | 336.13 |
| 1977 | 7 | 1977.542 | 334.73 |
| 1977 | 8 | 1977.625 | 332.52 |
| 1977 | 9 | 1977.708 | 331.19 |
| 1977 | 10 | 1977.792 | 331.19 |
| 1977 | 11 | 1977.875 | 332.35 |
| 1977 | 12 | 1977.958 | 333.47 |
| 1978 | 1 | 1978.042 | 335.11 |
| 1978 | 2 | 1978.125 | 335.26 |
| 1978 | 3 | 1978.208 | 336.6 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1978.292 | 337.77 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1978.375 | 338 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1978.458 | 337.99 |
| 1978 | 7 | 1978.542 | 336.48 |
| 1978 | 8 | 1978.625 | 334.37 |
| 1978 | 9 | 1978.708 | 332.27 |
| 1978 | 10 | 1978.792 | 332.4 |
| 1978 | 11 | 1978.875 | 333.76 |
| 1978 | 12 | 1978.958 | 334.83 |
| 1979 | 1 | 1979.042 | 336.21 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1979.125 | 336.64 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1979.208 | 338.12 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1979.292 | 339.02 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1979.375 | 339.02 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1979.458 | 339.2 |
| 1979 | 7 | 1979.542 | 337.58 |
| 1979 | 8 | 1979.625 | 335.55 |
| 1979 | 9 | 1979.708 | 333.89 |
| 1979 | 10 | 1979.792 | 334.14 |
| 1979 | 11 | 1979.875 | 335.26 |
| 1979 | 12 | 1979.958 | 336.71 |
| 1980 | 1 | 1980.042 | 337.8 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1980.125 | 338.29 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1980.208 | 340.04 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1980.292 | 340.86 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1980.375 | 341.47 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1980.458 | 341.26 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1980.542 | 339.29 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1980.625 | 337.6 |
| 1980 | 9 | 1980.708 | 336.12 |
| 1980 | 10 | 1980.792 | 336.08 |
| 1980 | 11 | 1980.875 | 337.22 |
| 1980 | 12 | 1980.958 | 338.34 |
| 1981 | 1 | 1981.042 | 339.36 |
| 1981 | 2 | 1981.125 | 340.51 |
| 1981 | 3 | 1981.208 | 341.57 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1981.292 | 342.56 |
| 1981 | 5 | 1981.375 | 343.01 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1981.458 | 342.47 |
| 1981 | 7 | 1981.542 | 340.71 |
| 1981 | 8 | 1981.625 | 338.52 |
| 1981 | 9 | 1981.708 | 336.96 |
| 1981 | 10 | 1981.792 | 337.13 |
| 1981 | 11 | 1981.875 | 338.58 |
| 1981 | 12 | 1981.958 | 339.89 |
| 1982 | 1 | 1982.042 | 340.93 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1982.125 | 341.69 |
| 1982 | 3 | 1982.208 | 342.69 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1982.292 | 343.79 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1982.375 | 344.3 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1982.458 | 343.43 |
| 1982 | 7 | 1982.542 | 341.88 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1982.625 | 339.89 |
| 1982 | 9 | 1982.708 | 337.96 |
| 1982 | 10 | 1982.792 | 338.1 |
| 1982 | 11 | 1982.875 | 339.26 |
| 1982 | 12 | 1982.958 | 340.67 |
| 1983 | 1 | 1983.042 | 341.42 |
| 1983 | 2 | 1983.125 | 342.68 |
| 1983 | 3 | 1983.208 | 343.45 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1983.292 | 345.1 |
| 1983 | 5 | 1983.375 | 345.76 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1983.458 | 345.36 |
| 1983 | 7 | 1983.542 | 343.91 |
| 1983 | 8 | 1983.625 | 342.05 |
| 1983 | 9 | 1983.708 | 340 |
