The Week That Was: 2025 05 31 (May 31, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when one contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries to comprehend only a little of this mystery every day.”— Albert Einstein
Number of the Week: From 12% to 18%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: TWTW begins with a lengthy discussion to conclude the series whether climate science as practiced is a physical science. Then, TWTW discusses one of the many natural events that may be cyclical but not considered by the UN IPCC. It concludes with a decision by the Supreme Court that may limit the endless reviews spawned under the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
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A Physical Science? On February 1, TWTW began a series asking the question; Is Climate Science a Physical Science? Is it based on physical evidence where the results of experiments and observations are the ultimate judge? As Richard Feynman stated in The Meaning of It All: “If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proved by observation, that rule is wrong.”
The journey since then has been convoluted by many political changes that changed the focus of TWTW, but the key question remains clear. Does an increase in atmosphere carbon dioxide which has a small temperature effect by slowing the cooling of Earth result in an increase in water vapor that will double the influence of carbon dioxide and other effects and will result in what is called “runaway greenhouse?”
As shown in the 1979 Charney Report and in climate modeler Tim Palmer’s The Primacy of Doubt, this increase (positive feedback) from water vapor is critical in asserting that the slowing of the cooling of Earth is causing dangerous warming. Note that greenhouse gases are not a source of heat but merely warm the atmosphere by partially blocking the emission of infrared radiation from the surface of Earth to space, thereby reducing around-the-clock cooling. Also note that infrared radiation emitted downward by these gases cannot significantly heat the oceans because infrared radiation does not penetrate the oceans beyond a few millimeters (less than one inch).
The February 1 TWTW discussed the physical evidence produced by the EPA Technical Support Document for the EPA’s Endangerment Finding. Interestingly, the document emphasizes carbon dioxide but does not discuss the role of water vapor, which is critical in asserting that CO2-caused warming endangers life on Earth.
That TWTW also discussed the findings of Howard “Cork” Hayden who stated that to understand the effects of different greenhouse gases
“involves quantum mechanics (the quantitative nature of vibrational and rotational states of molecules), molecular spectroscopy (how various wavelengths of IR interact with molecules at what temperatures and atmospheric pressures), and statistical mechanics (the temperature dependent populations of excited states).
Yet college and university courses in Climate Science do not cover such fields. Further, of the six UN IPCC reports, only one has a graph of any spectrum (range of wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation) and that is wrong. It was inconsistent with observations. Hayden concludes:
“To put it fairly, but bluntly, ‘climate science’—whatever its merits—is not the science of the greenhouse effect.”
The February 8 TWTW discussed the measurement of the greenhouse effect which is largely omitted by the UN IPCC and its collaborators. The surface of the earth emits a blackbody spectrum of infrared radiation, characterized by a graph (the “spectrum”) with a skewed bell curve (called the “Planck curve”) representing the intensity of infrared versus wavelength. The Stefan-Boltzmann law tells us the total amount of IR emitted at all wavelengths, and that amount is proportional to the fourth power of the absolute temperature.
In contrast, the spectrum of IR going to space, as measured by instruments aboard satellites, is a jagged curve, and it shows about 40% less IR going to space that is emitted by the surface. These measurements validate calculations by Karl Schwarzschild made in the 1910s, and the spectrum is called the Schwarzschild curve. Various gases in the atmosphere, most notably H2O and CO2, interact with IR in many complicated ways. (For an example, a CO2 molecule that has not absorbed IR can be hit by a nitrogen molecule in such a way that it causes the CO2 molecule to emit IR.) The net result of countless interactions is a net reduction in IR going to space. Starting with the Nimbus satellite flying over Guam in 1970, there have been numerous observations of the IR spectrum going to space, and they confirm the Schwarzschild calculations.
The difference between the Planck curve and the Schwarzschild jagged curve is a measurement of the Greenhouse Effect. It is important to note that these measurements are taken on clear days without the interference of clouds. Clouds generally cool the Earth by reflecting solar energy. There is no adequate theory for the formation and dissipation of clouds.
The measurement of the Greenhouse Effect is largely omitted in the calculations of the UN IPCC and its collaborators. It involves the processes that change the nature of the spectrum emitted by Earth and that actually is observed to escape to space. The Greenhouse Effect reduces the intensity and changes the shape of the IR spectrum.
The calculation of the spectrum of IR emitted to space is quite involved; how could it be otherwise, since it creates a jagged line? It involves quantum mechanics (the quantitative nature of vibrational and rotational states of molecules), molecular spectroscopy (how various wavelengths of IR interact with molecules and at what temperatures and atmospheric pressures), and statistical mechanics (the temperature-dependent populations of excited states). Except for one incorrect example, none of this is discussed by the UN IPCC and its collaborators.
It is a real lapse of judgement by the IPCC and its collaborators to never consider such topics and calculations. The IPCC (and its predecessors like atmospheric modelers Manabe & Wetherald) erred by assuming the US Standard atmosphere with zero water vapor and then trying to patch in water vapor later on via some mysterious “feedback” mechanism. It’s foolish to ignore that the primary Greenhouse Gas is Water Vapor and treat a secondary greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, as primary. They were wrong in 1967 and continuing it has been wrong ever since.
