The Week That Was: 2023-09-16 (September 16, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I fully agree with you concerning the pseudo-science of astrology. The interesting point is that this kind of superstition is so tenacious that it could persist through so many centuries.”— The Collected Papers of Albert Einstein.
Number of the Week:20 weeks at below 20 percent
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The approved Synthesis Report of the IPCC on Sixth Assessment Report will be presented and what is omitted is discussed. This will be followed by edited versions of two essays by AMO physicist Howard Hayden on what is missing in the Global Climate Models used by the IPCC.
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AR6 Synthesis Summary for Policymakers: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has approved the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The Synthesis Report (SYR) is the report that brings together all the reports making up the Sixth Assessment, the first of which was the scientific basis.
To recognize Climate Week, NYC, which opens September 17 in partnership with the UN General Assembly, this TWTW will review the major headings and subheadings of the report but omit the referenced figures. The referenced figures are colorful but impart little additional meaning to what is written. Instead, TWTW will emphasize what is omitted by the IPCC, therefore, to show that this report is highly biased, as are most that have come before it. Thus, the 30 plus page Synthesis Report called the Summary for Policymakers can be summarized into about four pages.
“Observed Warming and its Causes.
A.1 Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals (high confidence).
A.1.1 Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C5 higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] °C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C). Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001–2020) was 0.99 [0.84 to 1.10] °C higher than 1850–1900. Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years (high confidence).
Observed Changes and Impacts
A.2 Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have occurred. Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people (high confidence). Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected (high confidence).
Current Progress in Adaptation and Gaps and Challenges
A.3 Adaptation planning and implementation has progressed across all sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness. Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist, and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation. Hard and soft limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems and regions. Maladaptation is happening in some sectors and regions. Current global financial flows for adaptation are insufficient for, and constrain implementation of, adaptation options, especially in developing countries (high confidence).
Current Mitigation Progress, Gaps and Challenges
A.4 Policies and laws addressing mitigation have consistently expanded since AR5. Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by nationally determined contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions. (high confidence)
Future Climate Change
B.1 Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards (high confidence). Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years (high confidence).
Climate Change Impacts and Climate-Related Risks
B.2 For any given future warming level, many climate-related risks are higher than assessed in AR5, and projected long-term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed (high confidence). Risks and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages from climate change escalate with every increment of global warming (very high confidence). Climatic and non-climatic risks will increasingly interact, creating compound and cascading risks that are more complex and difficult to manage (high confidence).
Likelihood and Risks of Unavoidable, Irreversible or Abrupt Changes
B.3 Some future changes are unavoidable and/or irreversible but can be limited by deep, rapid, and sustained global greenhouse gas emissions reduction. The likelihood of abrupt and/or irreversible changes increases with higher global warming levels. Similarly, the probability of low-likelihood outcomes associated with potentially very large adverse impacts increases with higher global warming levels. (high confidence)
Adaptation Options and their Limits in a Warmer World
B.4 Adaptation options that are feasible and effective today will become constrained and less effective with increasing global warming. With increasing global warming, losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits. Maladaptation can be avoided by flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions, with co-benefits to many sectors and systems. (high confidence)
Carbon Budgets and Net Zero Emissions
B.5 Limiting human-caused global warming requires net zero CO2 emissions. Cumulative carbon emissions until the time of reaching net zero CO2 emissions and the level of greenhouse gas emission reductions this decade largely determine whether warming can be limited to 1.5°C or 2°C (high confidence). Projected CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement would exceed the remaining carbon budget by 1.5°C (50%) (high confidence).
Mitigation Pathways
B.6 All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. Global net zero CO2 emissions are reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively. (high confidence)
Overshoot: Exceeding a Warming Level and Returning
B.7 If warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it could gradually be reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions. This would require additional deployment of carbon dioxide removal, compared to pathways without overshoot, leading to greater feasibility and sustainability concerns. Overshoot entails adverse impacts, some irreversible, and additional risks for human and natural systems, all growing with the magnitude and duration of overshoot. (high confidence)
C. Responses in the Near Term
Urgency of Near-Term Integrated Climate Action
C.1 Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health (very high confidence). There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all (very high confidence). Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies (high confidence). The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence).
The Benefits of Near-Term Action
C.2 Deep, rapid, and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade would reduce projected losses and damages for humans and ecosystems (very high confidence), and deliver many co-benefits, especially for air quality and health (high confidence). Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets and cost-escalation, reduce feasibility, and increase losses and damages (high confidence). Near-term actions involve high up-front investments and potentially disruptive changes that can be lessened by a range of enabling policies (high confidence).
Mitigation and Adaptation Options across Systems
C.3 Rapid and far-reaching transitions across all sectors and systems are necessary to achieve deep and sustained emissions reductions and secure a livable and sustainable future for all. These system transitions involve a significant upscaling of a wide portfolio of mitigation and adaptation options. Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available, with differences across systems and regions. (high confidence)
Synergies and Trade-Offs with Sustainable Development
C.4 Accelerated and equitable action in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts is critical to sustainable development. Mitigation and adaptation actions have more synergies than trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals. Synergies and trade-offs depend on context and scale of implementation. (high confidence)
Governance and Policies
C.6 Effective climate action is enabled by political commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology. Clear goals, coordination across multiple policy domains, and inclusive governance processes facilitate effective climate action. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emissions reductions and climate resilience if scaled up and applied widely. Climate resilient development benefits from drawing on diverse knowledge. (high confidence)
Finance, Technology, and International Cooperation
C.7 Finance, technology and international cooperation are critical enablers for accelerated climate action. If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold. There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action. Enhancing technology innovation systems is key to accelerate the widespread adoption of technologies and practices. Enhancing international cooperation is possible through multiple channels. (high confidence)”
TWTW Comments – Deficiencies in the report:
The most glaring deficiency in the report is that it starts in 1850, implying that Earth’s climate was stable until then. This contradicts all of Geoscience (Earth Science) which focuses on the processes that form and shape Earth’s surface, the natural resources we use, and how water and ecosystems are interconnected. Attendees to Climate Week, NYC, need only to stroll through Central Park and observe the deep gouges in the exposed granite bedrock which were caused by ice thousands of feet thick slowly moving across it.
These ice ages are the major characteristic of Icehouse Earth, with icecaps at both poles, which Earth has been in for about 3.5 million years. The data is presented in the journal Science and unraveled by Geoscientist Tom Gallagher. We are now in a brief wet, warm period of Icehouse Earth. The general conditions are cold, dry, and dusty with the great breadbaskets of the world barren.
