The Week That Was: 2013-10-26 (October 26, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: Our imagination is stretched to the utmost, not, as in fiction, to imagine things which are not really there, but just to comprehend those things which are there. – Richard Feynman, The Character of Physical Law (1965)
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Number of the Week: $1 Billion per day
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By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
THIS WEEK – NIPCC Review: Four of the authors on the latest report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Craig Idso, Robert Carter, Fred Singer, and Willie Soon, have written a review of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They find that the IPCC has retreated on at least 11 alarmist claims in prior reports. Thy also find the new SPM has at least 13 misleading or false statements, and that another 11 statements are phrased to mislead the readers or misrepresent important aspects of the science.
Among the retreats was that IPCC recognizes:
· Surface warming essentially stopped about 1998 even though there has been 7% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since then.
· Continents experienced a Medieval Warm Period and a Little Ice Age, which, of course, contradicts Mr. Mann’s notorious hockey-stick.
· Antarctic sea ice expanded between 1979 and 2012, which is inconsistent with the claimed global warming.
· The models failed to forecast the observed failure of the globe to warm. The latest estimated range for a warming from a doubling of CO2 is 1.5ºC to 4.5ºC (about 3 to 7ºF), which is the same as the estimate made by the National Academy of Sciences 34 years ago.
The last retreat is particularly significant. According to government reports, since 1993 the US spent at least $150 Billion on climate change activities, at least $35 Billion on what was categorized as climate science; yet, there has been no improvement in the scientific knowledge of the influence of atmospheric CO2 on temperatures. This failure to advance scientific knowledge supports Richard Lindzen’s contention that the entire program is not designed to answer critical questions.
Among the 13 misleading or untrue statements uncovered by the NIPCC team are:
· “Probabilistic estimates of quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding are based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or both, and expert judgment.”
· “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented.”
· “The reduced trend in radiative forcing (1998-2012) is primarily due to volcanic eruptions.” The NIPCC team asserts there were no globally significant volcanic eruptions during the period.
· “The net radiative feedback due to all cloud types combined is likely positive. Uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the cloud feedback is due primarily to continuing uncertainty in the impact of warming on low clouds.” The statement is inconsistent on its face.
· “The underlying assumption is that the models contain a perfect representation of the physics of the climate system and so can account accurately for all different forcings.” This is a false assumption because our knowledge is much less than complete.
The 11 instances of deceptive language include:
· “Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.”
· “In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.”
· “The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.”
For further NIPCC comments and rebuttals to IPCC statements see link under NIPCC Reports. For Richard Lindzen’s critique of the climate establishment see link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Reliable Models: Given the enormous sums the US government has spent on climate studies, in what may be considered a strange announcement, MSN News reports that the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, a division of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) have announced a program to develop climate models that will substantively contribute to the advancement of reliable regional and decadal climate predictions. Could it be that NSF and USDA recognize that global climate models cannot be used for predictions or is it an expansion of the failing programs? Please see links under Model Issues.
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95% Certainty: Given the failure of nature to obey human global climate models, the IPCC’s claim of 95% certainty that most of the warming since the 1950s was due to human greenhouse gas emissions is without merit. In an amusing post, Roy Spencer and John Christy plot the results from 90 (ninety) global climate models (CMIP5) and compare the results with observed average temperature from both surface and satellite measurements. They find that 95% (actually, 96.7%) of the models overestimate the temperature trends. Spencer suggests that the IPCC actually meant to say was that it is 95% sure its climate models are warming too much. Please see link under Models v. Observations.
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$3.2 Trillion: Craig Idso has estimated the social (monetary) benefits of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide. He estimates that between 1961 and 2011, the total monetary benefits come to $3.2 Trillion, with over $140 billion in 2011 alone. As atmospheric CO2 increases, these benefits increase.
Matt Ridley discusses a new book by Bjørn Lomborg, How Much have Global Problems Cost the World?: A Scorecard from 1900 to 2050, with emphasis on a chapter by Dutch economist Richard Tol, who estimates that global warming benefited humanity and will continue to benefit humanity until about 2080.
These and other estimates contradict the positions of US government agencies on the Social Costs of Carbon. Please see links under Social Benefits of Carbon.
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Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice. The Arctic melting season is over and it disappointed many alarmists. Arctic sea ice failed to melt as much as it has in the past few years, disrupting the trend and falsifying the predictions that the Arctic will be free of ice by 2013. Contradicting alarmists, polar bear expert Susan Crockford points out that the extent of the late season ice is not particularly important for polar bears. Spring ice is more important, when the bears are heavily feeding and are on the ice hunting seals.
