The WUWT Hotsheet for Tuesday Sept 24th, 2013

IPCC on the hotseat…

WUWT_hot_sheet8

IPCC Chairman Denies Global Warming Slowdown

Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the UN’s climate panel, dismissed suggestions of a slowdown in global warming. “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,” he told me. “I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase). I would like to draw your attention to the World Meteorological Organization which clearly stated on the basis of observations that the first decade of this century has been the warmest in recorded history. And I think the rest will be brought out by the report itself when it’s released.” –Roger Harrabin, BBC News, 23 September 2013

BBC_no_rise_1998

The imagery on the BBC 10 O’Clock News, 23 September 2013

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Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

IPCC-vs-GW_slowdown

 

Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary. The Ministry for the Environment’s identical stance: “Climate fluctuations that don’t last very long are not scientifically relevant.” Germany’s highest-ranking climate researcher, physicist Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, in Hamburg, is fighting back against this refusal to face facts. Marotzke, who is also president of the German Climate Consortium and Germany’s top scientific representative in Stockholm, promises, “We will address this subject head-on.” The IPCC, he says, must engage in discussion about the standstill in temperature rise. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

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“Climate policy needs the element of fear,” Ott openly admits. “Otherwise, no politician would take on this topic.” –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

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For a quarter of a century now, environmental activists have been issuing predictions in the vein of the Catholic Church, warning people of the coming greenhouse effect armageddon. Environmentalists bleakly predict global warming will usher in plagues of biblical dimensions — perpetual droughts, deluge-like floods and hurricanes of unprecedented force. The number of people who believe in such a coming apocalypse, however, has considerably decreased. A survey conducted on behalf of SPIEGEL found a dramatic shift in public opinion — Germans are losing their fear of climate change. While in 2006 a sizeable majority of 62 percent expressed a fear of global warning, that number has now become a minority of just 39 percent. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

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The Met Office method of predicting climate change contains flaws that cause it to overestimate the warming Britain will experience, according to a report by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. The conflict between computer model predictions and actual measurements of the temperature is being discussed this week in Stockholm by climate scientists and government officials from around the world. The IPCC’s summary is expected to include an admission that there are weaknesses in the results from computer models which appear at odds with the slowdown in the rate of global warming since 1998. –Ben Webster, The Times, 24 September 2013

==============================================================

The Met Office was unable to say yesterday how long the 15-year apparent pause in global warming would have to continue before it accepted its model was flawed. A spokesman said: “No date has been set at which point you’d say the models are wrong. Short-term fluctuations in global temperature do not invalidate models, or determine timelines for their development.” –Ben Webster, The Times, 24 September 2013

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has an image problem. It appears unsure how to regain the trust of voters and politicians, but not of the science it is supposed to assess. This week’s report is expected to conclude with more confidence than ever that humans have caused more than half the planet’s warming in the past 60 years. This may seem provocative in the circumstances, but the truth is that the real question for scientists now is not whether climate change is happening but how fast. So far there are only theories as to why the Earth has warmed so much slower in the past 15 years than some models predicted. The models may have been wrong. The scenarios inferred from them may have been alarmist. This much is clear: the IPCC must tackle head-on what it calls the “hiatus” in global warming, and follow the evidence rather than buckle to political pressure from either side of the debate. –The Times Editorial, 24 September 2013

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So, it’s come down to this — we now have widespread agreement from numerous true believers that the climate models — the only source of scary scenarios — are junk. But the true believers want us to take action on climate change regardless, out of prudence, on the mere possibility that the sky could be falling. It’s an “insurance policy,” Pindyck explains, with other true believers nodding in agreement. This is a peculiar species of insurance policy, one where the premiums that we’re being asked to pay total literally trillions of dollars, where the perils that we’re being protected against are ill- or undefined, and where — should any of the perils ever materialize — no benefits will be paid out to us policyholders. –Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, 24 September 2013

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Their fear is that the intergovernmental panel might be pulling punches.

It turns out that the Nobel Prize, welcome as it might have been back in 2007, served the same function it has for many other scientists who have won it over the years: it painted a fat target on the committee’s back. The group has been subjected to attack in recent years by climate skeptics. The intimidation tactics have included abusive language on blogs, comparisons to the Unabomber, e-mail hacking and even occasional death threats.

Who could blame the panel if it wound up erring on the side of scientific conservatism? Yet most citizens surely want something else from the group: an unvarnished analysis of the risks they face.

To be clear, even if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ends up sticking with the lowball numbers in these two instances, they are worrisome enough. As best scientists can tell, the question with sea level is not whether it is going to get to three feet and then five feet of increase, but merely whether it will happen in this century or the next.

A Climate Alarm, Too Muted for SomeJustin Gillis, NYTimes.com

h/t to Dr. Benny Peiser at The GWPF and Marc Morano for these sources

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99 Responses to The WUWT Hotsheet for Tuesday Sept 24th, 2013

  1. tadchem says:

    “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible” tells me that their *belief* is straying ever further from Reality.

