Current SOHO: The Sun is blank again
The outlook for solar activity continues to be pushed further back as cycle 23 spots continue, such as the group of 3 seen last week, but no cycle 24 spots are being seen. NASA’s convened panel of scientists obviously missed their mark of consensus in predicting cycle 24 would start in March 2008. There is growing concern over the delay in the start of cycle 24. Now a new prediction portends more delay. If we go to May or later before the solar min is reached, cycle 23 will be the longest cycle since the late 1800s. Now it is looking like cycle 24 may not get started until late 2008 or early 2009.
Here is a new forecast from Jan Janssens SOLAEMON the SOLar Activity & Earth MONitor web page:
In this statistical research, transits to cycles 12, 13 and 14 were considered, as well as transits to cycles 21, 22 and 23. The current transition towards SC24 was compared with foregoing evolutions.
The start of SC24 is not to be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might even take place only in the first half of 2009. This conclusion matches perfectly the results one can make from evolution of the number of spotless days. Nonetheless, SC23 would be one of the longest in over 100 years, possibly even in over 160 years.
See the entire article and methods used to determine these statements here:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html
h/t Bob B
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The Solar Cycle Progression charts at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/ have been updated. No surprises that I see. There is an uptick in the sunspot count, but that must be from the three groups that came by recently.
Questions and Speculation: Why would a Daulton Minimum be the expected outcome? It seems to me that volcanic eruptions affected the depth of the 3 solar minima of the Little Ice Age–it was all a perfect storm, so to speak.
other question: Could this minimum be like the Oort Minimum? Was there an appreciable effect on climate then?
last question: is there really a rice shortage? I eat rice for dinner almost every night…(no, i’m not Asian. I just like rice.)
@Michael Ronayne (09:42:05) :
I just love to speculate…your questions are all on our minds. And I for one do hope it approaches that point.
1. Will the Gore Minimum be comparable to the Dalton or Maunder Minimum?
Trends and past cycles indicate it’s a real possibility, but no one knows.
2. How long will the mainstream media keep the lid on?
I imagine there are a number in the media who are not that entrenched,
and are concerned about not wanting to look really stupid. So if the cooling continues, look for significant defections by the end of the year. Yes, some media are still sane enough to read the writing on the wall.
3. How will the AGW spin machine respond?
They’re desparate, i.e., $300 million campaign, which is tagged for the next 3 years. But just imagine if temps dive 0.5°C in the next year or so. Will Gore and the zealot media really want to invest in a campaign claiming the absolute contrary to reality? This will only make them look even more insane, like someone, only wearing a Speedo, running outside in a snowstorm claiming it’s warm enough for a swim in the lake, urging everyone else to follow. It certainly would be entertaining.
If it gets that far, my guess is that they’ll concede it’s getting cooler for the time being, but only temporarilly, and that the next warm phase will be a real burner because of all the manmade CO2. And this argument will be valid if the cooling does not reach the levels of the 1960s, i.e. meaning a longterm upward trend.
The Little Ice Age lasted in the region of 400 years, so while volcanic eruptions made some years or groups of years colder they can not have be the cause of the LIA.
There is certainly a shortage of rice on the international market, although international trade in rice is small compared to overall consumption. The big unknown is China. They claim to have a 50 million ton stockpile, which is several times the annual international trade.
I don’t think we know much about the climate at the time of the Oort Minimum.
Note: This comment was flagged as spam, sorry for the delay.
World Rice Supplies And The Run On Rice
I have commented on the price of rice in other posts on this BLOG and the fact that the mainstream media is going to great lengths not to report the reasons why there has been over a 200% increase in the price of rice. Obviously the fact the Government of the United States is subsidizing the conversion corn into energy inefficient ethanol at tax payer expense and the price of oil is creating a near perfect storm, but the winter weather conditions in Asia got the ball rolling.
The Weather Anomaly Which Must Not Be Named
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/21/snow-and-storms-at-easter-in-europe-and-usa/#comment-9212
Here are news reports from the Chinese and Vietnamese Communist Party controlled news survives which are the only reliable sources of information on the impact of the winter of 2007-2008 on food supplies. Obviously they have not yet morphed their colors from red to green, how reactionary of them.
China Winter 2007-2008
China’s War on Snow Havoc
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/index.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.cn/english/08snow/tn.htm This is a very long list of cold weather related events in China.
