From PhysicsWorld blog: The cover feature of the August issue of Physics World, which is now out in print and digital formats, looks at the Sun – and in particular, at the consequences here on Earth of a “solar super-storm”. As I point out in the video [below], these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines, knocking out satellites and disrupting telecommunications.
One particularly strong solar super-storm occured back in 1859 in what is known as the “Carrington event”, so named after the English astronomer who spotted a solar flare that accompanied it. The world in the mid-19th century was technologically a relatively unsophisticated place and the consequences were pretty benign. But should a storm of similiar strength occur today, the impact could be devastating to our way of life.
The feature has been written by Ashley Dale from the University of Bristol, who last year took part in a gathering of space experts to examine and report on the potential consequences of a solar super-storm here on Earth. I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
Reports:
SolarMAX_Executive summary Adobe Acrobat PDF
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SolarMAX_Final report.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF
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this is a frightening thought.
This is a subject of great interest to me. I remember asking Leif about the likelihood and consequences of another of these events and it seems certain that one will happen in the relatively near future and it’s consequences are potentially catastrophic.
In 1859 the only things affected were in effect telegraphs.now, everything in the modern world from petrol in the gas stations to banking to food distribution to water relies on electrics and computers.
Knock out either category and it would take only days or less for the developed world to unravel
Recently the uk government has belatedly set up a task force to ascertain damage to infrastructure of such an event and the consequences for the public. This task force is also looking at cyber terrorism.
I know Brandon has somewhat contrary views to mine so hopefully he will be along to articulate them
From my viewpoint we are dangerously exposed to either a natural or terrorist attack On our electrical infrstructure and there are few countries set up to cope fully with the consequences.
Forget climate change, this has the potential to create huge problems in a very short time scale
Tonyb
I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.
I think that is far too optimistic. Strong storms occur far more frequently, it is just matter of bad luck when they are directed at the Earth.
Recent ones:
March 13, 1989 – The Quebec Blackout Storm
July 15, 2001 – The Bastille Day Storm
October 29, 2003 – The Halloween Storm
Decentralized power sub-grids powered from decentralized generating sources (Read: Coal, oil, and wood pulp, supplemented by more-vulnerable solar & wind). Also, conservation, affordable home solar hot air (cold regions) and solar hot water heat-supplement systems, plus a little still too costly but helpful solarPV (for those few who can afford them). None of this can be meaningfully subsidized by government because that comes from already-overloaded taxpayers. Stop wasting money on global warming hoax so it may be used for real infrastructure challenges. IMHO, YMMV …
I hope it doesn’t happen. It would likely be a terrific loss of human life as the technology that keeps the modern world going would fail.
It’s like a rock-hit from space: a matter of when, not if.
Don’t be alarmists! The study isn’t. More worrying than AGW, but not catastrophic. Even with the current state of the US and UK grids, the major vulnerability point, very large transformers that would take a year or more to replace due to long lead times, could be disconnected prior to the arrival of the approaching CME and, thereby, protected from damage. This would mean a temporary power loss over very large areas, but would prevent catastrophic damage that would lead to a much, much longer outage. Unpreventable space asset losses (satellites) from a Carrington-level event would be around $2 billion according to the SolarMAX report.
“these violent events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field – potentially inducing damaging electrical currents in power lines”
Would a surge protector do any good in such an event?
Would electrical devices that are turned off or unplugged still be harmed?
Would it affect portable devices, such as phones or tablets?
From the paper: should be of particular interest to Dr.Svalgaard
Figure 2-9: Decade-averaged values of reconstructed solar total irradiance and northern hemisphere temperature anomalies from 1610 to the present (Lean, 2012).
– In addition to sunspots and solar irradiance, there are other space weather effects that may be related to climate fluctuation
– UV flux is doubled in solar maximum, increasing temperature in the stratosphere when compared with solar minimum
– Solar wind, characterized by the global magnetic index, has increased by 130% in the last century. The index used is the AA index, a measure of the disturbance level in the magnetic field of the Earth based on measurements from two stations, as summarized on the INGV website (2013)
– Formation of low clouds caused by variations in GCR particle flux
……..but our current understanding of this magnetic field—and how it interacts with that of the Earth—is inadequate.
“I don’t want to cause alarm, but as Dale points out, the Earth is, on average, in the path of Carrington-level events every 150 years – which means we are five years overdue.”
One just occurred in 2012, but, luckily, wasn’t directed at Earth:
http://www.space.com/25680-massive-solar-storm-near-miss-earth-averts-disaster-video.html
Satellites may not survive, people will survive.
Worse with melanoma with a decrease of ozone.
Therefore, no activity is worse for people.
