This article was transcribed from a newspaper clipping sent to me, it predicts a long term dramatic change may be possible in the Arctic, describing “unheard of temperatures reported in the Arctic zone”. Further, reports indicate “great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones” indicating glacier retreat. The report goes on to say that “At many points, well known glaciers have entirely disappeared” and “Everywhere, rocks are exposed that never before have been touched by the sun’s rays, and some large snow fields presumably everlasting, have disappeared entirely.
All indications are that the Arctic is undergoing and irreversible change. There’s only two problems:
1. Man-made global warming isn’t mentioned, in fact it wouldn’t even be a defined term yet for decades.
2. The article is from the Anchorage Daily Times, November 2nd, 1922.
You can read the entire article here:
ADT-article-1922 (PDF) h/t to WUWT reader Chris Beheim
And to show what goes around comes around again, we have this more recent but similar headline:
Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report
REYKJAVIK, Iceland — Get ready to order those beach umbrellas in Barrow. One of the leading authorities on the physics of northern seas is predicting an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2020.
That’s about two decades sooner than various models for climatic warming have indicated the Arctic might fully open.
“No models here,” Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. “This is data.”
Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.
This data shows ice volume “is accelerating downward,” Wadhams said. “There doesn’t seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.
“By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. … (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free.”
Full story here: http://www.adn.com/article/20141102/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-un-releases-climate-report
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Wow – what a load of crap.
How scientifically illiterate are people to swallow this garbage?
I think you’ve got a “two-fer”. The front page also shows continuing chaos in Mexico following the collapse of governance by the ‘cientificos’ under Porfirio Diaz. Pilots have a saying, “Never trust your life to an engine.” Perhaps politicians should be thinking, “Never trust your freedom to a scientist.”
Perhaps citizens should be thinking “Never trust politicians to provide accurate information on the findings of Science.” and “Never trust the intellectual integrity of those who reject the findings of Science.”
Wrong question, I think.
The real question is why are the self-declared smart ones so gullible?
They need to think they are in control , in short they more smart than they are.
They forgot melting glaciers linked to the spread of salt arctic
It was 1922, these people had an excuse. Now days however…
Warmists….making it up as they go along…since 1987.
“Ice volume is accelerating downward”.
Please see the last 3 years of PIOMASS data.
He forgot to add, “fresh, hand-picked data, by myself”. Only the best data, you can be sure.
Honest. Draw a straight line to show the “trend”, and bingo, the ice goes kaput.
Are sinusoidal functions left out of applied mathematics now?
You can approximate a portion of a sinusoidal function by a straight line with over 97% accuracy. I do it often.
Well that might be a first coming from a warmest. Apparently, our continued hammering of the on-going falsification of the climate models seems to be starting to win the day. To start a quote by saying no models were used, seems to me to be a good sign. And then of course he has to go and ruin it by saying that it’s even worse than the models say…
<blockquote.By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear.
Looks like an opportunity for another countdown clock widget here at WUWT and more ridicule that can be heaped on a warmist in October 2020. I plan to still be here.
Bruce
oops messed up the second quote…
Wadmams is on record already as saying that the arctic would be ice-free during the summer in 2014, or perhaps 2013. (Likely he put in some prefix such as, “as early as”, which gets him off the hook when he is wrong. )
[Wow – what a load of crap.] Seems codetech doesn’t like inconvenient facts. Climate science has been postulating the apocalypse from the beginning. Not much has changed in 100yrs
??? He is implying what you imply…
Its a double down, he’s lost before, but double down and give a 5 year window, pray for a break…=validation
And here was me thinking only people from previously obscure universities, such as East Anglia, were engaging in stupidity. Turns out all stupidity is spreading to more high profile ones as well. I predict that by 2020 the world’s Universities will be completely intelligence free.
not “spreading” – that should be seepage in proper parlance of the day
Wicked I will bet you there were free of intelligence by about 2008.
Well I think that would be simply wonderful.
If the arctic warms up, then that will make it a more efficient radiator so it will do a better job at cooling the earth than it is doing now; which ain’t much.
So I’m all for a temperate arctic.
Turns out the real problem is AGS – Anthropgenic Global Stupidity…
AGS – I love it! Kudos to Leo Smith!
Homo sapiens being replaced by Homo ignoramus!
Convenient science for the ” inconvenient truth ” ?
I know. With 2020 – 2015,Climatologist’s Five Year Plan….
Meanwhile, side by cryosphere snow cover pics indicate that current northern hemisphere snow cover is larger than anything previously displayed.
There is still hope.
He forecasted the Arctic would be ice-free in 2016 in 2013.
He has now increased this by 4 years.
In 2020 he will predict it in 8 years and in 2020 he will predict it in 16 years.
Applied mathematics; cnverget infinite series!
As in 1/x ??
Excellent.
Seems to me that there is one constantly renewable resource.
Totally sustainable even.
No effort needed.
Human Stupidity.
Yeah. it’s a resource for the con men. Who was it that said, “There’s a sucker born every minute?” PT Barnum?
wtf
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
Yes another anomaly with a base line that begins in 1979, By golly that must be the beginning of Earth’s history. Since I was born 28 years prior to that I guess I don’t really exist.
