New Temperature Record at BWI: atmospheric or asphaltic?

UPDATE: Another new record at BWI on July 7th:


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
522 PM EDT WED JUL 07 2010

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BALTIMORE MD...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1993.

A new record high temperature was set in Baltimore today…

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
0547 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BALTIMORE MD...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1999.

The temperature is measured here at the BWI airport at this NOAA ASOS. It doesn’t look bad from this photo provided by NOAA. In fact with the exception of the building, it looks reasonably well sited. More photos here.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/stations/photos/20009551/20009551a-000.jpg

But when you look at this BWI ASOS station from the air, an entirely different picture emerges.

BWI ASOS looking WEST - click to enlarge

From Bing Maps, see interactive view here.

Here’s the East looking view:

BWI ASOS looking EAST - click to enlarge

Note how close the NOAA ASOS station is to the asphalt accessway, and how it is surrounded on 3 sides by runway and taxiways.

Here’s a ground level view showing the asphalt accessway:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/stations/photos/20009551/20009551a-270.jpg

But also notice the vent in the ILS instrumentation building. That’s an exhaust vent. When the wind blows from the NW, it will carry any waste heat from that vent (note it points downward) directly into the ASOS sensor array, as shown in this zoomed aerial view from Bing Maps below:

BWI ASOS looking west - note path of arrow from ILS building

Interactive view of above here.

Note the direction of the wind when the ASOS recorded 105° F per this screen cap of the NWS hourly observations for BWI:

BWI Hourly Observations from NWS

The ILS waste heat, combined with the asphalt proximity of the accessway, as well as the runway and taxiway on three sides contributed to the new high temperature record, in my opinion.

When you look at other stations high temps (which I plotted) in the area on the same day, the 105° F record high stands alone near Baltimore, though one other airport, Frederick, also with ASOS measured the same 105° F high. The Baltimore downtown Tmax (at the Museum/Science Center) was 103°F.

Other high temperatures in the area surrounding BWI - click to enlarge

Source of observed high temps: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/observations.htm and http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

From the website CCF, who also had an interest in the issue, it was reported that some other private stations nearby also didn’t hit 105.

Nearby Weatherbug stations, which are considered to be fairly accurate, were all lower:

  • Columbia hit 102F at Clemens Crossing ES.
  • Ellicott City hit 100F at Veterans ES.
  • Owings Mills hit 100F at The Harbour School.

This suggests that BWI stands alone in the 105 temperature for this area.

Since the Frederick, MD Airport ASOS (nearly 40 miles away) also hit 105, let’s have a look at it:

Frederick, MD Municipal Airpoirt AWOS looking East - note placement of sensors and ILS building

Interactive view from Bing maps here. Note that this station while an older style AWOS instead of ASOS, also has it’s sensors sited near/over asphalt and near the waste heat of the ILS building and it’s electronics. Just like BWI. I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised.

And here’s the observations from Frederick:

NWS Obsrvations for Frederick Municipal Airport

While the winds at this time weren’t in the direction that would pull waste heat from the ILS building, I’ll point out that the KFDK AWOS sensors are sited directly over the asphalt, where the BWI ASOS has asphalt very close by. This is great for keeping weeds down and mowing, not so great for measuring temperature.

Washington National has similar siting over asphalt (or possibly dark crushed rock, but does not have an ILS electronics building nearby. It does have one feature though, the Potomac river is only 180 meters away.

Washington National Airport ASOS looking East - click to enlarge

Of course, the KDCA ASOS station isn’t far from a megaplex of tarmac, terminals, and aircraft.

Washington National Airport ASOS - click to enlarge

If you wonder if tarmac/taxiway/runways are capable of generating a lot of heat, this story from Albany, NY yesterday, on the same day the new record high was set at BWI, might be of interest:

click for original story source

Oh, and by the way, Albany’s airport also had a new record that same day:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT ALBANY NY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ONLY DROPPED
TO A LOW 76 DEGREES AT 509 AM JULY 6TH. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1911.

It takes some time for all that tarmac heat to dissipate. You can bet they didn’t have tarmac there in 1911. The high temp also got pretty warm:

TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         96    353 PM  97    1886  82     14       80
  MINIMUM         76    509 AM  47    1961  59     17       51

Sources: http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=aly

While this certainly isn’t an exhaustive survey, it does illustrate that the two highest reading airport stations today at BWI and FDK have siting issues.The BWI ASOS went in in 1995 according to the NCDC MMS Metadatabase. It set a new record of 101 for this date 4 years later. We can be certain that in the years prior, the station was not sited just like you see it now. Airports are dynamic engines of change.

Also from the CCF website:

Records go back to 1880 for Baltimore, so this is an impressive feat, and it has been done before. A temperature of 105F has been hit four other times in the the area’s, and many long ago. So these numbers should quell the talk of Global Warming with this hot summer.

Here are the four other dates:

  • June 29th, 1934
  • August 6th 1918
  • August 7th 1918
  • August 20th 1983

Another mark hit many times in Baltimore was 104F on these days:

  • July 3, 1898
  • July 16 1988
  • August 4th, 1930
  • July 6th: 101F in 1999* BROKEN TODAY with 105F
  • July 7th: 99F in 1993
  • July 8th: 100F in 1993
  • July 9th: 103F in 1936
  • July 10th: 107F in 1936 * Hottest of all time for Baltimore

The question is, are airport stations like this at BWI climate-worthy? I sincerely doubt it.

I’d like to share a story that I’m proud of. At ICCC4 in Chicago this past May, I gave my presentation on what I’ve learned from the surfacestations.org project and what is about to be published. One member of the audience came up to chat afterwards. I was surprised to see Dr. Harrison Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut, and the only geologist to walk on the moon. He said:

Anthony, I want you to know that you are spot on about these airport stations. I’ve seen them read up to 10 degrees warmer than the surroundings.  But that’s what they are supposed to read. Pilots need to know the runway conditions, and these stations measure that. Their primary mission is aviation, not climate.

A proud moment for me, having a man who was a hero of mine, whom I watched on Live  Lunar TV in high school, giving praise, but also stating the base truth of the matter. Climate monitoring is not part of the mission plan for airports, but they get co-opted for the task.

For example, BWI also has problems with snow records, which I’ve covered before:

BWI snow record rescinded: Another reason why airports aren’t the best place to measure climate data

Here’s some related reading about Baltimore’s other high reading climate (USHCN) station (now closed):

baltimore_table.jpg

Full story here:

How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore’s Rooftop USHCN Station

Another mark hit many times in Baltimore was 104F on these days:

  • July 3, 1898
  • July 16 1988
  • August 4th, 1930
  • July 6th:  101F in 1999* BROKEN TODAY with 105F
  • July 7th:  99F in 1993
  • July 8th:  100F in 1993
  • July 9th:  103F in 1936
  • July 10th: 107F in 1936 * Hottest of all time for Baltimore
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122 thoughts on “New Temperature Record at BWI: atmospheric or asphaltic?

  1. Meanwhile Alice Springs, in the middle of Australia, had its coldest maximum temperature on record yesterday: 6.3 deg Celsius, about 43 deg F. Think our thermometer is at the airport too. What can it all mean?

  2. In my London, UK, back yard I have two thermometers, both shaded but not enclosed in anything even faintly resembling a Stephenson Shield. The yard has no grass, just ornamental stone, blockwork and brick paving plus an ‘Oriental style’ (landlord’s description) pebble garden. No grass area and all flowers and shrubs are grown in ornamental pots.
    Strangely, despite my yard being what should be a mini-UHI, both thermometers agree with each other but only occaisonaly reach the daily Met Office forecast max or min temps – my readings show a flatter curve than the Met Office figures. What kind of environment are the Met Office instruments sited in?
    I also measure rainfall with a two simple calibrated collection flasks. These also agree, but rarely capture the quantity of rain forecast by the Met Office. Currently, the new desalination plant in London appears to be a very sensible project and will be called into service soon if the current lack of precipitation – a total of 11 cc in the previous 30 days – persists.