Northern Vietnam faces longest cold spell
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/15/content_7609612.htm
China island province faces severe agricultural losses for cold weather
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-02/29/content_7689597.htm
Vietnam Winter 2007-2008
Hai Duong farmers fight cold to save rice
http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/business/140208/business_ha.htm
PM calls for drastic measures to cope with cold weather
http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/news/160208/domestic_p.htm
Ministry steps in to help farmers
http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/business/190208/business_m.htm
Assistance for cold spell-hit people in Lao Cai
http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/life/190208/life_a.htm
Rice export to be kept in moderation
http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/business/210208/business_ri.htm
Mekong farmers reap top rice crop
http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/business/250208/business_me.htm
This is the real reason why world food prices, including rice, are going through the roof. If Jan Janssens is correct the winter of 2007-2008 may be looked upon as the good old days in the future.
Mike
“NASA’s convened panel of scientists obviously missed their mark of consensus in predicting cycle 24 would start in March 2008”
According to Algorean science, consensus is always correct and this is just a case the Sun not being aware of it. Perhaps the IPCC should fine the Sun a couple of million Euros for it’s blatant disrespect of the scientists comprising the panel.
There has been some debate as whether solar cycle 24 would have high or low numbers of sunspots. NASA issued 2 predictions (high and low).
From the Nasa press release on their high and low predictions for solar cycle 24 (dated April 2007),
What would cause the big predictors to think small.
If solar minimum drags out beyond March, 2008.
What would cause the small predictors to think big.
If either the magnetic field at the sun’s poles increases in strength or geomagnetic activity increases before March, 2008.
As it now April, it seems the low prediction wins. It remains to be seen how low.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
“What would cause the big predictors to think small.
If solar minimum drags out beyond March, 2008.
What would cause the small predictors to think big.
If either the magnetic field at the sun’s poles increases in strength or geomagnetic activity increases before March, 2008.”
Hmmmm, it looks like a small cycle. Good thing the sun has absolutely no effect on climate.
The longer minimum goes on, the lower #24 will be. Right now, looks like we can bank on <75 maximum.
[…] something new on that solar angle: Solar cycle minimum at the earliest in second half of 2008? « Watts Up With That? And yet another tidbit that I’m predicting will find precious little play in the mainstream media. […]
Since a consensus predicted that the cycle would start in March and the sun has not cooperated, there can be only one explanation — the sun has been bought by big oil.
By the way, I ‘ve been buying stock of natural gas related companies for the past few months. For what its worth, I think it is not too late to get in.
“Algorean science” – I love it. 🙂
Sometimes the humour here is just so delicious and spot on.
Bit like chocolate drops on my wife’s mouth-watering brownies….
[…] Solar cycle minimum at the earliest in second half of 2008? […]
I agree. Buy heating oil/gas futures. Invest in coal processing plants. Buy a mature wood lot now because if you heat with wood, it will also get very expensive. There will be a run on wood/pellet stoves so get your’s ordered now. Buy any kind of grain crop future. Buy any kind of fruit crop future. The prices will likely soar.
The temperature decreases.
Watch the frozen sean, as my pulse go down.
The king has lost its crown.
Cold sun, will never shine.
Freezing clouds, ready to fall.
Killing us all.
Cool, I don’t quite understand though. But I do love astronomy. Tell me more!
Jeff B.
The axiom is “Occams Razor”.
As you point out very applicable in this instance.
Jeez,
Regarding the Guardian’s 8 billion figure, they’ve revised the figure down to 3 billion (let’s hope that the revised figure was derived more scientifically than the former), but still failed to come to grips with the real issues. Or deliberately skirted them.
The Guardian doesn’t mention the normal, long-term supply fluctuation; just the _predicted_ one of a 3.5% reduction. Nor how much of the rice produced goes to waste before reaching the table.
The 50% increase in price is akin to that of oil. Largely due to speculation and profiteering. As a result, tiny negative changes in supply produce enormous, positive price responses. -3.5% => +50%
OTOH; it takes a large positive increase in availability for a small reduction in price. If not also an increase in price to hedge “instability of supply”.
Methinks that the machine is broken.
A very small number of the three billion would be at risk if their portions of rice were reduced by 3.5%. It’s the speculation that results in their portions being 33% smaller. I guess one could call that making a killing on the commodities market.
Ok Mr. Sadlov, you win:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/24/news/companies/rice_issues/?postversion=2008042414
I’m not entirely on the side of algorean science on the issue of global warming (and certainly not on that of the magical power of consensus!), but it bears pointing out that whatever may happen to climate because of the solar cycle has nothing to do with the hypothesis that anthropogenic emissions have a radiation forcing impact. (I dislike the misnomer “greenhouse effect” because, as someone has pointed out, the glass in a greenhouse doesn’t do anything like the same thing.) Senifeld and Pandis has a good discussion of the mechanism behind this forcing.