  2. milodonharlani says:

    Hottest decade in recorded history? Well, yes, since the record starts in 1979.

    But if its the thermometer record, then, no, not based upon unadjusted data. That would be the 1930s, since the thermometer was invented during the depths of the Little Ice Age.

    If its on the paleoclimate proxy record, then no, not even close. Ten of thousands of decades have been warmer in the Holocene, to say nothing of millennia during the Eemian integlacial, the interglacials which preceded it during the Pleistocene, previously in the Pliocene, Miocene, Oligocene, Eocene & Paleocene Epochs, most if not all of the Mesozoic Era & most of the Paleozoic, with rare exceptions.

    Climate isn’t weather. Decades don’t have climate. Minimum time frame for “climate” is 30 years, but 300, 3000 or 30,000 is more like it.

  3. TomRude says:

    It’s funny to watch the same actors (bankers, media mogul, activists/scientists, journalists) rise as a chorus of doom… except now they are playing “naked”.

  4. dp says:

    Alone in a group that appears to be in denial of the observed reality, Pachauri seems most unreachable with non-modeled analyses, or what we call “data”. He would be the ultimate denier. His fiction appears to go beyond his porn writings straight to climate porn. Still fiction.

  5. TeeWee says:

    What is interesting is that the media (at least those sources Anthony included) do not echo the view voiced by Pachauri. New York Times excluded. Could responsible journalism (again, New York Times excluded) be emerging? Let’s see how the broadcast media plays up the story.

  6. philjourdan says:

    For the ESL and English impaired (Especially Pachauri). Warmest =/= Warming!

    It warmed to our current decade high. But that does not mean it is WARMING now.

    At the peak of the MWP, it was the “warmest decade on record”, but it did not continue to warm.

  7. Hari Seldon says:

    ‘There’s definitely an increase in our belief …

    say no more

  8. G. Karst says:

    Some may be wondering what has happened to Tim Flannery since fired down under:

    Australia Climate Council revived after being axed

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24216988

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott axed the Climate Commission, set up by the previous government, last week.

    But the group resurrected itself as the Climate Council, saying it hoped “Obama-style” public donations raised online would keep it open

    GK

  9. DirkH says:

    The German election has erased all kinds of climate skepticism and Euro skepticism from the German Bundestag – there were some pockets within the FDP which didn’t make it.
    (The reason for the collapse of the FDP is that they purged themselves from their own skeptics before the election; removing them from the list. So the only chance for skepticism in the new Bundestag was the new AfD anyway).

    As it stands, the Gleichschaltung is complete in Germany.

  10. wellingtonx1@btinternet.com says:

    The IPCC is a political organisation and I remain amazed that any adult with half a brain would ever even listen to a politician might say, I never did and I never would. Amazing statement “the models might be wrong” again why would anyone be surprised or ever take a computer model seriously, clearly there are some who do think that anything a computer spits out must be of a higher order and in the case of the climate backed up by God, who else? With just a tiny fraction of humanity willing to take any notice whatsoever of the IPCC and the number is dwindling, first Australia and now it appears the greens in Germany are struggling, China couldn’t care less, India is so far up sh.t creek it cant and the EU continues to export huge numbers of gas guzzlers across the planet to keep the EU alive and I am fairly sure that this wont stop any time soon. Beijing puts another 1500 cars on the road every day and there are now over 1 billion cars on the planet, Co2 what? The EU exports what the EPA call poison, Obama says anyone who emits more Co2 than is acceptable will be charged with a criminal offence and the EPA say Co2 must be reduced otherwise crops wont grow. The lunatics are running the asylum and the warders – the IPCC – are the cooperative flunkies of those who just want to sharpen up their environmentalist image for our consumption to persuade us that they are saving the planet by destroying it first. Five more years and they are toast, I might live that long to see them burn.

  11. gopal panicker says:

    cooling the last three years…get used to it

  12. Resourceguy says:

    Let’s see now the life support system for the EU economy and accountability of debt-based society depends on German leaders and now the accountability of climate science and carbon tax schemes depends on German insistence on accountability from the IPCC. Could we all just collect donations to give to Germany to manage the world in lieu of leaderless nations elsewhere.

  13. DirkH says:

    G. Karst says:
    September 24, 2013 at 8:45 am
    “But the group resurrected itself as the Climate Council, saying it hoped “Obama-style” public donations raised online would keep it open”

    Council, in Russian, is “Soviet”.

  14. ““There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,””

    What an interesting turn of phrase.

  15. DirkH says:

    Resourceguy says:
    September 24, 2013 at 8:56 am
    “and now the accountability of climate science and carbon tax schemes depends on German insistence on accountability from the IPCC. Could we all just collect donations to give to Germany to manage the world in lieu of leaderless nations elsewhere.”

