Foreword: As you may recall, I was invited to speak at NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) back in April about the surfacestations project by Climate Reference Network chief scientist Dr. Gary Baker. It was a good visit, and I appreciated Dr. Baker’s good humor, candor and straightforward no-nonsense scientific approach to surface measurements.
While I was there, I met with Dr. Tom Karl, as well as Dr. Peterson. During that meeting with Dr. Karl I had no hint of the type of rhetoric used in this document which is now in preparation, but Peterson was clearly trying to convince me on his position, in fact he had asked to be added to my visit schedule specifically so that he could put on his presentation for me.
To say the least, I’m shocked that NCDC’s leadership has changed from being the nation’s record keeper of weather and climatic data, to being what appears to me now as an advocacy group. The draft document reads more like a news article in many places than it does a scientific document, and unlike a scientific document, it has a number of what I would call “emotionally based graphics” in it that have nothing to do with the science.
Dr. Roger Pielke does a good job of summarizing the issue, and his commentary is below. He also clearly points out a conflict of interest. From my perspective, this is bureaucracy at its very worst.
In the meantime public comments are invited, due by August 14th, and readers of this forums may want to avail themselves of that opportunity. Here is the link for public comments
Comments On The Draft CCSP Report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”
A guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke:
The Draft report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States has been released. There is an announcement of the Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. Public comments are due by August 14 2008 [Climate Science readers are urged to submit comments].
This US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report is Co-Chaired by Thomas R. Karl, Jerry Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson with the Senior Editor and Synthesis Team Coordinator Susan J. Hassol. These are the same individuals who have led past CCSP reports (e.g. see and see), with Tom Karl and Tom Peterson deliberately excluding scientific perspectives that differ from their viewpoints (i.e. see). Susan Hassol was writer of the HBO Special “To Hot Not to Handle”. This HBO show clearly had a specific perspective on the climate change issue, and lacked a balanced perspective. The HBO Executive Producer was Ms. Laurie David.
A clear real conflict of interest is obvious.
As a result, this report continues the biased narrow perspective of the earlier CCSP reports, as has been reported on a number of times on Climate Science and in other communications (e.g. see and see). As just one example of the bias, the Karl et al report starts with the text
“The Future is in Our Hands
Human-induced climate change is affecting us now. Its impacts on our economy, security, and quality of life will increase in the decades to come. Beyond the next few decades, when warming is “locked in” to the climate system from human activities to date, the future lies largely in our hands. Will we begin reducing heat trapping emissions now, thereby reducing future climate disruption and its impacts? Will we alter our planning and development in ways that reduce our vulnerability to the changes that are already on the way? The choices are ours.”
This statement perpetuates the rejected perspective on the role of humans in the climate system that
the human influence [on the climate system] is dominated by the emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide.
The perspective that is, however, supported by a wide body of scientific evidence (e.g. see) is that
natural variations are more important than recognized in the Karl et al CCSP synthesis report and that the human influence involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2.
The remainder of the Karl et al CCSP report necessarily miscommunicates climate information since it is built on their incorrect focus on “reducing heat trapping emissions”, rather than also on the role of natural variations as observed in the past, and on the other first order climate forcings such as the role of aerosols in precipitation, nitrogen deposition and land use/land cover change (e.g. see).
For example, their claim that
“Historical climate and weather patterns are no longer an adequate guide to the future”
is not supported by the observational evidence (e.g. see where an example is presented of past data that we should use to plan for the future).
Thus the conclusion is that the US CCSP Program has failed in its mission. These reports have become stale and in-bred, since the same people are repeating their perspective on the climate issue.
The CCSP program, initiated within the Bush Administration, offered the opportunity to provide an independent assessment of the role of humans and natural variability in the climate system, as well as a comprehensive framework for reducing societal and environmental vulnerability to risk from climate variations and change through adaptation and mitigation. The CCSP process, however, has not succeeded in this goal.
