Having driven just over 800 miles around North Carolina, getting USHCN and GISS stations, like the one in Fayetteville NC yesterday, I’m pretty tired. But I’m at the middle of the trip, a trip made possible by the donations of many readers and supporters like you. Thank you, most sincerely for funding this trip. I’m getting lots of stations, but I’ve kept the centerpiece private until now.
Tomorrow, by an invitation sent almost two months ago, I am meeting with Dr. Thomas Karl and many of the principal scientists at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, NC. I will also be giving a presentation that will include many of the things presented here on this blog, and some that haven’t been.
Here is the meeting agenda prepared by NCDC: watts-visit-ncdcbb PDF file.
I’ll be relaying a couple of communications and have some questions. Feel free to pose some here. The visit has been labeled as an “exchange of ideas and information”, which I’m all for as long as a hockey game doesn’t break out.
More station surveys in western NC and into Tennessee for the weekend. I hope to survey 20-25 on this trip.
Sign up here if you’d like to survey some in your state: www.surfacestations.org
Or if you can’t do surveys but would like to help there’s always the donation button at right to fund the next trip.
When I invited speakers to a conference at a government facility, I organized the transportation, per diem and accommodations – you might ask these folks why they are being cheap about footing your expenses. Of course, that’s along with the professional questions!
Having read several of his papers, I always felt Dr Karl was one of the climate scientists genuinely trying to get at the truth behind the fog of temperature data issues. I am confident he will give you a warm welcome.
I second Mosh, please beg them to provide ftp access to the CRN data.
Waffle House waitress to northerner: “Want grits with that?”
Northerner: “Well OK, I’ll try one or two”
Cracker Barrel is for wussies.
Waffle House rules.
I’d be curious as to why there appear to be different adjustments on a seasonal basis (check AZ Childs for monthly data plot).
I’d also note that ND Mott was moved within the last three weeks or so with no update at the NOAA MMS database as of 23APR2008. Extra effort (and a pleasant overnight stay in town) was required to locate this one.
REPLY: Thanks Eric for the extra effort. I can tell you the lag is related to NWS reporting and data entry at NCDC. I’ll ask about the usual turnaround time.
Another great piece by Philip Stott:
http://web.mac.com/sinfonia1/Global_Warming_Politics/A_Hot_Topic_Blog/Entries/2008/4/22_Time_To_Be_Angry.html
An excerpt:
“Ipsos-Mori polling data, published last week by the Financial Times, shows that, over the 12 months to January 2008, the proportion of those in Britain declaring “the environment” to be their biggest concern fell from almost 20 per cent to just 8 per cent. In the US battle for the Presidency, a recent major poll put interest in ‘global warming’ as a key issue at zero!”
Is anyone doing the stations analysis in other parts of the world?
I am in england
I am sure others would do something similar
Any suggestions about what you want?
Pictures and grading according to your system?
Denis
I assume we have the same set of problems with the weather station boxes as you do.
sorry just been reading backlog of your comments to kevinuk last summer 🙂
will check it out now we have several stations near me in norwich
In addition to the seasonal adjustments, it appears that disproportionate weight is given to February temperature data in calculating an annual “mean”. What scientific basis is there for this, given that they are apparently capable of doing ~5 other adjustments?
I would like to know if the comparisons between Waffle House and Cracker Barrell are raw data or have they been smoothed and adjusted? I would think there would be a +3.95 bias for Waffle House from real Southerners with a corresponding -1.75 bias from everyone else who has never eaten grits. There is also an added -5.9 bias againt Waffle House for those who have never used an outhouse. By the way, does your itinerary take you anywhere close to Big Al’s GHG producing monstrosity?
I think AGW skeptics will have done a great service to the survival of the human species by our constant work to demonstrate that human generated CO2 is not involved in a major way in climate change. I do believe that future generations will thank us for it. That is not to say that we probably agree with most “environmentalists” that our earth needs to be looked after and should not be forever be subjected to unmitigated development, overpopulation and over use of land etc (see R Pielke etc). This will become evident if the world does actually freeze over in the next 20-50 years.
You’re in my part of the world! I live in Kings Mountain and I’ll be in Asheville this afternoon. Wish we could meet up, I’d like to meet you.
REPLY: Well if you have mbile email, drop me a line to info [at] surfacestations.org
This is off topic… It appears there is new evidence that the little ice age was global not local:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/04/21/little-ice-age-in-southern-south-america/#more-320
It appears that the little ice age was global not local:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/04/21/little-ice-age-in-southern-south-america/#more-320
Best of luck. Maybe I’m crazy but I think something good could come out of this.
If you are going to pass near Atlanta I would be only too happy to buy you dinner.
Off topic. Looks like LIA was global not local. See World climate report dot com.
oh and code for doing average temp for the us, since we cant make giss
compile, that way we can test for the effect of site violations
REPLY: Gee why not ask for something BIG? 😉
“I’m constantly amazed at the apparent fact no one seems to question these “adjustments.” Anytime you allow ANYONE to fudge a number regardless how sincere they are, they are still fudged numbers and not woth a tinkers damn as far as I’m concerned.”
Scientists are personally invested in their data for any number of reasons, e.g., say the public health lab providing data for a number of interdepartmental purposes. A technician, or their manager, adjusts data for ‘good reasons’, to ‘make it more accurate’, e.g., in the case where redundant tests or multiple methods are used. In every case, at some level, a fraud is being perpetrated; perhaps harmless, but with the intent to deceive someone, even if never ‘seen’ in fact.
This historical warming/cooling thing has taken curious twists and turns. Many years ago, before publishing became so polarized, the warmers and coolers got about equal press. Then, sat some point, and I think it started with the cooling media blitz, it became one sided. One of those happenings you look back for, but do not notice while it is happening. In any event, the appearance is that at one of the AAAS or other meetings, the warmers and coolers went off in the corner and flipped a coin, and all got on the same campaign bandwagon. For funding, of course. The warmers won the coin toss.
John Goetz, I hope you share with us the results of your search. I would love to know if it supports my shaky memory of the events of the time. And, I believe you are correct in believing that the media, even back then, drove public perception more than the scientific journals. And why wouldn’t it? What percentage of the citizenry are scientists? Scientific literacy drops every year in this country, and the results are obvious, aren’t they?
interesting article in our newspaper today;
Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html
If the data are ever to be made useable, the station histories have to be cleaned up. Bite the bullet and go back to the reporting sheets, if they still exist, and re-digitize (locations and temps) starting from the present and working backwards. Also go interview the observers for recollections about micro-siting issues. Try to find out how much bias has crept in during the last couple of decades.
Outstanding! Way to go Anthony!
A bit off topic but I found it interesting that today we have an “old cycle” sunspot ( 992 ) at a pretty hight latitude. At least as high of latitude as the recent cycle 24 spot. It is almost like cycle 23 is starting over again!
For Steve Mosher
When I worked in the surveying and geodetic business, FILNET was an off the shelf product for doing least squares adjustments to large networks. Maybe the same product? I don’t remember the vendor name.
Sounds like a great trip so far, Anthony. Hope it just gets better for you.
If you go through Kansas City on your way home, stop in at Arthur Bryant’s for some of The Best BBQ on Earth.