From the University of Chicago Press Journals, a bizarre claim that less than 1C of warming globally in the last century, and essentially no change at all in Antarctica, will somehow change the weather in Antarctica and make it harder for seal pups to survive. Interestingly though, Livingston Island isn’t even part of the Antarctic continent. it is between the northernmost tip of the Antarctic peninsula and Tierra Del Fuego at the southernmost tip of South America. That puts it smack dab in the middle of ocean currents and weather patterns.
On Livingston Island, there is Ferraz Station, operated by Brazil, and it has a weather station.
The base is rather small:
And the temperature data from Ferraz station, looks like this:
It is a short record, essentially flat, so temperature certainly doesn’t seem to be an issue, so we are left with model predictions, and no actual data to support “climate change” on Livingston Island. Here’s the claim in the press release, with the usual collection of weasel words of “climate models predict”, “could cause”, “If climate change models are correct…”, and “this may influence”.
Energy requirements make Antarctic fur seal pups vulnerable to climate change
A new study suggests that climate change could pose a risk for Antarctic fur seals in their first few months of life.
The study, published in the journal Physiological and Biochemical Zoology, found that changing weather conditions can impact the metabolic rates of fur seal pups. Climate models predict windier and wetter conditions in Antarctica in the coming years, and that could cause young seals to assign more energy to thermoregulation, leaving less available for growth and development.
For their study, a team of scientists led by Dr. Birgitte McDonald (University of University of California, Santa Cruz) gathered data from 48 young seals on Livingston Island, just off the Antarctic Peninsula, to find out how much energy pups get from their mothers and how they use it.
“Energy budgets are important if we are to understand how individuals interact with their environment,” McDonald said. “In juvenile animals we need to know how they allocate energy towards growth, energy storage, maintenance including thermoregulation, and development of foraging skills to facilitate a successful transition to independence.”
The team measured milk energy intake, field metabolic rate, and growth rate over three developmental periods during in the seals’ first four months of life, when they are completely dependent on mother’s milk. The research found that in newborn pups, around 60 percent of the milk energy they receive from their mothers goes to growth. But as the pups get older and their mothers begin leaving them behind periodically to go on foraging trips, that percentage begins to fall. By the age of one month, pups only have about 25 percent of their energy available for growth.
As expected, the researchers found that the biggest predictor of a pup’s growth rate was the amount of milk they ingested, showing just how important maternal investment is when growing up in such harsh conditions. But other factors were also important in determining a pup’s energy throughput, including the pup’s size and condition at birth and environmental factors like weather.
“If climate change models are correct and the Antarctic Peninsula gets windier and wetter weather, this may influence how much energy is available for growth,” McDonald said. “Changes in prey availability and climate may lead pups to conserve energy by sacrificing the development of foraging skill or to wean at a lower mass or body condition, resulting in negative impacts on the ability to transition successfully to nutritional independence.”
McDonald hopes the research will lead to better predictions about how a changing environment may ultimately affect young seals and seal populations.
Birgitte I. McDonald, Michael E. Goebel, Daniel E. Crocker, Daniel P. Costa, “Biological and Environmental Drivers of Energy Allocation in a Dependent Mammal, the Antarctic Fur Seal Pup.” Physiological and Biochemical Zoology 85:2 (March/April 2012).
Physiological and Biochemical Zoology primarily publishes original research papers in animal physiology and biochemistry with a specific emphasis on studies that address the ecological and/or evolutionary aspects of physiological and biochemical mechanisms.
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Obviously dead seal pups are the newest proxy for CAGW and other catastrophic yet to be named stuff. This is the greatest revelation since the miracle bristle cone tree and upside down mud deposits. As my frustrated daughter used to write when doing math proofs in high school – “it’s obvious!”
Yeah, sure! The Antarctic is going to get windier if it warms a fraction? I seem to remember someone saying that it is already pretty windy down Antarctica way. Have these researchers not heard of the “furious fifties”? Anthony’s screen shot shows the latitude of Livingston Island is 58 degrees.
Apparently the Santa Cruz team which is far left by nature never considered that seals have been around for 1000’s of years and survived many climate changes. Pretty sure they will adapt to the next one whatever it is. Just another global warming press release paid for by stimulus dollars or higher tuition.
Er, judging by the position of Livingston Island on the Antarctic Shelf Margin, technically it is a part of the Antarctic Continental mass, perhaps as an accreted terrane. But I digress. To think that 1 puny degree of temperature variation in such a harsh place would make anything but a positive difference is, well, loony.
Take a gander at Ms. McDonald’s CV. I’m underwhelmed.
http://bio.research.ucsc.edu/people/costa/people/CV_mcdonald.pdf
Oh come on Anthony its obvious – If there were any climate change in this location (which there isn’t) then there might be a risk to the pups (or not). More budding AGW experts on the way.
This is serious. A lack of fur seal pups will have an impact on the endangered polar bear population.
REPLY: wrong hemisphere
Sounds to me like a completely useless study with absolutely no useful or interesting results, so they tacked on a ‘climate change’ perspective to make it valid.
Didn’t half that place burn down recently? Can’t do much to the carbon balance in the anarctic..
