Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
It’s been almost 2 years since Cook et al. (2013) Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature was published. If you’re like me, you’ve lost track of the paper’s flaws, there were just so many, and how it is misrepresented, which is most of the time. Richard Tol has published an excellent summary of Cook et al. (2013) in his blog post Global warming consensus claim does not stand up (author’s cut). An edited version appeared in the Australian on March 24, 2015.
Richard’s post begins:
Now almost two years old, John Cook’s 97% consensus paper has been a runaway success. Downloaded over 300,000 times, voted the best 2013 paper in Environmental Research Letters, frequently cited by peers and politicians from around the world, with a dedicated column in the Guardian, the paper seems to be the definitive proof that the science of climate change is settled.
It isn’t.
And it concludes:
If you want to believe that climate researchers are incompetent, biased and secretive, Cook’s paper is an excellent case in point.
The rest of Richard Tol’s post is here. It’s well worth the time. Also see Andrew Montford’s comments about it in his post The Institute of Physics is Corrupt at BishopHill.
UPDATE: Jo Nova has included parts of Richard’s article in her post The 97% Cook Consensus – when will Environ Res Letters retract it?
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And I would say “If you want to believe” anything…. you will.
Excellent point…
…and the Cook paper survives, not one published paper against it. Even Tol’s analysis supports the Cook paper, just some 7% off. So what cooks?
[SNIP – “ren”, when are you going to learn that posting weather maps via your usual link bombing is not only WILDLY OFF TOPIC, but rude as well. I’ve warned you about this before. This is my final warning to you. – Anthony]
so dat’s why it be’s chilly here at my home in east texas this morning. at least I’m just on the edge of it, and it’ll warm up again by the weekend.
So, based on the map, temperatures in the USA are on average normal.
The Cook Report has been dissected by Professor Legates and others at the University of Delaware. Professor Legates in his paper in the journal of Science and Education found that only 41 papers of the 11 944 abstracts in the Cook report or 0.3 percent endorsed the theory of antropogenic global warming. Dr Craig Idso, Dr Nils Axel Morner, Dr Nicola Scafette, Dr Nir Shaviv have all protested that Cook misrepresented their work.
But as Cook himself would say, what you gonna do about it?
It explains a lot about the totalitarian bias of most MSM and certain politicians that the obvious flaws of the “97% consensus paper” are simply ignored by them…
“totalitarian bias”?
Or just plain laziness?
Don’t leave out “Group Think.”
Its not laziness, they know what they are doing.
I don’t think it’s laziness, either.
imo…Cook et al lied babies died.
They believe it’s necessary to be a lying thief like Peter Gleick…
for the cause.
Has Gleick done any science since he got promoted for lying?
@Oldseadog
Um, well – maybe both – but the alleged majority percentage of 97% is in a way totalitarian by itself. Such unrealistic high numbers were usually given as pro-communist “election”-consents in stalinist ruled nations…
I still believe that there is a majority of all scientists of maybe 60 – 70 % who believe in man-made Global warming, because they are also humans, of course, and therefore are prone to quite common human tendencies like conformism, group think, “zeitgeist” ideologies, and – last but not least – opportunistic career-enhancing thinking.
But let’s be clear about one thing, though a majority of 60 – 70 % might be more realistic, it does not mean that they are right, as many examples of past paradigm shifts in science prove…
GT – the original ‘97% consensus’ study DID come out somewhere around that number as I recall, before they started cutting out ‘unqualified’ responders – but I can never find the info on that study (the one that started with 10k questionnaires and ended up with 77 respondents in the final results)
TonyG
TonyG,
I think you’re thinking of Doran/Zimmerman. There was a discussion here in 2013. Not sure if I can post a link correctly, but I think this is it:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/10/an-oopsie-in-the-doranzimmerman-97-consensus-claim/
From the article:
If the link doesn’t work, just check this article.
TonyG
March 26, 2015 at 9:21 am
GT – the original ‘97% consensus’ study DID come out somewhere around that number as I recall, before they started cutting out ‘unqualified’ responders – but I can never find the info on that study (the one that started with 10k questionnaires and ended up with 77 respondents in the final results)
Exactly. They effectively spammed an entire community and then winnowed the minority responding for a miniscule minority of allegedly “climate scientists.” Yet even among those the “consensus” was not a total one.
