impassable
im·pass·a·ble [im-pas-uh-buhl]
–adjective
1. not passable; not allowing passage over, through, along, etc.: Heavy snow made the roads impassable.
2. unable to be surmounted: an impassable obstacle to further negotiations.
There has been a lot of hype this year citing data which is suggesting that we’ll be able to navigate the Northwest Passage and some even so bold as to suggest a completely ice free Arctic Sea. You could say: “A picture is always worth 1000 data points.”
I’d say “impassable” fits this picture pretty well:
Image rotated- click for source image. Credit: Terra/MODIS true color
Some reference views to help you get your bearings, here is what the area would be like if “ice free” as some folks are predicting to happen this summer:
And here is the overall photo area with more familiar landmasses visible:
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But the media never lies. They’re fair and balanced…right?
This is very upsetting.
I had booked passage on the USS Al Gore for a close look at the boiling seas around the north pole.
So much for that North Pole water ski spectacular I was planning. I’ll have to tell the topless ski babes that they’ll have to wait until The Goreacle & Hansen have managed to make Mother Gaia adjust her behavior to their unassailable data.
Jack,
If you have access to the ‘WayBack’ machine and could join the Navy’s nuclear sub program, then you could see an ice free North Pole area. Set the timer for 1987, or the 1930s.
http://www.john-daly.com/NP1987.jpg
It was 5.5 degrees C at the North Pole today.
And of course, the daily snapshot of sea ice. Lotsa ice there, well into Summer.
“Aye, Caesar, but not gone.”
Hmmm. That looks more ice-jammed than the summer I was flying over that area in 1962.
Daily sea ice maps going back to 1979:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh
The Chukchi Sea is just as bad.
[…] have organized a bunch of tour ships to sail the northwest passage. Sadly, Watts Up With that reports the Northwest Passage is totally impassable. Last year a warmist tour to see the supposedly ice free lands of Antarctica got crushed between […]
Here are the Artic ice cover images for this day July-2nd from 2008 back to 2001 :
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20080702.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20070702.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20060702.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20050706.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20040702.jpg
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20030702.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20020702.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20010702.png
(2005 only had Jul6th)
This year has significantly more ice than last year. And while this year is a little lower than other years, it doesnt seem significant.
An animation sequence would be nice.
Are those Google Earth Views the ones that ecotourists use when planning their trips to see the melting polar ice cap aboard icebreakers? Or when planning treks across Greenland’s melting glacier cover?
When fantasy and reality collide, reality will always win out.
But the media never lies. They’re fair and balanced…right?
Why, number of my friends would disagree strongly.
They think ABC, NBC, CBS, The New York Times, and Washington Post are right-wing propaganda rags who toady to (and are in the pay of) the industrial fascists who own and run this country.
(A/k/a “Life in New York City”.)
“some even so bold as to suggest a completely ice free Arctic Sea.”
You mean that there are claims we will see this happen this year?
So which scientists have made that claim?
None?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
REPLY: Here you go, the name isn’t “straw man” but rather Mark Serreze. He’s a senior researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colo.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=61847§ionid=3510208
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/06/27/north.pole.melting/index.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=5265092&page=1
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25419299/
And this one from your part of the world:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/feature/story.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10518139
You must not get out much. Might want to research a bit before tossing out the straw man argument.
A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.
This was written November 13, 2007 as a press release by NASA located here http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-131
The authors have the audacity to suggest:
“Our study confirms many changes seen in upper Arctic Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by global warming,” said Morison.
Of course Brit Hume covered it on the Political Grapevine, a place where succulent bits of truth still survive. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,311884,00.html
But the mainstream media did not give it “exclusive” status since it doesn’t fit the template.
REPLY: Hi Ryan, I reported on this last year, see this
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/
Geez Anthony, do I really need to explain the difference between “ice free Arctic” and “ice free North Pole” to you?
except for one misleading headline (the ABC I think) all of those articles were refering to the possible melting of a large area of thin one season ice that covers an area around the north pole, none of the articles claim an ice free arctic this year.
The NZ Herald story you link to speculates about an ice free arctic – but in 5-10 years.
While your enthusiasm for your cause is commendable, perhaps you should slow down and critically analyse stories before blogging about them, this isn’t the first time in the last couple of weeks that you’ve got the wrong end of the stick.
