Current SOHO: The Sun is blank again
The outlook for solar activity continues to be pushed further back as cycle 23 spots continue, such as the group of 3 seen last week, but no cycle 24 spots are being seen. NASA’s convened panel of scientists obviously missed their mark of consensus in predicting cycle 24 would start in March 2008. There is growing concern over the delay in the start of cycle 24. Now a new prediction portends more delay. If we go to May or later before the solar min is reached, cycle 23 will be the longest cycle since the late 1800s. Now it is looking like cycle 24 may not get started until late 2008 or early 2009.
Here is a new forecast from Jan Janssens SOLAEMON the SOLar Activity & Earth MONitor web page:
In this statistical research, transits to cycles 12, 13 and 14 were considered, as well as transits to cycles 21, 22 and 23. The current transition towards SC24 was compared with foregoing evolutions.
The start of SC24 is not to be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might even take place only in the first half of 2009. This conclusion matches perfectly the results one can make from evolution of the number of spotless days. Nonetheless, SC23 would be one of the longest in over 100 years, possibly even in over 160 years.
See the entire article and methods used to determine these statements here:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html
h/t Bob B
Oh, and a minor note on the “rice shortage”. Little mentioned was the fact that Bayer Crop Sciences had an escape of a GMO rice that contaminated a nearby foundation seed stock for two of the major varieties planted in the Texas to Arkansas belt. This wasn’t found until too late. Many countries forbade the import of US rice (fearing, rightly, that it could contaminate their stocks…). Most of the U.S. farmers had to choose to roll the dice on more bad rice seeds of unfamiliar varieties or just plant something else for a year or two… lots of them chose to go the proven corn, soy, whatever route.
OK, take one of the largest rice exporters out of the market and the rice importers have shortages. Take many farmers out of the US market and the US production drops. We have plenty of rice, though, due to the lack of exports… California rice was not impacted, being a short grain or mid grain types. Only the long grain from “back east” was a problem. The oriental markets were hit by panic buying from oriental restaurants…
Doesn’t have much to do with global warming (other than to point out that the US production hit was not weather related…).
As a weather side bar: Skiing resorts in South America are reporting great snow this winter (i.e. right now…)!
Oh, and the solar cycle was predicted some time ago; the predicted sunspot minima is already named for the predictor, so it can not be named the AlGore Minima… BUT we can start taking about the “AlGore Cold Period”!
😉
actually next solar cycle is predicted to be small. and crops prices were largely dropping last 10 years, with a short up trends. the heating oil and gas were falling like a knife since some people here recommended to pile them up. so they are the agents of oil magnats.
if you read physics more carefully, you’d understand that excess heat will easily irradiate back into space, so Algorean science is a branch of social sciences. the volcanoes make a bit of difference. while actual heat radiation from sun is very constant. it is only the X-rays and visual spots that make a difference into that solar minimum. i think we need to point to a good textbook, as many people have no idea about how things are in reality as opposed to man-made cliches !