It is unclear if the freezing season is over in the Antarctic. However, the extent of the Antarctic sea ice is the greatest since satellite measurements and according to scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute, the volume of Antarctic ice is the greatest measured. These findings contradict claims by warming alarmists. See links under Changing Cryosphere.
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Fires: Much is being made of the fire season in Australia with claims that the extensive fires are the result of global warming/climate change. David Evans points out that the fires are more due to excessive fuel loads than changes in climate. Long before Europeans came, aborigines cleared major parts of southeast Australia by burning. By stopping burning, modern-day Europeans have allowed the fuel loads to become extremely high. The Indians of North America also used burning to modify the landscape. The Australian fires are an example of environmentalism run amuck. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
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Adaptation: A major cyclone, Phailin, hit eastern costal states of India. The estimated wind speeds are in excess of 200 kilometers (130 miles) per hour and the storm surge to be 3.5 meters (11 feet). Yet, only 25 deaths were reported, rather than ten thousand or more, which was traditional for such storms. The big difference was massive, timely evacuation of those living along the coast, which is what the US failed to do with Katrina. The actions in preparing for Phailin illustrates the importance of adaption. See links under Changing Weather.
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Additions and Corrections: The last TWTW and last week’s brief update each contained a typo. Reader Paul Kenyon corrected the spelling of climate scientist Hans von Storch and Randy Randal corrected the spelling CEI attorney Sam Kazman. As always, TWTW appreciates such corrections.
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Number of the Week: About $1 Billion per day. The Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) estimates that the world is spending about $359 Billion fighting global warming in 2013 or about $1 Billion per day. CPI states that it: “is a team of analysts and advisors that works to improve the most important energy and land use policies around the world, with a particular focus on finance.” CPI refers to expenditures as investments to fight global warming/climate change.
The IPCC is called the premiere scientific organization on climate change and it does not understand the natural causes. One must wonder about the anticipated rate of return on climate investments.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. A Carbon Reckoning
The Supreme Court will hear a crucial case about EPA overreach.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 16, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304106704579137431281832884?mod=ITP_opinion_2
2. Mississippi Plant Shows the Cost of ‘Clean Coal’
By Rebecca Smith and Cameron McWhirter, WSJ, Oct 13, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304795804579099220332096960
3. The New Dark Continent
Wind and solar mandates are breaking Europe’s electric utilities.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 16, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304561004579135342499141958
4. The Irrational Fear of GM Food
Billions of people have eaten genetically modified food over the past two decades. Not one problem has been found.
By Marc Van Montagu, WSJ, Oct 22, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303680404579141741399966328?mod=ITP_opinion_0
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
NIPCC Report:
Scientific Critique of IPCC’s 2013 ‘Summary for Policymakers’
Craig Idso, Robert M. Carter, S. Fred Singer, Willie Soon, NIPCC, Oct 16, 2013
http://heartland.org/sites/default/files/critique_of_ipcc_spm.pdf
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
AGU summarily rejects minority report without due process
Further Discussion on the Narrow Process of the AGU Review of Climate Change
By Roger Pielke Sr, WUWT, Oct 14, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/14/agu-summarily-rejects-minority-report-without-even-reading-it/
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Climate Science: Is it Currently Designed to Answer Questions?
By Richard Lindzen, Sep 29, 2013
http://globalresearch.ca/climate-science-is-it-currently-designed-to-answer-questions/16330
IPCC In A Stew: How They Cooked Their Latest Climate Books
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 13, 2013
Lack of Data For All Phases of Water Guarantees Failed IPCC Projections
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 22, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/lack-of-data-for-all-phases-of-water-guarantees-failed-ipcc-projections/
The True Global Warming Crisis: The Fibs Underlying The Theory
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 15, 2013
Another Reason Why IPCC Predictions (Projections) Fail. AR5 Continues to Let The End Justify the Unscrupulous Means
Noble cause corruption in the process.
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Oct 14, 2013
From Science…To Art…To Hypotheticals
The new RCPs are not projections, probabilities, prophecies or pathways – they might possibly be potentialities.
