Freeman Dyson: speaking out on "global warming"

Freeman Dyson
Freeman Dyson

This is a well written essay by the New York times on Freeman Dyson. Dyson is one of the world’s most eminent physicists. As many WUWT readers know he is a skeptic of AGW aka “global warming”, even going so far as to signing the Oregon Petition, seen below.

This part really spoke to me:

What may trouble Dyson most about climate change are the experts. Experts are, he thinks, too often crippled by the conventional wisdom they create, leading to the belief that “they know it all.” The men he most admires tend to be what he calls “amateurs,” inventive spirits of uncredentialed brilliance like Bernhard Schmidt, an eccentric one-armed alcoholic telescope-lens designer; Milton Humason, a janitor at Mount Wilson Observatory in California whose native scientific aptitude was such that he was promoted to staff astronomer; and especially Darwin, who, Dyson says, “was really an amateur and beat the professionals at their own game.”

You can read an essay about his views on climate change, posted here on WUWT  on 11/05/2007.

Excerpt: from the NYT article:

IT WAS FOUR YEARS AGO that Dyson began publicly stating his doubts about climate change. Speaking at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University, Dyson announced that “all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated.” Since then he has only heated up his misgivings, declaring in a 2007 interview with Salon.com that “the fact that the climate is getting warmer doesn’t scare me at all” and writing in an essay for The New York Review of Books, the left-leaning publication that is to gravitas what the Beagle was to Darwin, that climate change has become an “obsession” — the primary article of faith for “a worldwide secular religion” known as environmentalism. Among those he considers true believers, Dyson has been particularly dismissive of Al Gore, whom Dyson calls climate change’s “chief propagandist,” and James Hansen, the head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and an adviser to Gore’s film, “An Inconvenient Truth.” Dyson accuses them of relying too heavily on computer-generated climate models that foresee a Grand Guignol of imminent world devastation as icecaps melt, oceans rise and storms and plagues sweep the earth, and he blames the pair’s “lousy science” for “distracting public attention” from “more serious and more immediate dangers to the planet.”

“The climate-studies people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models,” Dyson was saying. “They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models.”

If only we could get James Hansen to spend an afternoon with Freeman Dyson. (h/t to Alexandre Aguiar )

New York Times Magazine Preview

The Civil Heretic

By NICHOLAS DAWIDOFF

FOR MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY the eminent physicist Freeman Dyson has quietly resided in Prince­ton, N.J., on the wooded former farmland that is home to his employer, the Institute for Advanced Study, this country’s most rarefied community of scholars. Lately, however, since coming “out of the closet as far as global warming is concerned,” as Dyson sometimes puts it, there has been noise all around him. Chat rooms, Web threads, editors’ letter boxes and Dyson’s own e-mail queue resonate with a thermal current of invective in which Dyson has discovered himself variously described as “a pompous twit,” “a blowhard,” “a cesspool of misinformation,” “an old coot riding into the sunset” and, perhaps inevitably, “a mad scientist.” Dyson had proposed that whatever inflammations the climate was experiencing might be a good thing because carbon dioxide helps plants of all kinds grow. Then he added the caveat that if CO2 levels soared too high, they could be soothed by the mass cultivation of specially bred “carbon-eating trees,” whereupon the University of Chicago law professor Eric Posner looked through the thick grove of honorary degrees Dyson has been awarded — there are 21 from universities like Georgetown, Princeton and Oxford — and suggested that “perhaps trees can also be designed so that they can give directions to lost hikers.” Dyson’s son, George, a technology historian, says his father’s views have cooled friendships, while many others have concluded that time has cost Dyson something else. There is the suspicion that, at age 85, a great scientist of the 20th century is no longer just far out, he is far gone — out of his beautiful mind.

But in the considered opinion of the neurologist Oliver Sacks, Dyson’s friend and fellow English expatriate, this is far from the case. “His mind is still so open and flexible,” Sacks says. Which makes Dyson something far more formidable than just the latest peevish right-wing climate-change denier. Dyson is a scientist whose intelligence is revered by other scientists — William Press, former deputy director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and now a professor of computer science at the University of Texas, calls him “infinitely smart.” Dyson — a mathematics prodigy who came to this country at 23 and right away contributed seminal work to physics by unifying quantum and electrodynamic theory — not only did path-breaking science of his own; he also witnessed the development of modern physics, thinking alongside most of the luminous figures of the age, including Einstein, Richard Feynman, Niels Bohr, Enrico Fermi, Hans Bethe, Edward Teller, J. Robert Oppenheimer and Edward Witten, the “high priest of string theory” whose office at the institute is just across the hall from Dyson’s. Yet instead of hewing to that fundamental field, Dyson chose to pursue broader and more unusual pursuits than most physicists — and has lived a more original life.

