The Week That Was: 2013-06-29 (June 29, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: : “The influence of mankind on climate is trivially true and numerically insignificant.” Richard Lindzen [H/t Tom Sheehan]
Number of the Week: 3.7%
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The Climate Speech: President Obama gave a long awaited speech announcing his climate plan. In an emotional appeal, he invoked the spirit of Apollo missions, apparently unaware that some of the veterans of the Apollo team formed The Right Climate Stuff research team (TRCS) that directly challenges the claims of the official Washington science that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing dangerous global warming.
The research team found that 1) the science that predicts the extent of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is not settled; 2) there is no convincing physical evidence of Catastrophic AGW; 3) computer models need to be validated before being used in critical decision-making, 4) we have time to study global climate changes and improve our prediction accuracy, 5) the US government is over-reacting to AGW, and 6) a wider range of solution options should be studied for global warming or cooling threats from any credible cause.
The president announced sweeping new powers for the EPA, including regulating existing coal fired power plants, without bothering to ask Congress for the requisite legislation. In so doing he is claiming authoritarian powers to fight climate change which has been ongoing for hundreds of millions of years.
The president used the term carbon pollution some 20 times, demonstrating how the unfortunate Supreme Court decision that carbon dioxide is a pollutant that can be regulated under the Clean Air Act has infected official thinking in Washington. Many do not realize they are carbon based life forms and that in the act of breathing they increase the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) of the air they use by 100 times, inhaling 4 parts per 10,000 and exhaling 400 parts per 10,000. In his speech the president lumped carbon with mercury, sulfur, and arsenic, known toxins.
The speech contained numerous scientific and factual challenges. But this is official Washington science, where un-validated computer models are used to create fear of the future, including global warming, climate change, and extreme weather events, as if they had never happened before. The official science is grossly misleading and, contrary to the models, atmospheric warming stopped a decade ago, and surface warming stopped over 15 years ago. The official science is creating fear in the public that natural variability in climate is unusual and that variability can be controlled by government.
The president presented the issue as if he was on high moral ground, equating skeptics to members of the Flat Earth Society and insisted that urgent action is needed to protect future generations. If there is any moral issue to the speech, it is misleading the public about science and public health to assert authorities control over significant components of the economy. Unfortunately, if his plan is implemented, the major burdens will become evident long after he has left office. Please see Article #2, links under President Obama’s Climate Speech and http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/SummaryPrelimReport.html. The articles cover a wide range of opinion, and they are in no particular order. Generally, the newspapers that identify themselves a liberal supported the president’s authoritarian expansion of power and did not insist on legislative action.
Carbon, Cost or Benefit? Last week’s TWTW discussed how the concept of Social Cost of Carbon, which has never been approved by Congress, therefore is an authoritarian assertion, is being manipulated by Washington bureaucrats. An article in the Wall Street Journal, discusses this further. TWTW will start a subheading titled the Social Benefits of Carbon. Please Article #3 and Social Benefits of Carbon.
Another Yucca Mountain? Secretary of Energy Moniz asserted that the Administration is not waging a war on coal and that the Climate Plan has $8 Billion for carbon capture and storage. Those who believe this will become effective and affordable would do well to review the history of the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository, which this Administration stopped, costing the nuclear energy tens of billions on a failed government promise. In 2009, the EPA issued a rule limiting the radiation doses from Yucca Mountain for up to 1,000,000 years!
Further, the requirement under the climate plan that the EPA will issue CO2 limits for new plants and existing plants achieves the goal of stopping construction of new coal-fired power plants to replace less efficient older plants. No one would start a plant under the cloud of new regulations to be issued later. Please see link under Energy Issues – US.
Flat Earth Society: President Obama’s equating those skeptical of the Washington science that CO2 emissions cause dangerous global warming brought out a few amusing responses with the Flat Earth Society. It turns out that the president of the society believes official climate science. Luboš Motl has fun with this by suggesting a merger of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Flat Earth Society. Please see link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
NIPCC in China: There are further press releases covering the Chinese Academy of Sciences announcing the translation of the two major reports by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) and the event surrounding the announcement. The purpose translation was to promote discussion and it was not an endorsement of the report. Please see Article # 1 and links under NIPCC in China.
