UPDATE: Former California State climatologist Jim Goodridge presents some data that suggests that ocean temperature may be an equal or greater driving force behind Los Angeles Temperature increases, see graph below.
Source: NASA JPL
UPDATE: Sea surface temperature anomaly versus Los Angeles air temperature:
Source: Former California State climatologist Jim Goodridge – click for larger image
Perhaps the adjuster should adjust the adjustments a bit. This press release from NASA Jet Propulsion Lab says that most of the increase in temperature has to do with ubanization:
[NASA’s JPL Bill] Patzert says global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases is responsible for some of the overall heating observed in Los Angeles and the rest of California. Most of the increase in heat days and length of heat waves, however, is due to a phenomenon called the “urban heat island effect.”
Heat island-induced heat waves are a growing concern for urban and suburban dwellers worldwide. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, studies around the world have shown that this effect makes urban areas from 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 6 degrees Celsius) warmer than their surrounding rural areas.
Patzert says this effect is steadily warming Southern California, though more modestly than some larger urban areas around the world. “Dramatic urbanization has resulted in an extreme makeover for Southern California, with more homes, lawns, shopping centers, traffic, freeways and agriculture, all absorbing and retaining solar radiation, making our megalopolis warmer,” Patzert said.
Then there’s station siting issues, like this station on a rooftop of a fire station in Santa, Ana, CA. Note the air conditioner units all around.
Santa Ana Station looking North. Click for a larger image
The temperature record from that station, courtesy the Orange County Register:
And my complete write-up on it is available here
Here is the scientifc paper by Patzert, Ladochy, and Tamrazian which is cited by the NASA JPL press release.
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NASA JPL vs NASA GISS, sounds like the JPL people at least understand that all that bitumen and concrete have a significant impact on temperature in urban areas. Wonder if there will be an inter-office memo from GISS across to JPL telling them to butt out!
“Perhaps the adjuster should adjust he adjustments a bit.”
You could have done that on purpose of course, but if not, you might want to adjust that statement. I know, picky, but ironically funny nonetheless. Keeping it like that would almost be worth it.
After lurking about these parts now for about 2 months, I guess it’s time to dip my toe in the water. I love that picture of Downtown Santa Ana as I was born about a mile or so from that station (1960 has it really been that long?). Having lived in the OC for nearly 50 years I can safely say, I can’t tell a difference in the climate then to now. The biggest difference I notice from now and the sixties is the reduction in smog. Despite the dramatic increase in population the air is much better now. Don’t get wrong it’s not mountain fresh, but stage 3 alerts were common in the summer when I was young. I can’t even remember the last stage 1 even though the threshold is much lower than it was back in the old days. As far as climate goes the summers are still warm, winters are mild, the Santa Winds come and go, and so does the June gloom.
Thanks Anthony, this site is daily reading.
Martin
“U.K. Ministry of Defence: Global warming goes on, deniers are deluded”
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/9/24/113052/320/
Perhaps the Adjust-in-chief should “adjust” the conclusion of that particular group of NASA that perform a true scientific mission.
Great! A NASA turf battle.
Bad siting + UHI = some really wild temperature extremes. Folks at GISS are really gonna be ticked off at JPL for messing with their parade.
I wonder if Hansen will demand Patzert stand trial for hearsay?
Or perhaps Al will call for juvenile vandalism of JPL?
This is great news… it’s about time sanity has come to NASA. Now only if NASA gives Hansen the boot. Veritas vos liberabit.
It’s been suggested many times by the AGW crowd that roofs should be white in order to reflect some of that evil warmth back into outer space.
Shouldn’t they be the first to demand that blacktop must now be whitetop?
great article!
Another reason why your blog is a must read for me daily.
Let the unintended consequences flow forth!
Hi Anthony
One of the implied selling points of WUWT is that it is different from ‘other sites’. As such, you need to justify your decision to censor some conversations.
May we have w ruling on this?
Brendan H
A ruling on what?
