A Conversation with an Infrared Radiation Expert

Visible and IR photo in Anthony's neighborhood - note that my IR camera doesn't go any lower than -20°C Photos by A. Watts

A guest post by Ken Coffman and Mikael Cronholm

In clicking around on the Internet, I found an outstanding paper called Thermodynamics of Furnace Tubes – Killing Popular Myths about Furnace Tube Temperature Measurement written by Mikael Cronholm. The paper was clever and wise…and made a lot of sense. Clearly Mikael knows a lot about infrared radiation and I’m a guy with questions. A match made in heaven?

We exchanged e-mails. I want to be clear about this…Mikael corrected some of my wrong ideas about IR. I’ll repeat that for the slow-witted. Some of my ideas about infrared radiation were wrong. I am considered a hard-headed, stubborn old guy and that’s completely true. However, I want to learn and I can be taught, but not by knuckleheads spewing nonsense and not by authoritarians who sit on thrones and toss out insults and edicts.

Ken Coffman (KLC) is the publisher of Stairway Press (www.stairwaypress.com) and the author of novels that include Hartz String Theory and Endangered Species.

Mikael Cronholm (MC) is an industry expert on infrared radiation, a licensed, level III Infrared Training Center Instructor and holds two Bachelor of Science degrees (Economics and Business Administration).

The following is a summary of our conversation.

KLC: Hello Mikael. I found your paper called Thermodynamics of Furnace Tubes and I found it very informative, practical and interesting. I hope you’ll bear with me while I ask a couple of dumb questions. I am an electrical engineer, so I have some knowledge about thermodynamics of conduction and convection, but not so much about IR radiation. In return for your time, I would be happy to make a donation to the charity of your choice.

If I take an inexpensive IR thermometer outside, point it at the sky and get a temperature reading of minus 25°C, what am I actually measuring? Is there anything valid about doing this?

MC: Just as a matter of curiosity, how did you find my paper? I checked your website and I guess this has to do with the Dragon, no? If you want to make a donation I would be happy to receive that book. If you can, my postal address is at the bottom. I don’t follow the debate more than casually, but I am a bit skeptical to all the research that is done on climate change…it seems that the models are continuously adjusted to fit the inputs, so that you get the wanted output…and they argue “so many scientists agree with this and that”…well, science is not a democracy…anyway…

About radiation, then. There is more to this than meets the eye. Literally!

Looking at the sky with an infrared radiometer you would read what is termed “apparent temperature” (if the instrument is set to emissivity 1 and the distance setting is zero, provided the instrument has any compensation). Your instrument is then receiving the same radiation as a blackbody would do if it had a temperature of -25°C, if that is what you measure. It is a quasi-temperature of sorts, because you don’t really measure on a particular object in any particular place, but a combination of radiation, where that from outer space is the lowest, close to absolute zero, and the immediate atmosphere closest to you is the warmest. (I have once measured -96°C on the sky at 0°C ground temperature.) What we have to realize though, is that temperature can never be directly measured. We measure the height of a liquid in a common thermometer, a voltage in a thermocouple, etc, and then it is calibrated using the zeroth law of thermodynamics and assuming equilibrium with the device and the reference.

KLC: Global warming (greenhouse gas) theory depends on atmospheric CO2 molecules absorbing IR radiation and “back radiating” this energy back toward the earth. If you look at the notorious Ternberth/Keihl energy balance schematic (as shown in Figure 1 of this paper: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/TFK_bams09.pdf ), you see the back radiation is determined to be very significant…more than 300W/m2. From your point of view as an IR expert, does this aspect of the global warming theory make any sense?

MC: The paper you sent me mentions Stefan-Boltzman’s law, but it does not talk about Planck’s law, which is necessary to understand what is happening spectrally. I suggest you read up on Planck and Stefan-Boltzman at Wikipedia or something. Wien’s law would be beneficial as well—they are all connected.