By Barry Brill, WUWT, Oct 20, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/20/from-scienceto-artto-hypotheticals/
IPCC exaggerates risks: Opposing view
By Joe Bast, USA Today, Oct 14, 2013 [H/t ICECAP]
Scientific Forecasts, Not Scenarios, For Climate Policy—Guest Post by J. Scott Armstrong
By J. Scott Armstrong, William Briggs Blog, Oct 25, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=9681
Defending the Orthodoxy
Claim: ‘[in]ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns’ is causing losses in third world countries
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 25, 2013
Link to special issue: Loss and damage from climate change
By Kees van der Geest and Koko Warner, editors, International Journal of Global warming, No date [H/t WUWT]
http://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticletoc.php?jcode=ijgw&year=2013&vol=5&issue=4
Claim: ‘climate change’ caused more deaths in Stockholm – but it may be due to flawed methodology
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 24, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/24/claim-climate-change-caused-more-deaths-in-stockholm/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Alarmists Seek Shelter From Public Storm
By Dennis Mitchell and David Legates, IBD, Oct 16, 2013
Computer Games and Global Warming
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Oct 17, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/10/computer_games_and_global_warming.html
Age of Climate Alarmism Is Coming to an End
By Jim Lakely, Washington Examiner, Oct 20, 2013
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2013/10/20/age_of_climate_alarmism_is_coming_to_an_end_318221.html
Those chiefly incurious chief scientists
By John Happs, Quadrant, Oct 20, 2013
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/10/chiefly-incurious-chief-scientists/
[SEPP Comment: A review of past errors and deceptions by the IPCC, of which the chief scientists were blissfully unaware or ignored.]
The UN IPCC’s Climate Modeling Procedures Need Serious Remodeling
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 22, 2013
Would you go ahead with an international flight operated by an obscure airline if you overheard two of the ground crew discussing how the pilot had skipped 80 percent of the pre-flight safety checklist?
Link to paper: Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making
By Green, Armstrong, and Soon, International Journal of Forecasting, 2009
http://www.kestencgreen.com/gas-2009-validity.pdf
Getting very close to meeting Santer’s 17 year warming test
RSS: no global warming for 16 years 11 months
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Oct 23, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/23/getting-very-close-to-meeting-santers-17-year-warming-test/
Increasing Clouds and Thunderstorms For Climate Alarmists
By Paul Driessen and Madhav Khandekar, Townhall. Oct 20, 2013
New UN Climate Report Ignores Reality
By Tom Harris and Jay Lehr, Canada Free Press, Oct 25, 2013
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/58823
Spinning the climate model-observations comparison. Part III
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 13, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/13/spinning-the-climate-model-observations-comparison-part-iii/
JC summary: Sure makes the Mora et al ‘we are toast by 2047′ argument, based on climate model projections, look pretty far off the mark.
The IPCC Report as Ink Blot Test
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Oct 15, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/10/15/the-ipcc-report-as-ink-blot-test/
[SEPP Comment: An amusing take on the UN’s subprime effort.]
Social Benefits of Carbon
The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide: Estimating the Monetary Benefits of Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Global Food Production
By Craig Idso, CO2 Science, Oct 21, 2013
The net benefits of climate change till 2080
Few people know that warming is doing more good than harm
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 18, 2013
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-probable-net-benefits-of-climate-change-till-2080.aspx
Why climate change is good for the world
Don’t panic! The scientific consensus is that warmer temperatures do more good than harm
By Matt Ridley, Spectator, Oct 19, 2013
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9057151/carry-on-warming/
A response to my critics on global warming
By Matt Ridley, Spectator, Oct 25, 2013
Greening of the Earth in Europe
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Oct 16, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/greening_of_the_earth_in_europe.html
Greening the Globe with CO2
By Viv Forbes, Carbon Sense, Oct 22, 2013
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/greening-the-globe.pdf
Seeking a Common Ground
A Better World Is Here
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Oct 16, 2013
Bjorn Lomborg: Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life
Ignore the doomsters: on nearly every measure our planet is getting fairer, healthier and safer
By Bjorn Lomborg, The Times, Via GWPF, Oct 19, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/bjorn-lomborg-bright-side-life/
Global warming: a trojan horse of modernity?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 15, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/15/global-warming-a-trojan-horse-of-modernity/
[SEPP Comment: Opening a philosophical discussion.]
Hubert Lamb and the assimilation of legendary ancient Russian winters
By Bernie Lewin, Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science, Sep 22, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A second in a series exploring how certain graphs on about global warming and cooling over the past 1000 years came about as depicted in the IPCC reports.]
Lowering Standards
Fake Paper Exposes Failed Peer Review
The widespread acceptance of an atrocious manuscript, fabricated by an investigative journalist, reveals the near absence of quality at some journals.
By Kerry Grens, The Scientist, Oct 6, 2013 [H/t Catherine French]
Questioning European Green
Ruinous Green Energy Policy Threatens Millions of Families
By Benny Peiser, Mail, UK, Via GWPF, Oct 13, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/benny-peiser-ruinous-green-energy-policy-threatens-millions-families/
[SEPP Comment: The economic disasters of the 1970s, created by terrible public policy, are set to replay by terrible public policy.]
