Climate Craziness of the Week – AGW could trigger plants and soil in tipping point attack

Yes, somehow, more plants growing due to increased CO2 will cause more carbon dioxide in a vicious cycle. Notice three things about this study: 1. The word “could” 2. “modeling work”. 3. Lack of any paleo reference to such an event in Earth’s past during higher periods of CO2.

Attack_of_the_monster_plantsFrom Princeton: Dirty pool: Soil’s large carbon stores could be freed by increased CO2, plant growth

An increase in human-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could initiate a chain reaction between plants and microorganisms that would unsettle one of the largest carbon reservoirs on the planet — soil.

Researchers based at Princeton University report in the journal Nature Climate Change that the carbon in soil — which contains twice the amount of carbon in all plants and Earth’s atmosphere combined — could become increasingly volatile as people add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, largely because of increased plant growth. The researchers developed the first computer model to show at a global scale the complex interaction between carbon, plants and soil, which includes numerous bacteria, fungi, minerals and carbon compounds that respond in complex ways to temperature, moisture and the carbon that plants contribute to soil.

Although a greenhouse gas and pollutant, carbon dioxide also supports plant growth. As trees and other vegetation flourish in a carbon dioxide-rich future, their roots could stimulate microbial activity in soil that in turn accelerates the decomposition of soil carbon and its release into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, the researchers found.

This effect counters current key projections regarding Earth’s future carbon cycle, particularly that greater plant growth could offset carbon dioxide emissions as flora take up more of the gas, said first author Benjamin Sulman, who conducted the modeling work as a postdoctoral researcher at the Princeton Environmental Institute.

“You should not count on getting more carbon storage in the soil just because tree growth is increasing,” said Sulman, who is now a postdoctoral researcher at Indiana University.

On the other hand, microbial activity initiated by root growth could lock carbon onto mineral particles and protect it from decomposition, which would increase long-term storage of carbon in soils, the researchers report.

Whether carbon emissions from soil rise or fall, the researchers’ model depicts an intricate soil-carbon system that contrasts starkly with existing models that portray soil as a simple carbon repository, Sulman said. An oversimplified perception of the soil carbon cycle has left scientists with a glaring uncertainty as to whether soil would help mitigate future carbon dioxide levels — or make them worse, Sulman said.

“The goal was to take that very simple model and add some of the most important missing processes,” Sulman said. “The main interactions between roots and soil are important and shouldn’t be ignored. Root growth and activity are such important drivers of what goes on in the soil, and knowing what the roots are doing could be an important part of understanding what the soil will be doing.”

The researchers’ soil-carbon cycle model has been integrated into the global land model used for climate simulations by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) located on Princeton’s Forrestal Campus.

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Benjamin N. Sulman, Richard P. Phillips, A. Christopher Oishi, Elena Shevliakova, and Stephen W. Pacala. 2014. Microbe-driven turnover offsets mineral-mediated storage of soil carbon under elevated CO2. Nature Climate Change. Article published in December 2014 print edition. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2436

The work was supported by grants from NOAA (grant no. NA08OAR4320752); the U.S. Department of Agriculture (grant no. 2011-67003-30373); and Princeton’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative sponsored by BP.

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December 27, 2014 7:52 am

I read this via Yahooey’s prominent announcement; rubbish in so many ways.
I do hope that faux research claims follow these researchers throughout their careers.

December 27, 2014 7:54 am

Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
Remind be never to send and of my grand kids to Princeton!

Rex knight
December 27, 2014 7:55 am

Oh my, what a waste of funds

December 27, 2014 7:56 am
Jimbo
Reply to  phillipbratby
December 27, 2014 11:32 am

Why do some terrible people add carbon to the soil? We must end this practice otherwise we are doomed.
“What Is Biochar?”
http://www.biochar-international.org/biochar

Reply to  Jimbo
December 27, 2014 7:46 pm

Christ(mas) Tur(k)ney from the Antarctic Summer Party has invented an method to make biochar out of wood waste in a big micro wave oven.
It’s called “green coke”.
http://carbonscape.com/
http://www.rexresearch.com/carbonscape/carbonscape.htm

Jimbo
Reply to  phillipbratby
December 27, 2014 11:41 am

Now what’s this?