Full story here

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Just Want Truth...
March 25, 2009 9:24 pm

I hope Michio Kaku becomes a skeptic too. He is a AGW believer now. But I refuse to believe he is going to stay one.

Ray
March 25, 2009 9:46 pm

That is the Dyson that invented the Famous “Dyson Sphere”… which idea was seen on Star Trek Next Generation… when Scotty put himself in a transporter loop.

Ray
March 25, 2009 9:49 pm

Talking of sphere… it’s 10:47 pm Pacific Time and there is a small speck on the sun. But according to the magnetogram the latitude seems right for a SC24 but the polarity is still not well defined: it’s almost horizontal.

DJ
March 25, 2009 9:58 pm

The fact that he signed the discredited Oregon petition speaks volumes – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_petition.
REPLY: DJ It’s only “discredited” by people like yourself. Your brethren warmers set out to crash the list with fake names, just so they could write such things and then have the Wiki entry suitably crafted by William Connelly and Kim Petersen.
At least Mr. Dyson has the COURAGE to put his name to his belief, unlike you “DJ”.
– Anthony Watts

Mark N
March 25, 2009 10:01 pm

This site just gets better and better. Many Thanks

deadwood
March 25, 2009 10:09 pm

Thanks for the story and especially for the link to the full article. I particularly loved the contrast that was provided between Freeman Dyson and James Hansen.

policyguy
March 25, 2009 10:18 pm

A living icon at the Institute for Advanced Studies and still some presume to excoriate his thinking because it does not conform to some poorly formed substitute for scientific theory, research and considered conclusion. These GC models are the ruin of an entire generation of otherwise good people who have let themselves become would be scientific wannabes. But for a moment of FD’s time…

P Folkens
March 25, 2009 10:25 pm

An “eminent physicist” holding merely a B.A., yet sees more clearly through the mist than the “consensus.” It would be interesting to contrast his “inventive spirits of uncredentialed brilliance” to some of the dolts out there with Ph.D.s.
Mendel (a monk); school drop outs Orville and Wilbur Wright; home-schooled Thomas Edison; dropouts/computer wonks Paul Allen, Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, and Steve Jobs all come to mind for their brilliance. Jimmy Hansen wishes he could be so special.
Dyson is surely a hero of empirical science and a spirit of the elightenment.

Keith Minto
March 25, 2009 10:26 pm

It seems to be the last refuge of a scoundrel to discredit someone because of their age. I am glad that Freeman Dyson has a friend in Dr Oliver Sachs to help out.
Another great original thinker just turned 90 is James Lovelock ,and still publishing.

Evan Jones
Editor
March 25, 2009 10:27 pm

Even as a liberal, I agree with none of the man’s political positions (nukes, “peace”, Obama, whatever). But when it comes to science, I deeply admire his interdisciplinary approach.
Take the one about how CO2 output was flat (or even declined) during WWII.
Think all of the industrialized countries going from depression-level to full war production. Think 100 cities blasted or incinerated (from air raids alone). Incredibly accelerated use of aircraft (leaving comtrails). Everything with an engine running 24-7. Massive amounts of ammo expended, fires set, everything that can emit smoke doing so. Massive increase of fossil fuel use. “Spare Gas Fur Rustung!”
So, no spike in CO2? And if not, no loud questions as to why not? Even on this blog?
/sound of crickets chirping/
Apparently none of those AGW scientists ever took a history course.

REPLY:
“…no loud questions as to why not? Even on this blog?”
Evan, You may recall I’ve offered you a guest post on this subject. – Anthony

Luke
March 25, 2009 10:32 pm

Fantastic article!
When Dyson joins the public conversation about climate change by expressing concern about the “enormous gaps in our knowledge, the sparseness of our observations and the superficiality of our theories,”

Evan Jones
Editor
March 25, 2009 10:39 pm

It seems to be the last refuge of a scoundrel to discredit someone because of their age.
Why, whatever do you mean? We all know about the wild success of US schools in recent years. And how well educated the young are. (They all get A+ in Everyday Math, Commercial Arithmetic, Freeform Reading, and Self-Esteem Workshop, don’t they?)