| 1983 | 10 | 1983.792 | 340.12 |
| 1983 | 11 | 1983.875 | 341.33 |
| 1983 | 12 | 1983.958 | 342.94 |
| 1984 | 1 | 1984.042 | 343.87 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1984.125 | 344.6 |
| 1984 | 3 | 1984.208 | 345.2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1984.292 | -99.99 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1984.375 | 347.36 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1984.458 | 346.74 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1984.542 | 345.41 |
| 1984 | 8 | 1984.625 | 343.01 |
| 1984 | 9 | 1984.708 | 341.23 |
| 1984 | 10 | 1984.792 | 341.52 |
| 1984 | 11 | 1984.875 | 342.86 |
| 1984 | 12 | 1984.958 | 344.41 |
| 1985 | 1 | 1985.042 | 345.09 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1985.125 | 345.89 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1985.208 | 347.5 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1985.292 | 348 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1985.375 | 348.75 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1985.458 | 348.19 |
| 1985 | 7 | 1985.542 | 346.54 |
| 1985 | 8 | 1985.625 | 344.63 |
| 1985 | 9 | 1985.708 | 343.03 |
| 1985 | 10 | 1985.792 | 342.92 |
| 1985 | 11 | 1985.875 | 344.24 |
| 1985 | 12 | 1985.958 | 345.62 |
| 1986 | 1 | 1986.042 | 346.43 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1986.125 | 346.94 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1986.208 | 347.88 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1986.292 | 349.57 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1986.375 | 350.35 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1986.458 | 349.72 |
| 1986 | 7 | 1986.542 | 347.78 |
| 1986 | 8 | 1986.625 | 345.86 |
| 1986 | 9 | 1986.708 | 344.84 |
| 1986 | 10 | 1986.792 | 344.32 |
| 1986 | 11 | 1986.875 | 345.67 |
| 1986 | 12 | 1986.958 | 346.88 |
| 1987 | 1 | 1987.042 | 348.19 |
| 1987 | 2 | 1987.125 | 348.55 |
| 1987 | 3 | 1987.208 | 349.52 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1987.292 | 351.12 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1987.375 | 351.84 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1987.458 | 351.49 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1987.542 | 349.82 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1987.625 | 347.63 |
| 1987 | 9 | 1987.708 | 346.38 |
| 1987 | 10 | 1987.792 | 346.49 |
| 1987 | 11 | 1987.875 | 347.75 |
| 1987 | 12 | 1987.958 | 349.03 |
| 1988 | 1 | 1988.042 | 350.2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 1988.125 | 351.61 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1988.208 | 352.22 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1988.292 | 353.53 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1988.375 | 354.14 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1988.458 | 353.62 |
| 1988 | 7 | 1988.542 | 352.53 |
| 1988 | 8 | 1988.625 | 350.41 |
| 1988 | 9 | 1988.708 | 348.84 |
| 1988 | 10 | 1988.792 | 348.94 |
| 1988 | 11 | 1988.875 | 350.04 |
| 1988 | 12 | 1988.958 | 351.29 |
| 1989 | 1 | 1989.042 | 352.72 |
| 1989 | 2 | 1989.125 | 353.1 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1989.208 | 353.65 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1989.292 | 355.43 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1989.375 | 355.7 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1989.458 | 355.11 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1989.542 | 353.79 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1989.625 | 351.42 |
