By Paul Homewood
It has been variously described as “The Storm of the Century”, “Unprecedented”, “Superstorm” and “A repeat of 1987”. I refer, of course, to the St. Jude storm that passed through early this morning and is now headed off into the North Sea.
Let’s have a look at the impact, and see how it compared to other recent storms in the UK. We have not yet got confirmed figures from the Met Office, but it is unlikely they will be much different to the provisional data below.
The Daily Mail have this useful map, which seems to sum up things nicely.
The Telegraph report that the highest windspeed recorded on the mainland was 82mph at Langdon Bay in Kent. The next highest, 79mph, was in Essex.
Winds of this speed are not unusual in the UK, albeit less common in the south. It was only last year that Scotland experienced a similar storm, as the Met Office report.
The worst affected area was southern Scotland – particularly the Central Belt – where winds gusted at well over 70 knots (81 mph). In this area, this storm was judged as the most severe for 13 years – since 26 December 1998, with wind speeds exceeding those of the recent storm of 8 December 2011. Very strong winds were also experienced across much of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, with winds here also widely gusting at 50 to 60 knots (58 to 69 mph).
In England, you have to go back to January 2005 for a comparable storm, this time in the North of England. Again, from the Met Office:
January 7/8 – as a very deep depression (reaching 962 mb) tracked north-eastwards across southern Scotland, strong winds battered England and Wales particularly northern areas. Gusts in excess of 70 knots (81 mph) were recorded from the Isle of Man and north Wales across to the coast of north-east England. 88 knots (101 m.p.h.) was recorded at St Bees Head (Cumbria) and 89 knots (102 m.p.h.) at Aberdaron on the Lleyn peninsula (Gwynedd).
In southern England, the St Jude storm was the strongest since October 2002, when highest gusts of 102mph were recorded at the Needles,( as against 99mph this year). In 2002, the storm hit the west of England and Wales hardest, but, nevertheless, winds over 80mph hit inland areas, such as Cottesmore, in Rutland, which recorded 70 knots (80mph).
The map below suggests that more of the country was affected. (Remember that 60 knots is at least 70mph).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/27oct2002storm.html
Neither the storm of 2002 or this year’s come anywhere close to the Burn’s Day storm of 1990, or the Great Storm of 1987.
Burns’ Day Storm – January 1990
From the Met archives:
Burns’ Day Storm – 25 January 1990
However, in many places wind speeds were comparable to or higher than October 1987. January 25th is the day when many Scots remember the birthday of their national poet Robert Burns.
Impacts
The strong winds affected a much larger area than in October 1987 and they struck during the day so consequently there were more deaths and injuries, with 47 lives lost. The wind speeds were comparable to those in 1987, but higher over parts of southern England and Wales. Once again there were disruptions to power supplies and to transport, particularly to road transport because of fallen trees and overturned vehicles. There was also considerable damage to buildings, particularly to housing and to the south of a line from west Wales to Suffolk. The loss of trees was less than in October 1987 since the strongest winds occurred in less wooded areas and deciduous trees were bare of leaves.
Weather Data
The synoptic chart for 12 GMT, 25 January 1990.
The strongest winds were in the late morning and afternoon, with hourly mean speeds in excess of 40 kn (46 mph) across a large part of southern England and Wales and over 50 kn (58 m.p.h.) at exposed places along the coast. Gusts of over 80 kn (92 m.p.h.) were reported along coasts in west Wales and from Cornwall to Kent. The highest gusts recorded were 93 kn (107 m.p.h.) at Aberporth in west Wales and at Gwennap Head in Cornwall. The return period (average frequency of occurrence) of the maximum gusts was estimated at more than 100 years at places from Dorset to west London.
The Great Storm of 1987
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/5/October_87_Storm_-_16_October_1987.pdf
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Piers Corbin had, of course, predicted this one 🙂 or did he?
These storms are common in the north of Scotland especially this time of year, but the jet stream is much further south.
http://www.netweather.tv/?action=jetstream;sess=
We did manage to get to 16mph in Solihull so affecting the whole country is a fantasy. Only reason we really heard about it was because it affected the S.E. 200 trees down is hardly a major event even there. Railways are highly vulnerable because of shallow rooted trees growing on embankments..
I remember the 1987 storm really well. I know that the Alarmists are going to claim that they see the hand of climate change/climate confusion/weather wierding. Anyone with a modicum of sense will sniff that out as being bunkum so I really hope that they do. It makes them look silly. Weather is not Climate !
I have not yet heard any bleats that “this storm is further proof of global warming”, and not just some unusually severe weather.
Sadly, the critical word here is ‘yet’, by now the pseudo-scientists must be lining up around the block with their ‘proofs’ – the Guardian and the BBC will be first in line with their dubious ‘experts’ confirming that this storm was not weather, but 110% copper-bottomed, evidence confirming imminent Thermageddon.
