From the Spirit of Mawson “ship of fools” University of New South Wales –
Climate detectives reveal handprint of human caused climate change in Australia
Australia’s hottest year on record was almost impossible without man-made climate change
Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 along with the accompanying droughts, heat waves and record-breaking seasons of that year was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming.
New research from ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) researchers and colleagues, over five different Australian papers in a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has highlighted the powerful influence of global warming on Australia’s climate.
“We often talk about the fingerprint of human-caused climate change when we look at extreme weather patterns,” said Prof David Karoly, an ARCCSS researcher with the University of Melbourne.
“This research across four different papers goes well beyond that. If we were climate detectives then Australia’s hottest year on record in 2013 wasn’t just a smudged fingerprint at the scene of the crime, it was a clear and unequivocal handprint showing the impact of human caused global warming.”
In 2013, heat records fell like dominoes. Australia had its hottest day on record, its hottest month on record, its hottest summer on record, its hottest spring on record and then rounded it off with the hottest year on record.
According to the research papers presented in BAMS, the impact of climate change significantly increased the chances of record heat events in 2013. Looking back over the observational record the researchers found global warming over Australia (see attached graphic): doubled the chance of the most intense heat waves, tripled the likelihood of heatwave events, made extreme summer temperature across Australia five time more likely increased the chance of hot dry drought-like conditions seven times made hot spring temperatures across Australia 30 times more likely.
But perhaps most importantly, it showed the record hot year of 2013 across Australia was virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused global warming. At its most conservative, the science showed the heat of 2013 was made 2000 times more likely by global warming.
“When it comes to what helped cause our hottest year on record, human-caused climate change is no longer a prime suspect, it is the guilty party,” said ARCCSS Australian National University researcher Dr Sophie Lewis.
“Too often we talk about climate change impacts as if they are far in the future. This research shows they are here, now.”
The extreme year of 2013 is just the latest peak in a trend over the observational record that has seen increasing bushfire days, the record-breaking warming of oceans around Australia, the movement of tropical species into temperate zones and the shifting of rain bearing storm tracks further south and away from some of our most important agricultural zones.
“The most striking aspect of the extreme heat of 2013 and its impacts is that this is only at the very beginning of the time when we are expected to experience the first impacts of human-caused climate change,” said Dr Sarah Perkins an ARCCSS researcher with the University of New South Wales.
“If we continue to put carbon into our atmosphere at the currently accelerating rate, years like 2013 will quickly be considered normal and the impacts of future extremes will be well beyond anything modern society has experienced.”
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And from the AP:
“Studies fault warming in much of 2013 wild weather”
Scientists looking at 16 cases of wild weather around the world last year see the fingerprints of man-made global warming on more than half of them.
http://www.sfgate.com/news/science/article/Studies-fault-warming-in-much-of-2013-wild-weather-5787837.php
If only M. Night Shyamalan could grab on to this climate stuff, he might revive his career…….”I See Global Warming”
Meanwhile, across the Great Southern Ocean, a continent stretches its icy tentacles northward.
It’s the planet arseprint.
There is something that leaves a print on the sand when you sit, and it has two hemispheres, like Earth. Maybe it is a more accurate image, just saying.
Wouldn’t have been possible without removing a lot of historical records, either
Or that the fact that the “reliable “historical record in Australia more or less starts in 1910. So when folks like the BOM manipulate it and other claim New Records with it, it actually is not saying much…
This sentence in the original article gives the game away: “The record-breaking temperatures experienced in Australia fall entirely outside the bounds of natural climate variability estimated using a suite of state-of-the-art climate models.” So they’re still in garbage-in-garbage-out mode.
early AM ABC radio
falling over emselves to get it to air
Korolly the Bast*rd, in full smug mode.
put me off food for a while
and yeah models
AND theyre using ONLY 10 15 yrs prior
cos if they used the 30s they look the cretins and liars they are!
They know that Australia is really heating up. They used the BOM to do all their temperature homoginizations and adjustments until their figures were juussstt right.
sarc off
That makes it “man-made”, right?
Here in the upper hemisphere we call it “Mann-made”
Ever since the ACORN data set was introduced in early 2012, Australia has had records set for a day, month, season and year. When you reduce hundreds of stations down to just 112 and homogenize those temperatures, you can make up anything.