TWTW continued with the discussion of similar topics such as the roles of Atoms and Molecules in the Infrared Spectrum and the importance of the Greenhouse Effect in preventing severe nighttime cooling of Earth’s land masses, freezing all growing vegetation. The websites of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) were reviewed, as well as a presentation by Professor Cornelis A. (Kees) de Lange of the Netherlands who pointed out the that the models used by the IPCC and its collaborators are not suitable for prediction – when tested they produce false results – yet they are used for prediction of future weather events.
The SEPP website lists the key topics for each TWTW.
The most important topic from increasing carbon dioxide is largely ignored by the IPCC and its collaborators. It is the increasing greening of the Earth from increasing photosynthesis. Earth is becoming more vibrant and livable. Why do many organizations in the West and Western governments oppose the use of fossil fuels which produce carbon dioxide? The earlier pollution problems have largely been solved and carbon dioxide, essential for food needed by complex life, is not a pollutant.
Perhaps the best answer to these questions can be found in a 2015 essay by Cécile Haberstich, et al., by the Société de Calcul Mathématique SA (Mathematical Modelling Company, Corp.), “The battle against global warming: an absurd, costly and pointless crusade.” Ron Clutz mentions the essay which was mentioned in previous TWTWs. The paper was produced shortly before the ridiculous Paris Agreement came out of the 2015 Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Paris Agreement is little more than an exhibit of contempt for modern civilization and prosperity.
(When reading the essay, one must recall that the term crusade has more meanings than religious. It can be a vigorous campaign for political or social change. For example, Dwight Eisenhower titled his wartime memoirs with Crusade in Europe.)
After a quote, the authors from the Mathematical Modelling Company. begin with:
“All public policies, in France, Europe and throughout the world, find their origin and inspiration in the battle against global warming. The initial credo is simple: temperatures at the surface of the planet have been rising constantly for the past thirty years, and human beings are to blame.
This is leading to all sorts of discussions, conferences, and regulations, which are having an enormous impact on our economy. Every area of activity is affected: transport, housing, energy – to name just a few. Why do we need to save energy? It is quite simple: we have to reduce human impact on the planet. This is the fundamental credo.
The impact on the entire field of scientific research is particularly clear and especially pernicious. No project can be launched, on any subject whatsoever, unless it makes direct reference to global warming. You want to look at the geology of the Garonne Basin? It is, after all, an entirely normal and socially useful subject in every respect. Well, your research will be funded, approved, and published only if it mentions the potential for geological storage of CO2. It is appalling.
The crusade has invaded every area of activity and everyone’s thinking: the battle against CO2 has become a national priority. How have we reached this point in a country that claims to be rational?
At the root lie the declarations made by the IPCC, which have been repeated over the years and taken up by the European Commission and the Member States. France, which likes to see itself as the ‘good boy of Europe,’ adds an extra layer of virtue to every crusade. When others introduce reductions, we will on principle introduce bigger reductions, without ever questioning their appropriateness: a crusade is virtuous by its very nature. And you can never be too virtuous.
But mathematicians do not believe in crusades; they look at facts, figures, observations, and arguments.
This White Paper is divided into three parts:
There is not a single fact, figure or observation that leads us to conclude that the world’s climate is in any way ‘disturbed.’ It is variable, as it has always been, but rather less so now than during certain periods or geological eras. Modern methods are far from being able to accurately measure the planet’s global temperature even today, so measurements made 50 or 100 years ago are even less reliable.
Concentrations of CO2 vary, as they always have done; the figures that are being released are biased and dishonest. Rising sea levels are a normal phenomenon linked to upthrust buoyancy; they have nothing to do with so-called global warming. As for extreme weather events – they are no more frequent now than they have been in the past. We ourselves have processed the raw data on hurricanes.
We are being told that a temperature increase of more than 2ºC by comparison with the beginning of the industrial age would have dramatic consequences and absolutely has to be prevented. When they hear this, people worry: hasn’t there already been an increase of 1.9ºC? Actually, no: the figures for the period 1995-2015 show an upward trend of about 1ºC every hundred years! Of course, these figures, which contradict public policies, are never brought to public attention.
Chapter 2: The crusade is costly.
Direct aid for industries that are completely unviable (such as photovoltaics and wind turbines) but presented as ‘virtuous’ runs into billions of euros, according to recent reports published by the Cour des Comptes (French Audit Office) in 2013. But the highest cost lies in the principle of ‘energy saving,’ which is presented as especially virtuous. Since no civilization can develop when it is saving energy, ours has stopped developing. France now has more than three million people unemployed – it is the price we have to pay for our virtue.
We want to cut our CO2 emissions at any cost: it is a way of displaying our virtue for all to see. To achieve these reductions, we have significantly cut industrial activity and lost jobs. But at least we have achieved our aim of cutting CO2 emissions, haven’t we? The answer is laughable: apparently not. Global emissions of CO2 have continued to rise, including those generated by France in designing and manufacturing its own products, as the Cour des Comptes clearly states. Quite simply, manufacturing that is held to be environmentally damaging has been relocated. So, the same products are now being manufactured in countries that are far less respectful of the environment, and we have lost all the associated jobs. As Baudelaire says, Nature’s irony combines with our insanity.’
Chapter 3: The crusade is pointless.
Human beings cannot, in any event, change the climate. If we in France were to stop all industrial activity (let’s not talk about our intellectual activity, which ceased long ago), if we were to eradicate all trace of animal life, the composition of the atmosphere would not alter in any measurable, perceptible way. To explain this, let us make a comparison with the rotation of the planet: it is slowing down. To address that, we might be tempted to ask the entire population of China to run in an easterly direction. But, no matter how big China and its population are, this would have no measurable impact on the Earth’s rotation. French policy on CO2 emissions is particularly stupid, since we are one of the countries with the cleanest industrial sector.
