Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

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The Week That Was: 2012-12-08 (December 8, 2012)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week: “No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere.” By Benjamin Santer

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Number of the Week: Between 8 inches (0.2 meters) and 6.6 feet (2.0 meters), with 90% certainty.

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In 2013 we will face a large number of proposed EPA regulations that will do little for the environment but will certainly retard or even stop economic growth. For a (partial) listing see http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/obamas_epa_plans_for_2013.html

Our task for 2013 is to show that most of these regulations are destructive, unscientific, and unnecessary. For a more complete statement of goals please see www.SEPP.org.

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SEASON’S GREETINGS

S. Fred Singer, PhD

Chairman, Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

1600 S. Eads St., Suite 712-S

Arlington, VA 22202-2907

<singer@SEPP.org>

1-703-920-2744

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Doha Over? As of this writing it appears that the 18th Annual Conference of Parties (COP 18) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Doha, Qatar, ended its two-week session to try to reach an agreement for the control of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. It ended in an all too typical 24 hour negotiating marathon in which it appears little was accomplished except to do it again. The Kyoto Protocol was extended to 2020 for the countries that agreed. (Details are not yet clear.)

The Green political groups, partially funded by the US government, criticized the lack of progress (read economic penalties self-inflected on wealthy countries). China and India would have none of this blood-letting. The UK taxpayers appear to be big losers with Ed Davey, the Climate Change Secretary, agreeing to some deal that will commit Britain to spending billions of pounds, part of which will go to subsidize inferior sources of electricity in Africa under some green fund with details to follow. No doubt, few of the claimed benefits will actually be delivered to those who need it the most.

Of course, the alarmists claim a deal must be struck immediately because their science states that unless carbon dioxide emissions are limited, the end is near. Their science does not consider the fact that the HadCRU surface temperatures show no global warming trend in 16 years. Do not let facts to get in the way of ideological belief! The touching moment came when the Philippine climate change commissioner fought back tears when claiming the typhoon that hit the Philippines was exacerbated by global warming / climate change. Simply because he believes it so does not make it so. The cyclone data contradict his claims.

With usual aplomb, Christopher Monckton commandeered a microphone during a break and announced to the climate change diplomats that nature is not obeying their science and their models. He was quickly escorted out of the room and his credentials seized. The pompous do not care to be reminded of their ignorance.

In the run-up to Doha, numerous organizations made outrageous predictions of the extent of global warming / climate change if CO2 emissions are not controlled. An informal survey shows that the World Bank was the winner of the most outlandish prize. The Bank claimed that temperatures will rise by 4 degrees C (7.2F) in about fifty years (as early as the 2060s). Also the Bank claimed that the Arab world would suffer the most. This was politically very appropriate, because the conference was being held in part of the Arab world.

However, its claims demonstrate that the World Bank’s climate experts are apparently ignorant of climate history. According to H.H. Lamb, during the period of about 5500 to 8000 years ago the Sahara was wet and populated with elephants, hippopotami, crocodiles, etc. Subsequent archeological research shows cultures relying on agriculture, including dairy. The Northern Hemisphere, if not the world, was warmer during this period. The tropical rains that brought life giving water failed as the hemisphere cooled. But why consider messy climate history, when you have a beautiful, unvalidated, computer model? Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Dire Doha, and Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

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The State of the Earth: Craig Idso, of CO2 Science, and a lead author of the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) titled Climate Change Reconsidered, just published a lengthy report: The State of Earth’s Terrestrial Biosphere: How is it Responding to Rising Atmospheric CO2 and Warmer Temperatures? Using hundreds of empirical studies, the report refutes the claims of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is stressing natural plants and human agriculture by reducing plant growth and development.

Over the past few decades, plants are growing robustly thanks to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Plants should be able to adapt to increasing temperatures, assuming the IPCC models are correct, and increase water use efficiency. Increasing CO2 concentrations are a boon to agriculture and humanity, not the threat the IPCC claims. The report categorizes the studies by continents and identifies countries such as China by natural category (grasslands, deserts, etc.). Over the past 50 years, the net carbon uptake has doubled and there is no evidence that the uptake will decline from rising temperatures.

The report is a valuable, empirical contribution on the effects of carbon dioxide emissions. One wonders how many “climate experts” in organizations such as the World Bank will read such a report. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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The New AGU: Reports from the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) indicates that the new executive director of the AGU, Chris McEntee, is leading the venerable institution directly into politics and targeting those members of Congress who are skeptical about the IPCC version of global warming / climate change. This is unfortunate because it may prove to be disastrous for American science if the IPCC is wrong, as TWTW asserts. It is a path of a new form of Lysenkoism that proved to be destructive for Soviet biological science.

One is reminded of the statement by Jane Lubchenco, the current Administrator of NOAA, made in her lecture as retiring president of AAAS: “Urgent and unprecedented environmental and social changes challenge scientists to define a new social contract…a commitment on the part of all scientists to devote their energies and talents to the mostpressing problems of the day, in proportion to their importance, in exchange for public funding.” [Boldface added]. Making false claims about science will surely reduce government funding of science eventually.