PhilR – thank you, that was the one. I need to bookmark that link 🙂
Is it possible for someone else to redo the “study” and do it right? I realize that it would require lots of time and effort (actually reading at least the abstracts, honestly recording data about the content with respect to well-formulated criteria, and treating the data with scientific rigor before arriving at results); but if someone–or several honest, objective people–were to do this, it just might help to counteract the non-scientific junk that is out there crudding things up now. Just a thought . . .
John, its not worth redoing it. The result is a mere proxy for one sided funding, and at best gives us a little more information about the sociological culture of climate research. It’s not worth whatever money it would take.
I would rather survey all scientists (across many fields) to get an estimate of what the true scientific consensus is. A consensus of certified government funded climate publishing people is constantly misrepresented in the press as a consensus of all scientists.
Though the pursuit of “consensus” is a waste of time as far as our climate knowledge goes, at least a better understanding of it would poke a hole in the PR meme.
Precisely. Consensus is a political thing. Asking “climate scientists” government funded or not if we are headed to a climate disaster, is like asking defense company CEO’s if the military needs more weapons and ammunition. Who is going to say their job is not needed or unimportant?
“A consensus of certified government funded climate publishing people…”
And the words government funded should be mentioned in every report related to AGW.
When I was younger we were taught that a neutrino has no mass. The consensus was that gamma ray bursts could not be coming from other galaxies; plate tectonics was not generally accepted.
Consensus only makes sense if you buy the “settled science” canard.
Lord Keynes once said when challenged-“when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?”
In climate change all too often when the facts change, they change the facts.
How many studies use climate models to create missing data and then append this data onto real data?
Jo, do we even yet know who the (peer) reviewers were?
I’m sure Cook et al were and are fully aware of the flaws in their study. Even if it were formally refuted by another “peer-reviewed” paper, it’s pretty certain that second study wouldn’t get anywhere near the media attention – the 97% myth is out there, and it is going to hang around as a zombie no matter what.
I’m not sure if Cook’s method is doable at all. imo, It seems too subjective.
I would rather see a questionnaire to earth scientists that asks:
“Based on your personal study and research, how much time have you determined we have before man made CO2 causes significant permanent damage?”
Give them brackets. eg
Within 10 years
10-20 years
20-50 years
50-100 years
100-500 years
Two Days Before The Day After Tomorrow. (iirc, this is the approved “Team” answer)
What the hell, let’s throw in
“I don’t know”
and
“You’re joking, right?” as choices.
It’d be a whole new ball game.
One other thing might be included:
“I have done no research in this area.”
Walt D
When the facts change, you need to change your ‘model’.
At least if you wan’t to keep your ‘results’
Jonas N
I’m not sure that changing the model would do any good. Christopher Essex maintains that it is impossible to produce an accurate model of atmospheric turbulence, and even if we could, the numerical solution is fraught with difficulties. Tim Ball, in a recent debate, actually quoted the IPCC saying that it was not possible to model a chaotic system.such as the atmosphere.
Thank you, Jo Nova! I am reassured and relieved. I am sure you are right. I’m glad I asked, though.
When looking a 3 of the 97% studies I got this.
As Legates et al., 2013 pointed out, Cook defined the consensus as “most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic.” Cook then relied on three different levels of “endorsement” of that consensus and excluded 67% of the abstracts reviewed because they neither endorsed nor rejected the consensus.
Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, 2009
An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists. The database was built from Keane and Martinez [2007], which lists all geosciences faculty at reporting academic institutions, along with researchers at state geologic surveys associated with local Universities, and researchers at U.S. federal research facilities (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey, NASA, and NOAA (U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) facilities; U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories; (and so forth).
This brief report addresses the two primary questions of the survey
With 3146 individuals completing.
In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total). Of these specialists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen” to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2.
the AMS survey Stenhouse et al., 2014.
In this survey, global warming was defined as “the premise that the world’s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the world’s climate may change as a result.”
Questions –
So answering the questions –
1) most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic?
2) When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant? (Yes/No?)
3) Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?
4) Regardless of the cause, do you think that global warming is happening?
