From the WUWT Solar Reference page, an X 1.2 event has occurred:
![Xray[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/xray1.gif)
From NASA Spaceweather:
Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet.
One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions. Rocky Raybell photographed the active region named “AR1944” yesterday from his backyard in Keller, Washington:
The sprawling sunspot contains dozens of dark cores, the largest big enough to swallow Earth three times over.
Here is the latest SDO image:
![latest_512_4500[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/latest_512_45001.jpg?quality=83)
This graphic from Tamitha Skov
More at the WUWT Solar Reference page
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I suppose some will blame George Bush or this…
“However, the extreme event in 1859 is theorised to have been well over X40 so a Z class designation is possible.” – Wikipedia on the Carrington event.
So X class is a linear scale. In 1859, it set telegraph systems on fire. That’s impressive. Does a solar minimum affect the probability of X class flares, or are they random?
It is fortunate that the probability of an Aurora Borealis display coincides with clear skies! My outdoor heated eyeball observatory is ready, the hottub is at 104°F. Goodie.
Its amazing how dangerous CO2 is – now terrestrial CO2 is altering conditions on the surface of the sun!
When can the earth expect an impact (if any)?
In the interests of enlightening the lay person, are there likely to be any effects noticeable to the average Earthling?
Any estimates on arrival time? Looking at CMEs, they appear to have a wide range in velocity.
Doug Huffman says:
January 7, 2014 at 2:19 pm
It is fortunate that the probability of an Aurora Borealis display coincides with clear skies! My outdoor heated eyeball observatory is ready, the hottub is at 104°F. Goodie.
___________________________
I remember two such instances as a boy in Northern Oklahoma. My Grandmother took us outside and pointed out the Northern Lights and when we went home a few days later, the minister next door showed them to us and gave us some more info about “Aurora Borealis”. I’m a city boy, now and the prospect of seeing the lights from the greater Oklahoma metropolis is slim.
Some video of the event.
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
Believe someone dropped this link here and I’ve kept it handy for just such an occasion.
Thank you, Bill Illis and ldd — beautiful (Bill) and spot on informative (both of you).
You’re quite welcome Janice, I love the northern lights and have been keeping an eye on that rather large black spot on the SUN in recent days…wondering if it would give us a show.
ldd says:January 7, 2014 at 3:31 pm
Thanks for the link for aurora forecasts. I remember seeing them in N. Indiana and Massachusetts in the 50s and 60s. Since moving slightly south to central Colorado in 1972, I’ve not seen them.
artwest says: January 7, 2014 at 3:06 pm “In the interests of enlightening the lay person, are there likely to be any effects noticeable to the average Earthling?” Can’t yet be told precisely. Watch for the Wing Kp Index to update. Kp≥5 is about minimum for a visible aurora (not just the glow) in the contiguous US.
AR1944 sits on a Hale Boundary [ http://www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf ] as you can see here: http://www.leif.org/research/2014-01-07.png and is thus expected to be active.
From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/msm-finally-gets-that-the-suns-magnetic-field-has-flipped/
lsvalgaard says:
January 6, 2014 at 9:58 am
Bob Weber says:
January 6, 2014 at 9:40 am
AR1944, when it rolls into position and if it fires off a flare towards us
[lsvalgaard]
I don’t think AR1944 will be flaring a lot…
It is in the wrong position with respect to the large-scale magnetic flux, e.g.http://www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf
What made you change your mind?
I’m open to having my mind changed, but I’m skeptical about the telegraph fires being caused by this event. I have no doubt that there was correlation, but….
Artwest – from yesterday, where I said
Bob Weber says:
January 6, 2014 at 9:40 am
“Electric space weather: “FLARES LIKELY TODAY: Giant sunspot AR1944 has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for potent Earth-directed eruptions.” – http://www.spaceweather.com/ “A minor S1 level radiation storm remains in progress following an increase in Earth directed proton levels. Unfortunately for us sky watchers, the bright coronal mass ejection (CME) it generated is likely directed away from our planet.” SSN=225, SFI=218 – http://www.solarham.net/ [“FORTUNATELY” would have been a better choice of words considering…] Further, the largest and quickest spikes I have ever seen in ACE LE Electrons (a double spike) and ACE HE Protons – http://solarimg.org/artis/ – AR1944, when it rolls into position and if it fires off a flare towards us, look for atmospheric brightening, a delayed warm blast from the tropics, an another planetary wave induced SSW, and the polar vortex to deliver another wave of bone-chilling killer cold – all Electric/Magnetic Weather Effects.”
Today, photons, protons, and electrons are arriving. You may feel bad in some way today, headache, stomach ache, tired, cranky, all recurring symptoms from electric space weather as it filters down to you. I call it all the “electric weather effect”. Don’t let it get you down. There’s nothing new under the sun.
X class solar flare ejection?
That has to mean we are doomed.
Can someone clarify why Aurora Borealis is mentioned but not Aurora Australis as well. Are those of us Down Under unlikely to see anything interesting?
Not a good time of the year to lose power in the north.
I’ve been living in North Pole, AK for a little over 3 years, and photographing the Northern Lights is a hobby of mine. At midnight last night there were no Northern Lights visible. As I left for work this morning at 7:30 (Alaska Standard Time), more than 3 hours before sunrise, there was an unusual amount of Northern Lights visible. That’s a nice way to start the day.
My “go-to” source for information on the Northern Lights is the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks website; http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/NorthAmerica/2014/01/07 which has forecasted the greatest aurora activity this Thursday and Friday. Our weather forecast doesn’t look good for viewing this, but I’ll have my camera’s batteries charged and my fingers crossed.
EW3 says:
January 7, 2014 at 5:09 pm
That happens with or without any flares from the SUN, more often it’s those winter winds coupled with heavy snow and/or ice that’s usually the cause.
Old Ranga says:
January 7, 2014 at 5:04 pm
If you check the link I left, there’s a red “view” line that indicates where you most likely will see them. I’ve never seen them reach the continent of Australia yet.
From northern Ontario originally although living very close to the St. Lawrence River now, I have seen the northern lights often. Once they were very visible in the summer, early 70’s and we were camping way up north – quite the sight to see them reflecting off the water. I’ve seen the small green circles in the night sky and the red/orange hues at dusk on the northern horizon, in winters. Other than that one camping trip, usually don’t get to see them as strong as the lucky Norwegians/Scandinavians get to see them. Search for their pictures – amazing stuff.
Bob Weber says:
January 7, 2014 at 4:26 pm
What made you change your mind?
In my initial judgement I took a too hasty look at the LMSAL polarity chart [ http://www.leif.org/research/2014-01-07.png from http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/ ], but the chart is wildly misleading:
1) the open flux regions have borders that are the opposite of the enclosed coronal holes: black holes [negative] have a white boundary
2) the poles do not have the correct polarity: south is now negative, north is positive, but the neutral line shows a positive south and a negative north. This is because LMSAL uses an annual [smoothed] value of the polarity
3) the HMF has been positive the past 16 days and a sector boundary (+,-) is expected in three days or so:
2013 10 22 2459 XXXXX.X**XXX….XX*….*XXX
2013 11 18 2460 XXXX*X*XX……….*…..*X
2013 12 15 2461 *XXXXXXX….*……….*
56789-123456789-1123456789-
So, AR1944 is actually on a Hale boundary after all.
Bob Weber says:
January 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm
all Electric/Magnetic Weather Effects
That is just your unfounded opinion. Careful analyses by many people [well-trodden path that we have been down many times before] do not support your claim.