The Week That Was: 2015-04-18 (April 18, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Energy Not Heat, Exclusively: A source of frustration for members of SEPP, and others, are the efforts by some of classifying these skeptics as denying the existence of the greenhouse effect, often by claiming that the greenhouse effect is contrary to the second law of thermodynamics. The law applies to the flow of heat (thermal energy) from a warmer body to a cooler one. The atomic theory of heat (thermal energy) is based on the motion of atoms and/or molecules. Though it may use atoms, the transfer of energy does not require them. There forms of energy other than heat.
Many global warming skeptics question the claim that increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by a few molecules per one million will cause significant global warming. The theoretical calculations of how much warming are based on dry air (no water vapor). These calculations cannot be directly applied to the globe where the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere varies widely – from about 0% to about 4%. As the percentage of water vapor increases, the influence of additional carbon dioxide diminishes.
One can experience the greenhouse effect of water vapor by spending a few summer evenings in the rural Southeast US and compare them with summer evenings in the rural Southwest US, away from irrigation, at a similar latitude and elevation. In the Southeast, which is humid (has significant water vapor), the evenings cool slowly. In the Southwest, initially the evenings may be hotter, but they cool more quickly. The difference is an example of the greenhouse effect as it applies to water vapor, with a greater effect in the Southeast than in the Southwest. [Last week, Roy Spencer presented the evening greenhouse effect as measured where he lives in Alabama, Southeastern US.]
Recognizing the difference in cooling due to a difference in the greenhouse effect by water vapor is not contrary to the second law of thermodynamics because the law applies to transfer of heat rather than all forms of energy. Transfer of heat, requires atoms and/or molecules. The transfer of electromagnetic energy from the sun to the earth, through empty space, does not. The transfer of reflected light (electromagnetic energy) from the cold moon to the warm earth is not contrary to the second law of thermodynamics.
One can experience that energy transfer is not the same as heat transfer in a modern kitchen by placing a warm glass of water in a cold microwave and turning on the microwave. The water will boil long before the microwave will warm. Those skeptical that a small increase in the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere will cause significant global warming are not necessarily denying the greenhouse effect and should not be classified as such. They grasp the difference between energy and heat. See link: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/why-summer-nighttime-temperatures-dont-fall-below-freezing/
Quote of the Week: “When people learn no tools of judgment and merely follow their hopes, the seeds of political manipulation are sown.” Stephen Jay Gould [H/t Tim Ball]
Number of the Week: 60 Years
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The three past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, and John Kerry, are not candidates. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on May 8 [New Date]. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
Climate and Health: As discussed in the April 11 TWTW, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has released a draft of a Climate and Health Assessment for public comment. The document states “Do Not Cite or Quote.” The next few TWTWs will certain sections of this report, emphasizing topics that are not substantiated or contrary to public health history. These will be used to prepare a succinct response from SEPP, due on June 8.
The first section of the report deals with “Temperature-Related Deaths and Illness.” It states that days that are hotter than normal in the summer or colder than normal in the winter can cause increased levels of illness and death by compromising the body’s ability to regulate its temperature or by inducing direct or indirect cardiac complications. Given the wide range of temperatures that are experienced in most of the United States on a daily basis, the statement prompts the question: “What is normal?”
The key findings in this section are: 1) Increases in Temperature Related Deaths, due to warming [Very Likely, High Confidence]; 2) Illness and Deaths Are Related to Deviations from Seasonal Average; 3) Changing Tolerance to Extreme Heat and 4) Some Populations Are at Greater Risk. There is no issue with the fourth finding.
The first finding creates significant issues. Even though the US government spent over $35 billion on climate science research from fiscal year 1993 to FY 2013, federal agencies have failed to create a global climate model, verified and validated, for predicting future temperatures. Without a valid climate model, temperature forecasts are highly speculative. Thus, the core of the entire USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment is speculative. Labeling such statements with terms such as Very Likely or High Confidence is pure fiction. There is no objective method to assess likelihood or confidence.
Further, there is no indication that the government agencies are attempting to create a valid climate model that has predictive power (skill). Based on its past reports, what we will probably see from the USGCRP is speculation passed on as knowledge. In the future, TWTW will focus on the more highly questionable issues presented by the USGCRP, even though the report must be regarded as speculation. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
April Fools Award: Thus far, there have been 12 nominees for the SEPP April Fools award (see above). The prospective honorees include John Beal, a former EPA official who flimflammed EPA managers and the entire US on air pollution, water pollution and global warming and is now in jail for pretending to be a CIA official. Tom Steyer made the list for financing political candidates who oppose carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Stephan Lewandowsky was honored for suggesting the tendency to believe in conspiracy theories predicted skepticism about human caused global warming/climate change, published in Psychological Science and PLoS. EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy was honored for obvious reasons, including being a leader of the 13 agencies in USGCRP (above). Al Gore received the honor because to leave him off the list of recipients would be a crime. US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz was also honored by a nomination.
