The WUWT Hot Sheet for Wednesday October 23

WUWT_hot_sheet2

Gore’s 24 hours of climate reality gets panned by greens and scientists alike.

Mr. Gore bases his activism on several key points, all of which are either wrong or unknown. The red text in the boxes below summarizes positions taken by Mr. Gore. The corrections of ICSC scientists follow each box. More.

Al Gore’s “24 Hours of Reality” is backwards | Scoop News
ICSC Energy Issues Advisor Bryan Leyland of New Zealand said, “Gore says we must focus on reality. Reality says that the world has not warmed for the last 17 years even as carbon dioxide, the gas Gore blames for climate disruption, has risen 8%. Reality says that we are near a record low for hurricanes, and other extreme weather is not generally increasing in severity or frequency.”

Leyland concluded, “ICSC scientists explain here that Gore’s claims about science are either wrong or unknown.”

Dr. Ryan Maue:

And it seems they are playing fast and loose with viewer stats like they did last year…

…when numbers magically jumped. 

As for me, I forgot it was even on yesterday. That and lack of notice in the media shows just how much Gore’s shine has dulled. Oh and then there’s this:

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Awww…

Emotional letter from Greenpeace protester tells of rotting in Russian cell | Environment | The Guardian

It’s very cold now. It snowed last night. The blizzard blew my very poorly insulated window open and I had to sleep wearing my hat. I’m nervous about spending winter here. I have a radiator in my cell but it’s the Arctic breeze that makes the place very cold. I heard that from December Murmansk is dark for six weeks. God, I hope I’m out by then.

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Maybe his earlier work was a crock too?

A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs summer [June, July, August [JJA]] temperatures in Sweden and Finland over the past ~2,200 years and finds temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago and the Roman Warm Period 2,000 years ago were about the same as at the end of the 20th century. The paper also shows excellent agreement between the instrumental record since 1800 and the proxy reconstruction, unlike Michael Mann’s hockey stick “trick to hide the decline” in proxy temperatures after 1960. The paper adds to the published papers of over 1,200 scientists finding non-hockey sticks demonstrating that the Medieval Warm Period was global and as warm or warmer than the present.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/10/new-paper-finds-summer-temperatures-in.html

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Dan Tauke writes: A great article in the Economist last week regarding research papers often being wrong and the process not being self correcting – something that we have in spades in the climate arena: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble

Key takeaway paragraph here but good detail on the statistical errors in the article:

“Various factors contribute to the problem. Statistical mistakes are widespread. The peer reviewers who evaluate papers before journals commit to publishing them are much worse at spotting mistakes than they or others appreciate. Professional pressure, competition and ambition push scientists to publish more quickly than would be wise. A career structure which lays great stress on publishing copious papers exacerbates all these problems. “There is no cost to getting things wrong,” says Brian Nosek, a psychologist at the University of Virginia who has taken an interest in his discipline’s persistent errors. “The cost is not getting them published.” “

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Larry Ledwick writes: New modeling initiative by National Science Foundation to produce “reliable climate predictions”
http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=503399

The long-term goals of this solicitation are to improve on and extend current Earth System modeling capabilities to:

Achieve comprehensive, reliable global and regional predictions of decadal climate variability and change through advanced understanding of the coupled interactive physical, chemical, biological, and human processes that drive the climate system, including as they pertain to agriculture , forestry or land cover/use.
Quantify the impacts of climate variability and change on natural and human systems, and identify and quantify feedback loops.
Maximize the utility of available observational and model data for impact, vulnerability/resilience, and risk assessments through up/downscaling activities and uncertainty characterization.
Effectively translate climate predictions and associated uncertainties into the scientific basis for policy and management decisions related to human interventions and adaptation to the projected impacts of climate change.

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Tony Abbott accuses UN official of ‘talking through her hat’ on climate change

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has dismissed a UN assessment that the New South Wales fires are linked to climate change, accusing a senior UN official of “talking through her hat”.

Earlier this week, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, said the fires proved the world is “already paying the price of carbon”.