The Global Climate Models, also called General Circulation Models, so favored by the IPCC are incapable of describing an inevitable and severe global cooling which is sure to come. Further, the IPCC ignores Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in Greenland ice cores, first reported by Willi Dansgaard and Hans Oeschger. D-O events occurred during the last major glaciation. According to NOAA:
“Each of the 25 observed D-O events consisted of an abrupt warming to near interglacial conditions that occurred in a matter of decades and was followed by a gradual cooling.”
The causes are not clear. Tom Gallagher also discusses the periods of abrupt warming in his videos. DO-Events are unrelated to carbon dioxide (CO2) but are spikes in temperatures that do not last thousands of years.
Further, the IPCC ignores the work of the International Commission on Stratigraphy, which shows that this current warm period has undergone distinct periods of cooling, the first about 8,200 years ago, and the second about 4,200 years ago leading to the present. Based on recorded history, we know that over past 4,200 years, Earth has experience distinct warm periods called the Minoan, Roman, Medieval, and the current warm periods followed by cold periods, such as the Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age, when crops did not ripen in regions of Europe and Asia.
The IPCC compounds this enormous ignorance of climate history, with imaginary calculations of temperatures since 1850. Even today, there is no agreed upon method for calculating average global surface temperatures although the real-averaged temperatures measured by satellites of the lower and mid-troposphere where the bulk of greenhouse effect occurs are largely agreed upon. The ignorance demonstrated by the report can only be described as deliberate, thus the climate recommendations by the UN IPCC have no scientific bases and can be considered as meaningless. Apparently, the BRICS nations such as China and India agree and will continue to use hydrocarbon fuels to promote prosperity.
Since October 2015, the Chair of the IPCC is Hoesung Lee, an economist from South Korea. One would think he would understand the extent that the use of hydrocarbon fuels has contributed to the enormous growth in prosperity created in his country since the 1950s. According to the World Bank (in unadjusted US dollars), the Per Capita GDP of South Korea in 1960 was 158 US dollars, in 2022 it was 32,250 US dollars. Amazing how some academics who benefit so greatly from prosperity can turn their backs on activities that contribute to that prosperity.
See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-15-23.pdf. For a discussion of O events see https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-11/2%20Heinrich%20and%20Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger%20Events%20-%20Final-OCT%202021.pdf. For discussion of videos by Tom Gallagher, see http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-15-23.pdf for World Bank calculations of GDP per capital income of the Republic of Korea. There are no data for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea.
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Questioning Models: Writing in The Energy Advocate, AMO Physicist Howard Hayden questions the work contained in the AR5 and AR6 reports of the Scientific Basis. In the essay “Giga, Tera, Peta, ExaFlops” Hayden discusses the Heat Balance diagram in IPCC’s AR5, in which all numbers are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2). He states:
The two numbers that are hardest to measure with high accuracy are the “sensible heat” of 20 +/-5, and the “imbalance” of 0.6 +/-0.4 and the [error is unknown] because both involve subtraction of large numbers to obtain small differences, which is always dicey with imperfectly known numbers. The “sensible” heat value is the worldwide difference between heat transferred from the surface to the atmosphere by direct contact and the heat going to the surface, also by direct contact. The “imbalance” can in principle be measured by measuring the difference between absorbed solar heat and emitted IR but is more likely estimated from the rate at which the average temperature has been rising. A positive imbalance is consistent with a warming earth.
Children learn in grade school that energy can be neither created nor destroyed but can be converted from one form to another. [Hayden’s] Figure 1 [not shown here] shows five examples of the conservation of energy. For example, the surface receives 161 directly from the sun and 342 from the atmosphere, making a total of 503. The surface loses 84 through evaporation, 20 by sensible heat, 398 via infrared, for a total of 502, for a net absorption of 1, or to the best accuracy they can obtain, 0.6. There is one number missing from IPCC’s original drawing, and that is the one that most people think is the specialty of the IPCC: the greenhouse effect. Finally, in the Sixth Assessment Report, the IPCC assigned a symbol (G) and a number (159 W/m2) to the greenhouse effect. The number is simply the numerical difference between the surface IR emission of 398 W/m2 and the emission to space (239 W/m2). Of course, the self-realization did not cause the IPCC to include the greenhouse effect in their heat-balance diagram in that report. [Boldface in original]
A more serious omission, however, is that the climate models so loved by the IPCC have never been used to construct heat-balance drawings for the future. It’s just too much to ask when your supercomputers are limited to a few petaflops. [Boldface were italics in original.] Simply, speed of computer calculations makes little difference if the theoretical understanding has not been tested against experiments and / or observations, and the data are not there. For the whole essay see http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/2802.pdf
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Climate Models: In his essay on climate models Hayden begins:
“To predict tomorrow’s weather, you begin with today’s weather and then apply laws of physics. Small uncertainties in the data lead to small uncertainties in the prediction for tomorrow, but larger uncertainties in the prediction for the next day. Now begin with the notion that CO2 controls climate. To predict future climate, you must make assumptions about how much CO2 will be released annually by burning coal, oil, and natural gas, and how much of that CO2 will remain in the atmosphere. In IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, 2014), they introduced the terminology Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), and in AR6 (2021) the nom du jour became Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP). That is, the notion that CO2 controls climate is a built-in assumption of IPCC’s climate models. Not surprisingly, the logicians at IPCC have concluded that CO2 controls climate.
Let us have a look at IPCC’s confused terminology.
Presently, sunlight averaged over the spherical shape of the earth is 340 watts per square meter (W/m2) and 30% of that is reflected to space so we absorb 239 W/m2. (We use IPCC’s numbers throughout.) Equilibrium demands that we radiate 239 W’m2 to outer space. The surface radiates, on average, 398 W/m2, and the atmosphere has a net absorption of 159 W/m2 of that IR.
It would have been reasonable for the IPCC to refer to the net IR absorption of 159 W/m2 as ‘radiative forcing F,’ and to changes in F with the symbology delta F, where the ‘delta’ usually indicates a change. They did not do so. Confusingly, they refer to ‘Radiative forcing delta F (W m–2)’ in the Third Assessment Report. But things are even worse than that. IPCC’s definition in the Sixth Assessment Report is shown in the box [boldface] below.
IPCC: AR6
Radiative forcing The change in the net, downward minus upward, radiative flux (expressed in W m–2) due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the concentration of volcanic aerosols or the output of the Sun.
If you needed further proof that IPCC does not understand basic science, it’s right there in the box [Boldface above]. The law of Planetary Heat Balance says that at equilibrium, the heat absorbed from the sun (‘downward radiative flux’) equals the heat radiated into space (‘upward radiative flux’). At equilibrium, ‘downward minus upward’ radiative flux is necessarily zero, regardless of the amount of sunlight at our orbit, the albedo, or the greenhouse effect. By IPCC’s definition, the ‘radiative forcing’ is zero at equilibrium. The eight (8) Coordinating Editors and the twenty-six (26) members of the Editorial Team that wrote the 40-page Glossary can’t even define the most important term in IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.