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The New Fingerprint? The quote of the week comes from Benjamin Santer, who is lead author of a new paper claiming to have discovered a new distinct human fingerprint of late 20th century warming. The old Santer fingerprint was the claimed human caused warming trend in the atmosphere above the tropics, which was found in the climate models. However, as reported by Douglass, Christy, Pearson, and Singer, weather balloon data of measurements at the appropriate altitudes and latitudes failed to show the pronounced warming trend. NIPCC 2008 Fig 10: http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC_final.pdf

Without going into details of the research, the statement has significant problems. It is a classic in Argumentum ad ignoraniam (an appeal to ignorance). I cannot think of any other explanation, so my conclusion must be correct.

As discussed in recent TWTWs, hindcasting, fitting the climate models to historic data is fraught with uncertainty. The internal uncertainty in the models allows them to be fitted to significantly varying data. In the past, surface data was used. Now, satellite data is used. Yet, there is a significant variance between surface data and satellite data that the climate establishment largely ignores. The method of hindcasting is roughly analogous to pouring warm gelatin into a mold. It will fit whatever mold one chooses.

In the past the IPCC has largely ignored the satellite data and relied on surface data. Further, the satellite data shows little or no warming trend from 1979 to the late 1990s, then a jump, followed by a no warming trend for over a decade. Needless to say, the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures is weak. An additional issue is that the satellite record clearly shows that the warming is concentrated in the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere and hardly global.

According to the reports, the new research will be a scientific core to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5), due out in 2013 and 2014. It will be interesting. Please see links under Defending the Orthodoxy.

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Oil Spill and Consequences: Several studies were released questioning the value of dispersants that were used in the BP Gulf Oil Spill. According to the first study, injecting the dispersants directly into the well was unnecessary and provided no real benefit. According to the second study mixing dispersants with oil greatly increased the toxicity of the oil. An additional important area of research would be studying microbes for use in future events as well as comprehending the speed of recovery after the use of dispersants. Please see links under Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences.

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Grid Costs of Renewables: The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency released a study of the costs of introducing erratic renewables, such solar and wind, onto an electrical grid system made up of reliable sources of electricity (coal, gas and nuclear) which are termed as dispatchable technologies. The findings should give pause to those who are considering the merits of different types.

“The study considers six technologies in detail: nuclear, coal, gas, onshore wind, offshore wind and solar. It finds that the so-called dispatchable technologies – coal, gas and nuclear – have system costs of less than $3 per MWh, while the system costs for renewables can reach up to $40 per MWh for onshore wind, $45 per MWh for offshore wind and $80 per MWh for solar. The costs for renewables vary depending on the country, technology and penetration levels, with higher system costs for greater penetration of renewables.” Please see link under Energy Issues – Non-US.

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Number of the Week: Between 8 inches (0.2 meters) and 6.6 feet (2.0 meters), with 90% certainty. “Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.” From: the NOAA Climate Program Office.

Actual global sea level rise has been ongoing for about 180 centuries – far longer than a persistent trend for decades. NOAA appears to be adopting the disinformation of James Hansen who predicts 6 meters (19.7 feet) of rise, but along a strongly exponential curve with most of the rise in the last few decades of the century. It is impossible to prove him wrong for many years. Is this what EPA is thinking with it declares to Federal judges that it is 90 to 99% certain about its science? Please see link under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

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ARTICLES:

For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: http://www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.

1. Energy Economics in One Lesson

Natural gas exports are good for America.

Editorial, WSJ, Dec 7, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324001104578163491822943984.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop

2. Playing Chicken in Oil-Patch Politics

Another green gambit by the Obama crowd to stop the energy boom.

By David Porter, WSJ, Dec 5, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323901604578157163958369742.html?mod=ITP_opinion_0

3. Floods Put Pipelines at Risk

Records Suggest Erosion of Riverbeds Jeopardizes Oil and Gas Infrastructure

By Jack Nicas, WSJ, Dec 3, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323622904578128884280719580.html?mod=ITP_pageone_1

4. Global Gas Push Stalls

Firms Hit Hurdles Trying to Replicate U.S. Success Abroad

By Russell Gold and Marynia Kruk, WSJ, Dec 2, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324355904578155591443631854.html?mod=ITP_pageone_0

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NEWS YOU CAN USE:

 

Challenging the Orthodoxy

The State of Earth’s Terrestrial Biosphere: How is it Responding to Rising Atmospheric CO2 and Warmer Temperatures?

By Craig Idso, CO2 Science, Dec 5, 2012

http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/greening/greening.php

The State of Earth’s Terrestrial Biosphere

By Craig Idso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, via GWPF, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/state-earths-terrestrial-biosphere/

[SEPP Comment: Brief comments on the report linked immediately above.]

Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls 2012

By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Dec 5, 2012

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/12/global-tropical-cyclone-landfalls-2012.html

Anyone who’d like to argue that the world is experiencing a “new normal” with respect to tropical cyclones is simply mistaken. Over the past 4 years, the world is actually in the midst of a very low period in tropical cyclone landfalls — at least as measured over the past 43 years.

The war of words over climate change

By Joseph Bast, Letter, Washington Post, Dec 3, 2012

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-war-of-words-over-climate-change/2012/11/30/dab1285e-38c1-11e2-9258-ac7c78d5c680_story.html

A problem: nearly one third of CO2 emissions occured since 1998, and it hasn’t warmed

By Tom Fuller, WUWT, Dec 6, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/06/a-problem-nearly-one-third-of-co2-emissions-occured-since-1998-and-it-hasnt-warmed/

Defending the Orthodoxy

Human-Caused Climate Change Signal Emerges from the Noise

By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Nov 29, 2012 [H/t Anne Debeil]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/11/121129143504.htm

A human-caused climate change signal emerges from the noise

By Anne M Stark, Press Release, LLNL, Nov 29, 2012

https://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2012/Nov/NR-12-11-05.html

Holding back the sea

Editorial, Washington Post, Dec 1, 2012 [H/t Dennis Manuta]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/holding-back-the-sea/2012/12/01/80d05e80-398f-11e2-a263-f0ebffed2f15_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend

With Carbon Dioxide Emissions at Record High, Worries on How to Slow Warming

By Justin Gillis and John Broder, NYT, Dec 2, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/03/world/emissions-of-carbon-dioxide-hit-record-in-2011-researchers-say.html?_r=0

[SEPP Comment: No global warming in 16 years; but why bother reporting it? To the New York Times CO2 emissions are no different than temperatures.]

Obama urged by environmental groups to take on climate change in next term

Activists step up pressure on president to turn vague promises made since re-election into concrete policies for the future

Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, UK, Dec 4, 2012

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/04/obama-environmental-groups-climate-change

Clinton Calls for ‘Global Network’ to Address Climate ‘Crisis’

By Fred Lucas, CNS News, Dec 3, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/clinton-calls-global-network-address-climate-crisis

[SEPP Comment: We already have a global network, but it is failing because the climate crisis is a government invention not supported by nature.]

Wind farms in Africa will save British lives, says Minister

Climate change: The UK will “pay the price in British lives” if the Government fails to spend money helping poor countries deal with climate change, according to Greg Barker, the Environment Minister.

By Louise Gray, Telegraph, UK, Dec 5, 2012

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9723542/Wind-farms-in-Africa-will-save-British-lives-says-Minister.html

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Anti-Science Climate Deniers On The Retreat In Germany

By James Taylor, Forbes, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2012/12/06/anti-science-climate-deniers-on-the-retreat-in-germany/

[SEPP Comment: Climate deniers being those who consider climate change is unusual.]

 

Fasullo and Trenberth find spurious success, make headlines, but still the models crash

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 6, 2012

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/fasulo-and-trenberth-find-spurious-success-make-headlines-but-still-the-models-crash/#more-25278

[SEPP Comment: More on an issue discussed in previous TWTWs.]

The Political Corrosion of the CSIRO

By Tom Quirk, Quadrant, Dec, 2012

http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2012/12/the-political-corrosion-of-the-csiro

[SEPP Comment: A thought provoking essay on Australia’s The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).

Standing up for misconduct

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 5, 2012

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/12/5/standing-up-for-misconduct.html

[SEPP Comment: The Royal Society stumbles again.]

Dr. Hans Labohm On Scepticism In Europe: “The Tide Is Turning…Very Much Alive And Kicking”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 7, 2012

http://notrickszone.com/2012/12/07/dr-hans-labohm-on-scepticism-in-europe-the-tide-is-turning-very-much-alive-and-kicking/

Global Warming Realist Marc Morano EXPOSES Bill Nye the SO CALLED Science Guy on Climate Change

By Noel Sheppard, ICECAP, Dec 4, 2012

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/global_warming_skeptic_marc_morano_debates_bill_nye_the_science_guy_on_clim/

Humans And Everything They Do Are Natural.

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Nov 30, 2012

http://drtimball.com/2012/humans-and-everything-they-do-are-natural/

Questioning European Green

Osborne’s gas plans will break climate promises, says Cabinet minister

Climate change: a dash for gas will risk the UK breaking its own climate change laws, Ed Davey has insisted, putting him on the war path with the Chancellor.