Model Issues: Last week’s TWTW contained a discussion on the meaning of the mean of an ensemble of models. Judith Curry presented a discussion, limited to weather models that are constantly tested and updated. For the technically inclined please see link under Model Issues.
A Political Shift: Judith Curry suggests that the response of the Republicans to the President’s climate plan may indicate a shift in policy from questioning the science to focusing on the costs of the plan. Curry endorses this approach.
This approach may be easier to explain to the general public. But the quality of the science still needs to be addressed. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, the FY 2012 U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is $2.6 Billion. This does not include the monies being spent by the 13 agencies that make up the program. The 2009 USGCRP (different name) report was misleading. The draft 2013 report was shoddy, at best. If the purpose is to learn about climate change, rather than creating illusionary models, the entire program must be turned around to first understand the natural causes of climate change – and then understand the human influence. This turn around can only by accomplished sharp questioning of all the agencies involved. Please see link under The Political Games Continue.
Fracking Fears: A new study by Robert Jackson, Professor of Environmental Science at Duke, confirmed that some water wells in northeastern Pennsylvania in Marcellus shale basin showed high concentrations of methane, ethane and propane. But according to Jackson, the likely cause was faulty well construction, improper sealing; not hydraulic fracturing. Please see link under Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Gas Rich Britain? The UK Geological Survey released a study of northern England that indicates that the Bowland shale basin may contain the largest amount of shale gas in the world, up to 1300 trillion cubic feet. Of course much more exploration is necessary to determine how much is economically recoverable. The discovery will cause great consternation among the no fossil fuels politicians. Please see links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Climate Science Lesson Plans: The International Climate Science Coalition has announced lesson plans for teaching climate science in middle and high schools. SEPP has not reviewed the plans, but is familiar with the science advisor, Bob Carter, who is an editor of the NIPCC reports, and, no doubt, the program is scientifically sound. Please see link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
Sustainable Wind Power? Probably unintentionally, an article in the Guardian newspaper stated: “Wind turbine operators and manufacturers have been holding off on tens of billions of pounds of investment in the UK, over fears that subsidies would be cut to unsustainable levels.” SEPP has long maintained that without subsidies wind and solar power are unsustainable on a commercial scale. Please see link under Subsidies and Mandates Forever.
Amplifications and Corrections: Harold Doiron of The Right Climate Stuff Team corrected TWTW description of his word on the Apollo program. It should have read: “He developed the lunar lander touchdown dynamics simulation for toppling stability and energy absorption used to guide design of the landing gear, develop landing techniques, and help select safe landing sites.”
Reader Jens Kieffer-Olsen challenges David Archibald’s hypothesis that temperatures from central England indicate we are two years away from a 1740 event which was one of extreme cold following a period of warmth. Kieffer-Olsen asserts that the cause of the event was the 1739 eruption of Mt. Hekla in Iceland which killed about 20% of the population. An internet search, including one by Anthony Watts failed to uncover such an eruption. Kieffer-Olsen provided an account written in 1914, but it is in Swedish. The google translations is poor but it does state the eruption killed 9,238 people and significant livestock. http://runeberg.org/univers/0476.html
In two years we can test Archibald’s hypothesis.
Number of the Week: 3.7%. That is the percentage in US carbon dioxide emissions from 2011 to 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. Except for 2010, emissions have dropped every year since 2007. Lower natural gas prices have resulted in less carbon-intensive natural gas electricity generation replacing higher carbon intensive coal generation. The mild winter contributed as well. SEPP adds that the sustained economic stagnation (growth rate less than 2%) contributes as well.
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: http://www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1 Climate change by the numbers.
By S. Fred Singer, Chairman of SEPP, Founder of NIPCC, Submitted to Shanghai Daily, June 23, 2013
2. The Carbonated President
Obama unveils a war on fossil fuels he never disclosed as a candidate.
Editorial, WSJ, Jun 26, 2013
3. The ‘Social Cost of Carbon’ Gambit
Editorial, WSJ, Jun 27, 2013
4. A Property Rights Victory
Government can’t use permitting to extort from landowners.
