UAH global temperature, down slightly for November 2012

UAH v5.5 Global Temperature Update for November 2012: +0.28 deg. C

By Dr. Roy Spencer

After my extended trip to the West Coast, I am finally posting the global temperature update (sorry for the delay).

Our Version 5.5 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2012 is +0.28 deg. C (click for large version):

The hemispheric and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for 2012 are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.134 -0.065 -0.203 -0.256

2012 2 -0.135 +0.018 -0.289 -0.320

2012 3 +0.051 +0.119 -0.017 -0.238

2012 4 +0.232 +0.351 +0.114 -0.242

2012 5 +0.179 +0.337 +0.021 -0.098

2012 6 +0.235 +0.370 +0.101 -0.019

2012 7 +0.130 +0.256 +0.003 +0.142

2012 8 +0.208 +0.214 +0.202 +0.062

2012 9 +0.339 +0.350 +0.327 +0.153

2012 10 +0.333 +0.306 +0.361 +0.109

2012 11 +0.281 +0.301 +0.262 +0.172

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Werner Brozek
December 12, 2012 2:04 pm

2012 in Perspective so far on Six Data Sets
Note the bolded numbers for each data set where the lower bolded number is the highest anomaly recorded so far in 2012 and the higher one is the all time record so far. There is no comparison.

With the UAH anomaly for November at 0.281, the average for the first eleven months of the year is (-0.134 -0.135 + 0.051 + 0.232 + 0.179 + 0.235 + 0.130 + 0.208 + 0.339 + 0.333 + 0.281)/11 = 0.156. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.42. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.66.
With the GISS anomaly for November at 0.68, the average for the first eleven months of the year is (0.32 + 0.37 + 0.45 + 0.54 + 0.67 + 0.56 + 0.46 + 0.58 + 0.62 + 0.68 + 0.68)/11 = 0.54. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.63. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in March of 2002 and January of 2007 when it reached 0.89.
With the Hadcrut3 anomaly for October at 0.486, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.217 + 0.193 + 0.305 + 0.481 + 0.475 + 0.477 + 0.448 + 0.512+ 0.515 + 0.486)/10 = 0.411. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. One has to back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less.
With the sea surface anomaly for October at 0.428, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.203 + 0.230 + 0.241 + 0.292 + 0.339 + 0.351 + 0.385 + 0.440 + 0.449 + 0.428)/10 = 0.336. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.451. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in August of 1998 when it reached 0.555.
With the RSS anomaly for November at 0.195, the average for the first eleven months of the year is (-0.060 -0.123 + 0.071 + 0.330 + 0.231 + 0.337 + 0.290 + 0.255 + 0.383 + 0.294 + 0.195)/11 = 0.200. This would rank 11th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857.
With the Hadcrut4 anomaly for October at 0.518, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.288 + 0.209 + 0.339 + 0.526 + 0.531 + 0.501 + 0.469 + 0.529 + 0.516 + 0.518)/10 = 0.443. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.54. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.818. The 2011 anomaly at 0.399 puts 2011 in 12th place and the 2008 anomaly of 0.383 puts 2008 in 14th place.
On all six of the above data sets, a record is out of reach.
On all data sets, the different times for a slope that is at least very slightly negative ranges from 8 years and 2 months to 15 years and 11 months. NOTE: WFT is down at the moment so I can only give you the latest I have.
1. UAH: since September 2004 or 8 years, 2 months (goes to October)
2. GISS: since March 2001 or 11 years, 8 months (goes to October)
3. Combination of 4 global temperatures: since December 2000 or 11 years, 9 months (goes to August)
4. HadCrut3: since April 1997 or 15 years, 7 months (goes to October)
5. Sea surface temperatures: since March 1997 or 15 years, 8 months (goes to October)
6. RSS: since January 1997 or 15 years, 11 months (goes to November) But see * below.
RSS is 192/204 or 94% of the way to Santer’s 17 years.
7. Hadcrut4: since December 2000 or 11 years, 11 months (goes to October.)
See the graph below to show it all.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.25/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2001.1/trend/plot/rss/from:1997.0/trend/plot/wti/from:2000.9/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997.1/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000.9/trend/plot/uah/from:2004.66/trend
*In light of the importance of the 16 years lately, I would like to elaborate on RSS. If you hate nit picky stuff, just ignore this part. The slope for 15 years and 11 months from January 1997 on RSS is -4.1 x 10^-4. But the slope for 16 years and 0 months from December 1996 is +1.3 x 10^-4. So since the magnitude of the negative slope since January 1997 is 3 times than the magnitude of the positive slope since December 1996, I believe I can say that since a quarter of the way through December 1996, in other words from December 8, 1996 to December 7, 2012, the slope is 0. This is 16 years.