Planck’s law describes the distribution of radiated power from a blackbody over wavelength. You end up with a curve for each blackbody temperature. The sun is almost a blackbody, so it follows Planck quite well, and it has a peak at about 480nm, right in the middle of visual (Wien’s law determines that). The solar spectrum is slightly modified as it passes through the atmosphere, but still pretty close to Planckian. When the radiation hits the ground, the absorbed part heats it. The re-radiated power is going to have a different spectral distribution, with a peak around 10um (micrometer). Assuming blackbody radiation it would also follow Planck’s law.

S-B’s law is in principle the integral of Planck from zero to infinity wavelength. Instruments do not have equal response from zero to infinity, but they are calibrated against blackbodies, and whatever signal they output is considered to mean the temperature of the blackbody. And so on for a number of blackbodies until you have a calibration curve that can be fitted for conversion in the instrument.

That means that the instrument can only measure correctly on targets that are either blackbodies, or greybodies with a spectral distribution looking like a Planck curve, but at a known offset. That offset is emissivity, the epsilon in your S-B equation in that paper. It is defined as the ratio of the radiation from the greybody to that of the blackbody, both at the same temperature (and wave length, and angle…). Some targets will not be Planckian, but have a spectral distribution that is different. If you want to measure temperature of those, you need to measure the emissivity with the same instrument and at a temperature reasonably close to the one you will measure on the target later.

So, of course, the whole principle behind the greenhouse effect is that shorter wavelengths from the sun penetrates the atmosphere easily, whereas the re-radiated power—being at a longer wavelength—is reflected back at a higher degree. I have no dispute about that fact. It is reasonable. So I think the Figure 1 you refer to is correct in principle. My immediate question is raised regarding the numbers in there though. The remaining 0.9 W/m2 seems awfully close to what I would assume to be the inaccuracies in the numbers input to calculate it. You are balancing on a very thin knifes edge with such big numbers as inputs for reaching such a small one. An error of +/- 0.5% on each measurement would potentially throw it off quite a bit, in the worst case. But I don’t know what they use to measure this, only that all the instruments I use have much less accuracy than that. But with long integration times…well, maybe…but there may be an issue there.

KLC: I am interested in some rather expensive thermopile-based radiation detectors called pyrgeometers (an example is the KippZonen CGR 3 instrument http://www.kippzonen.com/?product/16132/CGR+3.aspx).

If a piece of equipment like this is pointed into the nighttime sky and reads something like 300W/m2 of downwelling IR radiation, what is it actually measuring? If I built a test rig from IR-emitting lightbulbs calibrated to emit 300W/m2 and placed this over the pyrgeometers, would I get the same reading?

MC: “What is it actually measuring?” Well, probably a voltage from those thermopiles…and that signal has to be calibrated to a bunch of blackbody reference sources to covert it either to temperature or blackbody equivalent radiation.

Your experiment will fail, though! If you want to do something like that, you have to look at a target emitting a blackbody equivalent spectrum, which is what the instrument should be calibrated to. IR light bulbs emitting 300W/m2 is simply impossible, because 300W/m2 corresponds to a very low temperature! Use S-B’s law and try it yourself. Like this: room temp, 20°C = 293K. The radiated power from that is 293K raised to the power of 4. Then multiply with sigma, the constant in S-B’s law, which is 5.67*10-8, and you get 419 W/m2 or something like that, it varies with how many decimals you use for absolute zero when you convert to Kelvin. For 300 W/m2 radiation I get -23.4°C at 300 W/m2 when I calculate it (yes, minus!). Pretty cool light bulb.

I don’t know what your point is with that experiment, but if it is to check their calibration you need a lot more sophisticated blackbody reference sources if you want to do it at that temperature. But you could do a test at room temperature though. Just build a spherical object with the inside painted with flat black paint, make a small hole in it, just big enough for your sensor, and measure the temperature inside that sphere with a thermocouple, on the surface. Keep it in a stable room temperature at a steady state as well as you can and convert the temperature to radiation using S-B’s law. You should get the same as the instrument. Any difference will be attributable to inaccuracy in the thermocouple you use and/or the tested instrument. Remember that raising to the power of 4 exaggerates errors in the input a lot!