5) How sure are you that global warming (a. is /b. is not) happening?
Answeres and qustions use generalized words of most, think, significant, contriubuting and no values or significance is asked for. No where is proof or date or +/- estimates required and did you see CO2 anywhere?
Do these questions really provide the answer that man-made, catastrophizing, CO2 control knob, ever increasing (global warming / climate change / disruption / weirding ) [pick 1 or more] which can only be prevented by higher taxes, more regulations and a loss of personal freedom to keep us all from floating down the River Styx in a handbasket?
Walt D, my comment was tongue -in-cheek. A bit like:
If you you like your global warming trend, you can keep your global warming trend. Period! That’s what we’re here for!
😉
We can presume that when the opinion of all climate scientists and experts in climate were summed instead of only those with ‘more than 50%’ of their published papers on climate topics, the result was considerably different from the fabled 97%.
If it had been similar they would have said, ‘when only experts in climate were considered the result was xx % but when restricted to those with more than half their papers on climate the result was 97%.
I am inclined to believe that ‘the specialists’ as a group were closer to the average for all scientists. Why wouldn’t they be? They are after all self-appointed experts.
Small problem , no one knows how many scientists there are , partly becasue there is no agreed definition of what a scientists even is . Worth remember that when you see these types of claims , becasue in pratice what you are seeing is the same as the ‘nine out of ten cats prefer’ claim . Worthless , biased, conjecture.
A much better and far more nuanced survey was done by Hans Von Storch and Dennis Bray of the GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH • Geesthacht • 2010
http://ncse.com/files/pub/polls/2010–Perspectives_of_Climate_Scientists_Concerning_Climate_Science_&_Climate_Change_.pdf
Far more interesting to read than the 97% “consenus” where nobody knows on what everybody agrees…
In a word, “no.” Objectively, the topic itself is too loaded to avoid a strong self-selection bias among the responders. The folks who do not respond are likely not to have a strong opinion, while those do respond are likely to come from the extremes of the opinion spectrum. To avoid the errors of Cook and crew you would also have to set up a blind data collection system where the people encoding the data were unaware of the content, which is a very fraught process. It may also be impossible to frame a truly neutral survey. Last but not least, the results might tell you about the population sampled, but cannot tell you anything at all about the climate or the legitimacy science involved.
It has become a ‘meme’. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. The only way to destroy it is to ridicule it. Don’t try to disprove it, that would involve logic rather than emotion. If someone says it, you just laugh and shake your head.
Agree. Ridicule and humour are the only ways to kill this meme because they bypass logic. Onya, Josh!
You saying it’s ok to ridicule the truth in order to blow it down if it’s inconvenient Alex? Surely not . . Ridicule can never be an acceptable way to deal with any claim that’s achieved any kind of acceptability. The only way to deal with it is to take it apart and expose its flaws . . otherwise you become part of the anti-science movement . .
It has been taken apart.
It’s flaws are exposed.
But the media still report it as though it isn’t debunked.
The 97% paper needs to be approached the same way we approach homeopathy. It’s disproven and nonsensical.
Don’t give it a veneer of scientific respectability.
Mark Twain considered the mock (mocking people) to be a powerful tool.
satire is often the only weapon against the state.
climate science demonstrates the dangers in government funded science, when scientific inquiry becomes wedded to political party platform. science becomes slave to politics. truth is replaced by political correctness.
Jim Hogg, that’s a famous name in my part of the world. We’re competing for the attention of people who have a 30 second attention span, at most, and who read messages with a max of 117 characters at a time, no more. That’s mass society today; taking apart something and exposing its flaws can never be done in that kind of context. If you want to reach the average consumer today, the message has to be in a form in which someone like Jon Stewart could shout it in 10 seconds, get a laugh, and then move on to the next topic. So, ridicule is pretty much our only option if we want the public to listen.
jim hogg March 26, 2015 at 4:03 am
I don’t ridicule from the outset. It has been debunked several times in the last 2 years. I’m getting quite sick of it now. Obama and his cronies keep bringing up that number even though it is patently false. It’s convenient for them to just quote it.
It’s about time people laughed when he quotes it now. Maybe he will have enough intelligence to ask his handlers what the laughter is about.