As recommended in the Climate Science weblog [see] we need new scientists who are not encumbered by their prior advocacy positions on climate change to lead the preparation of balanced climate assessment reports.
The response of the media when this report is released in its final form will also be enlightening. Those reporters who parrot the synthesis without questioning its obvious bias and conflict of interest should be identified as sycophants. Those who adequately communicate the diversity of scientifically supported disagreements with the report should be lauded for the true journalist that they are.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Carsten Arnholm wrote critically about the Planetary Society. I wrote them a letter and I encourage others to do the same. My letter…
Dear Planetary Society,
Louis Friedman writes, “Sadly, much of the past decade’s rhetoric about global warming has been based on political and ideological assumptions. But at our breakfast Kennel and Moore showed that data is not ideological, and that it tells us that global warming is a reality — whether it is caused by humans or not. It is affecting our world, and must be observed, monitored, and understood. Kennel and Moore also presented data showing a convincing correlation between carbon increase in the atmosphere and human activity. Carbon increase can’t be good, and so it too must be monitored and correlated with other global change effects.
Space observations play a critical role in tracking the ongoing changes in our planet’s ecosystem. Earth-observing satellites can monitor the temperature and carbon levels in the atmosphere, on land and in the oceans, in a way that no Earth-based instruments can.”
**********************************************
I am saddened but not surprised to see the AGW party line mantra expoused by the Planetary Society. While I agree wholeheartedly that space observations should be funded and not cut back since the essence of science is measurement and data, if you look into the data yourselves instead of listening to rhetoric from your Board Members, AGW ideological advocates from Scripps and elsewhere, you’ll notice a discrepancy between satellite global measurements and NASA’s Dr Hansen’s ground observatory measurements. Satellite data over this century does NOT match the AGW prediction models while Hansen’s much massaged data matches his philosophy. There is rightful skepticism about the location of many ground stations and encroaching human construction.
Space advocates might also consider the recent anomalous behavior in sunspot cycles. More data to be taken, for those not taken with AGW ideological assumptions. It is hubris to believe that today’s computer models with insufficient variables incorporated and empirical dubious positive feedback factors assigned for CO2 accurately foretell future climate.
Sincerely,
Philip Wilson, former Plan Soc member from the earliest years
Many thanks Philip Wilson…! It is good to see someone with proper command of English write this to the Planetary Society. I hope you don’t mind if I borrow some from your letter, I was considering writing a letter as well.
It seems Northrop Grumman sponsored this edition. They probably have their reasons for doing so.
I just googled National Climatic Data Center Mission Statement. Funny thing is I could find nothing that sounds like NCDC should take part in politics. NCDC is operating outside of their mission.
Carsten Arnholm,
You or anyone else, please feel free to adapt anything you wish from my letter. The folks running these orgs do need to hear from us, each with our own point of view. Note where the Plan Soc hired those Board members from, SCRIPPS, etc. For brevity, I did not cite past eras where natural CO2 was hundreds of PERCENT higher than today and animal and plant life flourished without climate runaway. Go figure.
That being said, I fully support a concerted rational vigorous effort to transition off fossil fuels for many reasons, even including possible anthropic atmospheric alteration that we do not yet fully understand. But not economic hysteria. I’m ashamed at how the scientific profession has placed PC trendiness over vigorous testing of the radical claims of the AGW positive feedback hypothethis.
I respect the opinions of anyone who believes that groupthink and herd behavior is sufficient to explain why the Planetary Society, Economist, Science, Scientific America, Nature, National Geographic, National Climate Data Center and many, many other journals and publications, which certainly must be well aware of the verifiable fact that the climate is cooling, and that no computer model is capable of predicting anything with accuracy, and that the Mann/IPCC “hockey stick” has been discredited, and that CO2 has no measurable effect on global temperatures. We discuss these facts every day here.
If those things are factual, then you must conclude that not a single editor in chief of any of these publications has enough character or honesty to tell the truth, or to even allow skeptical debate to take place. Why is this?