‘Ferocious rain, thunder and winds attack S/W parts and head east, bringing heavy rain, hail, thunderfloods and tornados likely, firstly in S/W parts and then in east and north. Thick cloud. Very mild nights, days also mild (less so in SW). No change from 45d’
The above is from Piers Corbyn’s October 30day ahead forecast, for the period 29th October to 31st, for which I am a subscriber and I received the forecast on 1st October.
The storm arrived one day early, but that’s pretty good from 6 weeks out (you’ll note the last sentence – NO CHANGE FROM 45 DAY FORECAST), isn’t it??
Paul
In our neck of the woods-the South West-the storm was not as bad as had at first been feared. Analysing it now on the local news the BBC meteorologist said it was the worst storm in this region for nearly….roll of drums….two years.
Nowhere near as bad as 1987, but bad enough of course for those who suffered the thankfully rare tragic consequences.
tonyb.
Let’s not downplay the seriousness of this weather event.
Four people were killed.
It would be right to pause and remember that.
I live about 130 miles from London and we saw nothing of it here.
It is big news because it affected the south east where most of the national media are based.
London SW19:
If the 1987’s October storm was an elephant the 2013 October’s storm was a medium size pig.
Its right to remember the damage and the deaths, but also to compare it to a normal day’s worth of accidents.
But the biggest storm was the storm of speculation before it. As a result we see the rail network closed down before the storm hit on the assumption that it was going to be far worse.
Here in North Lincolnshire where l live we got off rather lightly.
Because the centre of the storm passed almost overhead, so missing the strongest of the winds. When l awoke this morning and checked my barometer it was reading 28.80 inches (975) millibars. This has been the second lowest reading l have recorded since having the barometer since October 1994.
As a former resident of Hounslow, I am always surprised by how little damage results from high winds as the the housing stock in much of London dates from the Victorian era when developers were not constrained by much in the way of a sensible (and enforcible) building code.
For example, roof timbers were not wired on to walls, very few steel-reinforced concrete bondbeams were tied into the construction and very little in the way of diagonal bracing was employed. As an Antipodean observer with some practical knowledge and experience of building structures to withstand inclement weather events, it seems that a mostly benevolent climate with low inherent wind speeds without significant earthquake risk allowed English builders to work on the principle “It won’t fall down because there is nothing holding it up!”
We must not forget any casualties, and it is fair to say, thankfully, that there was plenty warning of this storm.
(The first warning appeared to come from Jonathan Powell of Vantage Weather, who flagged it up a couple of days before the Met Office)
T’aint a fit night out for man nor beast.
I was in both storms (yesterdays and 1987) and I was also in areas which had the highest wind. This time I was in both high wind and heavy rain.
The 1987 storm was far worse.
I understand 4 people lost their lives last night in accidents directly related to the storm (falling trees etc.), This is of course tragic for them and their families.
Overall however the storm last night was over-hyped (shock!!!) and in comparison to 1987, which I remember fairly well, a damp squib.
The BBC are still calling it “the worst storm to hit the UK in a quarter of a century” though perhaps they have to try to justify why half their normal presenters weren’t on air today (and BBC on-line ‘Have Your Say’ was conspicuous by its almost complete absence – one story started at 1pm).
The small number of tragic events aside, it was a complete non-event.
TonyB
I’m in the South West too. I followed the gale on local weather stations and it seemed as if it was basically a force 8 with the odd gust to force 9 or maybe force 10. Fierce stuff – but hardly out of character for Cornwall and the UK. The BBC lunchtime national TV news opened by claiming it was the “worst storm for decades”. That was certainly playing fast and loose with the truth, and was also in conflict with other BBC reports being broadcast simultaneously. Why do they do that? An “agenda”? Or perhaps just an aversion to letting the facts get in the way of a good story.
My go-to man for UK climate is Philip Eden (http://www.climate-uk.com/). I’ll be interested to see what he has to say about.
I think we call this weather. 🙂
Any deaths are tragic, and there are so far 4 reported including 2 teenagers.
This was simply an Atlantic autumn gale, albeit on the stronger side, but nothing particularly notable – except the media hysteria.
I telephoned my 88 year old mom who lives on the South Coast (about a mile from the English Channel) this morning to see how she weathered what my local paper called the “Worst Storm in 60 Years”. She was just fine and summarized this unprecedented hurricane strength storm thusly:
“It’s a bit windy. But I don’t know what all of the fuss was about.”
Rhys Jaggar says:
October 28, 2013 at 12:29 pm
The above is from Piers Corbyn’s October 30day ahead forecast, for the period 29th October to 31st, for which I am a subscriber and I received the forecast on 1st October.
The storm arrived one day early,
I didn’t see where in the forecast the day of the storm was given. Perhaps I missed it. The forecast talks about ‘Very mild nights, days also mild’ so does not seem to be about any specific time, but rather just for the whole period, during which such a storm is a common occurrence.
Commiserations to the families of the four who dies in this storm. Sadly there will be those in the Green industry who will capitalise on this and repeat the old cliché that this is “consistent” with climate change and that it is a “sign of things to come.” Sigh.
Oh yeah, and that other cliché: The New Normal. Double-sigh.
Oh, and let’s not forget the old “Dirty Weather.”