Facing facts on renewable energy
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 18, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/facing-facts-renewable-energy
Europe threatened by power outages this winter
Renewable energy is blamed for jeopardising Europe’s energy security this winter, a new study has found. EurActiv France reports.
By Staff Writers, EurActiv, Oct 14, 2013
http://www.euractiv.com/sustainability/power-outages-threaten-europe-news-531032
German Cities Face Ruin as Green Energy Transition Causes Havoc
By Staff Writer, Rheinische Post, Trans. Philipp Mueller, Oct 21, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/german-cities-face-ruin-green-energy-transition-havoc/
Germany’s Green Energies Lead To Skyrocketing Electricity Prices – Feed-In Rates Increase More Than 10-Fold!
Always more expensive, never cheaper– renewable energy feed-in tariffs to climb to 6.24 cents in 2014
By Rudolf Kipp, Science Skeptical, Trans. P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 18, 2013
Spain’s Green Dreams Blow Up
By David Paulin, American Thinker, Oct 23, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/10/spains_green_dreams_blow_up.html
British Pols Running Back Green Policies
By Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, Oct 23, 2013
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/10/23/british-pols-running-back-green-policies/
Baling out? Probably not
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 12, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/10/12/baling-out-probably-not.html
[SEPP Comment: Analyzing the reality of shifting political statements.]
Anger over German stance on auto CO2 emissions
By Staff Writers, Berlin (AFP), Oct 15, 2013
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Anger_over_German_stance_on_auto_CO2_emissions_999.html
Report: Green energy investment drops as ‘political will’ on climate falters
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 14, 2013
Link to report: World Clean Energy Investment Heads for Second Successive Annual Fall
By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, Oct 14, 2013
Watershed…Leading German Business Weekly Declares IPCC Science A Failure: “Time For A New Climate Policy”
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 20, 2013
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Coal will surpass oil as the key fuel for the global economy by 2020 despite government efforts to reduce carbon emissions
Economic growth in China and India are driving global demand for coal
Coal is plentiful and more affordable for both China and India
Coal demand in the U.S., Europe and rest of Asia will remain steady
By Helen Collis, Mail, UK, Oct 14, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Green Jobs
Another Green Flop, Cameron’s Green Jobs Promise Goes Up In Smoke
By Johathan Leake, Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Oct 20, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/green-flop-camerons-green-jobs-promise-smoke/
Funding Issues
How To Waste A Billion: Use It To Fight Global Warming
Editorial, IBD, Oct 23, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Global climate investment flatlines
By Staff Writer, EurActiv, Oct 22, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.euractiv.com/development-policy/global-climate-investment-flatli-news-531212
Link to report: Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2013
By Buchner, et al, Climate Policy Initiative, Oct 2013
Green Climate Fund meets amid cash problems
By Staff Writer, EurActiv, Oct 11, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.euractiv.com/development-policy/meeting-green-fund-amid-failure-news-530927
State Department official: Time to face ‘hard reality’ on climate aid
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 22, 2013
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
ABC plan to stop bushfires with windmills and buckets of your cash
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 22, 2013
Fuel Loads Not Climate Change Are Making Bushfires More Severe
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Oct 23, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/10/man-made-climate-change-and-bushfires-in-southeast-australia/
Australia, U.N. spar over wildfires and climate change
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Oct 23, 2013
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/us-climate-australia-wildfires-idUSBRE99M0U920131023
Unprecedented (?) Arctic warming
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Oct 25, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/25/unprecedented-arctic-warming/#more-13509
[SEPP Comment: Problems with extrapolation from one small set of data.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Los Angeles Times endorses censorship with ban on letters from climate skeptics
By Professor J. Scott Armstrong, Fox News, Oct 18, 2013
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Misinformation, disinformation and conflict
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 25, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/25/misinformation-disinformation-and-conflict/
The ongoing attack on global warming skeptics
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Oct 23, 2013
Alarmists losing so badly they are scared of letters to editors
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 17, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/10/alarmists-losing-so-badly-they-are-scared-of-letters-to-editors/
Al Gore says climate change deniers are ‘just nuts’
By Eric Dolan, Raw Story, Oct 23, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/10/23/al-gore-says-climate-change-deniers-are-just-nuts/
Models v. Observations
Maybe That IPCC 95% Certainty Was Correct After All
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 14, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/10/maybe-that-ipcc-95-certainty-was-correct-after-all/
Model Issues:
Feds Will Spend $18M to Develop ‘Reliable’ Climate Change Predictions
By Barbara Hollingsworth, CNS News, Oct 18, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to program solicitation: Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM)
NSF & USDA, Sep 23, 2013
http://www.nifa.usda.gov/fo/climatechange.cfm?pg=2
Changing Weather
New study shows Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature drive US tornado strength
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 17, 2013
[SEPP Comment: This association has been asserted by Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi for a number of years.]