I am searching for an understanding of why every one of the journals above, and many more, follow the trail blazed by Al Gore and the UN/IPCC. As I stated above, I think money is the only logical answer. We already know that James Hansen has received gifts of over a million dollars — that we know of — from foundations and organizations that support Gore’s [repeatedly falsified] version of climate dynamics. You can see the result.
Is it so hard to believe that money is the instrument that causes every one of these journals to jettison the scientific method in favor of advocacy? Brendan H attempts to spin my speculative argument by saying unemployed letter writers are available to be likewise bribed. But as I stated in my initial post, only one individual in any organization has to be bribed in order to turn that organization into an AGW/climate catastrophe advocate. The article at the top of this page is a case in point. As Anthony states:
What could cause this about-face? If there is a better explanation than money corrupting science, please tell me. I don’t want to believe that money corrupts to this extent. But there it is, everywhere you look. I would very much prefer to be proven wrong about this, and I hope someone shows me where I’m in error.
Skunks never change their stripes!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
When the coming winter proves cold and the fuel prices high.On the heels of no new domestic energy plan that would have eventually promoted real relief.
The “MOB” will suddenly drop the AGW B.S. and demand real answers.The democrats will be reeling and the republicans will be standing by in the minortity.Watching the storm break.
I am sure that mother earth cares less.With PDO in the cool phase and quiet sun.To try keeping us warm in the winter.The “mob” can understand the reality of a cold winter just fine.
Hassol is the wordsmith ringer. She’s a hired gun. The fix is in.
The report will have the tone and demeanor of the IPCC reports, each chapter sounding the same.
A good story is who “really” writes those chapters, or rewrites, or “edits.”
smokey — “If those things are factual, then you must conclude that not a single editor in chief of any of these publications has enough character or honesty to tell the truth, or to even allow skeptical debate to take place. Why is this?”
I’m going to put on my devil’s advocate hat —
***
Those things are not factual. Mann has only been discredited within the skeptical community. There are no credible skeptics. There’s weathermen like this Watts guy and some sort of pesky economics amateur in McIntyre (both of whom are driven to discredit reputable scientists, probably from some sort of psychological issue), the odd physicist here and there to spice things up because they don’t have a real understanding of the special physics involved (e.g. astronauts know a lot about the rocket equation and engineering; they’re not climate specialists). The Wegman report, that was a republican sponsored hit piece brought to you by Sen Inhofe, and everyone knows he has an axe to grind. There is not any serious climate scientist or specialist who doesn’t agree with the major tenets. Yeah there’s a couple of aging and probably senile types who are skeptical but then again it’s obvious that the world has passed guys like Lindzen by. Besides, isn’t he one of that idiot Rush Limbaugh’s golf buddies anyhow?
On top of this you also have the Bush administration trying to muzzle scientists (just ask the Union of Concerned SCIENTISTS) which is in character for an administration that obviously would be just as happy with a theocracy as science anyway. Didn’t they advocate faith based science in the classroom? Yep. They did. “Teach the (ID) controversy” says Bush. They also refused to sign Kyoto and their politics wouldn’t allow them to do so even if they were clever enough to “get it.” This is an administration that’s a fiasco and waged a war by oilmen for oil in a neverending Iraqi quagmire, so it’s no surprise that anyone with more than a single digit IQ is distancing themselves from these clowns as much as possible. Even agreeing with Bush that the sky is blue is anathema to having a career and being taken seriously.
***
Normal hat —
One problem is that the skeptical community isn’t organised. The range of skeptics is from outright denier (“Hansen’s data is faked!”) to those accepting at least part of the GW science as it stands but dubious of the economic consequences. Thus you have in this corner the AGW crowd who are all “specialists” and they have a constant message, and in this corner you have a ragtag range of stuff such that skeptics can’t even agree on what they’re skeptical about.
Which one of these sounds coherent and believable?