International agreements on the subject began with the Kyoto Protocol, but the number of countries signing up to this agreement and its descendants are becoming fewer and fewer, now representing just 15% of emissions of greenhouse gases. This just goes to show the truth of the matter: we are fighting for a cause (reducing CO2 emissions) that serves absolutely no purpose, in which we alone believe, and which we can do nothing about. You would probably have to go quite a long way back in human history to find such a mad obsession.” [Boldface added]
After giving some of the scientific aspects, the white paper concludes with:
“In a democracy, there is an opposition, and this opposition has a right, in principle, to express its views: this is what distinguishes democracy from dictatorship. But when it comes to the questions about global warming that we are talking about here, the opposition – people who do not believe in global warming – have been told to shut up: no public debate, no contradictory discourse, no articles in scientific journals. They have simply been told that the case is proven, and it is time to take action.
In law, there is a fundamental principle known as the ‘adversarial principle.’ A case can be thrown out of court if the defense is not informed of every known element of the accusation. Even if twenty people have witnessed the abominable criminal commit his offense, if the defense has not had access to blood-sample analyses, the case will be thrown out. In the case of global warming, a number of bodies are telling us they have all the evidence but refuse to tell us what it is. The data have been processed, but how? Time series have been altered, but why? Some phenomena have been left out of the equation, but on what grounds? We do not know, and we are simply required to keep quiet and do what we are told. No second opinion is permitted.
It is on the debris of the fundamental principles of the law and of democracy that this White Paper has been written.”
In Summary, Climate Science as practiced by the UN IPCC and its collaborators and as taught in colleges and universities is not a physical science. Global Climate Models are contradicted by physical evidence gathered in the atmosphere where the greenhouse effect occurs. In general, those making broad claims of the dangers of global warming and associated events ignore the fact that in physical science nature is the final and ultimate judge. Instead, they advocate a form of a social and political movement that may be destructive to modern civilization and humanity. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and various TWTW topics since Feb 1, 2025.
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Solar Cycles and AMO? The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic characterized by long-term (multidecadal) changes in sea surface temperatures. It involves alternating periods of warmer and cooler surface temperatures in the Atlantic, with a period of around 60-70 years. Changes in the AMO immediately produce alarmist papers claiming that climate change will disrupt the Gulf Stream causing Europe to freeze. The Gulf Stream is part of the ocean conveyor belt that circulates water, heat, and nutrients around the globe.
In the 1700s, Benjamin Franklin measured the Gulf Stream during his Atlantic crossings and wrote about it.
Writing in WUWT, Andy May discusses variations in the AMO and a possible association between the AMO and the Bray Solar Cycle, also known as the Hallstatt cycle. These proposed solar cycles are of about 2400 to 2600 in duration and may influence Ice Age glaciations. May writes (figures omitted here):
“The Bray Solar cycle trend shown is dimensionless and not a proper trend to use in detrending the AMO region, but thermometers did not exist in 1520AD in the depths of the Little Ice Age or in 810BC at the end of the Greek Dark Age so there is little we can do about that. The main point is that the Bray climate and solar cycles are well established and because of them a natural long-term warming trend is expected today. There are other long solar cycles, such as the 1,000-year Eddy cycle, but the Bray cycle is the strongest. The Eddy cycle is increasing currently as well and may be a factor in the current longer-term warming.
The Trenberth & Shea assumption that all global warming today is human-caused and should be removed from the AMO index is unsubstantiated. It is just as likely that part of the longer-term warming trend is natural and due to increasing solar activity. Solar radiation can penetrate the ocean surface and warm the Atlantic to a depth of 100 meters or more. Greenhouse gas radiation cannot penetrate the ocean surface and causes much less warming of the ocean surface as a result. Thus, Watt per Watt, solar radiation is more effective, by a factor of 4 to 7 times according to Judith Lean, at warming the North Atlantic, a point often missed by the climate ‘consensus.’”
There is a great deal of natural variation we do not understand. For the UN IPCC and its collaborators to omit or ignore it is highly misleading. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Enough Is Enough? One of the laws used most abusively to restrict new construction projects is the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) under which all types of projects get stuck in endless studies and litigation. By an 8-0 decision, the Supreme Court overturned a D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decision that the Supreme Court considered was overly expansive in interpreting a reviewing agency’s compliance with NEPA. (Justice Gorsuch was recused.) Environmental groups and the mainstream media immediately claimed that environmental protections are reduced, but endless reviews are not protection, just obstruction. See Article # 1.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
It is time for voting on the Annual SEPP’s April Fools Award – the Jackson. The grand prize is a large lump of coal. Last year, the deserving winner of the lump of coal was the US National Science Teaching Association. In 2023, the Association banned the CO2 Coalition from its meeting which the Coalition members paid for and were approved because the CO2 Coalition exhibit pointed out that CO2 is essential for photosynthesis which is the food source of all complex life on Earth.
There are many strong candidates for this dubious honor including leaders of US scientific agencies who signed off on questionable reports on climate change. Get your votes in by June 29 with the reason why you recommend that person for the award. Send your vote to Ken@Sepp.org. If you wish, you will be anonymous. The award will be announced at the 43rd annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 5-6. The decision of the judges is final.
