Tilo Reber writes in comments:
Using the May data, I now get no temperature change for the last 11 years for HadCrut3, RSS, and UAH.
http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/11-year-temperature-anomoly.html
Click for a larger image
Even with the warm spike 1998 El Nino year included, the flatness of the 3 metrics used to track global temperature is telling especially when compared to the Keeling CO2 curve for the same 11 year period:
Here is the entire CO2 record:
It seems that at least for the most recent 11 years, increasing CO2 is not tracking with temperature. CO2 has not overwhelmed natural processes during this period.
[…] Related Content Charts are included at Watts Up With That? that show no global warming for last eleven years, despite a continued increase in CO2 levels. […]
Jerker,
I was playing around with this a while ago:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/isolate:60/mean:12/scale:0.2/plot/hadcrut3vgl/isolate:60/mean:12/from:1958
This is CO2 and temperature with a 5-year running mean *subtracted*, removing the long-term increase, and then averaged on a 12 month running mean to remove the annual CO2 signal. What’s left are 1- to 5- year cycles in both. The CO2 is then scaled down by 5 to make it fit.
This shows a strong 6-12 month *lag* of CO2 from temperature, which indicates relatively short-term temperature changes are driving CO2 concentration – but not by very much; unscaled the peaks here are only 1ppm. I think this is evidence of a (small) positive feedback between temperature and CO2.
… to give an indication of how small an effect this is, here is the 1-5 year CO2 signal (red) compared with the same thing but with the annual variation left intact (green). It’s about a tenth of the annual variation.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/isolate:60/mean:12/plot/esrl-co2/isolate:60
Oh, and here’s the same comparison as before but done with Fourier, filtering out 2-5 year signals:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/detrend:70/fourier/high-pass:10/low-pass:25/inverse-fourier/scale:0.2/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1958/fourier/high-pass:10/low-pass:25/inverse-fourier
[…] CO2-Temperature correlation theory has been shattered by 11 years of flat temperatures and 8 years of global cooling despite steady increases in CO2 […]
The anomalies are matched by date, right? If so that would make the satellite measurements at or just a bit under 0.2ºC under HadCRU surface temps. Which means that GW from 1979 to 1998 has been exaggerated by about twofold (or do I misinterpret?).
This also seems to match in pretty well with John V’s results?
Not only that, but according to GW theory, doesn’t one have to adjust lower troposphere temp. RATES (sic) of increase downward if one wants to bring them into alignment with surface temps?
[…] He had pretty graphs and stuff. Check it out here. […]
64.8 from the sun; another new low.
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[…] Is warming on 11 year hiatus? Well… I always think it’s best to ask yourself: Would I really think a particular method of looking at data is meaningful? Would I still believe this if the answers turned out “wrong” from my POV? Or, will I eventually find myself explaining my own method gives uncertainty bounds that are “too small”, when my gives “wrong” answers? […]
kim: please, you should know by now [from so many discussions on this] that the observed radio flux is not what the Sun puts out. The distance to the Sun varies 3.5% over the year causing the observed radio flux to vary by 7% [goes with the square of the distance], so the 64.8 is really 67.0 as it says in the ‘adjusted’ column. The observed flux is largest January 4th and smallest July 4th [or so] when we are farthest from the Sun. Back on Sept. 30, 2007, the flux was 65.1, so no new low.
Thanks, Leif, for telling me that twice. Maybe you won’t have to do it three times.
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[…] data from every source except GISS shows no warming trend for the past 11 years. Funny […]
[…] is at 350 ppm, the level reached in 1988. Currently, the concentration of CO2 sits at 385 ppm, with no increase in temperatures in the last 11 years. In fact, parts of America were reached record low temperatures and were receiving snow as late as […]
[…] For those of you who like to see the data, I submit this post How Not To Measure Temperature, Part 64 – Estimating biases and comparing to GISS Homogeneity Adjust… […]
[…] die. That would mean it’s about finding a linear fit of a short, noisy time series, right? That’s what started it. Further blogging revealed that ignoring the temperature data from GISS and NCDC, which […]
[…] 1. Warming On 11 Year Hiatus […]
Hmmm, smoothed flux at earth 9/2007- 67.1, 6/2008- 65.8. My, it really is a long minimum we’re having. Wonder what consequences might follow?