'Intellectual yet idiotic': the sad case of Stephan Lewandowsky

Guest opinion by Drieu Godefridi

In a new paper just published with two other authors “The ‘Alice in Wonderland’ mechanics of the rejection of (climate) science: simulating coherence by conspiracism“, Stephan Lewandowsky states — for the umpteenth time — that climate skeptics are deniers, that

“there is strong evidence that the rejection of climate science is primarily driven by ideological factors”

(page 2), even psychological factors since their identity (page 3), or worldview, is threatened by climate science, that

“there is growing evidence for an involvement of conspiracist ideation in the rejection of climate science”

(page 4) and that the whole body of skeptical pseudo-science (pp. 4, 15, 16) is incoherent, thus implying a form of “Mad Hatter” nonsense, since he claims that coherence is at the very essence of science.

Mr. Lewandowsky commits errors in reasoning that should have him immediately stripped of his university affiliation.

First of all, the idea that the critics of a dominant paradigm should be coherent among themselves, is not only false or ludicrous, but comical. At every step of the formidable development of science in the history of the West, we find a myriad of parallel and concomitant challenges to the dominant paradigm. That is, before one of them finally takes over. Were all the critiques of Newton, Kepler, Einstein or Heisenberg coherent between themselves? See the present state of physics, with several theories in the quest of the last particle, theories that are perfectly coherent as such, but mutually incoherent.

Lewandowsky is conscious of this slight monstrosity of his (only) argument since he writes (in the end): “Our analysis was performed at the aggregate level; that is, we considered the incoherence of collective argumentation among a “community” of like-minded individuals as if it were a single intellectual entity. It is possible, therefore, that individuals within this community would only hold one or the other of two incoherent views, and that each person considered in isolation would not be incoherent. In that case, one could argue that there is merely a heterogeneity of views in the “community” of denialists, which might in turn be interpreted as being an indication of “healthy debate” or “scientific diversity” rather than incoherence.” (page 16), only to reject it: ” the argumentative incoherence that we analyzed in this article also arises within arguments offered by the same individual.” Lewandowsky then gives a few samples of such individual incoherences, then concludes:

“This sample is far from exhaustive but is sufficient to establish the existence of argumentative incoherence at the level of the individual in addition to the denial movement in the aggregate.”

Having thus conceded the falsity of his argument, Lewandowsky tries to save it by explaining that somehow the incoherence of some scientists reverberates on the whole body of skeptical climate science. May we remind the 15 years old who may read this text that there is not one scientist who has ever been perfectly coherent, and that it takes some magical thinking to sustain that such an incoherence is contagious, not only between individuals, but between individuals and theories.

The main sample of incoherent thinking (at the “aggregate level”) given by Lewandowsky is this: ” Another long-standing contrarian claim has been that global warming “stopped” in 1998. Although this claim is based on a questionable interpretation of statistical data, it has been a focal point of media debate for the last decade or more and it has ultimately found entry into the scientific literature under the label of a “pause” or “hiatus” in warming. Either the temperature record is sufficiently accurate to examine its evolution, including the possibility that warming may have “paused”, or the record is so unreliable that no determination about global temperatures can be made.” (page 4). Did it occur to our expert in coherence that you can show the incoherence of a theory without accepting this theory?

Having thus showed that the argument of the hiatus since 1998 — which is indeed one of the favorite themes of scientists skeptical of the dominant paradigm in climate science — belongs to the realm of ideological, conspiracist and psychiatric pseudo-science, Lewandowsky explains that “the theoretical coherence of consensual climate science does not prevent robust debate.” (page 16). Of this robust, sane debate — opposite to the his alleged conspiracist pseudo-science of the denialists with a problem of identity — he gives an example: the hiatus. “One striking example <of robust debate inside the scientific community> involves the recent controversy about the so-called “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming in the early 2000’s. Some scientists have argued against the existence or special status of this “pause” (here the psychologist Lewandowsky quotes himself) whereas others have taken a contrary position. We therefore argue that science achieves its coherence through a constant self-correction process” (page 16).