| 1989 | 9 | 1989.708 | 349.81 |
| 1989 | 10 | 1989.792 | 350.11 |
| 1989 | 11 | 1989.875 | 351.26 |
| 1989 | 12 | 1989.958 | 352.63 |
| 1990 | 1 | 1990.042 | 353.64 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1990.125 | 354.72 |
| 1990 | 3 | 1990.208 | 355.49 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1990.292 | 356.09 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1990.375 | 357.08 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1990.458 | 356.11 |
| 1990 | 7 | 1990.542 | 354.7 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1990.625 | 352.68 |
| 1990 | 9 | 1990.708 | 351.05 |
| 1990 | 10 | 1990.792 | 351.36 |
| 1990 | 11 | 1990.875 | 352.81 |
| 1990 | 12 | 1990.958 | 354.22 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1991.042 | 354.85 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1991.125 | 355.67 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1991.208 | 357.04 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1991.292 | 358.4 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1991.375 | 359 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1991.458 | 357.99 |
| 1991 | 7 | 1991.542 | 356 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1991.625 | 353.78 |
| 1991 | 9 | 1991.708 | 352.2 |
| 1991 | 10 | 1991.792 | 352.22 |
| 1991 | 11 | 1991.875 | 353.7 |
| 1991 | 12 | 1991.958 | 354.98 |
| 1992 | 1 | 1992.042 | 356.09 |
| 1992 | 2 | 1992.125 | 356.85 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1992.208 | 357.73 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1992.292 | 358.91 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1992.375 | 359.45 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1992.458 | 359.19 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1992.542 | 356.72 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1992.625 | 354.79 |
| 1992 | 9 | 1992.708 | 352.79 |
| 1992 | 10 | 1992.792 | 353.2 |
| 1992 | 11 | 1992.875 | 354.15 |
| 1992 | 12 | 1992.958 | 355.39 |
| 1993 | 1 | 1993.042 | 356.77 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1993.125 | 357.17 |
| 1993 | 3 | 1993.208 | 358.26 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1993.292 | 359.17 |
| 1993 | 5 | 1993.375 | 360.07 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1993.458 | 359.41 |
| 1993 | 7 | 1993.542 | 357.44 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1993.625 | 355.3 |
| 1993 | 9 | 1993.708 | 353.87 |
| 1993 | 10 | 1993.792 | 354.04 |
| 1993 | 11 | 1993.875 | 355.27 |
| 1993 | 12 | 1993.958 | 356.7 |
| 1994 | 1 | 1994.042 | 357.99 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1994.125 | 358.81 |
| 1994 | 3 | 1994.208 | 359.68 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1994.292 | 361.13 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1994.375 | 361.48 |
| 1994 | 6 | 1994.458 | 360.6 |
| 1994 | 7 | 1994.542 | 359.2 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1994.625 | 357.23 |
| 1994 | 9 | 1994.708 | 355.42 |
| 1994 | 10 | 1994.792 | 355.89 |
| 1994 | 11 | 1994.875 | 357.41 |
| 1994 | 12 | 1994.958 | 358.74 |
| 1995 | 1 | 1995.042 | 359.73 |
| 1995 | 2 | 1995.125 | 360.61 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1995.208 | 361.58 |
| 1995 | 4 | 1995.292 | 363.05 |