I hope I have been able to clarify things a little bit, or at least caused some creative confusion. When I teach thermography I find that the more you learn the more confused you get, but on a higher level. Every question answered raises a few more, which grows the confusion exponentially. It makes the subject interesting, though.

Let me know if you need any more help with your project!

KLC: I found your paper because one of the FLIR divisions is local and I was searching their site for reference information about IR radiation. I know what a 100W IR lamp feels like because I have one in my bathroom. If someone tells me there is 300W/m2 of IR power coming from space, and I hold out my hand…I expect to feel it. What am I missing?

MC: Yeah, you put your hand in front of a 100W bulb, but how big is your hand…not a square meter, I’m sure. It is per area unit, that is one thing you are missing. The 100W of the bulb is the electrical power consumption, not the emitted power of the visual light from it. That’s why florescent energy-saving lamps as opposed to incandescent bulbs give much more visual light per electrical Watt, because they limit the radiation to the visual part of the spectrum and lose less in the IR, which we cannot see anyway. The body absorbs both IR and visual, but a little less visual.

And, here is the other clue. Your light bulb radiation in your bathroom is added to that of the room itself, which is 419 W/m2, if the room is 20°C. Your 300 W/m2 from space is only that. You will feel those 300 W/m2, sure. It will feel like -25°C radiating towards your hand. But you don’t feel that cold because your hand is in warmer air, receiving heat (or losing less) from there too.

Actually, we cannot really feel temperature—that is a misconception. Our bodies feel heat flow rate and adjust the temperature accordingly. It is only the hypothalamus inside the brain that really has constant temperature. If you are standing nude in your bathroom, your body will radiate approximately 648 W/m2 and the room 419 W/m2, so you lose 229 W/m2. That is what you feel as being cooled by the room, from radiation only. Conduction and convection should be added of course. The earth works the same way—lose some, gain some. It is that balance that is being argued in the whole global warming debate.

KLC: I still feel like I’m missing something. IR heat lamps are pretty efficient, maybe 90%? Let’s pick a distance of 1 meter and I want to create a one-square meter flooded with an additional 300W/m2. It must be additional irradiation, doesn’t it? That’s going to take a good bunch of lamps and I would feel this heat. However, I go outside and hold out my hand. It’s cold. There’s no equivalent of 300W/m2 heater in addition to whatever has heated the ambient air.

Perhaps I’m puzzled by something that is more like a flux…something that just is as a side-effect of a temperature difference and not really something that is capable of doing any work or as a vehicle for transporting heat energy.

It’s a canard of climate science that increasing atmospheric CO2 from 390PPM to 780PPM will raise the earth’s surface temperature by about 1°C (expanded to 3°C by positive feedbacks). From my way of thinking, the only thing CO2 can do is increase coupling to space…it certainly can’t store or trap energy or increase the earth’s peak or 24-hour average temperature.

Any comments are welcome.

MC: Efficiency of a lamp depends on what you want, if heat is what want then they are 100% efficient, because all electrical energy will be converted to heat, the visible light as well, when it is absorbed by the surrounding room. If visible light is required, a light bulb loses a lot of heat compared to an energy saving lamp. Energy cannot be created or destroyed—first law of thermodynamics.

When you say W/m2 you ARE in fact talking about a flux (heat flow is what will be in W). If you have two objects radiating towards each other, the heat flow direction will be from the hotter one, radiating (emitting) more and absorbing less, to the cooler one, which radiates less and absorbs more (second law of thermodynamics). The amount of radiation emitted from each of them depends on two things ONLY, the temperature of the object and its emissivity. So radiation is not a side effect to temperature, it is THE EFFECT. Anything with a temperature will radiate according to it, and emissivity. (If something is hotter than 500°C we get incandescence, emission of visible light.) Assuming an emissivity of unity, which is what everyone seems to do in this debate, the radiation (flux. integrated from zero to infinity) will be equal to what can be calculated by Stefan-Boltzmann’s law, which is temperature in Kelvin, raised to the fourth power, multiplied by that constant sigma. It’s that simple!