In a very recently published paper Nassim Nicholas Taleb defines the “intellectual yet idiot” as a bureaucrat paid by the taxpayer who “pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited.” However, in the case of Lewandowsky, an acknowledged expert in the psychological sciences, one can appreciate that this pathologizing of diverse experts in climate science who do not conform to his consensus ideation, appears to be intentional and is a career theme for him. If this speculation of intent is true, such activity is clearly in breach of medical and psychological codes of ethics, beginning with the acknowledged fundamental of “Do no harm.”

Enormous harm is done to science and to dissenting scientists by Lewandowsky’s portrayal of them as being pathologically unstable for voicing dissent – especially as well-known scientific codes of conduct like that of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine state that “Science has progressed through a uniquely productive marriage of human creativity and hard-nosed skepticism….”

Having fallen down his own rabbit hole into a magical, fantasy world of scientific conformity, the appreciation of the crucial value of critical thinking and skeptical review to science is something that Lewandowsky continues to deny.

National Academies:

https://goo.gl/xc5jL9

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Analitik
September 27, 2016 6:37 pm

John Cook is not just any old “other author”. He fully deserves a detailed critique of his own.
Thank god he’s leaving Australia for the George Mason University

Analitik
Reply to  Analitik
September 27, 2016 6:39 pm

comment image

Odin2
Reply to  Analitik
September 27, 2016 8:02 pm

Thanks a lot. 🙂

Santa Baby
Reply to  Analitik
September 27, 2016 9:11 pm

Lysenko look a likes ?

Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 3:45 am

He looks eerily at home in that get-up

Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 4:26 am

Thanks for dumping your trash in our back yard.

Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 4:33 am

Is that pic meant to convince blacks and Jews not to working with them or did someone just snap it while Cookie was waiting around for the anti-defamation meeting?

Ben of Houston
Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 5:27 am

I don’t know. However, it was not created by his opponents, but by his supposed supporters, which makes it all the more confusing.
However, can we please stop posting these. Anyone who doesn’t know the history would reasonably think that we are just demonizing the opposition.

urederra
Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 12:06 pm

KInda reminds me of this:
http://oi65.tinypic.com/2ezpy5c.jpg
Some Like It Hot.
“Nobody is perfect”
Such a travesty.

AnnefromAustralia
Reply to  Analitik
September 27, 2016 9:35 pm

I cheered and punched the air when I heard this – now we have got rid of both of them. Hopefully a few more will follow and restore some measure of sanity to the country.

RockyRoad
Reply to  AnnefromAustralia
September 28, 2016 2:16 am

Oh sure, foist them on us in the US. /sarc

TA
Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 3:59 am

Is John Cook bringing that uniform with him? That will go over well.

Bill Marsh
Editor
Reply to  Analitik
September 28, 2016 3:59 am

Please no. Take him back. His arrival at GMU will cause my degree (MS Software Systems Engineering) from GMU to be denigrated (is that a ‘conspiracist ideation’ in the aggregate or individually).
Dr Lewandowsky practices an intellectual exercise in which you propose what is ultimately nonsense, but, the proposal is so complex, so convoluted, and is built one’buzzword’ upon another, one invalid logical leap upon another, that most quail at the idea of unraveling it, something like unraveling a mental Gordian Knot. That and it says something they want to hear about those who disagree with them, so they (the Journals) accept it without really examining it.
I’ve seen many examples of this in the software development field. One of my son’s friends won a HS Science Fair with an incoherent, obfuscated, ridiculously complex ‘C’ code program (not all that difficult to do with ‘C’ btw) that didn’t actually work, it was just so convoluted and complex that the judges were not willing to expend the energy to really examine it and just accepted it as valid even though it wouldn’t compile.