She also criticised the Abbott Government’s direct action plan to tackle climate change as being potentially “much more expensive” than the carbon pricing scheme that it is moving to dump.

But Mr Abbott argues that “fire is a part of the Australian experience” and not linked to climate change.

“The official in question is talking through her hat,” he told 3AW.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-23/tony-abbott-fires-climate-change-rfs-un/5039932

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56 Responses to The WUWT Hot Sheet for Wednesday October 23

  1. Bill Marsh says:

    Of course its about instituting a carbon tax. Gore stands to make millions from it.

  2. pat says:

    Sometimes people who talk to themselves really are crazy.

  3. George Lawson says:

    Mr Gore must be one of the most disgusting men who nearly became president.

  4. On the topic of Climate Disruption in the media: In the wee hours this morning here in the USofA I happened to hear a story about the wild fire in Australia on BBC. Normally they never miss an opportunity to beat the AGW drum. Non-scientists impacted by the fire were allowed to express contrary opinions. None of them thought CO2 had anything to do with the event. A pleasant surprise.

  5. Henry Galt says:

    Notes to ‘protester': Piracy is not cool. It is illegal all over the world. Russia got fed up with your idiocy. Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time.

  6. Viktor says:

    “human interventions and adaptation to the projected impacts of climate change.”
    http://climal.com/Environmental-Adaptation-Through-Technology.php

  7. 3x2 says:

    100% of content is about instituting carbon tax. Nothing else.

    Shocked I tell you. Gore pushing carbon trading while buying up beach front property and consuming more ‘dirty’ power in one speaking tour than a typical (out in the sticks) African village manages in ten years – whatever next?

    Remind me again to search google for the “Chicago Climate Exchange”. Seem to remember that a lot of current, and ex, politicians lost a lot of money on that one. Scamming %astards.

  8. policycritic says:

    The NYT unmasked Gore and his interests in this article:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/business/energy-environment/03gore.html

  9. Mickey Reno says:

    Jailed Greenpeace activist Ted: Dammit, Robert, you promised you’d get me out of here.

    Greenpeace Supervisor Robert: I assure you, Ted, that I’m doing my utmost to free you.

    Ted: It’s cold. The wind blew my cell window open last night. I had to sleep with my hat on.

    Robert: Oh, no, Ted. I assure you that it’s very warm up there right now. Haven’t you been reading your own organizational literature?

    Ted: What? You’re telling me it’s warm? That I’m warm?

    Robert: Yes, you should be warm… that’s why all the ice is melting up there.

    Ted: Robert, what kind of a effing idiot are you?….

    Robert: Ted, I’m beginning to feel like you’re not a true Greenpeace player. Do you want to be known as a denier?

    Ted: Eff you, Robert. You get me out of here, NOW and when I get back, I’m done. I’m finished doing your stupid pranks.

    Robert: I’m sorry to hear that, Ted. I thought I could count on you. By the way, the Russians consider what you did piracy on the open sea. I wish it was seen as just a “prank.”

    Ted: Eff me, what have I done…

  10. John Whitman says:

    Larry Ledwick writes: New modeling initiative by National Science Foundation to produce “reliable climate predictions”

    NSF says,

    “The long-term goals of this solicitation are to improve on and extend current Earth System modeling capabilities to:
    Achieve comprehensive, reliable global and regional predictions of decadal climate variability and change through advanced understanding of the coupled interactive physical, chemical, biological, and human processes that drive the climate system, including as they pertain to agriculture , forestry or land cover/use.

    . . .”

    – – – – – – – –

    Thank you, Larry Ledwick, for calling attention to the NSF article of solicitation.

    The NSF says in the lead paragraph of their solicitation,

    “The consequences of climate variability and change are becoming more immediate and profound than previously anticipated. Over recent decades, the world has witnessed the onset of prolonged droughts on several continents, increased frequency of floods, loss of agricultural and forest productivity, degraded ocean and permafrost ecosystems, global sea level rise and the rapid retreat of ice sheets and glaciers, loss of arctic sea ice, and changes in ocean currents. These important impacts highlight that climate variability and change can have significant effects on decadal and shorter time scales, with significant consequences for plant, animal, human, and physical systems.”

