Guest post by Steven Goddard
Hell Hath No Fury….
Catlin team member Ann Daniels had another very difficult day.
Today has been a difficult day of highs and lows, particularly for Ann, whose morning got off to a particularly bad start. In order to power the different technical components of the kit, the team use large batteries, which need to be heated to a certain temperature in order to extract the maximum amount of power. The process of heating batteries involves Ann, sitting by her stoves for several hours, using a specially insulated piece of equipment to capture the steam from boiling water, in order to get the batteries to the correct temperature.
Ann reached her lowest point of the expedition so far, when after tending the boiling pans of water for several hours, she realised she had pre-heated the wrong battery and had accidently picked up the dead battery from the previous day. It was a painful and frustrating realisation at the end of a cold morning.
On the plus side, at the end of the day, Ann felt warm enough to take off her sledging jacket when getting into her sleeping bag for the night. This is the first time in the 41 days of the expedition so far that she has felt warm enough for this luxury. She adds that she was still wearing 3 pairs of trousers, 2 thermal top layers, 2 hats and 4 pairs of gloves, but still, quite a landmark in the expedition so far!
Consider the following scenario. All goes well and the team arrives home safely some time in the next six weeks. Now, suppose that the Arctic continues to show recovery this summer, and the realization sinks in that the very premise of the expedition may have been flawed.
Such a surface Survey has never before been attempted, and the need for the information has never been greater. Current estimates for the disappearance of the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover vary from 100 years away down to just 4 years from now. Whatever happens, the consequences of its meltdown will be of global significance in terms of sea level rise(due to thermal expansion of the oceans), the geo-politics of energy resources, rainfall patterns and the availability of water supplies and, of course, the impact on biodiversity, including polar bear.
How would she feel? One can only speculate. But as the Catlin team suffers on the ground, the satellites are watching the ice recover.
Since 2007, the global sea ice area anomaly has increased by more than 3,000,000 km2 and is now more than 600,000 km2 above the 1979-2000 mean. You could fit England, Spain, France and Mexico inside the recovered ice area.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png
Arctic sea ice extent is rapidly approaching an eight year high for the date:
.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Arctic ice extent is converging on the 1979-2000 mean:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
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this is fun stuff…i can’t wait to see what the summer brings!
Oh come on, the conclusion has already been written. This is the first part of Climate (won’t use the word science) Alchemy.
These idiots are going to get the data and select the results which shows their flawed hypothesis is correct.
“…suppose that the Arctic continues to show recovery this summer, and the realization sinks in that the very premise of the expedition may have been flawed…”
Simply deny the obvious.
I can image a response something along the lines of: “Due to insignificant variations found in all complex systems there may possibly have been some slight increase in the ice cover recently, however at a deeper analytical level it is obvious that the long range trend continues in an ominous direction.”
“How would she feel? One can only speculate.” Okay. 😉
Like a self righteous martyr?
Anthony,
That IPod graph has it higher now at +.933
OOPS they just changed it to -.341
I guess they didn’t like the looks of the Global Sea Ice Picture so they changed it to the Arctic Sea Ice only… Ya just gotta love those guys at CT.
Mike
Is it just me, or does the anomaly graph have an absolutely huge amount of variability at the end of it? That leaves me with the question, which takes more energy: melting or freezing?
The realization the expedition is for naught is the scenario I hope for, but just to have them home and alive (though still brain-addled) would suffice. The worst scenario would be to have them don their immersion suits and never come back for naught.
Sadly, it won’t be for naught. If nothing else, the proponents of this belief system are skilled propagandists. They will point to the ‘success’ of this effort and show how thin the ice is, even if the extent increases.
Expect the effort to be cut short because of the amount of ice that opens up; proof of how fast the ice is melting. I bet it was planned this way.
No science, just a great propaganda coup.
They also haven’t updated the NH seasonal graph for IPod, can’t be showing people those rises I guess…
Collecting measurements in a year when the ice has recovered tends to set the stage for future expeditions which will be contrasted with the colder conditions of 2009 and the thicker ice.
I presume these guys are getting paid, and of course they are getting publicity, so I think so long as they don’t suffer any serious injury or health effect, they won’t feel too bad about their adventure, even if the mission gets aborted.
Fred (20:39:18) :
“… however at a deeper analytical level it is obvious that the long range trend continues in an ominous direction.”
and at a deeper analytical level than yours, it is also obvious, that a time range below a full period of the relevant ocean current cycles is not a long range trend.
Anthony,
I don’t think that was the Global Sea Ice graph before, I think they just made a mistake. But the seasonal graph hasn’t been updated in a while, and who knows what other problems they have. I guess since it is just an amateur part time effort, we should forgive all… even all those problems they STILL haven’t corrected…
Mike
Mike,
I’m not sure what you are seeing, but the global ice area graph shows a modification time of:
Saturday, April 11, 2009 9:54:30 AM
Steven,
I was looking at the IPod product, the link is at the bottom right side of the home page.