Editorial, WSJ, Jun 27, 2013
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Flooding catastrophes at the Bavarian Lake Ammer occur predominantly during phases of weak solar activity
By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning, Trans. P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jun 24, 2013
CRU Abandons Yamal Superstick
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jun 28, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Changing an abrupt warming into no warming, as previously suggest by McIntyre. Some commentators accuse McIntyre of plagiarism for showing these changes – another low.]
Shiyatov and the Polar Urals
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jul 27, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A long post on CRU ignoring a significant set of properly collected tree ring data that was described in the journals.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
JCU caves in to badgering and groupthink — blackballs “politically incorrect” Bob Carter
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 26, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Bob Carter is an editor of the NIPCC Reports.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Roy Spencer and Murry Salby,
By Vincent Gray, NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No 313, Jun 22, 2013
[SEPP Comment: On the importance of satellite measurements temperatures. Also, on the need to document findings so they can be carefully studied, in this instance the relationship between temperatures and CO2 as asserted by Salby.]
Government Weather and Climate Science is a Proven Disaster.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Jun 26, 2013
It is time to close the [UK] weather office as they, like all government weather offices, have proved are political, unaccountable and scientifically wrong.
Paper finds ~50% of warming over past 30 years was due to natural ocean oscillations
By Staff Writer, Hockey Schtick, Jun 18, 2013
Link to paper: An Observational Analysis of Oceanic and Atmospheric Structure of Global-Scale Multidecadal Variability
By Peng Liu, Taida Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Sep 18, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Solar influence should not be summed with ocean influence, they may be interrelated.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
By century’s end, rising sea levels will turn the nation’s urban fantasyland into an American Atlantis. But long before the city is completely underwater, chaos will begin
By Jeff Goodell, Rolling Stones, Jun 20, 2013 [H/t William Readdy]
[SEPP Comment: A tedious account of what may happen. During the last interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, south Florida was covered by the ocean. One can see this by investigating limestone quarries 2 to 3 meters above sea level. No one suggests that human CO2 emissions was the cause.]
Buffering the Sun
David Keith and the question of climate engineering
By Erin O’Donnell, Harvard Magazine, July / August, 2013 [H/t Jan Breslow]
President Obama’s Climate Speech
‘We Need to Act': Transcript of Obama’s Climate Change Speech
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2013
President Obama’s Plan to Fight Climate Change
By Staff Writers, The White House, Jun 25, 2013 [H/t Jeffrey Miller]
Obama’s Boutique Energy Plan Hurts the Poor
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jun 26, 2013
And our tropical tropospheric temperatures (where almost 50% of Earth’s sunlight is absorbed) have a 34-year temperature trend which is not statistically different from zero, in stark contrast to 73 state-of-the-art climate models.
Obama Puts Legacy at Stake With Clean-Air Act
By Justin Gillis, NYT, Jun 25, 2013
The President’s Climate Action Plan – the good, the bad, and the ugly (with full documents)
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 25, 2013
Obama pledges carbon limits at power plants, says Keystone can’t raise greenhouse gases
By Brian Hughes, Washington Examiner, Jun 25, 2013
On the international front, Obama vowed to block U.S. funding for new coal power plants overseas unless they used so-called carbon capture technology.
[SEPP Comment: Achieves what environmentalists want, it blocks the construction of new coal fired power plants using advanced pollution control technology due to the uncertainty of EPA rule making.]
Obama should confront climate change fantasies
By Bjørn Lomborg, USA Today, Jun 25, 2013
On climate change, Obama bypasses Congress with ambitious plan
By Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Jun 25, 2013
Blowing Smoke: Obama Climate Speech Riddled With Lies
A dangerous, arrogant, fact-free tirade.
