Mauna Loa CO2 January to July trend goes negative first time in history

UPDATE5: MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting

UPDATE4 August 4th 11:45PST the Mauna Loa graph (but not data) has changed, see this new post

Back on April 6th of this year I made an observation about the trend in the CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory dropping and possibly “leveling off”.

For that I was roundly criticized by those “in the know” and given the full Bulldog treatment.

[ UPDATE: Lucia has an interesting take on such criticisms ]

Well, it’s happened again. With the release of the July data from Mauna Loa Observatory, a new twist has occurred; this time there’s been a first ever trend reversal of the monthly mean CO2 levels from January to July. Here is the familiar Mauna Loa graph:

Source data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

In the NOAA graph above, note the drop in the first few months of 2008, and the slightly muted rebound afterwards. Clearly something changed and the uncharacteristic drop in CO2 levels has been recorded by the world’s premiere CO2 monitoring station.

By itself, that blip isn’t much news, as there have been similar blips in the past, such as in 2004. But where it really gets interesting and unique is when you compare the seasonal difference, between, January 2008 to July 2008 levels against the rest of the Mauna Loa CO2 going back to 1958.

First let’s look at this year and last year in a magnified portion of the Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data:

Source data via FTP: Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data

Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.

Going back through the data to compare previous January to July values, it has become clear that this is a unique event in the history of the data set. A value lower in July than January has never happened before. Prior to 2008, there has always been a gain from January to July.  This is a 6 month “seasonal”period from January 30th to July 31st, when the end of month data is released.

UPDATE 2: to see how far off the recent trendline the July value is, see this scatterplot from Lucia. Lucia has an interesting take

Residual from OLSClick for larger.

Below is the data table with the January and July values highlighted for your inspection.

What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.

This may signal a change,  or this one time event may in fact be that, one time. It may not happen again next year, we simply don’t know. But, it is unique and thought provoking.

UPDATE: Paul Clark of Woodfortrees.org where you can interactively graph a variety of datasets, offered this plot of rate of change:

Click for interactive graph

And Dee Norris offered up this graph from the same graph generator comparing rate of changes against the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the UAH Satellite Temperature data set. It would seem that the ocean solubility could be the largest factor.

It would seem to be a regional effect, which is probably driven by La Nina in the Pacific. The global CO2 trend continues:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.

Data table below:


Data Table:

January and July values shown in bold.

# Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 data
#   decimal mean
#   date  
1958 3 1958.208 315.71
1958 4 1958.292 317.45
1958 5 1958.375 317.5
1958 6 1958.458 -99.99
1958 7 1958.542 315.86
1958 8 1958.625 314.93
1958 9 1958.708 313.2
1958 10 1958.792 -99.99
1958 11 1958.875 313.33
1958 12 1958.958 314.67
1959 1 1959.042 315.62
1959 2 1959.125 316.38
1959 3 1959.208 316.71
1959 4 1959.292 317.72
1959 5 1959.375 318.29
1959 6 1959.458 318.16
1959 7 1959.542 316.55
1959 8 1959.625 314.8
1959 9 1959.708 313.84
1959 10 1959.792 313.26
1959 11 1959.875 314.8
1959 12 1959.958 315.59
1960 1 1960.042 316.43
1960 2 1960.125 316.97
1960 3 1960.208 317.58
1960 4 1960.292 319.02
1960 5 1960.375 320.02
1960 6 1960.458 319.59
1960 7 1960.542 318.18
1960 8 1960.625 315.91
1960 9 1960.708 314.16
1960 10 1960.792 313.83
1960 11 1960.875 315
1960 12 1960.958 316.19
1961 1 1961.042 316.93
1961 2 1961.125 317.7
1961 3 1961.208 318.54
1961 4 1961.292 319.48
1961 5 1961.375 320.58
1961 6 1961.458 319.77
1961 7 1961.542 318.58
1961 8 1961.625 316.79
1961 9 1961.708 314.8
1961 10 1961.792 315.38
1961 11 1961.875 316.1
1961 12 1961.958 317.01
1962 1 1962.042 317.94
1962 2 1962.125 318.55
1962 3 1962.208 319.68
1962 4 1962.292 320.63
1962 5 1962.375 321.01
1962 6 1962.458 320.55
1962 7 1962.542 319.58
1962 8 1962.625 317.4
1962 9 1962.708 316.26
1962 10 1962.792 315.42
1962 11 1962.875 316.69
1962 12 1962.958 317.7
1963 1 1963.042 318.74
1963 2 1963.125 319.08
1963 3 1963.208 319.86
1963 4 1963.292 321.39
1963 5 1963.375 322.24
1963 6 1963.458 321.47
1963 7 1963.542 319.74
1963 8 1963.625 317.77
1963 9 1963.708 316.21
1963 10 1963.792 315.99
1963 11 1963.875 317.12
1963 12 1963.958 318.31
1964 1 1964.042 319.57
1964 2 1964.125 -99.99
1964 3 1964.208 -99.99
1964 4 1964.292 -99.99
1964 5 1964.375 322.24
1964 6 1964.458 321.89
1964 7 1964.542 320.44
1964 8 1964.625 318.7
1964 9 1964.708 316.7
1964 10 1964.792 316.79
1964 11 1964.875 317.79
1964 12 1964.958 318.71
1965 1 1965.042 319.44
1965 2 1965.125 320.44
1965 3 1965.208 320.89
1965 4 1965.292 322.13
1965 5 1965.375 322.16
1965 6 1965.458 321.87
1965 7 1965.542 321.39
1965 8 1965.625 318.8
1965 9 1965.708 317.81
1965 10 1965.792 317.3
1965 11 1965.875 318.87
1965 12 1965.958 319.42
1966 1 1966.042 320.62
1966 2 1966.125 321.59
1966 3 1966.208 322.39
1966 4 1966.292 323.87
1966 5 1966.375 324.01
1966 6 1966.458 323.75
1966 7 1966.542 322.4
1966 8 1966.625 320.37
1966 9 1966.708 318.64
1966 10 1966.792 318.1
1966 11 1966.875 319.78
1966 12 1966.958 321.08
1967 1 1967.042 322.06
1967 2 1967.125 322.5
1967 3 1967.208 323.04
1967 4 1967.292 324.42
1967 5 1967.375 325
1967 6 1967.458 324.09
1967 7 1967.542 322.55
1967 8 1967.625 320.92
1967 9 1967.708 319.31
1967 10 1967.792 319.31
1967 11 1967.875 320.72
1967 12 1967.958 321.96
1968 1 1968.042 322.57