With regard to your thought experiment, it is always easier to calculate what an object emits than what it absorbs, because emission will be spreading diffusely from an object, so exactly where it ends up is difficult to predict. I am not sure where you are aiming with that idea, but it does not seem to be an easy experiment to do in real life, at least not with limited resources.

CO2 is a pretty powerful absorber of radiated energy, that fact is well known. Water vapor is an even stronger absorber. In the climate debate it is also considered a reflector, which probably also true, because that is universal. Everything absorbs and reflects to a degree. So I guess that the feedback you mention has to do with the fact that increasing temperature increases the amount of water vapor, which increases absorption, and so on. But my knowledge is pretty much limited to what happens down here on earth, because that is what matters when we measure temperature using infrared radiation. However, it is important to remember, again, that we talk about different spectral bands, the influx is concentrated around a peak in the visual band and the outgoing flux is around 10 micrometer in the infrared band, and the absorption may not be the same.

With so many scientists arguing about the effects of CO2 I am not the one to think I have the answers. I really don’t know what the truth is. And the problem that all these scientists have is that they will never be able to test if their theories are correct, because the time spans are too long. For a theory to be scientifically proven, it has to be stipulated and tested, and the test must be repeatable and give the same results in successive tests for the theory to be proven.

If not, it is not science, it is guessing.

More like a horoscope…

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February 13, 2011 12:26 pm

Interesting. Now I am confused at a higher level. Murray

Ian W
February 13, 2011 12:35 pm

When water vapor in the atmosphere condenses into liquid water and then changes state again and becomes ice, it gives off latent heat for both state changes.
Does that latent heat release follow Stefan-Boltzmann’s radiative equation ?

Dennis Wingo
February 13, 2011 12:36 pm

With so many scientists arguing about the effects of CO2 I am not the one to think I have the answers. I really don’t know what the truth is. And the problem that all these scientists have is that they will never be able to test if their theories are correct, because the time spans are too long. For a theory to be scientifically proven, it has to be stipulated and tested, and the test must be repeatable and give the same results in successive tests for the theory to be proven.
Now that is a wise statement. As someone who designs temperature measurement systems (principally for spacecraft) I have always been amused that the AGW community can make the statement that they can use an instrument with 0.5 degree accuracy and get 0.001 degree temperature variation out of it.
In designing thermal control systems for spacecraft you have to be incredibly sensitive to the absorptivity/emissivity (a/e ratio). If you get this even slightly wrong in spacecraft design, you either run the equilibrium temperature too high and it will fail, or too low and it will fail.
MC makes the observation that the radiated temperature is 100% dependent upon emissivity, which is correct, but I have never seen this really integrated into AGW models, they simply use a blackbody approximation, which is a terrible reference in that this varies wildly around the world.
Also, the models do not take into account the dramatic differences in resulting temperature based upon altitude, especially in desert regions of the globe.
A lot of physics modeling operates by making simplifying assumptions, but how many of these assumptions are testable and repeatable?
This is the basis of a lot of my skepticism on the models involved.

David Ball
February 13, 2011 12:36 pm

“The only thing Co2 can do is increase the coupling to space”. Thereby having a cooling effect. Good stuff. I would love to hear what Dr. Lindzen has to say about this. If I am not mistaken, this is what he has been saying.

ferd berple
February 13, 2011 12:36 pm

Great comment:
“For a theory to be scientifically proven, it has to be stipulated and tested, and the test must be repeatable and give the same results in successive tests for the theory to be proven. If not, it is not science, it is guessing.”
Why is it that leading climate scientists have tried to hide their data and methods? In what way are such tests repeatable? In what way have they stood the test of time?

Calvi36
February 13, 2011 12:42 pm

Excellent dialogue Anthony. I found it quite gripping as it explained quite a lot for me. Many Thanks.