D Böehm
December 12, 2012 2:09 pm

Well, this news just about kills any possible chance that the alarmist crowd can claim any global warming over the past 16 years.
BTW, the Wood For Trees site has been down for a couple of days. Anyone know anything about that?

DaveW
December 12, 2012 2:12 pm

I’m sure it’s just me, but reporting anomalies seems to lose information about the data set. In this case, I don’t know what the base value is (I could look it up), so I really don’t know the magnitude of the anomaly. Is it ~0.2 % of the base number? What is its relative magnitude?
This prevents the reader from really understanding the problem. I understand the convienence for the cognizant, but showing anomalies to civilians or (gasp) politicians can really bias their perspective.

D.I.
December 12, 2012 2:20 pm

What is the temperature of 0.0 on this graph?
I see many graphs with 0.0 but they never seem to state what 0.0 refers to,without a reference to 0.0 they all seem meaningless.
Is this some sort of secret code of the Experts?
Enlighten me, please!.
REPLY: It is an anomaly graph, where zero represents the baseline period normal – Anthony

D Böehm
December 12, 2012 2:28 pm

D.I.,
Good question. The alarmist crowd likes to use 0.1ºC increments because it makes the y-axis look scary, when it is just a small temperature fluctuation.
Here is a chart with a normal y-axis. Not so scary, eh?

Editor
December 12, 2012 2:34 pm

And as I always try to provide on these posts, here’s a link to the Novermber 2012 sea surface temperature anomaly update:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/november-2012-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/
Weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are approaching zero.

jim
December 12, 2012 2:39 pm

D Böehm says: Here is a chart with a normal y-axis. Not so scary, eh?
JK: Of course that zero is still somewhat arbitrary. Why not start the chart at absolute zero?
Thanks
Jk

Climate Weenie
December 12, 2012 2:48 pm

When will the UAH MSU analysis software update be implemented?

D.I.
December 12, 2012 2:54 pm

Thanks for the replies,Anthony said, “It is an anomaly graph, where zero represents the baseline period normal”
What is the ‘normal’?,why do these graphs not show it?
If I was to draw a graph at school with no ‘Legend’ It would be a ‘Fail’.
Thanks D Boehm,the X,Y, Scam I am aware of but not the 0.0 with no reference.
Thank you for replying.

richardscourtney
December 12, 2012 3:07 pm

Climate Weenie:
At December 12, 2012 at 2:48 pm you ask
When will the UAH MSU analysis software update be implemented?

D Böehm
December 12, 2012 3:09 pm

D.I.,
You might be interested in this chart. They lie with charts by using the zero baseline trick.
Study the bottom two charts in the link for a minute or two, and you will see how they show a scary acceleration in temperature. But it isn’t real, it is an artifact of a zero baseline chart. The trend line chart at the bottom shows reality: the globe is warming steadily along its long term warming trend line, with no recent acceleration.
NOAA, GISS, and the other government agencies constantly use zero baseline charts to fool the eye into believing that there has been recent acceleration in global warming. But that is wrong, as the past sixteen years of no warming confirm.

richardscourtney
December 12, 2012 3:09 pm

Climate Weenie:
At December 12, 2012 at 2:48 pm you ask

When will the UAH MSU analysis software update be implemented?