Mike
This is the graph I saw at first, I probably should have played with the IPod program a little more before I commented.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/iphone.anom.antarctic.html
I really and truly wish that global warming had caught up w/ our crew and that it was as warm as Miami in February!
UMMMMM Not to be a kill joy. BUT!
This is a classic sign of hypothermia. The victim ‘feels’ warm. When, in fact, they are in dire, extreme, danger of death.
Please, Someone-save them. Their ignorance may be killing them! Like children. Poor, misguided, uneducated, children. Please, someone save them.
“This is the first part of Climate (won’t use the word science) Alchemy.”
I prefer Climate Gamer, since most of their predictions comes from nothing more than a glorified SimEarth.
If they come up empty-handed, they’ll just continue per the normal procedure. When it was clear that Arctic ice extent was rebounding, they started wringing their hands and saying that it was “new ice” that doesn’t count. The really, really important ice, they say, is the old, multi-year ice. When the average ice thickness is found to be another meter thicker than last year, we’ll hear something like this:
“The expedition has made an ominous discovery. They have found that the new Arctic ice, though several millimeters thicker than last year, is not high albedo ice, but darker, low albedo ice. This means that the Arctic ice cap is doomed to disappear this summer forever and possibly longer. ‘The situation is worse than we ever imagined,’ Pencil Shadow, experienced Arctic explorer, lamented. ‘Santa and his elves are already missing and believed drowned.'”
Is the following done in their tent?
The process of heating batteries involves Ann, sitting by her stoves for several hours, using a specially insulated piece of equipment to capture the steam from boiling water, . . .
I think I now understand how the sleeping bags and outer-wear got so wet.
Or did I miss the part about her going outside the tent to generate steam?
In either case, there ought to be a better way.
I figure it this way. Man is an explorer species. Even without climate crisis he is driven to climb the highest peak, ford the deepest valley and trek his silly behind thru conditions that would kill him. Their data has been pretty useless from the begining as they are zig zagging their way across a moving ice pack. So what are they really measuring? How fast the ice moved that day more than anything else:P
What they are doing is however raising awareness. Look at their pictures, does it look like there is a lack of ice up there? Hahah I think for the most part they are proving that the ice is fine as most people will look and see rather than believe the written word. It is however a very bad time for science. Most scientists are coming off lookin like radical kooks.. sad.
I’m still curious about the term “ice free.”
Current estimates for the disappearance of the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover vary from 100 years away down to just 4 years from now.
Consider this paragraph from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Larsen
In 1940 the St Roch was sent on a mission to travel from the Western Arctic to the Eastern Arctic. The St. Roch completed the West to East voyage in 1942, taking 28 months to do so. For most of these 28 months the St Roch was frozen in. The St. Roch was the second vessel to traverse the Northwest Passage, and the first to do so from west to east. Upon her arrival in Halifax the St. Roch was given an extensive refit, giving her a larger engine, and a deckhouse, increasing her accommodation. The refit was completed in time for her to make the return voyage to Vancouver during the ice-free period, completing her voyage in less than eighty-six days.
Does the term mean “no ice anywhere” or does it mean “a whole lot of unconnected patches” or does it mean “some ice that one can easily maneuver around in a ship.”
The folks on the St. Roch – would they not have keep detailed records of the conditions and described what is called “ice-free” in the above? The ship on its previous voyage was frozen in and took 28 months to make a one way passage. The return took only 86 days. Were they prepared for a trip like the first, or did they know they would encounter an “ice free” period?
Did “ice free” mean to the crew of the St. Roch what it means in 2009 to the Gorical and friends?
The italics didn’t work as expected. Sorry.
Ohioholic (20:53:07) :
That leaves me with the question, which takes more energy: melting or freezing?
I’m no scientist, but from what little I know I think the answer to your question would be melting. Cold is just a lack of heat, which is a low form of energy. When something like water freezes that means the molecules in it are less excited and thus have a lower energy content. It is when water is heated, like say to a boil, that the molecules become excited enough to release energy in the form of heat which we see as steam. Of course, heating water requires some external source whereas freezing water just requires the lack of a heat source and some way to release/radiate heat away from the molecules. Think of it this way: which is easier – to eat or to starve. To eat is preferable by far, of course, but if there is a lack of food there is not much one needs to actually “do” to starve other than not eat.
I agree with barbee…the “warm” comment stuck right out to me immediately. Get them out of there before its too late.
OT…Its official…600 spotless days!!! And going on 36 since the last official NOAA sunspeck. Though, I don’t want to jinx it by having Anthony the bringer of spots and the destroyer of spots commenting on it…lol
well, let me correct myself slightly. the effect of boiling water is to transform it from a liquid to a gas over time. the energy release is heat. the physical effect is steam as water goes from a liquid state to a gaseous state. that is nit picking perhaps, but I thought it warranted a slight correction.
Reading the description of Ann’s domestic chores above I am somewhat reminded of “The Famous Five” by Enid Blyton: