BUMPED for visibility. Originally published on 6/24. Bumped on 6/28 and again on 6/30
This poll will gauge reader perception to the issue that Dr. Hansen of NASA has recently raised that I cover in my post here. One vote per computer, and please spread this permalink to the poll far and wide to get a good mix of input across the blogosphere.
Click on a dot, then click the little yellow vote icon. Poll closed.
I will run this poll 1 week until next Wednesday at 9AM PST, at which time it will close. The results will be submitted to a member of the U.S. Senate for distribution, NASA’s director, and will also be mailed to Dr. Hansen at NASA GISS.
You can subscribe to the results of this poll by RSS. Simply copy the link below into your RSS reader.
http://polldaddy.com/pollRSS.aspx?id=49940E93EC30ACAF
NOTE: A couple of Pro-Hansen sites have staged a “crash party” for this poll. This has accounted for a huge increase in the votes for the first question overnight. This sometimes happens with online polls when agenda driven activists decide to skew it, which is the biggest weakness of online polls.
Addendum: Some other sites that are not Pro Hansen have also now linked to this poll, so I suppose it is becoming a battle between opposing views now. Agenda driven activists on both sides are at work now.
Update 7/1 It appears that about 8000 votes were added for question 1 overnight. -Anthony
Update 7/2 9 AM PST Poll is closed, more here
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Andrew W (19:05:19) says “Perhaps the problem is the limited number of people who read this blog.”
Reality:
Blog Stats
Total 1,560,886
Average Per Day 10,054
Average Visit Length 1:17
Last Hour 501
Today 10,246
This Week 70,377
You make valid points Anthony and M. Jeff,
Clearly with over 10,000 visits to this site a day and only ~5600 votes cast, most of the votes are in fact from this sites own readership.
REPLY: Actually I can’t tell where the votes come from. Nobody can, so you are just making an assumption that may or may not be true. All I know is I got some notices as pingbacks (which I don’t always post) from other blogs where they were saying they were inviting readers to crash the poll in support of Hansen. Last night question 1, at about 3000 total votes had about 100 votes, today after those invitations on other blogs question 1 votes soared while the others did not.
“you are just making an assumption that may or may not be true.”
Fair enough, but if you’re holding a vote, and as long as people only vote once (who knows if there is multiple voting) I don’t see that you have grounds to reject the result as unfair. Your description of “agenda driven activists” applies to you and your supporters also.
REPLY: Who’s rejecting the results? And where have I said “unfair”? I made a note below the poll because some commenters where wondering why question #1 shot up overnight. I pointed out the poll had a weakness and why. Again I think you are making assumptions.
The poll service has a mechanism to keep people from voting more than once. You can read about it at polldaddy.com
If my intent was an agenda, then why didn’t I write: “vote on the poll to undermine Dr. Jim Hansen”, whereas some of the other websites that drove traffic here wrote in favor of supporting him, and ecouraged the activity.
As the great Oscar Wilde once said: “There is only one thing worse in life than being talked about….and that is not being talked about.” The hijack response to your poll is entirely understandable given the ever increasing influence of your excellent blog and the ever more desperate position in which AGW proponents find themselves. I would treat it as a compliment that this poll merits such a dedicated effort from its detractors – clearly your articles carry as much weight with them as they do with your many regular readers.
In any case, I believe a court case would, in reality, be the last thing the AGW crowd would want, given the inherent weakness of their case.
Liberals do not beleive in science. They do not beleive in allowing debate. They do not beleive free speech.
Bill Marsh (04:56:46) – why let such details get in the way of a good soundbite. That might involve some actual thinking 😉
I find activists in general to be a pretty mindless bunch – just through social circles I’ve met so many over the years. Most are not nearly as smart as they like to think they are, and mistake being ‘informed’ or ‘educated’ with sharing the same opinion. Even in University when someone quoted some number (like tons of wheat per cow, species lost, etc.) and I’d merely ask where they got that number from, or some details on how that number may have been arrived at they’d get mad, but they certainly wouldn’t be able to provide a reliable source.
I actually started to really doubt the AGW theories the more I read sites like realclimate and desmogblog and realised they were more interested in attacking anyone who questioned their dogma, or in particular their models. That, and when I found out exactly how shoddy that Oreske’s paper was (by actually reading it). That it was published at all, never mind with such a glaring error as a missing keyword made me really suspect the emphasis on ‘peer-review’ – at the very least there seem to be two different standards of scrutiny applied. They’re not beyond fudging data to support their theories – that’s pretty clear now; they lie over and over again and cherry-pick whatever data they haven’t fudged.
If they really had the truth behind them, why would it be necessary to resort to such propagandistic tactics? Why the need to manipulate an internet poll, this need to control what people think in every forum they can? I find it odd that AGW proponents use the phrase ‘denier’ in reference to the Holocaust, but it is they who are always on the hunt for dissent, and who try to expel it from every dark corner much like the Nazis hunted Jewish families hiding in walls and underneath floorboards.
I think alarm is being ramped up now precisely because there has NOT been a warming trend in the 2000s. I see so many sites that claim that it IS still warming, and this is flat out – ‘scuse the language – bullshit. The models are wrong, I think J. Hansen knows they’re wrong, but he has so much ego invested in them that he can’t afford to be shown wrong so he and his acolytes at RC, etc. are on the attack and have thousands of mindless activists to do their dirty work. I see Hansen’s call to put oil executives on trial as a sign of utter desperation.
Ironically, while writing this, some Jehovah’s witnesses came to my door. I had a brief chat with them. They could tell I didn’t agree with them, and left a booklet and made their way after a few minutes. They were certainly far more polite, accepting of disagreement and less dogmatic than most AGW-prosthelytizers are.
As for Hansen, this is just another length of rope that he’ll eventually hang himself with. He seems to be getting crazier; if this summer ends up being cooler too he may very well just go off the deep end.
When you do distribute results to Congress and others, kindly document the sites that called for stuffing the ballot box. Include both the site and the URL that calls for the “crash party”. The suggestion to time-line results compared to the timing of calls to stuff the ballot box is good.
I shall file your results, and file the sites and URLs under “despicable tactics”.
One the other hand, perhaps dissenting web sites should be made aware of this tactic? With a URL to the poll?
Thank you.
Re:
“NOTE: A couple of Pro-Hansen sites have staged a “crash party” for this poll. This has accounted for a huge increase in the votes for the first question. This sometimes happens with online polls when agenda driven activists decide to skew it, which is the biggest weakness of online polls.”
Heh, fair enough Anthony, but it does seem that many of your regulars are upset at the wider distribution that the poll has had, even (and bizarrely) labelling other peoples decision to vote as attempts to suppress free speech.
Regards
I voted “Congress should put energy execs on trial as Hansen suggests” because the US Congresscritters and Hansen should be given every chance to beclown themselves. We need them to stand up so that we may publicly ridicule the tards. For heavens sake, it is past time that we allow the nutroots to own the narrative. We have to be able to subject them to well deserved public scorn and what better way?
well that would show hw crazy it is and I am sure some voted jsut to say ok we did what you say now what?
Hi Anthony,
I’m not familiar with the PollDaddy software, but I’m assuming you chose something reasonably secure, that can at least block casual attempts at multiple-voting.
Assuming that everyone can vote only once, I don’t believe that terms like “skew” and “ballot stuffing” are appropriate here, it’s just “voting”. Even if it’s an orchestrated campaign, it’s an open online poll and every vote is legitimate as long as there is only one vote per person.
What I don’t get is why there are so few votes in total, 6092 votes after 4 days up. With 10,000 page views per day (and no, I don’t know how that converts to individual readers) I’d have expected a larger turnout. It’s only two extra clicks from reaching the page, after all.
REPLY: The poll software does have a vote stuffing blocker. But, there is a site that gives instructions on how to defeat this poll system, with the lame caveat “but we don’t encourage it”. See here Like server hacking, just about any online poll security can be gotten around. I don’t have access to the “works” of the poll, so I don’t know if there has been repetitive voting or not.
The total page views are for the entire site and all of it’s pages, including the over 650 stories that have been filed thus far. So any particular story will have far less. This post has 4,059 views directly, but I have no tracker for the poll indirectly as “main page” views.
Anthony: I haven’t read every comment on this thread, so this question might have been answered, but is there any way the daily or hourly results can be plucked from polldaddy’s results?
REPLY: Possibly, but I have to spend money to subscribe to the premium service to find out. Haven’t decided if I’m going to do that or not.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080627.corex28/BNStory/specialComment/home
For those who missed the well written article called SCIENCE BY INTIMIDATION by a commentator at the Globe and Mail in Toronto
How about exiling Hansen in perpetuity to the South Pole station?
I don’t think it is too much of an exaggeration to compare the likes of Hansen with Joe Stalin’s favorite biologist, Lysenko– the same ideologically-driven perversion of genuine science, which is characterized by free inquiry into physical processes.
I posted the following comment on dotearth:
What about Big Auto? They gave us SUVs, mini-vans, and the Hummer that need the gasoline provided by Big Oil.
What about Big Appliance? They make washers and dryers and refrigerators that need the electricity provided by Big Coal.
Same goes for Big Consumer Electronics, as their televisions, sound systems, and gaming machines not only consume loads of electricity, they don’t even turn completely off when one turns them off!
Don’t forget Big Agriculture. Not only are their fertilizers carbon-based, but they insist on transporting their goods all over the world on vehicles and ships requiring Big Oil’s dirty product.
What about Big Technology? Have you seen how much energy Google’s server farms require, or how much power the top-500 supercomputers demand? Whoever let that happen needs to spend some serious time behind bars next to Big Coal!