    What? It is the German government – no matter which coalition; the Bundestag is now 100% warmist – that demands from the IPCC to remove all utterances about a pause in warming.

    And as for “leaderless”; well it really doesn’t matter which coalition now forms in Germany; they are all for a further dissolution of all EU nation states into one big undemocratic Eurocracy with no constitution – and EU justice trumps the constitutions of the member states already!

    The EU is the prototype for the intended world government.

    The next action of the German government will make sure the assets of the German citizens get evenly distributed across the Eurozone to keep the failing monster going for a little while longer.

  16. Latitude says:

    and temps stopped rising when CO2 should have had the most effect…..

  17. Taphonomic says:

    “I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase).”

    He should have stopped with “I don’t think.” Is Pachy now denying observational data that there is a hiatus in warming?

  18. Bob says:

    OMG, look how Suzuki embarrasses himself.

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3841115.htm

  19. Eustace Cranch says:

    Q: Which decade, in any temperature record set, is the warmest of the set?
    A: The last one, right before it starts cooling.

  20. Latitude says:

    Bob says:
    September 24, 2013 at 9:30 am
    OMG, look how Suzuki embarrasses himself.
    ====
    David Suzuki on the very first question is revealed as a complete know-nothing. His questioner tells him that the main climate data sets show no real warming for some 15 years.

    Suzuki asks for the references, which he should have known if he knew anything of the science.

    His questioner then lists them: UAH, RSS, HadCrut and GISS – four of the most basic measurement systems of global temperature.

    Suzuki asks what they are.

    (the updates at the bottom are even better)

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/suzuki_revealed_as_complete_know_nothing_by_very_first_question_on_qa/

  21. physics geek says:

    “I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase).”

    These are not the droids..oh, the heck with it. I’m tired of dealing with liars, buffoons and demagogues.

  22. Latimer Alder says:

    Delightful twist (even if unconscious) that the BBC lady in the picture is Fiona Bruce who also presents the popular Real Crime show – Crimewatch UK. Clearly typecast when reporting on IPCC matters.

  23. more soylent green! says:

    Money quote:

    “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,

    Well, if their beliefs are increasing, who are any of us to argue with that?

  24. Dodgy Geezer says:

    …Prime Minister Tony Abbott axed the Climate Commission, set up by the previous government, last week. But the group resurrected itself as the Climate Council, saying it hoped “Obama-style” public donations raised online would keep it open…

    Thanks for that! I needed a laugh at this point in the week…

  25. Brendan says:

    [snip - off topic - mod]

  26. SkepticGoneWild says:

    OMG. Pachauri is a total dumb***. Even if it is the warmest decade, the trend can still be zero. The guy is a total math idiot. Such stupidity.

  27. Dodgy Geezer says:

    @more soylent green!
    …Well, if their beliefs are increasing, who are any of us to argue with that?…

    IPCC Creed.
    (appointed to be read at Climate Conferences)

    I believe in Global Warming,
    which will destroy heaven and earth unless we change our ways.
    I believe in Al Gore,
    Who conceived the Internet
    and the hockey-stick graph, born of Professor Mann.
    It suffered under McIntyre and McKitrick,
    was crucified, disproven, and was buried.
    It was cast on the reject pile.
    On the third day It rose again.
    It was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,
    and is displayed in a prominent position in all IPCC literature.
    It will apply again as soon as global temperatures start rising.
    I believe in the CO2 tipping point,
    the IPCC Assessment Reports,
    a CO2 sensitivity figure of over 4 C/W,
    the accuracy of GCMS,
    an anthropic cause for all climate variation after 1970,
    and grants everlasting. AMEN.

  28. Bob says:

    Latitude, thanks for the update links. Imagine that he commands $30,000 per lecture. He is a total fraud.

  29. steven says:

    Our new energy sec. Edward Moniz testified before congress: “The evidence is overwhelming, the science is clear, and the threat from climate change is real and urgent. This is my judgment and it is the almost universal judgment of the scientific community.” He adds: “The basic science behind climate change is simple: greenhouse gases make the earth warmer, and we are emitting more and more of them into the atmosphere.”
    This guy is no buffoon like algore, but an actual nuclear physicist. Yet he would utter something so ridiculous as this?

  30. Doug Huffman says:

    Bob says: September 24, 2013 at 9:30 am “OMG, look how Suzuki embarrasses himself.” Suzuki was forever impeached as a witch doctor by his jape of Cassini/Huygens’ RTGs.

  31. Gunga Din says:

    Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures.

    ====================================================================
    Or perhaps just change them?
    As a follow up to this comment http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/23/access-the-leaked-ipcc-ar5-draft-summary-for-policymakers/#comment-1424991, I looked at the list of record highs for my area I obtained from the NWS in April of 2012.
    One record high was set in 2010.
    The list I obtained in July of 2012 has 8 record highs in 2010.
    No wonder people are getting so hot about Global Warming!