What IPCC is really trying to say is that there are three things that affect the visible and IR radiative quantities: the amount of sunlight, the albedo, and the greenhouse gases. If the amount of sunlight increases or the albedo decreases, the planet absorbs more solar energy. If the greenhouse effect increases, the net absorption of IR increases.”
Hayden then goes through figures presented by the IPCC in AR6, then concludes:
“Here is a challenge to any and all ‘climate scientists’ who produce or use climate models:
• Choose an SSP. Any SSP. [Shared Socio-economic Pathway]
• Choose a scenario. Any scenario.
• Choose a time in the future. Any time 20 or more years into the future.
• Use the results of the supercomputer code for that SSP, scenario, and time to make a heat balance diagram.
• You must include the number that is missing from other heat-balance diagrams—the greenhouse effect G.
• You must show how G is calculated from the ‘radiative forcing.’
I have offered some ‘climate scientists’ a $1,000 wager to make such a heat-balance drawing: ‘$1,000 says you can’t do it. Agree to the wager now, and you have two weeks to do the work.’
Exeunt stage left.
To see why this wager is safe, it helps to look at the increase in surface emission caused by temperature rise and compare it with the total radiative forcing expected by 2100. For example, the SSP1-2.6 designation means that IPCC expects 2.6 W/m2 increased radiative forcing by 2100 (the reference date is 1850-1900.) All of those models (blue lines in the drawing) would result in increased surface IR emission in the range of 6-to-10 W/m2. How is it possible to block an additional 6-to-10 W/m2 with an increase in the ‘radiative forcing’ of only 2.6 W/m2?
Similarly, the SSP3-7.0 models show 15-to-30 W/m2 being blocked by only 7.0 W/m2 of increased IR-blocking ability.”
In its approved writings, the IPCC does not understand the greenhouse effect and the global climate models do not calculate it properly. For the whole essay see http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/2802.pdf
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Number of the Week: 20 weeks at below 20 percent. Paul Homewood points out:
“In 2017, Dr Capell Aris wrote this paper.
Although it was based on a larger proportion of onshore wind and wind capacity of 10 GW, its findings are still relevant:” [Note: In Aris’s report, “Power” means power from wind; “available power” means power delivered to grid.]
From the report: “The model reveals that power output has the following pattern over a year:
i Power exceeds 90% of available power for only 17 hours.
ii Power exceeds 80% of available power for 163 hours.
iii Power is below 20% of available power for 3,448 hours (20 weeks)
iv Power is below 10% of available power for 1,519 hours (9 weeks)”
The paper was on the onshore wind power. But weather systems are large, often over 1000 miles wide and often stops offshore wind. What kind of battery capacity is needed to provide the backup for the 20 weeks with less than 20% wind power in systems with no reliable (dispatchable) power? See links under: Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
No One Talks About It: Solar System “Climate Change” … Happening Beyond Planet Earth
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2023
Do not mention the sun
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
Climategate Continued
The Wolf and the Lamb — Alimonti et al. 2022
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 13, 2023
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Are you or Have you Ever Published the Work of a Climate Skeptic?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 15, 2023
“Dr. Willie Soon emailed me the curious case of an editor of the journal Climate apparently being investigated by NASA GISS director Gavin Schmidt, for publishing Soon’s study.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Nobel Winner Refutes Climate Change Narrative, Points Out Ignored Factor
By Jan Jekielek and Mimi Nguyen Ly, Epoch Times, Via CO2 Coalition, Sep 10, 2023
Mr. Clauser criticized U.S. government efforts to reduce CO2 and methane as a colossal misuse of resources better allocated for humanitarian endeavors. Such initiatives, he argues, ‘should be stopped immediately.’
‘[It’s] a total waste of money and time and effort. It is strangling industry,’ he said.But Mr. Clauser is not holding his breath.
‘My suspicion is what I am saying here will be totally ignored because people don’t like being told that they’ve made big mistakes of this magnitude,’ he said.”
Here’s the Climate Dissent You’re Not Hearing About Because It’s Muffled by Society’s Top Institutions
By John Murawski, Real Clear Investigations, Sep 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: An essay giving the views of many who disagree with the claim of a climate emergency or crisis.]
Study Finds Big Blackouts From Biden’s Power Plant Rules
By Isaac Orr & Mitch Rolling, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2023
Link to report to EPA: New Source Performance Standards for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from New, Modified, and Reconstructed Fossil Fuel-Fired Electric Generating Units; Emission Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Fossil Fuel-Fired Electric Generating Units; and Repeal of the Affordable Clean Energy Rule (Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2023–0072; FRL–8536–02– OAR).
By Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling, American Experiment, Aug 8, 2023
From the article: “These grid operators have legitimate reasons to worry because, as it turns out, Biden’s EPA never conducted a basic reliability analysis to see if its proposal would keep the lights on 24/7. This was a massive error.”
[SEPP Comment: In the 1970s the Mid-west US suffered devastating blackouts in part, based on the false belief that the US will soon run out of natural gas. Now Washington is claiming that the US is using too much natural gas, oil and coal, and under the Inflation Reduction Act is implementing policies that will lead to blackouts contributing to inflation. What muddleheaded thinking!]
The ‘Climate Emergency’ Is A Hoax
By Robert Williams, Gatestone Institute, Via Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Sep 12, 2023
More than 1,600 scientists, including two Nobel laureates, have signed a declaration saying that “There is no climate emergency.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023
By Hoesung Lee (Chair) and 30 Authors including Katherine Calvin from NASA, Alexander Ruane, NASA-GISS,, Christopher Jones, MET Office Hadley Centre, and Friederike Otto, University of Oxford, UN, Approved, Accessed Sep 11, 2023
Summary for Policymakers, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
You Will Build Nothing & Be Happy
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Via WUWT, Sep 14, 2023
Link to press release: UN plan promises massive emission cuts in the construction sector – the most polluting and toughest to decarbonize
By Staff, UN Environment Programme, Sep 12, 2023
Link to report: Building Materials and the Climate: Constructing a New Future
By United Nations Environment Programme, & Yale Center for Ecosystems + Architecture, 2023
Human emissions shown to drive changes in North Atlantic ocean temperatures, West African rainfall and hurricanes
Press Release, Phys.Org, Sep 13, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing
By Chengfei H, et al, Nature, Sep 1`3, 2023
Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing | Nature
From the abstract: “The relationship is obscured in a large ensemble of CMIP6 Earth system models, because the models overestimate long-term trends for warming in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere from around 1950 as well as associated changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall.”