By Tim Ball and Tom Harris, PJ Media, Jun 26, 2013
Obama’s Climate Plan Has No New Ideas, But Would Make Economy Worse
By Kathleen Harnett White, IBD, Jun 26, 2013
Activists, lawmakers search for meaning in Obama’s Keystone comments
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Jun 27, 2013
Obama Is Merely Leveling The Energy Playing Field With Europe – Declares An End To Cheap American Energy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jun 26, 2013
Obama’s Climate Change Speech Ignores Science & EU Experience
By William Jasper, New American, Jun 25, 2013
Obama turns climate change into corporate bonanza
By Timothy Carney, Washington Examiner, Jun 25, 2013
President Obama’s climate initiative: The bad news and good news
By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Jun 26, 2013
The Top 5 Lies Of Obama’s Climate Change Speech
Editorial, IBD, Jun 26, 2013
CEI Analysts See Effort To Avoid Congress Because Ideas Are Unpopular
By Staff Writer, ICECAP, Jun 25, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Worse than trying to impress journalists by his basketball skills and shooting 2 out of 22 on camera?]
Cost of a Climate Policy: The Economic Impact of Obama’s Climate Action Plan
By Kreutzer, et al., Heritage Foundation, Jun 27, 2013
German Media Reaction To Obama’s Plan: “Hollow Words…Bruising And Potentially Costly Political Battle”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jun 28, 2013
Obama draws a bead on existing coal plants
Editorial, Charleston Daily Mail, West Virginia, Jun 25, 2013
Obama’s Climate Change Plans Include A War On Coal
Editorial, IBD, Jun 25, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
New carbon pollution rules could still be years away
By Jennifer Dlouhy, Fuel Fix, Jun 24, 2013
Beware! Media Will Support Obama’s Climate Lies
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Jun 25, 2013
It’s almost as if the White House can’t figure out how to use Google
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 27, 2013
The White House releases a laughable state by state climate impact report
By Anthony Watts, WUWT. Jun 26, 2013
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Three strikes and you’re out
By Gordon Fulks, ICECAP, Jun 22, 2013
Does population matter?
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Jun 28, 2013
Global Warming: There’s Nothing To Fight Against
Editorial, IBD, Jun 24, 2013
The IPCC and the Flat Earth Society may merge now
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Jun 27, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Establishing a parallel on these two organizations.]
How Many Things You Do Today Will Kill You Or The Planet?
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Jun 25, 2013
Important Advance in Climate Science Teaching
By Geoff Brown, NCTCS, Jun 25, 2013
NIPCC in China
Chinese Translation of Climate Change Reconsidered Unveiled in China
By Sansukong, China Daily, Jun 27, 2013
Chinese Translation of Climate Change Reconsidered
By Joseph Bast, Craig Idso, S. Fred Singer, Robert Carter, The Heartland Institute, Jun 11, 2013
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Busting the myths about climate migration
By Alex Randall, The Carbon Brief, Jun 24, 2013
Climate Change: Russia Is Steamed About U.N.’s Kyoto Carbon Credit Cop-Out
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Jun 23, 2013
Economy First: EU Climate Policy Falling Apart
By Joshua Chaffin and Peter Spiegel, Financial Times, via GWPF, Jun 28, 2013
MET Office Washout Claims Get a Cool Reception
By Gabrielle Monaghan, The Times, via GWPF, Jun 27, 2013
Seeking a Common Ground
By Cliff Mass, His Blog, Jun 24. 2013
[SEPP Comment: Has NOAA abandoned one of its principal missions – forecasting weather?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
IEA report outlines energy measures to slow impacts of climate change
Transcript by Staff Writers. EETV. Jun 26, 2013
How shale gas killed climate urgency
By John Kemp, Sydney Morning Herald, Jun 25, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Commentary on the IEA report that is alarmist.]
World Bank Commits Billions to Fight Global Warming
By Staff Writers, Judicial Watch, Jun 20, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
IMF: ‘Climate change will create jobs’
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jun 27, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Then why fight it?]
Military Report: America Has ‘Misguided’ Fixation With Domestic Drilling
The report, released quietly this month, says climate change is a bigger national security threat than the country’s dependence on foreign oil.
By John Cushman, Inside Climate News, Jun 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The Navy trying to justify an expensive, unneeded biofuels program. It should stick to what it does well.]
Australia’s Big Science Vision – an eco-green form of sustainable mediocrity
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 26, 2013
Questioning European Green
Europe’s Environmental Disaster
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Jun 25, 2013
Europe is on the verge of becoming an anachronism in the modern world.