What about Big Homebuilding? As a practice, they have not been installing solar on the roof, on-demand hot water in the basement, and adding extra insulation in the attic. Hard labor for them!
All of those above have done nothing but keep the poor, unwitting public addicted to their destructive product. After all, we have very simple alternatives right in front of us.
Want electricity to run your TV? Help build wind turbines in your community. Want to stay warm next winter? Just throw on an extra sweater. Want hot water for you next shower or bath? Now is the time to install a solar system. Need food? Plant a garden and raise chickens and pigs. Want to go on a trip? Certainly you have heard of a horse and carriage. Long commute to work? Allow extra time for that bike ride.
The sooner we get rid of those dastardly culprits, the sooner we can wean ourselves of carbon – it should be easier than giving up cigarettes.
Even though I voted to get Hansen’s ass fired I think having a fair trial to expose the fallacy of Hansen’s claim that we’re in dire danger from global warming would be a good thing.
After further review, I’ve changed my mind on what should be done…
He should be laid off.. along with every other employee at NASA.
The whole organization is broken beyond repair.
REPLY: I don’t know about that, the recent Mars landing went exceptionally well.
Hansen is a ClimaTautologist. All accepted evidence, all accepted observations and all accepted conclusions support his premise of AGW. Evidence, observations and conclusions which do not support his premise are non-operative.
ClimaTautology (n)
The practice of relating every extreme weather event to Climate Change, in order to create fear and/or secure funding.
Well, isn’t it a surprise that the poll results have changed so dramatically?
Actually not at all.
That’s because sceptics tend to be independently minded people who assess things on the range of knowledge available to them, then read the options and as you would expect vote in a broad number of ways. So initially there was a spread between the results.
Devotees, however, vote according to to their faith and thus all pile in on one particular option to support one of their high priests.
Global warming is nothing more than sinister social engineering predicated on junk science and flawed data. It is the Pet Rock of the new millenium. The aging hippies and limousine liberals bandwagon, except this time around instead of a VW Magic bus with peel and stick dasies, it’s a kerosene spewing corporate jet and 20,000 sq. ft. house for Al Gore and gas shortages, massive inflation and unemployment for the masses.
read: A.G.W. is make believe like elves, leprachauns and unicorns.
Anthony,
I am a skeptic, new to your blog. Thought it may be useful for you to be aware of the ability for an individual to vote repeatedly by continually refreshing the following website:
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/rss-msu-monthly-anom_042008.png&imgrefurl=http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/05/21/a-review-of-the-major-global-temperature-metrics-for-april-2008/&h=770&w=1437&sz=31&hl=en&start=27&um=1&tbnid=whcbG5HifJI1fM:&tbnh=80&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Djune%2B%2522global%2Btemperature%2522%26start%3D21%26ndsp%3D21%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN
REPLY: Yes, I see what you mean. You’ve discovered a weakness in the polldaddy.com software. It pretty much renders the poll useless when a hole like this is found.
Canada has a whack job as well, named Suzuki .
He wants AGW deniers jailed.
Fruit flies are his specialty.
When SDA gets involved, your poll has been officially FREEPED, and the result useless.
REPLY: So it’s ok when other non SDA sites get involved, but then they do and it’s now useless? Your bias is showing.
I like to start off a conversation with a natural variation denialist by stating;
Significant AGW is physically impossible! It relies on water vapor positive feedback that has been proven not to exist! They actually pretend that water acts like an explosive compound or nuclear bomb and undergoes a runaway chain reaction. In fact you can show that by adding one CO2 molecule and then removing it again the process still runs away until the oceans boil dry. In fact you can show that any heating of any magnitude from any source will cause the oceans to boil dry! How stupid is that? Because positive feedback does not exist then the effect of CO2 has been modeled at 5-20 times greater than it actually is.
If they get irrational then point out some more basic science such as “emotion clouds judgement” and “science is based on a comparison of theory and observation, why wont you believe the observations?” and “personal attacks are pointless in science, Einstein could have been a mass murderer but his theories would still be correct”
The key to arguing with people is establishing intellectual superiority. They normally use moral superiority to justify their belief but telling them they believe in a theory that is physically impossible will probably trump their belief. ask them if they know what beer’s law is. if they don’t then you can tell them them how silly they are and that maybe they should learn the fundamental equation that determines the absorption of energy by CO2.
finally if all else fails and they refuse to even contemplate the opposing side you get to point that ” science demands that both thesis and antithesis must be examined equally.” ie if they refuse to consider the opposing views then they are not conducting science.
cheers
Anthony,
When your poll becomes a matter of battling blogger types, you lose all connection to reality. I mean come on. This is just a game now. How many wingnuts can each side recruit to jack your survey?
REPLY: I suppose we are all wingnuts of a sort for choosing a position. Why not recruit a few of your own, I’m sure Ti-Guy could put in a few thousand votes.
On second thought, I’m not too worried about either you or SDA impacting it that much