Six of Nine Sacred Planetary Boundaries now exceeded say Earth’s sustainability witchdoctors
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 14, 2023
Link to paper: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
By Katherine Richardson, plus over 25 co-authors., AAAS Science Advances, Sep 13, 2023
The abstract starts: “This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Activists Rev Up Hype as Catastrophe Narrative Crumbles says Friends of Science Society
Press Release, Friends of Science Society, Sep 14, 2023
Shocking Failures of Climate and Covid Science Highlighted by Critical New Report
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Sep 12, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
The E in EPA Certainly Isn’t for ‘Ethics’
At Biden’s EPA, ethics officials are operating the revolving door.
By Michael Chamberlain, Real Clear Energy, Sep 12, 2023
Soaking Man
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
“’The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), an arm of the United Nations, reckons that a five-day forecast today is about as accurate as a two-day forecast was a quarter of a century ago.’”
[SEPP Comment: But using the same techniques, the UN can make climate predictions into the 22nd century with high confidence?]
As The World Sizzles
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 1, 2023
Video
Energy and Environmental Review: September 11, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Sep 11, 2023
Change in US Administrations
Biden Admin Hosted ‘Indigenous Knowledge’ Seminars That Warned Scientists About ‘Disrespecting’ Spirits: REPORT
By Jason Cohen, Dailly Caller, Sep 6, 2023
Link to memo: Guidance for Federal Departments and Agencies on Indigenous Knowledge,
By Brenda Arati Prabhakar, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Mallory, Chair Council on Environmental Policy, Nov 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Waiting to see Washington bureaucrats apply indigenous knowledge to their homes and offices, particularly their toilet facilities.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
G20 fails to agree fossil fuel phase-out despite warnings
By AFP Staff Writers. New Delhi (AFP) Sept 9, 2023
U.N. says more needed ‘on all fronts’ to meet climate goals
By David Stanway and Riham Alkousaa, Reuters, Sep 8, 2023
Link to: Why the Global Stocktake is a Critical Moment for Climate Action
By Staff, UN Climate Change, Accessed Sep 11, 2023
“’The global stocktake is an ambition exercise. It’s an accountability exercise. It’s an acceleration exercise,’ said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. ‘It’s an exercise that is intended to make sure every Party is holding up their end of the bargain, knows where they need to go next and how rapidly they need to move to fulfill the goals of the Paris Agreement.’
[SEPP Comment: More bureaucratic drivel from the UN.]
This World Leader Is Calling Out the Western Climate Hypocrites
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Se 9, 2023
Seeking a Common Ground
BOOK REVIEW: ‘Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response’ [By Judith Curry]
By Anthony J. Sadar, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 5, 2023
Don’t hate the player, hate the game
On Patrick Brown, Science Wars, and the Academic Publishing Business
By Jessica Weinkle, Conflicted, Sep 12, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“In a remarkable essay at The Free Press, Patrick Brown, a researcher at The Breakthrough Institute, gave the world a lesson on how the sausage is made in headline stirring climate change science. Start the research with the publication outlet end in mind.”
“Brown makes it difficult to ignore the decades worth of abundant observations that mainstream climate change science is not just politicized, it is big business. And elite journals are in on it.”
[SEPP Comment: The big business of corrupting of scientific integrity.]
The true nature of climate journals
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
“Here let us return to a theme of considerable importance to us at CDN, which is that climate alarmism is no more a “hoax” or a “fraud” than, say, climate skepticism. But here’s [Patrick] Brown admitting he fudged his conclusions.
Lomborg on the 21st century part 3: economic costs of climate change
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
Changing Weather
A Stunningly Good Hurricane Forecast
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 14, 2023
NOAA: Climate disasters cost U.S. $2.6 trillion since 1980
Hurricane Idalia, wildfires in Maui contribute to billions in losses for 2023
By A.L. Lee, UPI, Sep 12, 20023 [H/t William Readdy]
Link to report: Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters
By Staff, National Centers for Environmental Information (updated monthly) Accessed Sep 12
[SEPP Comment: Adjusts for inflation but not for population shifts to the South.]
Stuff you’re not allowed to know #4: floods
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
The Transition to Meteorological Fall
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 12, 2023
September Heatwaves
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2023
Democracy Dies In Darkness
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 15, 2023
Video – on 1927
Global Boiling Summer In The USA
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 13, 2023
1953 Floods And Drought
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 12, 2023
[SEPP Comments: Includes some US floods such as along the Kalmath River, where greens are demanding dams be removed. https://www.americanrivers.org/2023/06/6-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-klamath-river-dam-removals/ ]
Hurricanes, Tornadoes and Wildfires in 1953
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 14, 2023
California summer: where did it go? [1999]
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
From the CO2 Science archive:
Changing Climate
Pyrenean caves reveal a warmer past
By Daivd Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Sep 12, 2023
Link to paper: Reconstructing land temperature changes of the past 2,500 years using speleothems from Pyrenean caves (NE Spain)
Miguel Bartolomé, et al, Climate of the Past, European Geosciences Union, Preprint July 6, 2023
From Whitehouse: In summary: Over the past 2500 years it was the Roman Period that was the warmest. A cold period started around 300 AD with two particularly cold events in 500-650 and 750-850. The warm and dry Medieval Climatic Anomaly was well observed as well as the Little Ice Age. Cooling was observed during the Maunder Minimum and possibly the Dalton Minimum, both periods of low solar activity. Low temperatures started to increase around 1950 and the temperature increase since then is most notable in the past 2500 years.
500 years of drought and flood: trees and corals reveal Australia’s climate history
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2023
Changing Seas
Ocean Warming Crest August 2023, Solar Coincidence?
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 15, 2023
Have Sea Level Rise Data Been Faked? Altimetry ‘Corrects’ Non-Trends To Show Rapid Acceleration
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 14, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Earlier “adjustments” may be wrong.]
Saving San Francisco From Sea Level Rise
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 13, 2023
“There has been little or no sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay over the last 80 years, but the city of San Francisco wants to take drastic action to save the city from sea level rise.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
MSN Pushes Rice, Sugar, Tomato Crises – Despite New Crop Records
By James Taylor, Climate Realism, Sep 12, 2023
“The objective fact, as shown definitively by United Nations crop data, is that crop production of nearly all kinds throughout virtually the entire world is setting is setting impressive and live-providing new records nearly every year. This is happening in concurrence with more atmospheric carbon dioxide and modestly warming temperatures.”