No UK households have completed green deal process, figures show
Not a single home in the country has been modified to fully meet the energy efficiency plan as take up remains ‘worryingly slow’
By Adam Vaughan and Fiona Harvey, Guardian, UK, Jun 27, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Although easy for politicians to promote, making existing homes energy efficient can be a lengthy and expensive undertaking.]
Chinese Spring ‘Climate Bomb’ on Greens
By Walter Russell Meade, Via Meadia, Jun 23, 2013
[SEPP Comment: For those recognizing it, the game has been ongoing for years. The EU bureaucrats ignored it…]
Green rules will leave Europe importing even dirtier fuel from elsewhere, Essar Energy warns
Draconian green regulations risk putting European refineries out of business, leaving the continent importing more fuels from dirtier plants elsewhere in the world, Essar Energy has warned.
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Jun 24, 2013 [H/t Malcolm Ross]
The ‘Great Renewables Scam’ unravels
In many parts of northern Europe, wind and solar projects may be highly visible facts on the ground. But the headline economic fact behind renewable energy is, and always has been, its sheer and blatant “unsustainability”
By Peter Glover, The Commentator, Jun 21, 2013
Questioning Green Elsewhere
How Green Protectionism Harms Sustainable Forestry, the Environment and the World’s Poor
By Marcelo Ostria, NCPA, Jun 25, 2013
New Carbon Regulations, at Greater Cost to America
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Jun 26, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Gina McCarthy has not been confirmed as EPA Director].]
Spanish downturn a disaster for green energy
By Staff Writers, Madrid (AFP), June 23, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The subsidies were not sustainable.]
Social Benefits and Cost of Carbon
‘The Greening of Planet Earth’ (the 1992 video, updated in 1998, needs another update)
By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Jun 25, 2013
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
2 feet of sea level rise at Annapolis, or, maybe not…
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 27, 2013
“It provides the State with sea level rise projections based on best scientific understanding to ensure that infrastructure is sited and designed in a manner that will avoid or minimize future loss or damage.”
[SEPP Comment: An increase ranging from 11 inches to 25 inches in 37 years is the best they can do? Unlikely the lower bound will be realized in a century.]
Surprise species at risk from climate change
By Staff Writers, Johannesburg, South Africa (SPX), Jun 25, 2013
Link to paper: Identifying the World’s Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals
By Butchart, et al., PLOS One, Jun 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The biggest threat is land use change, not climate.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Australia’s Angry Hot Summer was hot angry hype– satellites show it was average
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 29, 2013
‘Quantifying the consensus on global warming in the literature’: a comment
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Jun 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Ad detailed exposure of the absurdity of surveys that conclude 97% of climate scientists ….]
Cities, farms reroute animals seeking cooler climes
By Sandra Hines for UW News
Seattle WA (SPX) Jun 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Unaware that US population has shifted south into warmer climates.]
Models v. Observations
Policy Implications of Climate Models on the Verge of Failure
By Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute, Washington DC, WUWT, Jun 27, 2013
New paper finds that aging weather stations record much higher daytime temperatures, 1.63°C higher than new stations
The Hockey Schtick, Jun 26, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Link to paper: Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations
By Lopardo, et al., International Journal of Climatology, Jun 26, 2013
How should we interpret an ensemble of models? Part I: Weather models
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Jun 24, 2013
Alberta faces ’10-year recovery’ after flood: Redford
By Staff Writers, Ottawa (AFP), June 24, 2013
Model-Data Comparison: Alaska Land Surface Air Temperature Anomalies
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Jun 27, 2013 [H/t Paul Redfern]
Pacific Ocean Hurricane’s and Global Warming
By Staff, SPPI & CO2 Science, Jun 19, 2013
The Great Tornado Doldrums: No Relationship Between Climate Change and Tornadoes
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt, Trans. P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jun 22, 2013
Evidence of Medieval Warm Period in Russia
By Staff, SPPI & CO2Science, Jun 26, 2013
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The coming Arctic boom
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Jun 22, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Not so certain, the ice has melted before.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Current global food production trajectory won’t meet 2050 needs
By Staff Writers, Minneapolis MN (SPX), Jun 24, 2013
[SEPP Comment: A model trajectory is not necessarily indicative of what may occur.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Modeling Climate Feedbacks Based on Short-Term Climate Variations
Reference: Koumoutsaris, S. 2013. What can we learn about climate feedbacks from short-term climate variations? Tellus A 65: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.18887
Koumoutsaris concludes that his several analyses indicate that “important aspects of the ENSO variability are still poorly understood and/or simulated.” And in the case of cloud feedback, he says that it is difficult to come to “any firm conclusion” … even on the sign of the feedback. And when these phenomena are so poorly simulated- even to the point where the direction of change of one of them remains unknown – it should be clear to all that the climate-modeling enterprise still has a long, long way to go before it can be considered good enough to serve as a basis for energy policy decisions that are already dictating various aspects of human behavior.
