“Catastrophic Shifts in Climate Feared if Change Occurs”
In case you missed it, this article in the New York Times illustrates what some scientists believe is a very serious issue, and they are speaking out on it. Here is a snapshot of the article:
You can read the entire article in PDF form at this link
There’s just one thing wrong with this article, besides that it is flat wrong. Oh I know, there will be those that insist it may come true. However, there’s one bit of context that is worth exploring.
The article, as seen above, was published February 20th, 1969
See the date stamp at the bottom of the PDF
On the flip side, here is an article from 1922 where the ice is actually melting fast:
Deja Vu all over again: climate worries of today also happened in the 20’s and 30’s
Hat tip to: John Goetz
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The New York Times predicting future events reminds me of Bob Ueker’s advice to baseball-playing Michael Jordan:
“Keep swinging! Eventually the ball will hit the bat.”
via IceCap:
http://www.miamiherald.com/living/story/614195.html
Re: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php?img=icef …and time machines:
Look at the forecast date:
ISSUED: Wednesday 23 July 2088
FORECAST VALID: Monday 28 July 2008
Another projection that can hindcast the future, er is it forecast the past?
“Years ago, maybe 50, I read somewhere that an hypothesis explaining where all the water came from that fell on Canada as snow to build up the 2 mile thick Canadian Ice Shield of the last Great Ice Age was from an ice free Polar Ocean. Who knows, it had to come from somewhere.”
And, going back even further, 55 million years ago the Arctic was subtropical. Gives me a smile whenever the current stories say, “For the first time ever, the North Pole may be free of ice…”
World keeps spinnin’…..
Worth checking out this story “UN Climate Committe (IPCC) challenged by ‘gang of 4’ scientists. Is UN Officialdom split? ” at http://www.weatheraction.com/
THE WEEK IN SCIENCE: OUR MELTING NORTH; New Evidence Supports Geology’s View That the Arctic Is Growing Warmer
By WALDEMAR KAEMPFFERT.
Section: SPECIAL FEATURES EDUCATION-SCIENCE, Page XX7, 2972 words
TWO pieces of evidence were recently presented to substantiate the views held by most geologists that some day there will be no frozen North and that vessels will sail in Arctic seas now imperilled by ice floes.
_______________________
From the New York Times, January 28, 1934,
Look, I know it’s fun to point and say “Hey! Look at what they believed back then!”, but let’s be honest; are the sentiments of “climate scientists” from before the age of climatology really worth anything? To me, criticizing the climatological claims of 40 years ago is like criticizing the daily forecasts of the Weather Bureau back when it was part of the Army Signal Corps… oh wait, they didn’t make daily forecasts!
Any “climate science” from before the days of satellite data and GCM’s is really not worth anything in my book. It’s fun to reminisce about, though, I suppose.
twawki (01:03:59) Here is one for your diary; a story Anthony linked to some time ago:
Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.
Nov. 2, 1922 edition of The Washington Post:
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/#comments
yes, the NYT has a problem, it’s Bush and the economy. I wonder if Obama can save them. LOL
RE: counters(05:27:03),
That argument is rather lame. Past civilizations were far more advanced than ours today and they did not have the equipment you mentioned above. So just because in the past we didn’t have the equipment it should be discredited? That’s pretty lame.
I read this article on a political blog 2 years ago. The point is rather obvious – that scientists and explorers 85 years ago worried about artic ice melt. If one remembers that ice flows threatened Atlantic shipping just a decade before (ie the Titanic), it isn’t difficult to surmise that the Artic itself sees rapid gains and losses in its ice cover. For it wasn’t 2 decades later that cold waters returned to the artic circle and the issue was quickly forgotten.
The Alarmist’s narrative would have us believe that the Artic Circle had a constant, thick, and extensive cover of ice until the 1980s. The opposite is probably more true.
…are the sentiments of “climate scientists” from before the age of climatology really worth anything? No more than the climate alarmism of today, counters. And, as has been pointed out, at least the article, despite the alarmist headline gave the skeptics side of things as well.
Any “climate science” from before the days of satellite data and GCM’s is really not worth anything in my book.
Yes, today we have “hockey sticks”, a huge improvement.
So…
You are disenchanted with the New York Times. What took you so long?
