Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1.3-class solar flare (March 30 @ 1737 UT). The source is active sunspot AR2975–the same sunspot that has already hurled at least two CMEs toward Earth this week. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flare’s extreme ultraviolet flash:
Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Americas. Here is a blackout map. Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.
A CME is almost certainly emerging from the blast site. SOHO coronagraphs have not yet detected the cloud, but there is strong circumstantial evidence. For instance, the US Air Force has detected a Type II solar radio burst, a type of natural radio signal generated by CME shock waves. Also, NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory has imaged a solar tsunami apparently generated by a CME leaving the sun’s atmosphere.
Stay tuned for updates on what this power event means for Earth.
See it here
Visible planet is most likely Mercury but could be Vinus, someone might double check.
The other SOHO camera was practically blinded for few moments
Cool stuff!!! Thanks, Vuk!!!!
Not sure what planet Vinus is.
Venus + Linus. Don’t be Snoopy.
Venus is not one of the “Dog Stars”.
Come on man get ‘sirius’.
Well, I thought it would be clear to anyone it was a typo, I was to late to edit since I was trying to get Lasco C3 (blue) image.
Thanks for your comment, it certainly does make important contribution.
Thanks Vuk.. I thought it was planet 9 🙂
It’s obviously a Klingon Bird Of Prey.
Know your stellar objects.
Vinus is Venus’s no-good, double-dealing cousin, only shows up when the grapes have been trod (to sample the fruit of the vine, of course), never pays for groceries, and just generally acts as a layabout.
Sara… are you in, or from, Australia? “layabout” sounds a bit Aussie (if that is a correct term.
Above Images are from two out of three LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) cameras LASCO2 and LASCO 3 installed on the SOHO satellite.
A coronagraph is a special type of telescope that uses a solid disk (“occulter” or “occulting disk”) to actually cover up the Sun itself, completely blocking direct sunlight, and allowing us to see the atmosphere around the outside of the Sun (known as the “corona”).
SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) is a European Space Agency spacecraft launched on 2 December 1995, to study the Sun. It has also discovered over 4,000 comets.
thank you very much for the acronym details…many of us readers need this
And the brief descriptions of the equipment.
You are welcome.
We have already major geomagnetic storm, it could be from one of the flairs preceding main eruption.
Aurora watching opportunity, and effects on Canadian electricity grid and transpolar airlines routes.
Is this why it’s trying to snow today? And another snow for Saturday?
Have a nice weekend, Vuk, and thanks for the solar stuff!
I’m thinking instant sun tan. Wait for it.
SolarHam Space Weather and Amateur Radio Website http://www.solarham.net/ Always a great resource.
SolarHam has great detail!
More eye candy at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts
So, when’s it going to arrive? Well you might ask. CME scoreboard
To facilitate a direct answer to the question, the current prediction for Earth impact (of at least some part of the CME particulate shock wave, obviously not associated EM radiation) is 2022-04-02T05:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h), according to the link that commieBob provided.
Notice that’s a bit more than three days away (USA Pacific daylight time at time of this post) and also note the current ± 7 hour uncertainty on arrival time. Expected better refinement of that estimate in the next several days.
At time of this post, the range of predicted CME shock wave arrival times at Earth, based on various methods now being applied, range from a low of 2022-03-31T05:00Z (already in the past) to high of 2022-04-02T12:41Z.
Update from the website commieBob originally linked above.
At time of this post, the range in remaining time-to-impact-on-Earth of the shock wave of the above-referenced CME is from a low of 26.4 hours to a high of 62.9 hours, with an average time of 46.9 hours based on the five different predictive methods being employed.
As before, this update from the website commieBob originally linked above.
You can watch the CME(s) predicted progression here (h/t Tony Phillips):
I produce the following image every 5 minutes to keep up everyday with spaceweather.
The Ap forecast shown for tomorrow is 58, with a 55% chance of strong-extreme G3 storm.
The same active region that produced the X-flare yesterday has also been flaring C and M-flares over the previous few days along with a few CMEs; the leading edge just arrived:
The origin of the minor CME impact last night was discussed in the most recent Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE) newsletter linked below, a very detailed explanation. I highly recommend a subscription to the newsletter.
The X-flare and it’s CME will be reported in the next edition, so sign up for it.
Another M-flare today, M9.7, unless it’s upgraded to an X1; w/DRAP blackout map:
Just wondering if this particular CME is on a course to directly impact Earth, and if so will it qualify as a BOHICA event*?
*ref Carrington Event of 1859
Flares in the lower scale of the X range are not that unusual during sunspot maxima.
“Cliver and Svalgaard ‘conservatively concluded that the Carrington flare was a >X10 SXR
event’ and suggested that it would have ranked high among the largest ~100 flares of the previous ~150 years.” (source: The 1859 space weather event revisited: limits of extreme activity, available at https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/pdf/2013/01/swsc130015.pdf )
So, the X1.3-class solar flare discussed in the above article is “chump change” relative to the Carrington flare of 1859 (i.e., ~10% or less energy).
We need far more Grid Connections with Bird Choppers to create a magnificent Carrington event
So no roasted hot dogs this time? Durn, and I was so hoping. Oh, well, maybe the next eclipse in my neighborhood….
Old King Sol may be angry…at being ignored as the ruler of earth’s climate…in particular his anger may be directed at the CO2 warmists.
Well, as the saying goes, “Rain falls on the just and unjust alike.”
But according to the Universal Law of Dust, light dust only falls on dark objects and dark dust only falls on light objects.
I thought that was the rule of pet hair.
Not in Spain.
Just what the world needs! Like Faux Joe ain’t enough already.
People using help desks located in the Far East (Philippines, India, etc) will notice an increase in call breakups. It’s bad enough when they are not native speakers, now the solar system distorts it even more.
How long before the CME reaches us?
And how much tinfoil should we buy? Will I need to cover the entire roof?
Thank god I’m wearing a mask.
I would have thought 150m kms would be enough social distancing from our source of everything…
That seems a rather uncertain report compared to normal CME reporting. “circumstantial”? “apparently”?
Also, not due to the 2nd April? Are we SURE this was X class? That’s more like C-class pressure behind the CME.
Or am I thinking of the particles from the flare?
It looks like the Parker Solar probe is currently about 106,500,000 km from the sun (just inside the orbit of Venus); I wonder how well shielded it is from a CME when it makes a close approach (the last one was about 6,160,000 km from the sun).
Could be the impetus for a communications blackout- back up your computer.
Will it be blamed on “climate change?” Human CO2 causes CMEs . Bad carbon.
Coronal mass ejection … and this irresponsible does not even wear a mask.
How would an X-class CME direct hit affect Bitcoin or other crypto currencies?
That could get interesting.
Solar activity is increasing rapidly.
A geomagnetic storm, even of G3 class (Kp 7), may occur today.
Jet stream strength at high latitudes will increase. La Niña will strengthen.
I’m waiting for an X-45
French vineyards again threatened by overnight frosts.
So, Anthony, are we in for another Huntington Event?
Sorry, I meant a Carrington Event. Either way, will I have to turn off all my electronic devices?
If it is a carrington event it won’t matter if they are off or on.
Carrington was X-45, a LONG way to go to hit that level. One is certainly inevitable eventually, but who knows when?
Beautiful photos. Thanks, Watts.