Don’t go nuts but being prepared is not just for the Boy Scouts! What is it you need to survive short term if the power goes out? Air, water, food, warmth. Okay if the air is fried everything is toast anyway so it’s been nice knowing you. Water? Keep a couple of sealed containers. Food? A couple of 5 pound containers of whey (love the New Zealand stuff) will last a few months without refrigeration.
The basic thing is to work it into your lifestyle and not have a huge stash of stuff that goes bad when unused. I eat whey all the time so having 2 containers on the shelf is not unusual. I homebrew so I always have 2 or 3 empty secondaries filled with water and covered That gives me 40-60 litres or about 10-15 gallons. Empty on the grass in spring and fall and refill. Already taking up space so provides some water. 2 outages in 20 years of 1 day each. Everyone was freaking out and running to the store except me. Sat there with a few homebrew and shook my head.
From what I understand, we would normally have 3-4 days of lead time to prepare so much of the grid could be protected.
Sol busted out some X class flares as recently as June this year.
I mentioned this possibility a couple of days ago about the WUWT article “Capture the Sun & Power” but as J Orendorff said some prevention can be done
Would a surge protector do any good in such an event?
Would electrical devices that are turned off or unplugged still be harmed?
Would it affect portable devices, such as phones or tablets?
Simple rule – just unplug anything connected to outside lines to be safe, same as with lightning precautions. That includes land line phones. Portable devices not connected to power lines will not be negatively affected although I don’t know how prepared cell phone carrier systems are for this sort of thing. The cell towers might be damaged if they aren’t prepared.
However, if your power company has half a brain, they’ll have already cut off power to your home to protect their large transformers at power stations and substations. The only induced voltage you’d get in that case would be the DC voltage induced in the power line between the step-down transformer closest to you (on that power pole near your home) and your home. If your local, residential power lines are below ground as many are these days at least in the US, no problems at all.
There are conflicting views as to the severity of the danger, so it would be a service to get an objective analysis. The alarmist view is well represented at the Center for Security Policy website, while there have been numerous studies elsewhere tending to minimize the dangers. The cost of protecting large transformers with Faraday cages seems so minor that it’s hard to think of a significant objection coming from a risk/reward analysis.
my imagination may have run away with me on this one – go ahead, straighten me out, but…
I had the impression that a Carrington Event with the enthusiasm of the one in 1859 might fry Integrated Circuits unprotected by Faraday cages. This could mean no transportation by recent automobiles, no transport by current trucks (computer controlled diesel engines), no standby electricity (computer control diesel, again), problematic communication, possible total breakdown of supply chains of everything from water to food. And it could take a long time to get rolling again.
Assuming this isn’t nuts, it seemed to me far more reasonable to spend the money to protect critical parts of our transportation and infrastructure at a cost not likely to be insane than squander billions on the climate problem where we do not really have a good handle on the probable effects even after 20 years of alarmist rants on the subject.
With the lead time given, measures could be taken such as partial shutdowns that could be timed so to last only during the worst period
The danger seems to be mainly in unpreparedness and the fact that our fate is in the hands of the fumbling goofballs of government.
more soylent green! said:
August 1, 2014 at 1:33 pm
I hope it doesn’t happen. It would likely be a terrific loss of human life as the technology that keeps the modern world going would fail.
————
The sun is in competition with the warmunists!
It’s not necessarily true that you will get several days of lead time for such an event. Highly energetic CME’s associated with higher level X-class flares or, as in the reported 2012 case, several convergent CME’s traversing a swept-out region of space will have much faster forward propagation speeds. In the case of an extreme event pushing 1500-1600 km/sec, the warning time would be only a day.
– J Orendorff says:
August 1, 2014 at 1:46 pm
From what I understand, we would normally have 3-4 days of lead time to prepare so much of the grid could be protected.-
The one which missed earth in 2012 was going 3000 km/sec.
Distance Earth to Sun 149,600,000 km at 3000 km/sec is 13.8 hours.
It was caused by storm 4 days earlier which swept a path which was then followed two storms about 15 mins apart from each other.
So one could get heads up every time a storm hits earth, that a super storm may follow, so be on alert, but one only get a about 1/2 day of warning of the event itself.
J Orendorff says:
August 1, 2014 at 1:46 pm
From what I understand, we would normally have 3-4 days of lead time
For a very large event the lead time may only be about 12 hours.
No, the grid operators might not take precautions due to insurance coverage, guaranteed returns, and liability concerns from shutting down early. Most would look the other way as in the LA riots and pick up the pieces later with the expectation of compensatory payments and limited liability. That is why early security warning of a company’s credit card system does not lead to shutting down the card and purchasing as a precaution–see Target fiasco.
EMP is directional. Which means that if devices are oriented at random some where between 1/3rd and 2/3rds of all unshielded devices will be damaged.