Please specify the software update which you think is needed and why,
Richard

D.I.
December 12, 2012 3:18 pm

Thank you for your replies,
Anthony said “It is an anomaly graph, where zero represents the baseline period normal”.
But what is the ‘Normal’? It’s no good drawing Graphs if some of the Information is missing,If I drew a graph when I was at school without a ‘Legend’ it would be a Fail.
Thanks D Boehm,I am aware of the X,Y,Scam and I see it is applied to many a Graph, but this so called ‘non-reference’ to 0.0 really gets me down,as a ‘layman’ that is.
Thanks again for your Input on this.

pochas
December 12, 2012 3:23 pm

DaveW says:
December 12, 2012 at 2:12 pm
“I’m sure it’s just me, but reporting anomalies seems to lose information about the data set. In this case, I don’t know what the base value is (I could look it up), so I really don’t know the magnitude of the anomaly. Is it ~0.2 % of the base number? What is its relative magnitude?”
I agree. There ought to be a constitutional amendment that requires all anomaly graphs to state the value of the baseline in decimal notation.

A Crooks
December 12, 2012 3:23 pm

You don’t need to apologize for the delay in posting. I guess we all know that if there is a delay – there will be cooling.
Cheers

December 12, 2012 3:34 pm

Anomalies of anything are just to judgmental for my taste. I have spent my professional life chasing them. I understand why and how they are used too. These climate types need this since they seem fixated on trying to reduce the entire globe to one number which is in effect meaningless. If we use some fixed base then at least everyone, in theory, is speaking the same language. Oh were so to, but in reality it is not.

D.I.
December 12, 2012 3:44 pm

Thanks D Böehm,
I am well aware of the Skull-duggery of the so called ‘Graphs’ with just that little bit ‘Missing’, i.e. ‘Legend’, no reference to Baseline ect, but for so called Scientists to put out Graphs with no full explanation is (In my opinion), a disgrace.
Thanks for links.

geran
December 12, 2012 3:53 pm

“After my extended trip to the West Coast, I am finally posting the global temperature update (sorry for the delay).”
Okay, just don’t let it happen again!
Seriously, thank you Dr Spencer for this great effort. Folks like you and WUWT keep us tuned to reality. In Alabaman–“Y’all is deeply appreciated.”

D.I.
December 12, 2012 4:19 pm

Thanks to all who responded to my original request,
so what Is 0.0 on the Graph and who determined it?

John W. Garrett
December 12, 2012 4:20 pm

Thank you, as always, Dr. Spencer.
As mentioned earlier, the “Wood For Trees” site is not on-line. In combination with the UAH temperature graph, over the years, I have found it to be an extremely valuable tool to illustrate some of the fallacies of the CAGW claims.
Is there any word on WFT’s status ???

Mike Clark
December 12, 2012 4:33 pm

Werner, Its guys like you, Anthony, and quite a few others who keep me from feeling like there might be something wrong with me. Your kind of analysis of this data can be used to refute the nonsense of CO2 induced warming. Thank you for tying it all up in an easy to understand analysis.

Bill Illis
December 12, 2012 4:47 pm

Time again, for the semi-regular update of the Climate Model forecasts versus the actual climate observations.
Still looking pretty poor and now temps are on the way down again.
http://s12.postimage.org/kbtrs0oul/IPPC_vs_Obs_Nov_12.png

Neville
December 12, 2012 5:52 pm

While we wait for WFTs to return perhaps people would like to try Prof. Ole Humlum’s climate 4 you.
http://climate4you.com/

garymount
December 12, 2012 6:40 pm

I don’t know the temperature from where this data set is taken, but for surface temperature anomalies the 0.0 is approximately 288 Kelvin.

ossqss
December 12, 2012 6:50 pm

Should a perpetually warming planet ever have a monthly temp anomaly below normal over a 33 year period like it did last year for a couple months and the year prior ?
Feb-April will prove interesting this year…..
Thanks Dr. Spencer for all you do!
Nice summary also Werner Brozek !

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