While we wait for wacky antagonist Greg Laden to make a decision on whether he’ll chip and and help the relief effort, here are some useful bits of information that help put this storm into the perspective of “worst ever” claims, and opportunistic claims about it being a product of global warming, like Greenpeace is doing:
But, when you look at the science for tropical cyclones in the region, such claims don’t even begin to hold up. These two papers show the reality from data – no trend, either in landfall or in total frequency/intensity of storms:
Kubota, H. and Chan, J.C.L. 2009. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL038108.
“Despite global warming during the 20th century the number of tropical cyclones annually making landfall in the Philippines did not experience any net change. All variability was merely oscillatory activity around a mean trend of zero slope”
This is also backed up in Weinkle et al., 2012:
From currently available historical TC records, we constructed a long-period global hurricane landfall dataset using a consistent methodology. We have identified considerable interannual variability in the frequency of global hurricane landfalls; but within the resolution of the available data, our evidence does not support the presence of significant long-period global or individual basin linear trends for minor, major, or total hurricanes within the period(s) covered by the available quality data.
Therefore, our long-period analysis does not support claims that increasing TC landfall frequency or landfall intensity has contributed to concomitantly increasing economic losses.
Weinkle et al. Figure 2 A and C show the lack of trend:
Note that the WPAC represents the area including the Philippines:
It seems abundantly clear then that any claim trying to tie Typhoon Haiyan to a pattern of increased frequency of storms supposedly driven by “global warming” is patently false.
The news of Typhoon Haiyan is being bandied about in COP18 When Seth Borenstein doesn’t write articles for AP, here is the sort of balanced reporting you get: (h/t to Ryan Maue)
Typhoon Haiyan overshadows UN climate talks
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/typhoon-haiyan-overshadows-un-climate-talks
And, the Washington Post points out something that puts the tragedy of Haiyan in perspective:
Most weather experts expected reports of horrific damage and high loss of life given the intensity of the storm and geography of the affected areas, but not many were prepared when Philippine officials estimated that as many as 10,000 people may have died in Tacloban City alone when Haiyan struck.
If this death toll estimate holds up, however, it wouldn’t even put Haiyan in the top 35 deadliest tropical cyclones on record.
The most recent credible death toll report on Haiyan is 1,774:
Figures from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council showed the number of dead stood at 1,774, radio dzBB’s Paulo Santos reported.
Here is the top 35 list of Deadliest Cyclones from Weather Underground:
Better awareness, and better warnings thanks to technology combined with evacuations helped make Haiyan less of a tragedy than it could have been, though in the case of Tacloban, topography was the biggest factor in evacuations according to WaPo:
Mass evacuations of this sort are just not possible in some regions of the world, and this was certainly true of Tacloban and its surroundings. Many people in Tacloban were evacuated to sturdier buildings within the city itself, but due to the fact that the city lies on an island that is mostly mountainous, moving people out of the city and into other areas wasn’t possible.
For those that wish to help, see the Red Cross graphic on the WUWT sidebar, or follow this link: http://ushare.redcross.org.ph/
First, no increase in warming seen for 16 years and 11 months (and counting) means any claim of increasing storms from warming suffers from a distinct lack of warming.
Second, and obvious to anyone who uses brains (instead of just following the herd), if you have more people with more stuff in an area, then you can claim “worst ever” based on loss of life and property. However, this is not a measure of storm strenth, but of population growth, aquisition of stuff, and inflation. There is also modern cell phones in the picture, one can make it seem far worse than anything you have seen before not because it has not happened before, but because of the possibility of getting pictures and even video live from anywhere, you can see it this time whereas you could not before. This is especially true of remote, often poor locations where shantytowns and the like abound, or there is low lying ground, sides of mountains, or other such disasters waiting to happen.
I have seen descriptions of disasters going back at least 6000 years or so, trust me, this aint the “worst ever”, there have been plenty at least as bad, if not far worse.
The Cyclones in the top 35 list since 1970.
_1.Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh 1970 Bay of Bengal 300,000 – 500,000
_8.Super Typhoon Nina, China 1975 West Pacific _ 171,000
_9. Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh 1991 Bay of Bengal _ 138,866
10. Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar 2008 Bay of Bengal _ 138,366
33. Urir_______ , Bangladesh 1985 Bay of Bengal __15,000
34. Devi Taluk___, SE India _ 1977 Bay of Bengal __14,204
If someone wanted to use hurricane data to make a conclusion about climate change and death tolls, a lower CO2 concentration has a tendency to greater deaths.
That conclusion is no more poppycock than is the claim that 400 ppm CO2 is responsible for the Class 4/5 Typhoon Haiyan-Yolanda
What typhoons do, Kubota/Chan
Did state the measure by degree
Where winds of West Pacific ran
In pattern-fails when models ran
Down to a trendless sea
So twice more teams pulled fertile stat
In ivory towers of grant-fed fat
And toiled at desktops bright with fingerprint hopes
There blossomed many trend-stirring lines
But flattened or dropped depressing modeling dopes
Deflating their global warming hype designs
===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle
Rosenthal 2013:
Ocean heat content today near the very low end of the last 10000 years. Takes around 400 years just to recapture Medieval Warm Period temperatures, but only if warming continues.
http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/rosenthal-2013-figure-2c-annotated.png?w=760&h=520
300,000 deaths with the Hooghly River Cyclone in 1737 is quite something, and in the Little Ice Age.
I hope the Philippines death toll does not rise much and I hope their government thinks about better preparedness because such weather events are part of the region.
