In addition to the other observed factors such as a long sunspot cycle and minima and PDO flip, now we’ll add some aerosols to the mix. Volcanism has been quiet for the most part for a few years. This should have a cooling effect on the southern hemisphere.
I’ll point out that the effects on atmospheric albedo is yet unknown and depends on the strength of eruption, and quantity of ash and aerosols ejected into the stratosphere.
More than 1,500 people have fled their homes in southern Chile after the Chaiten volcano erupted, throwing a huge cloud of ash and lava into the sky.
The volcano, 800 miles south of the capital Santiago, had not erupted for more than 450 years and was considered dormant.
But it is now belching enormous clouds of thick ash that have drifted across a large area in both Chile and the Argentine province of Chubut, where an airport was forced to close.
Just six miles away, the town of Chaiten has a population of 7,000. Long used to the menacing form of the 3,000-foot mountain, it is now overshadowed by a towering column of ash.
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Chaiten is located at 42S. I wonder whether explosive Southern Hemisphere volcanoes warm the South Pole, a few years after the eruption, the same way Northern Hemisphere eruptions warm the north. I guess we’ll find out in 2-3 years.
BTW, Anthony, I finished that rather lengthy critique of the Mann et al “Weighted Dust Veil Index” and posted it here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/04/mann-et-al-weighted-dust-veil-index.html
The graphs posted fuzzy so I included links to them on TinyPic.
Regards
I believe it will be too far south to have a significant impact.
I’d still like to see someone explore the idea that volcanoes could be correlated with solar or crf.
If crf creates ions for cloud nucleation, maybe it also can ionize particles in magma, create precursers for aerosols, and cause changes in pressure differentials within volcaonoes. Changes in magnetic fields could also contribute to instablility.
Don’t most volcanoes give days, weeks, or even months of warning signs before a major eruption? This is the first I’ve heard of this one. Did I miss something?
I don’t wish to pour water and de-sensationalize this story, but to me this volcano looks to be peanuts. How big is it really? We’re certainly are not talkng
about anything of the magnitude of Tambora, or St Helens, which compared to Tambora was puny. It might effect temperature a few 100ths of a degree. Big deal!
Maybe the real news is that it coincides with other tectonic events that have just occurred in North America. Are the big plates a moving?
REPLY: My only point here is that that one is a surprise, and we haven’t seen much volcanic activity recently.
As I mentioned in the posting, the magnitude of effect is yet to be determined.
Major volcano eruptions which inject large volumes of aerosols into the stratosphere cause cooling, not warming. The most recent example was the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on 15 June 1991, which cooled the planet significantly for a few years.
The cooling is primarily caused by the reflection of sunlight from the aerosol cloud, which after a few weeks is largely composed of sulfur dioxide that eventually forms a layer of acidic aerosols. The mineral components of the eruption (“ash”) fall out much more quickly.
You can see the effect of the Pinatubo aerosol cloud on the optical depth of the atmopshere and the ozone layer in charts on my web site (below). Fortunately, I began making these and other sun and sky measurements and photographs on 4 Feb 1990 and captured the full impact of the Pinatubo event.
Forrest M. Mims III
http://www.forrestmims.org
http://www.sunandsky.org
Whatever the magnitude of the impact, its duration will only be a couple years at the most. A mere blip compared to the centuries of impact anthropogenic fossil fuel derived CO2 will have.
A good site for world hazard information is the RSOE Havaria information service. Shows everything from bird flu outbreaks to unusual snow storms.
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index.php?lang=eng
There is more to be found there on the Michimahuida eruption. Click on the appropriate volcano symbol and browse through the headings.
I’m glad this has come up because I need to ask a stupid question.
Were the eruptions in and around the solar minimums coincidental or is there a link with the sun?
Been reading your blog for months Anthony and finally am posting.
Pierre the eruption is massive really… http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/ChaitenSA123_G10.jpg
55k ft = 10mi vs St Helens = 12mi
And this just happened all estimates yet.. True damage will be known eventually unless they get their smoother on it 😉
Pierre I forgot to mention a few things in my other comment as well…
Consider that there is plenty of evidence a peanuts eruption can belt out tons of sulfur dioxide and create massive global cooling without the “shawk and awe”
It is all TBD at this point but consider Pinatubo was not very large really but lowered .5c add that onto the possible current trend anthony has been talking about here and we are -1.1c or more… that was before PDO flip and yada yada… We could look at some serious damage to the Southern Hemisphere..
There is tons of reason to be concerned.
Err how did that happen my first comment did not make it :/ Well anyway I will post it again.
Been reading your blog for months Anthony and finally am posting.
