‘Warmest Year On Record’ Claims Falling Apart Under Scrutiny
The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true. Yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all. –David Rose, Mail on Sunday, 18 January 2015
Last week, according to our crackerjack mainstream media, NASA announced that 2014 was the hottest year, like, ever. No, really. The New York Times began its report with: “Last year was the hottest in earth’s recorded history.” Well, not really. As we’re about to see, this is a claim that dissolves on contact with actual science. But that didn’t stop the press from running with it. –Robert Tracinsk, The Federalist, 19 January 2015
Despite fears that global warming is harming the Arctic region faster than the rest of the world, Greenland is defying climate scientists and currently growing at its fastest rate in four years. The Danish Meteorological Institute reports that Greenland’s ice sheet has seen more growth so far this year than in the last four years. Greenland’s growth in 2015 is also higher than the mean growth for 1990 to 2011. –Michael Bastasch, The Daily Caller, 14 January 2015
What remains of the original description of this ‘warmest year on record’ news? Nothing but bluff, spin, and the uncritical press-release journalism that dominates mainstream reporting on the climate. It may or may not be the hottest year ever, but this is definitely in the running for the most dishonest year on record. –Robert Tracinsk, The Federalist, 19 January 2015
Regardless of which side of the man-made climate change debate you are on, one thing is clear: The claim that 2014 was the warmest year on record is shaky at best. —Inquisitr, 19 January 2015
If anybody is still in any doubt that it is UNSCIENTIFIC to make claims about hottest years, without taking into account error bars, I would advise what the World Meteorological Organisation had to say on the issue in their report on global temperatures for 2006: “All temperature values have uncertainties, which arise mainly from gaps in data coverage. The size of the uncertainties is such that the global average temperature for 2006 is statistically indistinguishable from, and could be anywhere between, the first and the eighth warmest year on record.” –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot of People Know That, 17 January 2015
Global temperatures will resume their long term growth trend within five to 10 years ending the so called pause in global warming, a leading climate scientist has predicted. The pause – which on some measures has gone on since the mid-1990s – continued into 2014 on the basis of global temperature data released last week by US space agency NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US. However, the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will grow sufficiently to overcome the combined impact of various natural climate cooling factors, journalists on a telephone news conference were told last week by Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies. —Reporting Climate Science, 19 January 2015
Wait until tonight’s speech to get the real truth about warming.
sarc
Again the media has been armed with charts starting in 1910 that edit down the 1930’s to accompany the announcement. Also they’re wittling away at 1998-2001 every time I look. Grrr.
I spent a lot of time Sunday post the link to David Rose’s article in my subset of the web.
One journalist in all of the MSM to think of asking about error bars….
Oh, I should check in to see if Dellers has had a chance to play with this. A few more days and Josh ought be able to come up with a cartoon we should turn into a postcard and mail to all the newspapers that have forgotten to check their information.
Don’t matter how untrue, nor how many holes you find in the data. They got their media headlines, and warmest year ever is being repeated ad nauseum everywhere in the world.
Thank you, Anthony. I am glad to see that this is slowly being walked back. Taking the data from selected weather stations, while ignoring others, does wonderful things.
I have yet to see any weather forecast which uses even one decimal place in its rapidly changing numbers. They know they would be laughed off the planet, yet they seem to think that two decimal places has merit in climate hindsight and predictions.
This is not about numbers, or science, it is about an ideology turned religion. Like all other religions, believers will believe, no matter what evidence can be presented. After all, Climate Changes. Who can dispute that?
There is an error in the figure above. The error bars are plotted on a different scale. It should be easy to fix.
Far more people saw and heard the original claim of “warmest year…” than will ever hear any rebuttal.
Why all this desperation just because 2014 is the most likely warmest year for the indexes from BEST, JMA, NOAA and Gistemp? Why is that dishonest? Now it is even a dishonest year…
Take comfort. Cowtan & Way will set the record straight. It seems unlikely that C&W will have 2014 as the most likely candidate for the warmest year. Captures better lower anomalies in the Arctic where C&W has the best methodology for infilling.
Stick to that.