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Number of the Week: From 12% to 18% Last week’s Number of the Week noted that following the Iberian blackout Spain reduced electricity from PV solar from 27% to 20% of total electricity generation. This week, Leslie Eastman writes that Spain’s power grid operator Red Electrica increased generation by natural gas combined-cycle turbines (CCGT) from 12% to 18% of its power mix. See link under Questioning European Green.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
Radiation Transport in Clouds
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Shifting from Energy Scarcity to Energy Abundance
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, May 28, 2025
From: The battle against global warming: an absurd, costly and pointless crusade
By Cécile Haberstich, et al., White Paper drawn up by the Société de Calcul Mathématique SA (Mathematical Modelling Company, Corp.), September 2015
The Bray Solar Cycle and AMO
By Andy May, WUWT, May 29, 2025
Musings on the AMO
By Andy May, WUWT, May 26, 2025
In conclusion, I think it is very clear from the data presented in this post that Northern Hemispheric climatic changes drive global changes as shown in figures 1 and 2. It is also clear that the AMO and global average surface temperature patterns are closely related, with the AMO being the stronger pattern of the two. Gray, et al. show that the AMO 60-70-year AMO pattern extends into the past at least to 1567AD, which argues against any anthropogenic cause for the AMO or GMST [Global Mean Surface Temperature] patterns.
A New Era for American Science: The Gold Standard is Back
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 27, 2025
From the Executive Order: (A) the data, analyses, and conclusions associated with scientific and technological information produced or used by the agency that the agency reasonably assesses will have a clear and substantial effect on important public policies or important private sector decisions (influential scientific information), including data cited in peer-reviewed literature; and (B) the models and analyses (including, as applicable, the source code for such models) the agency used to generate such influential scientific information. Employees may not invoke exemption 5 to the Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S.C. 552(b)(5)) to prevent disclosure of such models unless authorized in writing to do so by the agency head following prior notice to the OSTP Director.
[SEPP Comment: After over 30 years, will we see the data supporting a number of EPA policies such as the linear no-threshold model and claims of the dangers of PM2.5? See link under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.]
New Analysis: IPCC’s Emissions-Based Climate Model Errors So Massive They Eliminate Predictive Validity
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 28, 2025
Link to paper: Are Climate Model Forecasts Useful for Policy Making?
Effect of Variable Choice on Reliability and Predictive Validity
By Kesten C. Green and Willie Soon, Science of Climate Change, Accepted May 17, 2025
Duane Gubler On Dengue Fever
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 26, 2025
Link to paper: Pandemic yellow fever: a potential threat to global health via travelers
By Duane J Gubler, Journal of Travel Medicine, Nov 1, 2018
The Moon’s Tidal Push
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 30, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Promoting her alternative idea: the “Moon’s Tidal Push.”]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Follow the science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
Link to: The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
By William Ripple, et al., BioScience, Dec 12, 2024
Article begins with: We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis.
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Canadian wildfire smoke to affect air quality, visibility in parts of US: What to know
By BJ Lutz, et al., The Hill, May 30, 2025
Link to study: Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States
By Beverly E. Law, et al., Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, May 2, 2025
From abstract: Here, we quantified the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to human mortality and economic burden from exposure to wildfire particulate matter at the county and state level across the contiguous US (2006 to 2020) by integrating climate projections, climate-wildfire models, wildfire smoke models, and emission and health impact modeling. Climate change contributed to approximately 15,000 wildfire particulate matter deaths over 15 years with interannual variability ranging from 130 (95% confidence interval: 64, 190) to 5100 (95% confidence interval: 2500, 7500) deaths and a cumulative economic burden of $160 billion.
[SEPP Comment: Where are the data showing that the modeling is validated? See, A New Era for American Science: The Gold Standard is Back (above).]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Not All That Sensitive
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, May 29, 2025
But for the purposes of this post, the mixture of phenomena driving this important oddity are not the focus. I’m simply looking at the actual response of the surface temperature to changes in absorbed surface radiation. Most places it increases … but not everywhere.
Something’s up with the clouds
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo
By Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Rackow, and Thomas Jung, AAAS Science, Dec 5, 2025
From Robson: Thus, stunningly, the thinning low cloud cover over the past 10 years has had as big an effect on the climate as 100 years of CO2 emissions. Surely it matters.
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
Especially as it contains forbidden thoughts like “Suffering in the hot weather? Spare a thought then for the population of London back in 1858, a year of sky-high temperatures and the Great Stink. That year, the London Standard reported temperatures of over 30C [86F] by the middle of June and the weather stayed hot for several weeks/ There was no air conditioning, no refrigeration, it was really hard to keep food fresh and there was no proper sewerage system, according to Museum of London curator Beverley Cook.”
[SEPP Comment: The Big Stink prompted the development of an adequate sewer system in London.]
The 97% Consensus Myth Debunker
An X thread by Chris Martz, Via WUWT, May 29, 2025
Trump’s Tariffs Might Be the Green Policy Nobody Saw Coming
By Melanie Collette, Real Clear Energy, May 29, 2025
Tariffs as Environmental Filters
By imposing tariffs on imports from countries with looser environmental regulations, Trump’s trade policy incentivizes companies to manufacture domestically, where environmental protections are stronger and enforcement is more robust.