By Louise Gray, Telegraph, UK, Dec 5, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9723803/Osbornes-gas-plans-will-break-climate-promises-says-Cabinet-minister.html

Balderdash, dishonesty and woo

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 4, 2012

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/12/4/balderdash-dishonesty-and-woo.html

Britain creates shale gas office to simplify regulation

By Karoline Schaps, Reuters, Dec 5, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/05/britain-economy-shale-idUSL5E8N580G20121205

Chancellor confirms UK will chase US shale gas glut

By Vicky Ellis, Energy Live News, Dec 5, 2012

http://www.energylivenews.com/2012/12/05/chancellor-confirms-uk-will-chase-us-shale-gas-glut/

[SEPP Comment: What a headline! Due to shale gas, the prices of natural gas have gone down to about one-fourth (about 25%) of what they had been before. Most consumers enjoy such a glut!]

Let’s get fracking, and slash our gas bills

State backing for the shale revolution is what Britain’s economy has been crying out for

By Matt Ridley, Telegraph, UK, Dec 4, 2012 [H/t Bishop Hill]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/9721493/Lets-get-fracking-and-slash-our-gas-bills.html

Questioning Green Elsewhere

So, how’s your green energy stock doing?

By Steve Goreham, Washington Times, Dec 6, 2012 [H/t George Nicholas]

http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/climatism-watching-climate-science/2012/dec/6/so-hows-your-green-energy-stock-doing/

Expanding the Orthodoxy – AGU

The ‘New AGU’ … Talking Up Its Policy Backbone

AGU leadership professes its willingness to head-up an aggressive public policy and ‘education’ campaign directed at congressional skeptics.

By Bud Ward, Yale Forum on Climate Change, Dec 3, 2012 [H/t Climate Etc.]

http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/2012/12/the-new-agu-talking-up-its-policy-backbone/

AGU highlights

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Dec 6, 2012

http://judithcurry.com/2012/12/06/agu-highlights/#more-10580

Dire Doha

Is Africa in an emissions arm lock?

First World industrialized nations are trying to prevent African development

By Kelvin Kemm, SPPI, Dec 5, 2012

http://sppiblog.org/news/is-africa-in-an-emissions-arm-lock#more-8871

[SEPP Comment: The solar-cosmic ray hypothesis is more related to solar wind than solar magnetism.]

Christiana’s nightmare – for the rest of us

By Craig Rucker, Canada Free Press, Dec 5, 2012

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/51560

Climate change funds earmarked for Africa ‘are going to corporations’

Climate change: British taxpayers’ money for climate aid is going to large businesses such as Walmart rather than going directly to help poor people, according to campaigners.

By Louise Gray, Telegraph, UK, Dec 5, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9723731/Climate-change-funds-earmarked-for-Africa-are-going-to-corporations.html

EU, US rule out climate funding pledges in Doha

By Staff Writers, Doha (AFP), Dec 5, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/EU_US_rule_out_climate_funding_pledges_in_Doha_999.html

The road to a climate change deal goes through Doha

Editorial, Washington Post, Dec 3, 2012 [H/t Dennis Manuta]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-road-to-a-climate-change-deal-goes-through-doha/2012/12/03/03d88826-3d09-11e2-ae43-cf491b837f7b_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend

US says climate plan on track, EU wants more

Washington says cutting emissions in line with Obama plan

* Cuts by 2020 far short of scientists’ advice

* EU says China, U.S. should do more to fight global warming

By Humeyra Pamuk and Regan Doherty, The Hill, Dec 3, 2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/03/climate-talks-idUSL5E8N3HAV20121203

Todd Stern: Shale gas boosting US climate action

By Staff Writer, RTCC, Dec 5, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.rtcc.org/stern-shale-gas-boosting-us-climate-action/

[SEPP Comment: Washington taking credit for the success of something it has tried to suppress.]

Tensions over climate financing complicating UN talks in Doha

By Associated Press, Washington Post, Dec 5, 2012

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ap-interview-un-chief-says-rich-countries-caused-climate-change-must-take-lead-in-fixing-it/2012/12/05/e7f5be46-3eb9-11e2-8a5c-473797be602c_story.html

£2bn of UK aid to help Third World go green

Britain yesterday pledged almost £2 billion in “climate aid” to help finance foreign projects including wind turbines in Africa and greener cattle farming in Colombia.

Rowena Mason and Louise Gray, Telegraph, UK, Dec 4, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9722767/2bn-of-UK-aid-to-help-Third-World-go-green.html

Doha is dead. On to COP 19!

By Peter Foster, Financial Post, Dec 6, 2012

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/12/06/peter-foster-doha-is-dead-on-to-cop-19/

Environmental groups have a business model similar to Acme Window Smashing and Glazing

Doha: dead — Kyoto: kaput, but NGO’s win anyway

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 5, 2012

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/doha-dead-kyoto-kaput-but-ngos-win-anyway/#more-25865

Fund May Use $100 Billion a Year to Encourage Carbon Price

By Mathew Carr, Bloomberg, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-06/green-fund-may-use-100-billion-a-year-to-encourage-carbon-price.html

Renewable subsidies in 2011, including biofuels, amounted to $88 billion, the International Energy Agency in Paris said Nov. 12. Over the period to 2035, they need to amount to $4.8 trillion, over half of which has already been committed to existing projects or needed to meet 2020 targets, it said.

