Record cold expected.
The Al Gore effect as well as the testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday has caused a massive chunk of Arctic air to descend from Western Canada into the United States. How do temperatures 6o-70F degrees below average sound to folks along the Canadian border? During the next 10-days (or more!), a hemispheric realignment of the large-scale atmospheric circulation will cause a significant decrease in temperatures over North America and Europe. If this regime reinforces itself during the next few weeks, and a negative Arctic Oscillation phase strengthens, the brutally cold temperatures will provide a dramatic reminder that winter is cold regardless of “global warming”. I anticipate plenty of fossil fuel use coming up.
Weather weenie discussion after the break w/maps
With strong anti-cyclones developing over the North Pacific and North Atlantic at the same time, a highly amplified pattern is developing over the Northern Hemisphere. At the permeable barrier separating the troposphere and stratosphere lies the tropopause. On the tropopause, which is often identified by a constant potential vorticity (PV) surface of 2-PV units, one can plot the potential temperature (Θ) to identify upper-level synoptic phenomena such as the jet stream, Rossby-wave breaking, anticyclones, and cut-off lows. From these so-called “dynamic-tropopause” maps, it is relatively easy to see what’s going on.
The warmer potential temperatures ( Θ ) on the tropopause mean it is higher in the atmosphere since Θ increases with height, unlike regular temperature which decreases through the troposphere (before increasing in stratosphere due to ozone absorption of UV). Thus, tropical and subtropical origin air has much higher dynamic tropopause Θ than the Arctic vortex air which is signified by the gray and purple colors on the map above. Often the difference is well over 100-120 degrees Kelvin.
The sharp gradients of dynamic tropopause Θ are typically where the planet’s jet streams are located. During the 180-hour forecast period, the subtropical jet stream is easily identified over the central United States in conjunction with a powerful storm system. The counter-clockwise turning of the Θ represents cyclonic circulations while the opposite, clockwise circulations are associated with anti-cyclonic circulations or ridges.
The flow for the next week comes straight out of the Arctic over North America. Temperatures will easily sink below zero in many places and a hard freeze is likely for a lot of the US. Europe does not escape the bitter onslaught, either. I provide a couple maps below from my FSU website that show the temperatures for the next 180-hours, and the deviations from climatology.
All of this discussion is on the synoptic scale or days to a week time scale. Forecasts longer than this are not particularly skillful, so it is not clear how the La Nina will evolve over the next month. Furthermore, no two La Ninas act the same so averaging together previous events is not particularly skillful either. Main point: the atmosphere rarely matches the “mean state”. Perhaps Heidi Cullen can explain it better than I — after all she was on the Weather Channel.
Kinda makes me whimsically wish the warmistas were right. I hate the cold!
From the last map/animation, follow the stats at the top of the map. Using the newly released NCEP CFSR reanalysis dataset of 2-meter temperatures from 1979-2009, I compute a climatology based upon the average of the past 31-years using a 21-day centered mean. The deviation from this climatology is then area-averaged for the globe, midlatitudes, and tropics using the most current NCEP GFS deterministic forecast model output, which uses a very similar numerical weather prediction model as the NCEP CFSR reanalysis.
The Northern Hemisphere is currently a couple degrees F above the 31-year average, but gives it all back and more during the next 180-hours. The globe will be “below normal” for the first time in a while, likely wiping out the string of anomalously high temps measured by NOAA…
Ryan, many of the readers will find “anti-cylones” to be confusing. Please reduce the weather weenie speak a few notches.
Here in Europe we ain’t no chickensh*ts either.
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-popup/archiv/Europe/tmin2m/2010111712/nothumb/on/312/ch/a9782f0477b99be6d84d0247b1ee5653.html
What’s the prognosis for the UK? Meteogroup and Accuweather seem to be forecasting central Europe to bear the brunt, but Blighty will be spared.
Ryan, disregard my earlier comment. I had only read as far as anti-cyclone and I hadn’t realized how far you into weather speak you actually went in the remainder of the paragraph.
[ryan: consider it like WGN meteorologist Tom Skilling’s forecasts where he shows a zillion maps that graduate students would only appreciate]
Anthony,
An early Christmas present for me?
No, you shouldn’t have.
No, REALLY you should not have!
REPLY: The Author is Dr. Ryan Maue
Bob Tisdale says:
November 18, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Ryan, many of the readers will find “anti-cylones” to be confusing. Please reduce the weather weenie speak a few notches.
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Bob, one should always offer a solution to a problem pointed out, when possible, so, I propose and addendum to your request!
Please see
Heidi, ehem, excuse me, Dr. Cullen for the proper monosyllabic synonyms.Beware the cold.
If it is warm, you have longer cropping seasons. If it is warm, you have more moisture to water the crops.