In your haste to show that the Haiyan is not the worse typhoon ever, you look at lost of life in the Bay of Bengali where a high population lives within a few meters of sea level. So you are looking at where the typhoon landed not how bad the typhoon was.
And then we look are the number of typhoons. zzzzz.
But, why do you ignore the relative power of the typhoon? or the fact that even with massive movements of people out of harms way—something they could not do in the 1800’s—thousands of people still die.
Your arguments seem embarrassingly weak because you miss, no, ignore the obvious.
Jimbo says:
November 11, 2013 at 3:48 pm
As skeptics of CACA would expect, & indeed anyone who knows what causes extreme WX events, storms are worse & more frequent in colder periods, including typhoons:
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/11/9/storms-and-global-warming.html
“Note to Greenpeace: CO2 and soot comes out of the stack on the right, water vapor comes out of the cooling tower you labeled as “storms start here”.”
If you think global warming causes more intense storms then Greenpeace has it right, water vapor is after all the most prevalent and the most potent of the greenhouse gases. 🙂
Also bear in mind population differences between when the “deadliest” typhoons occurred, and and now. It might be interesting to have a comparison chart of death tolls against population density.
Fifty-year typhoon cycle found in paper from the Annals of the Association of American Geographers:
A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records
Kam-biu Liu1,
Caiming Shen1,
Kin-sheun Louie2
Article first published online: 5 NOV 2004
DOI: 10.1111/0004-5608.00253
In China, the abundance of historical documentary records in the form of Fang Zhi (semiofficial local gazettes) offers an extraordinary opportunity for providing a high-resolution historical dataset for the frequency of typhoon strikes. We have reconstructed a 1,000-year time series of typhoon landfalls in the Guangdong Province of southern China since AD 975 based on data compiled from Fang Zhi. Even though the 571 typhoon strikes recorded in the historical documents probably underrepresent the total number of typhoon landfalls in Guangdong, calibration of the historical data against the observations during the instrumental period 1884–1909 suggests that the trends of the two datasets are significantly correlated (r= 0.71), confirming that the time series reconstructed from historical documentary evidence contains a reliable record of variability in typhoon landfalls. On a decadal timescale, the twenty-year interval from AD 1660 to 1680 is the most active period on record, with twenty-eight to thirty-seven typhoon landfalls per decade. The variability in typhoon landfalls in Guangdong mimics that observed in other paleoclimatic proxies (e.g., tree rings, ice cores) from China and the northern hemisphere. Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660–1680, 1850–1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age. Conceivably, the predominant storm tracks shifted to the south during these cold periods, resulting in fewer landfalls in Japan and the east-central Chinese coast but more typhoons hitting Guangdong. Spectral analysis of the Guangdong time series reveals an approximately fifty-year cycle in typhoon landfall frequency. While the physical mechanism remains to be identified, it is tempting to relate this periodicity to the pentadecadal variability identified in the North Pacific Index (NPI) time series.
Yep that’s right. A closer look reveals (my eyeballing) that during the recent warming since the late 1970s it’s been trending down! Or did I see it wrong?
Typhoon Nancy of 1961 had higher winds than Haiyan, if its measurements are to be credited:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Nancy_%281961%29
Its death toll wasn’t vast because it struck Japan rather than the Philippines.
Pippen cool have you been drinking the kool aid? In case you don’t remember the history. It was November 18, 1978, in Guyan. 909 people including 303 children were killed by a blind obedience to a nut. Your fanatical defense of AGW scare mongering brought this to mind. That really wasn’t a surprise to me after all the Jonestown followers, most of them, were fanatical believers.
Storms are not getting stronger. You really need to try and learn more before opening your mouth and inserting your foot, but then again fanaticism is not about learning it is about blindly following.
Here is something a little further south.
Pippen Kool says:
November 11, 2013 at 3:55 pm
Your arguments seem embarrassingly weak because you miss, no, ignore the obvious.
>>>>>
No, we do not ignore the fact that you are obviously delusional and overly enthralled with AGW. That makes your arguments embarrassingly weak.
But, to AW’s credit, he still allows you to troll here. Accepting all points of view, even lies and obfuscation, only allows TRUTH to shine that much brighter.
(You see, PK, some people actually seek TRUTH….)
IMO Typhoon Tip of 1979 remains the largest (diameter of ~1400 miles) on record, with the lowest recorded sea-level pressure in the world (870 mbar). It killed 13 Marines on Okinawa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip
Poppen Kollar: “But, why do you ignore the relative power of the typhoon? ”
The average US family has 2.4 children. By this, as I am just a man, I know my brother is 40% more people than me. Which is just so, as he’s the better of us both.
Mind that statistics only give you statistical things, not instances of blame. Especially when you want to claim that man is 20 kmh. Out of 235, or whatever it is currently.
Jimbo says:
November 11, 2013 at 4:20 pm
The settlement of Hawaii occurred sometime between AD 300 & 800, ie during the Dark Ages Cold Period, but the islands appear to have become isolated from the rest of Polynesia by the climatic deterioration of the Little Ice Age, ie after AD 1200.
I like Little Climatic Optimum for the Medieval Warm Period, although the Greco-Roman & “Minoan” Warm Periods were even more optimal, although only the latter really compares favorably with the Big Climatic Optimum before 5000 years ago.
Some images from Tacloban city, Philippines, some old, most are recent:
https://www.google.com.mx/search?q=Tacloban+City+Philippines&client=firefox-a&hs=Wli&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=QnaBUse-NuW52QWCgIHgBA&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1366&bih=619#imgdii=_
Here is some more history in the area.
Pippen Kool,
Strong cyclones have always been with us. Your mistake is to look at the present as if these things have never happened before. Strong cyclones over the area have happened before. Climate did not commence when you grew pubic hair.