P Folkens
March 25, 2009 10:40 pm

evanmjones (22:27:33) : “Apparently none of those AGW scientists ever took a history course.”
Many of the loudest AGW voices took few science classes as well. I have heard that Mr. Gore had one college level science course (in which he got a “c”) and Pachauri, an economist, has been titled “chief scientist” at the IPCC, but was trained to manage elements of a railroad.
But then, it’s not about science or history is it?

Claude Harvey
March 25, 2009 10:42 pm

What a breath of fresh air! Freeman Dyson reminds me of the late Hugh Matthews, with whom I worked at the Sperry Research Center (last of the old corporate think tanks) many years ago. His unbridled curiosity, his ability to see past “what everybody knows” and his unflinching regard for “truth for its own sake” without regard to personal fame and reputation is the kind of intellectual purity to which many have aspired at the beginning of their careers, but few have achieved over the long haul. Hugh would be proud of him.
Of course, I am assisted in my gushing appraisal by the fact that Freeman Dyson agrees with my (a rank amateur’s) assessment of “Manmade Global Warming”.

Evan Jones
Editor
March 25, 2009 10:43 pm

Evan, You may recall I’ve offered you a guest post on this subject. – Anthony
No, I didn’t. And I’ll be happy to! I’ll be in touch. I’ll even dig up some nice, smoky WWII pictures.
( BTW, I wasn’t referring to you, I was referring to the lack of response whenever I mentioned it in comments. #B^1 )

deepslope
March 25, 2009 10:50 pm

a wonderful article on my favorite heretic!
highly recommended for passing around to ones “intellectual” AGW friends… the perfect “Earth Hour” gift!

March 25, 2009 10:50 pm

hats off to Freeman Dyson – we need more people like him to stand up and speak the truth

Andrew Simpson
March 25, 2009 10:50 pm

Thanks for the article – it was an engrossing read.
What an incredible human. It’s a shame there aren’t more like him.
I loved his reply to his wife when she said she would like a Toyota Prius – he described it as a rich mans toy!
He also took Hansen’s slap down very well.
Good on you Mr Dyson. You have my respect.

John F. Hultquist
March 25, 2009 11:03 pm

I just finished reading the “full story.”
Have you ever been questioned about what famous person you would like to spend the day with? I’ll move Freeman Dyson to the top of my list. I even would like Imme, but she would have to learn about Al Gore lying about the polar bears (and all the rest).

Yet Another Pundit
March 25, 2009 11:16 pm

The full article is very good.
By the way, I think the common view of the general public is that a scientist is someone with a Ph.D. , and that a scientist is someone who has lots of scientific knowledge, the stuff that is taught in classes. What is not common knowledge is that that isn’t the most important part. To be a great scientist is a matter of doing (thinking), not just knowing. They do not and cannot teach that in courses. But it rubs off; you can get it from working with great scientists. Follow the path of physics Nobel prizes through the chain of scientists mentoring other scientists.

waclimate
March 25, 2009 11:20 pm

The West Australian newspaper published the following story this morning:
City heat deaths predicted to soar
Heat-related deaths in Australian cities are set to soar as a result of climate change and rising urban pollution, a CSIRO scientist has warned.
Heatwaves could double the number of elderly Sydneysiders dying from heat stress and associated problems over the coming decades, Martin Cope told a conference at Burswood yesterday. The number of days above 30C was set to rise 20 per cent by 2050.
In the same period, the number of people over 65 will rise 25 per cent as the population ages.