    So, the NSF has not acknowledged having critically reviewed the IPCC’s AR5 and has not acknowledged having monitored critical commentary in the science community and in the media. They are not recognizing the models broad based falsification nor the modeling failure to date as the basis of new modeling efforts.

    Congress should sequester all model funding until the NSF explicitly acknowledges existing model falsification and generic failure to date and the incorrectness of the general findings of the AR5. There should not be continued ‘as usual’ modeling efforts.

    John

  11. Chris C says:

    Russia has dropped the piracy charges and refiled as ‘hooliganism’.

  12. GlynnMhor says:

    Where did that GreanPeacer think he’d end up?

    In some tropical paradise like Guantanamo Bay?

    Only the US treats prisoners so nicely.

  13. Steve C says:

    Sad news.

    Just heard on the BBC news that the Greenpeace idiots will not now be charged with piracy, but instead with the lesser charge of hooliganism. It seems that we may now only hope for 7-year sentences.

  14. Jtom says:

    I hope someone tells Alexandra Harris that the cold and deprivation she is experiencing is the known outcome of not having cheap, reliable energy, such energy only made possible by the very thing she was protesting. Maybe Green Peace can send solar cells and a wind turbine to her to see how effective they are in that climate versus fossil fuels.

  15. Jeff L says:

    Gore has an ad on yahoo finance banner currently which has a video feed with all sorts of disasters & the banner of “the cost of carbon”.

    I guess there were never disasters before we started burning hydrocarbons /sarc

    Seriously, he underestimates the intelligence of society to think we will fall for this.

  16. The Sage says:

    There was one field of endeavour conspicuously absent from that Economist article about corrupted science, despite its track record of unverifiable modelling and spectacularly falsified prognostications.

  17. Adam Gallon says:

    The Ruskis have downgraded the charges from Piracy, to hooliganism. That’s only a 7 year stretch in a Gulag!

  18. philjourdan says:

    To Greenpeace – if you can’t do the time, don’t do the crime.

  19. JohnWho says:

    “… a senior UN official of “talking through her hat”.

    Uh, was she sitting on her hat at the time?

    :)

  20. JohnWho says:

    “Al Gore” = 6 letters

    “Stupid” = 6 letters

    Hmm… an inconvenient truth if there ever was one.

    :)

  21. wws says:

    Trying to come inbetween Vladimir Putin and his income stream ranks as one of the all-time brain dead activist moves of all time. They really thought he would play by western rules?

    hint: a sufficiently large payment, call it a “fine” and don’t dare use the word “ransom”, will spring them. That’s how this game works.

  22. JohnWho says:

    ” New modeling initiative by National Science Foundation to produce “reliable climate predictions”

    What?

    Producing unreliable climate predictions isn’t lucrative enough?

    :)

  23. Steven Mosher says:

    ‘A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs summer [June, July, August [JJA]] temperatures in Sweden and Finland over the past ~2,200 years and finds temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago and the Roman Warm Period 2,000 years ago were about the same as at the end of the 20th century. ”

    so whats the position on publishing papers openly for review?

  24. Madman2001 says:

    I have such mixed feelings concerning the Greenpeace folks. I feel bad for them being stuck in a Russian prison in Murmansk with winter closing in.

    But what were they thinking? Did they think that boarding the oil rig would have ANY effect on anything? Did they really think, particularly after the P. Riot trials, that the Russians would just politely tell them to leave?

    And what kinds of people have enough time and money to head up to the Russian Arctic for a stupid stunt like that?

  25. milodonharlani says:

    Madman2001 says:
    October 23, 2013 at 12:57 pm

    Good question. Among the 30 “arrested include American, Argentinian, Australian, Brazilian, British, Canadian, Danish, Dutch, Finnish, French, Italian, New Zealand, Swedish, Swiss, Polish, Russian, Turkish and Ukrainian citizens.”

  26. John Whitman says:

    Adam Gallon says:
    October 23, 2013 at 11:44 am

    The Ruskis have downgraded the charges from Piracy, to hooliganism. That’s only a 7 year stretch in a Gulag!