Five dead as Cyclone Phailin hits India
By Staff Writers, RTE News, Oct 14, 2013
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1012/479951-india-cyclone-phailin/
Wind speeds reached at least 220km/h, and were expected to cause a 3.4m surge in sea levels when the storm hit the coast, the India Meteorological Department said
The US Navy’s weather service said wind at sea was gusting at 314km/h.
2013 – a year with minimal extreme weather events in the US
By Paul Dorian, SI Weather, Oct 18, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Atlantic hurricane season quietest in 45 years
By Tom Brown, Reuters, Oct 24, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.msn.com/science-technology/atlantic-hurricane-season-quietest-in-45-years
Changing Climate
AMO & PDO Cycles
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/21/amo-pdo-cycles/
New paper finds natural North Atlantic Oscillation controls Northern Hemisphere temperatures 15-20 years in advance
By Staff Writer, Hockey Schtick, Oct 12, 2013
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/new-paper-finds-natural-ocean.html
Link to paper: NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability
By Jianping Li, Cheng Sun, Fei-Fei Jin, Geophysical Research Letters, Oct 11, 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL057877/abstract
New study finds the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation controls tornado activity, not CO2
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Oct 17, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/new-study-finds-natural-pacific-decadal.html
Chylek et al 2013 shows a linkage between US Southwest climate and AMO/PDO cycles
By Anthony Watts WUWT, Oct 13, 2013
Link to paper: Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future
By Chylek et al. Springer, Sep 5, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/chylek-et-all-climdyn_us_sw.pdf
New paper finds the natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation controls North American temperatures via changes in cloud cover
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Oct 23, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/new-paper-finds-natural-pacific-decadal.html
Link to paper: Simulation of the PDO effect on the North America summer climate with emphasis on Mexico
By Mendoza et al, Atmospheric Research, Oct 19, 2013
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513002834
New paper finds summer temperatures in the year 2000 were about the same as during Medieval & Roman warm periods
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Oct 22, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/new-paper-finds-summer-temperatures-in.html
Link to paper: Testing long-term summer temperature reconstruction based on maximum density chronologies obtained by reanalysis of tree-ring datasets from northernmost Sweden and Finland
By V. V. Matskovsky and S. Helama, Climate of the Past, Oct 23, 2013
http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/9/5659/2013/cpd-9-5659-2013.html
[SEPP Comment: The summers in Sweden and Finland today are no warmer today than in past warm periods, and may be cooler. This finding is important because most of the late 20th century warming occurred in the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere, including Sweden and Finland.]
Changing Seas
Caribbean Water
By Rud Istvan, Climate Etc. Oct 19, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/19/caribbean-water/
[SEPP Comment: Salt water intrusion from ground water depletion are not a significant problem in mountainous islands.]
Who’s afraid of sea-level rise?
By Bryce Wilkinson, National Business Review, Oct 11, 2013 [H/t Barry Brill]
http://nzinitiative.org.nz/Media/Opinion+and+commentary/Whos+afraid+of+sea-level+rise.html
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Fears Of Polar Icecaps Melting Are Overblown, Study Says [NIPCC Report]
By Isaac Orr, IBD, Oct 23, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
A new record: the most sea ice in Antarctica in 30 years by extent and by volume
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 24, 2013
Antarctic Ice Sets New All Time Record In October
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Spiegel Surprised By “Amazingly Robust”, Record Antarctic Sea Ice – NASA’s Walt Meier Bewildered, Can Only Speculate
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 22, 2013
Media Advisory: Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for 2013
Press Release, NSIDC, Sep 20, 2013
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2013_arcticseaiceminimum_PR.html
September sea ice ballyhoo and why it doesn’t matter to polar bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 20, 2013
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
CMIP5 Backward Projections of Temperature and Precipitation
Reference: Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kinter III, J.L. and Niyogi, D. 2013. Evaluation of temperature and precipitation trends and long-term persistence in CMIP5 twentieth-century climate simulations. Journal of Climate 26: 4168-4185.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/15oct2013a2.html
Clearly, the best climate models of the present day are still not up to doing what we really need them to do to be of much service. In fact, they could potentially be leading us in a direction we may soon find to actually be detrimental to the well-being of the biosphere, including ourselves.