Lowering Standards
The Times view on scientific journals and editorial bias: Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 10, 2023
“It’s good to see that The Times has covered this story:”
Did the BBC’s Specialist Disinformation Reporter Lie on her CV?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 13, 2023
“Thank goodness for people like Marianna Spring, who after allegedly lying on her CV, went on to help us understand conspiracy theorists who criticize the urgent need for government enforced Covid lockdowns are just like conspiracy theorists who oppose renewables, and deny we are in the midst of a climate crisis.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
DeSantis is Right, New York Times, We Should all ‘Shrug Off the Threat’ of Catastrophic Climate Change
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Sep 12, 2023
A Government Scientist Said
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 13, 2023
The Seattle Times Pushes Climate Anxiety
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 10, 2023
Stonehaven crash: Network Rail fined £6.7m over fatal derailment
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 9, 2023
“And yet despite all of these damning facts, the contemptible BBC still want to link the accident to climate change:”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Lab Experiment Shows A 2500-Fold CO2 Increase Delivers Surface Cooling, Not Warming
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 11, 2023
Link to paper: The Influence of Heat Source IR Radiation on Black-Body Heating/Cooling with Increased CO2 Concentration
By Thorstein O. Seim and Borgar T. Olsen, Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, April 27, 2023
From Richards: “Either way, experimental results that show only modest temperature changes occur when CO2 is dramatically increased do not lend support to the “verification” of the CO2 greenhouse effect. And it especially does not validate the popular viewpoint that CO2 is a driving factor in modern global warming.”
More Proof CO2 Global Warming is Bogus
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 14, 2023
The data used is from C3 Headlines which used the more correct headline More Proof That CO2 Climate “Control Knob” Is Bogus, not the vague one used by Clutz.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The Mirage of Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Unraveling the IMF’s Dubious Claims
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Sep 15, 2023
“Historically, the IMF’s primary role was to maintain global financial stability. However, in recent years, the institution has expanded its purview to include climate change, aligning itself with the climate agendas of various governments.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Nature is so unnatural
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Save Our Cars! (Grassroots pushback against mandated EVs)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 15, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Relax, we are in the best of hands
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
Canadian Academics: Climate Change Assemblies could Break Political Deadlocks
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 14, 2023
“’ How climate assemblies can help Canada tackle the climate crisis’”
G20 leaders look to triple global renewable energy by 2030
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 11, 2023
Link to declaration: G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration
“One Earth, One Family, One Future”
New Delhi, India, 9-10 September 2023
From the article: “In a new declaration, the G20 leaders agreed to ‘pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally.’”
[SEPP Comment: Build the capacity in Antarctica, where no one needs reliable electricity?]
Questioning European Green
Yes, The “World’s Dumbest Energy Policy” Is In Fact Getting A Whole Lot Dumber
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 10, 2023
“The ‘world’s dumbest energy policy’ is getting a lot dumber: German power production plummets 11.4% in first half of 2023.”
When will our leaders admit that achieving net zero will cost trillions and is unachievable?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 13, 2023
Europe’s solar industry warns of bankruptcy risk as prices drop
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 12, 2023
“Strong demand, combined with large investments and fierce competition among Chinese suppliers led to overcapacities in the market and a price fall.
The industry calls on the European Commission to buy up European companies’ solar module stockpiles, to set up a Solar Manufacturing Bank at EU level and to boost demand for solar PV in Europe among others.”
Electricity from wind isn’t cheap and it never will be
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
New York Urgently Needs To Confront the Contradiction of Trying To Electrify Everything While Also Eliminating Fossil Fuels
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 13, 2023
“The New York Independent System Operator, which is well aware of this gigantic contradiction, talks vaguely of something they call a “dispatchable emissions-free resource” to fill the enormous gap. Other than nuclear, which is blocked, that is something that is a pure fantasy and does not exist.”
Wrong Move at the Wrong Time: Economic Impacts of the New Federal Building Energy Efficiency Mandates [Canada]
By Ross McKitrick, Fraser Institute, Sep 12, 2023
Non-Green Jobs
Labour In A Spin Over Green Steel Job Losses
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2023
Steel workers facing job losses under £500 million Net Zero subsidy plan
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2023
“If electric arc furnaces were the most efficient way of making steel, Port Talbot would already be investing in them, without the need for subsidies.
The reality is that arc furnaces use huge amounts of electricity, and at current prices are not as economical as blast furnaces, particularly as the coke used in the latter process provides coke gas, which is used in other parts of the steel works.
There is a further issue – arc furnaces rely on steel scrap and pig iron. But there is only a limited supply of scrap, and the pig iron will have to be sourced from other steel mills, which use blast furnaces anyway. In other words there is only an illusion of emission cuts, the likelihood being that pig iron will simply be imported.”
Will the UAW Strike Perpetuate the Death Spiral Already Mandated for the Automobile Industry?
By Ronald Stein, The Heartland Institute, Sep 15, 2023
Funding Issues
Rockefeller Foundation announcing $1B commitment to climate-change programs
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Sep 15, 2023
Litigation Issues
Another Week Of Your Federal Government In Action
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 10,2023
In Greenlighting the Mountain Valley Pipeline, Congress Abused Its Power
By Ethan Brown, Real Clear Energy, Sep 12, 2023
“Beyond requiring that federal agencies fast track MVP permit approvals, the FRA stated (1) no court has the jurisdiction to review approvals for the pipeline, and (2) the D.C. Circuit court has exclusive jurisdiction over any claim that this section of the FRA is invalid. In other words, the Fourth Circuit — the primary institution holding MVP accountable for its environmental damage — now has zero jurisdiction.”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA: Climate law will cut carbon emissions up to 43 percent
By Zack Buddryk, The Hill, Sep 12, 2023
Link to apparent press release: New EPA Report Shows Major Emissions Reductions in Electricity Sector from President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act
By EPA, Sep 12, 2023
Link to report: Electric Sector Emissions Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act: Assessment
of projected CO2 emission reductions from changes in electricity generation and use.
By Staff, EPA, EPA 430-R-23-004, 2023
“The report includes the projected reductions in CO2 emissions due to the IRA provisions.
represented in the models. Emissions projections are modeled in an ‘IRA scenario’ that
incorporates the effects of the IRA incentives, and these are compared to projections in a “No
IRA scenario.” (Both scenarios incorporate other state and federal policies finalized prior to the
IRA enactment—see Section 1.2).”
[SEPP Comment: In 2005, the US emitted about 2,300 Mt of CO2, in 2021 about 1,600 Mt. According to the graph on p.10 with no Inflation Reduction Act, the US would continue to emit the same amount. According to the graph it can go as low as about 750 Mt by 2035]
Biden administration announces largest recycling investment in 30 years
By Rachel Frazin, Sep 13, 2023
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced it would put more than $100 million toward recycling, saying the effort is funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
Dispatchable source of electricity
By Staff, Energy Education, University of Calgary, Accessed Sep 15, 2-23
‘Biggest clean energy disaster in years’ — UK government sells rights to the wind and no one wants them
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 12, 2023
Households face £2,300 bills under net zero plans
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 10, 2023
“This story also highlights a very serious dilemma.
