The Week That Was: 2024 10-19 (October 19, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” – Voltaire [H/t Doomberg]
Number of the Week: ZERO
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week discusses the failure of the IPCC to be clear in its definitions and writings regarding greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide emissions, leading many organizations to misrepresent what is realistically occurring. Howard “Cork” Hayden presents the three external processes that influence Earth’s planetary heat balance. TWTW tries to clarify a misunderstanding regarding the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer. Also discussed is a report published by The European Geosciences Union that will anger alarmists. The false claim of “clean energy” is exposed. Thoughts on Big Tech going nuclear are presented. Another unrealistic report by the EIA is presented as well as the closing of shipping lanes in the Arctic, and a “new crisis” on the old problem of potable water.
*********************
Confusion: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is less than clear and precise in its definitions and writings concerning greenhouse gas emissions, principally carbon dioxide emissions, causing global warming, now called climate change. Yet, no one asserts that CO2 emissions cause global cooling. Political groups, such as World Weather Attribution (WWA) and Covering Climate Now, capitalize on this lack of clarity by making claims that appear to be scientific but are actually absurd. WWA is out of Imperial College, London, and is an example of the general degradation of academic institutions that have become politicized.
The concept that climate change is unusual is contradicted by Earth’s history. Based on vegetation zones, the Köppen climate classification divides climates into five (now six) main climate groups, with each group being divided based on patterns of seasonal precipitation and temperature. Wladimir Köppen continued to modify his classification system along with Rudolf Geiger to develop what is called today the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system.
Anyone familiar with Earth’s changing vegetation can attest, Earth’s climate has been changing for millions of years and governments cannot stop the change. Through enforced regulations, governments can reduce human influence, but not stop climate change. Humans adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere has the important influence of increasing photosynthesis, which is the essential food source of almost all life on Earth beyond chemo-synthesizing bacteria. So, the quest for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is anti-life.
Further, as shown in the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer as well as others, beyond 180 parts per million volume (ppmv), the minimum amount need by green plants, the influence of CO2 on temperatures is diminishing significantly. Adding or reducing the CO2 concentrations which is about 420 ppmv by 100 ppmv does little to increase or reduce its influence on temperatures. Schemes to capture carbon dioxide are pointless exercises in squandering money.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer and Carbon Schemes.
********************
Internal and External Processes: AMO physicist Howard “Cork” Hayden clarifies the confusion regarding the influence of greenhouse gases on Earth’s planetary heat balance. He separates internal processes from external processes. He states that the heat balance of Earth is dependent on THREE quantities (external processes): 1. Amount of sunlight at orbit; 2. Amount of reflected sunlight; and 3. Amount of outgoing infrared (heat radiation). The greenhouse effect influences the amount of outgoing infrared radiation. Hayden writes:
“As far as I can tell, there may be 10,000 PhD dissertations already written or waiting to be written about rain, hail, snow, glaciers, hurricanes, typhoons, cyclonic storms, melting ice, sea level evaporation from the oceans, melting snow, melting ice, the movement of air across the globe, the influence of continental drift on weather patterns, and so forth. These subjects and their kin involve internal energy exchanges, and they describe how weather patterns move around the globe.
At equilibrium, the heat that goes into the atmosphere must equal the heat leaving the atmosphere. Disequilibrium cannot exist long, as the total amount of energy “trapped” in the atmosphere is equivalent to one day’s energy passing through it.
At equilibrium, the amount of heat absorbed by the surface equals the amount of heat released.
External Processes
By contrast, the heat balance of the earth as a whole—positive if we receive more heat from the sun than we radiate away as infrared (IR), and negative if the outgoing IR exceeds absorbed sunlight—depends on precisely three quantities.
First, the amount of sunlight at our orbit is greatest when we are closest to the sun (in early January) and least when we are farthest from the sun in early July. Since we know the orbit, we can calculate the solar intensity at any other place in the orbit, providing that the sun produces constant output. For climate, the year-round average is what matters. Any increase or decrease in year-round average sunlight can result in a positive or negative heat balance. For the heat balance diagram shown, the average solar flux is presently 340 +/- 0.1 W/m2.
The second quantity of interest is the amount of sunlight reflected. Presently, the globe reflects about 30% of the sunlight (albedo = 0.3), but that quantity can change with cloudiness, snow and ice cover, and amounts of aerosols in the atmosphere.
The third quantity that helps determine the heat balance of the planet is the amount of infrared (IR) that leaves the planet. It is important that the only way for the planet to shed heat is though IR emission to space. The present value is 240 +/- 2 W/m2.
How Internal Processes Affect External Ones
Internal processes certainly affect weather, but they affect the heat balance of the planet only by affecting either the albedo (reflectivity) of the planet or the amount of IR emitted to space.
Climate scientists have taken to heart the Year Without a Summer (1816) following the 10 April 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, which ejected an estimated 37 km3 (8.9 cu mi) of volcanic dust into the atmosphere, thereby decreasing the amount of absorbed sunlight. Climate models therefore predict an increase in albedo—meaning less absorbed solar energy—due to imagined scenarios in which humans cause particulate matter to be inserted into the atmosphere. The increase in albedo is regarded as something to “partially counteract” the imagined warming effects of dreaded CO2 emissions.
The surface of the earth emits a smooth spectrum of infrared radiation (IR) (a plot of intensity versus number of wavelengths per centimeter), but the planet as a whole emits a very jagged spectrum of IR to outer space. (For this discussion, the shapes of the curves, not the numbers, are the important matters.) The change is due to the spectral properties of the IR-active gases in the atmosphere. They are lovingly called greenhouse gases.” [The figures known as the Planck curve, which is based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law, and the jagged curve based on the Schwarzschild equation are in the link. The difference is the greenhouse effect. Italics in original change to boldface] See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
A Misunderstanding: Jennifer Marohasy discusses a point that has bothered her ever since she attended a lecture by Will Happer in Australia. According to what she wrote: Happer did not attribute the source of the radiant energy loss from Earth at different wavelengths. As stated above, the source is using the Schwarzschild equation and the data to make the calculations comes from the HITRAN database.
HITRAN is an acronym for high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database. HITRAN is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters that a variety of computer codes use to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere.
This is the most precise database existing for understanding high-resolution transmission and molecular absorption of electromagnetic energy (heat) emitted by Earth. Marohasy may have a misunderstanding of Earth’s atmosphere. It is not uniformly thick. It is far thicker at the equator and thins to the polar regions. Further, convection plays a big role in the transfer of heat in the troposphere as well as in the oceans.
Figure 10 (page 29) of the “The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere” shows how closely the modeled calculations agree with observations. The caption to the figure states, in part:
“Vertical intensities at the top of the atmosphere observed with a Michaelson interferometer in a satellite, and modeled with radiation transfer theory for the Sahara desert, Mediterranean and Antarctica. …Radiative forcing is negative over wintertime Antarctica since the relatively warm greenhouse gases in the troposphere mostly CO2, O3, and H2O, radiate more flux to space than the cold ice surface at a temperature of T = 190 K could radiate through a transparent atmosphere.” [The vertical structure of an atmosphere is the run of pressure, temperature, density, and chemical composition with distance from the center of the planet.]