1968 2 1968.125 323.15
1968 3 1968.208 323.89
1968 4 1968.292 325.02
1968 5 1968.375 325.57
1968 6 1968.458 325.36
1968 7 1968.542 324.14
1968 8 1968.625 322.03
1968 9 1968.708 320.41
1968 10 1968.792 320.25
1968 11 1968.875 321.31
1968 12 1968.958 322.84
1969 1 1969.042 324
1969 2 1969.125 324.42
1969 3 1969.208 325.64
1969 4 1969.292 326.66
1969 5 1969.375 327.34
1969 6 1969.458 326.76
1969 7 1969.542 325.88
1969 8 1969.625 323.67
1969 9 1969.708 322.38
1969 10 1969.792 321.78
1969 11 1969.875 322.85
1969 12 1969.958 324.12
1970 1 1970.042 325.03
1970 2 1970.125 325.99
1970 3 1970.208 326.87
1970 4 1970.292 328.14
1970 5 1970.375 328.07
1970 6 1970.458 327.66
1970 7 1970.542 326.35
1970 8 1970.625 324.69
1970 9 1970.708 323.1
1970 10 1970.792 323.16
1970 11 1970.875 323.98
1970 12 1970.958 325.13
1971 1 1971.042 326.17
1971 2 1971.125 326.68
1971 3 1971.208 327.18
1971 4 1971.292 327.78
1971 5 1971.375 328.92
1971 6 1971.458 328.57
1971 7 1971.542 327.34
1971 8 1971.625 325.46
1971 9 1971.708 323.36
1971 10 1971.792 323.56
1971 11 1971.875 324.8
1971 12 1971.958 326.01
1972 1 1972.042 326.77
1972 2 1972.125 327.63
1972 3 1972.208 327.75
1972 4 1972.292 329.72
1972 5 1972.375 330.07
1972 6 1972.458 329.09
1972 7 1972.542 328.05
1972 8 1972.625 326.32
1972 9 1972.708 324.93
1972 10 1972.792 325.06
1972 11 1972.875 326.5
1972 12 1972.958 327.55
1973 1 1973.042 328.55
1973 2 1973.125 329.56
1973 3 1973.208 330.3
1973 4 1973.292 331.5
1973 5 1973.375 332.48
1973 6 1973.458 332.07
1973 7 1973.542 330.87
1973 8 1973.625 329.31
1973 9 1973.708 327.51
1973 10 1973.792 327.18
1973 11 1973.875 328.16
1973 12 1973.958 328.64
1974 1 1974.042 329.35
1974 2 1974.125 330.71
1974 3 1974.208 331.48
1974 4 1974.292 332.65
1974 5 1974.375 333.16
1974 6 1974.458 332.06
1974 7 1974.542 330.99
1974 8 1974.625 329.17
1974 9 1974.708 327.41
1974 10 1974.792 327.2
1974 11 1974.875 328.33
1974 12 1974.958 329.5
1975 1 1975.042 330.68
1975 2 1975.125 331.41
1975 3 1975.208 331.85
1975 4 1975.292 333.29
1975 5 1975.375 333.91
1975 6 1975.458 333.4
1975 7 1975.542 331.78
1975 8 1975.625 329.88
1975 9 1975.708 328.57
1975 10 1975.792 328.46
1975 11 1975.875 329.26
1975 12 1975.958 -99.99
1976 1 1976.042 331.71
1976 2 1976.125 332.76
1976 3 1976.208 333.48
1976 4 1976.292 334.78
1976 5 1976.375 334.79
1976 6 1976.458 334.17
1976 7 1976.542 332.78
1976 8 1976.625 330.64
1976 9 1976.708 328.95
1976 10 1976.792 328.77
1976 11 1976.875 330.23
1976 12 1976.958 331.69
1977 1 1977.042 332.7
1977 2 1977.125 333.24
1977 3 1977.208 334.96
1977 4 1977.292 336.04
1977 5 1977.375 336.82
1977 6 1977.458 336.13
1977 7 1977.542 334.73
1977 8 1977.625 332.52
1977 9 1977.708 331.19
1977 10 1977.792 331.19
1977 11 1977.875 332.35
1977 12 1977.958 333.47
1978 1 1978.042 335.11
1978 2 1978.125 335.26
1978 3 1978.208 336.6