Fat chance of that. I’ve come across idiots like that before. the CEO of our company got the figures all screwed up and was berating us for getting 20% under budget for sales. His assistant pointed out to him that we were all 20% over budget. What did he do? Continued berating us.
I think abortion laws should be changed to allow for terminations up to 60 years. There is no hope for some people.
Ridicule is all that’s left at some point in time.
“It’s been almost 2 years…..”
Nice to have this old chestnut dredged up (again) to keep this fresh in the minds of us Villagers. We all know that 97% of Climate Scientists agree that either there is no global warming, if there is it’s the Suns fault, if it’s not the Sun it’s natural variation, or something else – but they’re just too scared to say so because of thier fear of ‘The Team’.
And we all know that 97% of those Climate Scientists’ predictions\projections\BS have been wrong, horribly wrong. embarrassingly wrong. There has never been a bigger failure in the history of Modern Science.
Which means their theory (and yours as well) is wrong and must be discarded.
Disagree? Prove me wrong. You can’t.
Sorry to dredge up the old chestnut of reality to you.
No lie is too big for the alarmists and it will only get worse in the run up to Paris.
Yep, like the NSIDC lie that there was a record low maximum in the Arctic this year, while there’s still plenty of time for a late growth spurt. “Arctic Sea Ice extents have been “peaking” later the past 8 to 15 years”:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/14/sea-ice-101-beware-the-ideas-of-march-was-the-arctic-maximum-early-on-march-8-9-2/
Meanwhile the Arctic Sea Ice recovery continues apace
Or the lie of the warmest winter on record:
http://www.livescience.com/50189-warmest-winter-2015.html
Idiot:
Your link says:
Human-caused global warming, from emissions of greenhouse gases, is a major contributor to the continued rise in global temperature…
…and you believe that carp? Really? As an idiot, you’re upholding your reputation. Does it feel all warm and fuzzy to read preposterous nonsense like that? Global warming stopped 18+ years ago, but you eco-religionists cannot accept reality.
There are blogs for people like you. This isn’t one of them; this isn’t a religious site. Go worship your false eco-god somewhere else.
@dbstealey:
http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
They are ‘only’ 197 Scientific and Engineering Associations, representing tens of thousands of Scientists and Engineers, who have gone on record stating that human-caused climate change is real. Here is just ONE of those Associations, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS): “The overwhelming evidence of human-caused climate change documents… extraordinary future risks to society…many people do not yet understand that there is a small, but real chance of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts… around the world”
http://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-the-facts/
Go ahead and tell these people they are part of a religion. This should be interesting.
warrenbot,
I challenge you to try and post for a week without falling back on your Appeal to Authority fallacy.
Betcha can’t do it…
Cook work has never been a reflection of reality , therefore showing how in pratice reality does not support it has no effect . It is mistake making time and again to think that if you can prove something is factual invalid in the alarmist’s claims you can counter them .
The trouble is that it is not an argument based on facts in the first place, its merely one hiding other the rock of science, and sometimes given the very poor science seen hardly doing that, so proving it factual wrong 100 or 1,000 or even 10,000 times will not work .
You need instead to treat these as arguments over religions dogma which are impervious to facts and expect that for the ‘faithful ‘ no proof will ever been enough .
What would it take to change a devout Christian into a devil worshiper?
What would make him stand up proudly, denounce his God and kneel before Satan.
That’s what we’re talking about for those that have been conned into believing in CAGW, fairies, unicorns and renewable energy.
The more I read about the AGW farce the higher my blood pressure goes! Could or should criminal proceedings be brought against these people for fraud? My energy bills are sky-high because of these greedy clowns. As has already been said, because 97% of scientists say something is so, that does not mean it is, but in this case, whoever paid for this study to be done has been cheated, This can only mean one of two things:
a) They are stupid.
b) They actually wanted the results that Cook found, meaning they are complicit and therefore fraudulent.
Thanks Bob and Anthony for sharing this.
While Cook’s ineptitude should surprise no one, I draw attention to the roles played by the hierarchy of U Queensland, the editor of Environmental Research Letters, Dan Kammen of UC Berkeley, and the publisher, the Institute of Physics.
