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Has solar activity influence on the Earth’s global warming?
A recent study demonstrates the existence of significant resonance cycles and high correlations between solar activity and the Earth’s averaged surface temperature during centuries. This provides a new clue to reveal the phenomenon of global warming in recent years.
Their work, entitled “Periodicities of solar activity and the surface temperature variation of the Earth and their correlations” was published in CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN (In Chinese) 2014 No.14.
The co-corresponding authors are Dr. Zhao Xinhua and Dr. Feng Xueshang from State key laboratory of space weather, CSSAR/NSSC, Chinese Academy of Sciences. It adopts the wavelet analysis technique and cross correlation method to investigate the periodicities of solar activity and the Earth’s temperature as well as their correlations during the past centuries.
Global warming is one of the hottest and most debatable issues at present. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed that the release of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributed to 90% or even higher of the observed increase in the global average temperature in the past 50 years. However, the debate on the causes of the global warming never stops. Research shows that the current warming does not exceed the natural fluctuations of climate. The climate models of IPCC seem to underestimate the impact of natural factors on the climate change, while overstate that of human activities. Solar activity is an important ingredient of natural driving forces of climate. Therefore, it is valuable to investigate the influence of solar variability on the Earth’s climate change on long time scales.
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This study also implies that the “modern maximum” of solar activity agrees well with the recent global warming of the Earth. A significant correlation between them can be found (Figure 2).
As pointed out by a peer reviewer, “this work provides a possible explanation for the global warming”.
See the article:
ZHAO X H, FENG X S. Periodicities of solar activity and the surface temperature variation of the Earth and their correlations (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull (Chin Ver), 2014, 59: 1284, doi: 10.1360/972013-1089 http://csb.scichina.com:8080/kxtb/CN/abstract/abstract514043.shtml
Science China Press Co., Ltd. (SCP) is a scientific journal publishing company of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). For 60 years, SCP takes its mission to present to the world the best achievements by Chinese scientists on various fields of natural sciences researches.
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I wonder how long it will take before the powers that be to try and take this apart!
I thought Willis just debunked any 11-year cycle?
Except that there very likely was no Modern Grand Maximum [see e.g. slide 29 of]
http://www.leif.org/research/Confronting-Models-with-Reconstructions-and-Data.pdf
I believe Al Gore said “Bullshit” to this concept.
Duh… wait 1, 2, 3 LEIF!!!! LOL
I wonder how long it will take before the powers that be to try and take this apart!
It’s a scientific paper. We should all be trying to take it apart, same as any other paper.
A bit OT – The Portland, ME Press Herald has a headline article this AM. It states that Maine has been warming over the past 30 years at a higher rate than any other state bar one and that Climate Change is here! Is this just manipulation of data or what?? The article seems to be based on a reporter’s analysis of NOAA data plus a lot of anecdotal evidence. TRUE?? Is there a good counter to this?
The climate models of IPCC seem to underestimate the impact of natural factors on the climate change, while overstate that of human activities…..so more Chinese coal plants are fine
Mann-handling is imminent.
Beware of giving support to a study simply because it is in line with what you believe. I don’t have the credentials to check their science, so have to rely on their credibility. Given that China is leads the world in actual pollution, and not just co2, and all science is state funded, I’m not sure how much faith to put in this.
Am looking forward to reading letters from people who do have the ability to check the science.
wow, this paper isnt even bad.
As leif points out there is no modern solar max.
here is a clue guys. If you are working with solar data you had better be aware to the state of the science and the work that Leif and others are completing. Publishing anything that assumes a modern solar max, is just asking for trouble and embarassment.
Also, read the abstract to get some idea of the R^2 found and pay close attention:
基于太阳黑子历史数据、太阳总辐照（TSI）重构数据和实测地球表面平均温度数据（全球、陆地、海洋），利用小波分析和交叉相关分析等方法，考察了太阳活动和地表温度变化在数百年时间尺度上的周期性及相关性. 主要结果有：（1） 在所考察的时间范围内，太阳活动（包括黑子和太阳总辐照）存在4个置信度高于95%（白噪声）的主周期变化，分别为11 a周期、50 a周期、世纪周期和双世纪周期，全球温度存在64.3 a的主周期变化，接近太阳活动的50 a周期；（2） 太阳活动与全球温度变化具有22，50 a的显著共振周期；（3） 太阳活动与地表温度长期变化的相关性高于其短期变化的相关性，以黑子为例，它与地表温度年均值的相关系数为0.31~0.35，11 a滑动平均值相关系数为0.58~0.70，22 a滑动平均值相关系数为0.64~0.78，太阳总辐照与地表温度的相关性高于黑子与地表温度的相关性；（4） 太阳活动在近100年里有明显增强，它与全球温度（包括陆地、海洋）近百年的升温是一致的，太阳活动与海洋温度的相关性略高于太阳活动与陆地温度的相关性. 这些结果表明，太阳活动在百年时间尺度上对于地表温度的变化具有不可忽略的影响.