Ben of Houston
Reply to  Bill Marsh
September 28, 2016 5:59 am

I think the comparison to obfuscated code is an abt one. I can’t follow Lewandowsky’s reasoning, despite trying. It’s like poorly written detective fiction. The ones where you can’t tell if the confusion is due to clues being too subtle or the author being an idiot. He’s trying to create a logic trap that might work in debate, but against an opponent who isn’t speaking

hunter
Reply to  Bill Marsh
September 28, 2016 9:39 am

Ben, you offer a multiple choice question regarding Lew’s writing style.
I believe the answer is “all of the above”.

rw
Reply to  Bill Marsh
October 1, 2016 11:32 am

Is that how they’re teaching programming these days – your program doesn’t actually have to work as long as there’s evidence that you put in some real effort? So these idiots can even get around the basic strictures of computer science … (I’m impressed.)

September 27, 2016 6:49 pm

“the denial movement”
I refuse to be a member of any movement that would have me in their aggregate.

RBom
September 27, 2016 6:54 pm

Lewdowsky old boy should change his name to Oxymoron then pay the 500 quid for a Trade Mark, then pony up the 35 quid for a Copyright.
At least he could then become a legit Patent-Copyright Troll and file a suite against the Oxford English Dictionary.
Ha ha

September 27, 2016 7:01 pm

Lewandowsky is IYI minus the prefacing IY.
To be sure, Lew understands where his bread is buttered, as Drieu Godefridi writes, “and is a career theme for him. “

gnomish
September 27, 2016 7:06 pm

the lew and cook are the phd version of the Westborough Baptist Church.

AndyG55
Reply to  gnomish
September 27, 2016 7:13 pm

Lew and cook are the equivalent of Laurel and Hardy. !
https://postimg.org/image/xm6lp4a9b/

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  AndyG55
September 27, 2016 8:47 pm

That’s an insult to Laurel and Hardy, comic geniuses.

Reply to  AndyG55
September 27, 2016 9:55 pm

AndyG, Laurel and Hardy were very accomplished comedians, Lew is not even that.

AndyG55
Reply to  gnomish
September 27, 2016 7:13 pm

try againcomment image

Chris Hanley
Reply to  AndyG55
September 27, 2016 11:53 pm
September 27, 2016 7:07 pm

Wherever did you acquire such a flattering photo of the “Intellectual?”

Mayor of Venus
Reply to  Shelly
September 27, 2016 10:11 pm

They also went to Oxford.

Greg
Reply to  Shelly
September 27, 2016 11:14 pm

Yes, that image shows him as the sliimeball he is , very appropriate.
“there is strong evidence that the rejection of climate science is primarily driven by ideological factors”
What he omits to report is : “there is strong evidence that belief in climate science is primarily driven by ideological factors”
That makes his views ‘incoherent” with the facts.

Greg
Reply to  Greg
September 27, 2016 11:15 pm

“there is strong evidence that work of Lewandowsky and Cook is primarily driven by ideological factors”

Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2016 2:38 am

Rather:

“there is strong evidence that [the] belief in [what they believe to be the only and righteous verion of] climate science is primarily [in its entirety] driven by ideological factors”

In fact, there is no indication whatsoever that there is any other factor driving both the erecting of such hyptheses, and the .. ehrm .. ‘efforts’ to demonstrate their vailidity

September 27, 2016 7:10 pm

Lewandowsky hardly needs refuting. Psychology is not and never has been a science. It has no foundations, is based on no laws. It borrowed the scholarly language, but for a psychologist to decide what is or isn’t science is a paradox.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Ronald P Ginzler
September 27, 2016 7:58 pm

Psychology is a science. It can be used to predict behavior of humans. For example, I can predict that Lewandowsky will make even more bizarre statements in his forthcoming papers.