Haiyan will make a very good poster for the CAGW crowd, there’s no doubt about that. Too bd none of the undiscerning will note that places like the Philipines, mired in poverty and corruption have never been able to provide their citizens with anything more than a miserable short nasty life even when the weather is fair.
There’s no control knob for hurricanes and tornadoes. It’s an utter fantasy.
The top 12 storms all had over 100,00 dead!!
I cannot imagine that !
Regards to Greenpeace – Putin is the man. He knows how to deal with that lot of scum. Regards to the Cyclone, as others have pointed out this is not the first “super” typhoon to hit that part of the world, nor the last. Unfortunately, the death tolls for that region will be high mostly because of poor facilities and poor efforts to move citizens out of harms way. Vietnam may well do a lot better as the military was there moving their citizens out before the storm hit and forced them to move if necessary. There is no other way to save lives in that part of the world besides moving their citizens, better knowledge getting to the folks in the predicted areas before the storms hit, and providing better facilities for their citizens to travel to wait out storms.
It is disguising that the AGW community use this tragedy for their own political purposes. There is no end to the level of degradation that community will descend.
Tim Walker says:
“Pippen cool have you been drinking the kool aid?”
Yes, of course he has. Pippen also has no understanding of the climate Null Hypothesis.
The current climate is actualy quite benign. No climate parameters exceed past parameters. Extreme weather events are less extreme than in the past.
And the Null Hypothesis has never been falsified.
“Better awareness, and better warnings thanks to technology combined with evacuations helped make Haiyan less of a tragedy than it could have been.”
I would say dramatically less, so I don’t see how comparing fatalities indicates anything about storm strength. The government moved 800,000 people into storm shelters prior to Haiyan’s landfall. That kind of advance warning would have only been possible on a few of the storms listed in the top 35.
To my amazement the Weather Channel even admitted there was no tie to global warming and all that could be said was this was one of worst typhoons in a segment I watched this afternoon.
milodonharlani 4:24,
The Marines died at Yokosuka not Okinawa. Other than that thanks, I didn’t know that.
But Greenpeace and Laden are not alone. Perhaps the “scientific” basis for their claims came from the indomitable gurus, whose expertise is now at such a level that they need no data at all to support their claims.
Yes, folks, the dynamic duo (aka Lewandowsky and Mann) have spoken from on high:
Isn’t it good to know that these “experts” (who need no data) are “reticent … [and] … overly conservative”** in their pronouncements, eh?!
** If evidence is still your preferred mode on which to base conclusions, my evidence for this somewhat abbreviated quote from Mann-in-more-modest-mode can be found at Reticent Mann skates onto melting ice, reinforces Stocker’s “choice”.
Given the wide range in estimated fatalities from the Great Bhola Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in 1970, just how reliable are the fatality figures from earlier cyclones in the same area?
According to IPCC2007 it should be less hurricanes but with greater intensity…….not sure how they arrive at that https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html
Well,,,,,,,,, of all the very good info I absorbed from this post, the most important is not to live in ~The Bay Of Bengal~…..….
Just sayin!
My wife comes from the hardest-hit area of south-eastern Samar. It is now 11/11/13 (Monday night) here in the US and we’re still waiting to hear if her family is alive or not. In the meantime, the “Climate Change Commissioner” for the Philippines is saying things like, “To climate change doubters, visit PH”, and “We refuse to accept typhoons as way of life”. The mindlessness of these statements is breathtaking, truly Mannian, but to the semi-educated (i.e., college degreed) of the third world, this sort of thing resonates.
The problem with natural events like hurricanes is where they land. In a populated are then immense loss of life is inevitable otherwise nobody hears about them. It’s not possible to measure storms in the past simply on the number of people who died.
Sandy’s destruction in N. York was down to very poor flood defences it wasn’t that big in real terms. The same applies to the Philippines. Even rudimentary building of sand hills with stabilising plant life will mitigate most of the effects of storm surges. It’s sad that so many people have died because adequate flood defences weren’t in place. If they are unwilling or unable to build such defences then erecting anything close to the beach (high water mark + contingency) should not be allowed.
I read a complete history of Boulder’s incompetence over the last century in being ready for the next inevitable flood.
None of this stuff is attributable to AGW it’s been going on for billions of years. I still can’t get my head round the idea that there is a steady state for climate.
This is not getting easier…..
Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines climate chief Yeb Sano makes emotional plea for climate change action
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/typhoon-haiyan-philippines-climate-chief-yeb-sano-makes-emotional-plea-for-climate-change-action/25903
Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines climate chief Yeb Sano makes emotional plea for climate change action
The last desperate stand of ratbags.
The frustrating thing when a high level insider like Yeb Sano makes a plea like this is that he is diverting attention from his failure to help prepare his nation for the inevitability of storms. This is not the worst storm to have ever hit the Philippines. It will not be the last.
If he is as educated as he claims, he should know this.
Why did he not help prepare people in vulnerable areas better?
Why is he pursuing this course instead of actually helping his nation?
Why is he making statements that are not supported by history or fact?
And have ya seen the arctic cold front that literally pouring cold air down in the central US states? Hoo-Wee! We gonna have ourselves a good freeze! There is lake-effect snow pouring out of low clouds on the western shore and inland a little ways in Michigan already!
What was the conclusion of the (Old?) Farmers Almanac again for this winter?
.
Matthew W says:
November 11, 2013 at 4:56 pm
The top 12 storms all had over 100,00 dead!!
I cannot imagine that !