Due to travel and computer maintenance commitments, the other nominees will be presented in the May 2 TWTW and the voting will close on May 8.
The nomination of Ernest Moniz was by a recently retired chair of an engineering department of a branch of a noted New England University. He states:
“In brief, when the Secretary of Energy is more interested in developing energy policy that supports CO2 emission targets than producing reliable energy, we have a problem. With Kerry, Obama or Jackson you can sum it up to ignorance — they are not educated in science and they surround themselves with supposed experts, who they choose to trust. With Moniz, you cannot — he has a renowned academic pedigree. Yet in spite of his obvious intelligence and education, he believes that despite the fact that computer simulations cannot predict the drag on a golf ball based on first principles, they can solve the vastly more complex problem of the earth’s climate, which includes inter-related thermodynamic, heat transfer and chemistry in a multi-phase domain set in a non-inertial reference frame, which is over 10^5 times the size of the golf ball.”
Mr Moniz spoke at a graduation at the university:
“It was a painful experience for me. Rather than giving the students useful words of advice, he spent his entire speech expounding on the dangers of climate change:
“Based on his willful ignorance and in a position of great importance, I can think of no better candidate for this prestigious award.”
Standing Tall: One US government entity that makes projections has not succumbed to that desire to pretend it can forecast the future or has bent its projections to the president’s policy – the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Annual Energy Outlook, 2015 – projections to 2040 states:
“This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies.”
“Projections by EIA are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used for any particular case. The AEO2015 Reference case projection is a business-as-usual trend estimate, given known technology and technological and demographic trends. EIA explores the impacts of alternative assumptions in other cases with different macroeconomic growth rates, world oil prices, and resource assumptions. The main cases in AEO2015 generally assume that current laws and regulations are maintained throughout the projections. Thus, the projections provide policy-neutral baselines that can be used to analyze policy initiatives.”
In spite of the Administration’s initiative to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions, in its new Outlook the EIA projections show little change in US CO2 emissions to 2040. Under the scenario of high economic growth, use of coal for electrical generation does not drop significantly. However, in the general “Reference Case”, use of coal falls from 39% of electrical generation (2013) to 34% of electrical generation. The biggest increases are natural gas (27% to 31%) and renewables (13% to 18%). Oil price does not have much of an influence on electrical generation, because in the US less than 1% of electrical generation comes from petroleum and other liquids. See links under Energy Issues – US and Return of King Coal?
World Bank or Asian Bank? China has founded the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. According to reporter Eduardo Porter of the New York Times, American diplomats are upset that dozens of countries are joining China’s new infrastructure investment bank, a potential rival to the World Bank and other financial institutions backed by the United States. The reason is simple. The West’s environmental policies are blocking their access to energy. The World Bank came out with a report “Turning down the heat: Confronting the new Climate Normal.” It was based on unsubstantiated projections from global climate models. The World Bank announced it would not finance coal-fired power plants.
This is not the first time that the West has tried to impose its environmental policies on others, to their detriment. Without supporting evidence it was harmful to humans, in the 1970s Western governments banned the use of DDT, and tried to have it banned world-wide. Yet, it was previously shown that the most cost-effective way of controlling malaria in tropical countries was by the indoor spraying of huts with DDT twice a year. Western governments did not consider the consequences of such a ban. Malaria rates in countries which implemented the ban exploded, with millions dying prematurely. Western politicians and diplomats may ignore these efforts, but there is no reason to assume they have been forgotten. See links under Funding Issues.
Wind Bursts: A new hypothesis has been proposed for the failure of a significant El Niño in 2014 to cause a significant warming predicted by some in government agencies– wind bursts may suppress El Niños. The entire effort to explain the lack of warming is becoming silly. This explanation is another natural influence not considered in the IPCC’s 95% certainty of human cause. See links under Models v. Observations.
Death of Enron – Finally? Writing in Master Resource, on occasion, Robert Bradley Jr, re-caps how Ken Lay of Enron was able to convince many Greens to support natural gas as well as support wind and solar power for electrical generation. The legislators in Texas succumbed to Lay’s persuasion and instituted significant renewable energy mandates, in the form of a Renewable Portfolio Standard in 1999 and a Renewable Energy Zone for power lines. In spite of intense opposition from environmentalists and renewable energy industry groups, the Texas Senate voted to end these mandates. Among arguments used to keep them, was that their removal will shake the industry’s confidence in Texas’ business climate. As if an industry that needs mandates and subsidies to survive is indicative of a strong business climate. See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever and Environmental Industry
No TWTW Next Week: Due to travel commitments and the need for computer maintenance, there will be no TWTW the weekend of April 25. TWTW is expected to resume the weekend of May 2.
Additions and Corrections: Immediately after the March 11 TWTW was distributed, numerous readers pointed out that it confused carbolic acid and carbonic acid. Carbolic acid is an organic disinfectant, unrelated to carbon dioxide. Carbonic acid, a weak acid, is created by mixing carbon dioxide with water. When raising some freshwater tropical fish, such as discus, brightly colored fish from the Amazon, enthusiasts often create carbonic acid by bubbling carbon dioxide in the aquarium.
There has been no clarification on the main point, how can researchers declare that the oceans acidified by the volcanic release of carbon dioxide from the region of north-central Russia called the Siberian Traps? The more generally accepted view by geologists is that the lowering of pH was from enormous amounts of sulfur dioxide converted to sulfuric acid, a far stronger acid than carbonic acid.
TWTW deeply appreciates such corrections and the efforts of its readers for making them.
Number of the Week: 60 Years. April 12th marked to 60th anniversary of the polio vaccine. An ancient disease, major outbreaks occurred in Western Europe and the US in the 19th century. By the mid-20th century, polio was one of the most feared childhood diseases in the US. The wide adoption of the vaccine and the subsequent suppression of the disease world-wide was a triumph of public health. One wonders how members of the anti-vaccine movement would react to a resurgence of this disease. See link under Other News that May Be of Interest
Please note that articles not linked or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Obama Expected to Bind US to CO2 Reduction at Paris Climate Meeting This Year
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Apr 16, 2015
[SUMMARY: We expect major emitters to follow the China-model – no decrease in global CO2 emissions. Full article in full TWTW, see web site.]
2. U.S. Could Eliminate Net Energy Imports by 2030
Report forecasts oil, natural-gas production will continue to rise over next five years
By Alison Sider, WSJ, Apr 14, 2015
[SUMMARY: In discussing the new EIA report, Administrator Adam Sieminski says “Advanced technologies are reshaping the U.S. energy economy.” “The projections show the potential to eliminate net U.S. energy imports in the 2020 to 2030 time frame.” According to the article: “The government appears to be even more bullish about U.S. oil production this year than it was last year. Despite a nearly 50% drop in the price of crude-oil since then, the government’s expectation for oil production growth is even more robust than in last year’s energy forecast
“Cheap, plentiful natural gas should also be a boon to heavy industry and manufacturing inside the U.S., the EIA said. Manufacturers of chemicals, metals and pulp and paper products are particularly energy intensive and will benefit from America’s abundant gas supply. Low-price natural gas will also help keep electricity prices in check, which should help industries that use large quantities of power.”]
3. Low Prices Cool Boom in U.S. Oil Production
Crude production remains strong, but the U.S. may be at, or near, an oil-output peak
By Russell Gold, WSJ, Apr 16, 2015
[SUMMARY: According to the article: “The federal Energy Department predicted this week that two of the three booming oil fields—the Bakken and the Eagle Ford in South Texas—would post decreases in April and May, though it forecast that a third big oil field, the Permian Basin in West Texas, would keep expanding. The agency’s weekly tally of all U.S. crude production shows declines in two of the last three weeks.”
“It remains unclear whether America will start pumping a lot less oil or just stop adding thousands of new barrels each month. Also unknown is what would happen if crude prices begin to climb again after several months of trading between $45 and $55 a barrel. U.S. oil edged up to $56.71 on Thursday, the highest level in 2015 but far below the triple-digit levels of less than a year ago.”
OPEC has reported that “it believes U.S. output of oil and other liquid petroleum products will peak between April and June at 13.65 million barrels a day, down about 60,000 barrels a day from the peak it forecast in March. OPEC sees total U.S. production falling 0.4% to 13.59 million barrels a day by the final three months of the year.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration, a forecaster for the U.S. government, said this week that it believes U.S. oil output will continue to grow through 2020. It also predicted “strong growth” in crude production in most economic scenarios.
Even if American companies choose not to drill at current oil prices, they can move quickly if prices rebound, said Joseph Stanislaw of JAStanislaw Group LLC, an energy advisory firm. U.S. drillers’ ability to pump lots of crude from shale “caught the world by surprise,” he said. “And part of that surprise is that it is not as expensive as most people thought and is more durable than most people thought.”
In short, it is unclear what will happen to total US production in 2015. Elsewhere, it is reported that 100,000 jobs have been lost related to the oil industry. However, if oil prices increase, US production can rebound quickly.]
4. The Dirty Secret of Obama’s Carbon Plan
Taking one-third of U.S. coal-fired power plants off the grid by 2020 simply isn’t workable. Here’s why.