| 1995 | 5 | 1995.375 | 363.62 |
| 1995 | 6 | 1995.458 | 363.03 |
| 1995 | 7 | 1995.542 | 361.55 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1995.625 | 358.94 |
| 1995 | 9 | 1995.708 | 357.93 |
| 1995 | 10 | 1995.792 | 357.8 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1995.875 | 359.22 |
| 1995 | 12 | 1995.958 | 360.44 |
| 1996 | 1 | 1996.042 | 361.83 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1996.125 | 362.95 |
| 1996 | 3 | 1996.208 | 363.91 |
| 1996 | 4 | 1996.292 | 364.28 |
| 1996 | 5 | 1996.375 | 364.93 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1996.458 | 364.7 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1996.542 | 363.31 |
| 1996 | 8 | 1996.625 | 361.15 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1996.708 | 359.39 |
| 1996 | 10 | 1996.792 | 359.34 |
| 1996 | 11 | 1996.875 | 360.62 |
| 1996 | 12 | 1996.958 | 361.96 |
| 1997 | 1 | 1997.042 | 362.81 |
| 1997 | 2 | 1997.125 | 363.87 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1997.208 | 364.25 |
| 1997 | 4 | 1997.292 | 366.02 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1997.375 | 366.46 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1997.458 | 365.32 |
| 1997 | 7 | 1997.542 | 364.08 |
| 1997 | 8 | 1997.625 | 361.95 |
| 1997 | 9 | 1997.708 | 360.06 |
| 1997 | 10 | 1997.792 | 360.49 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1997.875 | 362.19 |
| 1997 | 12 | 1997.958 | 364.12 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1998.042 | 364.99 |
| 1998 | 2 | 1998.125 | 365.82 |
| 1998 | 3 | 1998.208 | 366.95 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1998.292 | 368.42 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1998.375 | 369.33 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1998.458 | 368.78 |
| 1998 | 7 | 1998.542 | 367.59 |
| 1998 | 8 | 1998.625 | 365.84 |
| 1998 | 9 | 1998.708 | 363.83 |
| 1998 | 10 | 1998.792 | 364.18 |
| 1998 | 11 | 1998.875 | 365.34 |
| 1998 | 12 | 1998.958 | 366.93 |
| 1999 | 1 | 1999.042 | 367.94 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1999.125 | 368.82 |
| 1999 | 3 | 1999.208 | 369.46 |
| 1999 | 4 | 1999.292 | 370.77 |
| 1999 | 5 | 1999.375 | 370.66 |
| 1999 | 6 | 1999.458 | 370.1 |
| 1999 | 7 | 1999.542 | 369.08 |
| 1999 | 8 | 1999.625 | 366.66 |
| 1999 | 9 | 1999.708 | 364.6 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1999.792 | 365.17 |
| 1999 | 11 | 1999.875 | 366.51 |
| 1999 | 12 | 1999.958 | 367.89 |
| 2000 | 1 | 2000.042 | 369.04 |
| 2000 | 2 | 2000.125 | 369.35 |
| 2000 | 3 | 2000.208 | 370.38 |
| 2000 | 4 | 2000.292 | 371.63 |
| 2000 | 5 | 2000.375 | 371.32 |
| 2000 | 6 | 2000.458 | 371.53 |
| 2000 | 7 | 2000.542 | 369.75 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2000.625 | 368.23 |
| 2000 | 9 | 2000.708 | 366.87 |
| 2000 | 10 | 2000.792 | 366.94 |
| 2000 | 11 | 2000.875 | 368.27 |
| 2000 | 12 | 2000.958 | 369.64 |
| 2001 | 1 | 2001.042 | 370.46 |
| 2001 | 2 | 2001.125 | 371.44 |
| 2001 | 3 | 2001.208 | 372.37 |
| 2001 | 4 | 2001.292 | 373.32 |
| 2001 | 5 | 2001.375 | 373.77 |
| 2001 | 6 | 2001.458 | 373.09 |
| 2001 | 7 | 2001.542 | 371.51 |
| 2001 | 8 | 2001.625 | 369.55 |
| 2001 | 9 | 2001.708 | 368.12 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2001.792 | 368.38 |
| 2001 | 11 | 2001.875 | 369.66 |
| 2001 | 12 | 2001.958 | 371.11 |
| 2002 | 1 | 2002.042 | 372.36 |
| 2002 | 2 | 2002.125 | 373.09 |