Best, then, to not think about earthquakes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1556_Shaanxi_earthquake
~830,000
For others, see:
http://www.livescience.com/6932-deadliest-earthquakes-history.html
I just read at: http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/typhoon-yolanda-the-strongest-since-2006/ that in 2006 there was a typhoon in the Philippines which reached wind speed of 320 kph compared to 275 of the current storm. The name was Reming (Durian).
A similar storm with wind speed of 275 kph hit the Philippines in 1970.
In my opinion the wind speed is what matters, less than the number of victims which depends on where the storm hits.
Mayor Bloomberg did the same diversion act in the wake of Sandy. He’d ignored a 2006 report from Stony Brook college academics who’d recommended construction of a $6 billion storm surge barrier + highway (from NJ to LI). This was too technological-fixy and not green enough for him.
Well slightly off topic, but…
There is a comment forum on CNN regarding this storm. I was skimming though it, and was startled by how primitive the discussion of the science there actually is. I jumped into a couple of comments threads to rebut false information, providing references and quotes to back up my assertions….
AND THEY WERE DELETED
Now that’s the behaviour I’ve come to expect from the likes of RealClimate and Skeptical Science. But CNN? The facts I pointed out weren’t all that controversial, and some of my references were the AR5 reports themselves, yet…poof, gone.
I never had much respect for CNN in the past, I have even less now.
Mike H. says:
November 11, 2013 at 6:05 pm
You’re right. Sorry about that. The Marines tragically killed by the after-effects of Typhoon Tip weren’t on Okinawa. But that was a monster storm.
As far as the “world record” for a land falling storm, I think this would be the record – from Wackapedia:
“The highest wind speed ever recorded of 253 MPH was during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996, an automatic weather station on Barrow Island, Australia, registered a maximum wind gust of 408 km/h (220 kn; 253 mph; 113 m/s).[2] The wind gust was evaluated by the WMO Evaluation Panel who found that the anemometer was mechanically sound and the gust was within statistical probability and ratified the measurement in 2010…” Of course it was a recorded as a “gust”.
This surpassed the former wind speed record on Mt Washington, NH.
Dr. Spencer on CNN
(3 minutes) I found it a bit frustrating to watch.
http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/bestoftv/2013/11/12/exp-pmt-roy-spencer-mark-hertsgaard-climate-debate.cnn.html
A news summary of the coverage http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV-0S-go7iU
Werner Brozek says:
November 11, 2013 at 9:18 pm
You’re right that is hard to watch, even the part by Dr. Spencer as I don’t think the human fingerprint is even measurable, it is so small. The other guy thinks that every storm or weather event is caused by mankind…
Mr. Peterson,
Dr. Spence, whom I admire, made four basic mistakes which every novice debater who has any experience of engaging with the “left” knows:
1. He should have refused to appear with an ignorant reporter, rather than a scientist.
2. If he had just discovered who is debating him, he should have said bluntly, Sir, you don’t know what you are talking about, here are the scientific facts: ..,
3. He shouldn’t have conceded 50% to the “left”, any concession you make with them, serves them as a new attack position.
4. He shouldn’t let the other guy (with the help of Pierce) filibuster the debate.
Werner Brozek says:
November 11, 2013 at 9:18 pm
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What total and complete yellow journalism. CNN clearly has an agenda which I’ve noticed in their international reporting as well as their climate science reporting. They belong on Anthony’s blog roll, right up there with SkS.
Possibly even more terrifying than the suffering of the poor population of the Central Philippines is seeing the parade of clowns from the UN in Warsaw claiming that the typhoon was created by Global Warming and CO2. The fact that there is no Global Warming, and has not been for 15-17 years, does not impinge on their mindless enthusiasm to spread the propaganda. Most of them are working so hard on the propaganda that they are doing nothing to assist those in severe need in the Central Philippines. They have completely abandoned reason, science and compassion as well. There is a circle reserved in Dante’s Inferno for people of this sort.
_Jim says:
November 11, 2013 at 8:38 pm
> What was the conclusion of the (Old?) Farmers Almanac again for this winter?
From http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/NH/Concord , it expects November
to be 1F below average and December 1F above average.
Tad: “In the meantime, the “Climate Change Commissioner” for the Philippines is saying things like, “To climate change doubters, visit PH”, and “We refuse to accept typhoons as way of life”.”
Frankly, I’d rather they dissemble in the face of cruelty than that they turned their incompetence loose on relief efforts.
Jquip says:
November 11, 2013 at 10:28 pm
The Philippines doesn’t have much choice but to accept typhoons as a way of life, unless they can move their islands about 15 degrees of latitude south to center on the Equator.
milodon, if we rent a few tugboats and then sequester a lot of CO2 under it…
Jquip says:
November 11, 2013 at 11:07 pm
That’s the ticket!
Or we could use cheap fossil fuel energy to enrich the people so that they could afford to evacuate areas threatened by typhoons or build sturdier dwellings, as in Japan…Nah, that would never work!
I have struggled to contain myself at the actions and commentary on the typhoon from some on the Green side.
Let’s be clear. If you die, you die. Whether you die in the company of 12, 1,200 or 120,000 others you are dead in the same way and to the same extent. The only reason the numbers matter is to the living. If one person dies, there are others to comfort and support their surviving relatives, dependents and friends in their grief and misery. If 1,200 die the situation is much worse – not only do the survivors have to take care of themselves and each other in a way that they could never have been adequately prepared for, but the infrastructure and services on which their way of life was based may have disappeared, and require rebuilding and re-manning over a considerable time. If 120,000 die, then the deeper fabric of society may be submerged along with them. Culture, values, continuity of civilisation are all threatened, and this threat can spread out and affect the rest of the world. This is why it is important to know how big a disaster actually is.
