So very close but not quite – Humberto came within about 2 hours of beating the satellite era lateness record for formation of Atlantic hurricane, though it looks to me like NOAA was trying to beat the deadline by giving credence to estimates:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al09/al092013.discus.011.shtml
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013 CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.
Note that Gustav in 2002 was a much different hurricane, closer to the USA. Humberto probably won’t make it across the Atlantic before turning north and dissipating. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav_(2002)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/dis/al082002.discus.013.html
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Speaking of hurricanes, we are still in a major unprecedented hurricane drought in the USA- Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has updated his drought graph:
‘Of course, it could end this month (September) or after, but it will end sometime. Whenever it does it has been remarkable.’
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Steve McIntyre: IPCC and the end of summer
Though I haven’t posted for a while, I’ve done quite a bit of work on climate recently, though it hasn’t been the sort of work that lends itself readily to blog posts.
I made a presentation at a workshop session in Erice in the third week of August, which, at Chris Essex’ request, was entitled “Year in Review”, focusing on developments in proxy reconstructions. Ross McKitrick made a presentation with an identical title, covering other topics. I spent much of my time on the section on proxy reconstructions in the forthcoming IPCC report, as presaged in the Second Draft, a document which I’ve had for some time, but which I hadn’t yet parsed. In carrying out my own internal review, I re-examined the voluminous literature on individual proxies: ice cores, speleothems, ocean sediments as well as tree rings and “multi-proxy” reconstructions.
The review reminded me of conversations that I had with two prominent though then relatively early/mid-career climate scientists shortly before the announcement of AR4 in January 2007.
More: http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/11/ipcc-and-the-end-of-summer/
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Forbes: Terrifying Flat Global Temperature Crisis Threatens To Disrupt U.N. Climate Conference Agenda
‘Where, Oh Where, Has that Global Warming Gone?’ — ‘One highly plausible answer to this mystery is that the climate models upon which IPCC’s failed projections are based exaggerate climate sensitivity to CO2, underestimate known natural forcings, and simply don’t understand how to factor in and calibrate other influences such as ocean cycles and solar activity.’
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Climate at the heart of Abbott’s election victory « Australian Climate Madness
In the election of 2010, as climate alarmism’s downward spiral was well underway, Julia Gillard shackled her fortunes to the Greens, environmental extremists who demanded urgent action on climate as part of the deal to support Labor. Gillard was forced to break her pre-election promise on the introduction of a carbon [dioxide] tax, and from that moment, trust in her and Labor was gone.
Celebrate! Climate Commission to be abolished! « Australian Climate Madness
The hopelessly politicised Climate Commission, the function of which was apparently to spin government propaganda as “science”, is to be abolished, along with a raft of other pointless climate organisations.
Here’s how ACM reported some of the worst Climate Commission excesses
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Solar maximum and an almost spotless sun.
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The AGU turns to lobbying, this was in my Inbox this morning:
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Traveling today, light blogging expected – Anthony
It disgusts me when sequestration is described as “budget cuts” when all it does is slow the growth of spending. No agency’s/department’s/ budget – none – is funded at a level below the previous year’s.
Has anyone else notice the big drop in sunspots? My goodness, the sunspot area is down to 10
Oh cripes.I grew up on the Atlantic/Bay of Fundy coast through the late 50s,70s,and early 80s. When the remnants of a hurricane hit,we sat and gufawwed at our lower neighbours(we were 300′ ASL).But when they lost their homes,we went out, helped them re build,at a more suitable place,and carried on.They learned a good life lesson,and so did we,sans gubermint. How can I say shove CAGW up your butt,in a nice way?
The AGU, confused about how science works, seems to be also confused about how budgets work.
Sequestration was President Obama’s idea.
mkelly says:
September 11, 2013 at 11:44 am
Sequestration was President Obama’s idea.
Yes it was. I’d settle for s budget but we all know that won’t happen.
Re Humberto, less of this Dvorak blah-di-blah. Show me data from an aeroplane flying through it at an altitude of 100 feet, and then if the extrapolation gives 74mph at 30 feet we can start calling it a hurricane.
Of course tomorrow it might strengthen into an indubitable hurricane, but for now it’s, well, dubitable.
Rich.
So, the AGU has hired a PR/Fundraiser person. Apparently, the AGU believes that when the AGU talks people listen. Why would anyone think that?
“In the election of 2010, as climate alarmism’s downward spiral was well underway, Julia Gillard shackled her fortunes to the Greens, environmental extremists who demanded urgent action on climate as part of the deal to support Labor. Gillard was forced to break her pre-election promise on the introduction of a carbon [dioxide] tax, and from that moment, trust in her and Labor was gone.”
