This is a review from CO2Science.com of an interesting paper looking at Oxygen 18 records in water driven cave formations (stalactite, stalagmite or flowstone) than span a 4000 year period. Here is a basic description from the NZ Climate Centre:
“These deposits occur within karst terranes in subterranean caverns mainly as calcite (CaCO3) precipitated from groundwater that percolated through overlying limestone or marble rock. Interior cave climates and environments are generally stable; temperatures have little annual variation and are usually close to the external local mean annual air temperature. Oxygen and carbon stable isotope values (18O/16O and 13C/12C) obtained from speleothem calcite have been employed at many locations in the world to determine past climate conditions and can be used to interpret environmental changes.”
– Anthony
Reference
Lorrey, A., Williams, P., Salinger, J., Martin, T., Palmer, J., Fowler, A., Zhao, J.-X. and Neil, H. 2008. Speleothem stable isotope records interpreted within a multi-proxy framework and implications for New Zealand palaeoclimate reconstruction. Quaternary International 187: 52-75.
What was done
Two master speleothem (stalactite, stalagmite or flowstone cave deposit) δ18O records were developed for New Zealand’s eastern North Island (ENI) and western South Island (WSI) for the period 2000 BC to about AD 1660 and 1825, respectively. The WSI record is a composite chronology composed of data derived from four speleothems from Aurora, Calcite, Doubtful Xanadu and Waiau caves, while the ENI record is a composite history derived from three speleothems from Disbelief and Te Reinga caves.
What was learned
For both the ENI and WSI δ18O records master speleothem histories, their warmest periods fall within the AD 900-1100 time interval, which is also where the peak warmth of a large portion of the temperature records found in our Medieval Warm Period Project fall (see our Interactive Map and Time Domain Plot).
What it means
Not wanting to acknowledge that the earth was likely as warm as, or even warmer than, it is currently a thousand or so years ago (when the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration was much lower than it is today), the world’s climate alarmists have been loath to admit there was an MWP or Medieval Warm Period anywhere other than in countries surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, the seven independent speleothem records that produced the results reported by Lorrey et al. are of great importance to the ongoing global warming debate, as they greatly advance the thesis that the MWP was indeed a global phenomenon, and that there is thus nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about earth’s current warmth, and that it therefore need not be attributed to the historical increase in the air’s CO2 content.
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Just a note – the links in the “what was learned” paragraph seem to be broken…
YES! Finally, the kinds of proof of the global aspect of The Medieval Warm Period. Wonder how the AGW crowd will spin this. Probably claim its even more proof of AGW since mankind used to keep warm by burning wood.
To purchase the article on-line costs $31,45. The free abstract unfortunately doesn’t say anything about the medieval warm period. So I have to rely on CO2science.org that indeed the warmest period fell within the AD 900-1100 time interval. Why such a relevant and important conclusion does not appear in the abstract may well be explained by the fact that such a conclusion would be politically incorrect.
Read for yourself:
Abstract
A primary step in the interpretation of speleothem stable isotope records (18O/16O and 13C/12C) is to conduct a comparison with other local palaeoclimate proxies. Here, two new master speleothem δ18O and δ13C records (one from eastern North Island, and the other from western/southern South Island, New Zealand) are evaluated against independent precipitation and temperature proxy information to assess their palaeoclimate reconstruction potential. This comparison also resulted in a serendipitous opportunity to reconstruct past circulation using climate regime classification [Lorrey, A.M., Fowler, A.M., Salinger, J., 2007a. Regional climate regime classification as a qualitative tool for interpreting multi-proxy palaeoclimate data spatial patterns: a New Zealand case study. Palaeo-3, in press], specifically because these two regional climate districts are hyper-sensitive to westerly circulation changes, and in many cases, exhibit contrasting climate character in response to circulation anomalies.
For both the western South Island and the eastern North Island master speleothem δ13C records, variations tracked changes in relative regional precipitation. The δ18O master speleothem record for both regions varied with temperature change. Both records contain strong regional climate signals that suggest they have good value for palaeoclimate reconstruction. The ensuing attempt at a multi-proxy reconstruction of regional climate regimes from the compiled proxies indicates past circulation in the New Zealand sector has varied considerably during the past four millennia. Centennial-scale circulation changes for the past 4000 years are evident, and are analogous to modern Blocking, Zonal and Trough regime types [Kidson J. W., 2000. An analysis of New Zealand synoptic types and their use in defining weather regimes. International Journal of Climatology 20, 299–316] that characterise changes in present-day (prevailing) westerly circulation. This palaeoclimate reconstruction indicates modern regional climate regime classification can be extended at least as far back as the temporal coverage of the records presented here, and it can likely be improved on with better dating control and the addition of new records with higher resolution. It is also anticipated that future work will expand to include more proxy data from across New Zealand to improve the clarity of past climate regime occurrence for the Late Holocene.
http://www.co2science.org does a wonderful job.