  32. mark wagner says:

    that whatever number of warmest years in whatever period are clustered around the peak should not be a surprise. that’s why it’s called a “peak.”

  33. KevinM says:

    Again the diagram supplied uses the “less CO2″ IPCC predictions of temperature with the “more C02″ while the world followed scenario, to “hide the decline” is confidence.

  34. Theo Goodwin says:

    “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible”

    Well, that settles it! Their beliefs have always been inadequate to the task and are doubly so now.

  35. Theo Goodwin says:

    Excellent “Hot Sheet,” Thanks.

  36. Kitefreak says:

    Latimer Alder says:
    September 24, 2013 at 9:54 am

    Delightful twist (even if unconscious) that the BBC lady in the picture is Fiona Bruce who also presents the popular Real Crime show – Crimewatch UK. Clearly typecast when reporting on IPCC matters.
    ——————————-
    Well spotted! I didn’t see the show as I don’t watch TV, but it’s a great image – love it!

    “Playing naked”…. they all are now – not just in the climate arena, either. They are getting away with it because people have been successfully conditioned to think it is normal (their leaders playing naked).Clever.. I think that’s called predictive programming. Sorry just looked that up on wikipedia – it’s a conspiracy theory.. what a f*in surprise!.

    Bottom line? They can keep on telling lies and get away with it. Maybe that image is the programmer’s – BBC’s – idea of a joke: no global warming for fifteen years and you’re still getting screwed. BWAHAAHAA, etc..

  37. Alan Robertson says:

    “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,” – Rajendra Pachauri
    _______________________
    FAIL

  38. Berényi Péter says:

    Rajendra Pachauri is not a scientist, he is a businessman, with massive conflicts of interest. Why would anyone listen to him?

    He is CEO (Director-General) of TERI, The Energy and Resources Institute (former Tata Energy and Resources Institute), which develops and sells intellectual property under the motto “Creating Innovative Solutions for a Sustainable Future”. As a huge private non profit research organization, with global reach now, it is heavily involved in politics all over the world while collecting fat funds from governments and government sponsored alternative energy corporations.

    Generating &. maintaining a carbon scare is in its prime interest, otherwise its resources may dry up. That’s what Mr. Pachauri is working on tirelessly under the auspices of the IPCC.

    This year TERI has been ranked first in the ICCG (International Center for Climate Governance) Climate Think Tank Ranking under the category “Absolute Global Rankings”.

  39. sophocles says:

    Pachauri says:
    There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,””
    ==================================================================
    Belief? Ah, where has the science and the scientific method gone?
    Belief requires religion …

    … and the Congregation of the Church of Climatology are still expressing
    the sentiments, and thinking, of the Witch Hunts of the 16th and 17th
    Centuries. No surprises (or changes) there.

    “Whenever something changes, it’s somebody[else]‘s fault.”

    This planet orbits its parent star, a variable star at that, deep in its
    atmosphere. TSI measured in visible and longer wavelengths is
    reasonably constant, but magnetic activity and UV (ultra violet)
    radiation (which plants just love, like CO2) fluctuate quite significantly.
    `Couldn’t possibly be anything to do with the sun … can’t see any
    changes there.’ Uh huh.

    But apart from a few stalwarts conducting real experimental science,
    all the other x-spurts (where x is ‘The Unknown Quantity’ and a ‘Spurt’
    is a drip under pressure) keep subscribing to Witch-Craft.

    I’ve had to top up on popcorn and beer. Ran a bit low recently but
    the drama is becoming interesting!

  40. The temperature trend from 1998-2012 has no rise , if anything a slight decline despite co2 increases.

    It is only going to get worse going forward as the prolonged solar minimum the real climate driver starts to exert more and more influence on the climate going forward.

  41. William McClenney says:

    The IPCC, the fool’s gold standard of climate science.

  42. Their belief appears to be inversely proportional to the supporting evidence. I would like to a graph of this anomaly in the final report. My model shows the AGW belief will soon reach a tipping point and run away if evidence continues to dwindle.

  43. Steven Hill says:

    He is correct, we are in a full blown ice adjusted by man’s activity. After this sun minimum cycle 24 and 25, the temps will sky rocket up 10-7C!!! ;-)

  44. Steven Hill says:

    ICE AGE that is…..right in the middle of it. ;-)

  45. goldminor says:

    TomRude says:
    September 24, 2013 at 8:29 am

    It’s funny to watch the same actors (bankers, media mogul, activists/scientists, journalists) rise as a chorus of doom… except now they are playing “naked”.
    ————————————————————————
    and it is not a pretty play to watch.