How Southern Ocean Echinoderm Larvae Respond to Elevated CO
Reference: Yu, P.C., Sewell, M.A., Matson, P.G., Rivest, E.B., Kapsenberg, L. and Hofmann, G.E. 2013. Growth attenuation with developmental schedule progression in embryos and early larvae of Sterechinus neumayeri raised under elevated CO2. PLOS ONE 8: e52448.
After all was said and done, Yu et al. concluded, in the final sentence of their paper’s abstract, that “effects of elevated CO2 representative of near future climate scenarios are proportionally minor on these early development stages.”
Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in CMIP5 Models
Reference: Turner, J., Bracegirdle, T.J., Phillips, T., Marshall, G.J. and Hosking, J.S. 2013. An initial assessment of Antarctic sea ice extent in the CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate 26: 1473-1484.
In summing up their findings, Turner et al. conclude that “many of the SIE biases in the CMIP3 runs remain in CMIP5.” More particularly, for example, they state that “as with CMIP3, the models do not simulate the recent increase in Antarctic SIE observed in the satellite data.”
Seven Millennia of Hurricane Activity along the Coast of Belize
Reference: McCloskey, T.A. and Liu, K.-b. 2012. A 7000 year record of paleohurricane activity from a coastal wetland in Belize. The Holocene 23: 278-291.
In light of these diverse findings, McCloskey and Liu conclude that (1) “both the climatic conditions favoring tropical cyclones and the frequency of landfall for major hurricanes have exhibited multi-centennial variability over the late Holocene,” and that (2) “the timing of hyperactive periods varies regionally across the North Atlantic.” Hence, their work would appear to suggest that there are no hard-and-fast rules about how climate change may impact the development of future storms in these regions.
The Political Games Continue
Have U.S. Republicans shifted strategy on climate change?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Jun 27, 2013
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Expanding RFS to Natural Gas: Typically Terrible DC Idea
By Nan Swift, Government Bytes, Jun 27, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Investment in renewables may get hit despite rise in wind farm subsidies
Government’s announcement of 10% rise in subsidy fails to dispel fears of energy companies over uncertainties in policy
By Fiona Harvey, Guardian, UK, Jun 27, 2013
EPA and other Regulators on the March
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Jun 28, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The wild dreams of Washington’s energy control zealots.]
The Injustice of “Environmental Justice”
By E. Calvin Beisner, Master Resource, Jun 27, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Another EPA concept for asserting control of the economy.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Spooked by shale
The shale-gas revolution unnerves Russian state capitalism
By Schumpeter, The Economist, Jun 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Energy Issues — US
Morning Bell: Things That Will Cost More Under Obama’s Climate Change Plan
By Amy Payne, The Foundry, Jun 26, 2013
Obama’s energy chief rebuts ‘war on coal’ claim
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jun 28, 2013
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama Donor Set To Profit From Keystone Demise
Editorial, IBD, Jun 27, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Britain Holds Biggest Shale Basin in the World
By Staff Writer, GWPF, Jun 27, 2013
Link to study: New shale gas resource figure for central Britain
By Staff, British Geological Survey, No date
[SEPP Comment: Much of the geology is not fully understood and needs further study. There may be larger basins elsewhere in the world.]