*
Get it right. Gillard was not FORCED to break her pre-election promise. If you are forced to do something, you hate it, you do it reluctantly and with remorse. You don’t gleefully lock it into place with red tape, as she did the carbon tax, promising to fix it into place so as to make it very hard to be undone. You don’t announce to the world that it is your highest achievement while Prime Minister.
Don’t cut Gillard any slack. Don’t cut any of them any slack. They’ll be crying in their beer and soon will be pleading with the people that it was all a mistake, they didn’t want to, they were FORCED to.
No they bloody well weren’t.
Re: Hurricanes. One must remember that our climate experts not only predicted an increase in hurricanes but also in intensity. Here’s a recent MSM article on this topic:
Storm warning: Climate change to spawn more hurricanes
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 4:44 p.m. EDT July 8, 2013
The world could see as many as 20 additional hurricanes and tropical storms each year by the end of the century because of climate change, says a study out today.
The study was published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), written by top climate researcher Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
…
Emanuel’s study used six newly upgraded global climate computer models to simulate future hurricane activity around the world. His study found that these killer storms will not only increase in intensity during the 21st century, as many previous studies had predicted, but will also increase in frequency in most locations.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/07/08/climate-change-global-warming-hurricanes/2498611/
Well Rich,
Since they have been scouring the Alantic desperately trying to find bits of wind to keep up their ACE index (you know, the one they invented when the number of hurricanes failed to show the required increase), they don’t actually have any planes that can make it 3/4 of the way to Africa to actually measure these swirly-looking bits of cloud! You will just have to take their word for it.
/sarc
Gack. The AGU whoring is . . . awful. What a captive, pathetic puppet “science” has become. Eisenhower’s quote form 1962 about the bureaucratic/technological elite didn’t foretell the ruination of the whole institution.
Now we have fake hurricanes…. so that the doom prognosticators can save face.
Remember: It is the American Geophysical UNION. Just like all good union shop stewards, they are simply looking out for their members’ interests. (Sarc)
TomB – “… none – is funded at a level below the previous year’s.”
When a 18% of the Total Budget gets 40% of the “cuts” – DoD budget topped at $691B in FY10; then goes $687B, 645, 574, 615, 578, 588, 597 to $606B in FY18, 12% lower than the max in FY10 (current $s).
TomB says:
September 11, 2013 at 11:14 am
“It disgusts me when sequestration is described as “budget cuts” when all it does is slow the growth of spending. No agency’s/department’s/ budget – none – is funded at a level below the previous year’s.”
Yes this propaganda is the same in europe where “austerity” is blamed for everything… yet government are spending more then ever before there and thats the complete opposite of “austerity”.
Stupid people believe anything they are feed in a crap sandwich sadly.
icepilot-No official budget has been passed since 2009. All we have and are currently operating on are a series of increasingly dangerous “continuing resolutions” to keep spending at the level of the disastrous 2009 budget, with no additional guidance from Congress at all as to where the extra money should be spent (since the financial bail-out programs were included in the 2009 budget and haven’t been active for years now). Sequestration was conceived to prevent a budget fight before a major election.
Technically, our government is the poorest on Planet Earth, being more in debt than any other.
The piece on abolishing the Climate commission in OZ: when you read the details the new government is still continuing CO2 curbing madness only making two departments instead of 8 responsible for them and saving 14 million or so! You Ozzies need a guerrilla army to route it all out completely. What is wrong with you people electing a coalition government after all this. Who can the doubters be?
desperation all around
The summer solstice was 1 day and 8 hours earlier this year than it was in 2002. So, in those terms one could easily argue Humberto was a full day later than Gustav was in 2002.
Summer solstice. No – only 8 hours earlier, but the logic still applies
Richard M says:
September 11, 2013 at 3:47 pm
The summer solstice was 1 day and 8 hours earlier this year than it was in 2002. So, in those terms one could easily argue Humberto was a full day later than Gustav was in 2002.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Now that is a keeper! Great for confusing the heck out of Warmists.
has something very strange ….
http://www.mar.mil.br/dhn/chm/meteo/prev/cartas/C13091112.jpg
SO the AGU is now a beltway bandit? When did it devolve into a lobby group?
The large area of Saharan dust aerosol, which 2 weeks ago was over the area where the hurricane formed has now gone. It looks very much like natural aerosols suppress hurricane activity in the same way anthropogenic aerosols are known to do.
http://ozoneaq.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/FULLDAY_AERO.PNG