REPLY: Ok lets look:
CNN- “The North Pole may be briefly ice-free by September as global warming melts away Arctic sea ice, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.”
ABC – “The distinct possibility that this summer — for the first time in recorded history — the North pole could be free of sea ice, is now a common subject of discussion among the world’s climate experts.”
MSNBC-AP “There’s a 50-50 chance that the North Pole will be ice-free this summer, which would be a first in recorded history, a leading ice scientist says.
And by some mechanism you think that there will still be ice at lower latitudes while there’s none at 90N? To borrow your phrase; Do I really have to explain the differences between 90N and 80N from a air temperature and solar irradiance perspective? Do you really think if the ice is gone at 90N there will be some left at 80N? I consider it unlikely, just as unlikely that we’ll have and ice-free north pole.
As for the NZ Herald article, yes 5-10 years, stock Hansenisms. Knew that going in. Just trying to make you feel at home. Sometimes people across the pond get upset when I only quote American media. Sorry for that, I won’t attempt that next next time.
The way you phrased your comment, you set yourself up as if you’d never heard these stories. Then toss out straw man, maybe it is you who should slow down before wording comments? I honestly thought you hadn’t heard of these stories. Or was that just a setup? Just asking, hard to read where you were coming from.
Wrong end of the stick? Not a problem, anyone who can’t make mistakes must be superhuman. If I didn’t make mistakes, I wouldn’t be learning anything. Feel free to point out mistakes anytime, but please kindly leave tired stereotypical rhetoric like “straw man” behind. Next thing you know you’ll have a snotty non de plume and call us deniers. 😉
Cheers, no hard feelings. – Anthony
P.S realclimate explains it all better than I can:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/06/north-pole-notes/
Regards
Yes Anthony, I did know about these reports and that they refered specifically to that thinner ice presently near the pole.
I also initially assumed that you were also aware of these reports and understood their true nature and that you were deliberately misrepresenting them by refering to a completely ice free Arctic Sea. If that were the case describing your post as a “straw man argument” would be accurate.
Apologies if I was in error in my assumption that your misrepresentation was deliberate.
Now frankly I’m not sure what to think, you seem to now be claiming that thin ice at 90N can’t melt ahead of thicker ice at 80N and that therefore if the ice at 90N melts through, all of the arctic ice must go.
Sorry, but I don’t see that as a line of reasoning that would hold up to scrutany.
Certainly no hard feelings, I agree entirely that we need to learn from our mistakes. All I can add is that before we can learn from them, we have to be able to recognise that we’ve made them, and humble pie isn’t usually very sweet.
A lot of these news reports talk about an ice free north pole for the first time “in recorded history”. Of course, to have recorded history, there has to be a recorder. One has to wonder, what was the state of the ice cover at the north pole during the Viking era?
At that time, Vikings were raising cattle in Greenland. As some of the ice retreats from the coastal regions of Greenland today, some of the Viking farms are being revealed, for the first time in “recorded history”. Vikings weren’t much for recording things, which is why we don’t know what was going on to the detail we know now. I was surprised to hear there were about 400 farms during that era in Greenland.
It wouldn’t surprise me to find out the north pole, and large areas of the polar region, was free of ice at that time; at least during the high summer time. Yet, the polar bear and its prey, the seal, survived that time period quite nicely. As the SUV and coal fired power plants had not existed at the time, one has to assume the warming was not man-made.
Several months ago it had been reported, in the NYTimes no less, that Greenlanders are enjoying fresh vegetables for the first time in a long time.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/28/world/europe/28greenland.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
Two observations here:
1) We are really seeing a repeat of history, as the Vikings easily matched the agricultural prowess of today’s polar inhabitants, and,
2) Polar warming has its benefits.
Another thing that sort of bugs me.
The AGW crowd keeps talking about how ‘thin’ the ice is around the north pole. If true, why hasn’t this warm globe of ours had an easier time of melting the ice cover this year? After all, thinner ice should be easier to melt. The only possible explanation, there is less heat available to do the job. Which means, the planet is cooling.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
And there is the matter of soot, from Chinese coal plants, contributing to the melting of the ice cover. Again, something other than global warming at the root of thinner polar ice cover.
