In a recent Slate article, titled “I Used to Hope Humans Were Headed for Extinction. Now I Know That Fantasy Allows Us the Easy Way Out” author Lizzie Wade argues that humanity is on the path to extinction due to climate change, suggesting that a 4°C rise in global temperatures could spell the end for modern civilization. This claim is not just alarmist; it’s absurdly wrong. The available evidence today suggests that humanity is more resilient and capable of adapting to changing climates than ever before, bolstered by centuries of technological and medical advancements.
Contrary to the doomsday narrative pushed by Slate, humanity is currently experiencing a golden age. Consider the metrics: global life expectancy has more than doubled over the past century, food production is at an all-time high, and access to clean water, healthcare, and education has dramatically improved. According to the World Bank, life expectancy worldwide has risen from 52 years in 1960 to over 73 years in 2023. This progress has occurred alongside the very fossil-fuel-driven industrialization that Slate blames for the impending apocalypse.
Historically, colder periods such as the Little Ice Age (1300-1850) were marked by widespread famine, crop failures, and societal decline. Meanwhile, warmer periods like the Medieval Warm Period (900-1300) saw agricultural expansion, population growth, and the rise of major civilizations. If warmer temperatures were inherently catastrophic, how do we explain the prosperity that characterized these warmer eras? The reality is that warmth fosters life, while cold has historically brought more suffering and death. Consider the graph below. It clearly shows as we have advanced technologically while at the same time slightly warming over the past century, human death risks from climate have approached zero.
The Slate article leans heavily on the claim that a 4°C rise in temperatures will trigger societal collapse. But where does this number come from? It is based on speculative climate models that have repeatedly overestimated warming trends. A review of historical climate model performance by Climate at a Glance shows that these models routinely predict more warming than actually occurs.
For instance, the CMIP6 climate models — the latest generation of climate projections used by the IPCC — have exaggerated warming rates by as much as 50% when compared to observed satellite data. Yet, Slate presents these exaggerated projections as certainties, despite decades of model inaccuracies.
Also, the assumption that modern humans will respond to warming temperatures the way primitive Neanderthals did is absurd. Unlike our prehistoric ancestors, we have advanced agricultural techniques, desalination plants, irrigation systems, air conditioning, and rapid transportation networks. In short, we have unprecedented adaptive capacity.
The Slate article implies that human extinction is a realistic consequence of climate change, yet it fails to account for humanity’s unparalleled ability to adapt and innovate. Today’s society has access to technologies that allow us to thrive in diverse climates — from the scorching deserts of Dubai to the frigid Arctic outposts.
Consider agriculture. In response to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, American farmers adopted advanced irrigation techniques, soil conservation methods, and drought-resistant crops. Today, genetic engineering is producing crops that can withstand extreme temperatures, droughts, and pests. The International Food Policy Research Institute has documented how agricultural output continues to increase despite climate variability, driven by technological advancements.
Furthermore, adaptation is not just theoretical — it is already happening. Coastal cities like Miami are implementing robust flood control measures, while nations like Israel are leading the world in desalination to secure fresh water despite arid conditions. Suggesting that humanity is incapable of surviving a mere 4°C temperature rise is a gross underestimation of our capabilities.
Let’s address the extinction claim directly. The idea that a 4°C rise will lead to human extinction is not just speculative; it is hyperbolic fearmongering. It is a classic case of invoking a worst-case scenario while ignoring countervailing evidence. The IPCC itself does not project human extinction under any of its warming scenarios, including the so-called “high-end” scenarios.
Moreover, the article’s attempt to draw parallels between modern humans and Neanderthals is a false equivalence. Neanderthals were poorly adapted to environmental shifts, lacking modern infrastructure, global trade networks, and medical care. We are not at the mercy of the elements as they were. We possess the technological prowess to mitigate and adapt to changing climates.