Part of the threat to society that is presented by such a disruptive event is posed by those who take advantage of it for their own ends. This has always been true. Looters, phony charities, invading armies even – have all appeared in the wake of famine, earthquake and pestilence. To this number, unfortunately, we must now add the political looters of the climate alarmists. They steal the misery of those suffering, and the humanity of those watching and helping, to pursue their own programme of changing society. They are recruiting suffering as a child-soldier from the wreckage. They must be opposed by people of humanity and good will, with the same determination, intelligence and organisation in the wider world as that rescue and revival effort currently taking place in the stricken area itself.
I have never felt such distaste before at the antics of the alarmists. Maybe it’s because this time I was anticipating them. Listening to the news reports, knowing how ‘convenient’ the typhoon could be to the bear-baiters and dog-fighters at the UN climate conference, I spent several days ‘waiting for the other shoe to fall’. When it happened, when I heard the first (in my case BBC) mention of the possibility of further disasters ’caused’ by climate change, my first reaction was perversely delighted. I was right, they were going to exploit it! Ever since, I’ve just felt overwhelmingly sad. Thank you to everyone contributing to this and the other sites dedicated to exposing the perverse nonsense being peddled, and the cost to us all of letting it go unchallenged.
I must apologise to those Greens who are not CAGW activists (my previous) – there must be some of you, and I don’t mean to lump you all together…
I grew up near Manila, and typhoons were just a fact of life. Rainy season starts in June, conveniently also the start of the school year. Then rains start to taper in December leading to mostly dry weather through May. I’ve been through a couple of strong typhoons in my twenty years there. Fortunately they were only strong enough to uproot two of our avocado trees and topple some banana plants in our backyard. Some minor flooding, no roof damage and all walls intact. Manila encounters more floods, but it doesn’t take a typhoon to that, although floods are what typhoons generally bring to the city. I would say my typhoon experience and tolerance is average to maybe below average for a Filipino. While one of the maps above shows the country historically ravaged by storms, to the average person, Yolanda is really quite unexpected. It will be a new and painful reminder during the rainy season..
Gad Levin says:
November 11, 2013 at 8:40 pm
I just read at: http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/typhoon-yolanda-the-strongest-since-2006/ that in 2006 there was a typhoon in the Philippines which reached wind speed of 320 kph compared to 275 of the current storm. The name was Reming (Durian).
and 320 kph was just the speed of the Durian smell…
Jimbo:
At November 11, 2013 at 4:49 pm you say to Pippen Kool,
WUWT is a science blog so you need to provide evidence for an assertion especially when the assertion seems improbable. So, please provide your evidence that Pippen Kool has reached puberty.
Richard
davidmhoffer says:
November 11, 2013 at 8:52 pm
You, sir, are waaaaAAAaaay out of their demographic.
I only ever ‘comment’ at ‘news’ sites now for sh!ts and g!ggles. Almost all of my polite, referenced stuff gets binned.
MattS says:
November 11, 2013 at 3:55 pm
“If you think global warming causes more intense storms then Greenpeace has it right, water vapor is after all the most prevalent and the most potent of the greenhouse gases. :-)”
Gleick says we’re running out of water so that should take care of Global Warming. And of typhoons.
For those like me who dislike the Red Cross: Listing of 12 other organizations.
hunter says: @ November 11, 2013 at 8:18 pm
The frustrating thing when a high level insider like Yeb Sano makes a plea like this is that he is diverting attention from his failure to help prepare his nation for the inevitability of storms.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Beat me to it. CAGW is a God Sent for incompetent bureaucrats who wasted money instead of protecting their communities. No they can turn around and blame the tax payer. What a deal.
Tad says:
November 11, 2013 at 7:23 pm………………
What this venal jerk is posturing for is $$$$$$. and big bundles at that.
Without a doubt the biggest cause of the number of deaths is the 3rd world infrastucture of the area and the topography. With decent construction standards and a competent Government many deaths could have been avoided. But, I can virtually guarantee that any funds spent on redeveloping the area will be rorted by corrupt officials and the same thing will happen again in time.
Sad but true.
regards
“Gleick says we’re running out of water so that should take care of Global Warming. And of typhoons.”
OMG are we running out of water now, too?
Just have a review of Australia’s experience with water, when they went through their ‘running out of water’ fear mongering awhile back. Thank god for the early-adopter Australians, they have already been everywhere that our present alarmists are trying to send us.
Lubos Motl:
“Typhoon Haiyan: similar unspectacular cyclones arrive every 2-3 years
“Today in the morning, I was stunned by the dishonesty of the professional climate alarmists again. Their moral defects are just shocking. It seems completely obvious to me that they must know that they are lying 24 hours a day.”
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/11/typhoon-haiyan-similar-unspectacular.html
@ ntesdorf; 11/11, 9:49pm
The typhoon that struck the Philippines produced an outpouring of emotion on Monday at United Nations talks on a global climate treaty in Warsaw, where delegates were quick to suggest that a warming planet had turned the storm into a lethal monster.
Olai Ngedikes, the lead negotiator for an alliance of small island nations, said in a statement that the typhoon, named Haiyan, which by some estimates killed 10,000 people in one city alone, “serves as a stark reminder of the cost of inaction on climate change and should serve to motivate our work in Warsaw.”
Scientists largely agree that it appears that storms will become more powerful as the climate changes. Dr. Emanuel helped write a 2010 study, for example, that forecast that the average intensity of hurricanes and typhoons — different names for the same phenomenon — would increase by up to 11 percent by the end of the century.
