Current SOHO: The Sun is blank again
The outlook for solar activity continues to be pushed further back as cycle 23 spots continue, such as the group of 3 seen last week, but no cycle 24 spots are being seen. NASA’s convened panel of scientists obviously missed their mark of consensus in predicting cycle 24 would start in March 2008. There is growing concern over the delay in the start of cycle 24. Now a new prediction portends more delay. If we go to May or later before the solar min is reached, cycle 23 will be the longest cycle since the late 1800s. Now it is looking like cycle 24 may not get started until late 2008 or early 2009.
Here is a new forecast from Jan Janssens SOLAEMON the SOLar Activity & Earth MONitor web page:
In this statistical research, transits to cycles 12, 13 and 14 were considered, as well as transits to cycles 21, 22 and 23. The current transition towards SC24 was compared with foregoing evolutions.
The start of SC24 is not to be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might even take place only in the first half of 2009. This conclusion matches perfectly the results one can make from evolution of the number of spotless days. Nonetheless, SC23 would be one of the longest in over 100 years, possibly even in over 160 years.
See the entire article and methods used to determine these statements here:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelcome.html
h/t Bob B
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FYI—Leif Svalgaard has also updated his research page:
http://www.leif.org/research/Most%20Recent%20IMF,%20SW,%20and%20Solar%20Data.pdf
“…longest in over 100 years, possibly even in over 160 years.”
What should this bode? Does anyone wish to speculate?
While Jan Janssens is not an astrophysicists, given the track record of the wise men in Boulder Colorado I am not sure anyone can predict what is going to happen next. If Jan Janssens is correct then there are only three questions which need to be answered.
1. Will the Gore Minimum be comparable to the Dalton or Maunder Minimum?
2. How long will the mainstream media keep the lid on?
3. How will the AGW spin machine respond?
I will keep the Solar Cycle 23-24 animation updated. I do suspect that we will be seeing revised predictions very shortly.
Mike
As a layman, it’s hard to understand how the AGW proponents can not see the obvious connection between the Sun and our climate. I can’t remember who said it, but there is an axiom whereby one does not look for more complex explanations where simple ones will suffice. How can there be any doubt that the Sun dwarfs all other inputs to Earth’s temperature? On any given day the Sun’s flatulence or lack thereof will probably erase years of man’s boldest efforts. This is the obvious truth that the AGW folks hope will go away. Thankfully the Sun is showing us the truth.
In the past, there were attempts to use solar activity as a leading indicator of wheat futures. Now, one might consider the same for rice and corn futures. Of course, correlation is not causation. But it is of interest nonetheless. I witnessed a rice run at a local store, over the weekend, right here in NoCal, a preeminent rice growing area. I cannot imagine being somewhere where domestic supplies cannot meet demand (even here we import as a matter of preference, since we only grow short and medium grain in Cali).
Why are the plots of ‘Active Region Count’ versus time set up as always-positive? For the purposes of determining crossover, you’re trying to monitor when the average orientation switches. If you just decide “Ok, the orientation for cycle 23 will be considered ‘positive’, the other orientation is negative”, it would be more plausible to just eyeball the transition.
IOW: Currently there’s an always-positive sawtooth-like pattern (yes, uneven & curvy). If you let the orientation of an individual sunspot multiply it’s y-coordinate by (±1), then the scatter pattern and trends in the current time period alone tells you something about when we might ‘cross zero’ and move into the next cycle. You end up with an -alternating- sawtooth-like pattern.
Individual points (June 2006, Jan 2008, etc.) don’t do the job – they were outweighed by sunspots on the other side of the ‘zero’. And if you just plot the running average, you have a measure of how far from crossover you are.
Is it reasonable to expect, all other things being equal, that the global temperature will continue to drop for at least the next year and maybe this is the preface to a longer colder period?
So, the further along this gets drawn out, does this point to the gore minimum actually happening and that 2010 – 2040 may actually be a serious cold spell upward of an average of 2 degrees cooler than now . . . or is this even an indicator of anything at all?
Jeff B. – were you thinking of William of Ockham, a Franciscan friar who gave us “Occam’s razor.”?
I thought the Dalton and Maunder minimums were also puncutated with several major volcanic eruptions. Without that, will we only get a cooling period similar to the 1960-70’s?
John M Reynolds
Indeed Aggie, but according to the principle, a simpler but less accurate theory should not be preferred over a more complex but more accurate one.
I would also be interested to hear speculations about what the Solar Minimum means with respect to our climate.
Robinson: In all cases, accuracy. This should never be about whose ox is “Gored.”
I’m just grateful to see a civil debate.