1978 4 1978.292 337.77
1978 5 1978.375 338
1978 6 1978.458 337.99
1978 7 1978.542 336.48
1978 8 1978.625 334.37
1978 9 1978.708 332.27
1978 10 1978.792 332.4
1978 11 1978.875 333.76
1978 12 1978.958 334.83
1979 1 1979.042 336.21
1979 2 1979.125 336.64
1979 3 1979.208 338.12
1979 4 1979.292 339.02
1979 5 1979.375 339.02
1979 6 1979.458 339.2
1979 7 1979.542 337.58
1979 8 1979.625 335.55
1979 9 1979.708 333.89
1979 10 1979.792 334.14
1979 11 1979.875 335.26
1979 12 1979.958 336.71
1980 1 1980.042 337.8
1980 2 1980.125 338.29
1980 3 1980.208 340.04
1980 4 1980.292 340.86
1980 5 1980.375 341.47
1980 6 1980.458 341.26
1980 7 1980.542 339.29
1980 8 1980.625 337.6
1980 9 1980.708 336.12
1980 10 1980.792 336.08
1980 11 1980.875 337.22
1980 12 1980.958 338.34
1981 1 1981.042 339.36
1981 2 1981.125 340.51
1981 3 1981.208 341.57
1981 4 1981.292 342.56
1981 5 1981.375 343.01
1981 6 1981.458 342.47
1981 7 1981.542 340.71
1981 8 1981.625 338.52
1981 9 1981.708 336.96
1981 10 1981.792 337.13
1981 11 1981.875 338.58
1981 12 1981.958 339.89
1982 1 1982.042 340.93
1982 2 1982.125 341.69
1982 3 1982.208 342.69
1982 4 1982.292 343.79
1982 5 1982.375 344.3
1982 6 1982.458 343.43
1982 7 1982.542 341.88
1982 8 1982.625 339.89
1982 9 1982.708 337.96
1982 10 1982.792 338.1
1982 11 1982.875 339.26
1982 12 1982.958 340.67
1983 1 1983.042 341.42
1983 2 1983.125 342.68
1983 3 1983.208 343.45
1983 4 1983.292 345.1
1983 5 1983.375 345.76
1983 6 1983.458 345.36
1983 7 1983.542 343.91
1983 8 1983.625 342.05
1983 9 1983.708 340
1983 10 1983.792 340.12
1983 11 1983.875 341.33
1983 12 1983.958 342.94
1984 1 1984.042 343.87
1984 2 1984.125 344.6
1984 3 1984.208 345.2
1984 4 1984.292 -99.99
1984 5 1984.375 347.36
1984 6 1984.458 346.74
1984 7 1984.542 345.41
1984 8 1984.625 343.01
1984 9 1984.708 341.23
1984 10 1984.792 341.52
1984 11 1984.875 342.86
1984 12 1984.958 344.41
1985 1 1985.042 345.09
1985 2 1985.125 345.89
1985 3 1985.208 347.5
1985 4 1985.292 348
1985 5 1985.375 348.75
1985 6 1985.458 348.19
1985 7 1985.542 346.54
1985 8 1985.625 344.63
1985 9 1985.708 343.03
1985 10 1985.792 342.92
1985 11 1985.875 344.24
1985 12 1985.958 345.62
1986 1 1986.042 346.43
1986 2 1986.125 346.94
1986 3 1986.208 347.88
1986 4 1986.292 349.57
1986 5 1986.375 350.35
1986 6 1986.458 349.72
1986 7 1986.542 347.78
1986 8 1986.625 345.86
1986 9 1986.708 344.84
1986 10 1986.792 344.32
1986 11 1986.875 345.67
1986 12 1986.958 346.88
1987 1 1987.042 348.19
1987 2 1987.125 348.55
1987 3 1987.208 349.52
1987 4 1987.292 351.12
1987 5 1987.375 351.84
1987 6 1987.458 351.49
1987 7 1987.542 349.82
1987 8 1987.625 347.63
1987 9 1987.708 346.38
1987 10 1987.792 346.49
1987 11 1987.875 347.75
1987 12 1987.958 349.03
1988 1 1988.042 350.2
1988 2 1988.125 351.61
1988 3 1988.208 352.22
1988 4 1988.292 353.53
1988 5 1988.375 354.14
1988 6 1988.458 353.62
