I’ve plotted the results of the RSS Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) global temperature anomaly data by RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA).
For April 2008 it has moved a tiny bit higher, with a value of .080°C for a change (∆T) of 0.001°C globally from March.
RSS
2008 1 -0.070
2008 2 -0.002
2008 3 0.079
2008 4 0.080
click image for a ZOOMED 1998 -2008 DATA PORTION of the 1979-2008 image
RAW RSS data is available here
Note that there does not appear to be any sustained upwards trend post 1998.
Here is the entire RSS MSU dataset plotted:
click for a larger image
I was wondering the other day, that the 1998 spike never seems to have been discussed in the plethora of blogs on climate.
To my old style simple mind, the spike seems an outlier of pluto or whatever it’s name is nowadays proportions. Also coincidentally it was about the time the world went AGW rabid.
I used to be a banker (and please dont tell anyof my neighbours) but if I saw a number like that in a series for forecast as a business venture was being started with the associated prior numbers my finance hackles would rise.
So I wonder if anyone has ever truly looked at that one remarkable kick start temperature for the Climate scare, has the data been audited for massage.
Because that is the kick off time for the hysteria.
The last six months have averaged +.046, the lowest six-monthly average since March 2000. The March 2000 six-monthly average included some figures from late 1999, so we can say that the current spell has been the coldest six month spell of the century! (relatively, that is: it is still positive after all)
The 10-year trend (since May 1998) is about +.04 degrees per decade. The trend from January 1998, which includes those high figures from Jan -April 1998, is -.04 degrees C per decade. Trends this small are essentially zip.
These figures could change. I noticed that some earlier RSS numbers have changed a little since last month.
Tropics now have 6 months in a row with a negative temperature anomaly, SH 4 months in a row.
Strange kind of global warming that is only in the NH, excluding the tropics.
John Van Krimpen: I believe you might actually question the source of the 1998 spike in temperature. I’m not sure, but you might. Just in case you do: The 1998 spike is the result of the well-documented and highly discussed 97/98 El Nino–the “El Nino of the Century”.
For those who haven’t seen this graph of global HADSST minus ERSST.v2: That 97/98 El Nino was so strong it broke the Hadley Centre’s SST calculator. Note the step change. Can’t miss it. It’s also reflected in their combined global temperature and other data. http://i28.tinypic.com/2ronf9w.jpg
No other source has that step. Sorry I went off topic, Anthony.
John Van Krimpen: The 1998 spike was due to the very strong El-Nina that occurred that year. And you’re right, the warming crowd went crazy that year!
Oops, mean’t to type El-Nino, not el-nina!
Can somebody else check and confirm?
RSS 12 month mean Oct 1987 to Sep 1988 = 0.17783
RSS 12 month mean May 2007 to Apr 2008 = 0.16917
That’s over 19 and a half years folks.
“was wondering the other day, that the 1998 spike never seems to have been discussed in the plethora of blogs on climate.
To my old style simple mind, the spike seems an outlier of pluto or whatever it’s name is nowadays proportions. Also coincidentally it was about the time the world went AGW rabid”
As this blog mentions climate cycles to explain away AGW you should check your El Niño cycles, 1997-1998 was the last major event. Considering we are in the middle of a La niña, there is s solar minimum and the north Pacific is on a cooling cycle then we would expect the global mean temperature to dip, not slowly rise since February. The Arctic ice sheets are again retreating rapidly (could this winters high ice sheet cover be the result of melt water from the summer/autumn reducing the salinity of the water and thus raising the freezing point?) and with Eurasia and the north east of North America having much higher temperatures than the norm at the moment then this year could still be a warm one. When the current cooling cycles end and the next El Niño hits then we will see the true effects of AGW.My mum always told me to walk away from hornets nests if they are disturbed so I’m off!!
P.S I applaude Mr Watts work on temperature sensors, excellent stuff.
Dear John Van Krimpen,
the warm year 1998 was due to the “El Nino of the century”, the strongest warming pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It explains virtually everything about the peak, is a well-known fact admitted by “both sides”, and it is certainly not being hidden by the skeptics. JunkScience likes to add the “El Nino of the century” label to the peak.