Adding to the pain is the association right or wrong of the skeptics with the political right, the same people who also believe in ID and a world 6000 years old (as per above the association with Bush, which is how he’s portrayed by the media.)
So now you have coherent/believable in one corner, and their opposition is not only incoherent, but seemingly just as likely to pontificate about the scopes monkey trial. In other words, a collection of kooks by way of comparison.
Do you *honestly* think it takes MONEY?
Smokey (15:10:29) : I respect the opinions of anyone who believes that groupthink and herd behavior is sufficient to explain… If those things are factual, then you must conclude that not a single editor in chief of any of these publications has enough character or honesty to tell the truth, or to even allow skeptical debate to take place. Why is this?
Assuming you are here responding at least in part to my “information cascades” reply to you, Smokey, I suggest it is not a lack of character or honesty in these people you note, but it is that they have been so influenced by the cascade that they have come to believe AGW despite any previous doubts. These “cascades” have an incredible power in the mind, to the point where black becomes white; truth becomes lie. Private and personal doubt can be washed away by the sheer, overwhelming, force of the prevailing view to the point of… madness?
I do not have the professional knowledge for a full explanation. I am running on gut feeling… but that feeling is though money or prestige may have been the original driver, and may well still drive the promoters, simple human frailty (of the mind) has allowed this lie to flourish, and to prove we have no more wisdom than those in our history who threw human sacrifices into cracks in the ground to appease the wrath of the Gods who quaked the earth apart in their anger against us (humanity).
randomengineer (19:32:08)
Nicely put.
A few recommended tag lines for the new ad campaign:
Celebrating Climate Diversity.
Careing for our variable Earth.
Winning by Adapting to Climate.
Embracing Climate Variety.
Diversity, Our People, Our Climate.
Any others?
randomengineer:
I honestly believe that:
1. Money is involved, probably to a much greater extent than is openly reported. It is a corrupting influence on climate science. “Which one of these sounds coherent and believable” It is not a question of either/or. I never said that money was the sole problem; there is not one, single reason that skeptical scientists’ opinions are smothered and hounded out.
But when a pro-AGW partisan in a highly visible position of authority is given over a million dollars by others with a pro-AGW agenda, it has a significant effect; how could it not? James Hansen is now in the position of accepting money in return for advocacy. Michael Mann and many others are recipients of grant money from foundations and others with a pro-AGW agenda. Can anyone seriously claim that the NCDC and many others others are absolutely free of tainted money? Do the people who are handing out millions to one entity suddenly decide to stop at that point, and hand out no more? They are buying advocacy. Why should they treat the NCDC, or any other influential publication, differently than they treat James Hansen? There is a reason that all the publications mentioned above are in pro-AGW lock step. And it isn’t because they’re overcome by some sort of Vulcan mind-meld, or mass hypnosis.
2. Most scientists are rational enough to look at data like this, and as a result, at the very least question the hypothesis that carbon dioxide causes global warming. This site and others are absolutely filled with skeptical data that refutes and falsifies the AGW/planetary catastrophe hypothesis. Honest scientists make decisions based on data, not emotion.
3. In determining whether to speak out, or to prudently remain silent as a job security measure, many skeptical scientists choose the latter alternative. And as we see repeatedly, those AGW skeptics whose honest opinions are made public are subject to constant scolding and really vicious ad hominem attacks.
I agree with randomengineer that the skeptical scientific community [which, if truth be told, greatly outnumbers the true believers in the AGW/CO2/climate disaster hypothesis] is essentially leaderless compared with the warmers’ soap box of NASA/GISS and the UN/IPCC. That is a problem, which makes the skeptical argument more difficult to get out to the general public. Sites like this one are doing a great service by getting the truth out, and cracks in the AGW facade are starting to appear.