Typhoon Haiyan, with winds of at least 140 miles an hour, was considered one of the strongest storms to make landfall on record. “The data suggests that things like this will be more frequent with global warming,” said James P. Kossin, an atmospheric scientist at the National Climatic Data Center.
Dr. Emanuel said that as the planet warms because of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases, the difference between sea and air temperatures increases. It is this difference that fuels these kinds of cyclonic storms.
“As you warm the climate, you basically raise the speed limit on hurricanes,” he said.
NYT; http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/world/asia/typhoon-in-philippines-casts-long-shadow-over-un-talks-on-climate-treaty.html?_r=1&
Pippen Kool says:
November 11, 2013 at 3:55 pm
“But, why do you ignore the relative power of the typhoon? or the fact that even with massive movements of people out of harms way—something they could not do in the 1800’s—thousands of people still die.”
They couldn’t do it NOW either. When you live cheek-to-jowl in a city on an otherwise mountainous forested island, there is nowhere for “Massive” movements to go. So who is ignoring the data? Blind adherence to a meme has blinded you indeed.
@ Pippen Kool, 11/11 3:55pm
In your haste to show that the Haiyan is not the worse typhoon ever, you look at lost of life in the Bay of Bengali where a high population lives within a few meters of sea level. So you are looking at where the typhoon landed not how bad the typhoon was.
And then we look are the number of typhoons. zzzzz.
But, why do you ignore the relative power of the typhoon? or the fact that even with massive movements of people out of harms way—something they could not do in the 1800’s—thousands of people still die.
Your arguments seem embarrassingly weak because you miss, no, ignore the obvious.
Care to explain all the other hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, tornadoes, floods, droughts, bushfires, etc. (many of which have been more severe and devastating than present) BEFORE so-called manmade CO2 induced climate change took place?
It’s places like Bangladesh I at feel sorry for, if my sums are correct in that storm record hey have lost some 1.6M people, & been hit some 1 times! If reporters can’t even get the units right & know the difference between km & miles, no one stands much chance of learning anything, unless they come here of course!
Doesn’t global warming actually mitigate storm strength? Storm strength is a direct measure of the energy being transferred from one place (ocean) to another (atmosphere). Efficiency is effectively increased with increased differences between the two locations. Global warming itself would lower the differential between the two locations. This would reduce the efficiency and thus actually make weaker storms.
But, hey, lets not allow laws of nature to get in our way!
“Philippines President Benigno Aquino III told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday that a well-publicized estimate that Typhoon Haiyan killed 10,000 people in his country is “too much,” and that the death toll likely is closer to 2,000 or 2,500. “We’re hoping to be able to contact something like 29 municipalities left wherein we still have to establish their numbers, especially for the missing, but so far 2,000, about 2,500, is the number we are working on as far as deaths are concerned,” he said.”
CNN
They call WUWT out for pointing out reality, then go on to say the philopino delegate has integity because he’s attemping to extort a change based on emotion and his country’s absolute failure to deal with the reality of existng in the path of tropical stoms.
[Link snipped. No need to give that blog any oxygen. — mod.]
I remember Typhoon Freda that hit Vancouver in 1962. There have been some very strong winds since but no typhoons. I agree that it is sickening that the alarmists use a situation such as this to advance their cause. And for the MSM to use the phrase “strongest typhoon ever”? When I ask out loud “ever” people look at me and say “well…….”.
Greenpeace, from their support of and funding for uncivilized acts from vandalism to near piracy, is not an organization that offers credible ideas. There role in society is closer to that of parasites than participants in advancing good causes or helping to relieve human suffering.
David Hoffer says:
“CNN clearly has an agenda which I’ve noticed in their international reporting as well as their climate science reporting. They belong on Anthony’s blog roll, right up there with SkS.”
I agree. Any blog that censors comments because they do not follow the AGW narrative should have their identities posted. SkS is one of tbe worst offenders, but there are plenty of others, as you found out.
Recent comments of mine were even censored by Ars Technica, and all I posted were about 4 – 5 CO2/Temperature charts. I was very polite, but it didn’t matter. The charts destroyed the alarmists’ comments, so they were arbitrarily deleted. Further, Ars allowed very scurrilous name-calling by the same alarmists to be published — in violation of their own written Policy — which was their only response to my charts.
The alarmist crowd has run out of legitimate arguments. Now, their only recourse is to censor the comments of scientific skeptics. That is clearly the next step, after deciding that they cannot debate skeptics. Now it’s propaganda, 24/7. There is not even a pretence of fairness.
dbstealey says:
November 12, 2013 at 10:09 am
Huffington Post cut me off after a few comments in just one exchange.
@Tim Walker, geran, Jquip, Jimbo, dbstealey, Mike Bromley the Kurd, Bruce C –
No, never was there a more zoned-out ignoramus than Pippen Kool.
@davidmhoffer –
That performance by CNN’s Mark Hertsgaard was about as bad as it gets.
Responsible journalists do not refuse to report on all but the politically correct side of an issue – THAT’s what is irresponsible.
The old 97% percent argument – straight argumentum ad verecundiam, as well as a flat-out .lie. More scientists reject the AGW meme than accept it (the Oregon Petitionj, 31,000+, is only the tip of the iceberg there). And even if it were true that 97 percent swallow it – truth and fact don’t abide by majority rule.
This mollusk’s rudeness towards Dr. Spencer is unprofessional and over the top,. Where does this mental midget get off thinking he has any kind of standing to challenge Dr. Spencer? We skeptics may disagree among ourselves on some points, but I have to say that the discourse here at WUWT makes organizations like CNN look pretty shabby by comparison.