Is the U.S. being hoodwinked on climate change?

By Tom Harris, Canada Free Press, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/51599

Monckton on his smashing the U.N. wall of silence on lack of warming, and censure

By Monckton, WUWT, Dec 7, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/07/monckton-on-his-smashing-u-n-wall-of-silence-on-lack-of-warming-and-censure/

Seeking a Common Ground

The worst of the BEST

By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Dec 6, 2012

[SEPP Comment: A technical discussion centering on where Shaviv thinks the Best Team went wrong, particularly in its conclusions.]

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Myth 1: El Niño and La Niña Events are Cyclical

By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 3, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/03/el-nino-southern-oscillation-myth-1-el-nino-and-la-nina-events-are-cyclical/

[SEPP Comment: Explaining why the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not a true oscillation in period and frequency.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment

By Staff Writers, NOAA Climate Program Office, Dec 6, 2012 [H/t WUWT]

http://www.cpo.noaa.gov/reports/sealevel/

Snow cover hits record lows

By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Dec 04, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Snow_cover_hits_record_lows_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Comparing year to year snow cover near the beginning of summer does not address the issue of global warming.]

Projecting doom from our current wildfire year using climate models

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 5, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/05/projecting-doom-from-our-current-wildfire-year-using-climate-models/

[SEPP Comment: The climate models are failing but they are useful in creating fears.]

Arctic’s Record Melt Worries Scientists

By Tia Ghose, Yahoo News, Dec 6, 2012

http://news.yahoo.com/arctics-record-melt-worries-scientists-123834411.html?_esi=1

[SEPP Comment: What is most worrisome is that the scientists apparently have no knowledge of the history of climate change.]

Deadly 2012 Atlantic storm season officially ends

By Staff Writers, Miami (AFP), Nov 30, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Deadly_2012_Atlantic_storm_season_officially_ends_999.html

[SEPP Comment: With no Class 3 storms making landfall.}

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Arab world to bear brunt of climate change: World Bank

By Staff Writers, Doha (AFP), Dec 5, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Arab_world_to_bear_brunt_of_climate_change_World_Bank_999.html

 

The widening gap between present emissions and the two-degree target

By Staff Writers, Canberra, Australia (SPX), Dec 04, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_widening_gap_between_present_emissions_and_the_two_degree_target_999.html

[SEPP Comment: More on the invented, artificial target.]

Is this the planet we want to leave behind?

By Eugene Robinson, Washington Post, Nov 29, 2012 [H/t Dennis Manuta]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-climate-change-talks-need-us-support/2012/11/29/2cfe9ee2-3a5d-11e2-8a97-363b0f9a0ab3_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend

Models v. Observations

Once again, reality trumps models – Pacific SST’s are flat

By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 6, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/06/once-again-reality-trumps-models-pacific-ssts-are-flat/

[SEPP Comment: Satellite era from 1994 to Nov 2012]

Changing Weather

477 dead, homeless swell after Philippines typhoon

By Staff Writers, New Bataan, Philippines (AFP), Dec 6, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/477_dead_homeless_swell_after_Philippines_typhoon_999.html

Connecting the Global Cooling Dots

By Alan Caruba, Warming Signs, Dec 2, 2012

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2012/12/connecting-global-cooling-dots.html

[SEPP Comment: Without a clear trend in the data, global cooling is as questionable as global warming.]

Changing Seas

Sea level rise is the most reliable way to see global temperature trends

By Lubos Motl, Reference Frame, Dec 1, 2012

http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/12/sea-level-rise-is-most-reliable-way-to.html

Meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls: Sea Level Rise Has Slowed 34% Over The Last Decade!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 6, 2012

http://notrickszone.com/2012/12/06/meteorologist-klaus-eckart-puls-sea-level-rise-has-slowed-34-over-the-last-decade/

It is obvious to see that sea level rise has slowed down significantly. In view of the relatively short time frame in which the measurements have been made, it should not be speculated on whether the deceleration in the rise is a trend change or if it is only noise. What is certain is that there is neither a ‘dramatic’ rise, nor an ‘acceleration’. Conclusion: Climate models that project an acceleration over the last 20 years are wrong.”

Mercury in coastal fog linked to upwelling of deep ocean water

By Tim Stephens, UC Santa Cruz Press Release, Nov 4, 2012 [H/t WUWT]

http://news.ucsc.edu/2012/12/coastal-mercury.html

[SEPP Comment: Something else for the EPA to regulate. Not a health concern until the EPA applies its linear no-threshold model.]

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Plant Stress Paints Early Picture of Drought

By Kathryn Hansen for Goddard Space Flight Center

Greenbelt MD (SPX) Dec 07, 2012

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Plant_Stress_Paints_Early_Picture_of_Drought_999.html

Cloud nein

Is global drought really getting worse?