    – – – – – – – – –

    Well, I do not know anything about the Russian criminal legal system. But assuming any GP member is, within Russian due process, found guilty and sentenced to time in a Gulag, then surely the result will benefit the Gulag. It probably will be a greener place with more sustainability from any GP member time there. N’est ce pas? It surely would be a boon to the Gulag System’s climate change objectives.

    GP’s new slogan, ‘Our Gulag inmates are saving the Earth from climate change, one Gulag at a time.’ Hey, Arrest-Me-Hansen would endorse that king of slogan.

    John

  27. Gary Pearse says:

    _ After all the cash lathered on CAGW scientologists NSF has come to the conclusion we need models that will be useful for predictions. We actually need an early retirement plan for all world scientific institutions, universities and the like -throw in the Nobel Comintern, too (please).

    – Alex, yes it is miserable for sure in a cell without adequate heating and weather protection in a cold climate. However, you will probably be back to being spoiled in your warm middle class home in a couple of months. Give some thoughts about the the elderly poor in your own country who have a life sentence in the cold and stop complaining. Heck, in Winnipeg winters of the 50s, it was my shivering chore to jump up early in the morning in a freezing house and stoke up the coal burner we were happy to have. Your elderly poor are buying outdated encyclopedia and other large books at rummage sales for fuel, a practice brought on by Greenfreeze and other misanthropic outfits. They too, are “Trying very, very hard not to lose hope.” Stop being a useful idiot!

    -

  28. oldseadog says:

    I wonder if the Greenpeace crew member is still getting paid, since I take it that he didn’t have time to sign off the ship’s Articles before he was arrested.
    Once when I was Second Mate I was in Murmansk loading iron ore in January. It was dark, and it was so cold I not only had to wear a fur hat on deck, but fur boots, fur gloves and an ex-USArmy polar coat.
    But I was getting paid for it.
    If he is too then where is the beef?

  29. Gary Pearse says:

    Madman2001 says:
    October 23, 2013 at 12:57 pm

    “Did they really think, particularly after the P. Riot trials, that the Russians would just politely tell them to leave?”

    Actually they were given the opportunity. The coast guard boarded them, tossed the boat for weapons and contraband and then advised they were in Russian waters and told to turnabout and sail back to international waters.

    ” “They said dozens of times that they wanted to board our ship, that they wanted us to leave.”

    The Greenpeace crew went ahead and launched inflatable boats. At that point, crew members received another message.

    “The coast guard told us that if we didn’t let them board, they would use preventive fire — firing in front of the ship.”

    Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/greenpeace-says-it-has-left-russian-waters-under-threat-of-gunfire-1.1427362#ixzz2ia1ZZo8J

  30. John F. Hultquist says:

    Alex of Murmansk says “ I heard that from December Murmansk is dark for six weeks.

    I’ll bet she thinks Earth has winter because it is farther from the Sun.
    She wants a massage and she cries less.
    And she’s a Brit!
    Doesn’t sound like it.

  31. Latitude says:

    A paper under open review for Climate of the Past….

    At least they were generous and showed their uncertainties…

  32. M Courtney says:

    I wouldn’t wish a Russian jail cell on anyone.
    Have some sympathy, people. It is hardly a matter for scorn.

  33. George McFly......I'm your density says:

    go Tony Abbott!

  34. Latitude says:

    I wouldn’t wish a Russian jail cell on anyone….
    …Disney World was booked

  35. RichieP says:

    “M Courtney says:
    October 23, 2013 at 2:28 pm
    I wouldn’t wish a Russian jail cell on anyone.
    Have some sympathy, people. It is hardly a matter for scorn.”

    Why? They rammed the Russian coastguard boats without any regard for the safety of the crews on them. They could have killed those sailors. They knew exactly what they were going to do but were simply foolish and stupid enough to imagine that they were magic and immune from any serious reactions from the Russians, because of the rightness of their noble cause, of course.

    It’s not the first time they’ve done it; they are all adults; they are also fanatics; they chose to do what they did – and now they must face up to the consequences. I have no sympathy at all.