Santa Baby
Reply to  Ronald P Ginzler
September 27, 2016 9:04 pm

“”In science, refuting an accepted belief is celebrated as an advance in knowledge; in religion it is condemned as heresy”. (Bob Parks, Physics, U of Maryland). No prizes for guessing how global warming skepticism is normally responded to.”
You would fond the same tendency in USSR. And Herbert Marcuse critical theory and political based logic. Free thinking is a sin?

Santa Baby
Reply to  Santa Baby
September 27, 2016 9:14 pm

Lysenko wannabe ?

gnomish
Reply to  Ronald P Ginzler
September 27, 2016 9:49 pm

maybe you never heard of skinner, but yes, psychology is most definitely a science.
and every single time you use the terms ‘propaganda’, ‘influence’, ‘brainwashing’, etc. you affirm that it is not just a science but an applied science.
furthermore- you are reacting to their stimuli JUST AS THEY INTENDED.
the only person you might be fooling about that is your self which is not solely owned by you any more when they make you dance like their puppet.

TA
Reply to  gnomish
September 28, 2016 4:05 am

“and every single time you use the terms ‘propaganda’, ‘influence’, ‘brainwashing’, etc. you affirm that it is not just a science but an applied science.”
Yes. And it is applied very well by the Leftwing Media.

Reply to  gnomish
September 28, 2016 6:49 am

Skinner was a behaviorist who believed free will was an illusion, something science cannot prove (free will probably isn’t even science—it’s more philosophy and religion). While he did try, the best he could possibly claim was that stimulus/response was science. However, when stimulus/response is applied to large, chaotic systems, it’s impossible to identify all the contributing factors and produce accurate predictions. The theory can only be proven with very limited success. Humans are far too complex for such simplicity—or at least they used to be. Now, I do sometimes wonder…..
Psychology is a mixture of science and philosophy. Only actual experiments with double-blind studies come close to a scientific standard and even then depend on statistical analysis to determine the validity of the conclusion. To be actual science, they must be duplicated over and over. I would guess that the majority of psychology experiments are not duplicated, based on what I’ve read recently about duplication of scientific papers. What Lew does is marketing research and propaganda development. Most of the time the only goal is to “win” the argument and sell the most product. Truth has no part whatsoever in the selling—witness commercials toaya. Lew’s only goal is to sell the idea of global warming. Nothing he does indicates he cares in the least about the veracity of the science. He is counting on group think and people not wanting to be outside the group.
Lew also lacks insight into psychology itself. Confirmation bias exists in global warming studies and scientists, conspiracy ideation exists in global warming (fossil fuel conspiracy theory runs rampant in global warming), and Lew is completely blind to the reality that political and social pressures apply to BOTH sides. Indications are he has little to no understanding of the field he supposedly excels in.

Reply to  gnomish
September 28, 2016 9:55 am

There are very accomplished, very well off, people out there in society (some admired, some not) that never studied psychology (some never even got out of high school) that utilize their understanding of human nature to get whatever they want. In getting what they want they even make those they get it from feel good about the whole thing.
Those tens of thousands of accomplished hucksters must be the genius savants of the psychology universe, right?
Kinda like that one impoverished kid from India that never had the chance to go school or study math and has the innate understanding of the subject that no one else in the world has.

gnomish
Reply to  gnomish
September 28, 2016 11:35 am

“Skinner was a behaviorist who believed free will was an illusion”
quite true.
but know that the formation of associations is the root of cognition and it applies universally to any creature with a brain. that is the foundation of psychology.
skinner put the numbers to it- for example, the optimal delay for the formation of an association is 400mS.
all animals can be trained this way and no other way.
you learned the alphabet this way; you learned what to eat, which bathroom to use and everything else you ever learned this same way. this is the automatic thinking done by all creatures with a brain.
if you are human and have acquired the habit of abstract symbolism we call ‘language’, then you are also capable of performing logic to validate your associations.
skinner’s foray into philosophy was a symptom of what i call ‘guru syndrome’.
a fine example of this is mr decaprio’s rantings. it’s training he’s received from ‘yes men’ he’s become surrounded with.
what you may not realize is that a game of chess is not all on the board. there are a million moves yu can make outside the room that can affect the outcome as well.
lew and cook are not playing the game the way you imagine it’s played.
they are not interested in climate science qua science. they are very well focused on suppression of resistance to a narrative. they are phd trolls and very accomplished. frankly, i admire their talent the same way i can see the beauty of a shark.
they tie a can to a skeptic tail and watch him chase it in circles. it renders the enemy ineffective.
that’s the nature of the game and you either get that or you get got.