Energy & Environmental Review: May 27, 2025
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, May 27, 2025
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Percent photosynthesis increases from 300ppm increases in CO2 for Barnyard grass
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
From the CO2Science archive
Problems in the Orthodoxy
NZ Abandon Net Zero Push
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 23, 2025
“New Zealand has abandoned its pursuit of net zero by revoking a ban on drilling for oil and gas.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
So it’s not a golden opportunity after all
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
To our surprise and self-interested relief, we read in the Globe & Mail that the Canada Pension Plan, to which we must turn for sustenance in our dotage unless people continue to support CDN, has deep-sixed its commitment to net-zero investing of other people’s savings lest they achieve net-zero or lower returns.
Changing Weather
Groundwater supplies are plunging across the Colorado River Basin: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, May 27, 2025
Link to study: Declining Freshwater Availability in the Colorado River Basin Threatens Sustainability of Its Critical Groundwater Supplies
By Karem Abdelmohsen, et al., Geophysical Research Letters, May 27, 2025
Does a Low-Snowpack Mean More Washington Wildfires?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 24, 2025
There is a problem with this claim: it is not true.
And there are good reasons why it is not true.
More attention should be given to our mismanagement of our forest lands, human ignition sources (e.g., lack of powerline maintenance), and the intrusion of flammable invasive species around our state (like cheatgrass, aka grassoline).
Deadliest US Tornado Days
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 28, 2025
Tornado deaths peaked in the US 100 years ago, in 1925
Saharan dust plume heading for Florida: Here’s what to know
By Rachel Tucker, The Hill, May 29, 2025
Changing Seas
New Study: Eastern China Sea Levels Were 2.4 Meters Higher Than Today 6000 Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 30, 2025
Link to paper: Holocene sea-level history from the southern Bohai Sea coast, China: Far-field GIA processes and an associated mid-Holocene sea-level highstand.
By Lizhu Tian, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, March 2025
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
622 billion tons of new ice
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 25, 2025
The surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has gained 622 billion tons of new ice and snow since September 1. This is the most in at least eight years and is far above the 1981-2010 average.
NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?
By Patrick Pester, Live Science, May 13, 2025
An abrupt change in Antarctica has caused the continent to gain ice. But this increase, documented in NASA satellite data, is a temporary anomaly rather than an indication that global warming has reversed, scientists say.
Swiss village buried in glacier collapse
By Tara Suter, The Hill, May 29, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Based on other reports, the village of Blatten had about 300 people. Everyone and all livestock had been evacuated. One person is missing.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Climate Change and Food Security: Minimal Impact?
Video of Interview with Karl Iver Dahl-Madsen, Global Warming Policy Foundation, May 23, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
New report reveals ‘rapidly emerging’ energy breakthrough transforming the future: ‘Key electricity source … even in winter’
By Katie Dupere, The Cool Down (TCD), May 28, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to report [?]: Europe on track to smash solar power output record in 2025
By Gavin Maguire, Reuters, April 24, 2025
[SEPP Comment: The TCD article ignored the Iberian Blackout that occurred four days after the Reuters article and 30 days before the TCD article?]
AEP Ignores The Green Elephant In The Room
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 25, 2025
AEP is getting ever more desperate to defend his green energy agenda.
In his latest piece in the Telegraph, he tries to blame the blackouts in Spain on the Socialist Government, while ignoring the green elephant in the room:
The Other Side Of The Pond
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 28, 2025
Sea surface temperatures are well below normal in the western North Atlantic, but the BBC says warm temperatures around the UK are due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Speaking of not following the science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
In a piece “RIP NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disasters/ The curious end to a troubled tabulation” Roger Pielke Jr. reminds us that, in fact, this iconic piece of misinformation was discontinued in large part because critics, most notably one Roger Pielke Jr., had tirelessly exposed (in the scientific literature no less) the sloppy statistical mishandling of the numbers to exaggerate problems that made the measure worse than useless.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
CNN Lies in its AMOC Collapse Story: Another Flip-Flop in a Long Line of Alarmist Claims
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, May 23, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
BBC’s Hurricane Scam
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2025
The BBC’s Executive Complaints Unit (ECU) has now lost all credibility and is no longer fit for purpose.
The ECU is of course part of the BBC, who are in effect marking their own homework. Until a genuinely independent complaints unit is set up, this farce will carry on.
BBC Weather Whiplash
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 27, 2025
The latest fake news from the BBC:
BBC Warming Arctic Claims Are Fake News
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 24, 2025
It’s all over part 67b
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
Never mind fighting climate change. Or adapting to it. The Washington Post surveys the cool spring and general lack of crisis around it and says it’s all over, we passed the tipping point and are all going to die. “The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere last year grew at the fastest rate in recorded history – a dramatic spike that scientists fear may indicate that Earth’s ecosystems are so stressed by warming they can no longer absorb much of the pollution humanity emits.” Never mind global greening. Plants are all dead etc. and so forth blah blah blah.
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
BBC Complaint Upheld
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2025
The BBC’s Executive Complaint Unit has now upheld my complaint about the above report, which presented computer models as factual.
Questioning European Green
Spain Boosts Natural Gas Capacity After Renewable Energy’s Failure Led to Historic Blackout
Meanwhile, the Iron Law of Electricity prevailed in Portugal’s recent election, as those who enjoy civilized living went to the polls and picked a “far-right” candidate.