1988 7 1988.542 352.53
1988 8 1988.625 350.41
1988 9 1988.708 348.84
1988 10 1988.792 348.94
1988 11 1988.875 350.04
1988 12 1988.958 351.29
1989 1 1989.042 352.72
1989 2 1989.125 353.1
1989 3 1989.208 353.65
1989 4 1989.292 355.43
1989 5 1989.375 355.7
1989 6 1989.458 355.11
1989 7 1989.542 353.79
1989 8 1989.625 351.42
1989 9 1989.708 349.81
1989 10 1989.792 350.11
1989 11 1989.875 351.26
1989 12 1989.958 352.63
1990 1 1990.042 353.64
1990 2 1990.125 354.72
1990 3 1990.208 355.49
1990 4 1990.292 356.09
1990 5 1990.375 357.08
1990 6 1990.458 356.11
1990 7 1990.542 354.7
1990 8 1990.625 352.68
1990 9 1990.708 351.05
1990 10 1990.792 351.36
1990 11 1990.875 352.81
1990 12 1990.958 354.22
1991 1 1991.042 354.85
1991 2 1991.125 355.67
1991 3 1991.208 357.04
1991 4 1991.292 358.4
1991 5 1991.375 359
1991 6 1991.458 357.99
1991 7 1991.542 356
1991 8 1991.625 353.78
1991 9 1991.708 352.2
1991 10 1991.792 352.22
1991 11 1991.875 353.7
1991 12 1991.958 354.98
1992 1 1992.042 356.09
1992 2 1992.125 356.85
1992 3 1992.208 357.73
1992 4 1992.292 358.91
1992 5 1992.375 359.45
1992 6 1992.458 359.19
1992 7 1992.542 356.72
1992 8 1992.625 354.79
1992 9 1992.708 352.79
1992 10 1992.792 353.2
1992 11 1992.875 354.15
1992 12 1992.958 355.39
1993 1 1993.042 356.77
1993 2 1993.125 357.17
1993 3 1993.208 358.26
1993 4 1993.292 359.17
1993 5 1993.375 360.07
1993 6 1993.458 359.41
1993 7 1993.542 357.44
1993 8 1993.625 355.3
1993 9 1993.708 353.87
1993 10 1993.792 354.04
1993 11 1993.875 355.27
1993 12 1993.958 356.7
1994 1 1994.042 357.99
1994 2 1994.125 358.81
1994 3 1994.208 359.68
1994 4 1994.292 361.13
1994 5 1994.375 361.48
1994 6 1994.458 360.6
1994 7 1994.542 359.2
1994 8 1994.625 357.23
1994 9 1994.708 355.42
1994 10 1994.792 355.89
1994 11 1994.875 357.41
1994 12 1994.958 358.74
1995 1 1995.042 359.73
1995 2 1995.125 360.61
1995 3 1995.208 361.58
1995 4 1995.292 363.05
1995 5 1995.375 363.62
1995 6 1995.458 363.03
1995 7 1995.542 361.55
1995 8 1995.625 358.94
1995 9 1995.708 357.93
1995 10 1995.792 357.8
1995 11 1995.875 359.22
1995 12 1995.958 360.44
1996 1 1996.042 361.83
1996 2 1996.125 362.95
1996 3 1996.208 363.91
1996 4 1996.292 364.28
1996 5 1996.375 364.93
1996 6 1996.458 364.7
1996 7 1996.542 363.31
1996 8 1996.625 361.15
1996 9 1996.708 359.39
1996 10 1996.792 359.34
1996 11 1996.875 360.62
1996 12 1996.958 361.96
1997 1 1997.042 362.81
1997 2 1997.125 363.87
1997 3 1997.208 364.25
1997 4 1997.292 366.02
1997 5 1997.375 366.46
1997 6 1997.458 365.32
1997 7 1997.542 364.08
1997 8 1997.625 361.95
1997 9 1997.708 360.06
1997 10 1997.792 360.49
1997 11 1997.875 362.19
1997 12 1997.958 364.12
1998 1 1998.042 364.99
1998 2 1998.125 365.82
1998 3 1998.208 366.95
1998 4 1998.292 368.42
1998 5 1998.375 369.33
1998 6 1998.458 368.78
1998 7 1998.542 367.59
1998 8 1998.625 365.84