rw
Reply to  Ronald P Ginzler
October 1, 2016 11:36 am

??? Do you really think that neither behavior nor cognitive processes have regularities? Well, from light adaptation to moral development, they do.

Dr Dave
September 27, 2016 7:12 pm

This guy is a psychologist, right? You would think he would have a rudimentary ability to recognize psycological defects… like obsession, which is a trait he exemplifies.
Time to give it up Lew…

gnomish
Reply to  Dr Dave
September 27, 2016 10:41 pm

oh, he recognizes obsesson all right…
http://imgur.com/159IHtI

September 27, 2016 7:15 pm

Do you get the impression Lewandowsky admires Trofim Lysenko and his political/scientific model?

Reply to  Tom Halla
September 27, 2016 7:20 pm

Lew, like Trofim did, depends entirely on the regime in power for their prestige and position. No science involved.

graphicconception
Reply to  Tom Halla
September 28, 2016 3:58 am

Now would be a good time to remind people that “Stephan Lewandowsky” is an anagram of “What Lysenko spawned”.

Robber
September 27, 2016 7:33 pm

Lew gets paid to deliver his illogical arguments? How does his analysis increase human wellbeing?

Reply to  Robber
September 27, 2016 9:41 pm

It (Lewandowski’s pseudo-science psych analysis) comports with the current regime’s climate agenda which supports a broader socialists agenda). Nothing more.
Lewandowski, a govt grant-paid shill. Disgusting.
Lewandowski’s govt provided remuneration is a disgusting example of human waste (to meet an agenda) that could be better spent on real science, like cancer research or high energy particle physics.
Joel O’Bryan, PhD

September 27, 2016 7:35 pm

Still trying to play psychological games. ” the whole body of skeptical pseudo-science ” perhaps he should save his finely crafted words for AGW. After reading that, don’t you feel bad for being a skeptic?
It’s fairly condescending without much substance, more of a school yard mentality ” nuh ugh, my science is better than your science ” . No wonder he went into psychology, couldn’t do real science. How did such people get into such positions that they should be given credit of being talked about ? Nepotism?
That’s his claim to fame, writing a pseudo-intellectual piece about something he has no clue.

Ed
September 27, 2016 7:39 pm

It occurs to me you don’t have to be all that intelligent to be an intellectual.

Reply to  Ed
September 27, 2016 9:43 pm

bingo!!!!

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
September 27, 2016 9:44 pm

Barack Obama is the prime example. The self-described “smartest guy in the room.”

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
September 28, 2016 10:25 am

Joel,
By intentionally surrounding hisself with lessors, he can be the smartest guy in the room.

Peter C
Reply to  Ed
September 28, 2016 2:45 am

Bullsh!t baffles brains is one of the truest sayings there is. The ‘brainier’ a person is the more certain they become in their positions and the more subject to confirmation bias they become, although the truly ‘brainy’ realise this and actively seek to combat it. Thus the plethora of sayings like, ‘science advances one death at a time’, ‘….. much learning, but little wit ….’.

clipe
September 27, 2016 7:41 pm

Critique of Lewandowsky, S., Cook, J. & Lloyd, E. Synthese (2016)

The authors continue:

“We reject both the possibility and its hypothetical implication.”
Well, you would, wouldn’t you, you slimy little [snip]. Because the very idea that people might have differing views is such anathema that you think that merely demonstrating that some of the people who think that you’re a bunch of pathetic arseholes sometimes say things that are not in accordance with what some other people say (who also think that you’re a bunch of pathetic arseholes) somehow proves that you’re not a bunch of pathetic arseholes. And that by adding the names of Watts, Monckton, Christy and Plimer to a rehash of a blog article by [snip] Cook and using the good offices of philosopher and female orgasm expert Lloyd to get published in a journal of epistemology you can further your nasty fascist project of keeping scepticism out of the public eye.
Well it doesn’t and you can’t.