  3. Dave Richards says:
    July 7, 2010 at 1:44 am

    Meanwhile Alice Springs, in the middle of Australia, had its coldest maximum temperature on record yesterday: 6.3 deg Celsius, about 43 deg F. Think our thermometer is at the airport too. What can it all mean?
    Hi Dave

    It means that some opportunists can have a party with lots of homogenizing of data, feed that data into models, hmmnn then adjust the data to make it more “robust” or politically correct and feed the excitable result direct to media and before it’s casually examined for publication, scary “science” in action!! Except there are more an more science blogs looking at the issues.

    Then as in our case if you adjust historical records for by inventing “possible” rather than evidence based reasons, it becomes a magical pudding mix, add a few flavours of if’s, “perhaps”, something might happen (the scarier the better of course) and the recipe will bring you lots of riches in the form of research grants.

    Damn, I don’t want to be cynical, just a little sceptical …. BUT!

  4. Dont forget to add the increase in plane flights over the past few decases. Yes, there would have been big drops around 2001, but in general, aviation has bee increasing greatly over the past few decades.

  5. From this morning’s DC/Baltimore weather discussion:

    “SO FAR THIS YEAR /INCLUDING JULY 6TH/…BWI HAS RECORDED 24 CALENDAR
    DAYS WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE MOST
    FREQUENT NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS THAT OCCURRED BY JULY
    6TH AT BWI…SURPASSING THE 22 DAYS IN 1991. BWI SET A SIMILAR
    RECORD FOR NUMBER OF 100 DEGREE OR HIGHER TEMPERATURE DAYS TO DATE.
    WHILE THERE HAS BEEN TWO YEARS /1898 AND 1966/ WITH THREE 100 DEGREE
    HIGHS BY JULY 6TH…THERE HAS NEVER BEEN FOUR DAYS UNTIL 2010.”

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?%20%20site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1

  6. And of course, all these temps go into the big global stats to say “See, it is warmer”. The other temperature stats of the area would be ignored and trashed. (Deleted?)

    Yet to hear ANY media coverage of ANY cooler abnormalities.

  7. Dr. Harrison Schmidt
    Anthony, I want you to know that you are spot on about these airport stations. I’ve seen them read up to 10 degrees warmer than the surroundings. But that’s what they are supposed to read. Pilots need to know the runway conditions, and these stations measure that. Their primary mission is aviation, not climate.

    Warmists constantly tell me that this is the hottest decade on the record. I remind them that it is man-made global warming. I’m surprised at the faith warmists have about these stations. We are on WUWT constantly arguing about tenths of a degree and here we have tarmac and exhaust vents that, IMHO, can contribute a whole lot more that tenths of a degree. Yet they say that climate scientists can make the necessary ‘adjustments’. :o)

  8. I measure 196 ft to the taxiway and 247 ft to the runway. The ILS transmitter is putting out maybe 20 watts max, so aside from the asphalt walkway and the jet exhaust, that’s CRN 2.

    That toasty 192° tarmac sounds about right, as often as I’ve had to do the aircraft walkaround, but I wasn’t aware that we had to lighten our payloads because hot air had less lift than cold air. I always thought it had to do with hot air cutting back the available engine thrust.

  9. Question?

    Since man is the only species that produces vast amounts of heat through our comfort, daily activities and industry related activities, building materials, how much cooler would it be without this over an accumlative period of time?
    I know the graphs show a slightly elevated temp over extended period.
    But what would the graph show if all the heat we produced was subtracted?
    I would suspect a cooling trend.

  10. On question that we should ask about the Baltimore Airport station is: how long has it been around? Anomolies are calculated from each site. Has there been warming at this site during the last decade or two or was this particular site just put in this year? Perhaps this question was answered somewhere in the posting, but I missed it.

  11. Met Office forecasts could be quite different from the actual measured values, there is model bias and model uncertainty in their forecasts. Another issue is resolution Met Office models computed temperatures and precipitation over 1×1 km grid or 5x5km, so they obviously miss quite a bit of detail. You can see an example here
    http://www.nanowx.com/innovation.html , you would probably need something like uncoupled surface layer model to get more adequate values here is a nice example http://api.ning.com/files/a8ZZitQ2zfVaFICzYJYond7Qv7OnHRY7OzLfUkwd9Y0kAx9x*TjoaEXT*YtBQGD9tAJ5gb1dL*xWg2-nnCManh5v4KaP2BIN/CarpenterWSN09ExtendedAbstract.pdf

  12. Thanks, Smokey. That’s a very interesting link to some quite shocking information re attempts to black-list eminent scientists and to a sane and unbiased view of some historical temperature records which clearly demonstrate that there has been no discernable rise in temperatures in those places in the last century. I am driven to wonder, from my own observations, how many Warmists actually observe and record temp readings for themselves in a similar manner to my own very amateur efforts. If the Warmists did this on a long-term basis, they might begin to realise the impact of seasons, climate cycles and the historical records of phenomena such as volcanic activity and their impact on crop yields, how well livestock thrive, etc. I had the advantage of a rural upbringing during and after WWII and I have vivid memories of conversations between older members of the farming community about the huge influence and importance of climate cycles. Their economic survival depended on their climate knowledge in ways most urban dwellers would struggle to understand.
    Alexander

  13. Jimbo said “Yet they say that climate
    scientists can make the necessary `adjustments’.”

    Even if that is true, that only applies to average temperatures. There is no way to adjust these “record” highs.

  14. Does it go without saying that there was no asphalt in 1999? Or does it go without saying that the wind was NW then too?

  15. Weather:
    It’s been hot recently in Baltimore

    Climate:
    1970-2009 annual temp USHCN Baltimore, MD +0.30C/decade
    1970-2009 annual temp USHCN Chestertown, MD +0.26C/decade
    1970-2009 annual temp GISTEMP global +0.16C/decade
    1979-2009 annual temp RSS lower troposphere +0.15C/decade

  16. Some international pilots rank countries according to whether there is close or distant agreement between the ground station temperature reported before take off or landing at the airport, compared with the instruments in the aircraft.

    Any pro pilots here willing to venture a comment on which countries rank better than others? And what size the difference can be? I know of an A380 and an ex B747 pilot speaking highly of some smaller African countries.

  17. Has anyone taken, for example, a LIG / Stevenson Screen and an MMTS and put them in various places to detect relative performance? Like, oh, at an airport and under a tree?

    It would be interesting to review such a study. And to find out if a thermometer at the Airport is hotter than one in the bushes on a sunny day…

    If not, perhaps Anthony could put a screen on his driveway and one on his lawn and publish the comparative graphs….

  18. I don’t see a compass rose on that aerial image of Fredericksburg, so I assume north is at the top. That being my assumption, the recorded winds of 5 mph from the west WOULD have carried heat towards the sensors.

  19. Mike McMillan says:

    “That toasty 192° tarmac sounds about right, as often as I’ve had to do the aircraft walkaround, but I wasn’t aware that we had to lighten our payloads because hot air had less lift than cold air. I always thought it had to do with hot air cutting back the available engine thrust.”

    Actually it would be both: Warm air has less density, thus reducing lift as well as mass (and you want O2 for your engines) available per volume unit for your engines -> less power.

  20. I live +/- 20 miles from BWI. I don’t know about the 104 degrees………but it was hot yesterday……….Reminds me of the summer of 1993.

  21. Hi Anthony,
    I very much enjoyed your posts from down under, great job…
    I live about 15 miles southwest from BWI and my rural “unofficial” thermometer only reached 100 for about 1/2 hour…….. But, it felt like 105!
    Keep up the great work.
    pRadio – MD

  22. Here in Utah it was in the upper 60s (Brrr!) over the weekend, 80 monday, 74 lovely degrees yesterday.

  23. Nitpicking, I know, but I just don’t get it…

    How is this a northwestern?? The wind then ought to come from the northwest right?

    The arrow indicates a northeaster.

  24. Nice article Anthony. It’s very illustrative to see the nearby stations showing much lower temps at the same time and not hard to imagine this distorting the temp record by tenths of a degree over a hundred years.

    If the signal shows seven tenths of warming, how much is construction related.