As Ross McKitrick put it: “it’s not (just) the crime, it’s the cover-up”.
Thanks for writing this Dr. Tol. Very well said.
The thing is that Cook has probably learned to live with the infamy and probably gets off on it, but the weasels who gave this piece of rubbish life probably don’t. So, in future whenever the paper is quoted we should always include a ref to the so-called scientists who sanctioned it. See if they like being constantly reminded of their failure.
What I can not understand is why science and the peer review system has allowed this rubbish to stand unretracted. I did not understand how it got published in the first place — but I really don’t understand why it has not been taken down after all this time.
That’s because the “peer review system” is inherently flawed. It depends upon review by “peers,” but in a culture of scientific specialization, the pool of potential “peers” can be filtered until one is left with only “yay-sayers”, what has come to be labeled “pal review.” This system permits folks like Mann to assert that a professional mathematician or statistician does not understand his (Mann’s) mathematics adequately to critique them, total humbug, it sounds “reasonable” to the hoi polloi and helps create public confidence. Worse, anonymous peer review permits “pals” to review in disguise so that you cannot estimate the objectivity of a review – positive or negative.
Mark
That is a sad story.
Dan Kammen, publicly praised the paper immediately after publication (an editor should always stay aloof) so any critique of Cook is a critique of Kammen. The then-president of the Institute of Physics, the publisher, quickly realized that retracting this paper would mean losing his editor and risking a fight with Berkeley.
The University of Queensland had a big scandal in neurology and a small one in biology, and they can ill afford a third one.
Cook has of course already one retraction to his name – quite a feat for one who has yet to get a PhD – and a second one would be the end of his career. Lewandowski, Cook’s PhD adviser, would also get into trouble.
If you could draw a diagram showing who reviewed , whose ‘research’ what you would probable see is the same names coming up time and again in clusters , with small changes depending on who is starching and whose back needs starching. The word , iIncestuous apply describes this, but don’t but it in Google at work.
So Richard, was it your own ineptitude that caused the 24 flaws in your so-called ‘reanalysis’ of Cook’s paper or something else? Or is the fact that no-one is surprised by now that you are trying to cover up and deflect away from the many flaws and false allegations in your own paper by trying to make up new ‘flaws’ out of thin air on Sou’s blog or your own blog? Or is it that you just can’t seem to add up basic numbers without ‘gremlins’ creeping in?
“After submitting to and being rejected twice by Environmental Research Letters, he (Tol) received some harsh but fair criticism from the reviewers, who listed 24 problems and ways the paper could be improved.”
The only way to improve a ‘paper’ that flawed, was to throw it away.
No it’s a 97% CERTAINTY from 76% of CO2 scientists. But they are 100% sure the planet isn’t flat.
No it’s a claimed 97% CERTAINTY from 76% of CO2 scientists, who make up 0.3% of actual scientists.
When talking about the flaws you don’t really need to dissect the entire paper, it’s DOA. One more analysis of it’s flaws is like trying to add to the discussion of Cyndi Lauper’s fashion sense by noting that her shoes seldom match her handbag.
The problem is: In communicating with the public the AGW crowd relies on the “train wreck” mentality of most media. In a recent article, on this web site, there was a good account of how the media’s use of catastrophe builds audience. No one would pay any attention to TMZ if it wasn’t for the trash. It’s very hard to tell someone “there’s nothing here folks, move along.”
Countering a train wreck requires an equal and opposite train wreck, or at least something catchy, like “save 40% on your heating bill, support global warming,” Use clever titles, like “Is global warming all just gloom and doom?” and then enumerate the benefits.
Folks, quit being practical analysts, what we need here is to start fighting lies with propaganda.
How about, “Love 200% increases in your utility bill? Support global warming research.”
“Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.”
Consider that a ‘cap and trade system’ has not yet been implemented.
Piper Paul
I hate to say it but we’ve got something. Because even the Democrat controlled Congress wouldn’t pass Obama’s cap & trade bill (I’m not certain but I seem to recall that it was authored by Waxman and Markey) he went ahead and had the EPA issue its endangerment finding. Moreover, the POTUS is using virtually every single bureaucratic tool he can to sneak, deceive, or bludgeon his climate change initiatives into place. For instance I suspect the real intent behind his ADA rule requiring motels to outfit swimming pools for ADA compliance (conveniently issued after the 2012 elections) is climate (think of Gleick’s involvement with water use, or automobile use in vacation travel). I also suspect HUD will be used in this game as well (think of Maurice Strong and his statements concerning middle class lifestyles and single family homes being incompatible with the planet).