Declining Diurnal Temperature Range Increases Human Longevity
Reference: Yang, J., Liu, H.-Z., Ou, C.-Q., Lin, G.-Z., Zhou, Q., Shen, G.-C., Chen, P.-Y. and Guo, Y. 2013. Global climate change: Impact of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Guangzhou, China. Environmental Pollution 175: 131-136.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/15oct2013a4.html
Larval & Post-Larval Responses of Pacific Oysters to Elevated CO2
Reference: Ginger, K.W.K., Vera, C.B.S., Dineshram, R., Dennis, C.K.S., Adela, L.J., Yu, Z. and Thiyagarajan, V. 2013. Larval and post-larval stages of Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) are resistant to elevated CO2. PLoS ONE 8: e64147.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/22oct2013a1.html
(1) “mean survival and growth rates were not affected by pH,” that (2) “the metabolic, feeding and metamorphosis rates of pediveliger larvae were similar, between pH 8.1 and 7.7,” that (3) “the pediveligers at pH 7.4 showed reduced weight-specific metabolic and filtration rates, yet were able to sustain a more rapid post-settlement growth rate,” and that (4) “no evidence suggested that low pH treatments resulted in alterations to the shell ultra-structures or elemental compositions (i.e., Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios).”
A 1500-Year History of Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Activity
Reference: Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V.J., Rasmussen, J.B.T., Burns, S.J. and Lachniet, M. 2013. Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 110: 9651-9656.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/oct/22oct2013a4.html
Litigation Issues
Supreme Court to Review EPA Greenhouse Rule: What If Petitioners Win — or Lose?
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Oct 16, 2013
Supreme Court Misses Chance To Get CO2 Science Right
Editorial, IBD, Oct 16, 2013
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Google’s Green Energy Brag: $375 Million from Taxpayers (or more)
By Glenn Schleede, Master Resource, Oct 22, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/10/google-green-play-375-million-dollars/#more-28123
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA to “listen” to (then presumably ignore) the public on power plant CO2 emissions
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 22, 2013
Cities and dates for EPA hearings on new power plant rules.
EPA’s Gina McCarthy wants to be potentate of private property in America
Editorial, Washington Examiner, Oct 20, 2013
Energy Issues – Non-US
Offshore white elephants
Britain leads the world in offshore wind — because nobody else is so foolish
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 18, 2013
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/offshore-white-elephants.aspx
[SEPP Comment: One nation must take the lead in international stupidity.]
Energy Issues — US
America’s Energy Future: Greater Independence
By H. Sterling Burnett, Jewish Policy Center, Fall 2013
http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4661/energy-independence
EPA, EIA: Power Plant Carbon Emissions Saw Drastic Drop in 2012 (UPDATED)
By Gail Reitenbach, Power News, Oct 22, 2013
Green Pick Pockets
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 25, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/10/25/green-pick-pockets/
Study: Wind Power Costs Taxpayers Billions of Dollars
By Katie Pavilich, Townhall, Oct 15, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to study: Assessing Wind Power Cost Estimates
By Michael Giberson, Center for Energy Commerce, Oct 2013
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Giberson-study-Final.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Estimates of cost beyond the developer cost to include grid reliability issues.]
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions fall in 2012
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Oct 21, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/329699-doe-carbon-dioxide-emissions-declined-in-2012
Link to report: U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2012
By Staff Writers, EIA, Oct 21, 2013
http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/
Washington’s Control of Energy
Who is Heather Zichal?
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 14, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/10/who-is-heather-zichal.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Thanks to Natural Gas and Climate Change, U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Continue Downward Trend
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Oct 23, 2013
Can a few anti-frackers hold back the tide of progress?
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Oct 24, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/10/can-anti-frackers-hold-back-tide-progress/
Green California Gives Its OK To Fracking As Safe
Editorial, IBD, Oct 21, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Return of King Coal?
Big(ger) coal
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Oct 15, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/15/bigger-coal/
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Report: Pipelines pose fewer risks than trains or trucks in carrying oil
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Oct 17, 2013
Link to the report: Intermodal Safety in the Transport of Oil
By Diana Furchtgott-Roth and Kenneth P. Green, Fraser Institute, Oct 2013
Deepwater Horizon — The Government’s Involvement
By Bruce Thompson, American Thinker, Oct 17, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/10/deepwater_horizon_-_the_governments_involvement.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Don’t fear the radiation!
By Staff Writer, ACSH, Oct 22, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/10/dont-fear-radiation/
Fear vs. Radiation: The Mismatch
By David Ropeik, Op-Ed, NYT, Oct 21, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/22/opinion/fear-vs-radiation-the-mismatch.html?_r=1&
Nuclear rebirth? [In UK]
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Oct 25, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/nuclear-rebirth
The first thing to note is that the [2020s] strike price is currently lower than the 2014 prices for onshore wind (£100 per MWh), offshore wind (£155/MWh), biomass (£105/MWh) or solar (£125/MWh), although higher than the expected £55/MWh for electricity generated from coal or gas.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Big Wind’s Dirty Little Secret: Toxic Lakes and Radioactive Waste
By Travis Fisher and Alex Fitzsimmons, IER, Oct 23, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/58783
[SEPP Comment: The hidden side of green, not so clean, energy.]