1998 9 1998.708 363.83
1998 10 1998.792 364.18
1998 11 1998.875 365.34
1998 12 1998.958 366.93
1999 1 1999.042 367.94
1999 2 1999.125 368.82
1999 3 1999.208 369.46
1999 4 1999.292 370.77
1999 5 1999.375 370.66
1999 6 1999.458 370.1
1999 7 1999.542 369.08
1999 8 1999.625 366.66
1999 9 1999.708 364.6
1999 10 1999.792 365.17
1999 11 1999.875 366.51
1999 12 1999.958 367.89
2000 1 2000.042 369.04
2000 2 2000.125 369.35
2000 3 2000.208 370.38
2000 4 2000.292 371.63
2000 5 2000.375 371.32
2000 6 2000.458 371.53
2000 7 2000.542 369.75
2000 8 2000.625 368.23
2000 9 2000.708 366.87
2000 10 2000.792 366.94
2000 11 2000.875 368.27
2000 12 2000.958 369.64
2001 1 2001.042 370.46
2001 2 2001.125 371.44
2001 3 2001.208 372.37
2001 4 2001.292 373.32
2001 5 2001.375 373.77
2001 6 2001.458 373.09
2001 7 2001.542 371.51
2001 8 2001.625 369.55
2001 9 2001.708 368.12
2001 10 2001.792 368.38
2001 11 2001.875 369.66
2001 12 2001.958 371.11
2002 1 2002.042 372.36
2002 2 2002.125 373.09
2002 3 2002.208 373.81
2002 4 2002.292 374.93
2002 5 2002.375 375.58
2002 6 2002.458 375.44
2002 7 2002.542 373.86
2002 8 2002.625 371.77
2002 9 2002.708 370.73
2002 10 2002.792 370.5
2002 11 2002.875 372.19
2002 12 2002.958 373.7
2003 1 2003.042 374.92
2003 2 2003.125 375.62
2003 3 2003.208 376.51
2003 4 2003.292 377.75
2003 5 2003.375 378.54
2003 6 2003.458 378.2
2003 7 2003.542 376.68
2003 8 2003.625 374.43
2003 9 2003.708 373.11
2003 10 2003.792 373.1
2003 11 2003.875 374.77
2003 12 2003.958 375.97
2004 1 2004.042 377.03
2004 2 2004.125 377.87
2004 3 2004.208 378.88
2004 4 2004.292 380.42
2004 5 2004.375 380.62
2004 6 2004.458 379.71
2004 7 2004.542 377.43
2004 8 2004.625 376.32
2004 9 2004.708 374.19
2004 10 2004.792 374.47
2004 11 2004.875 376.15
2004 12 2004.958 377.51
2005 1 2005.042 378.43
2005 2 2005.125 379.7
2005 3 2005.208 380.92
2005 4 2005.292 382.18
2005 5 2005.375 382.45
2005 6 2005.458 382.14
2005 7 2005.542 380.6
2005 8 2005.625 378.64
2005 9 2005.708 376.73
2005 10 2005.792 376.84
2005 11 2005.875 378.29
2005 12 2005.958 380.06
2006 1 2006.042 381.4
2006 2 2006.125 382.2
2006 3 2006.208 382.66
2006 4 2006.292 384.69
2006 5 2006.375 384.94
2006 6 2006.458 384.01
2006 7 2006.542 382.14
2006 8 2006.625 380.31
2006 9 2006.708 378.81
2006 10 2006.792 379.03
2006 11 2006.875 380.17
2006 12 2006.958 381.85
2007 1 2007.042 382.94
2007 2 2007.125 383.86
2007 3 2007.208 384.49
2007 4 2007.292 386.37
2007 5 2007.375 386.54
2007 6 2007.458 385.98
2007 7 2007.542 384.35
2007 8 2007.625 381.85
2007 9 2007.708 380.74
2007 10 2007.792 381.15
2007 11 2007.875 382.38
2007 12 2007.958 383.94
2008 1 2008.042 385.35
2008 2 2008.125 385.7
2008 3 2008.208 385.92
2008 4 2008.292 387.21
2008 5 2008.375 388.48
2008 6 2008.458 387.99
2008 7 2008.542 384.93
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Editor
August 4, 2008 5:28 am