  46. CRS, DrPH says:

    This is an amusing essay about the folly of believing the AGW crowd and investing in sunken swimming pools…in Britain!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10138096/The-weather-prophets-should-be-chucked-in-the-deep-end.html

    They imagined the poolside parties they would have when the warming really kicked in: the barbecues; the bikinis; the pina coladas. They saw themselves on their lilos talking to their brokers on their mobile phones or getting up early on a glorious summer day and diving in unclothed when no one else was around. They thought they were doing the sensible thing and getting ready for a Californian lifestyle – and they were fools! Fools who believed that the global warming soothsayers really meant what they said or that they had a clue what the weather would be in the next 10 years.

  47. Resourceguy says:

    @Dirk
    Okay, Dirk has the details on Germany. There are a few loose ends though. The Greens polled only half of what they had been doing in the latest elections. And Merkel has now got to come to grips with the nuclear wind down and soaring energy costs and utility firms in chaos.

  48. Paul Pierett says:

    It is All About sunspot activity which the IPPC ignores.

  49. herkimer says:

    Pauchauri said
    “I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase)”
    Pauchauri earlier this year in an Australian interview clearly admitted the 16 year pause was real. Now under pressure he denies it . Resorting to lies is just another talent of these alarmists. When science fails , lie hoping that the public will not notice. How can anyone trust the rest of IPCC when its leader is untruthful.

  50. Billy Liar says:

    I think I must be related to Roger Harrabin, he’s ‘another Liar’.

  51. hunter says:

    We are not to beleive our lying our eyes, but rather the claims of the IPCC.

  52. Jimbo says:

    To see the BBC image and De Spiegel openly talking about the standstill is quite something. Warmists like to blame the sceptics but I say blame the standstill.

  53. Keitho says:

    Let’s wait and see what it says when it comes out on Friday.

  54. Jimbo says:

    Germans are losing their fear of climate change. While in 2006 a sizeable majority of 62 percent expressed a fear of global warning, that number has now become a minority of just 39 percent.

    Five cold hard winters does this. The darkest winter too recently. Yet some Germans recall they were promised milder, less snowy winters. Maybe this is the reason, they are finally coming to their senses concerning predictions.

  55. Jimbo says:

    The group has been subjected to attack in recent years by climate skeptics. The intimidation tactics have included abusive language on blogs, comparisons to the Unabomber, e-mail hacking and even occasional death threats.

    Pachauri > asbestos > rub > face. Pot calling kettle black.

  56. DirkH says:

    Resourceguy says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:28 pm
    “@Dirk
    Okay, Dirk has the details on Germany. There are a few loose ends though. The Greens polled only half of what they had been doing in the latest elections. And Merkel has now got to come to grips with the nuclear wind down and soaring energy costs and utility firms in chaos.”

    Merkel largely out-greened the Greens by proactively shutting down the nukes. What damaged the Greens more was that their boss Trittin tried to come across as a finance savvy leftist suggesting all kinds of new taxes to fix the Eurocrisis. He was keen on the finance minister job in a leftist coalition. Even for the German voters his tax hike suggestions proved too much, and Trittin made the Greens appear like the other two leftist parties.

    Maybe the first time in his life he was honest. He got punished for that – not that leftist voters don’t like tax hikes, they sure do; but now they had three identical parties to choose from.

    What didn’t help the Greens as well were a slew of media reports about their early 80ies attempts at legalizing “consensual” pedophilia.

  57. Resourceguy says:

    @Jimbo
    Yes, there will be many more harsh winters ahead. The long cycles that count are all turning down together. Populations will wish for a pause in place of global and regional temperature decline.

  58. Resourceguy says:

    @Dirk
    If Germans are this slow at being outraged by what Greens tried to do in the early 80s, it could take a long time to feel outrage over climate science fraud.

  59. Resourceguy says:

    We’re going to need a very large truth and reconciliation court along the lines of post-apartheid times in South Africa to wring out the abuses of global warming fraud. No doubt some of the worst offenders will try to get named to the court to help judge their former peers and condemn them. Others will retreat to their seaside estates built with corporate shakedowns, government grants, and other climate indulgences.

  60. Tim says:

    I’m no mathematician, but I would have expected that using Bayes theorem it must be possible to calculate the exact amount of evidence that would cause a posterior belief to change to 95% from whatever it was before. The IPCC should therefore be able to point to precisely the hypotheses and the outcomes of the experiments (natural or otherwise) that have caused them to update their prior beliefs…

    Am I missing something?

  61. Jimbo says:

    Resourceguy says:
    September 24, 2013 at 1:33 pm

    @Jimbo
    Yes, there will be many more harsh winters ahead. The long cycles that count are all turning down together. Populations will wish for a pause in place of global and regional temperature decline.

    If temperatures trend down from 1997 through to the next IPCC report it will be very interesting to hear what the new excuse will be. It would surely spell the end of the IPCC.

