I’m writing this after doing an exhaustive search to see what sort of solar activity has occurred lately, and I find there is little to report. With the exception of the briefly increased solar wind from a coronal hole, there is almost no significant solar activity.
The sun has gone quiet. Really quiet.
It is normal for our sun to have quiet periods between solar cycles, but we’ve seen months and months of next to nothing, and the start of Solar cycle 24 seems to have materialized (as first reported here) then abruptly disappeared. The reverse polarity sunspot that signaled the start of cycle 24 on January 4th, dissolved within two days after that.
Of course we’ve known that the sunspot cycle has gone low, which is also to be expected for this period of the cycle. Note that NOAA still has two undecided scenarios for cycle 24 Lower that normal, or higher than normal, as indicated on the graph below:
But the real news is just how quiet the suns magnetic field has been in the past couple of years. From the data provided by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) you can see just how little magnetic field activity there has been. I’ve graphed it below:
click for a larger image
What is most interesting about the Geomagnetic Average Planetary Index graph above is what happened around October 2005. Notice the sharp drop in the magnetic index and the continuance at low levels.
This looks much like a “step function” that I see on GISS surface temperature graphs when a station has been relocated to a cooler measurement environment. In the case of the sun, it appears this indicates that something abruptly “switched off” in the inner workings of the solar dynamo. Note that in the prior months, the magnetic index was ramping up a bit with more activity, then it simply dropped and stayed mostly flat.
We saw a single reversed polarity high latitude sunspot on January 4th, 2008, which would signal the start of a new cycle 24, which was originally predicted to have started last March and expected to peak in 2012. So far the sun doesn’t seem to have restarted its normal upwards climb.
If you have ever studied how the magnetic dynamo of the sun is so incredibly full of entropy, yet has cycles, you’ll understand how it can change states. The sun’s magnetic field is a like a series of twisted and looped rubber bands, mostly because the sun is a fluid gas, which rotates at different rates between the poles and the equator. Since the suns magnetic field is pulled along with the gas, all these twists, bumps, and burps occur in the process as the magnetic field lines get twisted like taffy. You can see more about it in the Babcock model.
I’ve alway’s likened a sunspot to what happens with a rubber band on a toy balsa wood plane. You keep twisting the propeller beyond the normal tightness to get that extra second of thrust and you see the rubber band start to pop out knots. Those knots are like sunspots bursting out of twisted magnetic field lines.
The Babcock model says that the differential rotation of the Sun winds up the magnetic fields of it’s layers during a solar cycle. The magnetic fields will then eventually tangle up to such a degree that they will eventually cause a magnetic break down and the fields will have to struggle to reorganize themselves by bursting up from the surface layers of the Sun. This will cause magnetic North-South pair boundaries (spots) in the photosphere trapping gaseous material that will cool slightly. Thus, when we see sunspots, we are seeing these areas of magnetic field breakdown.
Sunspots are cross connected eruptions of the magnetic field lines, shown in red above. Sometimes they break, spewing tremendous amounts of gas and particles into space. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CME’s) are some examples of this process. Sometimes they snap back like rubber bands. The number of sunspots at solar max is a direct indicator of the activity level of the solar dynamo.
Given the current quietness of the sun and it’s magnetic field, combined with the late start to cycle 24 with even possibly a false start, it appears that the sun has slowed it’s internal dynamo to a similar level such as was seen during the Dalton Minimum. One of the things about the Dalton Minimum was that it started with a skipped solar cycle, which also coincided with a very long solar cycle 4 from 1784-1799. The longer our current cycle 23 lasts before we see a true ramp up of cycle 24, the greater chance it seems then that cycle 24 will be a low one.
No wonder there is so much talk recently about global cooling. I certainly hope that’s wrong, because a Dalton type solar minimum would be very bad for our world economy and agriculture. NASA GISS published a release back in 2003 that agrees with the commonly accepted idea that long period trends in solar activity do affect our climate by changing the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI).
Some say it is no coincidence that 2008 has seen a drop in global temperature as indicated by several respected temperature indexes compared to 2007, and that our sun is also quiet and still not kick starting its internal magentic dynamo.