  36. Brian H says:

    M Courtney;
    On the contrary. The fuel-poor as a result of Greenpeace’s efforts deserve sympathy and help. Distinguish between malefactors and victims, please. May the Greenpeace pirates/hooligans rot in Murmansk for the full 7 yrs!

  37. John Whitman says:

    M Courtney on October 23, 2013 at 2:28 pm said,

    I wouldn’t wish a Russian jail cell on anyone.
    Have some sympathy, people. It is hardly a matter for scorn.

    – – – – – – – – –

    M Courtney,

    If GP members are sent to the Gulag, I think the contemptuous righteousness with which the GP perpetrators carried out their prima fascia illegal actions in Russian waters should righteously carry them through the Gulag undiminished in spirit.

    Think of it as them potentially going to a living martyrdom . . . everyone. When will they ever learn, when will they ever learn *** . . .

    *** folk song

    John

  38. Rhoda R says:

    Didn’t Greenpeace end up injuring some Japanese sailors a while back? Didn’t they end up in a Japanese jail then? Perhaps the Japanese would have done Greenpeace a favor if they’d kept the idiots rather than releasing them. The Russians aren’t Japanese.

  39. ATheoK says:

    “M Courtney says: October 23, 2013 at 2:28 pm

    I wouldn’t wish a Russian jail cell on anyone.
    Have some sympathy, people. It is hardly a matter for scorn.”

    You’re right, of course. I feel sorry for them…

    But they did attack the Russian rig, after warnings, after being told their acts were acts of piracy in Alaska and Canada.

    GP treated it as a joke and an adventure using it to excite their donors and members. GP also planned to try and interrupt fossil furl use in Russia, Northern and Eastern Europe. GP’s plan was to force millions to high fuel costs and conditions as cold as a Russian jail.

    I feel sorry for them; so sorry that I hope they plea bargain and get 15 years harvesting potatoes and winter vegetables in Siberia instead.

  40. RichieP says:

    The two links here show, first, the attack on the Japanese vessel. Quite how that can be described as ‘peaceful’ protest I don’t know. The second is the ramming of the smaller Russian coastguard boat in the most recent incident. Sympathy with people like this? You must be joking Mr. Courtney.

  41. Theo Goodwin says:

    They broke the law. They were detained by the authorities. They are in jail waiting trial.

    So, what is not totally ordinary about this? If we are going to moan and groan about the sad situation in which these people find themselves then are we going down to our local jail and extend our sympathies to similar people there?

  42. Patrick says:

    So, what we have here is a complex situation with Greenpeace and the Russian oil platform. There is Dutch maritime law (The Greenpeace ship is registered there in the Netherlands), international maritime law (If both countries were signatories in 1958) and Russian maritime law in effect (The oil platform/ships registered in Russia) . If the Russians were there legally, Greenpeace and the activists are going to lose any right to appeal…and rightly so. I don’t believe the Russians will get a conviction of piracy to stick, trespass maybe. But I do hope the Russians do get some form of conviction to stick, set an example. Greenpeace have for far too long got away with out right political and criminal behaviour. Greenpeace should head the warming given them in Auckland, New Zealand in 1985.

  43. Patrick says:

    Go check out Christiana Figueres science qualifications, specifically related to climate science. It’s an impressive list of exactly ZERO. Abbott was quite right to suggest she’s “talking through her hat”, although I had wished he’d been a bit more diplomatic about it, he is the PM of Australia after all.

    A major fire, State Mine, was stated by the Defence Services. 5 other fires across the NSW state were started by “youths” (Under 18), one of which was started by an 11 year old. That fire burnt 5000 hectares, shutdown highways and the airport in Newcastle, NSW.

  44. William McClenney says:

    A few kilometers down? Millions of degrees? Where, Al, on earth, does that occur? Death Valley? East African Rift? The Pacific Ring of Fire? The ferrous core?

    Sorry, Al. The only thing you have managed to scare me with is the potential for propagation of your genetic ilk.

    To the gene pool that fathoms not when they live: May the farce be with you……..