This is slightly off-subject, but since a less active Sun ultimately affects the Earth’s hydrologic cycle, making it snow, hopefully, in Tennessee, can someone point me to an actual PHYSICS TEXT in which “greenhouse effect” is defined? This term is used as though it is a natural law, yet in my personal schooling (ca. mid-1960s), the Earth’s climate and weather patterns were adequately described in terms of the hydrologic or water cycle, and not once was the term greenhouse effect used. Since even a glass greenhouse does not act like a “greenhouse” (it only traps air warmed by conduction from objects within the greenhouse, not secondary radiation), it seems unlikely that the chaotic, dynamic atmosphere could act in such manner. Any gas (e.g. CO2) warmed near the surface will simply expand (natural gas laws) and disperse to higher levels, thereby releasing its energy. The end result is warming near the ground, evaporating more water into the water cycle, creating cooler clouds, etc. In fact, all of the climate models or GCMs seem to violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics by having the cooler troposphere warm the earth’s surface! The entire AGW hypothesis requires one to “suspend disbelief” and stand physical Laws on their heads! I know that definition must be out there, but please don’t pont me at Wikipedia — my Conservative computer doesn’t travel well there! My personal belief is that the greenhouse effect is an urban myth, but I could be wrong!
Wikipedia is warped on climate because its editor for climate matters, until very recently, was William Conneley(sp?) and ardent warmer and climate modeler. The wreckage of his ideology still strews the beaches.
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Steve Sadlov can you elaborate on this rice run you witnessed? I also live in NoCal, near ATT Park, and I know there are no food supply shortages here, although a particular commodity may sometimes be out of stock, but rice?
I was able to find this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/06/food.foodanddrink
Gotta love Guardian reporting: “But with rice relied on by some eight billion people”
I guess they got the scoop on that one a couple of decades into the future.
REPLY: It was probably Rice-a-Roni, I hear there was almost total crop failure for that this year. 😉
Well, Anthony, I searched the NoCal press for “rice” but all I got was this.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=16&entry_id=25494
REPLY: OK I deserved that. 😀
D. Dodd,
You might try “Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,” Seinfeld & Pandis. Concise on greenhouse effect, and expansive in other sections on the related physics.
D. Dodd:
Go to the Junkscience Blog written by Steve Milloy. He has a link to a pretty well written description of the “greenhouse effect”, both as expected by the AGW group, and as viewed by thermo-physicists.
Jeez – it was at a Marina Market, a “chinese” market. You probably are not going to witness rice runs in Safeway, Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, Raley’s or Cala. There are certainly cultural factors involved. For, shall we say, those who do not eat rice as their main carbs, there is probably not (yet) the sense of foreboding that would drive one to hoard. Interestingly, there are also reports of hoarding presently from Hong Kong.
I figured it was a Chinese market and the run was probably price driven.
It just still seemed improbable. Sorry for doubting you.
jmrSudbury:
“I thought the Dalton and Maunder minimums were also punctuated with several major volcanic eruptions. Without that, will we only get a cooling period similar to the 1960-70’s?”
The Year without a Summer was triggered by the explosion of Mt Tambora which was 5X the size of Krakatau and 25X-100X the size of St. Helens. From Brian Fagan’s “The Little Ice Age”:
“At least three major volcanic eruptions occurred between 1812 and 1817: Soufriere on Saint Vincent in the Carribbean erupted in 1812, Mayon in the Phillipines in 1814, and Tambora a year later. This extraordinary volcanic activity produced dense volcanic dust veils. The Krakatau event provides scientists with a baseline for measuring the extent of volcanic dust trails. If 1883 is given an index of 1,000, 1811 to 1818 is roughly 4,400. Another set of powerful eruptions between 1835 and 1841 produced an index of 4,200 and further colder weather.”
“The years 1805 to 1820 were for many Europeans the coldest of the Little Ice Age. White Christmases were commonplace after 1812. The novelist Charles Dickens, born in that year, grew up during the coldest decade England has seen since the 1690s….”
Fagan assigns 1790-1820 to the Dalton Minimum, Wikipedia says 1790-1830.
The sort of solar cycles people are talking about (sunspot numbers in the 40-50 range) are much more like the Dalton Minimum than the 1960-1977 timeframe with numbers around 130. Then there are the people talking about perhaps we’ll be revisiting the Maunder Minimum, but we really don’t want to go there.
According to the predictions from the Solar Inertial Motion hypothesis, we can expect to be entering a minimum like the Dalton Minimum.
I’m ok with rice shortages. as long as I have moon cakes I’m happy.
I read the Janssens article looking at models. This is the first time I have seen such an in-depth examination of models. Loved it. But it was very complex. I am still wondering if simple measures such as flare numbers and magnitude predict/precede short term fluctuations in temps. The Earth’s magnetic field measurement may be compromised by other factors. CO2 and ocean temps may also be compromised by interactive mechanisms. Could it be as simple as sun “eruptions”?
Always the philosopher.