statePoet1775 (01:28:02) :

“Concerning ocean cooling and stagnant sea level, this has to translate into an increase in the earth’s rotational speed.” Pierre Gosselin
Like an ice skater pulling in her arms while spinning? But wouldn’t this require sea level to drop via thermal contraction? What a clever way to measure overall ocean temperature! (if it works.)

See http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/IanwilsonForum2008.pdf for a PowerPoint (sigh) presentation that talks about exactly that. Actually, it talks about the converse – that changes in length of day are behind changes in the NAO and PDO. I don’t think the .ppt says anything about the conventional Length of Day changes such as build up of ice and snow near the Earth’s axis (i.e. high latitudes) so set your skepticism sense to stun.

August 4, 2008 5:29 am

Cooling oceans

GK
August 4, 2008 5:34 am

RSS and UAH data for August comes out in the next day or so…it will be interesting to see if there is another drop. If the temp continues to fall, then this could be the begining of the end of AGW hoax.
An interesting note – imagine how much the CO2 level has ACTUALLY fallen – considering that human CO2 emissions are adding quite a bit of CO2 – the real decline of that natural background level must be quite significant.

August 4, 2008 5:35 am

Er, it’s a lot simpler than that – each sample is just subtracted from the previous one! Perhaps ‘derivative’ is too high-falutin’ a term for it – think “differences” instead…

John-X
August 4, 2008 6:26 am

Me no like.
Temperature changes PRECEDE atmospheric CO2 changes.
Anthony’s point…
“It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months”
is worrisome. If the recent “Failure to Warm,” i.e. cooling trend, is large enough affect mean atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the oceans may indeed have switched to their longer term cool phases, e.g. cold PDO & AMO.
At the same time, Solar Cycle 24 continues to sputter – that is, when it does ANYTHING at all.
Yesterday a BMR (bipolar magnetic region) emerged on the sun, with a Cycle 24 signature (leading negative polarity in the northern hemisphere).
It was fairly large and looked as though it had the potential to produce a sunspot.
Once again, within 24 hours, that potential had faded away, and the BMR continues to weaken without having produced a spot.
This same pattern seems to happen about every 2 to 3 weeks. Solar Cycle 24 just can’t seem to get ‘er done.
So whether cause and effect or coincidence, we seem to be already in a period of cold oceans and deep solar minimum, simultaneously.
This is not good.

August 4, 2008 6:42 am

Hmmmm… CO2 drop due to people driving less?
Is that an off the cuff assumption? Does anyone have hard data on the decrease in CO2 emission due to a reduction in oil consumption?
Since it is almost predictable someone is going to claim that this is a man-made reduction, why not have crunched the numbers beforehand?

Jerker Andersson
August 4, 2008 6:48 am

Dee Norris (00:47:00) :
“It will be interesting to see if it drops below the Sept 2007 annual low (380.74) in a couple of months.
It if turns out that this is driven by the colder SST, it will help establish that the horse goes before the cart and that rising SST of the warm PDO phase drove the CO2 increase of the latter 20th Century.”
I wouldn’t expect it to actually drop below last years value. If you compare SST with growth rate of CO2 each year it correlate pretty ok. If you then make a diagram with SST on Y-axis and CO2 growth rate on X-axis it and make a linear trendline it will cross Y-axis at -0.3C roughly. That means IF the temperature is causing the whole CO2 raise, CO2 will stop raising when we reach a global temperature anomaly of rouglhy -0.3C, give or take some. I do not claim this is some peer reviewed sience but the correlation strikes you when you see it in a diagram.
When this year ends, if global temperatures stays at it’s current levels, I predict the CO2 raise for 2008 will be 1.4 +/-0.4 ppm.

John Galt
August 4, 2008 6:52 am

Well, the data must be wrong.
Either the instruments need recalibration or the data needs to be analyzed or adjusted differently. Global warming theory insists that CO2 must be going up and the computer climate models prove this.
Therefore, you’re wrong.

statePoet1775
August 4, 2008 6:58 am

Who is John Galt?

August 4, 2008 7:04 am

This is OT sorta.
If anyone wants to visit my myspace page and read my latest blog called The Slow Demise of Science. You can leave comments there if you wish. Basically, there are a lot of intelligent people here I see, and I want to see if my thoughts register with you on that posting. Any critiques are welcome too. I edited it a lot and tried make it flow well. I’m not trying to steal thunder or space from Anthony here. Just asking for a fair review from fellow intelligent minds.
http://www.myspace.com/storms_shadows_starlight
The Slow Demise of Science

Pierre Gosselin
August 4, 2008 7:05 am

Henery
100% correct.
It says a lot about society when science textbooks are written by Hollywood producers.

Francois Ouellette
August 4, 2008 7:11 am

This shows two things:
First, CO2 growth rate does depend on temperature, as is becoming more and more well known. If temps continue to fall, we might indeed see a negative growth rate, despite human emissions. BTW, Paul Clark is right in pointing out that it’s best to compare the annual growth rates (jan to jan, july to july). Given the seasonal fluctuations, it’s the best approximation to a true derivative that one can get, IMO. The only other way would be to assume some seasonal dependency (say a sine function), and substract it, but this is likely to lead to a larger error. Taking the derivative of raw, noisy data is one of the most difficult things to do when you analyze data.
Second point: global temps are now similar to what they were 20 years ago. Yet, 20 years ago, the growth rate would have been largely positive. What does that mean? It means that the global CO2 sink is now much larger than it was. The sink grows and grows with the CO2 concentration. The biosphere adapts rapidly and strongly to an increased CO2. CO2 is food. Put more food, and more will come to eat it (we feed cats in our backyard and see the same effect…) So a combination of lower temps and larger sink could rapidly get rid of the surplus CO2, if temps do get lower for a long period of time.
Final word: yes, solubility goes up when temps go down, but mostly this is the work of the biological pump. Phytoplankton works better when it’s cool. The solubility effect is rather small in the end.