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[…] read the full article here. […]
It’s one thing to discuss the relative low sunspot activity and have a general opinion that time will be the ultimate decider, but all you global warming deniers are ignorant…I’ve really had it with all of you. Here is a quote from NASA…”The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the “El Niño of the century”. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle. ”
Hello…that was last year…what global cooling?
There will always be places that will experience record low temperatures and winter annomalies but that is expected if you have any knowledge of true climate change…. “2008 was the warmest March on record over land surfaces of the world and the second warmest overall worldwide”…that was this year. People who don’t understand glabal warming and climate change need to shut up.We will never solve the problems we face if the uninformed believe the ignorant…and they do!
This is Global Warming not OMG it snowed in Paris or last week was the coldest days I have expeinced where I live…If you think like that hang out all over the US where they are currently experiencing record heat and that is in many places but that is not the whole story…again…Global Warming.
With all that said, the sun could definately cause global cooling because it is our source of heat but until there is more evidence and more time we should live with the truth of today and the history of the last 100 or so years which have been well documented. Global warming is not a belief if is based on the facts and is most likely caused by humans because as far as we know nature doesn’t work in the range of hundereds of years (normally) but thousands and millions of years.
I do find the lack of sunspot activity interesting and will continue to follow the news because I am Interested in the effects it has on current climate change…maybe it will cool things down…which would be good because here in Houston it has been in the mid 90’s since the end of April and will probably continue till October…I would welcome some true global cooling.
Just wondering Kevin if Houston is so hot because of all the hot air you’ve been blowing. The Earth is cooling in my part of the world and there’s no doubt about that. I dont need someone to tell me what’s happening when i can just look out the window.
I fully believe that we are affecting the sun. The increased use of solar panels being the cause of the problem. The enviromentalists are the ones that are causing the problem by inducing a negative feedback loop due to the conversion of the suns energy thus insuring less for everyone around. Way to go greenies. Ole’ Sol is not happy. We must have sacrifice, al gore, step up to the plate, you are causing this global catastrophe. What an inconvient boob.
Not only solar panels! The RF output, generated by the multi-millions cellphone, radar, radio and TV broadcasts, is heating up out atmosphere. And probably the solar corona! This phenomonem might be Partially counteracted by the shadows of earth orbiting objects.
My first visit. Very interesting, very informative. Thanks to all.
Remember:
Globalwarming *Gulibility^2 = $$$
where $$$ = Al Gore’s bank account.
jim
Shoot, I live in the Southern US, and I’ve been turning off my AC overnight. I don’t turn it back on until about noon. I just open the windows and let the cool air in. Granted, it was a bit stuffy the past 3 or 4 days, but it’s raining again now. It’s very cool outside. I turned off the AC again. The environmentalists should all shout with glee.
It’s freaking July! It’s supposed to be mid to upper 90’s, at least compared to summers past. We’ve got watermelons being sold off the highway, that means summer is in full swing. I don’t need a scientist or NASA or some suck-ass politician to tell me the weather. It’s noticeably cooler. Everyone is talking about it here in my small town. We’re all cracking jokes about “global warming.” Nobody believes in it anymore. We’re mostly country folk. We believe what we see and feel, not what people a thousand miles away say, especially when those people are getting billions of dollars to do “research.”
“Global Warming” is a cult created by the wealthy. Ever notice how the lower members of this cult are filled with bile? How they quote other people, other statistics, but offer nothing original? And the people they quote are government shills or people on the government payroll (is that redundant?) They have nothing of their own to offer, so they just bully and shout and try to belittle anyone sheepish enough to listen.
“Global Warming” is a hoax to bring about a global tax. Mark my words, if the cooling period continues the tax will become about something else, possibly even “Global Icing” or “Global Pollution.” I’m just a hick in a small town, but I read and research. There is absolutely a push for global government and a system of global taxation. Do a little research on your own, look and see who’s pushing for it. The extrememly wealthy and powerful. I don’t pretend some massive secret cabal that involves aliens or other such nonsense. It’s about the same thing as always – money and power and control. Same garbage that’s been going on since the dawn.
Oh, and for the record, I am 100% interested in humans cleaning up their filth. We have really made a mess on this planet. I will not argue that. I get sick to my stomach at the litter and the waste, the poisoning and the rampant destruction. I do not doubt that industrial emissions effect our environment. I just don’t buy into the “Global Warming” hysteria. I don’t trust shallow evil men like Al Gore (I am NOT a Republican!) I’m much more concerned with the current genetic corruption of our food supplies, cross species experimentation, and war. And the current (massive) cooling trend and lack of sunspots is quite alarming.