By Staff Writers, Economist, Dec 1, 2012

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21567313-global-drought-really-getting-worse-cloud-nein

Making sustainability policies sustainable

By Staff Writers, East Lansing MI (SPX), Dec 04, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Making_sustainability_policies_sustainable_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Making agriculture more dependent on government.]

Carbon dioxide could reduce crop yields

By Staff Writers, Dortmund, Germany (SPX), Dec 06, 2012

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Carbon_dioxide_could_reduce_crop_yields_999.html

[SEPP Comment: One experiment v. a wealth of evidence to the contrary.]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC

For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org

The Trouble with Clouds

Reference: Del Genio, A.D. 2012. Representing the sensitivity of convective cloud systems to tropospheric humidity in general circulation models. Surveys in Geophysics 33: 637-656.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/dec/4dec2012a1.html

The Biofuels Mandate and U.S. Corn Prices

Reference: Hertel, T.W. and Beckman, J. 2011. In: Zivin, J.G. and Perloff, M. (Eds.). The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies. NBER and University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/dec/5dec2012a1.html

CO2 Effects on Nitrogen Fixation in Soybeans

Reference: Lam, S.K., Hao, X., Lin, E., Han, X., Norton, R., Mosier, AR.., Seneweera, S. and Chen, D. 2012. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide on growth and nitrogen fixation of two soybean cultivars in northern China. Biology and Fertility of Soils 48: 603-606.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/dec/5dec2012a2.html

A 370-Year History of Tropical Cyclones in the Lesser Antilles

Reference: Chenoweth, M. and Divine, D. 2012. Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638-2009. Climatic Change 113: 583-598.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/dec/5dec2012a3.html

Going Back in Time: The (un)Predictability of Climate

Reference Lorenz, E. N. 1963. Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20: 130- 139.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/dec/5dec2012a4.html

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Carbon Tax: NRDC Serves Up Stale Leftovers

By David Kreutzer, The Foundry, Dec 6, 2012

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/12/06/carbon-tax-nrdc-serves-up-stale-leftovers/

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

7 Myths About the Wind Production Tax Credit

By David Kreutzer, The Foundry, Dec 4, 2012

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/12/04/7-myths-about-the-wind-production-tax-credit/

[SEPP Comment: Also, wind power is unsustainable, both naturally (it varies) and financially (it needs subsidies).

Ethanol Mandate Turns King Corn Into A Pauper

Editorial, IBD, Dec 3, 2012

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/120312-635564-ethanol-mandate-costs-us-its-corn-export-markets.htm?p=full

[SEPP Comment: Government policy destroying economically viable exports.]

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Oyster Farm Loses To Federal Bullies And Eco-Fanatics

Editorial, IBD, Dec 4, 2012

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/120412-635724-drakes-bay-oyster-shut-down-by-interior-department.htm

[SEPP Comment: Based on personal observations, another abusive use of governmental power.]

EPA’s engine destroying gas may be coming soon

By Rebekah Rast, Net Right Daily, Dec 6, 2012

http://netrightdaily.com/2012/12/epas-engine-destroying-gas-may-be-coming-soon/

EPA continues multimillion-dollar crackdown on glass manufacturing

By Paul Conner, Daily Caller, Dec 3, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/03/epa-continues-multimillion-dollar-crackdown-on-glass-manufacturing/

Energy Issues – Non-US

Leveling the playing field of grid cost

By Staff Writers, WNN, Nov 29, 2012

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE-Levelling_the_playing_field_of_grid_cost-2911128.html

Saudis seek oil in Red Sea ‘safe zone’

By Staff Writers, Yanbu, Saudi Arabia (UPI), Dec 6, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Saudis_seek_oil_in_Red_Sea_safe_zone_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Doubtful Greens will have much influence with the Kingdom.]

Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems

By Staff Writers, OECD, Nov, 2012

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/c5hdpp/nuclear_energy

[SEPP Comment: Efforts to blend erratic sources of electricity generation with those that work when needed. The erratic sources reduce revenues to the reliable ones, thus the reliable ones will not be replaced when needed.]

Canada seeks access to new oil markets

By Staff Writers, Montreal (AFP), Dec 1, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Canada_seeks_access_to_new_oil_markets_999.html

[SEPP Comment: The US is no longer a trustworthy trading partner.]

Energy Issues — US

Macroeconomic Impacts of LNG Exports from the United States

By David Montgomery, et al, NERA, Dec 3, 2012

http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/gasregulation/reports/nera_lng_report.pdf

Report: LNG Exports to Have Net Economic Benefits, Impact Domestic Power Sector

By Sonal Patel, Power News, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5218.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2576878&hq_l=5&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: Comments on the study linked immediately above.]

Report warns against increased LNG exports

By Staff Writers, Washington (UPI), Nov 30, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Report_warns_against_increased_LNG_exports_999.html

[SEPP Comment: From the Sierra Club that does not care about the economic benefits. See links immediately above.]