Reply to  clipe
September 27, 2016 10:09 pm

Geoff,
Lewandowski is not worth the energy you put into refuted his P O S worthless manuscripts (are they even intellectual??) and utter nonsense. He publishes that garbage crap so as to satisfy the pro forma publication criteria for his equally P O S intellectually-void-of-honesty academia faculty at GMU.edu. Jokes them all. Adults of the children enrolled there should pull them out and avoid that worthless educational institution.
But I agree with your spirit and intent.
Joel O’Bryan, PhD

TA
September 27, 2016 7:41 pm

Lew says if you don’t believe what I believe, then there must be something the matter with your way of thinking.
Lew, all skeptics want is some proof of human-caused global warming. As soon as you provide that, we can all get on the same page.

September 27, 2016 7:56 pm

Lewandowsky projects particularly strongly. He’ll make a great case study in the future.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  TimTheToolMan
September 27, 2016 8:00 pm

Bingo.

Bill Illis
September 27, 2016 8:05 pm

All I know, is that as a complete denier, i should not be trusted with a thermonuclear device.
So says, Lewdowsky.
In fact, I should not be trusted to even think for myself.

Justthinkin
September 27, 2016 8:22 pm

“Lewandowsky” is nothing more than a long spelling of bully. When I was a kid,we kicked the crap out of idiots like him. And you let him post here as a scientist?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Justthinkin
September 27, 2016 10:08 pm

“Lewandowsky” is nothing more than a long spelling of bully. When I was a kid,we kicked the crap out of idiots like him. And you let him post here as a scientist?

I guess it takes a bully to know one.

Reply to  Justthinkin
September 28, 2016 5:52 pm

Lew did not post here.

lewispbuckingham
September 27, 2016 8:36 pm

‘body of skeptical climate science. May we remind the 15 years old who may read this text that there is not one scientist who has ever been perfectly coherent,’
The last 15 year old I asked the question of
‘What is the most powerful greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere?
answered ‘CO2’
Talk about an ideation of narrative
Once our budding scientists believe that, its a short step to any belief system.
That is one worth a study.

Ray Boorman
September 27, 2016 8:41 pm

Why does anyone waste time & energy refuting the rubbish that is published by Lewandowsky?

Reply to  Ray Boorman
September 27, 2016 9:06 pm

Entertainment.

Reply to  rishrac
September 28, 2016 4:39 am

+

gnomish
Reply to  Ray Boorman
September 27, 2016 9:54 pm

aha! you get it, eh?
next, ask yourself what would be the point of having your victim chase his tail for hours on end.
follow the train of thought and see where you end up.

Reply to  Ray Boorman
September 28, 2016 5:55 pm

Because we can without wasting a whole lot of either one.