“…..start fighting lies with propaganda.”
Don’t need propaganda. Just state the facts and a lot of outlets.
Those who don’t believe in climate change are fools. Those who believe Co2 controls the climate are fools. Politicians who believe Co2 controls the climate are fools with an agenda.
and a hand on my wallet
simple question. why does every solution proposes by government funded scholars start with raising taxes? isn’t there a conflict of interests, as they are paid from these increased taxes?
You have to hand it to anyone who can turn 0.3% into 97% and then convince governments and millions of people it’s kosher. They can do my tax returns anytime.
Sorry, Tim, with my conspiricist’s tin-foil hat on I could happily believe that certain governments needed a patsy to give therm a ‘good’ stat. Having got it, Cook is on the hook and the powers that be have their bogeyman. Cook was pimped by government and, unlike most prostitutes, has got to enjoy it.
Back in the ’70s, a friend used to counsel problem teenage girls for social services/probation department.
He said it’s almost impossible to convince a 16 year old girl making a couple hundred a night tax free to give up hooking, go back to school or get a job paying $100 per week.
It looks like climate scientists are showing he was correct.
Climastrologists don’t want to give up prostitution either.
mikerestin,
Good point. It’s the same with Afghan farmers making $40K – $50K a year growing poppies. The gov’t tells them to grow food crops instead — and make $7,000 – $8,000 a year. Who are they gonna listen to? The U.S. government has learned this lesson well, and applies it to the climate scare.
So now we have climate scientists, who have been trained with grant funds the same way that Pavlov’s dogs were trained with dog biscuits. Honest, ethical scientists all seem to be scientific skeptics. All of them. What does that tell us about scientific veracity?
Regarding a “consensus”, there actually might be one supporting phraseology like this:
“There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”
From the Oregon Petition Project
or this
“We, the undersigned, having assessed the relevant scientific evidence, do not find convincing support for the hypothesis that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing, or will in the foreseeable future cause, dangerous global warming.”
From: the International Climate Science Coalition
Bingo! Skeptics are honest and direct in these examples. Both those petitions are backed by extensive peer reviewed publications.
There are no petitions saying the opposite. Why?
How odd that no-one seems to be able to come up with all this ‘extensive peer-reviewed publications’ you claim that supposedly supports the Oregon petition and International Climate Science Coalition stance.
Ceefer,
You are ignoring JohnWho’s comment. Why?
If you can refute both, or either of those statements, here’s your chance to do it.
@Ceefer.
You asked the key question, to which you will never receive an answer from Stealey, because he insists YOU come up with data refuting JohnWho’s claim. In other words, YOU have to disprove an unsupported assertion by JohnWho and supported by Stealey.
Of course, the reason for Stealey’s obfuscation is that are essentially NO such peer -reviewed publications supporting the views of the signers of the OISM. Study after study of the tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers on Climate Change come up with less then 1% that dispute any aspect of AGW, and NONE dispute AGW in its entirety.
Stealey’s next tactic will probably be to launch a personal attack, but he won’t answer your good question.
As usual, the warrenbot adds nothing of substance.
Where are his counter-petitions?
Answer: he doesn’t have any. All the warrenbot does is cry about it. He never posts anything worthwhile, just his usual pointless complaints.
Wake me when he can produce even 1% of the OISM’s numbers. That will be the day.
And of course, Ceefer has disappeared since he cannot credibly respond to my comment above.
Surely the concept of a “consensus” in science is irrelevant at best. A red rag to a bull at worst. Ask all the Giants in the history of science, Galilleo, Newton, Einstein etc. “Consensus” meant absolutely nothing to them. I treasure Galilleo’s muttered comment on the matter: “si muove”.
this from AFP
“Learning more about the past through examining the glaciers could help us predict how our planet will respond when global warming kicks into higher gear — just decades from now, if predictions are right.”
http://www.afp.com/en/news/ice-vault-idea-keep-climates-time-capsule-intact
Odd though that as glaciers melt they reveal what we’ve seen before.