Abstract – July 1998
Biology and Fertility of Soils
Mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by increased carbon sequestration in the soil
…..Evidence ex-ists, however, that plant growth and soil C sequestra-tion are increasing due to the so-called physiological CO2 fertilization effect, associated with increased atmo-spheric CO2 levels….
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s003740050425#page-1
Volume 27, Issue 3, pp 230-235

Paul mackey
Reply to  phillipbratby
December 29, 2014 1:30 am

Actually they do a great job of rubbishing it themselves
“Although a greenhouse gas and pollutant, carbon dioxide also supports plant growth”

chris y
December 27, 2014 7:57 am

This is interesting-
“The work was supported by grants from NOAA… and Princeton’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative sponsored by BP.”
BP. As in British Petroleum.
🙂

Jimbo
Reply to  chris y
December 28, 2014 2:21 am

Not only ‘Princeton’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative’ sponsored by British Petroleum it are also sponsored by Ford Motor Company. Fossil fuel sponsorship is not that unusual for carbon mitigation schemes.
http://cmi.princeton.edu/about/sponsors.php
Big oil has been on the global warming bandwagon for some time now.

Skeptical Science – 26 October 2012
…..In the late 1990s, the oil industry’s response to the climate question started to change, when BP and Shell decided to abandon the GCC and instead embrace the scientific consensus….
…..Perhaps surprisingly, many oil companies support a carbon tax. In some cases this may be companies seeking a way to favour gas production over more carbon-intensive coal, but some oil sands companies support a carbon tax as well. The reason for this is because corporations are very keen to reduce uncertainty, especially when it comes to long-term capital intensive projects. They would prefer to know the rules now and then decide what to invest in, rather than invest now and discover later that their project is no longer economic due to taxation changes….
http://www.skepticalscience.com/bigoil.html

Mike Macray
Reply to  chris y
December 29, 2014 8:00 am

“BP. As in British Petroleum.”
Not any more! Now it’s Beyond Petroleum…sic!

Greg Strebel
December 27, 2014 7:59 am

Aaahh, we now have two-handed soil researchers in addition to two handed economists: “One the other hand, microbial activity initiated by root growth could lock carbon onto mineral particles and protect it from decomposition, which would increase long-term storage of carbon in soils”.
Which hand gets emphasized is a strong indication of the predisposition of the reporter/media organ.

Bryan A
Reply to  Greg Strebel
December 27, 2014 8:50 am

“Are you scared, are you scared? Well you shouldn’t be!!! You’re on Scare Tactics”……

DonK31
December 27, 2014 8:00 am

Might make things worse…might make things better. But what matters is that things COULD change. To paraphrase FDR; the only thing we have to fear is change itself.

Mark Nutley
December 27, 2014 8:00 am

I got as far as “Although a greenhouse gas and pollutant” ans stopped reading, CO2 is not a fecking pollutant. And it is not fecking “carbon” either, these people ought to be thought the correct terms before publishing their tripe.

Jimbo
Reply to  Mark Nutley
December 27, 2014 11:51 am

Didn’t we get news this year that global agricultural output is a record levels? Funny that.
Here are some of the effects of co2 pollution. We must reduce these effects for the good of our greening biosphere. You know it makes sense so let’s act now!

Abstract – 28 June 2013
Randall J. Donohue et al
Impact of CO2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe’s warm, arid environments
Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the “CO2 fertilization” effect—the enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levels—is yet to be established. The direct CO2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 (1982–2010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process.
Geophysical Research Letters – Volume 40, Issue 12, pages 3031–3035
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/abstract
_____________________________
Abstract – May 2013
A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset
Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in pasture productivity over the last 30 years.
http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/5/5/2492
_____________________________
Abstract – 10 April 2013
Analysis of trends in fused AVHRR and MODIS NDVI data for 1982–2006: Indication for a CO2 fertilization effect in global vegetation
…..The effect of climate variations and CO2 fertilization on the land CO2 sink, as manifested in the RVI, is explored with the Carnegie Ames Stanford Assimilation (CASA) model. Climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO2 fertilization each explain approximately 40% of the observed global trend in NDVI for 1982–2006……
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gbc.20027/abstract
_____________________________
Abstract – May 2013
The causes, effects and challenges of Sahelian droughts: a critical review
…….However, this study hypothesizes that the increase in CO2 might be responsible for the increase in greening and rainfall observed. This can be explained by an increased aerial fertilization effect of CO2 that triggers plant productivity and water management efficiency through reduced transpiration. Also, the increase greening can be attributed to rural–urban migration which reduces the pressure of the population on the land…….
doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0473-z
_____________________________
Abstract – 19 March 2014
Martin Brandt et al
Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010)
…..Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits……
Remote Sensing 6, pp. 2408-2434
DOI:10.3390/rs6032408
_____________________________
Abstract – 2014
Forest stand growth dynamics in Central Europe have accelerated since 1870,
Forest ecosystems have been exposed to climate change for more than 100 years, whereas the consequences on forest growth remain elusive. Based on the oldest existing experimental forest plots in Central Europe, we show that, currently, the dominant tree species Norway spruce and European beech exhibit significantly faster tree growth (+32 to 77%), stand volume growth (+10 to 30%) and standing stock accumulation (+6 to 7%) than in 1960. Stands still follow similar general allometric rules, but proceed more rapidly through usual trajectories. As forest stands develop faster, tree numbers are currently 17–20% lower than in past same-aged stands. Self-thinning lines remain constant, while growth rates increase indicating the stock of resources have not changed, while growth velocity and turnover have altered. Statistical analyses of the experimental plots, and application of an ecophysiological model, suggest that mainly the rise in temperature and extended growing seasons contribute to increased growth acceleration, particularly on fertile sites.
Nat. Commun. 5:4967, DOI:10.1038/ncomms5967
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140912/ncomms5967/full/ncomms5967.html