By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, May 26, 2025
Kathryn Porter on British Thought Leaders
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2025
[SEPP Comment: Video on blackouts from renewable electricity asserting the UK would be far better off without net zero. For Iberia the blackout was from a fault. For the UK in January, the near blackout was from not enough electricity to meet demand – generating capacity.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Reliance on ‘Renewables’ Makes Widespread Blackout Nightmare More Likely
By Gary Abernathy, Real Clear Energy, May 27, 2025
Green Jobs
GM Switches Gears On New York EV Plant As GOP Nukes Dems’ Mandate
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, May 28, 2025
A General Motors (GM) plant in New York previously intended to build electric vehicle (EV) parts is pivoting to manufacture new V-8 engines as the GOP dismantles the Biden administration’s de facto EV mandate, according to Reuters.
[SEPP Comment: Will the New York State Government buy it to manufacture EV parts?]
Non-Green Jobs
Redundant Grangemouth Workers Told To Go Back To School
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 27, 2025
Funding Issues
Financials Shift from ‘Green’ Agenda to Greenbacks
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, May 28, 2025
The Political Games Continue
The “Big Beautiful Bill” — Climate And Energy Provisions
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 24, 2025
Link to: House GOP budget ‘worse than feared’ for clean energy: analysts
The bill’s “unworkable” provisions raise barriers for projects to qualify for clean energy credits before an accelerated 2028 expiration, an industry association said.
By Brian Martucci, Utility Dive, May 22, 2025
From Menton: Somewhat to my surprise, the BBB as passed by the House appears to repeal and rescind essentially all of the green energy handouts from the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act]. The IRA had added a collection of new sections to the Clean Air Act to create various massive funds for handouts to “greenhouse gas reduction” efforts.
From Utility Dive: The bill terminates most technology-neutral clean energy tax credits for projects placed in service after 2028 and those that begin construction more than 60 days after the bill’s passage. It also tightens restrictions on foreign entities’ involvement in projects, creating a “truly untenable” situation for developers, Jefferies analysts said Thursday. Nuclear projects have more time to qualify for the credit. [Boldface added;]
[SEPP Comment: The Utility Dive article did not identify “Jefferies analysts.” Apparently, they are advisors to House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.]
Miatta misleads Parliament
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, May 29, 2025
One example was a question from Labour MP Anneliese Dodds on the cost-effectiveness of the Energy Company Obligation, a scheme through which energy suppliers are compelled install insulation measures in their customers’ homes. In response, the minister, Miatta Fahnbulleh, explained that:
ECO4’s final impact assessment projected a positive net present value of £0.8 billion, underscoring the strong social impact and economic value of ECO.
Unfortunately, this is a shameless deception.
Litigation Issues
Supreme Court narrows scope of environmental reviews in Utah railroad case
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 29, 2025
A billion dollars worth of green groups join State suit to kill Trump’s no wind EO
By David Wojick, CFACT, May 27, 2025
Climate Attribution Lawfare Hits New Low with 2021 Heat Wave Lawsuit
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 30, 2025
In yet another theatrical act of lawfare against the fossil fuel industry, Misti Leon has launched a wrongful death lawsuit against seven oil and gas companies, alleging they were responsible for the tragic passing of her mother, Juliana Leon, during the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. The legal argument? That anthropogenic emissions from these companies directly caused the heatwave and therefore, her mother’s death.
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
New ETS-2 Climate Tax…Europe’s Green Raw Deal To Get Brutal Beginning 2027.
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 27, 2025
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
So they admit it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
Instead, another Heatmap article wails:
“Can Offshore Wind Survive the Tax Credit Purge? Empire Wind has been spared – but it may be one of the last of its kind in the U.S.”
And why? Because the dang stuff just doesn’t make dollars and sense:
The Big Beautiful Bill Must Stop Subsidizing Unreliable Power Grids
By Isaac Orr, Mitch Rolling, Real Clear Energy, May 28, 2025
Energy Issues – Non-US
Blackouts, what causes them?
By Lars Schernikau, His Blog, Accessed May 28, 2025
Energy economist
Cannes Film Festival Blackout Averted by Portable Generators
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 25, 2025
“The city of Cannes was hit by a five-hour power outage on Saturday morning ahead of the film festival’s awards ceremony, with electricity finally returning around 3:30 p.m. local time. Despite the technical challenges, a festival rep previously told Variety that the closing ceremony would “proceed as planned” after the Palais des Festivals “switched to an independent power supply.”
According to Franceinfo [French public broadcasting service], the cause of the outage may be foul play with two arson acts reported overnight and several power lines pylons were discovered to have been sawn off in the Alpes-Maritimes.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Bang! Price bomb sinks Transmission lines: Plan B says let’s pretend cars, home solar and batteries will save “Transition”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 27, 2025
But rejoice, in part, at least, the protests by farmers and communities are working
The industry is so rattled, they even asked Reneweconomy not to publicize their projects lest the people notice what they want to do:
Renewable Push Sends Aussie Electricity Prices Skyrocketing
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 26, 2025
Coal Australia puts the cost of coal energy at $0.05 – $0.07 / kWh – significantly lower than current Australian grid prices. Building new coal plants would alleviate the energy cost crisis, by introducing genuine price competition rather than the current absurd situation of governments paying billions of taxpayer dollars to try to keep the last man standing.