The match between the calculated and the observed radiative forcing is impressive. Note the difference in vertical scales between the Sahara and Antarctica. The summary of the paper states [citations omitted]:
Greenhouse gases are responsible for the most striking feature of Earth’s atmosphere, a lower troposphere and an upper stratosphere. In the troposphere, below the tropopause boundary, a large fraction of the energy flux from the solar heated surface is carried by convection, and not by thermal radiation. Convection maintains average temperature lapse rates in the troposphere that are close to adiabatic. In the stratosphere, most of the upward heat flux is carried by radiation. Greenhouse gases warm the surface because they increase the “thermal resistance” of the atmosphere to the vertical flow of energy from the solar-heated surface to space. The larger the thermal resistance between the surface and the emission altitude, the larger the temperature difference needed to drive the solar energy absorbed by the surface back to space. Without the thermal resistance induced by greenhouse gases, Earth’s surface would be much colder and life as we know it would not be possible.
Increasing carbon dioxide will cause a small additional surface warming. It is difficult to calculate exactly how much, but our best estimate is that it is about 1 C for every doubling of CO2 concentration, when all feedbacks are correctly accounted for. Alarming predictions of dangerous warming require large positive feedbacks. The most commonly invoked feedback is an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the upper troposphere. But most climate models have predicted much more warming than has been observed, so there is no observational support for strong positive feedbacks. Indeed, most feedbacks in nature are negative as expressed by Le Chatelier’s Principle: When any system at equilibrium for a long period of time is subjected to a change in concentration, temperature, volume or pressure, the system changes to a new equilibrium, and this change partly counteracts the applied change. [Boldface italics in original]
We have barely touched atmospheric dynamics, perhaps the most interesting part of the grand drama of weather and climate. We are all familiar with manifestations of atmospheric 30 dynamics: warm fronts, cold fronts, droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornados etc. Equally fascinating ocean dynamics, like the El Nino cycles of the tropical Pacific Ocean, also contribute to weather and climate. Earth’s atmosphere works like an extremely complicated engine that transforms heat from the Sun into the work that drives the winds, the weather and ocean dynamics. Greenhouse gases are the heat exchanger which allows the atmospheric heat engine to dump waste heat into cold space.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer and Seeking a Common Ground.
********************
Into the Fire: Charles Rotter of WUWT brings up that the European Geosciences Union, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics published a paper titled “The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.” The abstract states
Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.29 ± 0.04 K from 2022 to 2023. Such a large interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record, with a previous instance occurring in 1976–1977. However, why such large global warming spikes occur is unknown, and the rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show that climate models that are subject only to internal variability can generate such spikes, but they are an uncommon occurrence (p = 1.6 % ± 0.1 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño in the simulations, as occurred in nature in 1976–1977 and 2022–2023, such spikes become much more common (p = 10.3 % ± 0.4 %). Furthermore, we find that nearly all simulated spikes (p = 88.5 % ± 0.3 %) are associated with El Niño occurring that year. Thus, our results underscore the importance of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in driving the occurrence of global warming spikes such as the one in 2023, without needing to invoke anthropogenic forcing, such as changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or aerosols, as an explanation. [Boldface added.]
The paper is sure to be the subject of rage by groups specializing in politicizing climate science such as World Weather Attribution (WWA), a subject in last week’s TWTW and Covering Climate Now. Regarding the latter group, Paul Homewood writes:
“I have been tracking Covering Climate Now for some time now.
They were set up to influence journalism worldwide, in order to push the alarmist agenda by, basically, telling lies:
‘As Chelsea Harvey reported in Politico’s E&E News following the CCNow press briefing, “Nations participating in the Paris climate agreement are not required by the United Nations to report the carbon emissions from their armies and aircraft or warships and weapons.” The US military, with hundreds of overseas bases and a budget larger than the military budgets of the next nine countries combined, is the world’s single largest annual carbon emitter, Crawford calculates.
Journalism alone cannot stop either war or climate change. But our reporting can make clear how these two instruments of violence reinforce one another and, perhaps, how they might be defused.’
In short, they could not give a toss about all of the deaths and suffering in these wars. Their only real concern is carbon emissions!” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
Clean Energy? Many big myths have been generated by promoters of wind and solar. These include that they can provide affordable, reliable electricity and that they represent “clean energy.” In an essay with photos Meleni Aldridge of the Alliance for Natural Health questions the claim the wind and solar are “clean energy” by discussing the environmental costs of lithium mining. Lithium in industry is primarily used to create rechargeable batteries for electronics like smartphones, laptops, electric vehicles, and grid storage systems. With the net zero fad the demand for lithium is increasing dramatically.
To her credit, Aldridge also writes:
“To give them their due, the mining industry is beginning to address these concerns by embracing technological advancements aimed at reducing environmental damage. Companies are exploring innovations like water recycling, more efficient extraction techniques, and the use of artificial intelligence to minimize the ecological footprint of mining operations.
Lithium brine operations are also looking into direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies, which could potentially reduce water consumption by extracting lithium directly from the brine without the need for large evaporation ponds. This method, still in its experimental phase, could cut down water use and environmental degradation.” See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
Big Tech Goes Nuclear: For years Hi-Tech or Big Tech has been the darling of the Environmental Industry, claiming it will go “carbon free” or “net zero” in a few years. Promoters of wind and solar have claimed contracts with Big Tech to buy the electricity they generate, duping the public into believing that wind and solar are sustainable, capable of providing reliable power 24-7. They are not. As the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) states:
Intermittent renewable resource generators include wind and solar energy power plants, which generate electricity only when wind and solar energy resources are available. When these generators are operating, they tend to reduce the amount of electricity required from other generators to supply the electric power grid. [Boldface italics in original]
Beginning with Microsoft signing the deal to re-open the unharmed unit # 1 of the Three Mile Island power complex, the green facade of Big Tech may be lifted. Writing for Real Clear Energy, Bonner Cohen of CFACT expressed it well in “Microsoft, Three Mile Island Deal Delivers a Blow to Wind and Solar Power.” Conner begins with:
“A shuttered nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania, long associated with the nation’s worst accident involving atomic energy, is riding to the rescue of tech giant Microsoft, a company desperately in need of reliable energy for its growing network of AI-driven data centers.
Under an unprecedented deal announced Sept. 20 by the decommissioned nuclear plant’s owner, Constellation Energy, Microsoft would be the sole purchaser of Three Mile Island’s electricity, once the plant has restarted in 2028. Microsoft will receive its electricity from a reactor (shut down since 2019) that was not damaged in the 1979 Three Mile Island partial meltdown. The supply contract between Constellation Energy and Microsoft will run for 20 years and will require that the reactor undergo safety upgrades and receive regulatory approval before going into effect.
The voracious energy demands of data centers, driven by AI, … and elaborate cooling systems, are upending energy markets and pose new challenges to the nation’s already shaky electric grid. Dominating the data center sector are Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon Web Services, all of which plan to expand the number of data centers, which currently stands at 2,700 nationwide.