Doug S
December 27, 2014 8:07 am

It has occurred to me lately that one of the very strong potential drivers of the “climate” movement comes from nations and organizations that are trying to prop up national economies that are dependent on expensive oil. I think it’s entirely possible that money and pressure from Russia, Venezuela and other nations whose economic survival depend on $100/bbl oil have been pushing this AGW meme through their sycophants in the United Nations. Here at home our own progressive sympathizers picked up on the false narrative and became unwitting participants in the false narrative.

Kitefreak
December 27, 2014 8:08 am

The begonia’s gonna get me!
For goodness sake, why not just admit CO2 is good for the planet and we humans. More food, more organisms, more life. What is there not to like?
These people need to get real flaming jobs.

Fraizer
Reply to  Kitefreak
December 27, 2014 9:15 am

Day of the Triffids

High Treason
Reply to  Fraizer
December 27, 2014 1:04 pm

My thoughts exactly. The authors have stolen the idea from fiction to pretend it is reality on the assumption that truth is stranger than fiction. As for all the weasel words, I thought academic articles generally have a conclusion as part of normal scientific publication unless it is observations of some unusual medical case. Perhaps the sort of valuable research that should be undertaken is research on the climate researchers and their funders- investigate their personal ethics, look for underlying paranoid traits, look for patterns consistent with habitual liars, look for genuine leadership and ability to think independently.

RobertBobbert GDQ
Reply to  Fraizer
December 27, 2014 6:44 pm

Fraizer
After Albert Gore and An Inconvenient Load of Crapola most CAGW devotees rank ‘The Day Of The Triffids’ as the second best documentary EVAH. I am pretty sure that there is exceptional and peer reviewed literature, just like this study has, to support my documentary theory.
In the case of this earth shattering research it is not so much as “do not look at the green comet fireworks in the sky or go blind, as in the Triffids, but DO NOT LOOK AT THE SOIL It is VOLATILE and all the minerals,fungi, bacteria and carbon compounds are gonna unite, sorta like The Power Rangers Arch Enemies do, and they are gonna come get us and all our kids and their kids and their kids too. And the penguins and pandas and polar bears and parrots and parakeets and possums too.
And the Puppies and The Pussycats. Thank you Naomi.
So this really really terrible thing is sorta ..maybe.. might be.. likely.. you never know but it could.happen.. but then again it might not… let us repeat … then again it might not… so lets get out the grant forms and find the next …NGO or fossil fuel sucker …with deep concerns about the health of the planet and deeper pockets full of greenbacks and euros.
Makes you proud to be a BP customer.
CLIMATE SCIENCE ACADEMIA ROOLZ BABY!!!!!

Editor
Reply to  Kitefreak
December 27, 2014 12:21 pm

Another possible large benefit of CO2 would be, if proven, warming of the planet.

whiten
December 27, 2014 8:08 am

The problem highlighted here seems to be the CO2 emissions not the AGW.
I can’t make the conection, literally I do fail, as per this kind of study.
You see AGW is not the cause of CO2 emissions, the other way around is what supposes to be the hypothesis.
Can someone explain it to me, please, how this study or paper can be associated with the AGW hypothesis…really I do fail to make that conection….unless if AGW not disputed anymore and accepted by default as a fact or a 97% consensus amongst all concerned!!!
cheers