  62. Jimbo says:

    In the BBC link I see a graph referencing Marcott / Shakun. Roger Harrabin is a worried man fearing ridicule in the years ahead. I feel sorry for him as he contemplates tar and feather.

    http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70019000/gif/_70019040_1_temp_624.gif

  63. KNR says:

    ‘“There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,’

    Most if not all priest also believe god exist , but that does not mean they do. But put it another way ‘ we have increasing belief in the very thing that sustenance our existence ‘ who would not . But its not ‘science’ we see hear but religions like claims and the very human desire for self preservation at work. For ask yourself without AGW what would the head of the IPCC and ‘the team ‘ be ?

  64. Sweet Old Bob says:

    Ah, yes. Double Dees.DDs.Frequently drawing admiring attention! But…. the other kind of DDs… Data Den!ers..they get their own justly Deserved Disdain! DDs to you,IPCC!

  65. Kev-in-Uk says:

    Billy Liar says:
    September 24, 2013 at 12:46 pm
    Harrabin is just another pathetic imbecile totally incapable of independent thought or scientific questioning/reasoning. I feel dirty just writing his name, but then again, the BBC, the Met Office, CRU, etc – they are all the same – lying scumbags to a man (or woman)……but the worst part is……..THEY KNOW IT !!

  66. David Ball says:

    It was a child who pointed out that the Emperor had no clothes.

  67. Greg Goodman says:

    http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/24/hans-von-storch-on-warming-pause-fellow-scientists-are-very-hard-pressed-for-an-explanation/

    “warmist Ministry of Environment Dr. Harry Lehmann is asked if all the uncertainty is a problem for him. He responds with “yes and no“,…”

    That’s some kind of surrealist, philosophical joke, right ?

    ( thanks to J.Curry for the notricks link. )

  68. Dr Burns says:

    “Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the UN’s climate panel, dismissed suggestions of a slowdown in global warming. ”
    What would a railway engineer turned sex novelist know ?

  69. Adrian O says:

    It’s a cheap math trick.

    Your height, for instance is
    - the highest it has ever been, and
    - over the average (since the average includes you as a baby)

    However, you stopped growing decades ago.

    With numbers, in
    1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2
    the 2′s are over average, and the biggest numbers ever above.
    Yet they stopped growing….

  70. CC Squid says:

    The only thing that is preventing Climate Science from going the way that Dietary Science went in the 70′s is the internet.

    If the underlying science is wrong-and that possibility is implied by the lack of true consensus-then this tendency … to rationalize away all contradictory evidence will make it that much harder to get the science right. Once these authorities insist that a consensus exists , they will make it that much harder to get the science right. The Fat-Cholesterol Hypothesis, “Good Calories, Bad Calories, Gary Taubes.

  71. Bill H says:

    “We Believe”

    Well that settles it… ITS A RELIGION…!

  72. Olaf Koenders says:

    It’s probably already been mentioned, but I wonder how Hansen et al will explain their data tampering to suit the models now that the 17-odd year pause is recognised.

    Hopefully, they’ll all be jailed and let science be the tool of truth again.

  73. Anymoose says:

    Raj, I couldn’t care less what your belief is, and I am totally uninterested in what you think. This may come as a shock to you, but science is based upon real data and putting it together to explain how nature works.

  74. JJ says:

    Resourceguy says:

    We’re going to need a very large truth and reconciliation court along the lines of post-apartheid times in South Africa to wring out the abuses of global warming fraud.

    Screw that touchy feely crap. When this is done, those asshats need to be prosecuted, jailed, and their ill-gotten assets seized.

  75. DDP says:

    I hope Pachauri screams louder and louder from every rooftop he can find. The more he whines about it, and the more confidence he claims in it, the more people question the IPCC as an organisation, him being a fraud who has made money off unprovable IPCC claims, and a failed model driven hypothesis that has cost us billions in taxes for a problem that never existed.

    The media have an agenda, always have and always will, but they don’t like being taken for mugs furthering somebody else’s. Especially when it it politically driven and makes them look bad, and for viewers to point fingers at their role in propagating a myth..

  76. Rob says:

    ‘Nuts”

  77. SAMURAI says:

    I love how the Warmunistas have replaced the word warmING with warmER, given no warmING for the past 17 years. Are they going to change the name of their scam from Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global WarmING to Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global WarmER?

    If they were honest, they would…

    It’s absolutely hilarious to watch the Warmunistas dance the two-step waffle, which simply involves denyING the complete lack of warmING for 17 years and repeating their new idiotic mantra of, ” The last decade is warmEST decade in (fill in the blank) years.”

    For low-information cultists, such obfuscation passes for science. To anyone with a respect for the Scientific Method, it has you rolling on the floor laughing your frigging butt off.

    Dr. Pachauri should be fired. It’s painfully obvious that under his “leadership” the IPCC will never produce trustworthy scientific data. It’s become a political institution whose sole purpose is to be an apologist for the CAGW hypothesis and paid $billion to do so.