willhaas
September 27, 2016 8:59 pm

I believe that Mankind’s burning up Earth’s very finite supply of fossil fuels in order to support his out of control population growth is not such a good idea. I would like to use AGW as another reason to conserve on the use of fossil fuels but the AGW conjecture has too many flaws to defend. Despite the hoopla, there is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate. There is no such evidence in the paleoclimate record. In part to provide evidence the IPCC sponsored the generation of a plethora of climate models. The large number of such models is evidence that a lot of guess work was employed in their creation. The large number provided a wide range of predictions for today’s global temperatures. But these models do have one thing in common. They have all been wrong. They have predicted global warming that has not happened. If these models provide any evidence at all it is that there is something basically wrong with the AGW conjecture. There is plenty of scientific rationale to support that idea that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is really zero and that the climate change we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which Mankind has no control.
If CO2 did effect climate then one would expect that the increase in CO2 over the past 30 years would have caused a noticeable change in the environmental lapse rate in the troposphere but that has not happened. Central to the AGW conjecture is the concept of a radiant greenhouse effect. A real greenhouse does not stay warm because of the heat trapping effects of so called greenhouse gases. A real greenhouse stays warm because the glass limits cooling by convection. It is a convective greenhouse effect. So too on Earth. The Earth’s surface is 33 degrees C warmer because of the atmosphere because gravity limits cooling by convection. The convective greenhouse effect as derived from first principals is responsible for all 33 degrees C. There is no room for an additional radiant greenhouse effect. A radiant greenhouse effect has not been detected on any planet in the solar system, not even Venus with an atmosphere more than 90 times more massive than the Earth’s atmosphere and more than 96% CO2. If CO2 were such a great insulator then one would expect that there exist engineering applications of CO2’s insulating properties but there are not any. The problems with the AGW conjecture are not a matter of psychology but a matter of physical science and mathematics.

Reply to  willhaas
September 28, 2016 12:38 am

You use reason and logic against the field of human psychology.
That’s like quantum physics standard model versus phlogiston and alchemy.
The first is science, the latter is hokum and hand-waving.

commieBob
Reply to  willhaas
September 28, 2016 4:18 am

The convective greenhouse effect as derived from first principals is responsible for all 33 degrees C. There is no room for an additional radiant greenhouse effect.

… and yet the world bashes into and out of glaciations. The temperature swing could be 8° C. If we look back 50 million years, the temperature may have been 12° C warmer. That’s a total of 20° C as compared to 33° C for the ‘greenhouse effect’.
I agree that convection is the main thing that governs the planet’s temperature, but there are other things at work and they have a significant effect.

willhaas
Reply to  commieBob
September 28, 2016 7:06 pm

But there is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate.

Reply to  willhaas
September 28, 2016 5:30 pm

“I believe that Mankind’s burning up Earth’s very finite supply of fossil fuels in order to support his out of control population growth is not such a good idea.”
*
The fact is that fossil fuels have elevated populations OUT of poverty and AWAY from population growth. Population growth levels out in rich countries with abundant cheap energy.

willhaas
Reply to  A.D. Everard
September 28, 2016 7:04 pm

But the supply of fossil fuels is very finite. When the fuel runs out those that depend on fossil fuels will be in big trouble.

Reply to  A.D. Everard
September 28, 2016 7:23 pm

I read your objection to be that we were using fossil fuel “in order to support his [Mankind’s] out of control population growth”. Population, not that fuel was finite.
Fossil fuels may indeed be finite, but we still have enough for hundreds of years at the very least and with new technology quite a bit longer than that. Who knows where our explorations will take us and what we will find before then. The future will look after itself. There is no point in putting ourselves now (and our children) into “big trouble” by pulling the plug on our own resources today and collapsing civilization as we know it purely because of unfounded fears and illusions.
Fear-mongering has been around a very long time. Overpopulation, shortages (such as food and fossil fuels) and end-of-the-world scenarios have been held up as “punishment for our sins” (meaning it’s all mankind’s fault) for years, never once being anywhere near to the truth. Each generation is brought into it as new stories are told and dates are shifted.

willhaas
Reply to  A.D. Everard
September 29, 2016 2:57 pm

A few hundred years is not very long at all. The Earth’s space and resources are finite yet we have been growing our population as if they were infinite. Remember that those who fail to plan, plan to fail. If Mankind does not control his own population then Nature will, catastrophically. Why do we need so many more people? Why must we burn up Earth’s finite resources of fossil fuel just as quickly as possible? Sure, advances in technology have been allowing us to get at more fossil fuel but the resource is still finite and when it is gone, it is gone. To avoid catastrophe, Mankind must switch to alternate sources of energy and reduce our population so that these alternate sources of energy will satisfy our needs. We must do this before the fuel runs out.