Energy Issues — US
Adios Socialized Energy, Welcome Free Market Energy
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, May 28, 2025
From: Adios, Green New Deal. Welcome, Free-Market Energy Independence
Trump Dismantles the Green Agenda, Embraces Capitalism, and Launches America’s New Energy Future.
By TIPP Insights Editorial Board, May 25, 2025
Exposing Alaska’s Green New Deal (Part II)
By Kassie Andrews, Master Resource, May 29, 2025
The fix is in regarding this conference, the plan being to showcase the Trump officials and then get down to Green New Deal business. Immediately following their remarks, a “micro networking break” on carbon management and nature based solutions: greenwashed language to push carbon credit schemes, land use restrictions, and bureaucratic control under the guise of sustainable development.
As for the rest of the conference? A green parade of panels on financing wind and solar, advancing carbon capture, integrating renewables, and sustainable aviation fuels. Meanwhile, just 75 minutes out of a three-day conference are dedicated to the only truly sustainable energy sector in Alaska, oil and gas- with coal not even mentioned once. [Boldface added]
Hurricane-Forced Winds on Mount Rainier as Strong Winds Descend the Eastern Slopes of the Cascades
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 29, 2025
You can see there is a problem with wind generation. The energy demand went up substantially during our warm period. Folks use plenty of energy for AC now, since far more homes in the region have air conditioning compared to a few years ago.
But during the warm periods in western Oregon and Washington, wind energy is nearly non-existent, and hydro generation has to spike.
We have a problem during peak energy demand, and this problem is getting worse.
Since solar is problematic around here because of our northern latitude and substantial cloudiness for half the year, and there is little chance for more hydro (in fact, some “environmentalists” want to tear down dams), how will the rapidly increasing energy demand be met?
At Oak Flat, We’re Putting U.S. National Security at Risk By Handing Our Land, Copper, and Water to China
By Camilla Simon, Real Clear Energy, May 28, 2025
With only a handful of copper refineries still operating in the United States, the copper mined from beneath Oak Flat will almost certainly be exported for processing. Most of Arizona’s copper ore shipments already pass through Nogales to Mexico’s Guaymas port before heading overseas. From there, the copper is typically smelted in China — which has a vast network of copper smelters and is the largest global producer of refined copper.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Billions In Green Projects Up In Smoke As Trump, GOP Slice Up Dems’ Climate Largesse
By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, May 29, 2025
Trump administration orders Michigan coal plant to remain open
By Sarah Fortinsky, The Hill, May 28, 2025
But the Department of Energy (DOE) warned of heightened risk of blackouts this summer and stressed the need to address “critical grid security issues” in the Midwest, especially “ahead of the high electricity demand expected this summer.”
Nuclear Energy and Fears
New world Energy order: Taiwan closes the last nuclear power plant, then days later, plans a referendum to reopen it
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 28, 2025
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Climate Change Weekly # 545 — GAO Questions Biden’s Offshore Wind Effort, Vindicates Critics
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Institute, May 30, 2025
Link to Report to Congressional Requesters: Offshore Wind Energy: Actions Needed to Address Gaps in Interior’s Oversight of Development
By Staff, US Government Accountability Office, April 2025
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
BP May Cancel Teesside Hydrogen Project
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 25, 2025
Now BP’s new team have returned to realityville and have come to the conclusion that nobody wants to replace fossil fuels with something much more expensive.
Southwest Virginia Offers a Playbook for American Energy Growth
By Will Morefield, Real Clear Energy, May 28, 2025
One of the most promising drivers of this growth is through coal mine methane capture, a fast-expanding segment of Virginia’s energy production. Historically treated as waste of which the vast majority is simply vented into the atmosphere, methane from coal mines is now being captured, refined, and integrated into existing natural gas infrastructure. In 2024, coal mine methane projects and the natural gas industry contributed $481.7 million in economic impact and supported over 1,100 jobs in Southwest Virginia.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
BP Cancels “Sustainable Jet Fuel” Project
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 15, 2025
Swedish Northvolt Pulls Plug On E-Car Plant…But Germans Keep Denying E-Car Reality
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 24, 2025
“HEMI V8 Roars Back”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 26, 2025
“Dodge Kills Electric Charger R/T—HEMI V8 Roars Back”
Electric cars halve in value after just two years [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2025
California Dreaming
Disruptive Desalination Technology Comes to California
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed May 27, 2025
None of this is to imply that the environmental impact of conventional desalination plants cannot be managed, which is a topic to revisit and emphasize. Primarily via conventional land-based reverse osmosis filtration, worldwide desalination capacity now exceeds 30 million acre feet per year, which represents about 1 percent of total worldwide freshwater diversions, and an impressive 7 percent of worldwide municipal water consumption – of course, not all of it is for municipal use. As we discuss in WC#83, desalination at scale is already cost-competitive with many water supply options that we take for granted.
Health, Energy, and Climate
#LookItUp: Indoor air pollution
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 28, 2025
Link to: Indoor Air Pollution
Indoor air pollution – caused by the burning of firewood, crop waste, and dung for cooking and heating – is a major health risk for the world’s poorest.
By: Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, Our World in Data, March 2024
From Robson: The horizontal axis shows the share of the population with access to clean fuels for cooking, mainly electricity, natural gas, alcohol and propane. And again, households without access to such fuels have to rely on burning wood, dung, coal. straw and other solid fuels that release smoke and soot inside the house. Which brings us to the vertical axis showing the number of deaths from inhaling such gunk per 100,000 population.