The absolute refusal of those in the NASA and UN hierarchy to allow any formal debate, and indeed, their flagrant attempts to censor all skeptical opinion, shows their position to be bankrupt. But this cowardly tactic is somewhat effective in a country like the U.S., where 25% of the citizens do not believe that the Earth revolves around the Sun. If NASA and the UN say, “Planetary catastrophe!”, many people accept it as gospel.
Concerning the hard-sciences community, however, I don’t think those scientists are being made so mentally dizzy by the AGW hype, that they now believe their eyes are lying to them. Physical scientists are able to look at the data and see that the planet has been cooling, not warming; and that a further doubling of CO2 would result in an extremely minor effect compared with the initial 20% increase; and that solar and oceanic effects are insufficiently accounted for by NASA and the UN; and that factors such as water vapor have been greatly underestimated by the UN/IPCC; and that CO2 has been up to sixteen times higher in the past [even during glaciation], refuting the CO2-causes-runaway-global-warming hypothesis. Instead, many scientists simply decide that keeping their opinions to themselves is the best course of action in today’s politically-charged world; James Hansen has demanded trial and imprisonment for those espousing a skeptical position. If you were Hansen’s AGW-skeptical subordinate, would you state your position? Or would you keep it to yourself in order to get your next promotion?
I stand by everything I said about the corrupting influence of money on climate science. The Grantham Foundation, for example, gives multi-million dollar grants to Treehugger.org, and to the Yale Climate Media Forum, and to many similar AGW promoters. And there are many similar donors, like the Tides Foundation, the Heinz Foundation, the David Foundation, etc., which give millions of dollars to influential individuals such as Hansen and Mann — and they give not one dollar to skeptical scientists, or to skeptical organizations. And those gifts are what is on the public record. It is naive to believe that other, unrecorded payoffs never take place.
Money has thoroughly corrupted the climate sciences. That is my central point. I’m not trying to argue with anyone here, or discount their belief that other factors are involved. But money — and plenty of it — is the main corrupting influence in the climate science community. The NCDC is only the latest casualty. Which one will be next?
Is this the NCDC Mission Statement:
Mission Statement
The National Climatic Data Center isresponsible for the stewardship and
access to the Nation’s climate-related data and information, and is also responsible for assessing and monitoring the national and global climate.
or this:
The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is the world’s largest active archive of weather data. NCDC’s mission is to manage the Nation’s resource of global climatological in-situ and remotely sensed data and information to promote global environmental stewardship; to describe, monitor and assess the climate; and to support efforts to predict changes in the Earth’s environment. This effort requires the acquisition, quality control, processing, summarization, dissemination, and preservation of a vast array of climatological data generated by the national and international meteorological services. NCDC’s mission is global in nature and provides the U.S. climate representative to the World Meteorological Organization, the World Data Center System, and other international scientific programs. NCDC also operates the World Data Center for Meteorology, Asheville.
??
Do either of these allow AGW advocacy?
When the “scientists” at the NCDC demonstrate that they can take an accurate temperature reading with a minimal level of competence in accordance with basic scientific standards, they can try their hand at trying to figure out what temperature patterns might mean. Until then, they lack sufficient credibility to tell me it’s raining outside.
Can you imagine how much fun it would be to cross-examine one of these clowns as an “expert witness” in a trial? Contrast their doom and gloom scenarios backed up by consensus climate “science” with the fact that these scientists never even bother to check each others work. No one ever checked the temperature stations to see if they were competently sited. No one ever asked for the help of the world’s experts in modeling or forecasting.
They just keep bumbling along in their own little bubble — driven by faith and oblivious to their own incompetence.
You could completely pop the AGW alarmist bubble with one well-written 30 minute TV show making fun of the charade. Imagine George Carlin’s riff, but expanded to include the whole joke.
(warning — typical Carlin language)
My comment to the NCDC, referencing its obvious inclusion of the Mann Hockey Stick in this review draft, was:
Subject: Unscientific Figure
Subject: Figure on pdf pg. 19 entitled “Heat-trapping gases, regional effects”
Caption: This 1000-year record tracks the rise in carbon emissions due to human activities (fossil fuel burning and land clearing) and the subsequent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and air temperatures. The earlier parts of the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction shown here are derived from historical data, tree rings, and corals, while the later parts were directly measured.