No Tom, you do exist.
You and I are just prehistoric.
Antediluvian – at best!
Auto – a full couple of years younger than Tom in Florida!
Perhaps I should change my screen name to Otzi in Florida
I like to point out that 1980 to 2004 (+/- a few years) was the positive or warm phase of the PDO and AMO. In another 20-25 years we’ll have a true average from a complete cycle of +/- PDO & AMO. As you can see from the graph it does appear to be bottoming out around 2012 and starting to reverse. The oceans are so important to climate and get overlooked so much.
TRM
Sir, have you no idea of the value, and expense, of a sea view – so allowing the purchaser to overlook the ocean (s)
Auto, in a land-locked view . . . . .
It must be that this is not news, this is olds from 2012, at which point, by using a linear model incorrectly, you could get results like Wadhams got.
Funny how the alarmistic crap circulates and there is no MSM complaining about that.
I seem to recall that there are some satellite photos of the Arctic taken in about 1974 that show that ice extent in 1974 was less than in 2014.
One of the reason behind the global cooling scare in the mid to late 70s was the rapid increase in Arctic ice.
The 1979 data now used by the warmist camp, conveniently coincides with the peak of that increase.
In recent years, the Arctic has merely been returning to ice extent levels seen in the early 1970s, although it now looks like it may be once again increasing in extent for the next few years.
I seem to recall that there are some Navla bulletins in the 1880s expressing concern at Arctic ice loss.
It appears to be nothing more that than cycular changes.
Richard V – It seems to me that your recollection is faulty. Can you by any chance provide a link to these “satellite photos of the Arctic taken in about 1974”?
I would have to spend some time looking, but just a quick search reveals:
Not quite what I was thinking of, but it too suggests that at the start of 1976 ice conditions were less extensive compared to today.
Richard V – That looks like the Antarctic to me. How about you?
You might be referring to IPCC FAR. I don’t know its status, but Steven Goddard likes it.
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/arctic-ice-almost-identical-to-1974/
“Steven Goddard”! Surely you jest Hugh?
Here’s the NSIDC’s version. 1953-2012!
What we see at the end of the graph is the cold AMO beginning, if I interpret what I learned on weatherbell.com correctly. Arctic ice will cycle back up if history is any indicator, especially when the PDO also goes negative and we are in an atypically deep solar minimum.
You may care to consult the PIOMAS regional data:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/gridded-piomas-graphs/piomas-regional-volume/
You will no doubt immediately spot that sea ice volume everywhere that matters outside the CAB is below April 2013
Hilarious, only problem is this garbage has the potential to wreck the world economy.
Absolutely.
But it is not so bad, we just need the economic tools to cash the people’s feeling of insecurity, and voila, the economy will grow. It is unjustified to let stupid people keep their money.
/not entirely sarc
What potential; it already has.
So long term dramatic change may be possible even without global warming or it’s latest marketing handle “climate change”. Who knew. I thought dramatic climate change was only possible after we started making plastics and driving cars and using plentiful and reliable electricity to spawn a computing and communication network of unprecedented proportions.
Learn something new everyday.
Sarcasm aside the problem when talking of possibilities especially long term possibilities is that literally anything is possible. Long term it is possible human DNA will mutate in way that a new species of humanity will appear that will be to us as we are today to chimps. The second coming is possible as well with Star Trek like transporters transporting people to heaven. The first possibility is more likely than the second but in the end both are nothing more than day dreaming. Day dreaming is absolute fun, a great pass time, and perhaps an evolutionary necessity however would not bet the house or even a cup of coffee and doughnut on long term day dreams.
Observing the beliefs of CAGW sheeple, I think human DNA is currently mutating toward the chimps.
@noaa, wow is it getting that high?
thickness?…….really?
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnowcast.gif
I like the colors as I didn’t know that thicker ice was “hotter” ice.
Most definitely. When ice is really thick, it produces enough heat to boil the kettle.
Then you obviously haven’t heard “Suit and Tie” by Justin Timberlake
didn’t know that the Mediterranean is covered by 3.75 meter thick ice.
You must be color blind. The color shown in the Mediterranean is not on the Key. I don’t know why the Mediterranean is a different color than the gray shown in the rest of the oceans.
Speaking of ice thickness and open water, my latest post also has a historical perspective, to counter some fear-mongering from a polar bear activist who thinks a bit of open water in May is a portend of doom (https://twitter.com/AEDerocher/status/598551439514804224 )
Beaufort Sea, to be exact, and the development of spring polynyas:
http://polarbearscience.com/2015/05/15/beaufort-sea-polynyas-open-two-weeks-before-1975-open-water-is-good-news-for-polar-bears/
Dr. Susan Crockford, Zoologist
Thanks Susan.
As always, very informative.
Susan – Here’s a picture from on high of some no longer landfast sea ice breaking up as we speak. Amundsen Gulf to be exact. Early, or not?
https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/600317511977033728
Has the cat got your tongue as well as Caleb’s Susan?