In keeping with their commitments to decarbonize their energy use, the Big Four have solemnly pledged to reach zero-emissions goals within a few years, but now find themselves in need of power – and lots of it – if they are to stay globally competitive with China in AI.
Longtime supporters of renewable energy, the Big Four are the nation’s largest purchasers of wind and solar power. But wind and solar power are intermittent, weather-dependent sources of electricity, and what data centers require is power 24/7/365. Microsoft’s Three Mile Island venture shows the company recognizes this and is acting accordingly.”
The Environmental Industry could call this a classic display of corporate greed. Cohen also writes.
“Tilting at windmills – in this case wind turbines and solar panels – has been a preoccupation of the Biden White House and the climate cartel since Biden took office. Now, even its Big Tech allies are wising up to wind and solar power’s shortcomings. They recognize a simple truth: A full-time economy cannot run on part-time energy.” [Boldface added]
Who knows? Perhaps even Washington may begin to realize that you cannot run a full-time civilization on part-time energy. Doubt that those who forced the closure of operating nuclear plants in California, New York and elsewhere will comment. For Cohen’s comments and others see links under Nuclear Energy and Fears.
********************
Tilting With Windmills: The once respected International Energy Agency (IEA) came out with its World Energy Outlook that ignores the unreliability of wind and solar and no modern civilization in the world operates on wind, solar, and storage. Yet the press release claims:
“A new energy system needs to be built to last, the WEO-2024 emphasizes, one that prioritizes security, resilience and flexibility, and ensures that benefits of the new energy economy are shared and inclusive.”
For this exercise on the lack of critical thinking about reality see links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
********************
Arctic Ice: Ron Clutz has an update on shipping in the Arctic. He states:
The previous post below sounded the alarm about ice halting Arctic shipping early. Now the two choke points are blocked nine days later. Chukchi sea is blocking the entrance to Bering sea. Laptev is blocking traffic into European Barents and Kara seas.
Unlike the last couple of summers when Russia’s Arctic coastal waterways were fully clear of sea ice, residual winter ice persisted in the eastern section this year. This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas.
Maybe Al Gore’s prophecy of an ice-free Arctic will come true next year. See link under Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
********************
New Crisis: Anther unaccountable international bureaucracy is claiming a new crisis. The new crisis is potable water which has long been a concern for civilizations. The Romans built their famous aqueducts to solve the problem for major cities. Yet, according to press reports:
The world’s water cycle is out of balance “for the first time in human history,” according to a new report.
Human history apparently does not include the Romans or many other civilizations that suffered droughts. The claims prompt TWTW to ask: Was the water cycle “in balance” during the last major glaciation when today’s grain belts were cold, dusty and barren? See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy.
********************
Number of the Week: ZERO. On Saturday October 19 at 16:11:14 the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center reported: “There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time” and “There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time.” For the Atlantic “Tropical Storm Nadine, Makes Landfall in Belize” (Maximum sustained winds 60 mph) and Tropical storms warnings in effect for Southeast Bahamas and Northeastern provinces of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. In short, zero hurricane activity during this part of the hurricane season. Probably Zero is the number of mass media outlets reporting this lack of activity. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?atlc
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
First, they came for the climate skeptics
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
Clearly the author of this legislation, like the drafters of the Oregon lawsuit and many others, do not believe in free speech. They do not think competing claims should be settled by debate (or fail to be). They want to hammer dissent out of existence. To deny the state’s position on anything will be as forbidden, and as dangerous, as in the old Soviet Bloc. This approach enjoys considerable support from our political, intellectual and cultural elite (including with specific regard to hurricanes). They really don’t believe in the principles behind free speech anymore, and as a result, they don’t believe in practical legal protections for it. Which means they won’t stop with us.
You are next.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Internal and External Processes
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, The Energy Advocate, October 2024
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Internal and External Processes.docx
True Skepticism in the Face of a 2023 Global Warming Spike Study
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 12, 2024
Link to paper: The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
By Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, et al., EGU Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Oct 10, 2024
Human-Steered Hurricane Helene?
By Staff, Physicians for Civil Defense, Oct 12, 2024
EIKE Dismisses Spectacular Climate Claims About Hurricane Milton Made By Stefan Rahmstorf
By the European Institute for Climate and Energy, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 12, 2024
Did global warming make the heavy precipitation in Mid Europe in September 2024 more likely?
By Frank Bosse, Climate Etc, Oct 12, 2024
Link to: Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe
By Staff, World Weather Attribution (WWA), Sep 25, 2024
From Bosse: Conclusion
After a closer look, neither the trend analysis nor the model-observation comparison supports the conclusions of the attribution study.
The issue of unsound extreme weather event attribution studies is not limited to extreme precipitation. As this recent article by Roger Pielke Jr explains, attribution studies for all types of extreme weather event are in general highly dubious, and appear to be undertaken more for “political” than for scientific purposes.
Florida Gov. DeSantis Schools Media Reporters Hyping Flawed Alarmists Claims that Hurricane Milton was Made Worse by “Human Caused Global Warming”
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 16, 2024
What a breath of fresh air from a competent political leader addressing climate science reality instead of politically contrived climate alarmism speculation and hype.
Hurricane facts vs. climate fiction
By Brian Sussman, ICECAP, Oct 10, 2024
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing-the-hype/hurricane_facts_vs_climate_fiction/
Because the “Sunshine State” is a sitting duck. It’s a 500-mile long, 160-mile-wide peninsula extending into the warm waters of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico with 1,146 miles of coastline and an average elevation of a mere 100-feet. Given that the average hurricane is about 300-miles-wide, the Florida peninsula is a prime target for potential disaster. As a result, during this 2024 season, of the nine hurricanes formed to date, four have hit the United States with two terribly striking Florida.
Covering Climate Now
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2024
Lithium fields — out of sight, out of mind
By Meleni Aldridge, Alliance for Natural Health, Oct 17, 2024 [H/t Sherri Lange]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Lower oil and natural gas prices, higher electricity demand expected over next five years: IEA
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 16, 2024
World Energy Outlook 2024
By Staff, IEA, October 2024
Press Release: Geopolitical tensions are laying bare fragilities in the global energy system, reinforcing need for faster expansion of clean energy
By Staff, IEA , Oct 16, 2024
World Energy Outlook 2024: Executive Summary
By Staff, IEA, October 2024
[SEPP Comment: Fails to distinguish between nameplate capacity and actual generation.]
Global Energy and Climate Model
Scenario analysis of future energy trends
This report is part of World Energy Outlook 2024
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet
By Claudie Beaulieu, et al. Nature, Communications Earth & Environment, Oct 14, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
From abstract: The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. Here we investigate whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective.
Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
By Matthew W. Jones, et al., AAAS Science, Oct 18, 2024 [H/t Carbon Brief]
[SEPP Comment: CO2 emissions causing forest fires? Yet, Earth is greening!]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Energy notes from the edge: LNG Canada may impact prices unexpectedly; Global LNG trade soars past naysayers on energy security priorities
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 17, 2024
And don’t even get me started on data center demand, which is getting more crazy by the hour it seems. The biggest AI players have now all raced to lock up existing or nearly-existing nuclear power (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) because it is the only emissions-free 24/7 baseload power available. Everyone else will be scrambling for whatever 24/7 baseload they can get, and, as with the newly rediscovered importance of energy security, these firms will place AI development over any qualms about what sort of energy they are sourcing.
#CheerfulCharts #11: Long-term hurricane intensity in Florida
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
Fossil fuels are making hurricanes like Hurricanes Helene and Milton better, not worse
Fossil fuels have created unprecedented safety from extreme weather—and the recent hurricanes would’ve been far worse without them
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Oct 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Storms getting more extreme or benign? The physical evidence is not compelling. However, thanks to fossil fuels, humans can be more resilient.]
Attributing motives: Roger Pielke Jr. on the tactical science of weather attribution
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Discussing Pielke exposing the false science of the political group World Weather Attribution (WWA).]
There is no climate emergency
Who trusts the science?
By Everett Piper, Washington Times, Oct 11, 2024 [H/t William Readdy]
New Study: Sea Levels Were 3 Meters Higher Than Today 5000 Years Ago Along Japan’s Coasts
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 17, 2024
Link to paper: Understanding paleo-earthquakes in the Kuril Trench based on Late-Holocene tsunami deposits in the distal region from wave sources, northern Hidaka, Hokkaido, Japan
By Ryo Nakanishi, et al., PLOS One, Apr 17, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Going from extreme events such as tsunami deposits in northern Japan to general sea level rise or fall is pushing the evidence.]
Energy & Environmental Review: October 14, 2024
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Oct 14, 2024
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Red Alder dry weight increase under extra CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
From the CO2Science.org archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Indonesia Dumps Climate Politics in Favor of Energy Security
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Oct 15, 2024
If Norway, a country with a superior economy and high standard of living, can still prioritize its economic self-interest by extracting its oil, why should Indonesia be criticized for utilizing its coal reserves?
Seeking a Common Ground
Six Ideologies Threatening Civilization: The Unified Assault on Progress and Freedom
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 16, 2024
Link to: What Unifies the Enemies of Civilization?
Socialism, environmentalism, scientism, relativism, dogmatism, and doomerism all have one thing in common.
By Arjun Khemani and Logan Chipkin, Human Progress, Oct 11, 2024
Buy Woke, Go Broke: The Failure of ESG Investing
By Tilak Doshi, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 13, 2024
Almost two centuries later, [Adam] Smith’s most famous acolyte Milton Friedman was just as clear: “There is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.”
Average Temperatures and Heat Movement (Part 2)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Oct 14, 2024
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Why an age of energy rationing is looming over Britain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2024
Measurement Issues — Surface
The Future of Climate Forecasting (Part 1)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Oct 17, 2024
I also gave-up, because I lost confident in the integrity of the actual temperature measurements being recorded by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Previously I put a lot of work into ensuring that we inputted unhomogenised data. Then, when I realized the extent to which the new platinum resistance probes could be calibrated to basically measure up or down relative to a mercury thermometer and in fact, they were being recalibrated to measure hotter – well I gave up, in tears. My focus then became getting the parallel data to better understand the relationship between the two different types of temperature measuring.
Changing Weather
National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Last update Sat, 19 Oct 2024 16:11:14 UTC
There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time.
There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time.
[SEPP Comment: The Pacific, the forgotten ocean?]
What the return of ‘a weak La Nina’ could mean for the coming winter — and the next hurricane season
By David Knowles, Yahoo New, Oct 17, 2024 [H/t SJ Cvrk]
“If you look at a chart of global average surface temperatures over time, you’ll see a steady rise due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, but then you see ups and downs every few years,” said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the NOAA. “The ups are El Niño and the downs are La Niña.”
[SEPP Comment: Question the statement by McPhaden.]
Thanks, CBS News, For Presenting the Truth About When the Deadliest Hurricanes in U.S. History Occurred
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Oct 14, 2024
Link to: Top 10 deadliest hurricanes in U.S. history
By Gina Martinez, CBS News, Oct 9, 2024
Sahara sees first flood in half a century
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2024
1963: The Big Freeze
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2024
Video “Just too much snow.”
Changing Seas
A pink flood
By Craig Medric, His Blog, Oct 15, 2024 [H/t Ken Snider]
Link to paper: Adapting management of Pacific salmon to a warming and more crowded ocean
By Brendan Connors, Gregory T Ruggerone, James R Irvine, ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oct 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Are hatcheries affecting salmon populations? How much of the variability in the catch is related to natural causes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is not well understood?]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice Extent in September
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 12, 2024
Ignore their misleading black trend line. It is now more apparent than ever that following the large ice loss in 2007, sea ice extent has remained remarkably stable.
Arctic Ice In Perspective 2024
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Oct 13, 2024
Arctic Shipping Update: NSR Flash Freezing
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Oct 16, 2024
The previous post below sounded the alarm about ice halting Arctic shipping early. Now the two choke points are blocked nine days later. Chukchi sea is blocking entrance to Bering sea. Laptev is blocking traffic into European Barents and Kara seas.
Unlike the last couple of summers when Russia’s Arctic coastal waterways were fully clear of sea ice, residual winter ice persisted in the eastern section this year. This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas.
[SEPP Comment: The Arctic Ocean will be ice free next year?]
So, about that Arctic ice… ksssh!
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
As you know, and if you don’t NASA and others desperately want you to, Arctic ice is vanishing. Or if not, it’s getting younger and thinner, which is good if you’re a person but bad if you’re an ice pack, evidently. So, if you were, oh, say, the captain of a ship attempting to squeeze in another voyage or two on Russia’s Northern Sea Route despite the dangerous growing presence of a bunch of hard cold white stuff in the water closing the passage well ahead of schedule, be assured, it can’t be ice. It just looks like it.
Brown Bears Lived In The 73°N Siberian Arctic 3500 Years Ago…Today Their Northern Boundary Is 65°N
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 14, 2024
Link to paper: First description of a mummified Middle Holocene brown bear from the New Siberian Islands, Russia
By Maksim Yu, BioOne, April 29, 2024
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Warming Climate Powers Canadian Agriculture
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Oct 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The Museum of Civilizations in Quebec City has a display showing the decline of Iroquois villages along the St. Lawrence River even before the French began to settle there. The reason given was “climate change.” Actually, it was a cooling wiping out the plantings of the “Three Sisters Garden,” corn, beans, and squash, which was the responsibility of the Iroquois women.]
England sees second worst harvest on record as fears grow for 2025
By Staff, FarmingUK, Oct 10, 2024 [H/t Valentina Zharkova]
“We’re getting into a situation where autumn planting is becoming unviable due to flooding and spring planting is risky because of drought. It is causing a lot of nervousness and uncertainty.” — Colin Chappell, an arable farmer in Lincolnshire.
Lowering Standards
Scientists Say
On the reputational collapse of a critically important institution.