For reference: They have hundreds of similarly-detailed research papers summarized in their archive section by topics (ice and glaciers) and by individual subjects (ecalyptus trees).
This must be a fluke. There must be at least 7 or 8 hundred more studies to even come close to being robust. This is the comment that the alarmist will have for this paper. You have to understand the need for greater study only if it confirms the “consensus”. This will not be recognized for what it means and the authors will be roundly criticized for their “inept attempt at science”. I do so fear for our world that we are being duped by and unlearned populace willing to be sheep. The main stream media will not give this the attention that it deserves.
What a great study and from such a far far away place. Please that the media will wake up and report the news and not their opinion.
Bill Derryberry
The links to the Medieval Warm Period Project don’t go anywhere (404 Not Found, “Sorry, but you are looking for something that is not here”).
Too bad. I’d like to have something like that bookmarked. The claim that the MWP was an effect confined to the North Atlantic littoral has always boggled me. Almost all of the “lost cities” of the world have their peak periods at either that time or the Roman Warm; for instance, the Puebloans of the American Southwest occupied Chaco Canyon between AD 850 and 1250, and disappeared when the cold, dry conditions following destroyed their resource base. Angkor Wat was built near the end of the MWP; Teotihuacan was abandoned at about the beginning of it, about the only example of a bad effect.
Regards,
Ric
An excellent article. We need to get this out. How can this information survive the common political media drownout.
Steve
and the case just keeps building!
Links to MWP, etc. broken -404 error.
Onteresting to see another confirmation of the often ‘overlooked’ MWP, anathema and inexplicable to AGW orthodoxy.
What beauties.
What’s significant about the MWP is serious claims that it was WARMER than today – eg a Greenland burial ground in a place that today is permafrosted. The warmists grudgingly allow a little MWP – so long as it stays less than today. Do these speleo records trump today’s temperatures?
Anthony, the links under “What Was Learned” don’t seem to be working.
Oops
A titch off topic, Anthony – but it all comes together at the source of AGW whackoism.
I read Hansen’s letter to Michelle and Barack.
“A carbon tax is honest, clear and effective. It will increase energy prices, but low and middle income people, especially, will find ways to reduce carbon emissions so as to come out ahead.”
My friends.
The elitism embodied in that statement takes my breath away.
As we possibly enter a deep solar minimum and a cooling planet –
Al Gore gets a pass as he jets his carbon-spewing, pocket-book padding ego around the planet while the little guy is exhorted to turn down his thermostat and cut back on his trips to the grocery store to (ahem) ‘come out ahead’.
“Come out ahead! ?”
Really. I keep thinking I’ve seen and heard the worst of the hypocrisy.
Over the holidays, Ebenezzer Scrooge’s remark regarding the poor who would rather die than go to the poor house –
” . . they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population . . ”
resonates eerily with Hansen’s crusade.
Why doesn’t Hansen just tell the modest income polluters to stop breathing.
Creepy.
Well its obvious isn’t it. They produced 2 master records so one of them needs to be inverted and then the 2 averaged. That way they will get the correct “no temperature change” in thousand(s) of years graph.
At least as accurate as bristlecone tree rings…
A stalagmite from China produced similar support for the MWP:
The study also showed that the ample summer rains of the Northern Song Dynasty coincided with the beginning of the well-known Medieval Warm Period in Europe and Greenland.
Warmer in the Pacific region 1000 years ago eh? That would make sense as the ancestors of the Maori were voyaging about then.
“New Zealand was originally settled by Polynesians from Eastern Polynesia, with DNA evidence suggesting a small Melanesian component. It is generally believed that settlement occurred some time between 1000 and 1300 CE, although some evidence suggests first settlement dates back to 2000 years ago.[1] The descendants of these settlers became known as the Māori, forming a distinct culture of their own. Separate settlement of the tiny Chatham Islands in the east of New Zealand about 1500 CE produced the Moriori people; linguistic evidence indicates that the Moriori were mainland Māori who ventured eastward.[2]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_New_Zealand
Anthony,
2 of the links above return the following: Error 404 – Sorry, but you are looking for something that is not here
Specifically:
Medieval Warm Period Project (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/data/mwp/mwpp.php)
Interactive Map and Time Domain Plot (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/data/timemap/mwpmap.html)
I believe they should be:
Medieval Warm Period Project (http://co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php)
and Interactive Map and Time Domain Plot (http://co2science.org/data/timemap/mwpmap.html)
REPLY: Fixed, thanks…this happens when WordPress tries to resolve partial URL’s that are local to the server referenced. – Anthony
Wow! Real science This seems to be something that could be replicated in other parts of the world. I wonder if Obama would fund such a study?