To paraphrase an old ecomic quote;
If you torture the figures, they’ll confess to anything.
Key word “virtually”.
That means GCMs at work
I agree it is definitely man-made climate change as in changing the temperature records to make it warmer when in fact it is getting cooler.
So, a colder than normal year is weather but a warmer than normal year is climate; got it.
Or, as I was informed a few days ago by a True Believer:
“No true scientist attributes any one weather event to climate change. However, all climate events are worse because of fossil fuels”.
And they don’t understand why it’s difficult to take any of this seriously…
Seems to me that the sum of a string of zeroes should equal zero. But that’s in the real world.
It’s not even a case of warmer weather / climate. It’s outright fabrication. The hottest evah summer: 2012-13 was a cold, wet summer in which SYD rarely touched 30C, interspersed by 2 hot days a week apart. Most of the time it was cool and drizzly.
For all the UHI, even the hot day (only a record at Observatory Hill, not elsewhere) was only 0.16C higher than 1970 and the rest of the country couldn’t manage even a recent record.
That was what passed as a blazing summer. During the “unprecedented heat wave” stories, we had 5 days that peaked at 29.5C!
These people know they won’t be called on BS so they just make it up entirely and if someone does notice they scream “Abbott666 / Murdoch666 is a denier!”
It’s the same as NASA’s “hottest August evah” announcement. Have a look at 1998 on a chart of any temp set. The RSS fell sharply this August! Doesn’t make any difference.
Here’s some inconvenient facts Andrew
Sydney in summer 2012-13: A warm summer with a wet end
Sydney Observatory Hill recorded an average maximum temperature of 26.6 °C during summer, 1.0 °C above the historical average, with above average maximum temperatures throughout the city.
Days were generally warmer than average during the first half of summer, including temperatures 1.8 °C above normal during January, but closer to average during February when rainfall was higher.
There were 8 days when temperatures reached at least 30 °C, average for Sydney, but 25 days that reached at least 28 °C (average 16). In western Sydney, Richmond recorded 18 days greater than 35 °C, the most since 2005.
The warmest period was during the first half of January, when a large scale heatwave impacted much of Australia, described in Special Climate Statement 43. Temperatures reached 42.3 °C at Sydney Observatory Hill on the 8th, its fifth highest temperature on record, before setting a new record maximum temperature of 45.8 °C on the 18th.
Fourteen stations across the city reached at least 45 °C on this day, with the coolest (Terrey Hills) recording 43.9 °C and the warmest (Penrith) 46.5 °C; all seven stations with long-term records were at least 0.5 °C warmer than the previous record.
Minimum temperatures were also above average across the city, with 19.6 °C at Sydney Observatory Hill, 1.2 °C above the historical average. Minimums were well above average throughout the season, with 45 nights above 20 °C (average 21) and only four of 15 °C or below (average 7).
The mean daily temperature at Sydney Observatory Hill was consequently 23.1 °C, 1.1 °C above the historical average
Some sites had their highest summer temperature on record.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/nsw/archive/201302.sydney.shtml
I see your problem, Martin … you’ve referenced BoM … you might as well have referenced Tim Flannery for all of the tattered remains of a scientific reputation that the BoM retains.
Some sites Martin? How odd, I thought they were talking about climate change. You know, something about where the climate affects everyone worldwide, not some odd spots of weather.
Not just a ‘few sites’ where BOM adjusted, maladjusted and basically had the temperatures every which way an alarmist likes.
Not forgetting that someone named Karoly is involved; have they done any honest research lately?
Also not forgetting that most of the folks involved have been seeing fingerprints of mankind in the changing climate for over twenty years now.
What’s their research?
“Oh, it’s hot outside!” says the researcher inside their air conditioned offices.
“It must be because of mankind!” their co-worker adds.
“I must call the head office.” replies the first researcher. Mankind has caused all of Antarctica’s heat to stop in Australia…
Oh yeah, some heavy duty research there.
I’ll care about global warming as an issue when dicaprio rides a bike to work and begins living in a solar powered appartment.
and after he’s sold that rather large boat with the 5000 gallon fuel tank…..
If increased pCO2 what dunnit, why all the Southern Ocean ice sheet growth?
The Antarctic ice sheet growth is caused by global warming.