Suggested change: Delete both Figure and Caption.
Rationale: the Mann tree-ring Hockey Stick reconstruction has been definitively shown to be unscientific, with a supportive finding to this effect by the NAS. NCDC’s inclusion of Figure fully discredits NCDC’s whole Report. Ipcc’s 4AR has also recognized the incorrect nature of the Figure and has thus not carried it through from the TAR. The venerable NCDC must not be seen as being “behind the curve”, especialy that curve.
Contact: [etc.]
[Small note: I corrected “especialy” prior to sending the above comment.]
Re journalistic sales and theories of human behavior…
I’m tempted to say that it all boils down to money:
After all, which sells more journals / newspapers?
“Dog Bites Boy” (or)
“Dog Attack Menace Grows Worldwide”
Who but a blockhead would buy yesterday’s news about a mildly fluctuating sun and clouds when he can be titillated by well-modeled scenarios of catastrophic, world-in-the-balance, end-of-times?
But it’s more complicated than reader polls. Today’s NY Times Environment, for example, ran an article on jellyfish plagues brought on by global warming:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/science/earth/03jellyfish.html?ref=environment
Rosenthal could have just written an article about the recent increase of jellyfish stings near a beach in Barcelona (no particular beach is cited). Instead, she implies this is world-wide event (it may well be), and demonstrates how writers, editors, readers, victims (fishermen and tourists), scientists, political leaders are all caught up in the mass-delusion.
Some readers might conceive the following truths to be self-evident:
On some level this writer is afraid that her editor and even her readers would not tolerate the omission of global warming references. The scientists themselves, whose funding may be tenuous, must raise the specter of “something bigger”, since crisis = sinecure; once invoked, the words must be repeated in the article, or the writer would be negligent. On the positive side, she knows she can please her editor and titillate readers by linking her work to the catch-phrase, which will send the latter off to other corners of the ‘zine. Wily politicians must give lip-service to the larger threat to demonstrate that they are pro-active to their constituents. Constituents must demand… etc., etc, etc.
Most of us who have been stung by a jellyfish remember the event viscerally. This is a shrewd writer who understands that gut reaction and takes advantage of it. I can even manage a bit of a shiver down the spine when, at the end of the article, a disfigured fisherman emerges from the water (see the picture of his hands on p. 2), and says, “There are more every year — we saw hundreds offshore today… You just have to learn how to handle the stings.”
Re: the earlier suggestion of a powerful rich man leading the way for skeptics with a massive lawsuit.
The only people with that kind of money and the scientists to back it up are, unfortunately, oil and chemical companies. AGW is the laughingstock of every engineering college I have talked to, but Engineers are highly tied into industry, and there are no “clean hands” to fight with.
Now for the kicker. Big Oil is tired of being the bad guy. They cannot and will not fight even the most absurd of environmental regulations (ie: the Texas requirement than diesel engines cannot be run before noon. This regulation includes those that the plant ordered at Home Depot and Walmart for power washing). Fighting against the environmental movement is even worse than fighting the AARP. You cannot win without losing even worse in the court of public opinion.
[…] report for better impact 4 08 2008 Last week on Friday August 1st you may recall that I commented on the release of the Draft report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United […]
This is my scenario. In about 2010, when the ability of producing sufficient energy has been reduced, the present cooling cycle will begin to seriously affect the production of food and necessities. At that point the people will dump the the global warming advocates, but it will take another ten years to recover. The years from 2010 to 2020 will be miserable and deadly world wide. Prepare.
[…] pulls the CCSP report 20 08 2008 Regular readers may recall on August 1st a posting where I stated my views on the NCDC report being produced by Dr.’s Thomas Karl and Peterson of NCDC called Global Climate Change Impacts […]