Pierre the eruption is massive really… http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/ChaitenSA123_G10.jpg
55k ft = 10mi vs St Helens = 12mi
And this just happened all estimates yet.. True damage will be known eventually unless they get their smoother on it 😉
Aaron, There is no infos I can find at the USGS weekly reports about this volcano of any unrest or anything… I think its possible this caught them by surprise. It shows they are human for one and that not all is known. Nothing bad about this really it just shows how inexact a science volcanism is.
I would hazard to guess this is the same story for the IPCC and so forth with forecasts of the “warming” they do not know and just guess. Although guessing is bad news when it comes to basing policy around..
It is likely possible that if this has a cooling effect equal to Pinatubo as said above that we are looking at terrible wheat crops in Australia.. This would exacerbate problems already seen.. Food shortages are likely and round the merry go round we go.. Just how will the Goracle respond?
It may be small, but expect the AGW cultists to explain away SH cooling with aerosols from it.
Now I’m getting a bit worried. Yeah it would be nice to get enough cooling to silence the warmers. But on the other hand I’m not anxious to see one of these in my back yard;
http://www.slightlywarped.com/crapfactory/amazingimages/icewave.htm
I have been under the impression that volcanic eruptions cool the climate
rather than warm it. The geoengineering types like Paul Crutzen have been
proposing the spreading of sulfur particulates at high altitudes to create a
technofix for their perceived AGW, modelled on the effects of the Pinatubo
blast.
True, but we’re sure to get a winner one of these days, right? Right.
Anthony,
I may have sounded more critical than what I actually meant to be in my last post, and wasn’t trying to be some wiseguy or something. Sorry if I came across that way.
What is interesting is that the volcano erupted without any warnings – at least nothing public.
I thought scientists were able to see these things coming with all their high-tech seisomographic gear.
Volcanic cooling depends on the quantity of SO2 injected into the stratosphere and proximity to the Equator. This eruption is likely to have little effect.
Note that in the short cooling in the early 90s was attributed solely to Mt Pinatubo, while a similarly large eruption occurred at Mt Unzon without any impact.
I believe the 450 yrs is wrong. Many articles are quoting 9000-10000 yrs dormant.
The Chaiten volcano has “probably been dormant for about 9,000 or 10,000 years but that’s not unusual,” said Charles Stern, a professor of volcanology at the University of Colorado who specializes in Andes volcanoes.
From volcanolive.com
Chile
42.833 S, 72.646 W
summit elevation 962 m
Caldera
Chaitén volcano is located in southern Chile, 10 km NE of the town of Chaitén on the Gulf of Corcovado. The volcano contains an obsidian lava dome in a 3.5 km wide caldera. The volcano is covered with snow, but does not contain a glacier. Two small lakes occupy the caldera floor on the west and north sides of the lava dome.
The volcano erupted on 2nd May 2008. Ash emissions reached a height of 20 km. More than 1500 people were evacuated from nearby villages and the town of Chaiten. This was the first historical eruption at the volcano. The previous dated eruption was over 9000 years ago.
Chaitén Volcano Eruptions
2008, 7420 BC ± 75
if this volcano’s eruption isn’t more then a VEI-4, then it’s probably not going to have any real effects on climate.
Oierre said: “I don’t wish to pour water and de-sensationalize this story, but to me this volcano looks to be peanuts.”
It doesn’t matter if it’s “peanuts” or not. You can bet a dollar to a donut the Pogies will claim it’s the reason for the unusual cooling!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
They thing about volcanoes is that the recovery afterwards is very quick (which probably indicates a low climate sensitivity) so the cooling effect of this volcano, if any, will not last very long.
Eruption columns from other well known eruptions.
Mt. St. Helens 1980- 25 km(82,000ft-15 1/2 miles, probably would have been higher if not for the collapse just seconds before eruption)
Mt. Pinatubo 1991- 34 km(111,000ft-21miles, 18-25km in the first eruptions)
Krakatau 1883- est. 80km(262,000ft- nearly 50miles)
Chaiten 2008- 20km(65600ft- 12 1/2 miles)
There have been plenty of eruptions around the world recently, but they are small ones with small eruption columns.
Info from volcanolive.com
TinyCO2:
Here’s a graph of NH DVI vs Scaled TSI from 1610 to present:
http://i28.tinypic.com/4uv1o2.jpg
I don’t see the connection. Unless you’re looking at the run of higher magnitude volcanoes during the Maunder Minimum.
So far, the eruption isn’t big enough to have much effect, nor has material been injected high enough into the atmosphere.
There was a mag 5 earthquake nearby today and the eruption may continue and intensify (or it may not). Large volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by weeks or months of moderate eruption. Google Krakatoa for an example.
BTW, Australian wheat production isn’t temperature limited and even significant cooling wouldn’t have much effect. Except to the extent the cooling affects precipitation and evaporation.
I think there’s a good chance of that. Right now, the alarmists are probably pretty desparate for ways to explain away the fact that nature doesn’t seem to be cooperating with them.