It is also worth noting that previous apocalyptic climate predictions have failed to materialize. In the 1970s, we were warned of a new ice age. In the 1980s, we were told acid rain would decimate forests. In the 1990s, it was the ozone hole that was going to fry us all with UV rays. Today, it’s the 4°C rise that is supposedly going to lead to human extinction. Yet here we are — healthier, wealthier, and more resilient than ever.
The Slate article is not a scientific analysis; it is a speculative opinion piece masquerading as informed commentary. The narrative of impending extinction is a convenient way to grab attention, but it is not based on credible evidence. By promoting worst-case scenarios as inevitable outcomes, Slate is engaging in classic climate fearmongering — a tactic that does more to sell clicks (aka clickbait) than to inform the public about actual risks and realistic solutions.
If Slate is genuinely concerned about the future of humanity, it would serve its readers better by discussing practical, evidence-based adaptation strategies rather than promoting end-of-the-world narratives. Fear sells, but facts matter. And the fact is, humanity is not on the brink of extinction. We are on the brink of another century of technological advancement and human flourishing — if we don’t let alarmist rhetoric distract us from reality.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Originally posted at ClimateREALISM
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So, a quick look shows she is a fiction writer who also “covers” archeology and climate for so called Science magazine. Looking at a few of her articles she is comically wrong on a regular basis, so of course the Pulitzer Center has a glowing write-up about her. Typical.
Extinction has such a negative connotation.
Death is just nature’s way of telling you to slow down.
Government has its say also, e.g., MAiD in Canada.
Ever since I can remember (and I’m 87 now) environmentalists have been predicting dire threats to humanity, the assumption in each case being that humanity would just stand by without adapting.
And they keep doing it!
The left likes to assume that everyone else is as stupid as they are.
Yep. Reading the Mark Lynas book ‘Six Degrees’ some years back I was astounded by his assertion that Alexandria in Egypt would be inundated as sea levels rose by over half a metre by 2050. As if the people who managed to build the pyramids and the great Lighthouse of Alexandria in ancient times would not be able to construct sea defences even if his assumption of the rise was anywhere near correct !
And the egyptians were fully aware of water level fluctuations. As i recall the Nile level gauges are some of the oldest we know of. This was of course important because of the implications for agricultural producention..
The End is Nye
🤣
The sheriff is nigh!
Yet they never mention the soon to come 90,000 year glaciation where all of Canada and most US northern states will be under a mile of ice.
“if we don’t let alarmist rhetoric distract us from reality.”
That phrase from the last sentence brushes up against the real threat. The climate alarmism, the pending apocalypse, is driving insane political and economic decisions that can, if allowed to continue, lead to the end of civilization and human extinction.
It is not here yet, but many of the “green” politicians are on the verge of genocide. The Population Bomb seems to be the instruction manual, although there are others.
The only way One World Order can succeed is with a much reduced population.
“You will have nothing and you will be happy.”
— WEF
The reliability of the IPCC-GCM predictions, projections, and extrapolations decreases after each iteration step.
The GCM models only actually project future average temperatures. All the climate alarmism is based on speculative imagining of what might result from an assumed warming based on assumed emissions pathways with varying probabilities of actual occurrence. This is not science, it’s science fiction. I’m about as worried over the climate change consequences as I am about a Martian invasion.
The reliability of GCM predictions, projections, and extrapolation is indistinguishable from ZERO….
… at any time step.
And that unparalleled ability to adapt and innovate is enabled by abundant energy resources, which are largely fossil-fueled.
When the temperatures rise, there is migration pressure to the north.
When the temperatures fall, there is a migration pressure to the south.
Source: The so-called “snow birds.”
Climate alarmism is headed for extinction, very soon.
When the next big scare comes along, but not before that.
I almost miss the nuclear doomsday people. Given the proliferation of nukes into unstable third-world countries, I say the nuclear threat is much bigger now then during the Cold War.
Apocalypses are a religious genre of literature. The sooner people realize that the climate cult is a religious cult. The sooner the cults will be marginalized and laughed out of polite society.
Remember that genus home evolved in equatorial Africa. Warmer weather is not that big a problem.
What’s more likely, the temperatures will climb 4C from here, or the temperatures will cool 2C from here?