Thank you
[…] Where have all the sunspots gone?“, Anthony Watts, posted at Watts Up With That, 13 February 2008 […]
“We understand nothing of the works of God unless we take it as a principle
that He wishes to blind some and to enlighten others.[7]” Pascal (from wikipedia)
Ouch!
“It is not certain that everything is uncertain.” Pascal (from wikipedia)
I think I like this guy.
C02 is all about the oceans and its ability to absorb it… Currently it’s at its max… The sun dose cool down and currently we are trapping heat with the C02…. So it dose not look good no mater how you peal your banana…
Pump more C02 you kill the ocean and the earth friezes stop CO2 with 0 sunspots earth cools down and we freeze… but what’s the best path….
Ok…putting all political ideology and scientific doctrine aside. My 1/2 acre of fingerling potatoes in Philadelphia Pa, turned off 16 days early. None of the usual factors explained the sudden completion of my potato crop. Suddenly, from July 25th on, it seemed we were 3-5 weeks later in the season. Looking for answers, I went to NOAA and learned all about solar cycles and the fact that we are in a deep extended minimum. I am not into commodities futures or speculating gas or oil, I just want to know what to expect for the 2009 growing season, (can’t eat gas or oil). All the talk about a Dalton minimum and ’18&frozen to death’ might be fun for all you anti-global warming geeks, ( I am one of those reformed Christian land stewardship type organic farmers who does’t give a rip about global warming), but all this talk is making me nervous. Tell me, do I plant tomatoes or carrots and parsnips next in 2009.
It’s highly unlikely that sun spots or lack thereof are to blame for your shorter than average growing season. I would be looking to other factors such as rainfall, mean temperatures and average daily sunlight. These metrics will be driven by normal localised variations in climate. If potatoes stop growing all around the world then I would start to worry but as I type there doesn’t seem to be any evidence of that.
FWIW, here in Sydney Australia we are experiencing a cool and quite extended winter and snow has been falling to low levels in the SE. This weather has been driven by strong high pressure systems in the southern ocean. We would normally experience alternating cycles of cool southerly fronts and warm temperate northerlies, but this winter there’s been virtually no northerly winds and that’s allowed cool southern ocean air to move further north than is usually the case. I also note that the southern vortex has been weaker than usual this winter and that’s been one of the drivers of variations in pressure systems and their movements. Because the polar cyclones have not been whizzing around the Antarctic perimeter it’s allowed longer periods of time for the Antarctic anticyclones to link up with the mid latitude HP cells and draw cold polar air from continental Antarctica across the southern ocean amd into mid latitude regions of Australia. It will be interesting to see if this pattern repeats itself next winter and if something similar is seen in the northern hemisphere’s winter later this year. There’s no doubt that the polar vortex is an important driver of mid latitude climate but this is one area that’s not yet fully understood.
Sunspot cycle 24 is different from the last 7 cycles. An excellent article which can be found at http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html based on SIDC data shows why. The evidence since May when the paper was published supports their analysis. So the Noaa guy is wrong that this cycle is unusual but there is no evidence that this is a new maunder minimum… we would need data up to 2011 at least to make a judgement on this.
We concur with Jeff Corbin’s observation on a diminished growing season. We are located about 150 miles WSW of his location and we too noticed a rapid decline in our tomato plant growth and an early maturity of the fruits although their size remained small. It appeared to us that the growing season jumped from early August to mid September (based upon our experience here of past growing seasons). Up until that point (early August) we’ve had moderate temps for summer (daytime 25-35c), more than average rainfall, and average sunlight for that growing period. – Very odd and we are wondering if this has been observed in other locales distant from our location (eastern WV).
If so, is diminished sunspot activity an additional possible factor?
[…] I know it is very easy to dismiss this and believe in man made warming. Where have all the sunspots gone? Watts Up With That? http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/pastandfuture.pdf this one is from a Aussie. Seriously if you […]
Are we in for global cooling because of lack of sunspots? Here’s my theory — The sky is falling! Are you all prophets? Just like those who think that global warming will destroy this earth, you are also spouting the same ideas except in reverse.
