Hot off the press from Dr. Roy Spencer. After being essentially zero last month, we have a jump to .410°C in July. This was not unexpected, as a El Nino has been developing.
July 2009 Global Temperature Update: +0.41 deg. C
August 5th, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.003 0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 0.410 0.211 0.609 0.427
July 2009 experienced a large jump in global average tropospheric temperatures, from +0.00 deg. C in June to +0.41 deg. C in July, with the tropics and southern hemisphere showing the greatest warming.
NOTE: For those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here, we will be switching from NOAA-15 to Aqua AMSU in the next few weeks, which will provide more accurate tracking on a daily basis. We will be including both our lower troposphere (LT) and mid-tropospheric (MT) pre-processing of the data.
Lucia at the Blackboard has an analaysis of RSS, which came in higher this month also, at 0.392°C.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/rss-for-july-0392-c-graphs-to-follow/
What I find unusual is that usually the tropospheric temps as measured by UAH don’t respond so quickly to a developing El Nino. For example, in july 1997 the “super” El Nino had been ongoing for about 3 months, ONI was 1.7, but UAH only measured a 0.085 anomaly. Plus, its well known that the typical lagged response of temp to ENSO is about 6-7 months, and 6 months ago La Nina conditions were present. Thus, I don’t agree that the high July anomaly is “expected” just because El Nino is developing.
As you say…to be expected, but i am sure the warmist will be all over it!
Must have been warm somewhere else, then, because NZ has been well below average for the third month in a row.
what is the purpose of a trailing average instead of a ‘regular’ average?
@Adam, the .085 july anamoly may not seem like much by itself, but that summmer (eye-balling) shows a total change of 1.0 in a few months, definitely a large increase.
In the meantime, many of us here in the Midwest experienced a record cold July. El Nino has yet to make its appearance here…
Adam (12:41:08) :
Thus, I don’t agree that the high July anomaly is “expected” just because El Nino is developing.
It is a bit early. The other point is that we have a deep solar minimum and a negative PDO. Shoudn’t the El Nino temperature spike be more like the late 80s. This is begining to look like the post 1998-2001 period.
How much can we rely on these global temperature measurements? Do we have some systems measuring similar areas — competing data so to speak — so that we can check one against another? Is the data massaged “secretly” in any way? Finally, which systems of measurement have proven themselves to be the most accurate and trustworthy?
P”urakanui (12:45:43) :
Must have been warm somewhere else, then, because NZ has been well below average for the third month in a row.”
Not only in New Zealand, but also in South Africa where weather has been cold (except for today, 32 degrees C in my hometown) and snow has fallen. Barely any rain though so the El Nino is being felt here unlike the wet winter of La Nina – 2008.
Hmm.. The warming may be over the oceans I suppose due to the fact that South America has also had some real winter weather this year!
ak (12:56:32) :
what is the purpose of a trailing average instead of a ‘regular’ average?
It is not trailing. Look at the left-hand side of the plot. The ‘running’ average correctly does not include the last 6 and the first 6 months.
actually, ak was right, Leif. It was his comment that caused me to change the trailing average to a centered average.
Hmmmph. A lot of anecdotal evidence of surface cooling all through July (I know New England was cool, and the last week has been nothing to complain about Thermagedon-wise) and yet the lower troposphere has a big positive anomaly. Sigh. Maybe I oughtta do a Rip van WInkle and see how things have turned out in 20 years….
Toasty!
I don’t see why people give to much credit to this data. There isn’t a reliable measurement of Earth temperature for start.
That’s kinda hot!
– is this the El Nino’s effect?
lucklucky (14:03:33) :
I agree. As it is well knows, from Anthony’s project, the NOAA system is totally unreliable… why should we think that all is good with all the other systems? I am sure they all have their problems, not only instrumentation wise but methodology and data treatment too. And what makes matters worst is they won’t release the raw data to anyone.
BTW, where are all the people who were carping on UAH for being lower than RSS. Shouldn’t they now be congratulating UAH for being higher than its counterpart? Just asking.
That’s interesting. NCDC shows continental US temperature still well below last July. They show the CONUS average to be 73.46 degrees. 27th warmest and well below (nearly a full degree below) the 1901-2000 average of 74.29.
Mr. Alex (13:38:14) : That is true also for South America, we feel no Nino here. It´s too cold for el nino. How to understand all the red color on the pacific ocean, as depicted by noaa? True or wishful thinking?
I thought I saw where Canada had a very cold July. A large spike up just seems odd.
Roy Spencer (13:51:36) :
Dr. Spencer, thank you. I read this entry before there were any comments and then moved on. The term “trailing average” stuck in my mind but then it wasn’t there when Dr. Svalgaard (hah! got it right this time! Two As in the second syllable, not the first) caused me to go back and look. Just like Arthur “Tootles” Malet in Spielberg’s Hook, “I haven’t lost my marbles after all”!
Good thing, too, ’cause I’m going to try and show my deviance students how AGW is deviantization in action and my Sociology of Religion students how AGW is like a cult…. a’ course, there are a few heretics here who are pretty cult-like too…. and “Climate Confusion” is on my “read this month” shelf.
The process of global energy loss or gain is slow with many hiccups caused by chaotic variabiliy in oceans and air.
The recent more positive (or rather less negative) oceanic signal is bound to result in a global air temperature rise as the air circulation systems move a little poleward in response to increased oceanic release of energy.
The real question is whether the solar shortwave input to the oceans is sufficient to offset the energy currently being released to the air.
If not then the El Nino will be weak and the next La Nina will create a step downwards in global air temperatures with a continuing loss of oceanic heat content.
At the moment the oceanic signal is slightly positive but the northern hemisphere winter loses more energy to space than a southern hemisphere winter due to the larger land mass.
In the coming northern hemisphere winter the loss of energy from the northern land masses to space may well exceed the warming efect on the air of the recent larger energy releases from the oceans.
It is possible to get a colder northern hemisphere winter despite a weak to moderate El Nino. We really need a strong El Nino to offset the global cooling effect of a northern hemisphere winter and I doubt that we will get that during a negative PDO phase.
We shall see.
Should be interesting to see if this trend continues or drops off again. Thanks Roy for the work you do. Also, thanks to Leif for his efforts here as well.
Steve from Ky.
I don’t know about trying to read the goat’s entrails month by month. I think we ought to wait a little and see what happens. It still resembles something of a random walk to me. It has definitely gotten warmer around here. Summer showed up a couple weeks ago and it has been delightful.
Maybe el ninos are like a big heat burp, meaning that it would accelerate the downward trend once over? Just a hypothesis, not a theory I am advocating.
I’d blame the Australians then.