From the University of Sheffield via Eurekalert:
Professor Edward Hanna and PhD student Richard Hall, from the University of Sheffield’s Department of Geography, are part of a select group of international climate scientists investigating links between Arctic climate change and extreme weather in the northern mid-latitudes.
They have found that while it is too soon to know for certain whether the Arctic played a role in persistent cold events during the extreme wet UK winter of 2013/14 and recent USA East Coast winters, new studies are adding to the growing weight of evidence linking increased Arctic temperatures with changes in mid-latitude weather patterns.
The research published in the Journal of Climate by Professor James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and authors from North America, Asia and Europe, including Professor Hanna and Richard Hall, paints a picture of links that vary by region and season.
Arctic temperatures are increasing two to three times faster than those at the mid-latitudes. Some scientists have suggested that warming Arctic temperatures contribute to weaker upper level westerly winds and a wavier jet stream. This wavier path may have caused cold weather conditions to stall over the eastern seaboard and midwest United States during recent winters, according to these theories.
Professor Hanna and Richard Hall note increased variability of the jet stream in winter and high pressure over Greenland, which has given more variable UK winters in the last few years. This includes the exceptionally stormy winter of 2013/14 which could have been partly influenced by climate change in the Arctic.
Professor Hanna said: “Our work presents tantalising new evidence of links between global warming, which is enhanced in high northern latitudes, and recent extreme winter weather events in the UK and further afield, as well as a timely review of much recent literature which has appeared in this important field of research. However, since the climate system is highly complex, many missing parts of the puzzle remain and much further work needs to be done.”
Professor Overland, lead author of the paper The melting Arctic and mid-latitude weather patterns: Are they connected? added: “We are in the pre-consensus stage of a theory that links continued warming of the Arctic with some severe weather events.”
A way to advance research from a pre-consensus stage is to further investigate the meandering jet stream and the connection between the warmer Arctic and the negative phase of an index showing the dominant pattern of sea level air pressure in the Arctic.
“We are where other major theories such as plate tectonics and El Niño were before they were widely accepted,” said Professor Overland.
“We need a Grand Science Challenge to advance weather forecasting abilities and climate change prediction.”
New studies on the changing Arctic together with additional Arctic observations will improve the ability to make forecasts for the mid-latitudes, helping millions of people better plan for the future and take steps to be more resilient in the face of extreme weather.
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NOTE: The press release is rather poor, not giving the name of the paper nor the DOI, something very basic. And, I don’t see it in the early releases at JoC. Anyone have a link to it?
UPDATE: Thanks to OKS – http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00822.1
I’m beginning to come to the conclusion that the Brits should just shut down all of their universities and stop pretending they’re involved in education, never mind science. Sad really.
There is one problem with this report: It’s total Bull Shit, Trash it.
One more set of ignoramuses who did not do their homework. In my 2011 paper [1], which they paid no attention to, I explained exactly how and when Arctic warming got started, what happened before it began, why it proceeds faster than their worthless models predict, and why greenhouse warming as a cause is ruled out by laws of physics. To summarize my findings: Arctic warming started at the turn of the twentieth century after two thousand years of slow, linear cooling. It cannot be greenhouse warming because there was no increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide when it started. In case you did not know, laws of physics demand that in order to start greenhouse warming you must simultaneously increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This did not happen as the Keeling curve shows. Arctic warming began as a result of a change in the pattern of North Atlantic Ocean currents at the turn of the century that started to carry warm Gulf Stream water into the Arctic Ocean. It is an oceanic process that is much faster and quite impossible to simulate with worthless climate models set up to explain an imaginary greenhouse warming. The warming was not steady but was interrupted in mid-century by a thirty year cooling period. We din’t know its cause but whar has happened in nature cab gappen again, A repeat cooling like that can werack havoc with Arctuc transportation abd development. There was alsoi an ubusual warm period in 2007 that was caused by nirthward winds carrying warm water north across the Bering Strait.
[1] Arno Arrak, “Arctic Warming Is Not Greenhouse Warming” E&E 22(8):1069-1083 (2011)
In he mean time a massive offensive is going on to turn the Paris Climate meeting into a success.
Initiative go from forcing pension funds to stop investments in fossil fuel related stocks and hit their capital into “green funds (good luck with that) to a relentless relentless media campaign with news clips, documentaries, talk, dog and pony shows, all recycling the alarmist climate clap trap we already have seen passing by over the past 30 years.
The problem we have today is the fact that Dr. Goebels, Hitler’s Propaganda minister hit the nail on the head with a least one claim: If you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes the truth.
Now even the Pope swapped his religion and has become the latest animist three huger to join the troops.
I tell you that this is not boding well and I won’t be surprised if they make unexpected progress at the Paris Meeting.
We really need to find an effective treatment for this collective madness before we find ourselves in a Green Nazi state.
Critical blogs will not stop the zealots.
We have to start thinking out of the box.
The only light in the tunnels I can see is the current state of our economies.
Nothing has been learned from the financial crises of 2007/8 and the Quantitive Easing policies in Japan, the US and now in Europe have completely failed to kick start our economies.
Over the past years 60 million jobs have been lost and 3.6 trillion in GDP has been destroyed.
Rising debt and shrinking economic performance is a bad combination.
Prepare for the roof coming down.
It is an inevitable unstoppable process that will wipe out banks but also bankrupt entire nations.
The positive not is that It will also wreck the gravy train funding the Eco Maniacs.
The other positive is that we have mother nature on our side.
There is nothing more hilarious than a bunch of Global Warming Zealots protesting against fossil fuels in two feet of snow freezing their asses off.
“There is nothing more hilarious than a bunch of Global Warming Zealots protesting against fossil fuels in two feet of snow freezing their asses off.”
Well, maybe one thing more hilarious…
http://www.synthstuff.com/mt/archives/2013/12/20131229-ship-stuck-ice.jpg
Many good points.
My greatest fear is that the “Climate Crisis” will be leveraged by a strong man, just as the “Economic Crisis” was leveraged by the Nazis. History does repeat and it does rhyme. Just like the climate….
Two graphics here:
http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/11184/Research-needed-to-resolve-connections-between-Arctic-warming-and-severe-weather.aspx
With one of them, does it explain the Pacific Blob?
The jet stream is an interest issue because before WWII we did nit even know it existed. Now its hard to believe something what could have large impact could be unknown for so long , but is not that usual when it comes to weather.
Often the science has to catch up with observations from the public . And to give you idea of how much is still ‘problematic’ you still cannot , despite the vast resources throw at it and many years of research, get a weather forecast worth dam for more than 72 hours ahead .
And yet on this sea of the poorly know they managed to build a mountain of ‘settled science’ using approaches little better than ‘head you lose tails I win ‘ and models which have the predictive ability of pine cones. They should be congratulated .
While there may be a link between arctic temps and the extreme flooding the UK had last year, why was there no link between artic temps and the lack of extreme flooding the previous year, or the extreme snowfall in 2009/2010/2011 that was actively predicted to never happen again due to AGW?
Only stands to reason that these pHd students need jobs. So they create a “Climate” so they can be gainfully employed.
“They have found that while it is too soon to know for certain whether the Arctic played a role in persistent cold events during the extreme wet UK winter of 2013/14 and recent USA East Coast winters,”
Well of course it was persistently mild and wet Jan-Feb 2014 in the UK. Primarily because of the warm “blob” in the northeast Pacific forcing the jet stream flow pattern to drop the Arctic cold in the northeast US when the Arctic Oscillation went negative, giving a simultaneous stormy mild and wet flow to the UK.
Negative AO&NAO episodes drive both the Arctic outbreaks and the Arctic warming, and are solar driven at down to near daily scales. I made long range solar based forecasts for negative Arctic Oscillation episodes and northeast US cold hits, from 7 Jan 2014 for 7-8 weeks, 10 Nov 2014 for 2 weeks, 26 Dec 2014 for 3 weeks, and 18 Mar 2015 for 3 weeks.
“They have found that while it is too soon to know for certain whether the Arctic played a role in persistent cold events during the extreme wet UK winter of 2013/14 and recent USA East Coast winters”
ROTFLOL, unless cold air comes from the Tropics… The Arctic does play a role during boreal winters… Funny how they avoid to mention Francis in the PR.
Holdren from the Whitehouse also weighed in on this topic when he said,
“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues,” Holdren asserts.
There is just one problem with this statement . There have been regular extreme cold periods throughout North American history and these were happening when global warming was not an issue . Holdren never explains these inconsistencies in his theory. There were similar cold periods 1900-1930 and again 1940 1980 . Matter of fact natural cyclic periods of cold and warm climate go back as far as our climate records go . So blaming every current weather event whether warm , cold or windy on global warming is just bad science and smells more of a political statement to support for the current president’s climate agenda than sound science that is supported with good research and climate history
Environment Canada reports that winters in the Canadian extreme Arctic including Arctic Tundra , Mountains and Fiords have been getting colder for 5 years in a row since 2010 . The 2015 winter was -0.2 C below normal and the temperature departure or anomaly was 6.2 C colder than 2010. Rather than being the warmest as was the case in 2010 , 2015 winter dropped dramatically to 40th warmest in 68 years , so the temperatures in this part of the Arctic are clearly dropping.. Cold Arctic means cold temperatures for North AMERICA and United States as was the case 1940-1980 and not due to global warming at all . That theory is just nonsense.
The current cooler weather in United States and most of North America has nothing to with global warming despite the politically tainted science that comes from the alarmists.
I believe that we could be headed for another natural cool phase like we had 1940-1980 and it seems to start in North America first. That last cool cycle started as follows:
• Arctic starts to cool after 1938
• PDO pattern starts to decline from mostly warm( positive ) phase pattern after 1941
• Cooler temperatures start in western North America after about 1935/1940
• PDO goes mostly negative 1944
• North Pacific SST still warm1940-1960 while PDO is negative or cool mode
• Cooler temperatures in Eastern North America after 1945/ 1950
• Eastern Canada starts to cool after 1950 ( almost 10 years after western Canada)
• AO goes mostly negative 1950
• Europe and Russia starts to cool by 1950 (except a brief cold period 1939/1942)
• Mexico temperatures start to decline after 1950
• AMO goes negative 1965-1995
• Cold temperatures trough in the 1970,s
• No net warming( A PAUSE) between 1940’s and 1980’s
http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/climate_change_global_warming.php
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2015/05/22/4239285.htm
I am blaming oxygen. Who is it providing these people with oxygen? Perhaps it’s nitrous?
The first encountered pathology to increased incursions of extreme cold into more southern latitudes must be excluded before new theories are proposed.
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/weather_climate_patterns.html
There are lots of reports regarding natural influences on extreme weather. The indirect reference in the posted research above to anthropogenic Arctic warming is simply an example of biased-driven type 1 and 2 errors commonly made by climate scientists riding the gravy train.
http://srmo.sagepub.com/view/the-sage-dictionary-of-social-research-methods/n212.xml
http://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs00376-013-2296-8&hl=en&sa=T&ct=res&cd=5&ei=YZZgVcnwFtGcqwHTnoC4Aw&scisig=AAGBfm0QzpWdC0iXyejRY2HTERMCZIejRQ&nossl=1&ws=1600×747
Here is a good explanation why US gets cold in the winter. It has little to with global warming
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-is-a-polar-vortex/21793077