[snip]
I think “Brendan H.’ wants Anthony to justify moderation of comments.
Personally, I prefer no moderation. Moderation stunts the exchange of ideas and opinions with delays. However, this is Anthony’s site and he rules — benevolently, I would add 🙂
Someone is starting to pay attention, or speak up…amazing. If the numbers from surfacestation.org keep holding up, we will see that we are a lot cooler than we are led to believe. The last time I checked, with over 40% of the stations surveyed, the average minimum error is at least 5 deg F due to siting or UHI. Would anyone have looked at this if not for Anthony? Thank you sir.
Moderation compels some level of civility in what is often a contentious arena.
On the urban effect:
I live in Athens Greece, and in 1965 moved from downtown to what then was the suburbs at the feet of Mt Hymetus. No car then, but I still remember in the bus rides during the summer how the air changed and cooled, particularly at night, as we reached a specific point on the route. Then Athens started expanding, from 1 million to the 4 million that it is now in the Athens area. The point moved with the years, and it is now way beyond and uphill from where I live. Still we are one to two degrees C better at night in the summer.
Weather forecasts acknowledge this by giving different temperature forecasts for downtown, the seashore and the northern suburbs.
Brendan H (19:19:49) : “One of the implied selling points of WUWT is that it is different from ‘other sites’. As such, you need to justify your decision to censor some conversations.”
Please find elsewhere to post your repetitive off-topic circular logic. Take your veiled insults with you as well.
Moderators need to get back to “thinking like like the boss.” Comments “noise” has become way too loud and marginally on-topic banter should be limited.
AnyMouse (18:43:50) : ” Shouldn’t they be the first to demand that blacktop must now be whitetop?”
Funny. But seriously, on what basis do anything? Blacktop’s potential impact on global climate is, meteorically speaking, a fractional part per million kind of thing.
Let us not forget that there is some natural warming from ocean circulation involved that Patzert and his science dude friend continue to deny.
Silly spell check mistake: meteorically s/b metaphorically.
Here’s LA county population growth over the same period, for comparison, in millions
1890 0.1
1900 0.15
1910 0.5
1920 1
1930 2.5
1940 3
1950 4.5
1960 6
1970 7
1980 7.5
1990 9
2000 9.7
a pretty good match!
It seems to me that the urban heat island effect is not the real issue. Anyone with any knowledge of the subject would agree that it happens all around the world. Nor are other effects caused by mankind’s activities – agriculture, tree plantations etc etc – controversial.
So I don’t think this paper is going to change the AGW debate very much.
What is in issue, is the exact extent of the heat island effect. I would really like to see a much wider investigation of the quantum of these effects. It would be very interesting indeed to see a study which would allow us to estimate the effect for any particular urban environment. On the other hand it may not be possible.
It’s gotta be better than spending money on hockey sticks 🙂
Hi Anthony
As I read the Los Angeles temperature graph it is not all asphalt in as much as the sea water correlation for the ocean station at 325N, 127.5W has an r^2 of .56 suggesting that the trend is about 56% sea influence and perhaps 44% urban effects.
Jim G
REPLY: For readers that don’t know, Jim is the former California State Climatologist. Welcome Jim. Perhaps you can cite one of your studies on this? – Anthony
Personally, I think the ability to comment on this blog is a luxury. There are a lot of intelligent people who cast a wide net and bring to light some very thought provoking papers and news articles. A lot of the comments have moved into a more typical realm of internet comments recently due to some of the political posts (Hansen’s testimony, etc) which saddens me. The reason I have frequently read Anthony’s blog is due to the quality of the thoughts in the posts and the comments. My modus operendi here living in the peanut gallery is to try to limit my posts to informative or questioning comments. Going off the surfacestations.org project (wish I could afford to buy gas to do a survey in IA) I’ve always thought of this as a place for scientific discourse, which is a real blast to the experimentalist in me.
What I guess I’m saying is keep up the good work Anthony and the moderators he has appointed. Let’s keep the peanut gallery to thoughtful comments!