A research group coordinated by the University of Helsinki was able to measure a spike in radiocarbon concentration of trees in Lapland that occurred after the Carrington flare. This discovery helps to prepare for dangerous solar storms.
The Carrington Event of 1859 is one of the largest recorded solar storms in the last two centuries. It was seen as white light flares on a giant sunspot group, fires at telegraph stations and disturbances in geomagnetic measurements, as well as aurorae even in tropical regions.
In a joint study carried out by the University of Helsinki, Natural Resources Institute Finland and the University of Oulu, a sign of an increase in radiocarbon concentrations following the Carrington storm was detected for the first time in tree rings. Previously, radiocarbon traces have only been detected from far more intense solar storms.
Discovery through a cosmic marker
Encounters between strong magnetised clouds of charged particles released from the Sun, known as solar plasma flows, and Earth’s geomagnetic field result in geomagnetic storms. The geomagnetic field directs the solar storm particles into the atmosphere primarily through the Polar regions. The most visible consequence of the phenomenon are aurorae.
In the upper atmosphere, sufficiently high-energy particles can, through nuclear reactions, also produce radiocarbon (14C), a radioactive isotope of carbon. Over the course of months and years, radiocarbon ends up in the lower atmosphere as part of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and eventually in plants through photosynthesis. The process of photosynthesis preserves the information contained in carbon dioxide in the annual rings of trees.
To obtain the information held by radiocarbon, samples are extracted by carving from the wood material grown over individual years. The samples are processed to cellulose and the cellulose into pure carbon by burning and chemical reduction. The fraction of radiocarbon in pure carbon is measured using a particle accelerator.
“Radiocarbon is like a cosmic marker describing phenomena associated with Earth, the solar system and outer space,” says Markku Oinonen, Director of the University of Helsinki’s Laboratory of Chronology, who headed the study.
Mapping solar storms
A solar storms corresponding to the Carrington event in modern times would disrupt electrical and mobile networks and cause major problems for satellite and navigation systems, leading to problems in, for example, air traffic. This is why accurate knowledge of solar behaviour benefits society.
Solar storms smaller and more common than the Carrington storms can be studied with measuring devices and satellites nowadays, while larger ones can be investigated, for example, by measuring radiocarbon concentration in tree rings.
So far, it has not been possible to study specifically medium-sized storms such as the Carrington event, which have not occurred in modern times, using conventional radiocarbon techniques. This recent study opens up a potential new way of investigating the frequency of Carrington-sized storms, which may help to better prepare for future threats.
Increasingly accurate information on the carbon cycle
The results were interpreted using a numerical model of radiocarbon production and transport developed by researchers at the University of Oulu.
“The dynamic atmospheric carbon transport model was specifically developed for describing geographical differences in the distribution of radiocarbon in the atmosphere,” says Postdoctoral Researcher Kseniia Golubenko from the University of Oulu.
What was significant in the recently published study was how the radiocarbon content of trees in Lapland differed from that of trees at lower latitudes. The first measurements were carried out at the Accelerator Laboratory of the University of Helsinki, while repeat measurements conducted in two other laboratories significantly reduced the previous uncertainties.
The discovery can help to better understand atmospheric dynamics and the carbon cycle from the time before human-generated fossil fuel emissions, enabling the development of increasingly detailed carbon cycle models.
“It’s possible that the excess of radiocarbon caused by the solar flare was primarily transported to the lower atmosphere through northern regions, contrary to the general understanding of its movement,” muses Doctoral Researcher Joonas Uusitalo from the Laboratory of Chronology.
Other sources of radiocarbon
“It’s also possible that the cyclic change in the production of radiocarbon in the upper atmosphere caused by the variation in solar activity has resulted in the local differences on the ground level seen in our findings,” Uusitalo adds.
According to Uusitalo, the dominant fraction of radiocarbon is produced by galactic cosmic rays coming from outside the solar system, even though exceptionally strong solar storms generate individual bursts of the isotope in the atmosphere. Cosmic rays, in turn, are weakened by solar wind, a continuous flux of particles originating in the Sun that fluctuates between stronger and weaker in 11-year cycles.
The topic requires further research. Historical records show that significant geomagnetic storms also took place in 1730 and 1770, which is why their tracking is likely to be in focus next.
The recently published study was carried out as a collaborative project of the University of Helsinki’s Laboratory of Chronology and Department of Physics, and Natural Resources Institute Finland. Researchers from the University of Oulu, Nagoya University, Yamagata University and ETH Zurich also contributed to the study. The study received funding from the Research Council of Finland, the Finnish Cultural Foundation and the Emil Aaltonen Foundation.