In the 1930’s, the NYT helped cover up and excuse acts of genocide that were to be on a par with the Nazi’s horror ten years later.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Duranty
Here is a rhetorical question:
What kind of person would read and trust the New York Times?
Apparently from their report on their profits there are not many.
Regards,
Steamboat Jack
PS
I realize that this is a scientific blog, but I would recommend a political history book to the readership. “The Black Book of Communism” was written in French to document the “dark side” of Communism. (Translated and published in the US by Harvard University Press) They writers used historical records newly available in the formerly Communist countries after the fall of Communism. As an understanding of science is necessary to understand the AGW debate, an understanding of history is necessary to understand the current political debate and to assess current political figures.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Book_of_Communism
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Book-Communism-Crimes-Repression/dp/0674076087
But what if the wind stops blowing?
Live from the North Pole
web cam:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html
it is updated daily
plenty of ice up there
“Look, I know it’s fun to point and say “Hey! Look at what they believed back then!”, but let’s be honest; are the sentiments of “climate scientists” from before the age of climatology really worth anything?”
Of course not. Just as today’s “predictions” are also worthless. Until some of these models have actually been scrutinized and validated, they are worthless. Speculation with some equations thrown in to give them a patina of legitimacy.
In a related story, The Anchorage Daily reports:
“Right now the so-called summer of ’08 is on pace to produce the fewest days ever recorded in which the temperature in Anchorage managed to reach 65 degrees.”
http://www.adn.com/life/story/473786.html
Too bad Charts show that the Arctic ice is increasing in size!
It’s dark! It’s dark! The sun has died. We’re all going to die!
Oh, wait, this has happened before.
Last night.
Never mind.
A friend in Anchorage says she’s freezing (various parts of her anatomy) off.
counters:
//but let’s be honest; are the sentiments of “climate scientists” from before the age of climatology really worth anything?//
I think we are in total agreement. Except maybe we have a different idea about when the “age of climatology” will begin .
counters:
It sounds like your are suggesting that pre-satellite era data is not worth considering. I’m sure I’m not the only one who would have problems with that. But if so, isn’t it interesting then that it’s precisely the satellite data on e.g. the the two Poles which tells us that there is some 1,000,000 sq km more ice in the Arctic this year compared to last year, that over the past two years Antarctic sea ice concentrations have set absolute high records,, that both SST satellite data and Argos deep ocean satellite data tell us the oceans are cooling at all depths, and that all this works out to the observation that the global climate system as a whole is shedding joules?
As for GCMs, for elementary reasons these are so flawed as to be dangerously useless.
counters:
“Let’s be honest.. ..before the age of climatology really worth anything.”
Simple laymen observations are the root of many research ideas. The computer models are only crude tools constructed to try and figure out what a human has observed. To say that the people that observed nature back then were more primitive than us is incorrect. We have yet to best Einstein and many other scientists of that time.
My litmus test is simple. When scientists can predict a simple hurricane seasons to within 10-15% accuracy I am willing to believe long term climate projections. You might say that they are not related. I say that the tools, data and real-time observations come from the same sources. The computer models are not the same, but the math and science, behind them are equal in their sophistication, and related in their goals.
We are incapable of predicting hurricane seasons currently. 2006 & 2007 are proof of that. A properly working hurricane modeling tool would have predicted slower 2006 and 2007 seasons.
Climate is no different. To say that the climate will do this or that in fifty or hundred years is fine. I will simply not believe it until you also can give a road map of how we get there. I think the 10-15% accuracy means that, 5-10 year cycles between now and then should be predicted today and observed in future years. The IPCC must provide such a road map. They don’t. No one can. Therefore it is ridiculous to make policy based on the current primitive predictions. I don’t have to be a scientist to make that observation. Any layman can.
Much ado about nothing…
Eventually, NYT’s coverage of an ice free north pole may be correct if they keep publishing fantasies like that.
BTW, it’s interesting counters alluded to satellite data. Satellite data of the earth’s temperatures are much more reliable than the doctored surface temperatures used by Hansen but I doubt counters agrees since based on his previous posts he seem to favor AGW. And, counters, why do you hide behind the pseudonym? Are you really Hansen, or Mann, or Jones, or Rabbet, or …..
SDA has the latest stock price graph of NYT up. I intuit that NYT will cease trading on the NYSE before the Arctic is open ocean.