By Doomberg, Oct 16, 2024
Time to Cool the Heated Climate Rhetoric on Hurricanes
By Larrry Bell, Newsmax, Oct 16, 2024
Early on, during the Oct. 1 vice-presidential candidate debate between Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, with flood waters still high in parts of the southeast from Hurricane Helene, CBS News anchor (and debate moderator) Norah O’Donnell said, “Scientists say climate change makes these hurricanes larger, stronger, and more deadly because of the historic rainfall.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Terms such as “scientists say” indicate as much physical evidence as terms such as “rumors say.”]
Our Understanding of How to Modulate Climate Change is Ballooning
By Henry I. Miller and Tom Hafer, ACSH, Oct 15, 2024
The Earth’s climate will continue to warm, resulting in greater frequency and intensity of devastating weather events. Many of the supposed remedies proposed by politicians and activists are futile and monumentally expensive. Large arrays of balloons to reflect the sun’s rays might be the answer.
[SEPP Comment: ACSH should stay out of the climate science field that it doesn’t understand.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Frivolous Climate Diversion in the Face of Real Disaster
By Vijay Jayarj, CO2 Coalition, Oct 15, 2024
Monty Python’s Flying Climate Alarmism
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
Not to mention the New York Times writer who breathlessly asserted that “The United States has pumped the most carbon dioxide into the atmosphere of any country since the Industrial Revolution, and that makes the next president’s energy choices enormously consequential” as if anyone elected in 2024 could do a single thing about Rutherford B. Hayes’ climate policy.
Forbes is Right That Weather Isn’t Getting More Extreme, Wrong About Other Climate Claims
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Oct 17, 2024
Wrong, The Hill, Climate Change Is Not Causing Emigration
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 18, 2024
New Antarctic Greening Study Willfully Blind to CO2 Fertilization
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 14, 2024
Link to paper: Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites
By Thomas P. Roland, et al., Nature Geoscience, Oct 4, 2024
[SEPP Comment: As Rotter points out, among other problems the authors of the paper confuse photosynthesis with temperatures.]
It’s an emergency! Green plants spreading at alarming rate in Antarctica
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 17, 2024
Nobody mentions the 91 volcanoes they discovered there seven years ago which line up with the warmest parts of Antarctica. We sit on a ball of lava, and there is an edge of a crystal plate under there. But really, it’s more likely the warming is caused by your Ford fiesta and those beef kebabs…
The green stagnation
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
[New York Times reporter] P.S. Gelles made his claim in announcing a new Times feature “The Climate Fix”. But while we’re all for practical solutions, we do think newspapers do neither their readers nor themselves a service by reporting on things that aren’t happening.
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Is Climate Change Increasing the Economic Cost of Disasters?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2024
A nation that had to deal with the Miami hurricane or Katrina can surely cope with a Milton.
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
Oh, and speaking of echo chambers, Blacklock’s Reporter Informs us that “Cabinet proposed renaming inflation as ‘heat-flation’ to persuade Canadians to associate the rising cost of living with climate change, documents show.” Sheer genius… if you’re a zealot. As Blacklock’s added drily, “The idea polled badly…. ‘Asked whether they had heard either of these terms before, none indicated they had,’” according to the ponderously named Continuous Qualitative Data Collection Of Canadians’ Views.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Hurricanes, Climate Change, and Statistical Sleight-of-Hand
By Jonathan Lesser, Real Clear Energy, Oct 15, 2024
Sixty years ago, a journalist named Darrell Huff wrote a short, humorous book titled “How to Lie with Statistics,” which presented a litany of statistical techniques that could be – and still are – used to distort reality. He may not have foreseen attribution science, but he would surely smile at its use today.
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Record numbers are not buying the narrative: Nearly 70% of Americans don’t trust The Media
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 17, 2024
Link to press release: Americans’ Trust in Media Remains at Trend Low
Trust in political and civic institutions highest for local and state governments, lowest for media and Congress
By Megan Brenan, Gallup, Oct 14, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
The first meeting of the Committee of Climate Safety
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 16, 2024
There’s a famous line about the French Revolution, not from Edmund Burke or Thomas Carlyle, that “like Saturn, the Revolution devours its children”. (It’s actually from the moderate Calvinist Jacques Mallet du Pan.) And it has happened many times since Robespierre himself was guillotined, as radicals too readily identify sinister enemies everywhere, but especially within their own ranks. Now that the inherently impossible 1.5°C warming target looks set to be breached in the near future the true climate zealots are already identifying the counterrevolutionary traitors to be dealt with in the coming reign of terror: climate scientists themselves for failing to be sufficiently hysterical. Including, of all people, Zeke Hausfather.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Climate change psychological distress is associated with increased collective climate action in the U.S.
By Matthew T. Ballew, et al., Nature NPJ Climate Action, Oct 13, 2024 [H/t Climate Brief]
The Abstract begins with: The mental health impacts of climate change are increasingly documented;
[SEPP Comment: Although weather and seasonal change may have a mental impact, what is the impact of a warming world in a temperate region?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Global water cycle off balance for ‘first time in human history’: Report
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 17, 2024
Link to: The Economics of Water: Valuing the Hydrological Cycle as a Global Common Good.
By Staff, Global Commission on the Economics of Water, OPEC, 2024
The Folly of Electrifying America’s Military Forces
By E. Calvin Beisner, American Thinker, Oct 16, 2024
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin said in 2021, “We face all kinds of threats in our line of work, but few of them truly deserve to be called existential. The climate crisis does.”
[SEPP Comment: How far would a M1 A2 Abrams tank get on one charge? How many tons would the battery weigh?]
Fight submarines with solar panels? Former Defence Chief more afraid of bad weather than China
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 12, 2024
Maybe it’s lucky Australia didn’t have to fight a war when Chris Barrie was the Australian Defence Force Chief.
Admiral Barrie says, “security threats from climate change dwarfed those posed by China”.
Questioning European Green
A new dawn for Net Zero policy?
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Oct 16, 2024
Campaign group Net Zero Watch has welcomed Robert Jenrick’s declaration that the binding targets in the Climate Change Act will have to be revoked.
[SEPP Comment: Too late?]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
“Green” Energy: It’s Just a Bribe
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 16, 2024
In the mid-19th century, Claude-Frédéric Bastiat, a political economist, wrote:
“Government is the great fiction through which everyone endeavors to live at the expense of everyone else. Everyone is, more or less, for profiting by the labors of others. No one would dare to express such a sentiment; he even hides it from himself.
The Frenchman added:
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”
A ‘Clean Energy Economy’ Cannot Be a Thriving Economy
By Jon Sanders, Real Clear Energy, Oct 17, 2024
Greens Declare War on Growing Your Own Greens
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 14, 2024
Link to paper: Comparing the carbon footprints of urban and conventional agriculture
Jason K. Hawes, et al, Nature Cities, Jan 22, 2024
Morrison: Many green extremists seem to take the view that anything humans do, including growing their own veg, is causing existential harm to the planet. What they really hate, some may conclude, are humans themselves. Treble bongs all round.