Um, did Gavin Schmidt join the ranks of those proclaiming a “pause” in GW since the late 1990’s?
Warmest Year On Record so What! Hippo’s and Elephants used to roam Britain So it aint the Warmest Year Evah?
So how can it be the warmest year on record if you have records such as below that it was much warmer in the past DOH
Extracts below from link
http://www.nhm.ac.uk/about-us/news/2004/july/news_5293.html
“The fossil bones of hippos, hyena, fish and rodents are providing a rare glimpse of the landscape of East Anglia 500,000-780,000 years ago. The fossil remains point towards a unique find of animals living in Britian during a warmer climate, never previously recorded.”
“The hippos and other animals would have lived in the early Middle Pleistocene where exotic species, now found only in African savanna, would have roamed the landscape.
The ancient hippopotamus (Hippopotamus sp.) weighed about six to seven tonnes, much heavier than today’s modern hippos weighing up to four tonnes. The ancient hippos had prominent eyes that acted as periscopes when under water. It is likely the hippos discovered died through natural causes and their bones show evidence of having being gnawed by hyenas.
The site is approximately 15 kilometres from Norfolk’s present-day coast and insect fossils indicate the summer temperature at that time was 2-3°c warmer than today.”
The media who like to [think] they are sceptical, in fact swallow this hook line and sinker. In fact they accept it in full, while they do expose stories on dodgy builders. The big story is facing them and they refuse to see it.
Could someone please plot the GISS Global Temperature Anomalies with Error Bars graph with the actual temperature? Use the scale of a home thermostat, that will demonstrate, to any sane viewer, just how small the difference are each year. (I can’t do it at the moment.) Thanks
Actually, it is this article that is dishonest, starting from the first quote. Due to other values within recent years that are within the margin of error, 38% is the statistical probability of 2014 being the hottest year on record, which is higher than the probability for any other year. This blog is exploiting scientific ignorance by pretending that “only” 38% somehow makes the conclusions of every major scientific organization invalid.
I didn’t read the rest of the quotes; the first one is a lie, so.
It’s turtles, all the way sideways…
76 Trombones led the big parade…..
“Global temperatures will resume their long term growth trend within five to 10 years ending the so called pause in global warming, a leading climate scientist has predicted.”
What ‘Leading Climate Scientist’ said this? No one in the climate industry predicted this pause. So what skill do they have to predict that the pause will last for 5 to 10 more years and then continue warming?
Sounds to me like they’re just guessing.
Is there a chance that a La Nina event could happen this year? And if so….would this drive down any temp rise that occurred last year?
My Dad, a retired engineer, saw a few graphs on the news and became alarmed. I rescaled the y-axis to our typical change in Nova Scotia, Canada i.e. from -30C to +30C which turned it into a flat line, and he said “all that is about this? This is nothing”. Exactly right.
The problem remains : the error bars are plotted on a different scale, and not shown as they usually are (i.e. half above, half below the reported figure).
What is it that causes “progressives” here in America to lie so frequently and so effortlessly.
Hottest year on record
You can keep your doctor
You can keep your plan
A video caused the attack
There is not a smidgen of corruption in the IRS
Maybe it’s something in the diet?
François, agreed. If plotted properly one should be able to extract more information.
There may be a reason for the error bars not being ‘centered’ on the nominal figure – if so, it deserves an explanation.
Let’s see. There’s a 38 percent chance that a measurement of 2/100s of one degree of warming is an accurate measurement, making 2014 the hottest year on record. Sure. The more ridiculous these claims become, the more desperate the alarmists appear. I’ve talked to quite a few people who don’t even follow this issue who recognize how absurd it all is. The alarmists are losing to Mother Nature and time.
I’m not sure that ‘error bars’ on these graphs are going to add much ‘honesty’. From the one of ‘climategate’ emails comes a warning….
2014 was the most dishonest decade on record and the previous ten years was the most dishonest decade on record. And so it goes with the biggest fraud in human history.
However, Mendacity Central, (ClimateCentral.org) seems to have found reality?
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-downgrades-climate-impact-of-fossil-fuel-burning-18553
Or not? 🙂