Very interesting. Glad to see more confirmation of the medieval warm period being worldwide.
Also interesting is how incredibly stupid posts show up under possibly related posts (automatically generated). Somebody needs to reset that automatic generator with a sledgehammer.
To follow up on Lucy’s statement. If the global warming hysterics cannot eradicate the MWP, and CO2Science.org does a great job covering all the work that shows it, then they have to adopt the following, more tenuous position:
“OK, so there was a little MWP, possibly global but we’re not admitting that, but it was due to natural phenomena. Today’s GW is due to man-made CO2”.
You can see the fallacies here easily enough:
1. If it was natural then, why is it not natural now?
2. If it is not natural now, why have these natural processes stopped?
3. If the was a MWP, then there was a Little Ice Age as well and obviously it has warmed up since then; so why should MMCO2 be the cause?
4. If natural processes can warm and cool the planet over such periods of time with such magnitude, then this should be subtracted from current warming, and then the left-over warming could, perhaps, be attributed to CO2; but even then, more likely land-use change.
The only way out for them is to deny the MWP and LIA. And this is where the dishonesty steps in.
Cathy
“Why doesn’t Hansen just tell the modest income polluters to stop breathing.”
John Holdren, Obama’s science advisor, will find ways to mediate that little detail.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/12/crackpot-john-holdren-will-become.html
“population growth causes a disproportionate negative impact on the environment”.
AGW, It’s all about man and his opportunity of Government power and control, nothing less, nothing more.
OT sorta…
Does anyone else think this is not a good idea?
Plan B, GeoEngineering to Combat CO2
Let’s start tinkering with systems that we don’t fully understand, for a problem that may or may not exist. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?
The “scientists” have reached another consinsus. A tacit admission that atmospheric CO2 is not a problem.
————————————————————-
Climate scientists: it’s time for ‘Plan B’
Poll of international experts by The Independent reveals consensus that CO2 cuts have failed – and their growing support for technological intervention
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-scientists-its-time-for-plan-b-1221092.html
Injecting the air with particles to reflect sunlight
The Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen suggested in 2006 that it may be possible to inject artificial sulphate particles into the upper atmosphere – the stratosphere.
“Relying on geoengineering schemes such as sulphate aerosols would be analogous to putting the planet on life support. If future humanity failed to pay its ‘climate bill’ – a bill that we left them, thank you very much – they would bear the full brunt of climate change within a very short time.”
Injecting the air with particles to reflect sunlight
Creating low clouds over the oceans
John Latham of the United States National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado is working with Stephen Salter of Edinburgh University and Mike Smith at Leeds to atomise seawater to produce tiny droplets to form low-level maritime clouds that cover part of the oceanic surface.
Fertilising the sea with iron filings
This idea arises from the fact that the limiting factor in the multiplication of phytoplankton – tiny marine plants – is the lack of iron salts in the sea.
Mixing the deep water of the ocean
The Earth scientist James Lovelock, working with Chris Rapley of the Science Museum in London, devised a plan to put giant tubes into the seas to take surface water rich in dissolved CO2 to lower depths where it will not surface.
Giant mirrors in space
Some scientists suggest it would be possible to deflect sunlight with a giant mirror or a fleet of small mirrors between the Earth and the Sun.
Good selection from the extensive resources at http://www.co2science.org. Many more available.
The media filter and established AGW narrative is a tough one to overcome, but there will be considerable reluctance to create economic problems under current conditions. There is a policy split in the new administration, according to the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/washington/03enviro.html?ref=us
There will be a big debate in congress this year, and it is still too early for Nature to supply a strong rebuttal in a new Dalton (or Maunder) minimum. However, it is easy to add your voice to the public input. Contact information is available at http://www.congress.org, for example, or
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
R.E. Hotz, science writer at the Wall Street Journal, has a column on global temps right now. He did answer an email I sent suggesting more balance, and remarked that he shares skepticism about model outputs. I suggest that the 31,000 signers of the Petition Project can supply at least some counterweight to the hysterics. If you read some of the public comments on CO2-as-pollution at the EPA website, for example, you will find that doomsday psychology motivates most of the messages. We may have to wait for cooling that exceeds Hansen’s adjustment skills.