Litigation Issues
Norway court rejects environmental injunction against oil and gas fields
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 16, 2024
Supreme Court declines to block Biden’s climate rule for power plants — for now
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 16, 2024
In a statement accompanying the decision, Justice Brett Kavanaugh said that while the rule’s challengers “have shown a strong likelihood of success on the merits,” they are “unlikely to suffer irreparable harm” before a lower court can rule on the matter.
Specifically, he noted that they don’t need to start making changes to make their power plants more climate friendly until June 2025. But he said parties could appeal a future decision from the D.C. Circuit, where the case against the Biden administration’s regulation is currently playing out.
[SEPP Comment: Probably the litigation issue was not “ripe” for judication, premature.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Large polluters cut greenhouse gas emissions 4 percent last year: EPA data
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 15, 2024
These large polluters, which include power plants, belong to a subset known as “large stationary sources” and represent about half of the country’s total emissions, the EPA said Tuesday.
The agency said that this sector emitted 1.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2023, and that last year’s decline follows a longer-term emissions drop linked to a shift in fuel source from coal to gas.
[SEPP Comment: Calling carbon dioxide a pollutant for its warming effect is scientifically absurd.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Western Households Sacrifice As Asians Splurge on Coal
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Markets, Oct 3, 2024
British Blackout System Mobilized After Wind Dropped on a Cold Day
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 14, 2024
Miliband Fiddles While Britain Faces Blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2024
Climate colonialism starves Africa of energy
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Oct 17, 2024
A Really Big Week for African Energy
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Oct 15, 2024
No wonder Ayuk’s [a Cameroonian attorney] “drill, baby, drill” approach has become the rallying cry for making African energy poverty history.
Energy Issues – Australia
Wind vs. Ecology in Australia (Nick Cater reports)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 18, 2024
Future anthropologists will write textbooks about the religious fervour that led early-21st-century humans to believe they could harvest energy directly from the wind and the sun. They will be puzzled as to why they didn’t adopt nuclear technology; just as cultural historians of Mesoamerica are curious why the Aztecs never discovered the wheel.
Energy Issues — US
We Clearly Must Continue to Support Fossil Fuels
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Oct 16, 2024
How AI Will Impact Energy Industry Margins Over the Next 5 Years
By ZeroHedge, Oil Price.com, Oct 14, 2024
Risking Alaska’s Energy Exceptionalism (RPS looming)
By Kassie Andrews, WUWT, Oct 15, 2024
The Dark Side of the Electric Grid
By Peter Bodde, Real Clear Energy, Oct 16, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The reason why utilities do not oppose political actions promoting unreliable wind and solar: they profit from such political ignorance. And the public suffers.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden administration announces $2 billion in funds to strengthen electric grid
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 18, 2024
The projects range from installing new power lines to adding protections for infrastructure against wildfires in fire-prone regions. They would create an estimated 300 miles’ worth of new power lines and 7.5 gigawatts of new electrical capacity, officials said.
[SEPP Comment: How much of the electrical capacity is reliable?]
Return of King Coal?
Power Demand from Data Centers Keeping Coal-Fired Plants Online
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Oct 16, 2024
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Microsoft, Three Mile Island Deal Delivers a Blow to Wind and Solar Power
By Bonner Russell Cohen, Real Clear Energy, Oct 14, 2024
Addressing Six Common Concerns of the Nuclear Naysayers
By Nick Loris & Robert G. Eccles, Real Clear Energy, Oct 14, 2024
There is little to no ground for automatically dismissing nuclear power as a clean, reliable, carbon emissions-free, baseline energy source out of safety or public health concerns. There are grounds for cynicism regarding the future economic viability of nuclear, particularly when big promises were made but not kept by industry and policymakers alike about a “nuclear renaissance.” Too often, however, that cynicism undervalues the technological progress, private sector innovations, improved learning curves, and policy fixes that will undoubtedly improve the financial outlook for nuclear energy.
Tech Titans’ Quiet Exodus From the Grid
By Bill Ponton, Real Clear Energy, Oct 16, 2024
[SEPP Comment: As Big Tech profits from AI, the consumer is left holding the bag of high costs from unreliable wind and solar.]
Google, Amazon, give up on national grid, ignore renewables, and buy their own nuclear plants
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2024
Soon every tech billionaire will have their own nuclear power plant
Feel the heat. Only weeks ago, these same billionaires were raving about renewable energy, downranking and censoring the skeptics… now they are doing exactly what we said all along.
A “New Nuclear Posture” for the US is vital in a hungry world
By Ronald Stein, Oliver Hemmers, and Steve Curtis, Amecia Outloud News, Oct 14, 2024
Google signs deal to use small modular nuclear reactors to power AI data centers
By Julia Shapero, The Hill, Oct 15, 2024
Google buys world’s first private mini-nuclear reactors
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2024
Link to press release: Google and Kairos Power Partner to Deploy 500 MW of Clean Electricity Generation
By Staff, Kairos Power, Oct 14, 2024
Plants will be sited in relevant service territories to supply clean electricity to Google data centers, with the first deployment by 2030 to support Google’s 24/7 carbon-free energy and net zero goals.
Link to: Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approves Construction Permit for Hermes Demonstration Reactor
Press Release, Kairos Power, Dec 12, 2023
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has voted to issue a construction permit to Kairos Power for the Hermes demonstration reactor to be built at the Heritage Center Industrial Park in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
The Hermes series will help mitigate technology, licensing, supply chain, and construction risk to achieve cost certainty for Kairos Power’s fluoride salt-cooled, high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR) technology. Lessons learned will be integrated into the company’s future commercial deployments targeted in the early 2030s.
Google Bets Big on Nuclear: Inks Deal with Kairos Power for 500-MW SMR Fleet to Power Data Centers
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 14, 2024
In a deal that marks the first corporate agreement to deploy multiple small modular reactors (SMRs) in the U.S., Kairos Power and Google have signed a Master Plant Development Agreement to facilitate the development of a 500-MW fleet of molten salt nuclear reactors by 2035 to power Google’s data centers. The first reactor is expected to be operational by 2030.
Amazon signs deals to build, invest in small modular nuclear reactors
By Julia Shapero, The Hill, Oct 16, 2024
Amazon Backs Massive Nuclear SMR Deployment: 5 GW with X-Energy, Agreements With Energy Northwest, Dominion
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 16, 2024
Why Big Tech is turning to nuclear to power its energy-intensive AI ambitions
By Ryan Browne, CNBC, Oct 16, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The summary misses the key point: The electricity must be reliable!]
Big Tech turns to nuclear energy to power AI boom
By Julia Shapero and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 16, 2024
DOE Finalizes $1.52B Palisades Loan for First-Ever U.S. Nuclear Plant Recommissioning
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 30, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Lake Placid Solar Hurricane Milton damage
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 13, 2024
Looks like tornado damage, but can’t find a news story about it ~cr.
[SEPP Comment: A clear path of destruction through the industrial solar panels.]
Sumitomo, CEP Solar Form JV for Renewable Energy in Virginia
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Oct 16, 2024
The companies said the JV will provide support for the state’s energy supply, in part to help with power demand from Virginia’s numerous data centers.