The last time we were in this position, back in the 1930’s, when temperatures were equivalent to today’s warmth, the temperatures cooled by over 2.0C.
If I were guessing, going by history, we are not going to see a 4C increase in temperatures any time soon.
CO2 levels were increasing all during the 2.0C cooling from the 1930’s to the 1970’s. CO2 had no effect on this temperature change.
A 4C rise would merely return the world to the temperatures enjoyed during the Holocene Optimum, during which civilization was first developed.
Why [Some] Humanity Is Doomed
In two words: Net Zero.
“Estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from volcanoes may have been significantly underestimated, according to new research by The University of Manchester.”
https://www.manchester.ac.uk/about/news/new-technology-reveals-volcanic-co2-emissions-could-be-three-time-higher-than-anticipated/
Add in all the thousands of newly discovered ocean bottom volcanoes and its clear that man is only a bit part player.
It is interesting to note the more CO2 dissolves in water under greater pressure and lower temperature. If this is true (I do not have a submersible) then there is a lot of CO2 in the ocean not accounted for. It also means heat from volcanoes will cause an upwelling bringing the higher concentration to the surface where it will try to reach equilibrium with the air.
The magnitude of this has effect yet to be determined.
“suggesting that a 4°C rise in global temperatures could spell the end for modern civilization.”
And 20 million Canadians chuckled.
Being Scottish, I can only dream of a rise of 4 degrees.
Natural rewilding of the Caledonian Forest up to and beyond 700 metres. What’s not to like?
Trees in Scotland? I’d thought you cut them all down.
Gotta make way for them wind turbines, y’know !
That graph should say WEATHER related death risks, not CLIMATE related.
Story tip; Federal government lifts stop work order on Empire Wind
Let the locals fight the offshore wind blight. This from the feds: “Energy Dominance is the foundation of America’s economic and national security. I am encouraged by Governor Hochul’s comments about her willingness to move forward on critical pipeline capacity. Americans who live in New York and New England would see significant economic benefits and lower utility costs from increased access to reliable, affordable, clean American natural gas.”– Secretary Doug Burgum, ~ 14 hours ago
So we trade whale health for natural gas pipelines.
I’m against it.
Lizzie Wade wins awards for writing this schist. Why should she stop?
She will if/when she can no longer generate a revenue stream from it.
I see that some enthusiasts are predicting that the Arctic Ocean will boil dry in five years.
Mr Watts neglected The Population Bomb and Club of Rome panic predictions of famine and resource depletion from the late 1960’s and early 1970’s.
So many completely wrong predictions of various pending “existential threats” to humanity over the last, oh, four hundred years or so—i.e., since the Industrial Revolution— that wonders why these two deserve any special mention.
/sarc
As I recall, the Club of Rome first got notice in the 1950s. They determined the best scare tactics would involve environmentalism.
mankind is doomed because of lower than replacement birth rate, not ‘climate change”
climate change is just a pretext for further impoverishing and controlling the dwindling, remaining population
The current rate of creation of new (and competing) AI bots offsets any decline in the global birth rate of humans. 😜
Furthermore, unlike humans, AI bots have the potential to “live” forever.
In fact, some scientists and philosophers have argued that humans are nothing more than a transitory step in the evolution of “intelligence” on plant Earth, culminating with such being contained in disembodied energy concentrations . . . several steps beyond the Borg, don’t cha know!
/sarc
Lower birthrate, according to an ad hoc, limited sampling of blog posts is due to climate apocalypse terror.
Ah – that would explain why the population of the Earth is dropping!
/sarc
Just an excellent summary slam-down of the AGW/CAGW alarmists by Anthony!
I hope that big red “ABSURD” stamp stands at the ready to apply to other organizations and authors as badly misinformed as Slate and Lizzie Wade.
Very nice Anthony, Lizzie is a crackpot, it is a shame we even have to deal with people like that.
First of all, there is no basis for a 4° C warming scare. Second, the climate change cult is a death wish cult.