American Shale Gas Goes Global

By Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, Dec 6, 2012 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/06/american-shale-gas-goes-global/

AEO2013 Early Release Overview

By Staff Writers, EIA, Dec 2013

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er%282013%29.pdf

[SEPP Comment: The findings will be discussed in next week’s TWTW.]

EIA Projects Faster Growth of Natural Gas Production, Gas Generation

By Sonal Patel, Power News, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5222.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2576878&hq_l=6&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: Comments on the study linked immediately above.]

EIA Levalized Costs Can be Misleading

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Dec 7, 2012

http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/eia-levalized-costs-can-be-misleading/

Enbridge to proceed with $6.2B pipeline to ship light oil

By Lauren Krugel, National Post, Dec 7, 2012

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/07/enbridge-to-proceed-with-6-2b-pipeline-to-ship-canadian-u-s-light-oil/

[SEPP Comment: Since Washington stopped a pipeline to deliver heavy oil from Canada to the US, why not build a system to deliver light oil from the US to Canada, and beyond?]

Washington’s Control of Oil and Gas

Obama Says No to Oil Leases, But Yes to Windmills, Off the Atlantic Coast

By Susan Jones, CNS News, Dec 3, 2012 [H/t Randy Randol]

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-says-no-oil-leases-yes-windmills-atlantic-coast

DOI Unveils First-Ever Competitive Lease Sales for Wind Energy Along Atlantic Coast

By Sonal Patel, Power News, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5223.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2576878&hq_l=11&hq_v=5e660500d0

Return of King Coal?

IEA, OPEC and DOE agree: Coal marches on.

By Mark Mills, Energy Facts, Dec 3, 2012

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=29bc7d5d85828d574f86c157a&id=2db0d1eb61&e=

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Numerical study suggests subsea injection of chemicals didn’t prevent oil from rising to sea surface

By Staff Writers, Miami FL (SPX), Dec 06, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Numerical_study_suggests_subsea_injection_of_chemicals_didnt_prevent_oil_from_rising_to_sea_surface_999.html

Gulf of Mexico Clean-Up Makes 2010 Spill 52-Times More Toxic

Press Release, Georgia Tech, Nov 30, 2012

http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?nid=174381

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Enel Drops Participation in Flamanville EPR as Project Costs Soar by $2.6B

By Sonal Patel, Power News, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5219.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2576878&hq_l=8&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: The European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) seems to be undergoing many of the same issues the plagued US reactors decades ago – no realistic cost estimates and delivery schedules.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Apple Doubles Renewable Project at Expense of Duke Energy Customers

By Paul Chesser, NlPC, Dec 6, 2012

http://nlpc.org/stories/2012/12/06/apple-doubles-renewable-project-expense-duke-energy-customers

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Synthetic fuels could eliminate entire U.S. need for crude oil, create ‘new economy’

By John Sullivan for Princeton News, Princeton NJ (SPX), Dec 06, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Synthetic_fuels_could_eliminate_entire_US_need_for_crude_oil_create_new_economy_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Amazing! Devote more agriculture land to Biofuels at questionable costs as US oil and gas production are increasing significantly!]

Geoscientists cite ‘critical need’ for basic research to unleash promising energy resources

By Mark Shwartz of the Precourt Institute for Energy at Stanford University.

Stanford CA (SPX) Dec 04, 2012

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Geoscientists_cite_critical_need_for_basic_research_to_unleash_promising_energy_resources_999.html

California Dreaming

Cap & Tax: California’s Recipe To Feed The Texas Economy

By Larry Bell, Forbes, Dec 4, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/12/04/cap-tax-californias-recipe-to-feed-the-texas-economy/

Health, Energy, and Climate

Declining air pollution levels continue to improve life expectancy in US

By Staff Writers, Boston MA (SPX), Dec 06, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Declining_air_pollution_levels_continue_to_improve_life_expectancy_in_US_999.html

“However, the extent to which more recent regulatory actions have benefited public health remains in question. This study provides strong and compelling evidence that continuing to reduce ambient levels of PM2.5 prolongs life,”

[SEPP Comment: A seven year period is far too short to evaluate the benefits new regulations. There is little issue that the limiting of airborne particles since the 1920s have benefited health. The issue is the value of the latest increments to those regulations.]

Environmental Industry

A fanatical and self-righteous green religion stalks Britain. Now it wants to evangelise the Third World

By Cristina Odone, Telegraph, UK, Dec 5, 2012

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100192867/a-fanatical-and-self-righteous-green-religion-stalks-britain-now-it-wants-to-evangelise-the-third-world/

We Won’t Prevent Cancer Until We Prevent Exposure to Cancer-Causing Chemicals

By Jennifer Sass, NRDC, Nov 30, 2012

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/jsass/we_wont_prevent_cancer_until_w.html

For cynical manipulation of science, NRDC never disappoints

By Staff Writers, ACSH, Nov 3, 2012

http://www.acsh.org/for-cynical-manipulation-of-science-nrdc-never-disappoints/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

NRDC Urges EPA to Cut GHGs from Existing Fleet via Flexible Approach

By Gail Reitenbach, Power News, Dec 6, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5217.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2576878&hq_l=4&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: More NRDC analysis.]