| 2002 | 3 | 2002.208 | 373.81 |
| 2002 | 4 | 2002.292 | 374.93 |
| 2002 | 5 | 2002.375 | 375.58 |
| 2002 | 6 | 2002.458 | 375.44 |
| 2002 | 7 | 2002.542 | 373.86 |
| 2002 | 8 | 2002.625 | 371.77 |
| 2002 | 9 | 2002.708 | 370.73 |
| 2002 | 10 | 2002.792 | 370.5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 2002.875 | 372.19 |
| 2002 | 12 | 2002.958 | 373.7 |
| 2003 | 1 | 2003.042 | 374.92 |
| 2003 | 2 | 2003.125 | 375.62 |
| 2003 | 3 | 2003.208 | 376.51 |
| 2003 | 4 | 2003.292 | 377.75 |
| 2003 | 5 | 2003.375 | 378.54 |
| 2003 | 6 | 2003.458 | 378.2 |
| 2003 | 7 | 2003.542 | 376.68 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2003.625 | 374.43 |
| 2003 | 9 | 2003.708 | 373.11 |
| 2003 | 10 | 2003.792 | 373.1 |
| 2003 | 11 | 2003.875 | 374.77 |
| 2003 | 12 | 2003.958 | 375.97 |
| 2004 | 1 | 2004.042 | 377.03 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2004.125 | 377.87 |
| 2004 | 3 | 2004.208 | 378.88 |
| 2004 | 4 | 2004.292 | 380.42 |
| 2004 | 5 | 2004.375 | 380.62 |
| 2004 | 6 | 2004.458 | 379.71 |
| 2004 | 7 | 2004.542 | 377.43 |
| 2004 | 8 | 2004.625 | 376.32 |
| 2004 | 9 | 2004.708 | 374.19 |
| 2004 | 10 | 2004.792 | 374.47 |
| 2004 | 11 | 2004.875 | 376.15 |
| 2004 | 12 | 2004.958 | 377.51 |
| 2005 | 1 | 2005.042 | 378.43 |
| 2005 | 2 | 2005.125 | 379.7 |
| 2005 | 3 | 2005.208 | 380.92 |
| 2005 | 4 | 2005.292 | 382.18 |
| 2005 | 5 | 2005.375 | 382.45 |
| 2005 | 6 | 2005.458 | 382.14 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2005.542 | 380.6 |
| 2005 | 8 | 2005.625 | 378.64 |
| 2005 | 9 | 2005.708 | 376.73 |
| 2005 | 10 | 2005.792 | 376.84 |
| 2005 | 11 | 2005.875 | 378.29 |
| 2005 | 12 | 2005.958 | 380.06 |
| 2006 | 1 | 2006.042 | 381.4 |
| 2006 | 2 | 2006.125 | 382.2 |
| 2006 | 3 | 2006.208 | 382.66 |
| 2006 | 4 | 2006.292 | 384.69 |
| 2006 | 5 | 2006.375 | 384.94 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2006.458 | 384.01 |
| 2006 | 7 | 2006.542 | 382.14 |
| 2006 | 8 | 2006.625 | 380.31 |
| 2006 | 9 | 2006.708 | 378.81 |
| 2006 | 10 | 2006.792 | 379.03 |
| 2006 | 11 | 2006.875 | 380.17 |
| 2006 | 12 | 2006.958 | 381.85 |
| 2007 | 1 | 2007.042 | 382.94 |
| 2007 | 2 | 2007.125 | 383.86 |
| 2007 | 3 | 2007.208 | 384.49 |
| 2007 | 4 | 2007.292 | 386.37 |
| 2007 | 5 | 2007.375 | 386.54 |
| 2007 | 6 | 2007.458 | 385.98 |
| 2007 | 7 | 2007.542 | 384.35 |
| 2007 | 8 | 2007.625 | 381.85 |
| 2007 | 9 | 2007.708 | 380.74 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2007.792 | 381.15 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2007.875 | 382.38 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2007.958 | 383.94 |
| 2008 | 1 | 2008.042 | 385.35 |
| 2008 | 2 | 2008.125 | 385.7 |
| 2008 | 3 | 2008.208 | 385.92 |
| 2008 | 4 | 2008.292 | 387.21 |
| 2008 | 5 | 2008.375 | 388.48 |
| 2008 | 6 | 2008.458 | 387.99 |
| 2008 | 7 | 2008.542 | 384.93 |
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statePoet1775 (01:28:02) :
See http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/IanwilsonForum2008.pdf for a PowerPoint (sigh) presentation that talks about exactly that. Actually, it talks about the converse – that changes in length of day are behind changes in the NAO and PDO. I don’t think the .ppt says anything about the conventional Length of Day changes such as build up of ice and snow near the Earth’s axis (i.e. high latitudes) so set your skepticism sense to stun.