    Clueless and/or nefarious political hacks then use IPCC’s spurious data to implement insane “sustainable energy” (aka wasteful) policies that cost the world $trillions for absolutely no justifiable reason whatsoever.

    Call CAGW a hoax, a scam, a misunderstanding, a swindle, an honest mistake, etc., it doesn’t matter at this stage. It’s merely time to call call it OFF!

  78. galileonardo says:

    Rajendra Pachauri:
    I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase). I would like to draw your attention to the World Meteorological Organization which clearly stated on the basis of observations that the first decade of this century has been the warmest in recorded history. Speaking of warm, is it just me or is it getting hot in here?” [removes shirt and wipes brow with it]

    Sorry for the visual. I was channeling my inner romance novelist. As a writer and narrator of fiction, Raj is well prepared for his role as head of the IPCC, where a fictional account of our future is spun for global consumption, models marching down the runway disguised as reality. The real world’s a stubborn thing Raj and I’m afraid the Age of Alarmism is no longer in fashion. Too many folks have woken up to reality and it bodes not well for the Chicken Little routine. Underneath the layers of obfuscation and masked uncertainty is the naked truth: CO2 does not drive climate. Have a bite of that apple. Bitter? Who is the denier here folks?

    Since Raj raises the zombie “warmest decade in history” talking point, I reiterate my comment from a week ago when WUWT posted this story about the AR5 SPM. Using the IPCC decadal average graph of temperature anomalies since 1850 (Figure SPM.1), I once again board my CliMate-chine to gather some quotes from the past:

    Token alarmist, circa 1880:
    The decade of 1870 to 1880 has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850 and is the warmest on record.

    Token alarmist, circa 1930:
    The decade of 1920 to 1930 has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850 and is the warmest on record.

    Token alarmist, circa 1940:
    Each of the last two decades has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850 and the decade of 1930 to 1940 has been the warmest on record.

    Token alarmist, circa 1950:
    Each of the last three decades has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850 and the decade of 1940 to 1950 has been the warmest on record.

    There is nothing new under the sun. Cheers!

  79. Ron Van Wegen says:

    “For a quarter of a century now, environmental activists have been issuing predictions in the vein of the Catholic Church, warning people of the coming greenhouse effect armageddon.”

    Give me a break. That’s the Protestants.

    Oh, and you forgot to mention that those evil Catholics burned Galileo (very slowly), the “Father of Science” (trademark).

    You might care to read a little about Jean Buridan – “a French priest who sowed the seeds of the Copernican revolution in Europe.” (What?! You mean there were people doing ‘science’ before Galileo? Cease and Desist with that nonsense, sir!)

    And leave the Catholics alone. If it wasn’t for them there would be no science and the world would be Islamic. Would you have wanted that?

    Sigh. Climate scientists and journalists often seem to know so little else.

  80. Rob says:

    The lies and politics have failed. Nature, science and real data cannot longer be ignored.

  81. richard verney says:

    DirkH says:
    September 24, 2013 at 9:13 am
    ///////////////////////

    Germany appreciates that it has gone too far down the green/renewable road, and that this is causing and wil continue to cause significant uncompetiveness to its industrial base. This is a real concern to Germany which is the industrial powerhouse of Europe and relies on this as the mainstay of its economy (unlike for example the UK which is a service based economy) Germany is already losing its chemical industry (and Germany is a big player in this field) with chemical companies relocating to the US because they are energy intensive industries and energy proces in the US is low. This is causing loss of jobs, loss of tax revenues and increased welfare payments.

    The problem for Germany is that its high energy costs and uncompetiteveness will become more extreme if others do not follow suit. It needs other countries to press on with green/renewable energy policies so that those other countries are also saddled by high energy costs.

    The reasoning is simple; if all countries are saddled with high energy costs then suddenly German companies are not prejusticed by their own high energy costs and their competiveness is restored.

    So it is not so much that the German government believes in the global warming mantra, nor that they themselves consider that windfarms and solar and the like are the way forward, but rather unless everyone else adopts that expensive technology, Germany will be screwed. It is for this reason that Germany wishes to hide the pause. Not because it is not relevant, but rather they do not want to see anything which may encourage other countries not to commit economic suicide.

  82. richard verney says:

    Adrian O says:
    September 24, 2013 at 5:40 pm
    ///////////////////

    It may be a cheap maths trick, but the problem is that most people are not mathematically literate and do not immediately see through the ruse that it is.

    I suspect that many fall for the ruse, since if one does not give a second thought to what is being said it sounds reasonable and sensible, and this why it is the PR response of choice to the argument that warming has stopped. How often have you heard a reporter who interviews a scientist etc claiming that this is the warmest decade on recond retort by saying that means nothing when you get to the top of the hill you are always at the highest point. Even when you begin to descend the hill, you are higher than you were for say 90% of the time?

    I consider it to be a successful PR trick.