Huge UK shale gas reserves – ‘let’s get fracking’
By Benny Peiser, Public Service Europe, Jun 28, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
By Michael Lynch, Master Resource, AJun 26, 2013
Why such hysteria over fracking?
Studies have shown repeatedly that fracking is fundamentally safe. It creates jobs and cuts dependence on foreign oil. So why is there still such backlash?
By Rock Zierman, LA Times, Jun 21, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Return of King Coal?
In Obama’s War On American Coal, China’s The Victor
Editorial, IBD, Jun 28, 2013
The Coal Train Chugs Along
Global coal use rises with the global demand for electricity
By Robert Bryce, National Review, Jun 24, 2013
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Stray gases found in water wells near shale gas sites
By Staff Writers, Durham NC (SPX), Jun 25, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The issue is faulty well construction, not hydraulic fracturing.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
To cut pollution, install green power in the coal belt
Pricing to air pollution suggests solar is more profitable in Ohio than Arizona.
By Kate Prengaman, ARS Technica, Jun 25, 2013
Link to paper: Regional variations in the health, environmental, and climate benefits of wind and solar generation
By Siler-Evans, et al., PNAS, May 15, 2013
[SEPP Director Tom Sheahen points out the ignorance in this article including: “Basically, if you install a solar array in the sunny Southern California desert, that power mostly replaces electricity made with relatively clean natural gas. In contrast, if you installed the same solar panels in considerably less sunny Ohio, you’d be primarily replacing capacity at a coal-burning power plant, reducing far more air pollutants than in California.”
A) the capital cost of a solar panel is the same in either place, and Ohio is “considerably less sunny”, so you’d get less energy out, and hence it takes longer to get your money back.
B) when electricity enters the grid, the distance to where it gets used is a minor factor. I know that seems counter-intuitive, but the majority of the losses in transmission and distribution are due to transformers, not due to the I^2R loss associated with wire length.
C) the image of electricity moving from one point to another like water in a pipe is straight out of junior-high science class, and doesn’t explain AC power transmission. There is an entire industry/enterprise/business called “wheeling” about moving power around the grid at different times. Quickly summarizing, the grid loses 8% of the energy (and 10% of the power), regardless of where power enters or is taken off.”]
Europe’s Renewables Hype Implodes As German Solar Goes Belly Up
By Peter Glover, Energy Tribune, Jun 24, 2013
As one German commentator wryly observed, “the sun does send an invoice after all”.
Renewable energy use gaining worldwide: IEA
By Staff Writers, New York (AFP), June 25, 2013
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Climate change raises stakes on US ethanol policy
By Staff Writers, Houston TX (SPX) Jun 05, 2013
Link to paper: Climate Change Would Increase the Water Intensity of Irrigated Corn Ethanol
By Dominguez-Faus, et al., ACS Environmental Science & Technology, May 23, 2013
They also used estimates of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, and other elements from a number of models, including the government’s well-tested Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The Bloom Is Off Bloom Energy
By Alex Fitzsimmons, IER, Jun 18, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
USGS: U.S. Has Massive Carbon Storage Capacity in Geologic Basins
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jun 27, 2013
Other Scientific News
The contribution of particulate matter to forest decline
By Staff Writers, Bonn, Germany (SPX), Jun 24, 2013
Ten Thousandth Near-Earth Object Unearthed in Space
By Staff Writers, Pasadena CA (JPL), Jun 26, 2013
The Reasons Behind Retractions
An analysis of 244 retraction notices shows how journals handle mistakes and fraudulent behavior.
By Kate Yandell, The Scientist, Jun 26, 2013 [H/t Catherine French]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Peer Evil – the rotten business model of modern science
By Abzats, WUWT, Jun 25, 2013
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Rare Bird Slaughtered by Wind Turbine
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Jun 29, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Newly discovered in the UK after 22 years of absence – but the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds supports wind power because it claims wind power will save birds. This type of swift is prevalent in central Asia.]
Study finds climate change to shrink bison, profit
By Staff Writers, Manhattan, KS (SPX), Jun 24, 2013
Proud moment for warmists: President of real Flat Earth Society believes in the global warming hoax
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 26, 2013
Avaaz! Save the world from a slushy death, just £2
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 24, 2013