As for CNN – there are so many paragons of bias, arrogance and bad manners there, one hardly knows where to start: in addition to that snail Hertsgaard, there’s Piers Morgan, Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, to name a few. All of them should just shut up and go away somewhere.
That picture with the cooling tower makes me literally angry with rage.
Let’s also forget that the Phillipines are in the most active cyclone region on the planet.
While I was looking at this earlier I couldn’t help but notice that there was a cyclone track hitting the southeast coast of Brazil… fascinating!
Just heard the Philippines death toll was reduced to an estimate of 2,000-2,500 which I’m sure even Greg Laden would welcome as good news.
I just posted a rebuttal to the snail Hertsgaard on CNN’s Piers Morgan blog – and it was deleted within seconds. So much for responsible journalism at CNN. A pox on them!
Here is what I posted at CNN which they immediately deleted:
That performance by CNN’s Mark Hertsgaard was about as bad as it gets.
Responsible journalists do not refuse to report on any but the politically correct side of an issue – THAT’s what is irresponsible. Responsible journalism presents all sides of a issue.
The old 97 percent argument – straight argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy, as well as a flat-out lie. More scientists reject the AGW meme than accept it (the Oregon Petition, 31,000+, is only the tip of the iceberg there). There is no such thing as “consensus” in science – consensus is the opposite of the scientific method, which calls for all theory to be constantly and resolutely questioned. And even if it were true that 97 percent swallow it – truth and fact don’t abide by majority rule. And the TRUTH is that there is NO TRUTH to the notion than man causes climate change.
This mollusk’s rudeness towards Dr. Spencer is unprofessional and over the top,. Where does this mental midget get off thinking he has any kind of standing to challenge Dr. Spencer?
This snail Hertsgaard is a paragon not only of ignorance but of bias, arrogance and bad manners. Worse than that, he has some crust calling Dr. Spencer a “denier,” in a crude and slanderous effort to link him to the Holocaust. Hertsgaard is the REAL denier here, of the science that proves the falsity of AGW versus the totalitarian political ideology that is all that supports AGW. And worse still, Hertsgaard’s endorsement of AGW marks him as the DENIER of another, very real Holocaust – the millions of people killed by starvation (ethanol program) and hypothermia (carbon taxes making people unable to heat their homes) as a result of policies driven by AGW.
Nobody watches CNN anymore…have you seen their ratings??
It’s like asking “When was the last time you got your weather information from The Weather Channel”? Uhhh…..
As usual Anthony, you have done a great job. Thank you!
I have friends living on Leyte. They are good and hard working people. I ring and there is no connection. Thank you for the rational and humane explanation of this tragedy. I am outraged by the cynical and dishonest exploitation of this tragedy by Greenpeace and other climate change ideologues. All of this should never be forgotten.
wikipedia is reporting it as the strongest storm of 2013. That really does not say much….
IF this turns out to be true, then perhaps the Tacloban official responsible for the 10,000 claim wasn’t just in error, but was angling for a greater share of relief assistance from the government. Or maybe he is a warmist looking to influence the Warsaw talks. Or both.
Philippines should learn from India, who lost a similar number of people in a similar cyclone in 1999, then took steps at village level to ensure it did not happen again, learning from experience:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/10/14/odisha%E2%80%99s-cyclone-shows-india-can-handle-disasters-but-longer-term-action-is-needed/
Cyclone shelters:
http://southasia.oneworld.net/manage-site/photo-story/indian-state-to-get-140-cyclone-shelters
I have a question. Can tropical depressions significantly affect wind shear along the path it travels.
Let me qualify my previous statment. Wikipedia is reporting in the headlines that it is the strongest of 2013, while the actual article says strongest ever to make landfall.
oops
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/philippine-president-puts-typhoon-death-toll-at-2000-to-2500/article15389636/
Unfortunately, I think Dr. Spencer needs to stay off the TV and leave the debate to those who know how to debate. He is a brilliant scientist and has brought invaluable research to the surface debunking AGW, but he got his clock cleaned in that interview with his lack of the most basic debating skills. Mark Hertsgaard is a hack who does nothing but spout off easily disproved sound bites, but he is an expert at drowning out his opponents. Please Dr., continue your research but stay off the TV – you’re not doing the cause any good.
The Philippines government failed utterly to protect its people – again. Its crying lying mouthpiece at the UN Warsaw conference did and said nothing about the endemic corruption of his government that left millions of poor people exposed to the full force of the typhoon. Climate warming did it. Right. Its now the mantra exculpation of a corrupt elite that fails to evacuate, build shelters and then leaves its suffering citizens to starve. The cynicism of the Philippines government is disgraceful. Sano says he is going to fast till something is done. Well many Filipinos are starving until the lying corrupt elite, that he is part of and represents, are removed from their privilege and positions of power.
http://theconversation.com/typhoon-haiyan-a-perfect-storm-of-corruption-and-neglect-20149http://theconversation.com/typhoon-haiyan-a-perfect-storm-of-corruption-and-neglect-20149
Here is a simple yet great counter to the Warmists claims I found at Bishop Hill. ‘Logic’ at its simplest.
The debate on human-affected climate change for the average punter is an issue of trust. Ordinary blokes like me can’t hope to know and understand as much as a qualified and experienced meteorologist like Anthony Watts, or any other climate scientist. But their opinions differ. This blog demonstrates once again why I choose to not trust Mr Watts, and choose instead to trust the very many scientists who contribute to the IPCC Assessment Reports. Mr Watt’s does not deal with the real concern, which is the intensity of Typhoon Haiyan. The number of typhoons generally is less of a concern that any one typhoon of the destructive force of Haiyan. It is typical of Mr Watts to not address that issue, but to immediately divert the debate to historic, and sometimes doubtful, fatality rates.