kum dollison
August 4, 2008 7:22 am

369.33 May, 1998
369.35 Feb, 2000
La Nina

kum dollison
August 4, 2008 7:28 am

355.43 Apr, 1989
355.89 Dec, 1992
Pinataubo? Looks like Temp matters, huh?

kum dollison
August 4, 2008 7:35 am

380.42 Apr, 2004
379.70 Feb, 2005
La Nina
I think I’m seein a patturn, here

August 4, 2008 7:35 am

@Jerker
Possibly.
The PDO only shifted to positive with in the last couple of months. If CO2 lags by 7-9 months, then there is still the residual cooling SST to absorb additional CO2 over and above the seasonal variation.
The interesting part would be the reaction of the AGW converts.

Charles Garner
August 4, 2008 7:40 am

Lest anyone forget, the warming folks aren’t buying into the satellite data at all these days. They stick to the adjusted data. After all, appearance is everything.

August 4, 2008 8:02 am

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Annual Mean Growth Rate – seems to follow global temperatures. With zero lag. Closely. Year on year.
BTW – there are three “main” planetary/climactic harmonic periods (via orbital mechanics) and two are still running “hot”, so even if the “cold” one was the most influential (it aint) we would not be going into a new ice age as that is another 1300 years away.
We are due for a cold spell, followed by a cold spell, followed by a colder spell. Expect some years (such as 2010) to be “warm” again, but the future trend is down. Our children will face a colder world.
The truly ironically funny thing? 2013, the year the warming “begins again” (according to some) is going to be the start of an extended cold period. I hope I live to see it even though my old bones like it how it is right now (how it has been all my life).

BarryW
August 4, 2008 8:08 am

Re statePoet1775 (01:28:02) :
According to sat data sea level has been flat or falling for the last couple of years
link
Francois Ouellette (07:11:39) :
I believe the sat data is showing a “greening” which one would expect from an increase in CO2

Bill Marsh
August 4, 2008 8:10 am

Dee,
Are you suggesting that there is CO2 reduction already ‘in the pipeline’ and there’s nothing we can do about it? 🙂

Bill Illis
August 4, 2008 8:15 am

Besides the oceans, the big CO2 sinks are plants.
The usual seasonal drop from May-June to September-October is the response of growing vegetation in the more-land-weighted northern hemisphere.
Maybe we are starting to see increased plant growth responding to more CO2. In fact, if we extend the trends, maybe plants will help start to stablize CO2 levels.
With these latest number, humans are adding about 8.0 billion tons of Carbon to the Carbon cycle each year right now and oceans and plants are sinking 6.0 to 8.0 billion tons of it.
Note: CO2 levels should increasing by about 4 ppm per year with the amount of CO2 we are adding each year. Plants and oceans were previously absorbing about half of that. Maybe it is higher now, enough to almost stabilize CO2 levels. Ahh, the negative feedbacks that are not supposed to exist.

August 4, 2008 8:17 am

There were a couple of additional anomalies in 2008 that may be related.
(1) Compared to previous years, CO2 was almost flat in the January- February- March span of 2008, increasing only 0.57 ppm in 2 months. That flat period stands out in the graph.
(2) CO2 fell by more than 3 ppm in just one month, from June to July of 2008, which is also unusual.

Nick Burman
August 4, 2008 8:24 am

I have never read such twadle. To add the measurment of one site for what is effectively one time (month) and draw any conclusion at all is as unscientific as one can get. There are all kinds of things that can be surmized from this, not the least of which is a change in the output of local volcanoes…
To put this information against significantly longer trends is nothing less than stupid.

statePoet1775
August 4, 2008 8:28 am

BarryW,
Thanks for the link.

Steve Keohane
August 4, 2008 8:34 am

John Galt is a male protagonist in ‘Atlas Shrugged’. “Who is John Galt?”, is an often poised question in the story.