The Chinese “powers to be” are not the same as the American and EU ones. This is not the only such paper that points at the sun, published in the Chinese Science Bulletin. It is clear that the Chinese leadership wants to have an independent opinion on this, their own, and supports their scientists’ independent efforts. This also suggests that American and EU scientists, who have difficulties publishing their work, because it questions the dogma imposed by their colleagues, should look towards the Chinese Science Bulletin, also Japanese and Korean journals as an alternative publishing venue.
Except Leif says it’s wrong…
so more Chinese coal plants are fine
And fewer American coal plants are even better.
Steven Mosher,
So, you read Chinese? Give us an abstract! ☺
Best Steve Mosher drive by yet, done with a QBZ-95 I’d say 😉
@Gustav
That is quite correct.
And the Chinese burn the coal, their own and vast amounts of imports.
“this work provides a possible explanation for the global warming”.
Possible. That sounds like science. Not the rote meme of others that “the science is settled”.
Abstract, courtesy of Google translate:
Based on historical data of sunspots , the total solar irradiance (TSI) data reconstructed and measured the Earth’s average surface temperature data ( global , land, sea ) , using wavelet analysis and cross- correlation analysis method to study solar activity and changes in surface temperature periodic and correlation time scale for centuries the main results are: ( 1 ) within the study time frame , solar activity ( including sunspots and solar total irradiance ) the existence of four confidence level higher than 95% ( white noise ) of the main cycle , namely 11 a cycle , 50 a cycle , cycle century and double century cycle , the presence of 64.3 a global temperature change of the primary cycle , nearly 50 a cycle of solar activity ; ( 2 ) solar activity and global temperature change significantly with 22,50 a resonance cycle ; ( 3 ) solar activity and long-term changes in surface temperature above its short-term correlation between changes in correlation with sunspots , for example, it is the annual average surface temperature with a correlation coefficient of 0.31 ~ 0.35,11 a moving average correlation coefficient was 0.58 ~ 0.70,22 a sliding average of the correlation coefficient from 0.64 to 0.78 , the correlation of the total solar irradiance and surface temperature is higher than the correlation between sunspots and the surface temperature ; ( 4 ) sun Events in the last 100 years has significantly enhanced its global temperatures ( including land, sea ) in the past century warming is consistent, slightly higher than the correlation between solar activity and ocean temperature solar activity and terrestrial temperature correlation of these results indicate that solar activity on centennial timescales for surface temperature changes have a non-negligible impact.
If they disagree with Leif it’s whatever Leif says. They should have asked his permission to publish.
This is in agreement with my “dumbstuff” model of TSI v. Hadcrut from 1850-2013. It has an r-squared of .61 and explains what happened since 1998.
Google Translate of Mr Mosher’s post:
“Based on historical data of sunspots , the total solar irradiance (TSI) data reconstructed and measured the Earth’s average surface temperature data ( global , land, sea ) , using wavelet analysis and cross- correlation analysis method to study solar activity and changes in surface temperature periodic and correlation time scale for centuries the main results are: ( 1 ) within the study time frame , solar activity ( including sunspots and solar total irradiance ) the existence of four confidence level higher than 95% ( white noise ) of the main cycle , namely 11 a cycle , 50 a cycle , cycle century and double century cycle , the presence of 64.3 a global temperature change of the primary cycle , nearly 50 a cycle of solar activity ; ( 2 ) solar activity and global temperature change significantly with 22,50 a resonance cycle ; ( 3 ) solar activity and long-term changes in surface temperature above its short-term correlation between changes in correlation with sunspots , for example, it is the annual average surface temperature with a correlation coefficient of 0.31 ~ 0.35,11 a moving average correlation coefficient was 0.58 ~ 0.70,22 a sliding average of the correlation coefficient from 0.64 to 0.78 , the correlation of the total solar irradiance and surface temperature is higher than the correlation between sunspots and the surface temperature ; ( 4 ) sun Events in the last 100 years has significantly enhanced its global temperatures ( including land, sea ) in the past century warming is consistent, slightly higher than the correlation between solar activity and ocean temperature solar activity and terrestrial temperature correlation of these results indicate that solar activity on centennial timescales for surface temperature changes have a non-negligible impact.”
Personally very sceptical of this. Correlation is not proof, and there is plenty of evidence – as Mr LS points out – that there is no modern solar maximum anyway.
I think research into the 1980-2000 warming and subsequent “hiatus” would more fruitfully be directed at ocean cycles and climate sensitivity (or lack thereof).
Is this basically a problem of torturing data that is limited to begin with, like counting El Ninos events across time if there were no other details on size, etc.?
Re: AlBeaMaine at June 5, 2014 at 9:24 am
The Boston Globe carried a similar article today US hottest spots of warming: Northeast, Southwest
,
“To determine what parts of the country have warmed the most, The Associated Press analyzed National Climatic Data Center temperature trends in the lower 48 states, 192 cities, and 344 smaller regions within the states. Climate scientists suggested 1984 as a starting date because 30 years is a commonly used time period, and 1984, which had an average temperature, is not a cherry-picked year to skew a trend either way. The trend was calculated by the NCDC using the least squares regression method, which is a standard statistical tool.”