pear shaped (slang)
A British expression used to indicate that something has gone horribly wrong with a person’s plans, most commonly in the phrase “It’s all gone pear shaped.”The OED cites its origin as within the Royal Air Force; as of 2003 the earliest citation there is a quote in the 1983 book Air War South Atlantic. Others date it to the RAF in the 1940s, from pilots attempting to perform aerial manoeuvres such as loops. These are difficult to form perfectly, and are usually noticeably distorted—i.e., pear-shaped.
Dr. Richard Tol writes about a new revelation coming from an analysis of Cook’s climate publications volunteer raters, conducted by Brandon Shollenberger:
My comment on Cook’s consensus paper has at last been accepted. It was rejected by three journals — twice by Environmental Research Letters and once by two other journals for being out of scope. Fifth time lucky.
As these things go, my comment is out of date before it is published.
One of my main concerns was the partial release of data. The data that was available suggests that all sorts of weird things were going on, but without the full data it was hard to pinpoint what went on. Cook’s resistance to release the data, abetted by the editor, the publisher and the University of Queensland, suggested that he may have something to hide.
Brandon Shollenberger has now found part of the missing data.
Unfortunately, time stamps are still missing. These would allow us to check whether fatigue may have affected the raters, and whether all raters were indeed human.
Rater IDs are available now. I hope Shollenberger will release the data in good time. For now, we have to do with his tests and graphs.
His comment of May 10, 1:16 am shows that individual raters systematically differed in their assessment of the literature. This is illustrated by this figure; the circles are aligned if the raters are the same.
This undermines Cook’s paper. Theirs was not a survey of the literature. Rather, it was a survey of the raters.
Source: http://richardtol.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-97-consensus.html
Of note is the comment “Brandon Shollenberger has now found part of the missing data.”. While I don’t know for sure, it seems that the SkS kidz have left another gaping security hole wide open which allowed Shollenberger (and likely anyone, as we’ve seen before with their forum fiascos) to have a look at that rater’s data. Cook has been resisting requests to provide it.
Shollenberger writes in comments at his blog:
I’ve sent John Cook an e-mail alerting him to what material I have, offering him an opportunity to give me reasons I should refrain from releasing it or particular parts of it. I figure a day or two to address any potential privacy concerns should be enough.
His response will determine how much information I provide. No obligations were placed upon me regarding any of the material I have, but I don’t see any compelling reason to provide information about how I got it either. I’d need a better reason than just satisfying people’s curiosity.
…
But we’ll see what (if anything) Cook says. I said I’d give him the weekend. If I don’t hear anything tonight, I’ll try contacting him via Twitter/Skeptical Science. I may try having someone else from SkS get his attention for me. I don’t want him to simply overlook the e-mail I sent.
By the way, there is some value in associating ids and names. We have comments from many of the people who participated in the study. It could be useful to try to match up biases in the ratings with people’s stated views.
Tick Tock.
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A rather more lively Brit expression is ‘tits up’. Means the same
“Pear shaped’ comes from the silhouette of an advanced pregnancy. “Tits up” from the missionary position. Both mean that the subject of the expression is Fxxxed. Basic Anglo-Saxon is earthy, mundane and unimaginative. Emotionally cathartic though.
In the USAF anyway, tits up is called tango uniform.
That would be of USA, not British origin. It is either a vulgar version of “belly up” (most likely), known in the US and first captured in print in 1920, or a reference to WW2 (unlikely) aeroplanes and one of their dials, which when broken, turns upside down. The upside down lettering looks like breasts, and usually means enough damage to the cockpit that you had better bail if you still can.
Oops. I should have said tits instead of br***ts.
My applause and thanks to Brandon Schollenberger. This should be interesting.
There was in Eastern Oregon a phone company called “Telephone Utilities”…
Not going any further..
My last name was spelled three different ways in this post. I don’t think that’s enough. We should see how many different ways we can spell it.