By Warner Baxter, WSJ, Apr 12, 2015
[SUMMARY: According to the article write by the CEO of Ameren Corp, an electricity and natural gas producer:
“The Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan, a proposed regulation limiting carbon emissions from existing coal-fired plants, threatens to jeopardize the reliability that Americans and businesses have come to depend upon. The EPA proposal calls for states to cut emissions by 30% from 2005 levels by 2030. It also imposes aggressive interim targets starting in 2020 that will test states’ ability to meet these standards without disrupting service. For example, 39 states must achieve more than 50% of their final target by 2020.
“Reliable power requires decades of careful planning. The appropriate amount and type of round-the-clock generation capacity, transmission and distribution lines must be finely balanced in advance to ensure the lights go on when a switch is flipped anywhere in the U.S. The EPA plan will significantly impair that planning process.
“The EPA’s proposal is causing concern among those who provide electricity for a living. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission held an event in St. Louis on March 31, the last in a series of conferences on the implications of the plan. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., a nonprofit oversight group, has said the EPA plan could constitute “a significant reliability challenge, given the constrained time period for implementation.”
“These concerns are driven in large part by the planned retirement, mostly thanks to the EPA’s carbon plan, of about one-third of America’s coal-fired power plants by 2020. This represents enough generating capacity to supply the residential electricity of about 57 million Americans. That’s a lot of power being taken off the grid in a very short period.
“It takes years to site, permit and construct replacement power plants, and EPA’s compliance timeline does not account for this reality. For example, if a new gas-fired power plant must be built to meet the EPA’s 2020 interim target, all permitting and development would need to be completed by 2017. But that is impossible because state compliance plans might not even be submitted to the EPA until 2017 or 2018, and the agency has said it may take up to a year to approve them.
“Beyond that, opening new natural-gas plants, as well as operating existing plants at higher levels, will require new pipeline infrastructure, and building natural-gas pipelines often takes five years or longer. More transmission lines will likely be needed to connect the new capacity to the grid. These projects can take 5-15 years. The point is that the 2020 interim targets are simply not achievable.
“… two safeguards should be added to the plan. First, it should include a mechanism to deal with reliability issues before a state’s plan is implemented. Such a mechanism would require the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to examine the effects of state-submitted plans on regional reliability. If issues are identified, the state should be allowed to resubmit a revised plan and potentially adjust its targets to maintain reliability.
“Second, the EPA should incorporate a reliability safety valve that would operate throughout the compliance period if unforeseen events—such as tornadoes destroying a wind farm or extreme cold weather—require coal plants to operate at unanticipated levels. Owners of these coal plants need assurance that they will never be penalized for keeping the lights on.”
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Solar Cycle 24 Continues To Be Quietest In Almost 200 Years…Sun’s Polar Fields Weakest Since 1900
By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt Translated, edited by P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 12, 2015
Science and power
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 13, 2015
“Are we really arguing that science should become a way of sidestepping the democratic process and that scientists should not be accountable to the public that pays their salaries?”
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
My Letter to Sir Peter Gluckman [The Chief Scientific Adviser to the New Zealand Government.]
By Vincent Gray, NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No 341, Apr 18, 2015
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt
The New Inquisition
By Thomas Sowell, Townhall, Apr 14, 205
“The head of the National Academy of Sciences has chimed in, saying: ‘Scientists must disclose their sources of financial support to continue to enjoy societal trust and the respect of fellow scientists.’”
[SEPP Comment: Should trust be reserved for government, only?]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Heartland President Still Waiting for Apology from Sen. Whitehouse
By Joe Bast, Somewhat Reasonable, Apr 13, 2015
Opinion/Letter: UVa keeps secret what it shouldn’t
By Charles Battig, The Daily Progress, Apr 15, 2015
Silencing skeptics – financing alarmists
Will Congress and media examine government, environmentalist and university alarmist funding?
By Paul Driessen, SPPI, Apr 13, 2015
“To the Museums of Science and Natural History – An Open Response
By Various Scientists, Posted on CO2 Science, Apr 16, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Three Reasons Obama Administration Almost Certainly Wrong on Climate Change
By Anthony J. Sadar and JoAnn Truchan, American Thinker, Apr 14, 2015
“Perhaps the best reason to be skeptical of political grandstanding of certainty in science is that the objectivity of science is destroyed by the subjectivity of arrogance. Much worse than the obvious ruse, ‘Trust us, we’re politicians,’ is the more subtle ploy, ‘Trust us, we’re scientists.’”
