Spaceweather.com reports:
A strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at approximately 12:15 UT on Sept. 26th.
The Goddard Space Weather Lab reports a “strong compression of Earth’s magnetosphere. Simulations indicate that solar wind plasma [has penetrated] close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 13:00UT.” Geosynchronous satellites could therefore be directly exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic fields. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for Northern and Southern Lights after nightfall.
Having already unleashed two X-flares since Sept. 22nd, sunspot AR1302 appears ready for more. The active region has a complex “beta-gamma-delta” magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M- and X-classeruptions. Flares from AR1302 will become increasingly geoeffective as the sunspot turns toward Earth in the days ahead.
On Sunday, Sept. 25th, Dutch astrophotographer Emil Kraaikamp took a magnificent picture of the active region, which is so big only half of it fits on the screen. Click to view the entire sunspot:
The WUWT Solar reference page has more data and imagery.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Would someone like to tell me or speculate as to why aren’t there any sunspots in the Southern hemisphere ?
Is this part of the L & P effect I’ve heard about ?
Leif,
I think of you whenever I see these kinds of posts.
John
Makes my hair stand on end!
How does this translate into the likelihood of seeing auroras?
Time and location predictions?
Thanks.
KP factor is at 8
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif
and the earth’s magnetic field had short sharp kick
http://flux.phys.uit.no/cgi-bin/plotgeodata.cgi?Last24&site=tro2a&
j.pickens says:
September 26, 2011 at 2:18 pm
How does this translate into the likelihood of seeing auroras?
Time and location predictions?
Thanks
—————————
j.pickens,
There are sites that give aurora times and locations. Just generally Google or Bing.
I think they include aurora resulting from CMEs.
John
Cool
Amazing Picture!!!!
What’s inside the dark spot, please?
I heard a deep rumbling that sounded similar to a jet taking off (at a distance) about 10 minutes ago. I wonder if that is related to this magnetic storm?
Doug in Seallte says:
…………………..
An earthquake sounds like a rambling heavy truck on an unmade road (I heard 2 of those some years ago). Keep an eye on this link:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/42.52.-130.-120.php
Doug in Seallte; no, that rumbling sound was just Trenbreth’s heat arguing about coming out of hiding.
Is it my imagination, but are those spots closer to the solar equator than would be normal for this stage of the solar cycle?
This Kp-8 geomagnetic storm has caused a huge radio blackout. NOAA seems to be reporting it as a ‘minor’ blackout (R1) …
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#RadioBlackouts
… but looking at the HAARP HF spectrum display it looks like a severe blackout. The whole HF spectrum has been blacked out (literally, on the right side of the chart) for more than 6 hours now:
http://maestro.haarp.alaska.edu/data/spectrum2/www/hf.html
I actually saw this spot yesterday, naked eye through some welding glass. This is the first I have ever seen without optical aid. It’s a BIG ‘UN!
I can step outside and look at the aurora at this very moment. It is in southern Norway.
First place I checked was the USGS and the Cascade Volcano Observatory. Did see that there was a 3.2 quake on the 22nd whose epicenter was 24 km below my house, but nothing happening today.
Looks like a good time to study the effects on clouds.
Here and gone; as noted by Ercot of Texas:
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Sep 26 2011 12:40:19 CST
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Co has issued a Geomagnetic K-Index of (K7) expected from 12:11 to 16:00 EST 09/26/11.
Operational Information: Cancelled
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Sep 26 2011 15:12:37 CST
ERCOT has cancelled the following notice: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Co has issued a Geomagnetic K-Index of (K7) expected from 12:11 to 16:00 EST 09/26/11.
Operational Information: Cancelled
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
And 40 Meters is alive and well in Texas, too.
The Midland, TX, El Paso, TX, Lubbock, TX, and the Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service Offices have all posted this link onto their web pages. Looks like the NWS thinks this CME event could potentially become serious.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=maf&storyid=73342&source=0
I think its time for an updated story on sunspot numbers, Anthony. Looking back at the previous post http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/18/suns-magnetics-remain-in-a-funk-sunspots-may-be-on-their-way-out/ The prediction shows we should be around the 65-70 range but as of right now its 108. Way ahead of predictions. so it seems to me its mirroring cycle 23 to the day.
Not to mention the 10.7 cm flux: 190 sfu. when the predictions are saying 120sfu. just something I noticed.
As of 2315 UTC the medium wave and short wave bands show only minor disturbance here at 35 degrees north and 82 degrees west. No aurora on six meters and two meters here. Darn!
K4LY
Don’t panic and get carried away by these instantaneous high flux values. That 190 reading only lasted a few hours and then went down. The predictions are based on smoothed values, averaged over over a month. You shouldn’t compare averages with instantaneous peaks.
The latest smoothed rotational averages from Penticton (the folks who officially measure the flux) are right in line with the predictions:
http://www.spaceweather.ca/sx-7-eng.php
SC24 is still going to be one of the smallest cycles in the last 100 years. Just like Leif predicted back in 2005.
http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
I saw sunspots around 1955 with my naked eyes through a thin cloud layer and my parents said I was crazy. But, my friend “Wierd Larry” saw them too! Of course no one believed him either. I’ve seen lots since so no big deal. Now that I’ve got older I don’t look at the sun to see spots-I’ve got my own eye “floaters” that look like sunspots.
Thanks for the reply, i forgot those darn averages! Found a graph thats puts it in to better perspective. http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html