Let’s look at the West Australian capital city of Perth:
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the mean temperatures so far in March for Perth, based on combined recordings from Perth Airport and the suburb of Mt Lawley, are min 14.9 and max 29.1 (so far, with the forecasts for the next five days being 16/28, 14/26, 14/29, 13/25 and 12/26 – i.e. both averages are likely to be lower at month’s end).
The combined average March mean from those same locations dating back to 1944 (airport) and 1994 (Mt Lawley) are 16.15 and 29.55.
The earliest March records for Perth are from the Perth Gardens location from 1876 to 1930 (16.1 and 28.4) and Perth Regional Office from 1897 to 1992 (16.8 and 28).
Looking at potential elderly-killing extremes in Perth over the past two months, the lowest and highest min/max were:
Feb 2009 – 10 and 40.1
Mar 2009 – 7.7 and 39.8
For a comparison, it’s worth looking at the raw data from the Perth Gardens location within “The Climate of Western Australia 1876-1899” (http://www.archive.org/download/climateofwestern00cookrich/climateofwestern00cookrich.pdf – 28mb PDF).
Lowest min and highest max 1876-1899
1876 – Feb 13.9 and 44.4 / Mar 10.5 and 37.2
1877 – Feb 12.7 and 41.7 / Mar 13.9 and 39.4
1878 – Feb 14 and 39.8 / Mar 10.1 and 38.3
1879 – Feb 11.7 and 41.1 / Mar 11.7 and 41.2
1880 – Feb 11.9 and 43 / Mar 10 and 34.3
1881 – Feb 11.6 and 41.8 / Mar 10.4 and 40.2
1882 – Feb 12.9 and 45.4 / Mar 9.8 and 40.4
1883 – Feb 11.1 and 41.1 / Mar 9.4 and 33.9
1884 – Feb 12.2 and 42.8 / Mar 9.4 and 40.6
1885 – Feb 10 and 44.4 / Mar 8.3 and 38.3
1886 – Feb 12.2 and 42.8 / Mar 11.7 and 38.3
1887 – Feb 10 and 36.7 / Mar 8.9 and 37.2
1888 – Feb 13.3 and 38.3 / Mar 13.3 and 40
1889 – Feb 11.1 and 37.2 / Mar 11.1 and 37.8
1890 – Feb 12.2 and 36.7 / Mar 10 and 36.1
1891 – Feb 10.55 and 41.7 / Mar 11.1 and 36.7
1892 – Feb 11.7 and 40.6 / Mar 12.2 and 36.7
1893 – Feb 10 and 37.8 / Mar 11.1 and 37.8
1894 – Feb 13.3 and 38.9 / Mar 8.3 and 40
1895 – Feb 11.1 and 38.9 / Mar 10.6 and 37.8
1896 – Feb 11.1 and 38.9 / Mar 11.7 and 36.7
1897 – Feb 9.4 and 40 / Mar 11.7 and 38.9
1898 – Feb 11.6 and 41.4 / Mar 10.2 and 37.6
1899 – Feb 13.4 and 39 / Mar 7.8 and 36.1
The Government Astronomer kept records of the number of Perth Gardens days over 32.22 degrees, averaged over 20 years from 1880 to 1899:
Mean Feb days over 32.22 – 12
Mean March days over 32.22 – 9
This year?
Feb 2009 days over 32.22 – 11
Mar 2009 days over 32.22 – 7
How about the mean temperatures?
Feb 2009 – mean min of 18 and mean max of 31.8
Mar 2009 – mean min of 14.9 and mean max of 29.1 (five days of month remaining)
Rather than a year by year breakdown, following are the averaged mean temps from 1876 to 1899:
Feb mean min from 1876 to 1899 – 17.2
Feb mean max from 1876 to 1899 – 31.44
Mar mean min from 1876 to 1899 – 16
Mar mean max from 1876 to 1899 – 29.3
For a broader comparison instead of just Feb/Mar this year, the average mean min and max temperatures from Perth Airport and Mt Lawley from 1944 to 2009:
Feb 17.4 and 31.5
Mar 16.1 and 29.5
Of course, historic comparisons pre-1910 aren’t accepted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology but it looks to me as though almost nothing has changed in 130 years, except we’ve had some very cold summer nights this year and it doesn’t get anywhere near as hot during the day. This is despite Perth being an urban heat island… the population in 1881 was 5,044 and this year it is 1.65 million.
More Western Australia historic temperature trends at http://www.waclimate.net

John F. Hultquist
March 25, 2009 11:29 pm

O/T Anthony, See ICECAP — LEFT COLUMN

Aron
March 26, 2009 12:28 am

Now this guy wants to be a modern prophet of doom
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7964880.stm

Allen63
March 26, 2009 12:38 am

I did not know the Dyson story. Great and inspiring read. I particularly liked the point that at a certain level of intellect and accomplishment, a PhD in a subject is superfluous — better to be a brilliant “so called” amateur with an open mind.
In any case, a person who taught himself calculus in a few days at the age of 13 and then followed a multi-disciplinary professional life has far more credibility regarding AGW than any climate scientist who has not followed the same path.

Richard Heg
March 26, 2009 12:40 am

Freeman Dyson on Global Warming 1of2 Bogus Climate Models

Freeman Dyson on Global Warming 2of2 Stratospheric Cooling

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