Rebranding the EPA’s clean air agenda
It’s no longer about saving the polar ice caps
By Chris Horner, Washington Times, Apr 13, 2015
Defending the Orthodoxy
Draft Climate & Health Assessment Available for Public Review
By Staff Writers, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t CATO]
Report: USGCRP Climate & Health Assessment
“Thirteen Agencies, One Vision: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science”
ExxonMobil’s Dangerous Business Strategy
By Jeffrey Sachs, Project Syndicate, Apr 17, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Mr. Sachs doesn’t mention that the global climate models have glaring deficiencies and the hypothesis that CO2 is the control knob of the earth’s temperatures is in shambles.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Advection: The Forgotten Weather Factor
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Apr 14, 2015
Challenging polar bear fearmongering about Arctic sea ice extent for March 2015
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 12, 2015
Environmentalism and Envy
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Apr 14, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to Climate Change Statement, Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M, Nov 14, 2014
[SEPP Comment: The Atmospheric Sciences of Texas A&M statement claims that 1) Warming is occurring; 2) Humans are the cause and 3) “Business-as-usual” will result in a 2.5-7°F increase from the 1986-2005 baseline by the end of this century. No wonder Norman Rogers questions it!]
Polar bear habitat update: highly concentrated ice in eastern Hudson Bay this spring
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 14, 2015
The Climate Change War Heats Up
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Apr 15, 2015
On to Paris!
Climate Change’s False Illusion of Progress
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Apr 16, 2015
You Ought to Have a Look: “Sustainability” Not Sustainable
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Apr 17, 2015
The Paris Paradigm: The What is your ‘Skeptic Score’?
By David Swinehart, WUWT, Apr 16, 2015
Problems in the Orthodoxy
India: Star of the East, Defender of the West?
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 16, 2015
Obama Isolated As U.S. Allies Join China’s New Coal Bank
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Apr 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A collection of articles showing support for the bank which will help finance coal-fired power plants.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Climatologists and moral choices
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 17, 2015
“So my message to climatologists is this. If you are quietly working away at your climate models and publishing your papers then no blame can attach to you. But if you are calling for mitigation of climate change and demanding that politicians leap into action, you have made your moral/ethical choices. You have assessed the alternatives; you have chosen your discount rate and it is a low one. And as I have just pointed out this necessarily means accepting more harm now in order to avoid harm in the future.
“So when those present-day harms are pointed out to you, you must accept that they are the consequences of the choices you made.”
Hearing: President’s UN climate pledge
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 15, 2015
Judith Curry vs. Climate Alarmism (John and Jerry–are you listening?)
By Robert Bradley, Jr, Master Resource, Apr 16, 2015
“Recent data and research supports the importance of natural climate variability and calls into question the conclusion that humans are the dominant cause of recent climate change.”- Judith Curry, Congressional testimony of April 15, 2015 (see link)
“I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she thinks she’s doing, but it’s not helping the cause, or her professional credibility.” —Dr. Michael Mann, IPCC Lead Author, disclosed Climategate e-mail, May 30, 2008.
Dr. Judith Curry’s Testimony before the House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology Hearing on the President’s UN Climate Pledge
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 16, 2015
By Andrew Montford Bishop Hill, Apr 15, 2015
Link to manifesto: Eco-modernist Manifesto”
By 18 authors, April 2015
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Highlights of a Review of the Many Ways Corals Can Beat the Heat
Baker, A.C. 2014. Climate change: many ways to beat the heat for reef corals. Current Biology 24: 10.1016/j.cub.2014.11.014., Apr 15, 2015
The Capabilities of an Intertidal Crab Along a Latitudinal Gradient
Gaitan-Espitia, J.D., Bacigalupe, L.D., Opitz, T., Lagos, N.A.,Timmermann, T. and Lardies, M.A. 2014. Geographic variation in thermal physiological performance of the intertidal crab Petrolisthes violaceus along a latitudinal gradient. The Journal of Experimental Biology 217: 4379-4386. Apr 14, 2015
Two Millennia of Climate Change & the Fiscal Well-Being of China
Wei, Z., Fang, X. and Su, Y. 2014. Climate change and fiscal balance in China over the past two millennia. The Holocene 24: 1771-1784. Apr 13, 2015
A Recent Search for an OA Tipping Point of Coral Reef Calcifiers
Comeau, S., Edmunds, P.J., Spindel, N.B. and Carpenter, R.C. 2013. The responses of eight coral reef calcifiers to increasing partial pressure of CO2 do not exhibit a tipping point. Limnology and Oceanography 58: 388-398. Apr 9, 2015
“When it comes to coral reef responses to dreaded ocean acidification, climate alarmist projections of their demise a few short decades (or even centuries) from now are unsupported by the findings of this paper. And scare stories of tipping points in which reefs reach a point of no return beyond which calcification declines accelerate are equally unsupported.”
Models v. Observations
Science Under Siege: Max Planck Institute Study Shows Climate Models Severely Overstate Warming
Hamburg-Based Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology: Aerosols Cool Less Than Previously Thought
By Sebastian Lüning, Fritz Vahrenholt [Translated, edited by P Gosselin] No Tricks Zone, Apr 15, 2015
Alarmist Potsdam Institute Concedes: “Natural Variability Underestimated”…”WE ARE CURRENTLY FACING A COOLING PERIOD”!
By Dennis Ambler and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 16, 2015
Wind bursts strongly affect El Nino severity
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Apr 15, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Link to paper: Strong influence of westerly wind bursts on El Niño diversity
By Dake Chen, et al, Nature Geoscience, Apr 13, 2015
Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 2
By Nicholas Lewis, Climate Audit, Apr 13, 2015
“The main cause of long tails (uncertainty) in ECS (equilibrium climate sensitivity) and TCR studies based on observed multi-decadal warming is uncertainty as to the strength of aerosol forcing.”
[SEPP Comment: To obtain reasonable estimates, the influence of aerosols need to be estimated separately from the models estimating the influence of carbon dioxide. Such an effort may not be in the interests of the climate modelers.]
The Mysterious Explosion In U.S. Oil Reserves
Editorial, IBD, Apr 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Politicians taking advantage of the continued failure to distinguish between economically recoverable reserves, an accounting concept, and physical reserves.]
Fewer heatwaves for 9 million Australians in Sydney, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne –”thank CO2″!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 17, 2015
NCDC Hiding The Decline In US Temperatures By Data Tampering
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Apr 17, 2015
AMO And PDO Directly Affect The Weather, CO2 Does Not
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Apr 17, 2015
Experts: Hurricane activity at 45 year low, USA major hurricane drought almost a decade
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 15, 2015
Iceberg Armadas Didn’t Cause North Atlantic Cooling
By Staff Writers, Science 2.0, Apr 15, 2015
New paper finds long-term cooling of the Arctic over the past 4 million years & acceleration over past 1 million years
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Apr 9, 2015
Link to paper: The evolution of climatically driven weathering inputs into the western Arctic Ocean since the late Miocene: Radiogenic isotope evidence
By Dausmann, et al, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Mar 25, 2015
Strong evidence for ‘rapid climate change’ found in past millennia
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 15, 2015
The Little Ice Age In Iceland
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 17, 2015
The Holocene paleoenvironmental history of central European Russia reconstructed from pollen, plant macrofossil, and testate amoeba analyses of the Klukva peatland, Tula region
By Novenko, et al. Quaternary Research, Apr 11, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: More changing climate over the past 10,000 years, without human influence.]
Ron Clutz On The AMO
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 14, 2015
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
‘3D Cryosat’ tracks Arctic winter sea ice
By Jonathhan Amos, BBC, Apr 17, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: CryoSat was launched on 8 April 2010 by a Dnepr launch vehicle from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Four years of data is very thin to make grand statements such as the least ice ever, as made by NOAA and NASA-GISS.]
Data Plainly Show No Correlation Between Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations And Global Sea Ice!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 14, 2015
Sustainable Postponements…Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute Pushes “Ice-Free Arctic” Back To 2050!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 13, 2015
Satellite [and other] Monitoring Of Arctic Sea Ice Pre 1979
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Are there any empirically identifiable trends in Arctic sea ice?]
Spring ice alarm deflated – 2015 ice now as high as 2014 & Davis Strait highest since 1971
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 16, 2015
Climate change in Antarctica: Natural temperature variability underestimated – Cold spell superimposes man-made warming
By Staff Writers, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Apr 16, 2015 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
Link to paper: Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica
By Ludenscher, et al, Climate Dynamics, Apr 16, 2015
The study now published by the German team of scientists shows that man-made global warming has not been pausing – it was temporarily superimposed and therefore hidden by long-term natural climate fluctuations like in Antarctica. “Our estimates show that we are currently facing a natural cooling period – while temperatures nonetheless rise slowly but inexorably, due to our heating up the atmosphere by emitting greenhouse gas emissions,” explains Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Why the cooling? Why is warming assumed to be human caused (anthropogenic)?]
Two hundred years ago the most powerful eruption in modern history made itself felt around the world. It could happen again at almost any time
By Staff Writers, The Economist, Apr 11, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Put the acid on Great Barrier Reef doomsayers
By Patrick Moore, The Australian, Via SPPI, Apr 13, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The Greenpeace co-founder, now separated from the organization, pouring acid on so-called Ocean Acidification]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Flood damages in Europe to increase 200% by the end of the century, scientists warn
By Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, Apr 15, 2015
The new research makes a number of technical advances that improve the reliability of flood projections compared to previous studies, say the authors.
The researchers combine regional climate projections under the IPCC’s high emissions scenario with a complex simulation of the water cycle. This captures how quickly water disperses after falling as rain and how it cycles through terrain, soil, vegetation, the atmosphere, rivers and oceans.
[SEPP Comment: The “new and improved” research uses models that cannot get temperature forecasts right. Why assume they can get precipitation forecasts right?]