[SEPP Comment: At midnight?]
No Wind Power? Easy, Build Some More Wind Farms!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 16, 2024
Gas prices may be volatile, but renewables will leave us with permanently higher prices.
[SEPP Comment: Since pressure systems are up to 1500 miles (2400 km) wide, all of the UK can be affected at one time.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The Hydrogen Bust Is Here
Nine H2 projects in Europe & US have gone up in smoke since August. Harvard analysis savages Bill Gates’ claim that “cheap, green hydrogen” will be the Swiss army knife of decarbonization.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Oct 15, 2024
Link to press release: Green hydrogen far pricier than projected
Press Release, David Trilling, Harvard Gazette, Oct 8, 2024
Link to paper: Carbon abatement costs of green hydrogen across end-use sectors
By Roxana T. Shafiee and ∙ Daniel P. Schrag Joule, Oct 8, 2024
“This does not mean that hydrogen won’t play a role in a low-carbon energy future,” said co-author Daniel Schrag, Sturgis Hooper Professor of Geology and Professor of Public Policy at Harvard. “There are logistical and economic challenges with every possible solution — including biofuels and electrification. But at this early stage of decarbonization, it is important that we invest in a broad range of strategies, and not bet our future on a single approach that remains very, very expensive.”
The H Stands For Hype
The New York Times calls hydrogen a “renewable energy source” and other silliness about using an element that’s “a thermodynamic obscenity”
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Free Access, May 9, 2024
Biden administration proposes to boost geothermal energy projects by cutting early-stage environmental reviews
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 18, 2024
The Biden administration’s press release particularly noted that the proposal could bolster production in swing-state Nevada, home to some of the largest geothermal potential in the country.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Fires, Pollution and Slavery: EVs’ Ugly Truth
By Vijay Jayaraj, Townhall, Oct 12, 2024
On August 25, an internet user uploaded a notice from the owner of Huigang Building in Yinzhou District, Ningbo City, restricting the parking of electric vehicles and making separate provisions for EVs due to safety concerns.
The fact that China, a leader in the EV market, is taking such drastic measures should raise alarms for the global EV industry. This is a clear acknowledgment that lithium battery fires pose a significant risk, one that cannot be ignored simply because EVs are touted as environmentally friendly.
Engineers recommend reducing EV battery size to cut lithium demand
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A different form of rationing.]
Electric car battery maker’s value slashed by 85pc
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2024
Carbon Schemes
Billions in Federal Funding Earmarked for Power Plant CCS Projects: Here’s a Snapshot
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 2, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Washington demonstrating its ignorance of the greenhouse effect and photosynthesis.]
Earthquakes, Leakage, Expense, Death by Asphyxiation – Is There No Beginning to the Advantages of Carbon Capture?
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 11, 2024
Has Carbon Capture’s Time Come?
By Bob Chase, Real Clear Energy, Oct 15, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Useful of oil and gas recovery, but a waste of resources elsewhere.]
California Dreaming
‘Political Posturing’: Newsom Signs Law Empowering Bureaucrats To Meddle Even More With Oil Refiners
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Oct 14, 2024
Would Suing the Bureaucracy Bring Us More Water?
By Edward Ring, What’s Current? Accessed Oct 17, 2024
Health, Energy, and Climate
Breaking News: Sunburn and Asphalt Don’t Mix – Another Study States the Obvious
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 12, 2024
Link to paper: Daily heat and mortality among people experiencing homelessness in 2 urban US counties, 2015-2022
By Zihan Lin, et al., American Journal of Epidemiology, June 6, 2024
European Trainee Doctors to Have Fake Malaria Climate Myths Added to Their Studies
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 17, 2024
Link to: The decline of malaria in Finland – the impact of the vector and social variables
By Lena Hulden & Larry Hulden, Malaria Journal, May 7, 2009
To analyze the long-term trend malaria statistics were collected from 1750–2008. During that time, malaria frequency decreased from about 20,000 – 50,000 per 1,000,000 people to less than 1 per 1,000,000 people. To assess the cause of the decline, a correlation analysis was performed between malaria frequency per million people and temperature data, animal husbandry, consolidation of land by redistribution and household size.
Conclusion
The indigenous malaria in Finland faded out evenly in the whole country during 200 years with limited or no counter-measures or medication. It appears that malaria in Finland was basically a social disease and that malaria trends were strongly linked to changes in human behavior. Decreasing household size caused fewer interactions between families and accordingly decreasing recolonization possibilities for Plasmodium. The permanent drop of the household size was the precondition for a permanent eradication of malaria.
Environmental Industry
Coastal cities have a hidden vulnerability to storm-surge and tidal flooding − entirely caused by humans
By Philip Orton and Stefan Talke, The Conversation, Oct 16, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Fast-forward to today, and in estuaries such as New York Harbor, San Francisco Bay and Miami’s Biscayne Bay – areas where rivers meet the sea – 80% to 90% of this habitat has been built over.
[SEPP Comment: Abandon all coastal cities now?]
Other Scientific News
Making Spaceflight Great Again.: SpaceX catches a Super Heavy Booster Rocket
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 14, 2024
Video
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
“a globally renowned scholar”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 16, 2024
Michael Mann appointed vice provost for climate science, policy, and action at Penn
“Climate change may be coming for your house”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 14, 2024
Jeff Bezos [who owns the Washington Post] that claims fossil fuels are going to drown Florida, as he purchases hundreds of millions of dollars of oceanfront property in Miami.
Is the Top of Mount Rainier Shrinking Due to Global Warming?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 12, 2024
The Seattle Times had a startling revelation on its front-page last Sunday: the top of Mount Rainier is shrinking due to global warming.
The Seattle Times Climate Lab repeatedly publishes climate-related articles that are incorrect. Articles that hype or misinform about climate change. The Seattle Times Climate Lab is supported by outside money, groups with a climate advocacy agenda.
Our region deserves factual, rigorous journalism on this important subject. Climate Lab is failing to provide it.
What Happened To The Express’ Monster Hurricane?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 12, 2024
[SEPP Comment: According to The Express newspaper Hurricane Kirk will batter Britain.]
ARTICLES
1. Phillips 66 to Close Los Angeles Refinery in Fourth Quarter of 2025
Company said the unit’s long-term sustainability is uncertain
By Connor Hart, WSJ, Updated Oct. 16, 2024
TWTW Summary: The article begins with:
“Phillips 66 will close a refinery near Los Angeles in the fourth quarter of 2025, citing that its long-term sustainability is uncertain and affected by market dynamics.
Mark Lashier, chief executive of the Houston-based oil refiner, on Wednesday said the company is working with land-development firms Catellus Development and Deca to evaluate the future use of the sites, which encompass about 650 acres in Wilmington, Calif., and Carson, Calif.
About 600 employees and 300 contractors currently operate the Los Angeles-area refinery. Phillips 66 said it would work to support these workers through the transition.
Moving forward, Phillips 66 will work with the state of California to supply fuel markets and meet ongoing consumer demand.