REPLY: Apologies, fixed. – Anthony
IMO “tits up” is of North American origin, derived as a more colorful alternative from “belly up”.
Just how many Eastern Oregon commenters are there on this blog?
More proof – were it even needed – that, basically, Warm-mongers are pretty thick.
Branding Shoellenburger says:
May 10, 2014 at 9:42 am. It’s the age of the correspondent. By the time he’s got to the next time he needs to use a polysyllabic name, short-term memory loss has crept up on him and the Data has been corrupted. Use the pseudonym “Albert” – we’ll all understand.
grumpyoldmanuk, that’s the spirit!
dead fish float belly up. At least in my tank.
Pamela Gray says:
May 10, 2014 at 9:34 am
If it doesn’t just refer to a dead fish in the water, I suspect an aviation-related origin of “belly up” may be a classic botched biplane landing where the wheels dig into the ground, the nose strikes the ground, and the tail swings overhead and strikes the ground, leaving the wheels and belly up.
I don’t mean to start a pond war, but why do so many Americans think everything was started there? It reminds me of a conversation I heard a few years back. An American woman was talking to an English woman, and remarked on the Peter Rabbit books. “Do you have Beatrix Potter in England?” asked the American lady. The English woman just groaned.
I are one.
Milo, is that yoyu? Of sharp shooter fame?
grumpyoldmanuk
For whom the bell Tols (sic), caution, I half resemble that remark
At last something I know something about: English slang. Agreed as above, ‘Tits-up’ is a more colourful version of ‘belly-up’ meaning flat on your back fallen over. Vaguely related to ‘arse-over-tit’ as in upside-down or fallen over: and memorably bowdlerised by my deputy-head as ‘completely base-over-apex…’.
As regards the etymology of ‘everything is going pear-shaped’ I somewhat disagree with the above comments. I think this refers to the propensity of the female figure to change from hour-glass shaped to pear-shaped as the years wear on. ‘Going pear-shaped’ means things are definitely starting to fall apart…
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
May 10, 2014 at 10:17 am
In this case, because the phrase “tits up” did originate in the US or Canada, based upon lexicographical history. But if you have evidence for a British, Australian or other provenance, please trot it out.
I’m acquainted with both American & British aviators & other military personnel & heard it on this side of the pond long before the eastern shore. That’s only anecdotal, but there is this:
Cassell’s Dictionary of Slang
TITS-UP adjective [1960s and still in use] (originally Canadian prison) dead, i.e. laid out on one’s back
___________________
BELLY-UP adjective 1) [ 1970s and still in use] dead 2) failed, finished, especially bankrupt: usually prefaced by ‘go.’ [resembling a dead fish]
In my own experience, “belly up” goes back at least to the 1950s. “Tits up” was already in use among American armed forces members during the Viet Nam era, so the Canadian prison slang origin is IMO conjectural.
I would agree with Dr. Tol, and our host, that – as many here suspected – John Cook’s number resemble a crock of r*t s**t [no, not suet].
I continue to be disappointed in the media – the BBC today is pushing
“Scorching El Nino event could scupper England’s World Cup ”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27343057
Absolutely nothing about England not having enough players who are good enough, unhappily – it might be a degree or three warmer when we play our matches than the long-term average.
I guess that means weather . . . . .
Auto
And they found that they agreed with themselves. It doesn’t usually require a survey.
Pamela Gray says:
May 10, 2014 at 10:32 am
Nope. Sorry, but that’s a different Milo. The alias comes from experience with fossils of Smilodon spp & Mylodon harlani.
extract from John Roderigo Dos Passos’ Letters, 1920:
“Labor’s belly up completely – The only hope is in the I.W.W.” [the Industrial Worker’s of the World, a.k.a. The Wobblies]”
In a world that gives Al Gore a Nobel Peace Prize and an Emmy for his movie “An Inconvenient Truth” and brainwashes the known law of photosynthesis out of people, while brainwashing in a theory on paper that has busted in the real world for 15 years……………..the 97% consensus of climate scientists paper fits right in.