More available from antartica
http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-study-shows-antarctica-s-larsen-b-ice-shelf-nearing-its-final-act
Does it mean that the Vikings will be able to return to Greeenland?
We’d have to get it warm enough to grow barley in Greenland, which the Vikings were able to do. In order to do that we’d have to warm the winters, so the permafrost doesn’t get so thick, and can melt in the spring.
My guess is that in the Medieval Warm Period there was less ice in the Arctic Sea north of Greenland in September, and that it took longer to freeze those waters up in November and December. Until those waters froze up, north winds would have been more like maritime winds than arctic winds. Though Decembers would have been as dark, the freezing-up of the soil would have taken longer to start, and the soil would have had less ice to melt in the spring, and barley could have started growing earlier.
Another factor is that the water west of Greenland was apparently much warmer. The sagas mention a Viking swimming out to an island to get a goat for dinner, in waters that would swiftly cause hypothermia, if someone attempted to swim in them now.
Climate Scientists seem unwilling to admit how much warmer it had to be in the Medieval Warm Period to grow barley. I suppose it spoils their narrative.
It appears that Columbus, Ohio will become the North Pole.
on the extent of ice……….every year since 1979.
…and three people actually fell for it
So they’re in a panic over the temperatures going up two degrees. But if that means an increase from -40 to -38, isn’t everything still frozen solid? Wouldn’t the average temp have to increase by something like 60 degrees for it to become a “temperate zone”?
The above plot is not temperature, but ice extent.
The ice extent in 1974/5 was less than it is in 2014.
There are some satellite photos backing that up.
Aside from the obvious, does anyone know why the NSIDC data from 1974 is not shown on Cryosphere, since they have it ?
I’m curious, because when this treatment of the data started, wouldn’t that have been before the “let’s all commit scientific disingenuity in presentation of data” meme started ?
I believe that their excuse is the Satellite is a different model and technique, so they conveniently start in 1979 when it changed.
One is extent the other is volume.
This indicates that the oceans were venting heat, IE cooling. When they cool, they warm us up.
“Expert predicts” – there’s your problem there.
True “experts” don’t do predictions, their genuine expertise telling them it is a dumb thing to do unless the matter at hand is something they have seen over and over again. In that case they are not so much “predicting” let alone “forecasting” as stating an expectation based on experience and subsequent rigorous analysis.
“Experience” and “rigourous” do not come into consideration regards CAGW and all its bastard offspring. CAGW is the province of witch doctors, shamans and alchemists, the latter being at the respectable end of the spectrum.
Arctic ice isn’t following the alarmist narrative:
http://36.media.tumblr.com/b835c0fc2b0a25b008f736419e545cf6/tumblr_inline_nnty350Cn51qij8k6_500.png
Stealey, as usual, is posting absolute trash:
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. NSIDC has issued an update to Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis describing winter sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean.
“Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its maximum extent for the year on February 25 at 14.54 million square kilometers (5.61 million square miles). This year’s maximum ice extent is the lowest in the satellite record.”
warrenlb says that I’m…
…posting absolute trash
LOLOL!!
warrenlb constantly posts absolute trash, day after day, with his ridiculous appeal to authority logical fallacies. But when he sees a few charts that cause him to get dizzy from cognitive dissonance, he desperately scrambles to find a quote that only compares “maximum extent” — as if that’s going to negate the fact that Arctic ice is on the rebound.
And of course, warrenlb only cherry-picks Arctic ice because of the temporary, natural dip over the past few years. But during those years global ice has remained at or above its long term average. The debate is about global warming. If it were not for his cherry-picking and logical fallacies, warrenlb’s post would look like this: [” … “].
warrenlb is a parody of the typical climate alarmist. He only pre-selects and cherry-picks those factoids he can find that support his confirmation bias. He’s clueless but he’s also amusing, because he’s so very predictable.
Finally, warrenlb never has answered my question: what would it take to change his mind, and admit that he is wrong? Twenty years with no global warming? Five more years of increasing Arctic ice? A mile thick glacier over Chicago again? What?
In warren’s case, nothing can convince him he’s wrong. That’s amusing, too.
Typical. Stealey….long on insults, short on data….none in this case. And NO denial of the Nsidc data. We’ve caught him in another flat out obfuscation.
One wonders what it would take for ol’ Smokey to change *his* mind…
Could we call the Headline from 1922 to the present the great leap forward? Just asking.
Maybe a full circle has occurred?
Wouldn’t the $22 billion/year currently being spent to promote climate terror be better applied to the design of submersible cities?
If sea level rise is thought to be a factor, why not just NOT build cities close to the oceans? No need to design submersible ones!
I would put the money into safeguarding existing power grids from solar events and building infrastructures to bring scrubbed coal power to Africa and the third world, thereby enabling the reversal of population growth which Asia has experienced in past decades. Controlling climate can only come from it’s full understanding (which I can not find any empirical accomplishment thereof). Until that time, it is foolish to destroy the present economic and governmental paradigm and replace it with a new experiment in civilization, based on the abstinence from normal human activity which happens to produce “carbon pollution”.