Lung Association Poll: Another Attempt to Influence Public Opinion in the Guise of Reporting It

By Marlo Lewis, Cooler Heads, Dec 3, 2012

http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/12/03/lung-association-poll-another-attempt-to-influence-public-opinion-in-the-guise-of-reporting-it/

Other Scientific News

NIST experiments challenge fundamental understanding of electromagnetism

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Nov 30, 2012

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NIST_experiments_challenge_fundamental_understanding_of_electromagnetism_999.html

Other News that May Be of Interest

China aims to reduce air pollution

By Staff Writers, Beijing (UPI), Dec 6, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/China_aims_to_reduce_air_pollution_999.html

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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

Most Useless Flagrant Flop of Government (MUFFOG 2012): Finalist — Victorian Desal

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 4, 2012

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/most-useless-flagrant-flop-of-government-muffog-2012-finalist-victorian-desal/

Climate delegates in Qatar agree to wear gas masks

By Lubos Motl, Reference Frame, Dec 5, 2012

http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/12/climate-delegates-in-qatar-agree-to.html#more

Kerosene lamps spew black carbon, should be replaced

By Sarah Yang for Berkeley News, Berkeley CA (SPX), Dec 04, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Kerosene_lamps_spew_black_carbon_should_be_replaced_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Replace them with what?]

More Potent than CO2, N2O Levels in California May be Nearly Three Times Higher Than Previously Thought

By Staff Writers, Berkeley CA (SPX) Dec 07, 2012

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/More_Potent_than_CO2_N2O_Levels_in_California_May_be_Nearly_Three_Times_Higher_Than_Previously_Thought_999.html

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11 thoughts on “Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

  1. The link is missing from the entry below:

    The worst of the BEST

    By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Dec 6, 2012

    [SEPP Comment: A technical discussion centering on where Shaviv thinks the Best Team went wrong, particularly in its conclusions.]

  2. Still no word on the number of attendance at AGU FM ’12.

    Land sakes, did the US moratorium on ‘Gov. “Scientists”‘ attending the ‘shenanigans’ of course COP18 not withstanding, have such a U-trun effect ?

    Heavens to betsy. What has happen to the dear old A’G’U, indeed.

    XD

  3. The New Fingerprint? The quote of the week comes from Benjamin Santer, who is lead author of a new paper claiming to have discovered a new distinct human fingerprint of late 20th century…

    Oh–Wow, at first glance I thought it was the long sought after proof of Bigfoot!

  4. IF 16 years of lack of warming turns into 17 years, what will Santer say?

    “A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature. ”

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011JD016263.shtml

    “The LLNL-led research shows that climate models can and do simulate short, 10- to 12-year “hiatus periods” with minimal warming, even when the models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol particles. They find that tropospheric temperature records must be at least 17 years long to discriminate between internal climate noise and the signal of human-caused changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere.”

    https://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2011/Nov/NR-11-11-03.html

    ————————-

    “The multimodel average tropospheric temperature trends are outside the 5–95 percentile range of RSS results at most latitudes. The likely causes of these biases include forcing errors in the historical simulations (40–42), model response errors (43), remaining errors in satellite temperature estimates (26, 44), and an unusual manifestation of internal variability in the observations (35, 45). These explanations are not mutually exclusive. Our results suggest that forcing errors are a serious concern.”

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/11/28/1210514109.full.pdf

  5. No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere.” By Benjamin Santer

    This is the Ben Santer who in Gleckler et al 2012 found SST rise was a massive, massive 0.125 C in fifty years. Due to that evil foul gas CO2! And all due to foul evil humans! That is so massive (gasp!) it corresponds a 2XCO2 all of 0.4 C!!! Wow, at that rate we WILL fry for our sins!

    (/sarc, needless to say).

  6. In 2013 we will face a large number of proposed EPA regulations that will do little for the environment but will certainly retard or even stop economic growth.
    ———–
    Actually I can’t think of any historical precedent to justify this statement. On the other hand we do known that bad banking practices can stop the economy in its tracks. Maybe SEPP should repurpose itself to fight against bad banking practices.,

  7. You said : In referance to your boating, ‘has been most invigorating’. Should have said , ‘moist invigorating’.

  8. “No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere.” By Benjamin Santer

    Government-funded computer modeling not surprisingly finds what its paymasters want found.

    This unscientific, nay anti-scientific, attitude is precisely the same as that or intelligent design advocates who argue that any biological feature they can’t explain must have been specially created by God. Ideology-based lack of curiosity kills science.

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