  25. Anthony,
    Let me demo one of your UHI measuring kits. Send one my way and I will get to the bottom of the AHI (Airport Heat Island) effect at BWI. I work nearby.

    One other note, BWI has had a pretty big growth spurt. They have added two new terminal piers in the past 10 years as well as two very large parking garages, a few new runway projects and resurfacing. I estimate that BWI has doubled in size since the last record.

    JT

  26. This record is BS. I was in downtown Baltimore (a huge heat island) and it didn’t hit 105. It was, at max, 101 with surprisingly low humidity for Baltimore. There’s no way BWI was actually hotter than here. So, complete BS, just like the failed record snowfall at BWI ast winter (if you can remember that far back).

  27. Driving from DC to home (35 miles west) the temperature on the toll road was
    a pretty constant 104 F. I didn’t drive off the road to see if it was cooler.

  28. Right on, Anthony! As usual, damn good, enlightening sleuth-work.

    These surfacestations are so bad they reflect not only incompetence, but rather an agenda-driven malfeasance.

    On the Washington National pictures, yeah the Potomac is going to be no help this time of year.

    And the huge tarmac with runways being located to the west of the station is a witches brew for extraordinary readings, given they typical surface wind-direction in Mid-Atlantic heat waves of hot, downsloping west and northwest winds.

    Here’s a fun GOES water-vapor image of our back-door upper level cyclone knocking at the North Carolina coast.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

    It’s a battle, though, and that dolphin-shaped upper ridge is going to put up a fight.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  29. > Dr. Harrison Schmidt, Apollo 17 astronaut, and the only geologist to walk on the moon. …. A proud moment for me, having a man who was a hero of mine….

    I made a point of meeting Dr. Schmitt at the ICCC. While some other astronauts have science degrees, he was the only one whose mission emphasized science and he came back with the most interesting rock samples of all the missions. While there was nothing about me worth praise, he did suffer this fool gladly.

    BTW – you might want to fix how you spelled Schmitt….

  30. Here’s a breath of cool summer air from flyover country:

    “SALT LAKE CITY — There were no weather records set in the Salt Lake area over the holiday weekend, despite the unusually cool temperatures, but there were some records set in southern Utah.

    The Bryce Canyon Airport dipped to a record low of 31 degrees on Monday. That broke the old record of 32 degrees for July 5, set in 1978.

    Bullfrog also shivered with a 56-degree low that day, while the Cedar City Airport set a new low temperature record of 43 degrees.

    Bryce Canyon was even colder on the morning of July 4, with a 27-degree reading, three degrees below the previous all-time mark for Independence Day, set back in 1956.”

  31. It didn’t feel that way as high temperatures were at record lows in San Diego County today, says the National Weather Service. It was quite a contrast from the East Coast, where such big cities as New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore experienced record highs.

    A trough of low pressure and a thick marine layer kept most of the western half of the county cloaked in clouds for much of the day.

    The temperature only reached 62 degrees in Oceanside Harbor. The record “low high” for this date is 65. That record was set in 2002. The harbor averages a high of 74 degrees this time of year.

    They say record heat and permanent drought in the southwest.

  32. I have a little temp gauge on my screened in back porch. Setting it right next to the screen (actually touching the metal screen) resulted in a temp reading of 114 degrees yesterday. Moving it just 3 inches away from the metal screen lowered the temp to under 90 degrees. Elsewhere near the house, the temp struggled to reach into the low 80’s during the day and we dipped down below 40 last night. Temp gauges for weather pattern variation and climate change are fraught with problems wherever they are placed.

    In addition, that heat we are getting in the Eastern US is ENTIRELY explained by weather systems, as is the cold we are getting at night in the Western US. That these weather related temperatures are added to the global statistic and magically changed into AGW, is bogus science.

    At best, local weather added/averaged/homogenized together can only become weather pattern variation within a climate zone, nothing more. Can it ever become indicative of climate change? Yes, when the climate zone temperature range and weather patterns are breached on a consistent basis. For that to happen to climate zones, it would take a lot more than heavy breathing in the back seat of an SUV.

  33. Interesting idea, but how about some science to back it up. The asphalt heating certainly seems feasible but the exhaust air effect less so. What volume of exhaust air is coming from the shed and at what temperature? From the Bing map it looks like the shed is 25 ft away from the temp sensor. It seems to me the exhaust would have to be very hot indeed to raise the temp of a large volume of air from 100 to 105 degrees over a distance of 25 feet. Even allowing for asphalt heating and saying the exhaust air effect gives a 2 degree temp raise, that’s a lot of heating power coming from a small vent.

    REPLY: I never suggested it raised it from 100 to 105 degrees, that’s an assumption by you. I figure it adds maybe a degree at that distance. It is part of several factors of the location, just one piece of the puzzle. I have stood nearby these before, and they blow at a pretty good clip, but I have no volume/heat measurements. My point here is to demonstrate possible issues in hopes they’ll be investigated. I can’t just walk on to BWI and do these things without being tossed into the pokey. – Anthony

  34. While we are talking about weather station gaffes…..
    Saturday’s edition of The Times (July 3, 2010) – the newspaper that believes that all AGW skeptics are ‘village idiots’ – has inadvertently allowed one of its university cronies to trip over an outstretched editorial foot. Reader Stuart H. Monard wrote to Sally Baker’s Feedback column that he was “increasingly concerned about the fictional, nay, mendacious nature of your daily met and temperature reports for the Isle of Wight”.

    Bearing in mind that climate is not weather, I read on. Mr Monard demanded to know where the apparently erroneous reports were sourced. His problem, it appears, is that while the island (which lies just off the south coast of England) has been struggling through a sweltering heat wave, the Times has been reporting temperatures there of “a paltry, grudging, wintry 19C”. From his position, cowering in the shade, he demanded that the newspaper change its informants. “They are not to be relied upon”, he thundered.

    The ever helpful Sally Baker handed the enquiry over to Steve Dorling at Weatherquest, the company that provides the Times weather page, unaware that the strange creaking noise she could hear was the unseen opening of a climate change trap door. After explaining that the data comes from the official monitoring station at St Catherine’s Point on the south coast of the island, Dr. Dorling pointed out that ‘at this time of year”, sea temperature struggles to keep pace with daytime temperatures over the land and so it is perfectly possible to see a difference of several degrees across the island in the afternoon.

    Drawing closer to the edge of the abyss, he points out that “on a very hot day this difference is the reason we go to the coast, to escape oppressive heat”. (Gosh, who would have thought?). Then, he steps straight out: “It is useful to remind readers that temperature measurements are also strongly affected by whether they are made ‘in the shade’ (the official requirement) or in direct sunlight, and also by the height above ground”. Slam! The trapdoor shut, cutting off any screams from the unfortunate Dorling.

    And which academic institution houses Dr. Dorling and Weatherquest? Step forward the University of East Anglia, proud defender of neutrally-sited weather stations!

    …er…and one imagines….of the understated art of English irony……

  35. ROTFLMAO!!!!! Gotta love Meacham in the Blue Mountains of NE Oregon.

    Record Report

    000
    SXUS76 KPDT 061820
    RERPDT

    RECORD EVENT REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
    1120 AM PDT TUE JUL 6 2010

    …NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 6TH…

    NOTE: STATIONS MARKED WITH * INDICATE THAT THE STATION REPORTS ONCE
    PER DAY. FOR CONSISTENCY…THESE VALUES ARE CONSIDERED TO HAVE
    OCCURRED ON THE DAY THE OBSERVATION WAS TAKEN BUT MAY HAVE ACTUALLY
    OCCURRED (ESPECIALLY FOR MAX TEMPERATURE) ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.

    STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
    RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN

    MEACHAM, OR 36 / 2002 31 1948
    *MONUMENT 2, OR 39 / 1994 39 (TIED) 1961

  36. I can give some comparison w/my rural site on July 6:

    My rural site: High 97F (36C)
    Low 60F (16C)
    Avg 78.5 F (26C)

    Hagerstown, MD Airport: High 100F
    Low 76F
    Avg 88F

    Hagerstown, MD (city observer): High 100F
    Low 70F
    Avg 85F

    Frederick, MD Airport: High 105F
    Low 69F
    Avg 87F

    Baltimore, MD Airport High 105F
    Low 75F
    Avg 90F

    From my location, the other sites are close in latitude & extend east from me — Baltimore is about 100 miles (167 km) east. It’s fair to say that all the other sites are urban. Since my altitude is 900 ft, there’s a correction for that — ~2F cooler due to my elevation compared to sea-level temps. Still, w/that correction, Baltimore is 9.5 F warmer than me under about as uniform regional conditions (light NW winds, high-pressure) across the mid-Atlantic states as you can get.

    Is all of that due to UHI? Probably not, but if only 50% of it is, that’s still a very significant effect.

  37. Gneiss, IMO you have reported on a “dress for weather” descriptor and weather pattern variations, not climate, with some of your “climate” data obtained from AGW graphs down right bereft in terms of information. There is no such thing as a single statistic for global temperature. It is the most misleading of all AGW statistics and should be shunned by meat and potatoes scientists. It is no more useful than reporting the averaged zipcode. Data rich, information poor.

    Let’s not be data rich and information poor.

  38. Anthony,
    Consider this: In the last 100 years there have been 100 days of each day of the year. If temperatures varied totally randomly, there would be a 1% chance any given selected day of the year would be a record high for the last 100 years. Since there are 365 days in a year, the probability is that between 3 and 4 days of any given year will have record highs for that year. If you add to this the fact that the temperature has slightly increased in later years compared to earlier, the probability of record days in recent years is even higher. Thus a few record highs is no big deal. In fact, if less than 3 records are not made in a given recent year, this would be the odd fact.

  39. So it was 105 degrees at the airport out by the tarmac?

    My guess is they hope the public doesn’t know what UHI is.

  40. Thanks to the obscenity known as Washington, D.C. ( a/k/a the “District of Confusion” and “Cancer On The Potomac” ), I have observed the explosion of development and the destruction of some of the nation’s most beautiful agricultural land. From my vantage point in Baltimore, the growth of the federal government over the last eighty years caused massive immigration to the region and is directly responsible for the horrific degradation of the Chesapeake Bay and its surrounding environment.

    There is little doubt in my mind that the region’s population growth and transformation has greatly affected temperatures. There is good reason that current temperatures are not comparable to the historic record.

    In my father’s child

  41. I have mentioned this before: here is a coastal city and matching airport south of Baltimore in the state of North Carolina.

    The city is on the North Carolina/Virgina border and near the ocean. Take a look at the city vs the airport! Norfolk City and Norfolk International Airport

    Here are more North Carolina cities and the ref=”http://digitaldiatribes.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/amoraw200908.png”> Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    North to south thru the middle of the state
    North – Raleigh NC

    Large city in the middle of NC – Fayetteville NC

    South – Lumberton NC

    Coastal Cities:
    North – Elisabeth City

    South – Wilmington NC

    Rural
    North – Louisburg
    North – Louisburg

    South – Southport
    Amazing how the temperatures follow the Atlantic ocean oscillation as long as the weather station is not sitting at an airport isn’t it?

  42. savethesharks. The weather stations at airports are there to support aviation only and are properly sited for their intended purpose. Knowing the air density, i.e. temp/humidity, is crucial if ones plane is loaded near the edge of the envelope because the density of the air affects the amount of lift and thrust that can be produced. The malfeasance/incompetence comes from incorporating airport station data into the climate record. The challenge in temperature recording is having calibrated instruments properly sited while being accessible/convenient over the long haul for the humans or electronics that record the data throughout the day. Airport stations are convenient, but the data is not suitable for analyzing subtle trends in climate.

    cheers,
    Tim

  43. Over the past several years, BWI underwent a very large expansion; adding a new terminal for Southwest airlines.
    BWI was very rarely the hotspot in our area, (central Maryland). Usually a degree or 2 less than surrounding stations. (Including Frederick BTW). This is the first real summer we’ve had since the expansion, and suddenly BWI is running hotter than the surrounding stations. Even the Baltimore Sun newspaper blogged that they were lower in downtown Baltimore last June 24. I’ve been observing here for about 35 years. I had 95, 99, and 101 on 3 different thermometers yesterday; 20 miles from BWI.

  44. Alexander K says:
    July 7, 2010 at 2:14 am:

    I am driven to wonder, from my own observations, how many Warmists actually observe and record temp readings for themselves in a similar manner to my own very amateur efforts.

    Unsurprisingly, “tenet-based” Climate Science does seem to be much more “Armchair” rooted than real Science – maybe also because you can’t get too far away from the Warming Models without some rather unpleasant withdrawal effects?

  45. What’s funny is you can look at the 24 hour summary and see how the temp jumps after early morning, when the asphaltic effect happens because of the sun.
    Then watch is ramp down again late at night after the asphalt has released it’s heat.

    Growing up, we lived on a country asphalt road. We would go out on a cold night and lay on the road to keep warm so we could watch the stars. Around midnight the asphalt would no longer be hot enough to keep us warm.

  46. When asphalt is initially installed it is very dark black. But in time it becomes a much lighter gray color. I’m guessing that the dark black is a much better solar collector than the light gray. So temperatures could also be affected by resurfacing of the asphalt.

  47. John, loved your comment. Irony riding the tails of truth is such a bright light! If AGW theories are heading towards heat storage in oceans, all monitors should immediately be placed at the furthest coastal projection into the ocean wherever marine on-shore breeze is the norm, so we can monitor all that CO2 heat coming our way to fry our brains. What you say? Such strategically placed CO2-AGW sensors would be overwhelmed by the local natural effects of marine breeze? Then what, pray tell, are we all knicker-twisted-panties-in-a-bunch up over?

  48. Leonard Weinstein is correct but it is also correct that if the temperature was not increasing the number of record highs and record lows would be about the same, and indeed in the 1950s that was the case. However in the last decade (2000-2009) the ratio of highs to lows had increased to ~2. One can also see the cooling in the 1960s from this figure.

    Also, Beng, this heat wave seems to be pretty much pushed up against the coast and 100 mi makes a difference, esp to the west.

  49. Yes, and all those “siting problems” were there 20 years ago as well. Unless they were introduced in the last few days, it is illogical to claim that they “caused” the record. Learn basic logic.

  50. Pamela Gray writes,
    “Gneiss, IMO you have reported on a ‘dress for weather’ descriptor and weather pattern variations, not climate”

    Dress for weather? Weather-pattern variations? No, I reported the positive trends of four temperature series, giving no indication of their means. Which in the Maryland cases would only help one dress if you planned that by decades, wore the same outfit all year, and chose your outfit in response to fractional degrees. In the global cases the means would not even help that much. But do you know why?

    Nor did I comment on weather-pattern variations around those trends. Although averages, trends and variation prove widely useful in climatology, business, farming and much else.

    “with some of your ‘climate’ data obtained from AGW graphs down right bereft in terms of information.”

    You’re imagining that part. I gave no data, only slopes, and none of the slopes were “obtained from AGW graphs.” Were they “bereft in terms of information”? Slopes are simple but often informative, which is why ordinary least squares is one of the very few statistical techniques built into most spreadsheets.

    “There is no such thing as a single statistic for global temperature. It is the most misleading of all AGW statistics and should be shunned by meat and potatoes scientists.”

    But GISTEMP, RSS and the others don’t claim to provide “a single statistic for global temperature,” do they? I’ve never seen this “most misleading of all AGW statistics.” What the global indexes do provide has not been shunned by scientists, however. Instead, it has proven widely useful and consistent with observations across many different fields.

    “Let’s not be data rich and information poor.”

    I wrote a short blog post, not a research article, and that contained no data. It did contribute a few pieces of information not found elsewhere in this thread.

  51. When I read highest temperature in the record, I asked myself how long is the record. And in this situation, how long is the record of hourly temperature record. I wonder if they have the record of the hottest hour of the day for the 40s.

  52. I guess that it is unimportant that NOAA works with temperature anomalies to correct for differences in positioning and environments of its weather stations. It’s amazing to me that these scientists at NOAA are not even aware of what is so patently obvious to the average person.