Surgeon General: ‘Climate Change Could Expose More People to Triggers That Cause Asthma’
By Barbara Hollingsworth, CNS News, Apr 10, 2010 [H/t Timothy Wise]
BBC joins Guardian divestment campaign
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Is the BBC confusing the falling price of oil with the Green divestment campaign, rather than the surge in production?]
Are energy companies sitting on unburnable reserves?
Are we approaching the twilight of the fossil fuel era?
By Roger Harrabin, BBC, Apr 16, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Media Miscommunication about the Blob
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 13, 2015
Link to paper: Causes and Impacts of the 2014 Warm Anomaly in the NE Pacific
By Bond, Cronin, Freeland, and Mantua, Apr 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: How two reasonable papers became a big, unreasonable media event – the Blob.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Oh noes! Fishy modeling study says ‘Fish and Chips’ to disappear in the UK
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 14, 2015
Fisherman Debunks Fishy Fish Scare
By Arnold Locker, The Times, Via GWPF, Apr 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above]
Claim: Arctic and Antarctic will melt “in the next decade
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 11, 2015
Surgeon General: ‘Climate Change Could Expose More People to Triggers That Cause Asthma’
By Barbara Hollingsworth, CNS News, Apr 10, 2010 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Warning over aerosol climate fix
Any attempts to engineer the climate are likely to result in “different” climate change, rather than its elimination, new results suggest.
By Simon Redfern, BBC, Apr 16, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: Amusing byline. Stopping climate change is a political invention, supported by a few politicized scientists.]
Questioning European Green
EU’s green energy debacle shows the futility of climate change policies
Ontario [Canada] will follow the EU at its peril — power rates will soar while industries depart
By Benny Peiser, Financial Post, Apr 14, 2015
The Price Of Green Energy: Manufacturers Investing Outside Germany
By Staff Writers, Metal Bulletin, Apr 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Economic stagnation is the future?]
Bjorn Lomborg gets funding for a new centre at UWA, howls and protests begin
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 18, 2015
A Call to Look Past Sustainable Development
By Eduardo Porter, New York Times, Apr 14, 2015
The Political Games Continue
Skeptical Climate Scientist Dismantles Dem Lawmaker’s Alarmism
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 15, 2015
“I found myself deeply troubled by Dr. Curry’s written and oral testimony,” Rep. Don Beyer, a Virginia Democrat, said during a hearing Thursday. “I found the testimony just full of internally conflicting facts and opinions.”
[SEPP Comment: Mr. Beyer has difficulty with facts and judgements that conflict with his opinions.]
Obama’s Climate Policy At Risk From Legal Challenges
By Barney Jopson, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Apr 15, 2015
Obama’s illegal coal regulations must be stopped
By Patrick Morrisey, Attorney General of West Virginia, Washington Examiner, Apr 16, 2015
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Even With Subsidies, Green Energy’s Future Is Dim [for US]
By John Merline, IBD, Apr 15, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Investment In Australian Renewable Energy Industry Plummets 90%
By Joshua Hill, Clean Technica, Apr 15, 2014
[SEPP Comment: No subsidies, no green jobs.]
[Texas] Senate Votes to End Renewable Energy Programs
By Jim Malewitz, Texas Tribune, Apr 14, 2015
“Today Sen. Troy Fraser snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” Tom “Smitty” Smith, director of the Texas office of the consumer safety group Public Citizen, said in a statement on Tuesday. “Since renewable energy is the least expensive way to reduce climate pollution, it could have been an important tool in our efforts to comply with pending federal rules.”
[SEPP Comment: Carbon dioxide is climate pollution?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Mercury Rule Statistics Smell Fishy
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 13, 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 14, 2015
“Much is left to the imagination, however. For example what we will use to heat and light our homes on still winter nights. Or what any of this will actually do to resolve rather than exacerbate the problem of fuel poverty.”
Clean-Energy Spending Drops 15% to Reach Lowest Level Since 2013
By Justin Doom, Bloomberg, Apr 10, 2015
Clean Energy Revolution Is Ahead of Schedule
By Noah Smith, Bloomberg, Apr 8, 2015
Of course, skeptics and opponents of the renewable revolution continue to downplay these remarkable developments.
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above. Will the results meet the projections?]