Cooling oceans
RSS and UAH data for August comes out in the next day or so…it will be interesting to see if there is another drop. If the temp continues to fall, then this could be the begining of the end of AGW hoax.
An interesting note – imagine how much the CO2 level has ACTUALLY fallen – considering that human CO2 emissions are adding quite a bit of CO2 – the real decline of that natural background level must be quite significant.
Er, it’s a lot simpler than that – each sample is just subtracted from the previous one! Perhaps ‘derivative’ is too high-falutin’ a term for it – think “differences” instead…
Me no like.
Temperature changes PRECEDE atmospheric CO2 changes.
Anthony’s point…
“It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months”
is worrisome. If the recent “Failure to Warm,” i.e. cooling trend, is large enough affect mean atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the oceans may indeed have switched to their longer term cool phases, e.g. cold PDO & AMO.
At the same time, Solar Cycle 24 continues to sputter – that is, when it does ANYTHING at all.
Yesterday a BMR (bipolar magnetic region) emerged on the sun, with a Cycle 24 signature (leading negative polarity in the northern hemisphere).
It was fairly large and looked as though it had the potential to produce a sunspot.
Once again, within 24 hours, that potential had faded away, and the BMR continues to weaken without having produced a spot.
This same pattern seems to happen about every 2 to 3 weeks. Solar Cycle 24 just can’t seem to get ‘er done.
So whether cause and effect or coincidence, we seem to be already in a period of cold oceans and deep solar minimum, simultaneously.
This is not good.
Hmmmm… CO2 drop due to people driving less?
Is that an off the cuff assumption? Does anyone have hard data on the decrease in CO2 emission due to a reduction in oil consumption?
Since it is almost predictable someone is going to claim that this is a man-made reduction, why not have crunched the numbers beforehand?
Dee Norris (00:47:00) :
“It will be interesting to see if it drops below the Sept 2007 annual low (380.74) in a couple of months.
It if turns out that this is driven by the colder SST, it will help establish that the horse goes before the cart and that rising SST of the warm PDO phase drove the CO2 increase of the latter 20th Century.”
I wouldn’t expect it to actually drop below last years value. If you compare SST with growth rate of CO2 each year it correlate pretty ok. If you then make a diagram with SST on Y-axis and CO2 growth rate on X-axis it and make a linear trendline it will cross Y-axis at -0.3C roughly. That means IF the temperature is causing the whole CO2 raise, CO2 will stop raising when we reach a global temperature anomaly of rouglhy -0.3C, give or take some. I do not claim this is some peer reviewed sience but the correlation strikes you when you see it in a diagram.
When this year ends, if global temperatures stays at it’s current levels, I predict the CO2 raise for 2008 will be 1.4 +/-0.4 ppm.
Well, the data must be wrong.
Either the instruments need recalibration or the data needs to be analyzed or adjusted differently. Global warming theory insists that CO2 must be going up and the computer climate models prove this.
Therefore, you’re wrong.
Who is John Galt?
This is OT sorta.
If anyone wants to visit my myspace page and read my latest blog called The Slow Demise of Science. You can leave comments there if you wish. Basically, there are a lot of intelligent people here I see, and I want to see if my thoughts register with you on that posting. Any critiques are welcome too. I edited it a lot and tried make it flow well. I’m not trying to steal thunder or space from Anthony here. Just asking for a fair review from fellow intelligent minds.
http://www.myspace.com/storms_shadows_starlight
The Slow Demise of Science
@Patrick Henery
100% correct.
It says a lot about society when science textbooks are written by Hollywood producers.
This shows two things:
First, CO2 growth rate does depend on temperature, as is becoming more and more well known. If temps continue to fall, we might indeed see a negative growth rate, despite human emissions. BTW, Paul Clark is right in pointing out that it’s best to compare the annual growth rates (jan to jan, july to july). Given the seasonal fluctuations, it’s the best approximation to a true derivative that one can get, IMO. The only other way would be to assume some seasonal dependency (say a sine function), and substract it, but this is likely to lead to a larger error. Taking the derivative of raw, noisy data is one of the most difficult things to do when you analyze data.