Original article: Joonas Uusitalo, Kseniia Golubenko, Laura Arppe, Nicolas Brehm, Thomas Hackman, Hisashi Hayakawa, Samuli Helama, Kenichiro Mizohata, Fusa Miyake, Harri Mäkinen, Pekka Nöjd, Eija Tanskanen, Fuyuki Tokanai, Eugene Rozanov, Lukas Wacker, Ilya Usoskin, Markku Oinonen. Transient Offset in 14C After the Carrington Event Recorded by Polar Tree Rings. AGU, 2024. DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106632
Humanity is very puny…
Another 25 years or so of increasing dependence on the internet for everything followed by a Carrington Event will be interesting.
That is interesting in the sense of the Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”
I always understood it was a wish, not a curse. Who wants to live in boring times?
I do. In boring times, there are no wars, few hurricanes, typhons and cyclones, no protests and riots, no heat waves or cold snaps, etc.
The older I get, the more boring I want everything to be.
No new good writings, no exiting new music, no interesting new science, no new good family news, etc.?
No joining the throng of refugees.
“interesting times” – war, revolution, political upheaval, natural disasters. I’ll take boring TIMES with an interesting life. At least I have control over the latter.
When you join the masses scurrying out of town with all your belonging in a pillow case, you’ll long for stability.
Yes. I’m talking about interesting times, not frightening times.
Still no-one has answered my original question which asked if it was a curse or a wish.
It has always commonly been interpreted as a curse, phrased in a way that makes it appear to be positive. Much like the “gift” of immortality in many stories is found to actually be a curse.
There really isn’t a known correlating Chinese saying, the “ancient Chinese curse” is apocryphal.
You can take it however you want, just be aware of it’s commonly accepted meaning.
Indeed, that is my understanding.
You know, current times are interesting for the Democrat Party.
And, yes, I view that factoid as a curse on the Donkeys, a blessing for most of us.
I don’t think the Chinese used this saying. And I think the real curse is to NOT live in interesting times. The Chinese word for crisis is Wei Ji (in Pinyin).
The Meaning Behind the Chinese Word
Crises yield opportunities.
An article in WSJ today explores a pet theory of Elon Musk, called his “simulation hypothesis”, which posits that we may be living in a computer simulation. Critically, his thinking goes, things must be (and remain) interesting lest we be “cancelled” like a boring Netflix series. “Really, we have one goal,” he says, “to keep it interesting.”
Hear, hear!
The shaft of Mann’s “hockeystick” stands as the icon for a world order unvarying, bland and “stable” – climate warped by our manhandling of it. It’s the misapprehension that there is an average world temperature, an edenic stasis that we’ve screwed up by breathing and trying to keep warm in winter and cool in summer. The real “curse” is living in a state of paranoia.
It was Mann trying to give the rest of us the shaft.
And we are far into the “state of paranoia”.
But, accurate knowledge of solar behavior could threaten Climate Ideology, and we can’t have that now, can we?
Try displaying a graph coordinating El Nino Southern Oscillations with solar cycles will get one cancelled in many locations.
‘Previously, radiocarbon traces have only been detected from far more intense solar storms.’
Does anyone know offhand when these far more intense solar storms occurred?
I had the same question. I assumed the Carrington Event was quite high intensity, which happens only once a century, or so. It’s not obvious to me what would be “far more intense”, how frequent that might be, and how we might know about it in the long ago past.
The 774-775 event was about 15 times as powerful as the Carrington Event.
The 993-994 event was about 7 times as powerful as the Carrington Event.
Because humanity have allowed ourselves to become so dependent on electronics; another such occurrence would almost certainly result in a shocking loss of life, and in economic disruption that would last for years.
The 774-775 event was about 15 times as powerful
I’m curious how we know that?
Carbon-14 in tree rings; Beryllium-10 and Chlorine-36 in ice cores.
George, thanks for the explanation. John, thanks for the link.
List of solar storms – Wikipedia
To be picky–percentage of C14 is measured with a mass spectrometer, not a particle accelerator. (although a mass spec does accelerate particles, technically). I suspect that was a translation error.
Solar storms (or the sun in general) is a major source of Carbon in atmospheric CO2?
Of radioactive C14. Half life 5,730 years.