Germany’s On The Brink Of An Energy Crisis
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 13, 2015
More German power plant projects not viable – producer lobby
By Vera Eckert, Reuters, Apr 13, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Japan: Huge Blow To Climate Policy As Court Blocks Nuclear Power
By Kana Inagaki, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Apr 4, 2015
How China’s thirst for clean drinking water may raise its CO2 emissions
By Coco Liu, E&E, Via GWPF, Apr 13, 2015
“It is a fact that desalination is both energy- and carbon-intensive, but this issue has been largely ignored,”
Energy Issues — US
Annual Energy Outlook 2015 with projections to 2040
By Staff Writers, EIA, April 2015
EIA predicts little change in US carbon emissions to 2040
By Staff Writers, Next Big Future, Apr 15, 2015
Oil Boom Has Been Nice, But It Can’t Carry The Economy Alone
By Todd Buchholz, IBD, Apr 15, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
What’s Wrong With Fossil Fuel Divestment
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: If the Greens wish to squander their resources, no problem. A problem arises when the Greens demand that others do the same—squander their resources.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Energy Production on Standby Until Crude Oil Export Ban is Lifted
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Apr 8, 2015
Link to report: U.S. Energy Infrastructure Still Lacking
By Lloyd Bentsen, NCPA, Apr 6, 2015
Obama Administration Worries About Environmental Effect of Keystone Oil, Not Iranian Oil
By David Kreutzer, Daily Signal, Apr 14, 2015
Return of King Coal?
A Note on Coal
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 16, 2015
“But our coal might be even cleaner but for environmentalists. Yes—you read that right. Here’s something to ponder: which nation has more efficiency and lower CO2 emitting coal-fired power plants: the U.S. or China? The answer is . . . drum roll please . . . China! I just last week came across the astounding chart below in a World Bank report about China:”
EIA: Reports of Coal’s Death May Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Apr 14, 2015
Former UN climate chief Yvo de Boer defends coal finance
Politicians “too cowardly” to back carbon price, which would offer better climate benefits than attacking coal, says de Boer
By Megan Darby, RTCC, Apr 11, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Japan’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rose on Increase in Coal Power
By Chisaki Watanabe, Bloomberg, Apr 13, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Article filed under New Energy Finance!]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Forget Fukushima: China powering ahead with plans for new reactors
By Ben Dooley, The Japan Times, Apr 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Dysfunctional Politics, Red Tape ‘Turning EU Green Energy Into Zombie Industry’
By Pilita Clark, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Apr 12, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Nothing prevents the “zombie industry” from marching ahead without subsidies.]
Controversy Surrounding Wind Power’s Potential
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Apr 3, 2015
Link to report: Obama Administration Report Overstates Wind Power’s Potential, Understates Costs and Limitations
By Julian Morris, Reason Foundation, Mar 24, 2015
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
£1 billion lagoon that could be Britain’s pottiest ever green scheme
By Christopher Booker, Daily Mail, Apr 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
First Power-to-Gas Projects in U.S. Launched
By Thomas Overton, Power Mag, Apr 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: This is needed in the US where hydraulic fracturing is unlocking great stores of methane?]
Harvesting energy from electromagnetic waves
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Apr 16, 2015
Link to paper: Metamaterial electromagnetic energy harvester with near unity efficiency
By Thamer S. Almoneef and Omar M. Ramahi, Applied Physics Letters, [No Date]
Carbon dioxide capture and storage ‘mooted’ by new study of risks
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 13, 2015
California’s Drought: Whitewashing Government
By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, Apr 17, 2015
“Any party which takes credit for the rain must not be surprised if its opponents blame it for the drought.” Dwight Morrow, 1930
How the Environmentalists are Destroying California
By Abraham H. Miller, American Thinker, Apr 15, 2015
Getting Gas to Green: Enron & Environmentalists (1992/93)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Apr 15, 2015
Meet “Eco-Modernism”—The New Face of 21st Century Environmentalism
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 15, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Greenpeace’s Midlife Crisis
Familiar tactics against savvier corporate targets have made life harder for the environmental icon
By Peter Robison, and Monte Reel, Bloomberg, Apr 13, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Greenpeace entering the age of irrelevance?]
Why Environmentalists Will Eventually Hate Renewable Power
By Donald Kendal, Human Events, Apr 13, 2015
Other Scientific News
Abiotic methane discovered under the Arctic Ocean
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 14, 2015
Smithsonian’s Panama debate fueled by zircon dating
By Staff Writers, Panama City, Panama (SPX), Apr 14, 2015
Link to paper: Middle Miocene closure of the Central American Seaway
By Montes, et al, Science, Apr 10, 2015
Other News that May Be of Interest
The 60th anniversary of the polio vaccine: “It was seen as an absolute miracle and blessing”
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Apr 14, 2015
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
The environmental impact of Creation
By Ian Plimer, Catallaxy Files, Apr 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A bit of humor.]
Claim: Global warming will affect your taste in music
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 16, 2015
Climate-Change Reductio Ad Absurdum: Rep. Lee (D-CA) Damages Her Cause
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Apr 13, 2015
Claim: Economic collapse will prevent catastrophic global warming
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 14, 2015
Silliest climate paper ever?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 15, 2015
Link to paper: Adapting to a Warmer Ocean—Seasonal Shift of Baleen Whale Movements over Three Decades
By Ramp, Delue, Palsboll, Sears, and Hammmond, PLOS One, Mar 18, 2015