To D. Dodd I will only point out that gas warmed by absorption of longwave radiation does *not* lose energy upon the ensuing expansion, although its temperatures does decrease, since it gains potential energy along with height. On your hypothesis, even increasing solar energy wouldn’t be able to warm the atmosphere, since that would equally result in expansion! Clearly, increasing incoming radiation, whatever the source, tends to warm the system. “Greenhouse” gasses have that effect, because they absorb outgoing longwave radiation from the Earth, which would otherwise escape to space, and re-emit it in a random direction. Sometimes that random direction is directly outward, in which case there is no effect, but usually it is either downward or obliquely into the atmosphere, in which case the net temperature of the surface and the atmosphere is slightly increased. The magnitude and secondary effects of this process are not yet well known, nor is the potentially mitigating effect of changes in the solar cycle, but the basic physics of changing atmospheric temperature as a result of changing atmospheric composition are relatively simple. Now, leftist politicians have latched on to this bit of science to sell scaremongering scenarios of molten ice caps and the like, without any proof. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater! As usual, there’s a kernel of truth behind the propaganda, and it may even be one that warrants action. Please let me know, or check out Seinfeld & Pandis, if you have any questions. (It’s good to question the conventional wisdom.)
I should add that a parcel of air expanding with height does lose some energy since it does work on its surroundings. However, the work is done on surrounding parcels, so the atmosphere as a whole doesn’t lose energy, which is the relevant point. The overall volume of the atmosphere is constrained by gravity, so that energy re-radiated from some point in the atmosphere must contribute a net increase in temperature.
Some great comments on this thread along with some up and coming bon mots
such as Algorean Science and the Gore Minimum.
I have bookmarked these words and I sense some of them will end up in the worldwide lexicon of AGW realists.
A question by Michael Ronayne
“I will keep the Solar Cycle 23-24 animation updated. I do suspect that we will be seeing revised predictions very shortly. ”
See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7376301.stm
Next decade “may see no warming” A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.
No entries since June… March passed, July passed and now it’s August and no blog entries since June. Hasn’t the Gore minimum continued and deepened? Too busy trading corn, oats and hog bladders? Reality is much more exciting than ideology, doctrine and paradigm. So, let me tell you about my 1/2 acre of fingerling potatoes in Philadelphia PA. They turned off 12 days early. In fact they turned off very quickly and by 7/25/08 I realized something beyond the usual factors was amiss, that is when I started to look for answers. I found the answer in the NOAA Solar graphs, which are astonishing…right!? So should we expect a repeat of the winter of 1977, the romance of Victorian winter or something a bit colder.
OK, ok, I’ll add something… I’m in California. Silicon valley area, near the coast. Most summers I get tomatoes OK, but it takes some time until July heat gets them going. This year? My “Siberia” tomatoes are doing fine (set fruit as low as 45 degrees or so!) but my pink Brandywine have given me nothing yet. Today I found one small green fruit on it. The Vine is about 5 feet tall and more in diameter, and one stinking green fruit the size of a kiwi. Lots of flowers, no set due to cool temps. Typical August temps are 90’s with the occasional 100 or so. Today was 85 … don’t remember the last 100… I’m getting a few fruit from my Arkansas Travelers, but in general my Tomatoes are just not happy. It’s too cold for them.
At the same time, I have runner beans (that like cool weather – the scarlet type that they grow in England) growing great. They usually sulk in mid summer…
I’ve been shorting oil / energy over the summer (no AC demand!) but expect to put on a big long position in natural gas (XTO, UNG, CHK) as soon as the price crosses the 25 day moving average to the upside. Probably about end of August early September? I’ll be watching grains too, but no position yet.
The first guy to notice commodity and economic cycles moving with sun spot cycles (at least, and write about it!) was William Stanley Jevons about 1878. He is an important economist who created the idea of “marginal utility” (a fundamental concept in economics) and built an early calculating engine.
He is also known for his work on the coal shortage in England which resulted in Jevon’s Paradox: Increasing efficiency does NOT reduce coal consumption! The increased efficiency for any ONE use results in more uses and more users and total consumption goes UP not down! So much for CAFE standards and efficiency improvements reducing oil demand…
BTW, improved efficiency is still a very good thing. You get more stuff done for more people for a given amount of resource. It just does not reduce total demand for coal (or one presumes, oil…). The real solution is more supply or less demand (from higher prices). The law of supply and demand.
I do wish folks would look at what is already known before running off the cliff of conclusion. Oh Well. Don’t complain about them, make money off of them. Mild summers will mean lower fuel demand and good buying opportunities while severe winters will mean stronger run ups in fuels. It is likely that food harvests will also be down. Short food processors and go long basic commodities (as their graphs give the timing…).