It is also possible, with all the variations at play here, we could see the north pole clear of ice, while other regions of the polar sea are covered in ice. Every time I read something from someone who actually works with these issues, they try to caution people about drawing any conclusions about global warming being the principal cause of ice melting up there. Winds, tides, currents and other local variables cause wide variations in the thickness and areas covered by ice.
Regards
Realclimate is anything but objective.
Actually it would be most unusual for the NW Passage to be open yet. The time of least ice is almost invariably second half of August and most of September.
The NWP is spoken of as though it was one route when in fact there are many theoretically possible routes. They all start through Lancaster Sound. The media tend to draw the obvious line straight West from here to McClure Strait and on. However this is an icebreaker route only as the area after McClure Str. there is almost certain to be heavy sea ice at all times. The viable route is south down Peel Sound to the N. Canadian coast and then W. However Peel S. is probably never ice free, tho’ last year was relatively easy (Don’t quote me but 2/10s ice ??) The least ice thereafter is found by going clockwise round King William Is. through Rae Str. and Simpson Str. The latter on the S. side of King W. Is. is shallow and so only small to medium vessels can go this way. Others (e.g. the occasional ice-strenthened cruise ship) would have to choose an alternative; probably Victoria Str. to the W. of King W. Is. However this is almost always beset by ice which blows down from the N. and is trapped by the islands there (Franklin). Thereafter a clear passage until into the Beaufort Sea where there is usually an open passage some 20 miles wide along the N. coast, but this can quickly reduce to Zero in a N. wind. From Point Barrow onwards no problem.
The above all refers to ‘The Season’ as given above and it is short.
My wife and I are both experienced cruising ‘yachties’ and last summer had the opportunity to help sail a yacht (49′) from Cambridge Bay on Victoria Is. round to Nome, Alaska. The yacht had its timing right. It had left Greenland on 10th August. We joined on 25th August (4 on board) and were through Bering Str. on 10th Sept. They had only moderate Ice in Peel Sound, but we had none thereafter – a disappointment.
I have some thoughts on this lack of ice in the Beaufort sea. There is a significant current running N through the Bering Str. A knot and a half and 50 miles wide is a lot of water. We know that the PDO ‘flipped’ last year. My thought is that that was ‘warm’ water going north. I have seen an animation of last summers’ ice loss and it clearly shows the ice receeding rapidly N. of the Bering Str. which would fit. Just a thought. The ice in other parts of the Arctic did not appear to be markedly different from recent years.
Incidentally surprisingly few vessels have traversed any route through the NWP. Not counting multiple passages and as at end of 2006, and according to a list I was given, 73 in total and of these 23 yachts. That is not to say that vessels working in that area (e.g. Canadian CG vessels) would not be well capable of doing so but have reason to do so
Thomas Gough (UK)
Bill Marsh gave the URL for the John Daly picture showing three submarines in largely ice free water at the North Pole in 1987. The whole of the report re arctic ice is worth reading. (John Daly died in 2004)
http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
Thomas Gough
The Northwest Passage is not impassable.
The first recorded passage of the “impassable” Northwest Passage was completed in 1906 by Roald Amundsen in the Gjøa. When they were due north of Kansas (way due north) they met a whaling ship out of San Francisco. Apparently the captain of the whaling ship didn’t know that he wasn’t supposed to be there.
The Gjøa is on display at the Maritime Museum at Bygdøy, Oslo.
During WWII a Royal Canadian Mounted Police vessel, St Roch, took 28 months to cross from west to east completing the journey in 1942. In 1944 she took only 86 days to complete the return trip. From 27 months to 86 days? That’s GOT to be proof of Global Warming. The St Roch did it again in 1950
The St Roch is on display at the Vancouver Maritime Museum.
Since then it has been done in many times including by a supertanker and a cruise ship the MS Explorer that later sank off Antarctica.
The MS Explorer is on display at the bottom of the ocean.
J. Goetz Replies: The MS Explorer? Isn’t that the name of Bill Gates’ yacht?
Heh, not a very smart idea to look at it in July, not that the majority of the commenters seem to notice. The minimum occurs around September in the northern hemisphere.
Take a look at this graph:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png