Phillips 66 said it would supply the state’s fuel market with gasoline from sources inside and outside its refining network, as well as with renewable diesel and aviation fuels from its Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The closure comes after California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday signed a bill aimed at combating rising gas prices, as well as after the oil refiner received pressure from an activist investor to focus operations and limit costs.
The bill Newsom signed into law, Assembly Bill X2-1, gives a state regulatory agency, the California Energy Commission, the authority to set inventory levels for refiners, in addition to authorizing the regulator to approve scheduled maintenance times.
Oil refiners and trade groups opposed the bill.
After issuing a letter in opposition to lawmakers, Andy Walz, Chevron president of Downstream, Midstream and Chemicals last week told Sacramento, Calif.-based KCRA 3 TV that the oil company may stop investing in the state if the bill was passed. Several labor groups representing refinery workers also issued a letter in opposition to the bill, claiming the proposal dismisses ‘the workforce with direct knowledge and insight into refinery operations and maintenance’ in favor of ‘lawyers and market economists who lack refinery experience.’”
**********************
2. San Francisco vs. the Biden EPA
The city of good liberals asks the Supreme Court for regulatory relief.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Oct. 14, 2024
TWTW Summary: The Editorial begins with:
“Well, well. Look who’s asking the Supreme Court for help against overreaching regulators. On Wednesday the Justices will consider whether the Environmental Protection Agency can punish the city of San Francisco for dirty water in the Pacific Ocean.
City and County of San Francisco v. EPA involves a permitting scheme under the 1972 Clean Water Act. The law requires localities and businesses to obtain permits to discharge pollutants into waterways.
San Francisco operates a sewage and stormwater treatment system that experiences overflows during heavy storms, resulting in effluent discharges into the Pacific. The EPA in 2019 imposed conditions on its permits that hold the city’s system responsible if its discharges ‘cause or contribute’ to water in the Pacific that violates federal and state standards.
EPA and the environmental group San Francisco Baykeeper then sued San Francisco for sewage discharges since 2013 that they say contributed to dirty water in the Pacific. Each permit violation is punishable with fines of more than $66,000 a day. San Francisco’s potential liability runs into the hundreds of millions.
San Francisco says it’s unfair to hold it responsible for the ocean pollution since there are hundreds of other culprits. The city adds that the Clean Water Act lets EPA specify limits only on discharges or technology to control pollution from so-called point sources.
EPA’s generic permit conditions makes compliance with the law ‘elusive, because a waterbody’s ability to meet water quality standards at any time depends on pollutants that all sources—not just San Francisco—contribute,’ San Francisco says in its brief. ‘The City consequently lacks advanced notice of how much it must control its discharges.’
While seeking enormous penalties, EPA is leaving the city ‘in the dark about what it allegedly did wrong,’ San Francisco says. In short, EPA has set a moving target that the city has no way of meeting, short of shutting down its sewage system.”
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Confusion: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is less than clear and precise in its definitions and writings concerning greenhouse gas emissions, principally carbon dioxide emissions, causing global warming, now called climate change.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Someone at SEPP isn’t up to speed, the new term widely used is “The Climate Crisis”
A simple Google search on “The Climate Crisis” turns up the following:
The Climate Crisis – A Race We Can Win
Welcome to the United Nations
The Climate Crisis: Working Together for Future Generations
U.S. Department of State
Tackling the Climate Crisis
U.S. Department of the Interior (.gov)
“Someone at SEPP isn’t up to speed, the new term widely used is “The Climate Crisis””
The lesbianocracy of Wokeachusetts says it’s a “climate emergency”. An emergency is FAR WORSE than a mere crisis! The population of this state is less than 1/1,000 of the human race. But, miraculously, when we arrive at net zero nirvana, the planet will be saved!
“causing global warming, now called climate change.”
It’s been called climate change for over 35 years, since the IPCC was formed. This is a canard we need to ignore.
“””the failure of the IPCC to be clear “””
You can only applaud the IPCC for following the latest in political trends. It has been discovered that by remaining totally vague, and almost silent, you can win through.
Exhibit #1 Keir Starmer
Exhibit #2 Kamala Harris.
The former was absurdly successful – thanks to FPTP – and has sent ‘troops’ to campaign for an ally on that basis… Luckily, followers of the narratives have all gone along with it; it isn’t political interference, it’s friendly help.
Hopefully, that’s cleared that up.
Being vague…
What is a working person?
“”Minister Stephen Kinnock was asked a pretty simple question ahead of the budget this morning: “Are six-figure earners working people?” No response – six times in a row…
Kinnock eventually said Labour hadn’t worked out what a “working person” was yet…
https://order-order.com/2024/10/21/minister-hints-at-labour-tax-raid-on-six-figure-earners/
50 years ago, the question would have been, “Are five-figure earners ‘working people’?” After decades of inflation, six figures isn’t all that much anymore.
Some interesting tidbits in this one-
Tesco signs deal to buy enough solar energy to power 144 large stores | Solar power | The Guardian
The usual gushing over more fickle solar panels rolling out but then that proviso-
The site will feature more than 560,000 solar panels – some as tall as buses – and energy storage infrastructure. The French state-owned utility EDF will provide power balancing services.
Just how much storage and how much external grid balancing is the question. So much for Tesco supermarkets running largely during the day but notice 24/7/365 Google and Microsoft opting for nukes with Google choosing this ‘future’ mini supplier in particular-
Homepage – Kairos Power
while Microsoft stick with traditional nukes and Three Mile Island.
The first link doesn’t say how big the site will be- I estimate probably about 500 acres? At this rate, the UK will be extremely ugly once you reach net zero nirvana. Forget the tourist industry- nobody will want to go there. I doubt there’s enough land in the entire UK to produce all the energy that will be needed. Yes, of course- wind machines at sea- but aren’t the best sites already taken? Just don’t build any wind machines within site of a Trump golf course. 🙂
If anyone disagrees with the scientific arguments for global warming, please submit your reappraisals to the appropriate scientific journals. I suggest: The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, the International Journal of Climatology, the Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, and Nature, among others. Your arguments will be carefully and expertly peer-reviewed. Work that involves misleading or erroneous arguments or that does not properly cite its references will be rejected. Do not expect to be taken seriously until you show, using accepted experimental and analytical techniques, that you have a credible explanation for the data on climate change. The world’s scientific community awaits your response.
Unless you’re a member of the Hockey Team, then you can use all the “novel” statistical methods you like, and no editor will bat an eye.
Also, whether you agree or disagree is irrelevant. Those performing these studies should not have any pre-conceived notions. They should let the data speak for themselves.
Work that involves misleading or erroneous arguments or that does not properly cite its references will be rejected. Do not expect to be taken seriously until you show, using accepted experimental and analytical techniques, that you have a credible explanation for the data on climate change.
Repeating yourself doesn’t make it true.
The way the planet sheds heat is through energy emissions to space. Everything above absolute zero emits energy. There is more than 500 times as much O2 as CO2 in the atmosphere and more than 1900 times as much N2 as CO2. Their energy emissions may be smaller per unit quantity but it is quite unlikely they are irrelevant.