There is life under the glaciers waiting to be re-exposed to the sun.
Not odd at all, since Earth has been warmer than it is now. Tell us how you think this finding of Science contradicts the finding of science that mans burning of fossil fuels is warming the planet?
from the leaked/hacked SkS forum
co-author Dana Nuccitelli said this, when they were trying to actually define what the consensus was!
Dana:
“I’m also confident the first criticism of the paper will be “I’m a denier and based on your definition, I endorse AGW”, assuming our definition is any anthropogenic warming. If deniers fall into our ‘endorse’ category, that substantially weakens our result..”
http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-24-Defining%20the%20scientific%20consensus.html
this wasn’t science it was PR/marketing – crudely – “97% of scientists say” – so dont’t listen to any sceptics..
bcos ‘peer reviewed’ science says so..
a clue is they were marketing it, before they had defined it, or [done] any research
http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-19-Marketing%20Ideas.html
http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/
http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k247/dhm1353/dhm1353056/Kerry_01_zpsgdfkz0oa.png
I’d like to see that chart with the 97% calculation chart next to it, and the logic therein.
Excel won’t let me do that kind of math… 😉
I hate to link to this but as Anthony well knows, merely holding an opinion about CAGW can leave yourself open to any kind of calumny directed your way.
http://grist.org/climate-energy/how-american-journalists-deal-with-climate-deniers/
Yes I read similar articles related to group-think-activism in journalism. To American journalists if you are skeptical of AGW you also
– want to abolish the IRS,
– go to war with Iran,
– and eliminate a woman’s right to choose.
On a bright note they have not associated skeptics with wanting a return to slavery.
Taking positions like the bullets below (from Sez Rosen article) will promote journalistic professionalism, while apparently hard thoughtful research and analysis is to be avoided.
– Persistence: Call what it is — a rejection of the science — and keep calling it that.
– Confrontation: Try to raise the costs of denialism.
Overt activism in journalism has been a problem for a long time, and never has been worse than with AGW. It is a difficult problem since the opposite extreme of false-equivalency is also a problem. Frankly this is only a problem due to stupid and lazy journalists remaining blissfully ignorant about the subjects they cover,
Rick,
I tried to comment there, saying that global warming amounts to 0.7C. I got a meaasage that I have been banned by Grist! That’s news to me.
I guess they don’t want scientific facts. When a blog censors like that, they are admitting that they only want their readers to see their side of things.
I wonder what they think of WUWT, since this site has destroyed Grist every year in the Weblog Awards.
Also see Robin Guenier’s Analysis. http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/WrittenEvidence.svc/EvidenceHtml/4191
It helps to have this in one’s quiver: http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
…and this: http://www.populartechnology.net/2013/02/the-1970s-global-cooling-alarmism.html
And some of my favorite papers aren’t even on their list. –AGF
Thanks, Richard Tol.
I think he got some 97% of the flaws.
Richard Tol completely made up 97% of the flaws.
Until this paper gets an official retraction, my faith in peer review will be very low.
I agree, Richard Tol’s ‘rebuttal’ paper should be retracted. It’s amazing that he found someone to publish it despite how many rejections he got because of his baseless allegations,
I don’t have any faith in peer review. Also, when people habitually lie to me, I don’t trust them.
I don’t know what to do about it, but if chronic lying doesn’t get some kind of major push-back, it will result in disaster.
Agreed. (That persistent rejection of peer-reviewed science = lying).
The warrenbot says:
persistent rejection of peer-reviewed science = lying
Look at that nonsense. Savor it. It is typical of the warrenbot’s cluelessness.
Anyone who has taken the time to read the Climategate emails knows beyond any doubt that the climate peer review system has been thoroughly corrupted. So lemmings like the warrenbot have no choice but to engage in Projection, and accuse those questioning climate pal-review as ‘liars’.
See, folks? You are lying because you are scientific skeptics: you don’t accept anything at face value. You want it verified, or falsified.
warrenbot doesn’t like that. So he says you are lying. I suppose there are no mirrors in a ‘bot’s house.