Reply to  A.D. Everard
September 29, 2016 3:17 pm

Population is steadying itself very well in all countries that have a wealth of power. This is happening. Rich countries have a population that generally have two children whereas poorer counties have populations that give birth to four or six.
Three hundred years is also quite long and our power sources (coal, oil, gas) have not all been identified, meaning there is more available and more to come. Some estimates already have claimed we have enough oil and gas now to see us 800-1000 years, but I stuck with a more conservative estimate for fairness sake.
Two hundred years ago there was serious concern that the streets of London would fill with horse manure because there were so many horses in London. The people back then might have concerned themselves with how their children and grandchildren would cope with such a problem. As it turns out, the problem never eventuated thanks to the automobile – something they did not see on the horizon.
We should not fear things that may never eventuate – it’s a waste of time, effort and enjoyment of life. As problems arise they will be dealt with, as we have always done.
Way back in 1970, at the ripe age of 12, I was indoctrinated into believing that we were running out of oil and would have none left within ten years. I was told that we would have no food within 20 years and that by the year 2000 there would be standing room only – the situation would be that bad. There were many other doom-and-gloom stories told to me at that age (such as the Great Barrier Reef being no more).
The point is, that was 46 years ago! And the hype continues.
A rich nation with a rich and healthy population looks after the environment and does not over-populate its boundaries, it’s as simple as that. Oh, and the stories are just that – stories. You are being manipulated for gain (always watch out for that guilt-lever, it’s their favorite tactic of those who want control, power and money).

September 27, 2016 9:08 pm

“Idiotic” sums up most “intellectials” in my experience.

Val
September 27, 2016 9:10 pm

Me thinks that attention like this is exactly why these clowns publish such gibberish. The appropriate reaction is.. YAWN..
What doesn’t seem to be appreciated is that they are SUPPOSED TO BE incoherent. After all, they are PSYCHOLOGISTS.

gnomish
Reply to  Val
September 27, 2016 10:13 pm

this is their fame and glory:
them make up arguments intended to distract the other side from the real issues and waste the opponent’s time and effort.
they succeed like a boss. they are very competent at this craft.
they put up strawmen andppl fire their arrows at them. while so occupied, are outflanked and never know what hit em.
they are the matadors waving the red cape. the bull who chases it gets the sword.
the set the tarbaby up on the post. all the stupid rabbits get stuck on it because they can’t resist touching it.

September 27, 2016 10:12 pm

o We’re not basing our opinions on the data, we’re basing them on the models
o We can’t find the missing heat (and it is a tragedy)
o We found the missing heat, it is hiding in the oceans
o No, we think it leaked out at the poles, perhaps to do with the ozone hole
o No, no, no, we figured out that the heat must be hiding in the places where we aren’t measuring temperature
o No wait, we adjusted the data and now the heat isn’t missing anymore
o OK, never mind the models, they run too hot, we’re going with expert judgment now
o 97% of us agree. On something. You’re not allowed to ask exactly what because you aren’t a climate scientist and wouldn’t understand the answer anyway.
o The models use wildly different values for aerosols and cloud feedback, but that’s OK because we just average them together.
Who, exactly, is incoherent?

Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 28, 2016 3:53 am

Nice summary, thanks for that!

Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 28, 2016 4:46 am

+100

Reply to  davidmhoffer
September 28, 2016 5:32 pm

+1000 🙂

September 27, 2016 10:21 pm

Thank you for your contribution Dr. Godefridi. I most certainly agree with your position and I hope it will be understood by my peers.
Very nice work.

Eyal Porat
September 27, 2016 11:14 pm

Projection all the way down.
🙂

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