Any reduction (as projected by the IPCC) will also be caused by global warming.
A standstill will also have been caused by global warming.
Note that the hottest day on record isn’t like, you know, the hottest temperature on record. It’s an average. The day that turned forecast maps purple never happened.
Hottest day year since records began.
So when did the records begin
Typically when they make this kind of claim they are using the start of the satellite record (actually a year later since the first year was warmer) So “ever” here means a few decades only. It gives them a nice cooler starting point to base all their claims on. They also ignore any urban heat effects (they adjust up for these apparently) . The result is a fully manipulated figure and story that fits their desired results. Perfect anti-science.
They’re still being massaged.
Only handprint is the ACORN homogenization thumb on the temperature scale, and vandalism of the Australian historic temperature record where past temperatures are cooled and recent temperatures are “progressively” hyped by the activists at BOM and CSIRO trying to hide the fact that some world temperature records show warming stopped with no statistically significant rise for 17 plus years and others are showing a declining trend. Time Karoly and his fellow megaphone spruikers had a good look at the increasing Antarctic ice close up like the UNSW ship of fools activists who so recently got trapped by that very real and expanding sea ice.
Time for a full public scientific debate rather than propaganda sessions where they claim this nonsense is real, and helped in that cause by a gullible Australian Broadcasting Commission, that cannot fulfil its own charter to present alternative views by credible Australian Scientists.
It’s not the ones that are cooled at issue. It’s the entire 1800’s records that are just ignored, possibly because they exceed currently recorded temps.
Amazing. I lived through that year thinking it was much like any other, except a few doomsayers got detached from Government payouts. Would that more follow.
I am told that this year we are having “our warmest end to winter and a very warm start to spring”. My tulips are 3-4 weeks later in flowering, obviously they didn’t read the press release.
Just how ‘warm’ was 2013? Were any numbers given? As to your late blooming tulips, what caused the frost to kill part of the spring wheat crop in NSW? Are they getting desperate?
Falsely convicting people of a crime is a crime. And it is a crime far more premeditated and sinister in intent than what the Australians are being accused of, which is the following:
the harmless, neutral, and beneficial actions of growing food and cattle, traveling, using personal transportation, and heating water to generate electricity.
And using refrigeration and air conditioning.
What about running GCM simulations on supercomputers?
Lee, in computer programming they say….”GIGO”
That’s garbage in, garbage out. None of the models are accurate. And btw, they DO use supercomputers. Part of where the wasted billions are going…….
Lee,
Maybe they are conserving and using the same supercomputer for all five studies, and use hand pumped cave air to cool the towers?
“Australian heat wave: In running multiple global climate models, five separate studies all pointed toward human influence having a substantial increase in the likelihood and severity of the record temperatures.
New Zealand drought: Computer models show human-caused climate change caused conditions that were more favorable for drought.”
@ur momisugly Scott –
Yeah, the energy required for the exercise in mental (cyber?) masturbation that is running GCM simulations was kinda my point. 😉
So, the planet hasn’t warmed in 16+ years. And yet a record hot year locally (if we are to believe the adjusted data) indicates global warming as the cause?
I call bullshit.
Good call David.
I just wish the politicians handing over my taxes to these damned fraudsters, would make the same bloody call.
One did and he’s now Prime Minister.
But it appears, when comes to global warming that title comes with a “muzzle”.
I think I’m right in saying that temperature records have only been taken for just over 100 years. I think ‘hottest/coolest/wettest/whatever’ actually means NOTHING!
Meanwhile, in the US, cold records were falling by the bucket load, but that was just weather.
Found this
http://climatism.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/australia-uah-summers.jpg
Thanks, I’ll take a bow!
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Once again, difficulty replicating this chart. Although the shape of the graph looks right, the numbers are all different to the published UAH data. For instance, 2013 is showing less than 0.2, yet the UAH AUST data shows temperatures for the winter ended 2013 (Dec 2012 to Feb 2013) were 0.29, 1.38, and -0.31, which averages to 0.45: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
It looks as though, for some reason, the above chart isn’t using the normal UAH anomaly base period (1981-2010). Since everything is closer to the base line I’d guess it has used a shorter and more recent period, possibly the last 10 years?