C14 is made from the decay of Argon. (I’m a geo), is solar wind delivering C14 to the atmosphere? Is Carrington events causing increased Argon decay in the atmosphere?
My understanding is that C14 is formed from N14 by solar and cosmic radiation.
A Layman’s question.
How do all these events affect the results of carbon-14 dating?
It would seem to call into question some of the past estimated ages, especially the ages before we had a good guess about when such events occurred, wouldn’t it?
Other dating methods depending on isotopes would have also been affected, wouldn’t they?
If such an event coincided with the death of the organism being dated it could skew the number some. Most radiometric dating requires a certain amount of educated guesswork.
I have serious doubts about the effect of another Carrington being as bad as everyone seems to think. Every piece of electrical and electronic equipment has been designed and constructed with the effects of the1859 Carrington event in mind. Steps have been taken to harden electrical devices and circuitry. It would go hand in hand with protection from an EM pulse. Which we know the military has put a big effort into.
Even if you know it might be useful some day it may not make economic sense to make an expenditure. An example of this was the 2021 Texas power crisis; which could theoretically have been averted by having electric heaters on natural gas wellheads, but they would be so seldom needed that it doesn’t make sense to install and maintain them.
How do they chronologically relate an event to tree rings? Do they separate the rings of the tree into individual years? Seems iffy to me.
From Grok: Miyake events (named after Japanese physicist Fusa Miyake, who first identified one in 2012) are extreme solar particle events far larger than the 1859 Carrington Event, the most intense directly observed geomagnetic storm in history.
These events appear as sharp spikes in cosmogenic isotopes like carbon-14 in tree rings and beryllium-10 in ice cores, indicating massive bombardments of high-energy protons from the Sun.
The well-known Miyake events include those in 774–775 CE and 993–994 CE, estimated to be about 10 times more powerful than the Carrington Event in terms of particle flux. The largest confirmed one occurred around 14,300 years ago (approximately 12,350 BCE), roughly twice the intensity of the 774 CE event and thus an order of magnitude greater than Carrington.
Evidence from tree rings in the French Alps and other proxies shows this ancient event was the strongest detected so far. Miyake events are rare, occurring perhaps every 400–2,400 years, and a modern one could devastate satellites, power grids, and communications far more than a Carrington repeat.
Years ago Mototaka Nakamura wrote critics to the Climate models based on his long History to build them. I asked the Gemini AI to combine his critics, the Climate models and this fresh study. Here is the interesting answer:
Summary: Transient Offset in ¹⁴C After the Carrington Event
The Discovery
The study by Uusitalo et al. (2024) identifies, for the first time, a radiocarbon (^{14}C) signature of the 1859 Carrington Event—the most intense solar storm in recorded history—within the annual rings of trees in Lapland (high latitudes). Crucially, this signal is nearly absent or significantly dampened in trees from lower latitudes.
Key Findings
• Regional Asymmetry: High-latitude trees (Lapland) captured a distinct ^{14}C spike between 1861 and 1863, while mid-latitude trees showed no significant offset.
• Atmospheric Transport: The findings suggest that solar-proton-produced ^{14}C enters the troposphere rapidly at the poles via the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange (STE), before it has time to mix globally.
Analysis through the Lens of Mototaka Nakamura
The discrepancy between the tree-ring data and current climate models aligns with the critiques of Mototaka Nakamura, who argues that global climate models (GCMs) are fundamentally flawed in their representation of atmospheric dynamics.
1. Failure of the “Well-Mixed” Assumption:
Standard carbon cycle models assume the atmosphere is a relatively well-mixed reservoir. This study proves that atmospheric transport is highly non-uniform. The “transient offset” recorded in Lapland exposes the inability of models to simulate local vertical mixing accurately.
2. Parametrization Problems:
As Nakamura has highlighted, models rely on simplified “parametrizations” for small-scale processes. The fact that current state-of-the-art models cannot replicate this regional ^{14}C difference suggests that the physics of how air moves between the stratosphere and the surface at the poles is misrepresented.
3. Implications for Climate Prediction:
If models cannot accurately simulate the transport of a sudden pulse of ^{14}C, their ability to predict the long-term sequestration and transport of CO_2 and heat is brought into question. This supports Nakamura’s thesis that the cumulative errors in atmospheric fluid dynamics make long-term climate forecasts highly unreliable.
Reference:
Uusitalo, J., et al. (2024). Transient Offset in ¹⁴C After the Carrington Event Recorded by Polar Tree Rings. Geophysical Research Letters.