The sun will probably get its spots back but when it decides to do so, not based on predictions from whomever.
What bothers me most about those who do not believe in global warming is that there is this attitude that it is okay to continue to destroy the earth, it’s okay to pollute it, run amok with its resources. Whether you believe in global warming or not, our responsibility on this earth is to live in harmony with the earth, not to use or abuse it.
[…] the election season heats up to make up for lack of sunspot activity, try to remind yourself what the ancient Roman reform candidate once said: “Ask not what your […]
I’m just what you call an amateur astronomer. I was looking forward to working with some new equipment to photograph the expected sunspot activity for this new cycle and just happen to have captured the only activity thus far. Out of curiosity this morning I decided to see what being discussed about the lack of activity and run upon this site and the opening discussion.
I’m glad that the world is still full of people and intellect who are in tune with their environment regardless of what you believe. Given our political reality, this is refreshing. Important science has basically been ignored over the last 8 years and that in itself is a tragedy. With all the technological improvements we’ve seen in the last 50 years, our discussions in the 21st century are dominated by dinosaur fat. 73’s wd5ewx
The Minimum solar Cycle 24 has arrived ,and the Sun seems Quiet down,and the Sunspots are fading away,but we often still see the Aurora Borealis sometime in a while,but it sparks by the Corona Holes that blows by the Gusty Solar winds,but they will not show on the Quiet sundisk,I think that why the reason why is the sun has the conveyor Belt is slowing it down,which is means that we are into Solar Minimum Cycle 24,and also the weather climate we may get much colder winter months,and In my Understandings are the Glacial Ice age caused by the Mauna solar minimum…not like in 2001 we had great big solar activity Lots of sunspots and the Summer month were so hot and muggy,and winter months were too warm not much Ice we had few years after the following years after 2001,2002,2003,2004,2005.until2006,the winter months gotten colder, but last winter we had good colder winter months due to the solar Minimum Cycle 24 has arriving,but this year’s winter will be bitterly colder down to -40 to -60 in the northern hemisphere…..,so if anyone want to chat here is my msn addy is nwood_3.0l@hotmail.com
another thing is the Gas Emission may be the havoc,but it is true too many people burning fosil coal oil,but the Global warming do not come from the Gas Emission,it something as to do the Solar Minimum Solar Cycle 24 is play the role,in the north the Ice Cap is seems refreezing again,but not before long do not last again ,when there is another solar Maximum is coming not until maybe in 2013..or later few decades
so the Global cooling is coming that is means that we are getting colder winter months…..
Solar activity does not necessarily contradict the existence of human-caused global warming. I suspect we are entering a solar minimum but, because of the momentum of global warming, we won’t begin to experience the first really bad winters for another two decades or so.
I had planned to buy a solar telescope but have put off that purchase until (or if) the first substantial sunspots appear. Paying $500 to $1,500 for an Ha scope is not worth it if I only see prominences but no sunspots.
your “global worming” also got put off with that telescope.
I attended a NASA conference today, which announced that the solar winds (solar output) are at an all time record low level. While NASA would not allow themselves to be pinned down to saying that the long solar cycle 23 will lead to global cooling (NASA predicted a record sized cycle 24) they hinted that this would be the case. Our sun is a variable sun, and in the past longer cycles have led to cooling (but we are not sure about his one, we are learning every day)…..
Solar cycle 23 is now 12.4 years long and is likely to be 13 years or longer. There were no sunspots (well maybe one) in August, the first time this has been the case since 1913. Solar cycle 24 is barely starting, Solar winds are at the record low. All indicators the sun radiation is greatly reduced. Solar cycle 23 will be a very long one, cycle 24 when it gets started is likely to be very weak.
The solar cycle which predated the Dalton Minimum, a period of great cooling between 1796 and 1830 was 13.6 years long so we dont have too much further to go to reach that point.
I went to Capitol Hill last week and met with 4 Congressmen and/or their staff. All they could talk about was puting in a Carbon cap-and-trade system next year ‘which will raise hundreds of billions of dollars every year”. We cant afford this, especially when based on false information, that CO2 causes the warming we experienced up to 1998.
I started a climate change website, wwwisthereglobalcooling.com I guess as part of my frustration