As more and more households stop using gas, per govt plans, the increasingly small number still using gas will have to pay a much bigger share of the overheads associated with the gas network, and not just these decommissioning costs. As this very good article outlines, the alternative will be for government to assume responsibility for the gas grid and its costs.
A further problem, also outlined, is how we will be able to gradually decommission the gas grid, district by district. If, say, there are a few homes in a street still using gas, will their gas supply simply be cut off regardless?”
Price of gas boilers could rise by as much as £300 under new government ‘green’ regime
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 9, 2023
[SEPP Comment: No more hot baths or showers!]
Energy Issues – Australia
Don’t miss Will Happer in Australia
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 13, 2023
Energy Issues — US
Giant utility rejects net zero power, big fight follows
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: In this issue, Virginia resident Ken Haapala submitted comments encouraging that the State Corporation Commission permit no more non-dispatchable sources of electricity than it is legally required to permit.]
Energy Emergency Alert! ERCOT’s Close Call of September 6 (Part 2)
By Bill Peacock, Master Resource, Sep 13, 2023
Washington’s Control of Energy
Whole-of-Government Approach to Prevent American Production
By Aaron Johnson, Western Energy, Sep 1, 2023
Always Cutting Methane, Oil and Gas Must Sit at President Biden’s Climate Table
By Guy Caruso, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2023
Biden administration gives states more authority to block pipeline projects
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 14, 2023
“Specifically, the new Biden rule allows a state or tribe to consider any aspect of the project with the potential to impact water quality as it weighs whether to approve or block a project.” [Boldface added]
Sorry, But the Losers in Washington Can’t Pick Energy Winners
By David Vasquez, Real Clear Energy, Sep 13, 20233
Nuclear Energy and Fears
India Begins Commercial Operation of First Domestically Designed 700-MWe PHWR Nuclear Reactor
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 7, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Biden Administration Misleads the Public on the Vast Expanses of Land Needed for ‘Net Zero’
By James Varney, Real Clear Wired, Sep 12, 2023
Wind Power Reassessed–Dr Capell Aris
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 12, 2023
Link to report: Wind Power Reassessed: A review of the UK wind resource for
electricity generation
By Dr Capell Aris, IESIS, July 2017
http://www.iesisenergy.org/agp/Aris-Wind-paper.pdf
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Those Trying to Define Clean Hydrogen Are Missing the Point
By Gary DiElsi, Real Clear Energy, Sep 13, 2023
The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) included billions of dollars for the creation of hydrogen hubs. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established hydrogen tax credits based on lifecycle carbon analysis of the hydrogen production process. The DOE National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap provided a national hydrogen strategy, identifying so-called “green” hydrogen from electrolysis using renewable electricity as a major component.
Low Carbon Fuel Is the Key to Cutting GHGs
By Mike Roman, Real Clear Energy, Sep 13, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
100 TWh of Hydrogen Storage Needed To Avoid Blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 9, 2023
Link to press release: UK government must kick-start the construction of large-scale electricity storage or fail to meet legally binding net zero targets by 2050, warns Royal Society report
By The Royal Society, Sep 8, 2023
Link to report: Large-scale electricity storage
By Staff, The Royal Society, September 2023’
From the Executive Summary: “• In 2050 Great Britain’s demand for electricity could be met by wind and solar energy supported by large-scale storage.
• Wind supply can vary over time scales of decades and tens of TWhs of very long duration storage will be needed. The scale is over 1000 times that currently provided by pumped hydro in the UK, and far more than could conceivably be provided by conventional batteries.”
From Homewood: “It’s only taken these so-called experts two decades to work this out!”
“And we now know that offshore wind is a lot more expensive than we were told.
And on top of all of that, we would need to build 100 GW of hydrogen burning power stations for the times when there is little wind.”
Hydrogen Storage–Call For Comments
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Granholm blames ‘poor judgment’ after staff blocked off EV charger for her
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 15, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The term applies to the leadership of the DOE.]
Ford CEO: Granting Wage Rises Could Prevent The Transition to EVs
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 15, 2023
US Turns To Country Notorious For Child Labor And Unsafe Mines To Source Its EV Ambitions
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Aug 24, 2023
EVs Powered By Oil!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 10, 2023
Environmental Industry
Why won’t Greenpeace admit that wind turbines may be killing whales
By Matt Ridley, The Spectator, Sep 16, 2023
“‘No supporting evidence’ – a phrase you never heard Greenpeace use about genetically modified crops in its long campaign against them. The organisation, you see, long ago stopped caring much about conservation and became obsessed (when not managing its nine-figure annual budgets) with carbon dioxide. This brought it great riches in grants and made it a crony of the big companies it used to rail against, in this case Big Wind. Thus does the world turn.”
Conservation groups sue Biden administration for delayed decision on orchid protections
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Sep 13, 2023
“The orchid, native to south Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas, has seen its population decline by about 90 percent globally and by half in Florida … A confluence of factors has reduced the orchid’s population in Florida, including climate change, habitat depletion and poaching.”
[SEPP Comment: Is global cooling threatening the plant?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
400 Generations Of A Stable Climate
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 10, 2023
“The Sierra Club said Arctic sea ice would disappear in 2013, after 11,000 years of a stable climate.”
4-9 Degrees Warming At The Great Lakes By 2030
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 14, 2023
“In 1988, experts predicted the Great Lakes states would warm 4-9 degrees and the lakes would lose 2-9 feet of water by the year 2030. This would cause millions of people to migrate there.”
Who is John Kerry?
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
Video
Help! I Care More About Climate Change Than My Partner
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 14, 2023
Tidbits
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 9, 2023
“From the ‘all climate all the time’ file, apparently ‘Mandatory Composting Is Coming to New York City’ that ‘requires residents to separate food scraps and yard waste from their trash.’”
[SEPP Comment: Nothing like the sweet smell of city garbage piles in the summer!]
ARTICLES
No Articles this week.
“… A.1 Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming…”
Not sure exactly what they mean by “unequivocally”- I googled it and it gave the following meaning, “in a way that leaves no doubt”.
Really? no doubt at all?
Not in their minds…..
The expression “always wrong but never in doubt” comes to mind.
“Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.”
I suppose there may occasionally be a “weather extreme” but what the hell is a “climate extreme”?
Very good question!
“If you can’t define something you have no formal rational way of knowing that it exists. Neither can you really tell anyone else what it is. There is, in fact, no formal difference between inability to define and stupidity.”
— Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
I would guess it’s a weather extreme that just goes on and on and on … Jupiter’s Great Red Spot, maybe.
“Maladaptation can be avoided by flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions, with co-benefits to many sectors and systems.”
Nice, clear definition of totalitarianism. Gotta deal with those maladaptors!
It’s lingo bingo. With my dice I threw a three a six and a four and got…
[a] parallel transitional capability.
Some would refer to that quote as a “word salad”
. . . as exemplified multiple times in speeches made by Kamala Harris as our current VP, Lord help us.
“Limiting human-caused global warming requires net zero CO2 emissions.”
Like the Catholic church’s call to end sin! Not even a little bit of sin will be tolerated!
Using carbon offsets (AKA climate indulgences).
Leaves we waiting for the “new” Martin Luther.
Prof Michael E. Mann
@MichaelEMann
A reminder to #MAGAts: Your comments will be hidden, the account will be muted, blocked and reported (triple hit in twitter’s algorithm), and your timeline will be scoured by a team of volunteers for any possible twitter violations 😃
11:49 AM · Sep 17, 2023
“If warming exceeds a specified level such as 1.5°C, it could gradually be reduced again by achieving and sustaining net negative global CO2 emissions.”
One way proposed for net negative CO2 emissions, by a former IPCC author, Bill Moomaw, a physical chemist, is to never cut another tree- he calls it “proforestation”. Of course he lives in a nice 4,500′ square foot house in upscale Williamstown, MA- home of Ivy League Williams College. He and his supporters of this fantasy all live in big wood houses, with fine furniture and tons of paper products.
Yes, and how many orders-of-magnitude higher is Moomaw’s “carbon footprint” compared to the common folk that he blithely lectures on “proforestation”?
On the other hand, a well made and maintained large wood house can keep some carbon out of circulation for hundreds of years.
“Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all ….”
universal socialism- one world government
“To predict tomorrow’s weather, you begin with today’s weather”
Are there many places on Earth where saying “it will be very similar to today’s weather” and you’ll be correct over 50% of the time? What’s needed is an accurate forecact for 4 days time
I’ve been looking at weather forecast for this local for a while. They are made for the following 10 days but, from one day to the next, changes in the published forecast are not uncommon.
“Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets….”
Rapid action will result in trillions of dollars of stranded fossil fuel assets.
“The Week That Will Be…”
Future Climate Change
New “scientific” terms to add to your ‘climate [alarm] vocabulary’.
Carbon Bomb
The usage of the term ‘carbon bombs’ picked up after an investigative project of The Guardian this year.
…
carbon bombs’– coal, oil and gas projects
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/what-are-carbon-bombs-why-environmentalists-want-them-defused-7957290/
Super-Emitting Methane Leaks.
“fossil fuel extraction sites where gas leaks alone from future production would release levels of methane equivalent to 30 years of all US greenhouse gas emissions.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/03/guardian-methane-bombs-leaks-fracking-super-emitters-climate-crisis-threat/
““Audiences need to know not only that the planet is on fire but why that’s happening and what can be done about it,” said Kyle Pope, the editor and publisher of the Columbia Journalism Review and chair of the Covering Climate Now journalism awards judging committee. “This year’s winners exemplify the best in public-spirited journalism.””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/17/guardian-reporter-among-winners-of-climate-journalism-awards
They now hand out gongs for alarmism – what they call science based reporting; and what I would call modelled fear. They aren’t losing the propaganda war.
The IPCC does not make logical sense. The 1.5C and 2.0C numbers are mentioned over and over but nothing about what they mean.
The lefty goons are telling our children that there are tipping points at 1.5C, that the oceans will boil, there will be droughts floods and wildfires, and the atmosphere will kill us all in a spiral of disaster. You hear it constantly on the news, but it is not in the actual report!
1.5C is a magic number voted into existence just to scare people. At first it was 2.0C but then some projections were placing the likely time period for it too far in the future. So they reduced it to 1.5C to make it scarier. By their measurements we have already exceeded it. It has been exceeded many times in the distant past with no boiling oceans that left any evidence that can be detected.
Yet the idiots in Washington are literally planning to expend trillions of dollars to take western civilization apart just to somehow avoid reaching this magic number.
It is enough to make one suspect that there could be a hidden agenda of some kind behind all that.
https://www.freethink.com/futurology/reflecting-sunlight-cool-planet-storm
A professor of English at Vanderbilt University recently gave a talk about how the genre of climate fiction, or “cli-fi,” has a problem with “its intersection [of] race and genre.”
“I really think a lot of climate fiction is being written, but not recognized as such, especially African American literature,” Goddu said. “I want to expand […] what is considered climate fiction and [redefine] what we are actually reading and paying attention to.”
https://vanderbilthustler.com/2023/09/08/robert-penn-warren-center-for-the-humanities-begins-novel-seminar-series-with-professor-teresa-goddu/
From the above article’s fourth full paragraph quoting the IPCC’s AR6 Summary for Policymakers:
“A.1 Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850-1900 in 2011-2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from (blah,blah,blah).”
I observe how conveniently the author(s) of this DID NOT mention that the average global temperature for 1850-1900 was itself some 0.1–0.2 °C below the Medieval Warm Period of the interval 950-1250 AD (ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period ). See the attached graph that gives the positive anomaly for the MWP referenced to the zero anomaly period of 1850–1900, as noted at bottom right on the image.
This (intentional) omission by the IPCC author(s) clearly falsifies any assertion that “global warming” correlates to human emission of greenhouse gases.
And need I even mention the Holocene climate “optimum” (i.e., interval of peak temperature for the last 12,000 years) where average global temperatures were approximately 0.5 °C higher than that over the interval 1850–1900.
That the IPCC allows the use of the word “unequivocally” in its publications proves beyond doubt that it is an organization refusing to follow the scientific method or, put more simply, is completely bonkers.
Amazing how some academics who benefit so greatly from prosperity can turn their backs on activities that contribute to that prosperity.
I have some experience with academicians. They are narrow of expertise and assume that despite their efforts to undermine free markets and free people, the modern world they take for granted will always be there. I am not too impressed even with the very high status faculty members I have met — one exception being S. Fred Singer.
There are many good academics. The problem, per Murray Rothbard, is with the ‘court intellectuals’:
‘Since its rule is exploitative and parasitic, the State must purchase the alliance of a group of “Court Intellectuals,” whose task is to bamboozle the public into accepting and celebrating the rule of its particular State. The Court Intellectuals have their work cut out for them. In exchange for their continuing work of apologetics and bamboozlement, the Court Intellectuals win their place as junior partners in the power, prestige, and loot extracted by the State apparatus from the deluded public.’