If it is cold, you have shorter cropping seasons. Crops cannot grow if the soil is covered by ice.
Beware the cold.
Here in Toronto, we’ll escape most of the blast thanks to La Nina. I have my snow shovel ready, though, because January could be a bit snowy.
But of course it is going to get cold. We saw just this week a “wonderful paper’ explaining how global warming oops climate disruption is caused the NH to cool. It is so obvious isn’t it?
This is consistant with my CAGW models!!!
I wonder how this will compare to the heat wave in Russia and media play time…
weather or not…
Yarmy says:
November 18, 2010 at 1:40 pm
What’s the prognosis for the UK? Meteogroup and Accuweather seem to be forecasting central Europe to bear the brunt, but Blighty will be spared.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Getting colder as a northeasterly sets in. Early rain clearing southwest England on Saturday. Drier elsewhere. Some sunshine, but rain showers spreading to the northeast with snow on northern hills.
Updated: 1505 on Thu 18 Nov 2010
UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Nov 2010 to Thursday 2 Dec 2010:
A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells in central and western parts, but cloudier with showers in the east, perhaps frequent at first. The showers will be wintry over hills, particularly in the north. It will gradually turn colder through next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme continues into December for most parts, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather, although western parts may start to turn less cold.
Updated: 1149 on Thu 18 Nov 2010
UK Outlook for Friday 3 Dec 2010 to Friday 17 Dec 2010:
Relatively cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be around average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with locally frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for many areas.
Updated: 1154 on Thu 18 Nov 2010
It’s all just further incontrovertible evidence of wilder weather and climate disruption which naturally causes polar bears to go hungry and skin thickening among climate scientists-
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/scientists-warn-to-expect-wilder-weather/story-e6frfku0-1225956156986
See? Proof that northern latitudes will get colder! Worse than we all thought! Run for the
hillsseassouthern latitudes….. just run around in circles!!!The Northern Hemisphere is currently a couple degrees F above the 31-year average, but gives it all back and more during the next 180-hours. The globe will be “below normal” for the first time in a while, likely wiping out the string of anomalously high temps measured by NOAA…
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I wouldn’t bank on it, methinks you are seriously under-estimating Dr. Hansen’s “resourcefulness”.
Look for a host of “2010 – The hottest year ever” headlines come mid-January, even if half the Northern Hemisphere is buried under six foot of snow…
Man even on these maps it looks like it is still going to be quite warm here in South Florida. I am sick of the warm weather, it doesn’t feel like Fall yet! I want my cool Fall breezes!
For reference, where I am is nice and orange in Figure 2.
Dr Maue,
Thanks for the post – those maps look cool …
The first interest my wife of 30 years showed in AGW, or any of my other science interests, was when I showed her a photo of Ryan!
I love you too xx.
Absent the 1,500-year Younger Dryas “cold shock”, an impact-induced period of glacial rebound ending about BC 7200 (9,200 years-before-present), Earth’s current Holocene Interglacial Epoch would likely have ended c. AD 450, coincident with the Fall of Rome.
Now on the the threshold of a 70-year “dead sun” Maunder Minimum similar to that of 1645 – 1715, when wolves froze to death in Rhineland forests and Louis XIV’s wine-goblets frosted over during banquets at Versailles, resurgent Ice Time threatens after decades of climate cultists’ sabotage of global energy economies.
Warmists are Luddite sociopaths, Thanatists who “love death more than life” as their mullah-dullah confreres are wont to put it… either objective, rational discourse wins out, and soon, or worldwide mega-deaths will be the consequence.
Al Gore will be in The Netherlands for his doctor honoris causa in Tilburg on nov 23rd.
This comment is a bit off thread, but significant in the overall issue.
The city of Hamburg was yesterday named Europe’s greenest city, even though it is currently building the largest coal fired power station in Germany. !
If you want confirmation of the press release, you will find it on the TV show “The Journal” broadcast every week day out of Berlin, and seen in Australia on SBS TV.
The Germans aren’t going to freeze in the winter darkness, unlike some others in the world of the Greens AGW religion, where power cost increases are going to cause significant unnecessary pain for the less well off.. The Germans believe in the green concept, BUT they employ common sense on power issues, it seems.
James Sexton says:
November 18, 2010 at 1:51 pm
Please see Heidi, ehem, excuse me, Dr. Cullen for the proper monosyllabic synonyms.
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Bob never fails to point out the obvious….
….and James can always figure out a way to make me laugh out loud
Thank you both!
We’ve had a spectacular La Nina autumn here in the Denver area and I hope it continues despite the looming cold stated in the article.
Below zero – brrrrrrr!
The temperature maps should be compared along side water vapor maps. I think it would give a better picture of the relationship between the two.