  53. “”Owen says:
    July 7, 2010 at 9:08 am
    I guess that it is unimportant that NOAA works with temperature anomalies to correct for differences in positioning and environments of its weather stations. It’s amazing to me that these scientists at NOAA are not even aware of what is so patently obvious to the average person.””

    Owen, what’s amazing to me is those “scientists” can tell within a 1/100th to 1/10th of a degree exactly how much UHI is affecting their thermometers….

    ….and they know exactly how much to adjust, change, fudge, their temperatures to account for that

  54. Careful Anthony, Zeke will replicate these temperatures at Lucia’s and disprove all skeptical claims concerning surface stations.

    REPLY: What is really needed is a field study, placing thermometers in concentric rings around the perimeter to ascertain the effects. Already we have some hint of that with the weatherbug stations – Anthony

  55. Owen writes,
    “I guess that it is unimportant that NOAA works with temperature anomalies to correct for differences in positioning and environments of its weather stations. It’s amazing to me that these scientists at NOAA are not even aware of what is so patently obvious to the average person.”

    What makes you think that NOAA scientists are unaware of siting issues?

  56. I have a couple poorly placed remote outdoor min/max thermometers. One is 4 inches underneath the roof of a covered deck that is open on 3 sides. The top of the roof is standard white roofing shingles. The deck is cement. There are no heat sources or trees near it. It reads 7 degrees (F) high when the sun is blazing in the summer. Another is on the underside of a step in an open outdoor stairway about 6 feet off the ground. Cement underneath and on two sides. It is located about 10 feet from the exhaust of a small window air conditioner. It reads 5 degrees high in the summer sun. Finally I have one other that is located under the eave of a small shed. There are no heat sources within 100 feet and the shed is completely shaded by a forest canopy with natural ground cover. It gives me the correct temperature in agreement with what I see on local weather reports.

    Location matters a lot. It isn’t enough to put something inside a white box with ventilation slats. It needs to be in the natural environment for the area. Not near cement, asphault, mowed lawns, and unnatural things like that. Given a great many locations, probably a majority, are in locations with considerable land use changes they’re not valid indicators of CO2 driven temperature anomalies. I know for a fact that it’s a lot cooler at the surface underneath a forest canopy than it is in a grassy field in full sun. The transpiration of the trees combined with the shade and moister ground beneath keeps it a lot cooler below the canopy. The difference seems to be a good 5 to 10 degrees F. One lonely dry white box doesn’t duplicate the natural cooling effect of a forest canopy. They’d need to add a swamp cooler of some sort.

  57. Gneiss, I grew up on a farm and manage the family ranch holdings. I use knowledge about local weather pattern variation data and information (including what the oceans are doing and why our topography affects weather fronts) to plan ahead regarding water use, grazing rotations, and allowed units per acre. The climate zone I am in is pretty set in this interglacial period. Every farmer and rancher I know follows this same line of reasoning. We ignore completely all reported global data (and outside the county weather predictions for our area). Our climate zone designation (and the reasons for it) are semi-permanent and as long as we stay within that climate range we do all right. But knowledge of local weather pattern variations and oscillations do change what we do from day to day, month to month, and year to year. The problem arises when less skeptical farmers try to plant things not meant for our climate zone range and then end up losing the crop. If the crop is one that takes years to establish and the farmer is betting on one thing without considering where we are at in terms of a weather pattern oscillation, the farm will soon be owned by someone else. This happens when a farmer has become convinced that we will just be getting warmer and warmer (aka the positive trend lines you reported).

    Regarding being data rich and information poor: The fact that students, on average at a particular school, score below the national average is data rich and information poor. Weather trends (both the data and the statistics derived from the data) are data rich and information poor. Calling a temperature hot has more information in it than the temperature reading or trend alone does. Having an explanation for why the temperature is hot, how to prepare for it, and when it might go away is being data AND information rich.

    However, on a blog meant to encourage debate, simply listing data as if data has information in it without further work will certainly encourage debate. If all we needed was data, we would have very short journal articles.

  58. It would be interesting if someone would do a study comparing soil temperatures under asphalt or concrete runways to temps at various distances from same. My impression from my research into ground source heat pumps was that soil temps at a depth of ten feet or so were a great approximation of average air temps at the surface.

  59. In my wonderful state of CT, record high temperatures are always broken at Bradley Airport(our main airport). A suspicious site I think that should be investigated.

  60. Gneiss

    Oh they’re aware of the UHI and land use effects. They’re also aware that there are no adjustments to the raw data made for such effects. The problem is that people like Anthony Watts and his growing audience are aware of the siting issues and lack of compensation for them too.

  61. Positive or negative anomalies (data rich) increase or decrease for some reason (information poor). The trick is to get out into the field and figure out why (information rich). What amazes me is that those that provide us with these temperature trends do not do so, and they fully admit to not doing so.

  62. I haven’t looked through all these comments, but a few things need to be pointed out:

    1 – Downtown Baltimore WAS 105 yesterday, just like the airport. 103 is incorrect.
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/CLIBWI (scroll down)

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/CF6DMH

    2 – A record isn’t incompatible when its been measured in similarly bad surroundings for the last century. Remember that a lot of city offices before the move to airports were located on the roofs of buildings. BWI is probably an IMPROVEMENT compared to the past.

  63. Dave Springer writes,
    “Oh they’re aware of the UHI and land use effects. They’re also aware that there are no adjustments to the raw data made for such effects. The problem is that people like Anthony Watts and his growing audience are aware of the siting issues and lack of compensation for them too.”

    Now I’m confused. I was responding to Owen who claimed NOAA was not aware of position and siting issues. The NOAA scientists I know are well aware of these. Elsewhere on this thread several posters claimed, without evidence, that adjustments for siting biases are made conspiratorially to get a desired warming result. But some adjustments should be made, shouldn’t they?

    Also relevant to this thread — are these BWI record temperatures, right or wrong, contributing to anyone’s global temperature index? Many comments here assume that they are, but I’m not sure how. The Baltimore USHCN series I mentioned above is not from BWI, and the Chestertown MD station, which has a similar trend, looks bucolic:

    http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=29874

    As for Anthony Watt’s surfacestation hypothesis, I honestly look forward to seeing his data. Like the USHCN data he criticizes, Anthony’s data should be made public so that anyone can test for themselves the differences in trends between anomalies from stations with urban or microsite issues and others; and how the categories are defined. If the definitions and trend differences both prove to be robust, this would be an important study.

  64. Joshua Halpern [AKA: Eli Rabett] says:
    July 7, 2010 at 8:02 am

    “Leonard Weinstein is correct but it is also correct that if the temperature was not increasing the number of record highs and record lows would be about the same, and indeed in the 1950s that was the case. However in the last decade (2000-2009) the ratio of highs to lows had increased to ~2. One can also see the cooling in the 1960s from this figure.

    http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/images/temps_2.jpg

    Halpern, a drone at the second worst-rated school in the US, bases his belief on one US chart — starting after the hottest decade of the 1930’s. So let me help fill in the gaps that Halpern avoids:

    click1
    click2 [global]
    click3 [global]
    click4
    click5 [from continuously monitored stations]
    click6 [global satellite; no CO2 correlation]
    click7 [global temp, normal y-axis]

    “Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age.”
    ~ Prof Richard Lindzen

    Neither the bunny nor any other alarmist has been able to falsify the hypothesis that what we are observing is natural climate variability. The planet is still emerging from the Little Ice Age, and there is no testable, empirical evidence showing that CO2 has anything to do with the few tenths of a degree rise in temperature. The only evidence available shows that CO2 rises as a result of rising temperature, and not the cause.

  65. The Frederick, MD station ALWAYS measures higher temperatures than the surrounding areas during the day. I live in the region, and often look up the NWS data for that station. Unfortunately I have not compared the nighttime data but I’m curious to do so after learning about the over-asphalt siting.

  66. JPeden says:
    July 7, 2010 at 7:55 am
    Unsurprisingly, “tenet-based” Climate Science does seem to be much more “Armchair” rooted than real Science – maybe also because you can’t get too far away from the Warming Models without some rather unpleasant withdrawal effects?
    But, but, but go out??? In all that heat? Are you mad??? With the vast dust bowl conditions (and yet somehow deeper oceans) and all that Co2?