February 13, 2011 12:42 pm

MC: For 300 W/m2 radiation I get -23.4°C at 300 W/m2 when I calculate it (yes, minus!). Pretty cool light bulb.
300 W/m² is more like -3.3°C (26°F). It is still cold though. At -23.4°C (-10°F) black body radiation is only 220 W/m².

chemman
February 13, 2011 12:57 pm

Good post, thanks. The one area I struggle with is the reflector part. Do the “green house gas” molecules absorb and re-radiate energy? Yes. Is it like a reflector? Questionable. Since molecules are 3-dimensional and constantly in motion “green house gases” will re-radiate IR energy in 3 dimensions not just back at the earth like a reflector. Again it just may be the weakness of the terms used that is throwing me.

dp
February 13, 2011 12:59 pm

The confusion of temperature vs energy is an interesting one. I’ve attempted to explain how it works by the following. Place a sheet of paper above a surface. In that sheet is a 6″ hole through which passes sunlight. That light lands on a thermometer which records the temperature. It is intuitively obvious the temperature will remain the same if we move the paper and thermometer around the immediate area so we determine there is a fixed relationship between the sun and the thermometer.
Now we place a 6″ lens over the paper and by good fortune the focus point is exactly on the thermometer. We know the same amount of energy is entering the lens as entered the hole in the paper but the temperature is likely to cause the thermometer to explode. The energy is concentrated.
This is clearly not a tale told to people of science with any expectation of creating revelation but it helps the grand kids to understand the relationship between heat and energy.

February 13, 2011 1:00 pm

It seems that MC knows the subject matter extremely well. It also seems that he says you cannot be certain what is really going on with IR and CO2 in the atmosphere, despite those who seem to be absolutely certain.
Food for thought indeed!

Jim D
February 13, 2011 1:04 pm

MC puts KLC right on a few of his misconceptions. I only fault MC’s terminology where he uses the word ‘reflected’ for IR from the sky, when in fact it is emitted. This is probably just loose wording on his part, but there is a scientific distinction.

Charles Nelson
February 13, 2011 1:06 pm

Absolutely brilliant…thank you. I like the term ‘increase earth’s coupling with space’ I have been trying to explain this to the numpties for ever.
One question I ask CO2 Warmists is, ‘have you ever noticed the outside temperature when flying on a plane at cruising altitude…-30 to -60 degrees C. right? Have you ever looked down and wondered what is happening at the top of the cloud layer…heat loss right? So if the atmosphere was to get warmer wouldn’t these clouds simply rise a little higher because of convection and lose their energy through radiation into the vast reservoir of coldness above?
Interestingly I find that when I use words like radiation and convection they tend to glaze over and lose interest. In fact I don’t think that ‘science’ matters that much to believers…
Keep up the good work guys.

pat
February 13, 2011 1:25 pm

Interesting.

Domenic
February 13, 2011 1:30 pm

I am an IR expert, 20+ years in the field.
CO2 is an IR absorber of only narrow wavelength bands of IR.
Water vapor is a much more stronger IR absorber because it absorbs very large wavelength bands of IR.
In addition, water vapor is approx 3.5% of the atmosphere or 35000 ppm. (That’s a global average. At the poles the air is drier. In the tropics, the air is much wetter.)
CO2 is only about 390 ppm.
So, water vapor from a ppm point of view is probably 100X greater in effect as a greenhouse gas from an atmospheric percentage only compared to CO2. (I rounded up slightly because the tropics have more effect than the polar regions, having more water vapor to absorb and store solar energy.)
In addition, a molecule of H2O is also quite a few multiples greater in absorption of IR compared to a molecule of CO2.
Take a look at absorption spectra for H2O: http://webbook.nist.gov/cgi/cbook.cgi?ID=C7732185&Units=SI&Type=IR-SPEC&Index=1#IR-SPEC
For CO2: http://webbook.nist.gov/cgi/cbook.cgi?ID=C124389&Units=SI&Type=IR-SPEC&Index=1#IR-SPEC
Just eyeballing these two NIST absorption spectra curves for H2O and CO2, it appears H2O may be at least 10X greater at absorption per molecule than CO2 is.
Thus, the comparative effects on ‘global’ warming, changes in H2O composition in the atmostphere are probably 1000X greater than CO2 changes in terms of contribution to ‘greenhouse effect’.
give or take a bit for some error =>>>>> approximately 1000 TIMES!!!!
CO2 is a non-issue compared to water in the atmosphere.