Best
Lubos
Anthony I hope you don’t mind me putting in a word for Philip Stott’s website. But again, yet another great piece by the Scot himself (with a tip for wine lovers)!
http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/Global_Warming_Politics/A_Hot_Topic_Blog/Entries/2008/5/2_It%E2%80%99s_All_Unravelling.html
I think GISS will show a record warm april 🙂 + 0.85 C
..plce your bets..
The last 2 months the tropic regoin is colder than any time since the late 80s. This La Nina is very strong.
The hysteria started long before then, early to mid 80s.
Not positive when compared to pre-Hansenized historic data.
John Van Krimpen:
The spike in 1998 was a giant El Nino where the Pacific Ocean dumped a tremendous amount of heat into the atmosphere. You can see spikes caused by other El Ninos in the temperature series, they are just not as large. The obvious ones are at months 48, 108, 144, and 198.
UAH has 0.015:
2008 4 0.015 0.170 -0.140 -0.531 30. 0.148 0.231 0.066 -0.139 365.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2
John M Reynolds
UAH also in, at 0.015:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:12/plot/uah/last:12
And Mauna Loa CO2, seemlingly returning to it’s normal pattern after a marked ‘knee’ last month:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/last:120
Braddles,
Won’t the RSS anomalies change slightly every month until a solid baseline has been established (i.e., 30 yrs worth of data)? In other words, you can expect the RSS numbers (of the past) to vary slightly since the baseline is still being developed.
John:
There was an extremely strong el nino in 1998, which caused sea surface temperatures to rise across a wide area of the Pacific. I don’t think the data were massaged more than other data – several sources (including direct measurements from things like ships and bouys as well as satellites) recorded warming of approximately the same magnitude.
The warmer temperatures associated with that event most certainly were held up as evidence that the globe was warming – “the hottest year on record”, and were largely responsible for kicking off the current hysteria. There was relatively little comment on the fact that this was the strongest El Nino on record (at least back to 1950 – handlily beating the 1972 event).
By contrast, there seems to be greater willingness to credit La Nina and the apparent change in the Pacific Decadal Occilation (which has been in its “warm phase”, and may be shifting into its “cool phase”) for the current cooling.
I think that I will continue to cut and stack fire wood. I agree with JVK that 98 was an outlier just as 1934ish was an outlier. And just think GISS is now revamping the older readings and the new history seems to be cooler. What a wonderful way to negate the current flat to cooling trend change. Please notice that I said trend change not trend. How can we see cooling if the past is made to appear cooler.
I am looking forward to looking at the numbers from UAB and HC and GISS. I wonder if there will be any divergence from metric to metric.
By the way the conservative group Grass fire is now on the anti AGW politically. They had an article this morning calling for the end to the hysteria about global warming using the RSS figures in their article. I think things are getting interesting and look forware to the rebuttals to the new measurements and John C’s open letter.
Bill
Bill Derryberry
John:
Certainly the spike in temperature associated with the 1998 El Nino was unusually strong relative to what has been seen since modern measurements of temperatures but Super El Ninos have been found throughout the historical record including 1596, 1630, 1789-1793, 1877-1878, 1899-1900 and 1972. All were associated with the worldwide weather disruption such as was seen in the 1998 El Nino. Also El Nino events are subject to modifcation by what else is occurring in the weather system. For example, some researchers have pointed out that the 1982 El Nino was modified by the powerful eruption of El Chichon. The point is that strong El Ninos have occurred throughout history and as several have correctly commented, what one makes of a natural and recurring event may depend upon belief rather than science. We are far away from understanding ENSO with only glimpses of relationships to solar activity and the PDO.
Paul Clark, regarding CO2 – should we not be using the seasonal corr numbers produced by ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt ?
Is the accuracy of the measuring instrument and technique really 1/1000 of a degree C? It doesn’t seem to make much sense to talk in such numbers unless it is. To do so seems to be playing under hockey rules.
And please don’t confuse resolution with accuracy. Is my electronics background showing?