In and of itself, the study’s methods and conclusions are uncontroversial. But yet more evidence of how the long arm of government, by controlling the flow of money, keeps the “consensus” on-script for such a relatively immature field of science..
http://www.australianclimatemadness.com/2012/03/essential-reading-dr-david-evans-climate-coup/
I cannot believe rubbish like this is published unchallenged I know I am smarter than most but surely most will spot this for the crock it is?
“The study, published in the journal Physiological and Biochemical Zoology, found that changing weather conditions can impact the metabolic rates of fur seal pups. Climate models predict…”
Using my Airfix model, I predict this is BS.
University of California, Santa Cruz….that says it all – agenda-based study results.
Speaking of results, do they actually have cases (i.e. evidence) of young pups
actually weaining earlier or sacrificing foraging skill? Seems the only “evidence”
for this is in their models, a sort of hiding the (non-)decline in the young pups’ well-being.
Of course this will require more funding for repeated junkets, er, studies to
prop up the supposed results….and this at a time when California’s universities
are in dire need of money for normal operations…
According to Brenda Hall’s research, elephant seals were breeding in the Ross Sea area a thousand years ago. It’s too cold for that these days. The closest they breed is on Macquarie Island. Even though it was much warmer than today, the Ross ice shelf appears to have remained intact.
I suspect the Southern fur seals are too illiterate to appreciate the nuances of computer projections and consequently won’t give a fiddler’s fart for this research.
Wouldn’t a 1 degree temperature rise lead to somewhat lower thermoregulation requirements?
My turn for a pendant post.
“harder for deal pups to survive. ”
I am pretty sure you meant seal pups.
Arctocephalus (including Antarctic fur seals) is a very climatic-tolerant genus, with species all over various islands in the eastern Pacific, South America, the Antarctic Convergence, South Africa, and Australia/New Zealand, from the Farallones (off Northern California) to Guadalupe (off central Mexico) to the Galapagos and south to the Antarctic. There is even a sub-Antarctic fur seal (A. tropicalis). It is the only otariid pinniped genus to cross the equator. The speciation of the genus is fairly recent as well. That speciation is a likely a product of the Pleistocene climate oscillations. A degree or two in either direction now won’t matter much to the genus or the species (Arctocephalus gazella).
I believe this report is only playing to the audience expecting AGW stuff. Marine Mammal Science should have been the journal of choice for this. I wonder if the SMM/MMS kicked it.
Dr. Dave says:
March 21, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Take a gander at Ms. McDonald’s CV. I’m underwhelmed.
http://bio.research.ucsc.edu/people/costa/people/CV_mcdonald.pdf
Her CV was interesting to read. It looks like she does a great deal of field work. At least she is doing actual work in the field and getting direct observational data. Although the conclusions that are reached do seem a bit farfetched. More like an excuse to continue observation and not something they actually believe.
To anyone who might be interested: at the Australian Climate Madness site -presently listing Dr David Evan’s excellent essays (Climate Coup – The Science; Climate Coup – The Politics: see the link in my comment above) I suggested that readers might also be interested in following a link to Martin Durkin’s site (he of: ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’) and his excellent essays on ‘GREENS and the lessons from history’ (2 vols) which are freely available to read at his site. Here is that link:
http://www.martindurkin.com/blogs/greens-warning-history-volume-one
As Tom E above points out, the seals have adapted to past climate changes.
I very much doubt homo sapiens sapiens is capable of adapting to any climate change at all.
Anthony,
I admire your restraint in guiding Mike McMillan to the knowledge that Polar bears live in the Arctic, which is up north and the fur seals under discussion are located on an island just off the Antarctic continent down south. I’d have deleted his comment to save his blushes.
However, upon reflection, MM shows a similar grasp of the facts of reality as a certain other MM we know about! Is it possible we have we had a visitation from the Ig Nobel one?
http://improbable.com/ig/winners/
Regards,
Perry
Thanks for the CV Dr. Dave – She has never done a days work in her life. As my friend Mr. Ng would say ” It’s a road of borrocks”
This is serious. A lack of fur seal pups will have an impact on the endangered polar bear population.
REPLY: wrong hemisphere
Are you sure?
There was recently a major fire resulting in a loss of life at the Ferraz base: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-17168526.
The loss of life and property is deeply regretted, so one would have hoped that the science would be more obviously worth the sacrifice.
Quick fact check: One of the breeding grounds of antarctic fur seal is Macquarie Island (AU). Annual population growth rate is 13%(!) there, which is clearly unsustainable, but shows the species is well adapted to environmental conditions there.
Now, Macquarie Island is located 54.5 S, some 900 km farther North from Antarctica than Livingston Island, therefore its annual average temperature is about 7.5°C warmer (4.8°C vs. -2.7°C. It also gets 20% more precipitation (960 mm vs. 800 mm per annum) and is more windy (avg. wind speed 30 km/h vs. 15 km/h, wind gusts 140 km/h vs 110 km/h).
I should really ask, what are these folks talking about? More importantly, what were reviewers doing? Have editors chosen them based on their political stance as opposed to their familiarity with the habitat range of the species in question?
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/living-and-working/stations/macquarie-island/macquarie-is-science/fur-seals-on-macquarie-island