Kitefreak
Reply to  whiten
December 27, 2014 8:41 am

Seeing CO2 emissions as a problem is the problem! 18 years with no global warming and CO2 going up quite robustly (in percentage of the atmosphere terms – like from 0.030% to 0.04%) kind of blows the whole hypothesis out of the water, surely to ?
The fact that the general population is brainwashed enough to believe all this BS is the problem. In my view it is an absolutely HUGE problem which will lead to MASSIVE problems down the road, when we will all wish all we had to worry about was “global warming”.
Maybe I missed your /sarc tag but I’m british and I grew up on sarcasm…

whiten
Reply to  Kitefreak
December 27, 2014 9:32 am

I am not sure what exactly you mean or what the main point of your reply to me is.
I was not sarcastic with my above comment.
I was not criticizing the study in question, simply trying to understand how someone can associate it with AGW.
In principle it seems like it can not be associated…….unless in the case when it must be evaluated and judged through the perception that it is as wrong as the AGW.
I do not think that to be a fair and a good aproach, if that is the case.
cheers

Dr. Bob
December 27, 2014 8:27 am

When environmental studies (Life Cycle Assessments or LCA) are done on Energy Crops such as mixed prairie grass, or switchgrass, one of the biggest benefits for carbon sequestration is addition of root matter to the soil which increases carbon storage. This storage of carbon in the soil is supposed to save us from climate change. But how can they now say that this a negative issue when the argument was that it was beneficial? It seems that this is another example of weather weirding. Increased CO2 causes both colder and warmer weather. That way, any outcome is explained by evil CO2.

Reply to  Dr. Bob
December 27, 2014 7:47 pm

Bob
They can say anything they like with a model. Nothing certain ok. Just a model.
I can come up with a model that will show cooling with increased CO2, it is just that as there is no funding for that sort of modeling it stops me from doing it.
Additional man made CO2 does not cause additional man made warming. End of story

Mike M.
December 27, 2014 8:36 am

Craziness indeed. According to IPCC, about 30% of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted has been taken up by terrestrial sinks: soil, plant litter, and living plants. So does this model agree with that observation, with the opposite only occurring at higher CO2? I could not tell from the abstract and the article is pay-walled.

r murphy
December 27, 2014 8:41 am

” although a greenhouse gas and pollutant” end of story for me.

Reply to  r murphy
December 27, 2014 10:10 am

this one did it for me – “leaving scientists with a glaring uncertainty “- Classic Ivy League

Dawtgtomis
Reply to  Bubba Cow
December 27, 2014 12:20 pm

You have to polish one a while before it will actually glare…

higley7
December 27, 2014 8:42 am

“could become increasingly volatile as people add more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere”
We are resposible for such small fraction of the annual CO2 budget, it’s a joke and it’s effects cannot be detected, let alone quantified.
“The researchers developed the first computer model to show at a global scale the complex interaction between carbon, plants and soil, which includes numerous bacteria, fungi, minerals and carbon compounds, . . .”
MODELS ARE NOT SCIENCE. And, yeah, like they know how to do this. Highly unlikely that they know even half the interactions, let alone cover all the variables. But, it does not a matter to them as long as they cobble it until it shows something bad will happen. Once they get there, they quit and publish.

Jimbo
Reply to  higley7
December 27, 2014 12:10 pm

Here is man’s co2 airborne fraction. It’s been decreasing for some unknown reason. Maybe their model will soon get to the bottom of the matter. 😊
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2013-03-31-ScreenShot20130331at4.19.41PM.png

Latitude
December 27, 2014 8:43 am

……….plant a tree

u.k.(us)
Reply to  Latitude
December 27, 2014 10:54 am

You don’t even have to, they plant themselves, they’ve been doing it (apparently on the sly).
Gotta watch out for those sneaky plants 🙂

Another Ian
Reply to  u.k.(us)
December 27, 2014 12:37 pm

“They plant themselves”. Not news to anyone having to deal with the problem of woody plant thickening in rangelands!

Another Ian
Reply to  u.k.(us)
December 27, 2014 12:39 pm

Another of those studies “drawing more long bows than there were at bloody Agincourt” IMO

December 27, 2014 8:44 am

I remember from the early ‘oughts a number of scare stories about “super poison ivy” due driven by global warming.

higley7
December 27, 2014 8:45 am

“The researchers’ soil-carbon cycle model has been integrated into the global land model used for climate simulations” by NOAA et al.
Ah. Now we know the study is taxpayer-funded animal droppings.

Zeke
December 27, 2014 8:57 am

“Although a greenhouse gas and pollutant, carbon dioxide also supports plant growth. As trees and other vegetation flourish in a carbon dioxide-rich future, their roots could stimulate microbial activity in soil that in turn accelerates the decomposition of soil carbon and its release into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, the researchers found.”
“This effect counters current key projections regarding Earth’s future carbon cycle, particularly that greater plant growth could offset carbon dioxide emissions as flora take up more of the gas, said first author Benjamin Sulman….”
More threats to life on earth from life on earth.