Chambers of Commerce Falsely Promote Windpower (might be repeated in your local)
By Glenn Schleede, Master Resource, Oct 15, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/10/misleading-claims-wind-local-chambers/#more-28061
A Conservative, Biblical Case for Windpower? (a red-state, Tea Party strategy at work)
By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Oct 21, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/10/red-state-wind-strategy/#more-28134
[SEPP Comment: Regardless of the political position of the advocate, the arguments for wind power remain weak.]
$0.11/kWh: Why Wind Is More Expensive than Advertised
By Michael Giberson, Master Resource, Oct 18, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/10/11-cents-kwh-wind/#more-28090
The Great American Wind Power Fraud
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 21, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-great-american-wind-power-fraud.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Get Rid of Ethanol Exchanges Too
By Marita Noon, Townhall, Oct 13, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Latest on Algae
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 22, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/10/22/latest-on-algae/
Carbon Schemes
Carbon capture and storage: The Edsel of energy policies
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Oct 15, 2013
[SEPP Comment: CCS makes no financial sense!]
California Dreaming
California approves energy storage goal
By Staff Writers, Sacramento (UPI), Oct 18, 2013
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/California_approves_energy_storage_goal_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Typical California regulators: when in doubt, regulate. Do not be concerned with messy facts such as the technology has not been developed and the costs may be staggering.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
The New York Times takes your breath away
By Staff Writer, ACSH, Oct 16, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/10/the-new-york-times-takes-your-breath-away/
Environmental Industry
Junk Science Attacks On Important Products And Technologies Diminish Us All
By Henry Miller, Forbes, Oct 23, 2013
Broken-Window Environmentalism
By Robert T. Smith, American Thinker, Oct 25, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/10/broken-window_environmentalism.html
Chevron’s landmark lawsuit exposes ‘greenmail’
By Phelim McAleer, New York Post, Oct 14, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://nypost.com/2013/10/14/chevrons-landmark-lawsuit-exposes-greenmail/
Other Scientific News
Useless Peer Review?
A study shows that the methods by which scientists evaluate each other’s work are error-prone and poor at measuring merit.
By Abby Olena, The Scientist, Oct 15, 2013 [H/t Catherine French]
http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/37878/title/Useless-Peer-Review-/
How science goes wrong
Scientific research has changed the world. Now it needs to change itself
Editorial, The Economist, Oct 19, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
How climate change affects microbial life below the seafloor
The international drilling vessel JOIDES Resolution. Image courtesy IODP.org.
By Staff Writers, Bremen, Germany (SPX), Oct 25, 2013
Trouble at the lab
Scientists like to think of science as self-correcting. To an alarming degree, it is not
Editorial, The Economist, Oct 19, 2013 [H/t Roger Cohen]
[SEPP Comment: The vexing problem of false positives. Reporting of negative results would be of significant value, but usually not publishable.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Korean Utility Plans First Underground Combined Cycle Power Plant
By Thomas Overton, Power News, Oct 21, 2013
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Australia Antarctic mission focuses on penguin poo, warming
By Staff Writers, Sydney (AFP), Oct 15, 2013
Climate Craziness of the Week: Plants blamed for us not roasting since 1950
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 16, 2013
Study links warmer water temperatures to greater levels of mercury in fish
By Darryl Fears, Washington Post, Oct 13, 2013 [H/t Conrad Potemra]
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Australian fires : Attempts have been made to link the recent fires in NSW to global warming. There is indeed a correlation (sort of): the fires are no worse (and no earlier) than those of the past, and the globe hasn’t warmed for at least a decade and a half. The only supposedly significant thing to have changed is the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has gone up markedly. Perhaps it’s worth noting, for those not familiar with the science, that CO2 is used to put fires out.
What a reading list- and not a word supporting the warmist idealogues.
With regard to Matt Ridley’s comments on the stupidity of our government and their offshore windmills. The problem is not as simplistic as Mr Ridley states in his article, the root of the problem is the EU, which has produced legislation forcing us to generate increasing amounts of electricity from renewable sources, if we don’t we will have to pay ever-increasing fines. This is why the government are building the first of what will be many nuclear power stations. Of course the government don’t want us to know how much of our sovereignty has been handed over to the EU!
If there is only one good reason (believe me, there are many more) to leave the EU, this is the one!