Second point: global temps are now similar to what they were 20 years ago. Yet, 20 years ago, the growth rate would have been largely positive. What does that mean? It means that the global CO2 sink is now much larger than it was. The sink grows and grows with the CO2 concentration. The biosphere adapts rapidly and strongly to an increased CO2. CO2 is food. Put more food, and more will come to eat it (we feed cats in our backyard and see the same effect…) So a combination of lower temps and larger sink could rapidly get rid of the surplus CO2, if temps do get lower for a long period of time.
Final word: yes, solubility goes up when temps go down, but mostly this is the work of the biological pump. Phytoplankton works better when it’s cool. The solubility effect is rather small in the end.
369.33 May, 1998
369.35 Feb, 2000
La Nina
355.43 Apr, 1989
355.89 Dec, 1992
Pinataubo? Looks like Temp matters, huh?
380.42 Apr, 2004
379.70 Feb, 2005
La Nina
I think I’m seein a patturn, here
@Jerker
Possibly.
The PDO only shifted to positive with in the last couple of months. If CO2 lags by 7-9 months, then there is still the residual cooling SST to absorb additional CO2 over and above the seasonal variation.
The interesting part would be the reaction of the AGW converts.
Lest anyone forget, the warming folks aren’t buying into the satellite data at all these days. They stick to the adjusted data. After all, appearance is everything.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Annual Mean Growth Rate – seems to follow global temperatures. With zero lag. Closely. Year on year.
BTW – there are three “main” planetary/climactic harmonic periods (via orbital mechanics) and two are still running “hot”, so even if the “cold” one was the most influential (it aint) we would not be going into a new ice age as that is another 1300 years away.
We are due for a cold spell, followed by a cold spell, followed by a colder spell. Expect some years (such as 2010) to be “warm” again, but the future trend is down. Our children will face a colder world.
The truly ironically funny thing? 2013, the year the warming “begins again” (according to some) is going to be the start of an extended cold period. I hope I live to see it even though my old bones like it how it is right now (how it has been all my life).
Re statePoet1775 (01:28:02) :
According to sat data sea level has been flat or falling for the last couple of years
link
Francois Ouellette (07:11:39) :
I believe the sat data is showing a “greening” which one would expect from an increase in CO2
Dee,
Are you suggesting that there is CO2 reduction already ‘in the pipeline’ and there’s nothing we can do about it? 🙂
Besides the oceans, the big CO2 sinks are plants.
The usual seasonal drop from May-June to September-October is the response of growing vegetation in the more-land-weighted northern hemisphere.
Maybe we are starting to see increased plant growth responding to more CO2. In fact, if we extend the trends, maybe plants will help start to stablize CO2 levels.
With these latest number, humans are adding about 8.0 billion tons of Carbon to the Carbon cycle each year right now and oceans and plants are sinking 6.0 to 8.0 billion tons of it.
Note: CO2 levels should increasing by about 4 ppm per year with the amount of CO2 we are adding each year. Plants and oceans were previously absorbing about half of that. Maybe it is higher now, enough to almost stabilize CO2 levels. Ahh, the negative feedbacks that are not supposed to exist.
There were a couple of additional anomalies in 2008 that may be related.
(1) Compared to previous years, CO2 was almost flat in the January- February- March span of 2008, increasing only 0.57 ppm in 2 months. That flat period stands out in the graph.
(2) CO2 fell by more than 3 ppm in just one month, from June to July of 2008, which is also unusual.
I have never read such twadle. To add the measurment of one site for what is effectively one time (month) and draw any conclusion at all is as unscientific as one can get. There are all kinds of things that can be surmized from this, not the least of which is a change in the output of local volcanoes…
To put this information against significantly longer trends is nothing less than stupid.
BarryW,
Thanks for the link.
John Galt is a male protagonist in ‘Atlas Shrugged’. “Who is John Galt?”, is an often poised question in the story.