Schadow
February 13, 2011 1:30 pm

In the 1950’s, I was working on the Sidewinder air-to-air missile at the Naval Weapons Center at China Lake, CA. Sidewinder’s guidance system is built around an infrared sensor. I remember all the “gee whiz” stuff that was observed during the sensor’s testing, e.g., it would lock on to a quarter moon in the middle of a hot summer day and even Venus at night. The sensor has undergone much improvement since those days and advanced versions of the missile are still seen under-wing on today’s combat aircraft.
Not much to do with this topic but just an interesting side-note on the practical uses of infrared technology.

Domenic
February 13, 2011 2:01 pm

As long as we’re on the subject, most people don’t realize that the most accurate CO2 measuring devices also are IR based. They utilize those narrow bandwidths of CO2 IR absorption to measure the amount of CO2 in an atmospheric air sample.
A while ago, I took a look at the history of the supposed pristine CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa. I pulled up two papers (Keeling 1960, and Thoning 1989) describing the methods, calibration protocol followed, etc.
They have been following very good protocol. However, they have to constantly calculate out the effects of the nearby Mauna Loa volcanic activity. Mostly during night times, due to the prevailing winds, the CO2 measuring devices do jump showing dramatic increases in CO2 from the volcanoes. They supposedly developed algorithms to eliminate those errors. I haven’t looked at those yet.
HOWEVER, that activity from Mauna Loa volcanoe, has another effect that I HAVE NOT SEEN THEM TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION.
If Mauna Loa volcanoe is potent enough to send their CO2 measurements skyward, that means that WARM AIR from the volcano at night, is also affecting their temperature data. It’s the same warm air that contains increased CO2. And I would bet it also has biased their night time temperature data. BUT THERE IS NO MENTION THAT THEY HAVE FACTORED THAT WARM AIR EFFECT FROM MAUNA LOA VOLCANOE OUT OF THEIR TEMPERATURE RECORDS!
In my opinion, the temperature data from Mauna Loa station is greatly suspect from what I can see.

DirkH
February 13, 2011 2:28 pm

Berényi Péter says:
February 13, 2011 at 12:42 pm
“300 W/m² is more like -3.3°C (26°F). It is still cold though. At -23.4°C (-10°F) black body radiation is only 220 W/m².”
Gives “warmist” a whole new meaning. Co2 increases might even increase the temp to -2.3 deg C or so.

Steve Reynolds
February 13, 2011 2:32 pm

Ken, I’m glad you are listening to someone that knows what he is talking about. I’ll claim to be somewhat of an expert here as well (I design the IR sensors that go into the kinds of instruments you are talking about).
I agree with everything MC said except (as Jim D noted) that IR is not reflected by CO2, it is absorbed and then re-emitted in all directions.

Mark Wagner
February 13, 2011 2:35 pm

Since molecules are 3-dimensional and constantly in motion “green house gases” will re-radiate IR energy in 3 dimensions not just back at the earth
I doubt that Co2 re-radiates much at all. As soon as the CO2 molecule absorbs any radiation, 90% are immediately quenched by contact with other molecules in air, primarily nitrogen. The other molecules don’t “radiate” in the sense that CO2 does, with bending molecular bonds. They just convect and carry the heat up and away.
I’ve never seen any science that directly addresses quenching of “warmed” CO2 to other atmospheric gasses prior to “re-radiation.”