Even low levels of lead exposure may worsen academic performance: Study
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, May 28, 2025
Link to paper: Early-Life Low Lead Levels and Academic Achievement in Childhood and Adolescence
By George L. Wehby, Environmental Health, May 28, 2025
From the study’s Main Outcome Measure: Regression models estimated the association between lead levels and math and reading scores, controlling for sociodemographic, child and maternal health, and school characteristics.
From The Hill: Ultimately, the researchers found that a 1-unit increase in lead levels in the lower range was connected to lower math test scores by an average of -0.47 points and in reading by -0.38 points.
In the higher range, the 1-unit increase was associated with lower math test scores by an average of -0.52 points and in reading by -0.56 points.
[SEPP Comment: Not even a full percentage point? How do you separate the claimed results from statistical noise?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Climate Change Is Impacting People’s Ability to Have Healthy Pregnancies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2025
ARTICLES
1. The Supreme Court Gives Permission to Build Under NEPA
The Justices issue a unanimous ruling against 3,600-page environmental reviews and endless litigation.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, May 29, 2025
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“When is enough enough? Before federal regulators approved an 88-mile railroad project in Utah, they issued an environmental study running 3,600 pages. Yet a court blocked the project, saying the analysis didn’t sufficiently analyze ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ effects. On Thursday the Supreme Court reversed unanimously.
All kinds of building projects get stuck in endless reviews and litigation under the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act. But NEPA is supposed to let federal regulators ‘weigh environmental consequences as the agency reasonably sees fit,’ Justice Brett Kavanaugh writes for the Court in Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County. ‘NEPA is a procedural cross-check, not a substantive roadblock. The goal of the law is to inform agency decision making, not to paralyze it.’
The railroad in this case is a classic example of the problem. The proposal is to link the oil-rich Uinta Basin to the rest of the country. The federal Surface Transportation Board approved the rail line in 2021, after a lengthy environmental review of the potential effects on air pollution, wetlands, wildlife, and more. Four years later, construction is still on hold.
Oil from the Uinta Basin currently goes out by truck, and a rail link could lead to more drilling, as the environmental study noted. But such future development is ‘speculative,’ the Surface Transportation Board said, and anyway its job is to regulate railroads, not oil wells. Ditto for the idea that the rail line could increase oil refining on the Gulf Coast. When the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked the project, however, it said those effects were ‘reasonably foreseeable’ and should have been analyzed.
The Supreme Court faults that decision. ‘The central principle of judicial review in NEPA cases is deference,’ Justice Kavanaugh says. ‘Under NEPA, an agency’s only obligation is to prepare an adequate report.’ The regulators overseeing the proposed project, he adds, are ‘better equipped to assess what facts are relevant to the agency’s own decision than a court is.’
Justice Kavanaugh adds that nothing in NEPA requires the Surface Transportation Board to study ‘upstream or downstream projects separate in time or place from the 88-mile railroad line’s construction and operation.’ Different projects are, well, different. Also, agencies don’t need to ‘analyze the effects of projects over which they do not exercise regulatory authority.’
This is a rebuke of judicial micromanaging. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in a concurring opinion for the Court’s three liberals, gets to the same outcome by different reasoning. ‘Under NEPA, agencies must consider the environmental impacts for which their decisions would be responsible,’ she says. The rail board ‘correctly determined’ that its approval process for the Utah line couldn’t lawfully consider upstream oil rigs and downstream refineries.”
The editorial states why it wished that the Supreme Court gave clearer guidance to lower courts then concludes with:
“‘That in turn means fewer and more expensive railroads, airports, wind turbines, transmission lines, dams, housing developments, highways, bridges, subways, stadiums, arenas, data centers, and the like,’ Justice Kavanaugh says. ‘And that also means fewer jobs, as new projects become difficult to finance and build in a timely fashion.’ This ruling sounds like the Supreme Court’s permission to build.”
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The crusade is costly
The crusade is pointless
Tilting at windmills
Ed Miliband is a middle-aged gentleman from the People’s Republic of Islington, in North London. After a failed stint as Labour party leader he decides to take up his lance and sword to defend the climate-change faith, nature and to destroy the economy.
During his second expedition as Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero, Ed Miliband becomes more of a liability than an asset, stealing from and hurting baffled and justifiably angry citizens while acting out against what he perceives as threats to his faith in the clean energy transition and his mission to lead the world a la Pied Piper to the New Socialist Utopia.
Given the state of political flux in the UK I would suggest Ed is on borrowed time. After Tony Blair’s et tu Brute moment – dagger in hand, death to net zero – and Reform’s success at the ballot box, Ed Miliband admitted his seat was at risk, he then said…
“I had this conversation in the pub last Friday night with this guy, and the conversation went like this…
https://parliamentnews.co.uk/ed-miliband-says-reform-could-take-his-seat
Miliband went to a pub? They really do think we are that stupid.
Nature: “The Earth is cooler now than four and a half billion years ago, notwithstanding four and a half billion years of continuous sunlight. The Earth is currently losing 44 TW, called “cooling”. Adding CO2 to air does not make it hotter.”
Fanatical GHE believers: “The Earth is getting hotter. Fossil fuels are evil. Repent or die!”
I’m with Nature on this one.
There is a major dust storm blowing off the Sahara across the Atlantic. Will this suppress the hurricane season?