  67. Pamela Gray writes,
    “This happens when a farmer has become convinced that we will just be getting warmer and warmer (aka the positive trend lines you reported).”

    Really, you know a farmer who became convinced it will be getting warmer and warmer, “aka the positive trend lines” I reported?

    “Regarding being data rich and information poor: The fact that students, on average at a particular school, score below the national average is data rich and information poor. Weather trends (both the data and the statistics derived from the data) are data rich and information poor. Calling a temperature hot has more information in it than the temperature reading or trend alone does. Having an explanation for why the temperature is hot, how to prepare for it, and when it might go away is being data AND information rich.”

    The rich/poor slogan doesn’t work for me because data is one type of information. So what you’ve written above just says that for some purposes, having more information is better than having less information, which is true enough but not deep.

    “However, on a blog meant to encourage debate, simply listing data as if data has information in it without further work will certainly encourage debate. If all we needed was data, we would have very short journal articles.”

    That’s true, and I write longer articles when I’ve got more to say. But the four slopes I listed do convey information related to the main point of this thread, which I gather you missed. They show a warming trend in Baltimore (but not at BWI) that is similar to the warming trend in a more rural Maryland location. Moreover, both local trends have the same sign but are steeper than two independent estimates of global temperature trends.

    Such decadal trends show one dimension of “climate,” just as daily tempertures (the inspiration for this thread) show one dimension of “weather.”

  68. At the moment in suburban Boston, the temperature of my back yard driveway is 144 degrees according to my IR thermometer. My Davis station gives a temperature of 95 degrees in about the best position I could locate it. Urban heat island effect? Yes, we have heard of it.

  69. Gneiss

    Anthony and co-conspirators have already reported on a great enough percentage of continental US temperature sites to indict the whole system. The rules for siting are not terribly stringent to begin but it’s painfully obvious that there is no oversight or enforcement of the rules. I’d equate the site placement rules to traffic controls (signals and signs) in Taipei which are for all practical purposes not traffic laws but rather recommendations that are seldom followed.

  70. Pamela

    I think “they” know what will happen if they get out into the field and invest some due diligence into the so-called “settled science”. They prefer the data they have now and don’t want to do anything that will change it.

  71. Dave Springer writes,
    “Anthony and co-conspirators have already reported on a great enough percentage of continental US temperature sites to indict the whole system. The rules for siting are not terribly stringent to begin but it’s painfully obvious that there is no oversight or enforcement of the rules. I’d equate the site placement rules to traffic controls (signals and signs) in Taipei which are for all practical purposes not traffic laws but rather recommendations that are seldom followed.”

    This puzzles me a bit. From the summaries on surfacestations.org, I gather that they do indeed have a dataset — but where is it? And the analysis should be easy, something dozens of folks on this site, and thousands elsewhere in science, can do quickly and in many different ways … where are those analyses? Evan reports that a write-up is forthcoming, soon I hope, because the conclusions have been widely foretold.

    The stuff I’ve seen revealed so far does not test the main hypothesis that Anthony states as fact in his talks — that the warming trends of the global anomaly indexes can be explained by urban or microsite problems. That hypothesis is so testable it makes the lack of published analysis stand out … so far!

  72. solrey

    re; temperature reporting at airports are for pilots

    True enough. And if working under the rubric of “it’s better to err on the side of caution” and then taking into consideration that reporting a temperature that is higher than the actual temperature will result in aircraft being more lightly loaded and thus have a larger safety margin… it behooves the safe operation of the airport to exagerate the temperature in a warmer direction.

  73. Regarding temperatures measured in aircraft, a friend of mine used to fly a light twin to get around a few cities in Western Australia. He told me he took off from Kalgoorlie one day when the plane had been sitting on the tarmac for a few hours, and the plane was so hot that none of the LCD cockpit instruments read anything but total black until he had climbed a few thousand feet.

    Agreed, outside air temperatures measured in flight would be interesting to compare with the airport temperature.

  74. Dave Springer writes,
    “I think ‘they’ know what will happen if they get out into the field and invest some due diligence into the so-called ‘settled science’. They prefer the data they have now and don’t want to do anything that will change it.”

    Perhaps ‘they’ are someone specific in your mind, but this stereotype bears no resemblance to the scientists I know or the journals I read. Thousands of field researchers, not just modelers or data analysts, are contributing to climate-related research. The coauthors on research articles often span a broad range of knowledge, from details on the ground to syntheses across studies. Field researchers and modelers talk to each other at meetings, share data and ideas, ask questions and learn things they don’t know. They read each other’s papers. Modelers tend to be keenly aware what aspects of their models “are not well constrained by data,” and where they need better ground-truth research. Field researchers take account of such gaps in considering what and where they should measure.

    To imagine that researchers don’t go in the field is just fantasy. And science meetings tend to be all about new data, opposite to your belief that “They prefer the data they have now and don’t want to do anything that will change it.”

  75. Since those are the touchdown markers in that photo, aircraft may well be taking off at full thrust at that very point (depending on runway in use). I can tell you that you can feel the heat from those engines at that distance, when at full power, with a temperature rise of say 10oc easily detectable for half a minute or more (depending on wind direction and strength).

    I presume the thermometer would register such a huge increase in temperature to some degree.

    .

  76. >> The ILS transmitter is putting out maybe 20 watts max, so
    >>aside from the asphalt walkway and the jet exhaust, that’s CRN 2.

    ILS transmitters typically put out about 100w of RF. Not sure of how much electrical input it takes to create that output.

    But by far the biggest energy output is the jet exhaust. In the one minute it takes to pass the temp station, a B737 will burn about 90kg of fuel, and a B747 about 650kg. That is a lot of heat energy.

    .

  77. Smokey:
    The planet is still emerging from the Little Ice Age….Tell that to SH frozen inhabitants; check current temperature anomalies in the SH….Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

  78. HankHenry says:
    July 7, 2010 at 9:42 am

    It would be interesting if someone would do a study comparing soil temperatures under asphalt or concrete runways to temps at various distances from same. My impression from my research into ground source heat pumps was that soil temps at a depth of ten feet or so were a great approximation of average air temps at the surface.
    _______________________________________________________
    Cave temperature remain constant year round also. I have often wondered why cave temperatures are never mentioned since they would give a very good indication of the real average temperature trends for a region without all the noise in the signal. Maybe one or more of the caving societies has historical records that could be accessed.

  79. “”” Gail Combs says:
    July 7, 2010 at 1:15 pm
    HankHenry says:
    July 7, 2010 at 9:42 am

    It would be interesting if someone would do a study comparing soil temperatures under asphalt or concrete runways to temps at various distances from same. My impression from my research into ground source heat pumps was that soil temps at a depth of ten feet or so were a great approximation of average air temps at the surface.
    _______________________________________________________
    Cave temperature remain constant year round also. I have often wondered why cave temperatures are never mentioned since they would give a very good indication of the real average temperature trends for a region without all the noise in the signal. Maybe one or more of the caving societies has historical records that could be accessed. “””

    Well Gail; all I have to do is measure the Temperature of my well water; that’s as good as a cave; maybe better sinc3e it is less subject to winds blowing through.

    Come to think of it; I don’t even have to measure the temperature of my well water; it’s 68 deg F (20 deg C); for some reason it never changes; even when we are in the middle of a global warming meltdown like we have today.

  80. As a Baltimoron, I can tell you that the record for July 6 is actually 107 in 1936. I don’t know where they got the 1999 stat from…

  81. “”” Leonard Weinstein says:
    July 7, 2010 at 7:34 am
    Anthony,
    Consider this: In the last 100 years there have been 100 days of each day of the year. If temperatures varied totally randomly, there would be a 1% chance any given selected day of the year would be a record high for the last 100 years. Since there are 365 days in a year, the probability is that between 3 and 4 days of any given year will have record highs for that year. If you add to this the fact that the temperature has slightly increased in later years compared to earlier, the probability of record days in recent years is even higher. Thus a few record highs is no big deal. In fact, if less than 3 records are not made in a given recent year, this would be the odd fact. “””

    And when the news media only reports the new records; you get the impression that they are something special.