    Otherwise, enjoy this precious, normal little interglacial, while it lasts :-)

    Diss-claimer: “The transition (MIS 5e/5d) from the Last Interglacial (Eemian, Mikulino) to the Early Last Glacial (Early Weichselian, Early Valdai) is marked by at least two warming events……The pronounced climate and environment instability during the interglacial/glacial transition could be consistent with the assumption that it is about a natural phenomenon, characteristic for transitional stages.” http://eg.igras.ru/files/f.2010.04.14.12.53.54..5.pdf

  45. William McClenney says:

    The above link does not work. Wordmess is too smart to allow that. So step back, digitally, and surround the entire link from the end to the beginning, copy, and paste into another tab/window etc. Amazing how far we thought we had come…….

  46. Patrick says:

    Unbelievable. 4 more “youths”, two 8 year olds, and a 12 and 13 year olds have been charged with starting fires in NSW, Australia.

  47. Brian H says:

    That is a fine paper. Thanks.
    http://eg.igras.ru/files/f.2010.04.14.12.53.54..5.pdf
    Amazingly, all the dots in the address are necessary.

  48. Olaf Koenders says:

    It’s about time Greenpeace were brought back down to earth. I can’t fathom how they think they can just barge around the oceans inflicting their ideology on everyone sans consequence. They sorely need a lesson in Maritime Law and how not to ignore it. Suffer in yer jocks!

    They should be brought back to reality as well showing their incredible hypocrisy. Hopefully the guy at their fuel pump refuses to fill their tanks with the very stuff they’re protesting against. Let them try and ram ships using sails and solar panels instead.

    It’s the same hypocrisy the tree-huggers have. Hammer steel spikes into the trunks to damage chain saws that are lawfully being used to give those same tree-huggers their Tasmanian Oak dinner tables, bookcases, kitchen benchtops and floorboards. pathetic.

    /rant

  49. “M Courtney says:
    October 23, 2013 at 2:28 pm

    I wouldn’t wish a Russian jail cell on anyone.
    Have some sympathy, people. It is hardly a matter for scorn.”

    I think it is an absolute riot. ROTFLOL funny. Those Environmental fascists have been destroying this planet in more ways than one and it’s always other people that pay with their lives. This time the shoe is on the other foot and they finally get a taste of what they have forced other people through, especially the elderly with the massive increases in fuel costs just to survive.

    Greenpeace and those associated with it can all go to hell as far as I am concerned. They are well past their usefulness and now after deliberately breaking the laws of a country that does not subscribe to political correctness, they too can rot in prison until they have finally learnt a major lesson.

    You reap, what you sow.

  50. rogerknights says:

    The link below has two consecutive periods in it–that is probably why it doesn’t work:

    http://eg.igras.ru/files/f.2010.04.14.12.53.54..5.pdf

  51. Ric Werme says:

    rogerknights says:
    October 24, 2013 at 5:47 am

    >The link below has two consecutive periods in it–that is probably why it doesn’t work….

    http://eg.igras.ru/files/f.2010.04.14.12.53.54..5.pdf worked for me with the .. and not if I “fixed” it. The problem is that WP’s URL generator stopped copying the URL when it saw the “..”. My link should work for people.

  52. Jimbo says:

    It’s very cold now. It snowed last night. The blizzard blew my very poorly insulated window open and I had to sleep wearing my hat. I’m nervous about spending winter here. I have a radiator in my cell but it’s the Arctic breeze that makes the place very cold. I heard that from December Murmansk is dark for six weeks. God, I hope I’m out by then.

    You have been misinformed. The Arctic is warming faster than any place else. After a few years you will feel the runaway heat, you will be begging for air conditioning, you told me so. I believe you so please stay with the program and there is no get out of jail card free. Global warming cannot be denied and the Arctic is screaming after all. :-) Enjoy your jail time.

  53. ‘Talking through get hat’ ! Maybe, if she sits on her hat.

  54. Brian H says:

    Ric Werme;
    The two periods are indeed part of the URL, and work fine when it is copy-pasted.

  55. Brian H says:

    WordPress interprets the link wrongly; Copy-Paste the whole thing to “pdf” inclusive, including the two periods, and it works fine.

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