It is not quite correct to say that equilibrium is achieved when there is a zero energy imbalance. We need enough of an energy imbalance to account for the energy that the plants use to grow; this is energy that is, in a sense, sequestered.
Anyone who has designed electrical circuits involving capacitors or inductors, or has worked with thermal physical systems having large heat capacity reservoirs (i.e., thermal “inertia”), knows quite well that a momentary energy balance anywhere in the system does not mean that the entire system under consideration is in a state of equilibrium . . . momentary energy balances (as between kinetic and potential energy, or as between energy inflow and energy outflow of a “black box” system) happen frequently in oscillating systems.
The IPCC asserts:
However, they cite no empirical evidence to support the assertion. On the other hand, I have demonstrated that during the 2020 Pandemic shutdowns, and measurable declines (>14%/month) in anthropogenic emissions, there was no measurable change in the seasonal ramp-up phase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/03/22/anthropogenic-co2-and-the-expected-results-from-eliminating-it/
And, in the ‘physics based’ calculations of the Global Circulation Models, they apparently use inputs of several significant figures — except albedo, which is apparently rounded off to 0.3, or just one significant figure, and yet obviously varies with wavelength and season. Strictly speaking, if one of their inputs only has a single digit of significance, than all calculations should be rounded down to one digit at the end.
Incidentally, I should note that the 88th edition (2007-2008) of the CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics gives the albedo of Earth as 0.367, about 22% higher than the figure commonly bandied about. Using that larger number would provide lower predictions of warming, even before taking into account the additional losses resulting from specular reflection from the oceans.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/12/why-albedo-is-the-wrong-measure-of-reflectivity-for-modeling-climate/
If anyone has ready access to a more current edition of the CRC Handbook, I’d appreciate knowing what the most recent estimate is.
Clyde,
I cannot speak for what might be in the latest edition of the CRC, but here is a good, free-download article (somewhat out of date, as it was published in 2014) that provides a very nice summary of values of Earth’s albedo and the history of how such were obtained:
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/71370/1/albedo.pdf
Table 1 in this article cites as it most up-to-date entry an average Earth albedo value of 0.29, attributed to “ERBE,CERES, 1984-up to present”
The same reference table does not list a value of 0.367, although it does cite a more-dated albedo value of 0.35 that is ascribed to “Fritz [1950] and Robinson [1958]”
I could not quickly locate an accurate value for Earth’s average albedo that is more recent than the value cited in this 2014 publication. Such may exist.
Thank you for the link.
As suspected, the discussion in the link deals with what is predominantly retro-reflection from diffuse reflectors such as clouds and vegetation, and never mentions specular reflection from open water. Actually, that is how the astronomical albedo is defined. However, it doesn’t capture the high-incidence angle forward-reflectance from water, smooth geological surfaces, or plants with waxy coatings. So, their estimates, when used for climate models, are a lower-bound on the solar flux reflected off clouds and water, which has to be obtained from an integration of the hemispherical bidirectional reflectance distribution function ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bidirectional_reflectance_distribution_function )
In the meantime, I have to do a little sleuthing to try to discover why your link uses measurements so much lower than what I have found to be a reliable source of information, namely, the CRC Handbook.
Sorry, but wouldn’t the ERBE and CERES satellite data that give the most recent estimate (well, that as of 2014) of Earth’s global average albedo “automatically” account for “specular reflection from open water” and “high-incidence angle forward-reflectance from water, smooth geological surfaces, or plants with waxy coatings”?
After all, the radiometer instruments are looking downward on Earth’s disk from space, and to the extent the periphery of Earth’s disk includes near-grazing angles-of-view, it should include specular and well as near-normal reflections off oceans, vegetation and land surfaces.
Looking downward, called a nadir view, basically only captures diffuse reflections and small-angle of incidence specular reflections. That is, nadir views give minimum reflectance values. To record near-grazing angle reflections, the satellites have to be looking into the sun. To avoid blinding the sensors, they typically cut off at about 70 deg angle of incidence, and they bin the high angles. Also, I don’t believe the the view can be steered to look into the sun and just looks across track. I haven’t taken the time to research the specifics. For something like Landsat, the Equator crossing is typically 10:00; to be able to look into the sun with an inclined, polar orbit, it will have one opportunity per orbit, sometime before crossing the Equator.
Not so. If it is local noon for any satellite, the Sun would be directly behind the satellite as it is imaging Earth . . . IOW, the satellite would be looking essentially 180 degrees away from incoming sunlight. And depending on the satellites altitude, it wouldn’t have to look that far off nadir to view Earth’s well-illuminated limb at a grazing angle.
For geostationary (or geosynchronous) weather or remote sensing satellites, the Earth’s disk subtends a total angle of only about 17.3 degrees limb-to-limb.
— https://quizlet.com/758471947/satellite-communications-indiabix-flash-cards/
“Clouds regulate the amount of solar radiation absorbed by a planet and its solar surface irradiance. Generally, increased cloud cover correlates to a higher albedo and a lower absorption of solar energy. Cloud albedo strongly influences the Earth’s energy budget, accounting for approximately half of Earth’s albedo.“
— https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_albedo
(my bold emphasis added)
Whole-disk images of Earth from orbiting geosynchronous weather satellites show Earth’s cloud coverage can vary from <10% to >70% over a matter of days or weeks. It would not surprise me if there weren’t also decadal variations of ±0.05 around the asserted average albedo of 0.3, given weather factors such as El Nino, La Nina, the PDO and the AMO that affect cloud development.
Looking at the big picture, there is actually no such thing as the Earth having a “steady state” energy balance, despite what Kiehl and Trenberth and others like to portray in their colorful “energy balance” (actually power flux, W/m^2, balance) diagrams.
The problem is that the oceans change from being mostly a diffuse (~Lambertian) reflector with >70% clouds, to a low-reflectance, glossy reflector with additional suspended diffuse reflectors (sediment and plankton) with a nadir view, to a mirror-like specular reflector for very-high angles of incidence, particularly near the Terminator, with <10% cloud coverage. Once again, it seems that climatologists are relying on gross approximations for a complex, but solvable, reflectance system.
story tip
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-unleashes-50-year-mining-oil-drilling-ban-across-thousands-acres-new-mexico
I’m reminded of the quip by Mark Twain that he had been on the verge of being an angel his whole life.
Yeah, good one . . . and CO2 might just be on the verge of affecting global climate if it wasn’t for the overwhelming presence of water vapor in Earth’s atmosphere.
Why is the IPCC using 1850 to 1900 as the baseline? In 1850 the Earth was just coming out of the Little Ice Age and it was still cold.
Stratospheric intrusion in the northwestern US brings snowfall to the Rocky Mountains.