    Well they are still well within the total global range of -90 C to +60 C, so I wouldn’t worry about it.

    Too bad that Nyquist fellah keeps getting upset at our sampling methodology. But not to worry; nobody has shown any good relationship between the global average temperature; and the net flow of energy into or out of this planet.

  82. Being an “old guy”, who did a substantial amount of highway engineering and highway/roadway planning (and other related public works projects), I am well aware of the huge amounts of asphalt paving that has been placed in the last 6 decades. Not only has new paving taken place, but streets and highways previously paved with PCC (Portland cement concrete) have been overlaid with asphalt concrete, and parking lots previously covered with course aggregate have been paved with asphalt concrete. Most if not all local governments have street sealing (a thin layer of asphalt and fine aggregate) programs, which renew the asphalt pavement surfaces approximately every 5 years, and this certainly has a significant effect on how high the temperature of the pavement gets. These street sealing programs began to be widespread in the mid to late 1970s.

    Beginning in the late 1960s, the conversion of large aircraft from propeller powered to jet powered took place, and the number of large aircraft increased markedly. Jets produce far greater amounts of heated exhaust, and their exhaust is far hotter than that from piston engines.

    In my studied opinion, the urban heat island effect is much greater than “climate scientists” estimate, and the UHIE is a great deal more far reaching around an urban area than estimated. Other significant urban heat sources are not even considered to be significant by those same scientists.

    Attempting to use temperatures measured at or near airports or anywhere near urban areas for climate change analysis is completely absurd, however those temperatures might be “adjusted”.

  83. Geoff, I have not studied the data, but anecdotally Frederick MD has decent radiational cooling, usually tracking Manassas and a couple degrees below IAD. Then it usually tracks higher in the daytime like you said.

  84. So, what you are saying is they built an entire airport in under a year?

    You must be, because what is being discussed is a record high temperature at a specific location. You say that record high is due to the asphalt but last year and the year before weren’t this hot, so that asphalt must be new…. right?

    That IS what you are suggesting, isn’t it?

    After all, no one would seriously try to argue against scientists if they can’t grasp the simple fact that something like asphalt has to ALWAYS affect the temperature or NEVER. It can’t pick and choose which years to make hotter than normal.

    So, for the asphalt to have anything to do with this new record, the asphalt has to be new too. Otherwise, the temperature record at that site ALREADY incorporates the increased temperature caused by the asphalt, and this new record is caused by something else.

    It’s simple common sense.

    This also means that pointing at surrounding temperature readings is irrelevant because the asphalt at the airport may be increasing the absolute temperature recorded causing it to always be a few degrees warmer than surrounding locations. That has no bearing on whether this is a record high.

    In fact the only information from the other stations that would have any real bearing in this case is whether or not they too recorded record highs. If they all recorded record highs, even if they are lower than the airports, they provide solid evidence that the temperature is indeed higher than ever before. If they all demonstrate average temperatures, then that would be evidence that the record is a localised phenomena as you are suggesting.

    Too bad you didn’t tell us the information that would really help us to figure it out.

    REPLY: Southwest built a whole new terminal nearby. The airport has been expanding, a lot. Timeline here: http://www.bwiairport.com/en/about-bwi/bwi-timeline

    As the airport expands, so do the effects of asphalt, extra waste heat from jetfuel burned, etc. As you put it; “It’s simple common sense.” – A

  85. With today’s siting issues at BWI, and 1930’s temperatures, Baltimore may have asphalted to 112.

  86. Airport heat island effect together with station dropout favoring airport stations completely explains more than all of the observed warming of the last thirty years. Maybe the divergence problem of the siberian tree rings is not really a divergence. Maybe it’s just because yamal trees don’t grow at airports and city centers?

  87. @ Alexander K

    I’ve seen the same thing.

    I think to compare apples to apples, it has to be in a stevenson screen with the sun beating down on it. But, that’s OK, as long as that’s the standard and there are no siting issues, such as 190 deg-F asphault nearby.

  88. As a pilot I want to know the temp over the ASPHALT as that is what will effect my lift. I do not care what the temp is over Podunk, Iowa. Weather stations at airports are for me, no one else. Using them for ANYTHING else is false/fraud and on purpose to mislead.

  89. @ Karmakaze

    In addition to what -A said in his reply, your logic is faulty, too. Just because the pavement might have been there last year, doesn’t mean a new record would necessarily have to have been set last year.

    But, if the siting issues had been identical when the previous record was set, the previous record might have been set higher, depending on other factors such as wind direction, cloud cover, sensor issues, etc.

  90. @ Karmakaze

    Also, your logic would also imply that whenever a record low is set, it provides solid evidence that temperatures are not higher than they have ever been. A lot of record lows have been set in the past year.

    But, you should also expect relatively high temperatures since we having been climbing out of the little ice age for a long time and we had an el nino, just ending.

    A better representation of temperature trend recently mentioned in a comment would be to compare the recent el nino peak with the 1998 el nino peak. Clearly, temperatures are on a slight downward trend.

  91. Mike McMillan says:
    July 7, 2010 at 3:37 am
    I measure 196 ft to the taxiway and 247 ft to the runway. The ILS transmitter is putting out maybe 20 watts max, so aside from the asphalt walkway and the jet exhaust, that’s CRN 2.

    That toasty 192° tarmac sounds about right, as often as I’ve had to do the aircraft walkaround, but I wasn’t aware that we had to lighten our payloads because hot air had less lift than cold air. I always thought it had to do with hot air cutting back the available engine thrust.

    Mike,

    Remember back to your A&P school days: There’s less lift in warm air than in cold, by dint of the fact of air density.

    THINK: A vacuum has no air at all, and affords no lift, whereas a really dense atmosphere would behave as would water: Maximum lift.

    Take the analysis from one extreme to the other.

    And that applies to engines as well: Thin air has less available oxygen, and thus the fuel burn produces less power for natural aspiration, and even jet engines.

    Back in the day, the airlines would use water injection (in the jets) in order to gain total reaction mass to assist in takeoff on really warm days.

    As an aside, it’s also the reason that vacuum cleaners and clothes dryers don’t work as well in really hot days: Less air density.

  92. @ 899

    AKA “Density Altitude”

    I remember seeing some funny posters on density altitude when my dad would take me to the flight line when I was a kid back in the late sixties. Usually, they involved a cracked up airplane telling the confused pilot that he’d forgotten about “density altitude”.

  93. Jason says:
    July 7, 2010 at 1:37 pm
    As a Baltimoron, I can tell you that the record for July 6 is actually 107 in 1936. I don’t know where they got the 1999 stat from…

    Jason,

    What exactly is a Baltimoron? Is it someone born in Baltimore? Or, is the term restricted to just those haven’t chosen to leave?

  94. Mike G says:
    July 7, 2010 at 7:33 pm
    @ 899

    AKA “Density Altitude”

    I remember seeing some funny posters on density altitude when my dad would take me to the flight line when I was a kid back in the late sixties. Usually, they involved a cracked up airplane telling the confused pilot that he’d forgotten about “density altitude”.

    Good man!

    And for those who wonder, here’s this, about 3/4 the way down the page:

    http://www.paragonair.com/public/docs/AdvCircs/AC00-06A_AvWx/AC00-6A_ch03.html

  95. I’m curious. Both sets of pictures show the ASOS calculated with the ILS glideslope transmitter. Granted this is a low power transmiter, but the nearby radars both ATC and on the aircraft are not. I’m wondering if the ASOS has been tested for accuracy in this kind of hostile electromagnetic environment.

  96. *******
    Karmakaze says:
    July 7, 2010 at 2:30 pm

    So, what you are saying is they built an entire airport in under a year?

    You must be, because what is being discussed is a record high temperature at a specific location. You say that record high is due to the asphalt but last year and the year before weren’t this hot, so that asphalt must be new…. right?

    That IS what you are suggesting, isn’t it?