Jimbo
Reply to  Zeke
December 27, 2014 12:01 pm

Here is what happened in tropical rain forests at a time of much higher co2. We are not even halfway there yet. Can you see the chain reaction?

Abstract
Carlos Jaramillo et. al – Science – 12 November 2010
Effects of Rapid Global Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary on Neotropical Vegetation
Temperatures in tropical regions are estimated to have increased by 3° to 5°C, compared with Late Paleocene values, during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56.3 million years ago) event. We investigated the tropical forest response to this rapid warming by evaluating the palynological record of three stratigraphic sections in eastern Colombia and western Venezuela. We observed a rapid and distinct increase in plant diversity and origination rates, with a set of new taxa, mostly angiosperms, added to the existing stock of low-diversity Paleocene flora. There is no evidence for enhanced aridity in the northern Neotropics. The tropical rainforest was able to persist under elevated temperatures and high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, in contrast to speculations that tropical ecosystems were severely compromised by heat stress.
doi: 10.1126/science.1193833
—————-
Abstract
Carlos Jaramillo & Andrés Cárdenas – Annual Reviews – May 2013
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Global Warming and Neotropical Rainforests: A Historical Perspective
There is concern over the future of the tropical rainforest (TRF) in the face of global warming. Will TRFs collapse? The fossil record can inform us about that. Our compilation of 5,998 empirical estimates of temperature over the past 120 Ma indicates that tropics have warmed as much as 7°C during both the mid-Cretaceous and the Paleogene. We analyzed the paleobotanical record of South America during the Paleogene and found that the TRF did not expand toward temperate latitudes during global warm events, even though temperatures were appropriate for doing so, suggesting that solar insolation can be a constraint on the distribution of the tropical biome. Rather, a novel biome, adapted to temperate latitudes with warm winters, developed south of the tropical zone. The TRF did not collapse during past warmings; on the contrary, its diversity increased. The increase in temperature seems to be a major driver in promoting diversity.
doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105403

I will not lose any sleep over the modelled study. Observations are king.

Zeke
Reply to  Jimbo
December 27, 2014 11:37 pm

You know you are a national resource! (:
AS for soil microbes and decomposers, since the sustainability paradigm requires eliminating N, K, and P in chemical forms, then fertilizing fields with decomposed matter would be generating a lot of co2. Of course, there would never ever be enough – plus it would have to be shipped in unbelievably large quantities in trucks, instead of in neat little tanks.

PeterK
December 27, 2014 9:01 am

When all this nonsense about CO2 being a pollutant finally comes to an end (hopefully in the next year or so), what will become of all of these useless and stupid studies? I do hope that a repository is created where all of the junk science of global warming is housed, so that future real scientists can go look at these papers and laugh at the ‘climate scientists’ of the time. Hopefully the current batch of ‘climate scientists will not be let off the hook and for as long as they live, they can be held up as an example of what goofiness they wrote.
Here is another stupid study I came across recently: (more modeling)
“Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission” by Katharine L Ricke and Ken Caldeira.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/12/124002/article

Reply to  PeterK
December 28, 2014 2:18 am

Off the hook? I fear we will not even get them on it. Look at Paul Ehrlich as an example.

December 27, 2014 9:04 am

I hypothesize that AGW will bring about Peace on Earth. Think I could get a nice cushy grant to study this?

kevin kilty
December 27, 2014 9:04 am

I don’t find research like this a waste of time or taxpayer money unless we allow it to become the careers, the reason for existence, of a perpetual research group. One often finds that things are a bit more complicated than the first cut or simplified models suggest. However, the telling point here is that these suggested outcomes have never before been observed. Why do so many researchers ignore the enormous ensemble of natural experiments? They provide a sanity check to ideas that are credible as opposed to merely possible.

JimS
December 27, 2014 9:14 am

The division between science and science fiction has finally been breached, and it took public funding to achieve the goal.

Sweet Old Bob
December 27, 2014 9:15 am

More nonsense from those in the flock . Desperation ?
The flockers can’t see how stupid their claims have become.
Maybe they need new shepherds ? ….

Jeff Alberts
December 27, 2014 9:18 am

“Whether carbon emissions from soil rise or fall, the researchers’ model depicts an intricate soil-carbon system that contrasts starkly with existing models that portray soil as a simple carbon repository, Sulman said.”

So their model is right, the others are wrong. Surely they’ve done extensive, decades-long calibration (real-time, not model-time) of their model, right?

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