What makes me truly ill, is that the money spent on all of this so-called reasearch could have benefited a lot of people in very many ways.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jan/30/wind-turbine-blown-down-devon
And the Royal Society, the American Physical Society, Old Uncle Tom Cobbley and All are taking absolutely no notice whatsoever.
Jim Cripwell:
At October 28, 2013 at 3:45 am you say
Yes, and the above report provides a link to an update of the paper by Richard Lindzen that explains why (I have often linked earlier versions of it from WUWT). It is a shocking read which names names.
To save you searching for it, I copy the link from the above report to here
http://globalresearch.ca/climate-science-is-it-currently-designed-to-answer-questions/16330
Richard
Thank you Richard for the link. I have glanced at it, but have not, as yet, read it in detail. But surely this merely vividly illustrates what is wrong, without actually DOING something about it. It is all very well WRITING long articles about how science has been corrupted by CAGW, but no-one is actually DOING anything about it.
When will someone who matters actually DO something, instead of WRITING about the problem?
Jim Cripwell:
Thankyou for your reply to me at October 28, 2013 at 4:35 am. You ask
Who and what do you suggest?
Please note that I am addressing – and not avoiding – your question although I have answered your question with a question. I explain this as follows.
The problem is two-fold. Firstly, the Executives of the Institutions have been systematically usurped (as explained in the link you say you intend to read). And, secondly, those Executives make statements without consulting the Members of their Institutions.
Some people have made public resignations from Institutions but to no effect. For example, this is how the APS responded to the public resignation letter from Hal Lewis when he resigned from the APS
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/13/aps-responds-deconstructing-the-aps-response-to-dr-hal-lewis-resignation/
So, at present, the only available action I can see is to publicise the problem because the problem cannot be corrected until enough people know about it and care about it. In other words, the only available action is what you call “WRITING about the problem”.
Hence, my question to you.
Richard
Thank you Richard for your thoughtful reply. I am at a loss to make many concrete suggestions. The only one I can think of is for Princeton University to come out with an official statement, backed by the full authority of the University, which, on the subject of CAGW, says exactly the opposite of what the RS and APS say. Of course, I am thinking of Ken Haapala. At least then, we would have backing of one academic institution in our corner.
But I am merely one person. If I have explained the problem to you, maybe there are others who can think up better things than I can, to actually do.
Reading the GWPF offering this morning, the Tories in the UK are in turmoil on green energy subsidies, following PMQs on Wednesday. Surely, by this time there should be at least on British MP who matters, and who WANTS to believe that CGAW is a load of nonsense. If that MP could be located, maybe he could be persuaded to DO something.
Jim Cripwell:
re your post at October 28, 2013 at 6:11 am .
The Commons Select Committee on Energy and Climate Change is scheduled to interrogate executives of the ‘Big Seven’ UK power companies tomorrow. So, in my opinion, we need to ‘hang fire’ for one more day before making any moves on UK energy and climate policies.
The Tory government is in power because the Liberals are being their lap-dogs, and the split on renewable energy subsidies threatens to destroy their so-called coalition.
The UK started the AGW-scare
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/09/12/richard-courtney-the-history-of-the-global-warming-scare/
and, therefore, a reversal of policy by the UK could have significant effects elsewhere. That reversal is now a possibility but needs to have the Labour Party also abandon support for ‘green’ levies because that would make the Liberals irrelevant to the issue.
As I said, we need to wait another day or two before deciding on any lobbying.
Richard
PS. Hopefully Phil’s Dad is aware of the support he can expect from Brits among the WUWT community.
Further thoughts. If Princeton could be persuaded to make a statement, maybe Georgia Tech would follow. At the moment, Judith Curry is, understandably, unwilling to take any drastic action.
“The big difference was massive, timely evacuation of those living along the coast, which is what the US failed to do with Katrina”
Poor George W called both the Governor of Louisiana and the Mayor of New Orleans and suggested that they evacuate New Orleans. Being among the Elite of the Democrat Party, they were NOT going to let some stupid red neck tell THEM what to do. So….when the people of New Orleans started to drown, School Bus Nagan (the Chocolate City Mayor) had a fleet of school busses under water. Ooops!
These United States are a Federal Republic. Kathleen Blanco and Ray Nagan were the officials elected to be in charge during the hurricane. It was the refusal of Democrat elected officials to evacuate New Orleans that caused the tragic deaths; it was NOT a failure of these United States.
Somehow, it became George W’s fault.
Regards,
Steamboat Jack (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)
=======================================================
GW was also blamed for a slow response by the Feds but the Feds’ hands were legally tied until the state and local officials asked them to help.
Those hands should be tied. (That’s what that little thing called “The Bill of Rights” is all about.) Through ignorance of the law or incompetence the state and local officials never asked for help in a timely manner.