Also, the trend line on the chart is flat. Yet according to UAH AUST, the trend in summer average temperatures between 1979 and 2013 is positive, at +0.07C/dec. Although this is slight, it still shows up clearly on a chart: http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=29vhria&s=8#.VCp3BhY0-3M
And this
http://climatism.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/uah-last-5-years-aust.png
Shhhh! You’re ruining the Narrative!
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Tried to replicate your chart without success then realised your data stops in April 2013, nearly a year and a half ago. So it’s not ‘the last 5 years’; not any more at least. In fact, your chart leaves out two thirds of the record warm year referred to in the title post!
It makes a big difference to the chart when you use the latest data. I’ve updated it with the 5 years (60 months) to end August 2014. As you can see, despite the big drop in August 2014, the trend over the *last 5 years* in UAH AUST is now positive, at +0.37 C/dec: http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=op37f6&s=8#.VCpJ0BY0-3M
You can update your records using the latest UAH values here: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
“found global warming over Australia” ????
Love it!
Weather is climate again? I thought that was all part of the settled science – weather is not climate as 97+% of scientists and even former Boeing engineer turned slapstick comedian Bill Nye will tell you. In any event there is nothing seen in the way of a trend in the palm print. Using this same presentation method and given the record breaking number of cold records this year one can show we’re headed for an ice age. Sounds like it would be a great cartoon from Josh.
Maybe someone should have a quiet talk with the administrative team at that uni and let them know they suck at climate studies. Or they could ask the student counsel who surely knows the truth of the quality of education they’re getting.
Only minute amounts of carbon is put into the atmosphere, and most of that by people living in abject energy poverty, burning dung, a perfectly renewable resource, to cook their meals. These scientists must mean carbon dioxide instead, but that’s as silly as referring to table salt by the token chlorine.
While we are at it, “we” do not even continue to put carbon dioxide into our atmosphere at an accelerating rate, the Chinese do. Carbon dioxide emissions are on the decline in the developed world.
At work I sometimes add NaCl to my lunch. But when I deal with the Cl2 part alone, I wear a respirator.
Amazing how combining one element with another can result in a relatively harmless compound.
(If they ban carbon, how will our kids take the SAT and get into college? The “lead” in Number 2 pencils is carbon, isn’t it? or will they just tax each answer? 😎
Given that they are also mostly water and carbon themselves, that could pose additional problems…
I like the idea of “sea salt” becoming “chlorine”
It’s a shame they didn’t have a sixth finger-
“Western Australia produced a record 17.2 million tonnes of winter crops like wheat, canola and barley in 2013-14, a 55 per cent increase on the previous year.
South Australian croppers also had a good winter overall, producing a total of 8.6 million tonnes for the harvest in summer, which is an increase of 31 per cent and the third highest production level on record for that state
those results are the biggest highlights in the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) crop report for February, which also shows that Australia’s total winter crop production increased 17 per cent in 2013, to 44 million tonnes.
Mr Pritchard said the new pea varieties had recovered remarkably well after the dry conditions in June and were on track for high yields.
“The new varieties of field peas, like PBA Wharton, PBA Twilight and PBA Gunyah are all expected to yield at least 1.8 tonnes per hectare, with some reports from around Esperance that crops could go as high as 2-2.5t/ha,” he said.
15 Nov 2013 – Australian canola production increased to record levels in 2012-13”
I think the six fingers thing is only in Queensland and Tasmania…
We say that about you Mexicans too….
In Tasmania, two heads are better than one.
Queensland … beautiful one day, perfect the next. We have to have something to discourage southerners coming up here and despoiling our State.
My handprint for them would require only one finger.
Guess which one 😉
This is a ‘handprint’ and not a ‘fingerprint’; these are virtually impossible to explain in any way except AGW. Hottest day, hottest month, hottest summer, hottest spring, and hottest year. Because these are independent random variables, is that what they’re saying? All of these things couldn’t possibly be due to chance because they constitute so many independent random variables?
Epic logic fail.
But they drew the handprint wrong; when playing with oneself, the hand should look more like a fist shouldn’t it?
Left hand image is shown, but – would the Aussies use the right hand, or the wrong hand, to play their games?
You would have to ask Chris Turney of UNSW – apparently he is a master at the five knuckle shuffle.
yawn … another hour, another alarmist report