February 13, 2011 2:36 pm

>>
The remaining 0.9 W/m2 seems awfully close to what I would assume to be the inaccuracies in the numbers input to calculate it. You are balancing on a very thin knifes edge with such big numbers as inputs for reaching such a small one. An error of +/- 0.5% on each measurement would potentially throw it off quite a bit, in the worst case.
<<
This is a major problem with Trenberth, Fasullo, and Kiehl 2009. They use the same atmospheric window value of 40 W/m^2 as they do in Kiehl and Trenberth 1997.
There is a minor problem with cloud cover. The cloud cover is supposedly 62%. KT 1997 combines three cloud layers (49%, 6%, & 20%) to get that figure. They call it “random overlap,” whatever that means. It looks like an application of the Inclusion-Exclusion principle. I get 61.6% which rounds to 62%. Their famous energy diagram (fig. 7 in KT 1997 and fig. 1 in TFK 2009) should state: “62% cloud cover assumed.”
After calculating 62% for the global cloud cover, the term “cloudy” is ambiguous throughout the rest of KT 1997. Every time you see “cloudy,” does KT 1997 mean 100% cloudy, 62% cloudy, or something else?
My favorite computation is the value for the atmospheric window, and I quote from KT 1997:
“The estimate of the amount leaving via the atmospheric window is somewhat ad hoc. In the clear sky case, the radiation in the window amounts to 99 W/m^2, while in the cloudy case the amount decreases to 80 W/m^2, showing that there is considerable absorption and re-emission at wavelengths in the so-called window by clouds. The value assigned in Fig. 7 of 40 W/m^2 is simply 38% of the clear sky case, corresponding to the observed cloudiness of about 62%. This emphasizes that very little radiation is actually transmitted directly to space as though the atmosphere were transparent.”
This is really sloppy math. The term “cloudy” is again ambiguous. If KT 1997’s cloudy term means 62%, then the correct window value is 80 W/m^2. If they mean 80 W/m^2 is a 100% cloudy value then they should interpolate between 99 W/m^2 and 80 W/m^2 and get something like 87 W/m^2. Apparently the 80 W/m^2 cloudy value is thrown in as a detractor, because they interpolate between 99 W/m^2 and 0 W/m^2. Apparently, they obtain 37.62 W/m^2 and round up to 40 W/m^2.
That’s a slop of at least 2.38 W/m^2 (ignoring the other larger values). The 0.9 W/m^2 seems a little nonsensical to me.
Jim

February 13, 2011 2:37 pm

I suggest that Dr Roy Spencer is asked to comment on these ideas as they seem to impinge on his area of work.

Bruckner8
February 13, 2011 2:42 pm

The narrative is so clear, practical, non-confrontational, unemotional and straight-forward that I came away thinking “I *almost* understood what he said.” He brought up the measurement accuracy again too, which I posted about in my first post on WUWT a couple years ago, and another commenter has chimed in with his professional experience.
Are there any matter-of-fact scientific narrative examples similar to this on the AGW side?

Steve Reynolds
February 13, 2011 2:43 pm

Domenic, you have a major error in your calculation: you used IR absorption data for _liquid water_, not gas phase water vapor!
Even when you correct that, you need to take into account that absorption reaches near 100% in narrow spectral lines, so adding more does not increase absorption linearly. That is why the effect of CO2 only increases approximately as the log of concentration.

Tom_R
February 13, 2011 2:49 pm

>> Jim D says:
February 13, 2011 at 1:04 pm
MC puts KLC right on a few of his misconceptions. I only fault MC’s terminology where he uses the word ‘reflected’ for IR from the sky, when in fact it is emitted. This is probably just loose wording on his part, but there is a scientific distinction. <<
His statement was that there's always reflection. In a sense, that's true here. Whenever you have a change in the index of refraction you get a reflection at the boundary. I'm not sure how that applies to the continuous change as the atmosphere thins with altitude, but there might be some reflection from that.

G. Karst
February 13, 2011 2:51 pm

Jim D:
“I only fault MC’s terminology where he uses the word ‘reflected’ for IR from the sky, when in fact it is emitted.”
I believe the reflection, re-emission, back-scattering terms are describing the same phenomenon, depending on the discipline. In the field of optics, it is considered reflection. From quantum physics we have no such phenomenon, as photons are absorbed and re-emitted. Even in nuclear reactors, old terminology, referred to the “moderator” as a “reflector”. It is a problem during inter-disciplinary discussions, especially when dealing with photons which can be regarded as both particle and wave. Personally, I prefer the term back-scattering as most descriptive of the term/process. GK

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