    After all, no one would seriously try to argue against scientists if they can’t grasp the simple fact that something like asphalt has to ALWAYS affect the temperature or NEVER. It can’t pick and choose which years to make hotter than normal.

    So, for the asphalt to have anything to do with this new record, the asphalt has to be new too. Otherwise, the temperature record at that site ALREADY incorporates the increased temperature caused by the asphalt, and this new record is caused by something else.

    It’s simple common sense.

    This also means that pointing at surrounding temperature readings is irrelevant because the asphalt at the airport may be increasing the absolute temperature recorded causing it to always be a few degrees warmer than surrounding locations. That has no bearing on whether this is a record high.

    In fact the only information from the other stations that would have any real bearing in this case is whether or not they too recorded record highs. If they all recorded record highs, even if they are lower than the airports, they provide solid evidence that the temperature is indeed higher than ever before. If they all demonstrate average temperatures, then that would be evidence that the record is a localised phenomena as you are suggesting.

    Too bad you didn’t tell us the information that would really help us to figure it out.
    *******

    Here’s some common sense. Air moves, especially during the day when high temps occur. If you have more and more asphalt (and urbanization in general) upwind and near enough to a site, over time temps will increase from UHI, even if that site doesn’t change. Whether immediate local changes occur or not, new high-temp records will occur more frequently.

  97. Ref – solrey says:
    July 7, 2010 at 7:50 am

    Thank You! Thank You! Thank You! Sooooooooooo True!
    _____________________

    You’ll know that the AGW Mob is serious when they start taking jackhammers to airport runways and interstates and blowing up whole city blocks of concrete, glass, and steel skyscrapers. If any CO2 is ‘at fault’, it’s the CO2 that is produced producing, installing, and employing asphalt, steel, and concrete that raises the atmospheric level of that dasterdly gas AND causing the UHI to go through the blogosphere.

    Doesn’t NOAA assign something like a armchair handicap correction factor to each of their “official” locations to account for the unique physical and regularly recurring transient effects (jet engine backblast, etc.) at each site? Seems like JFK, LAX, BWI, DFW, ATL, and a few hundred other locations around the country ought to have their own individual fudge factor. Tell me they do… please?

    We need to bring back the buffalo and live in teepees.

  98. WOW!

    Asphalt @ 192deg – almost hot enough to fry eggs!

    Anthony, you are to be thanked endlessly!, for your many excellent efforts.

    Now if we can some how get the words of our friendly astronaut out to let sheeple of the world know – the entire hypothesis is based upon fraud (and amazing stupidity?)-

    Not to mention tyrannical control over all people.

  99. On 22 June 2010, at an elevation of 6767′, 10 miles SE of Santa Fe, NM airport, my exposed data logger USB temperature sensor (15″ above dirt surface) reached 140F while another sensor, shaded to the north and 8 feet above the surface read 86F. Micro climates and exposure issues do make a difference. Having a homogeneous climate record is near impossible. Certainly, data reveals non-stationarity at best.

  100. [snip remove your accusation of “making stuff up” and the comment will be allowed ~mod]

  101. @ Pascvaks says:
    July 8, 2010 at 5:55 am

    …Doesn’t NOAA assign something like a armchair handicap correction factor to each of their “official” locations to account for the unique physical and regularly recurring transient effects (jet engine backblast, etc.) at each site? Seems like JFK, LAX, BWI, DFW, ATL, and a few hundred other locations around the country ought to have their own individual fudge factor. Tell me they do… please?
    —————–

    If they did decide that a fudge factor was needed to counter the ocasional jet blast, etc., they would probably decide it needed to bias the temperature further upwards.

  102. Anthony I pretty much agree with most of what you have to say and I have learned some interesting info from you and now you can learn something from me. I disagree with your opinion on the accuracy of the WeatherBug stations. These are rooftop stations and one of the worst places for a temperature sensor is on a roof. I can forward articles to you from competent people who have written articles on rooftop stations. Take a look at how ridiculously high the temps were on the rooftop at the Custom House in Baltimore when they were recording temps there. TV Meteorologist Bob Ryan when he read these rooftop articles would then say when he would show the WeatherBug temps, ” Keep in mind that these are rooftop temps”. Not to worry because WeatherBug has found the perfect solution to this problem by tweaking ( lowering ) the temps by 2-3 degrees which they can do for any WeatherBug station from their Headquarters in Germantown, Md. It is pathetic to see TV Meteorologists? show data from the airports where NOBODY lives especially given the poor siting conditions at airports such as BWI, Reagan National, Frederick Airport, as well as Leesburg Airport. I have given my website to Fox Channel 5 to use my accurate weather data and they have never used it. They would prefer to use the very flawed data from the above mentioned airports. There are more people living here in Clarksburg, Md than there are at any airport. The airport data should only be used for aviation purposes and NOT for climate purposes. Anybody out there who would like to start a company similar to WeatherBug please contact me at rbholden@earthlink.net.

    REPLY: Point taken, I haven’t looked into these stations. If they are on rooftops though and read cooler than BWI, then the BWI record is even more skewed. -A

  103. A few things I didn’t see mentioned.. I grew up in Baltimore and I remember a lot of ASPHALT STREETS !! I would bet that the Temperatures in parts of DOWNTOWN Baltimore were even HOTTER!! And as for National Arpt. in DC the Official temperatures have been measured there, near the Runway Complex, since 1942….
    They have always been paved so at least the Records for the past 68 years have been recorded in the same basic location. I would think that is true at BWI (Friendship) too.
    Bottom line is there is NO PERFECT LOCATION and furthermore the Equipment itself normally has a plus or minus 1 to 2 degrees level of accurracy. Lord knows how accurrate the Records of the 1800’s are!!! Here’s what we KNOW!! It was VERY HOT this week and it SNOWED a lot this past Winter.. Live with it and move on!!

  104. Amazing

    I responded to several people with a long post and apparently you disliked one sentence so you censored the whole message?

    But wait… you included the sentence in question in your “explanation” so the one sentence that got my long post censored is the ONLY sentence that actually got posted!

    Then in that explanation you said if that one sentence (the only one I wrote that you actually posted) was removed, you would post the rest of my message that apparently you had no problem with.

    Funny that.

    REPLY: Yes it is amazing that you denigrate me with claims like “making things up” and then whine about it when I call you on it. I don’t have a lot of tolerance for anonymous trolls that call my character into question from behind the comfort of anonymity. Feel free to repost your other comments, it’s not my fault you chose to do it that way, but unless you make the change I suggested related to me, I’ll not accept it. -A

  105. I also find it amazing that a person who makes it their obsession to call accomplished scientists frauds and liars would be so upset by me saying he is making stuff up.

    Seems you can dish it but can’t take it!

    Talk about a coward. Why am I not surprised, though?

    REPLY: Sir/madam, show me where I personally have made the claims you say against scientists, using those words, in any story I’ve posted at WUWT. Yes the words appear from time to time in context or in comments, but show me where I’ve personally named a scientist a “fraud or a liar”.

    “Seems you can dish it but can’t take it!” Huh, you don’t read/remember much do you? Even when goaded by people that have no scruples such as seen here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/16/oz-report-footy-at-least-has-rules/ I don’t stoop to that level. With anonymous cowards (I’ll use that word since you first invoked it) like yourself, it sure is easy to hurl insults though, isn’t it? I notice it is easy for you here:

    Karmakaze
    2010/01/23 at 11:47 am

    [snip]

    [If you want to call our host a “liar” there are some other sites which allow, and even encourage that. This isn’t one of them. ~dbs, mod]

    You also seem to have no tolerance for delay.

    Karmakaze
    2009/09/07 at 9:22 am

    Well isnt that intersting…

    I see you deleted my post showing how you were using phony figures…

    Funny that,.

    REPLY: 200% wrong you are.

    1) You’ve jumped to conclusion without facts in evidence. Your post appears at 4:02AM. (PST, where I live)

    2) You made no allowance for moderation delay. It is a holiday here in the USA, “Labor Day”, so there’s no expectation that posts will be approved immediately.

    – A

    As you’ve proven yourself time and again to be rude and disruptive, the decision stands, read the blog policy page, be as upset about it as you wish. – A

Comments are closed.