  83. A.D. Everard says:

    I’m a writer. I write science fiction. My science fiction is more honest than CAGW pseudo-science or any of the alarmist crap. At least I RESEARCH.

  84. Brian H says:

    The Precautionary Price makes Warming Woes look Wimpy.

  85. Brian H says:

    richard verney says:
    September 24, 2013 at 11:53 pm

    Germany will be screwed. It is for this reason that Germany wishes to hide the pause. Not because it is not relevant, but rather they do not want to see anything which may encourage other countries not to commit economic suicide.

    German efficiency will win the day even if others try to catch up. Or down?

  86. Colin Porter says:

    The woman in your picture at the BBC is Fiona Bruce. It seems apt that she should have the banner headline behind her stating “Global Warming. No rise since 1998″

    Fiona Bruce was the person who abused Anne Widdecombe, one of only five MPs who voted against the UK Climate Change Act, by saying that Widdecombe was a “Flat Earther.” I hope Fiona Bruce now has the decency to apologise.

    http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/ann-widdecombe/385446/Even-scientists-are-cooling-on-climate-change

  87. DirkH says:

    Resourceguy says:
    September 24, 2013 at 1:38 pm
    “@Dirk
    If Germans are this slow at being outraged by what Greens tried to do in the early 80s, it could take a long time to feel outrage over climate science fraud.”

    95% of Germans are brainwashed and irrational. When you challenge their belief systems they start calling you a Natsi, which is the current label for people with inkorrekt opinions. The Euroskeptic AfD was smeared in that way and several good friends suspected that I was a Natsi because I expressed my decision to vote for AfD. The ability to argue or think logically has largely been replaced with simple functioning in most Germans, and believing whatever the state media tell them.

    When the state media broadcast that Global Warming never happened the opinion of this majority of the population will switch 180 degrees. But not before that. The talking heads of the state broadcaster are the good friends and family members of the atheist Germans; and the dummy box their god.

    I wished I was joking but I’m not.

  88. Leo G says:

    The mid- 20th century warming hiatus lasted 3 decades and, before warming resumed, prompted Guy Callendar to concede his carbon dioxide theory of climate change had been shown to be false.
    If the same 30-year non-warming period with steadily increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide isn’t sufficient to falsify the reincarnated AGW theory, why should a more recent 15-year hiatus be sufficient?

  89. DirkH says:

    Leo G says:
    September 25, 2013 at 5:56 am
    “If the same 30-year non-warming period with steadily increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide isn’t sufficient to falsify the reincarnated AGW theory, why should a more recent 15-year hiatus be sufficient?”

    Who is the self-appointed judge over that, and why should we obey his orders?

  90. philjourdan says:

    @ DirkH says: September 24, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    What didn’t help the Greens as well were a slew of media reports about their early 80ies attempts at legalizing “consensual” pedophilia.

    Not that it surprises me, but do you have a source for that?

  91. Alex Mason says:

    Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary. The Ministry for the Environment’s identical stance: “Climate fluctuations that don’t last very long are not scientifically relevant.”

    no relevant, except when it shows what you want and then it suddenly is relevant. I.e. 17 years of no warming = not relevant. Similar number of years previous that show warming = relevant.

    Jokers.

  92. DirkH says:

    philjourdan says:
    September 25, 2013 at 6:33 am
    “Not that it surprises me, but do you have a source for that?”

    Many; just do a google search on news.google.de for
    Trittin Pädophilie
    or
    Volker Beck Pädophilie
    example:
    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/paedophilie-debatte-neue-vorwuerfe-gegen-volker-beck-12583033.html

    Basically what happened was that homosexuals entered the Green party during its founding and formed a “forum” and formulated a list of demands; which simply became part of the party program, key player was a Volker Beck.

  93. Jack Simmons says:

    Just wondering, how much money does the U.S. give to the UN to finance the IPCC?

  94. DirkH:

    Your post at September 25, 2013 at 7:33 am includes an unsubstantiated smear that homosexuals promote pedophilea.

    I am not aware that homosexuals have more tolerance of or predisposition to pedophile behaviour than any other sector of society. I am purely heterosexual but my homosexual friends show no signs of such proclivity.

    Richard

  95. DirkH says:

    richardscourtney says:
    September 25, 2013 at 8:12 am
    “Your post at September 25, 2013 at 7:33 am includes an unsubstantiated smear that homosexuals promote pedophilea.”

    I don’t know what gives you that idea. I am merely recounting the facts as they happened for those who are too lazy to use google translate to read through the evidence.

    Take it up with the German press.

  96. philjourdan says:

    @DirkH – Thanks for the link. It is frightening, but as I said, not surprising.

  97. martin m says:

    “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible”
    Belief DOES NOT EQUAL science. Which might just self-label IPCC as a non-scientific … “gathering”

  98. Brian H says:

    Almost all p are h, but not almost all h are p. Logic 102.

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