The pseudo-science flaunted on this site, is a magnet for all those who want to believe that their world is fine and resist any attempt by others to make them appreciate the consequences of their actions. The several references to the Philippines’ poor preparation, defences and government are poor taste and again have nothing to do with the debate on whether AGW is a reality. The gloating remark by some bloggers above about accepting the dangers of where one lives, implies that the good fortune of Western nations to be located largely beyond the clutches of typhoons is an obscene justification for shrugging our shoulders.
So, no I don’t trust you, Mr Watts. You might win over a few of the insecure and selfish, but your subtle brand of obfuscation of the issues turns me off.
By the way, surface temperatures in New Zealand and Australia continue to climb.
REPLY: There is an update on wind speed reporting here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/deconstructing-the-hype-on-super-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/
Anyone care to comment?
Nature 455, 92-95 (4 September 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature07234; Received 25 January 2008; Accepted 27 June 2008
“The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones”
Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30-year trend that has been related to an increase in ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere…
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Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:
November 13, 2013 at 1:43 am
The pseudo-science flaunted on this site, is a magnet for all those who want to believe that their world is fine and resist any attempt by others to make them appreciate the consequences of their actions.
***
Just to remind — you’re on an adult website. You need to up your game quite a bit to be taken seriously here…
OK, I am officially tired of the continual repetition that the only way to help the Philippines is with cash donations. While possibly true, it is coming off as a demand, and smells of cash skimming to me!
eg. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/philippines-typhoon-aid-cash-the-most-effective-donation-1.2424253
Now they are even writing ‘news’ stories about how useless any other type of donation is.
Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:…
OK, I realise you are likely just a troll, and won’t be back here to even read this, but your point falls flat. Mr. Watts already addressed the intensity issue in a previous post. The fact is, this typhoon was very typical. Here is a good read on the topic, originaly posted by Don B
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/11/typhoon-haiyan-similar-unspectacular.html
Wikipedia update: The article on this typhoon is now reporting it as “unofficially the strongest recorded tropical cyclone to make landfall”. A slight improvment from yesterdays wording.
Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:…
Sorry to keep posting here, but this is really getting me upset. While posters like Martin keep using ambiguous terms like “intensity”, none of the CAGW guys will actualy point to a specific metric. Please Mr. Wright, can you tell us what metric you used to come to your “intensity” conclusion. I have reviewed several metrics and have yet to see a single one that suggests Typhoon Haiyan is anything but typical. (wind speed, central pressure, storm surge, diamiter, cost in terms of either human life, or property damage…) So please Mr. Wright, enlighten us!
PS, please don’t think I am uncarring, I feel deeply for the people who lost loved ones. However, using this as a cheep tool to advance the CAGW cause drives me nuts.
By the way, surface temperatures in New Zealand and Australia continue to climb.
Unsurprising, as the Southern Hemisphere is moving into summer. Get back to us next May or June.
I’m pleased that the death toll is far lower than the estimated 10k+. But still too high. And this is likely to grow far higher if the immediate response doesn’t improve dramatically in very short order.
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Jeff in Calgary says:
November 13, 2013 at 6:38 am
Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:…
OK, I realise you are likely just a troll
***
Here’s some choices:
http://www.politicsforum.org/images/flame_warriors/
I don’t think there have been enough dumb or smart ships over the centuries to be able to say which TC was baddest arsest. Also, my understanding is, our hurricane hunter planes don’t do freebies for other countries and this one was not measured using that method.
And this is likely to grow far higher if the immediate response doesn’t improve dramatically in very short order.
What does this mean, TomB?
After the cyclone I experienced there was an immediate response, but the dead were still dead and they died during the cyclone.
You cannot move a large number of people very quickly and cyclones/tropical storms are beyond our control.
Richard I assume you are not writing from Leyte. Corpses still haven’t been buried and the Philippine government has failed to respond effectively to this massive tragedy. A government has a moral responsibility to protect its citizens. The Philippine government failed dismally with tragic consequences. The government authorities were HOURS late in their warnings and instructions to evacuate and to move people. Now bodies rot in the streets while a corrupt government cant even mobilise vehicles to distribute food. The Filipinos deserve much better than this. And they deserve our compassion, prayers and support.
Martin Wright, Auckland, New Zealand. says:
November 13, 2013 at 1:43 am
I don’t know how you managed to miss all the discussion on this blog of the strength of this typhoon as well as the frequency of all tropical cyclones. Those whom you ought to doubt are the CACA advocates who made blatantly false claims about Yolanda in order to push their agenda, not Anthony Watts, who tried from the start both to discover the scientific facts of the case, while also facilitating contribution toward relief of the disaster in the PI.
There is an update on wind speed reporting here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/deconstructing-the-hype-on-super-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/
Martin Wright
It is “poor taste” in whatever moral universe you inhabit to speak what is to you the inconvenient truth about the causes of unnecessary suffering? You make misinformed attacks on the integrity and honesty of Anthony Watts in the cause of a morally bankrupt warmist movement? Mate, you call yourself an “ordinary” bloke. In Australia we use the word “ordinary” sometimes as a pejorative. Your self description in that sense fits perfectly.
A government has a moral responsibility to protect its citizens
May I suggest that you take up the task of ensuring that all governments fulfill this moral responsibility you have allocated to them. I hope that Rosinante will put up with you.
Mate I have bet on slower and more broken down nags than Rosinante. I am sure we will get on just fine.